Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate of the container shipping industry continues the downward trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the decline of the US West route narrowed. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline, but the decline converged. For the future market, attention can be paid to the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. Considering that the futures price has reached a relatively short - term low, the decline of the futures price may converge or maintain a shock [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and temporarily wait and see in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.盘面回顾 (Market Review) - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points; the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors of the week came from the current cabin quotes of European routes and route adjustments [3]. 4.现货信息 (Spot Information) 4.1 运价 (Freight Rates) - As of August 11, the European route of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS), the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (the previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline of the freight rate on the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (the previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 15, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline, but the decline converged. In terms of different routes, the decline of North American routes narrowed, the SCFI US West route decreased by 3.51% month - on - month ( - 9.80% in the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 2.61% month - on - month ( - 10.68% in the previous week), and the decline of the SCFI European route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 7.19% ( - 4.39% in the previous week) [8]. 4.2 需求面 (Demand Side) - The content mainly shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes of the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes, but no specific summary data is provided [20][22][23]. 4.3 供应端 (Supply Side) - As of August 16, the idle capacity ratio of global container ships was 2.4%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 61,610 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 109,419 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 82.1 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 575.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 19.0 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 240.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 13.9 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 84.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 10.6 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 113.6 thousand TEU [27][30]. 5.价差解析 (Spread Analysis) - The current Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the month - on - month decline widened to 2.71%, reporting 2235.48 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1408.8 points on Monday. The basis slightly narrowed from the previous week and then slightly widened. The current cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on European routes continued to decline, leading the trend of futures prices. As the container shipping market is about to leave the traditional peak season, the support from demand gradually decreases. Based on the current spot freight rate situation, although it has declined significantly, it still maintains a relative level, so the basis is still at a relatively high level compared with the previous period. Traders are advised to temporarily observe [35][37]. - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations of container shipping European routes in the current week were as follows: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 710.2 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 320.8 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 389.4 points. Continuing the previous logic, as the 08 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the fluctuation range of the futures price has converged and is generally more stable. The 10 contract declined significantly during the week due to the further decline of the current cabin quotes and the influence of the capital side, resulting in a relatively significant increase in the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination during the week. Traders can temporarily wait and see [38].

Report Title - Commodity Strategy Weekly Report: August 18, 2025 - Oscillating and Waiting for the Wind [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the past week, as anti - involution varieties cooled down and volatility decreased, the market was fully digested, and the willpower of the remaining funds became more resolute, which is beneficial for the next round of market. The release of short - selling sentiment in non - anti - involution varieties also cleared some obstacles for the anti - involution varieties [3][5] - In the short term, it is bearish, and in the long term, it is bullish. The short - term bearish mainly shows as oscillating consolidation, and the anti - involution theme market is a long - term layout [4][5] - The short - selling power mainly comes from energy - related varieties due to the overall weakness of crude oil, but the overall valuation of these varieties is not high, and the space for further price decline is limited, so the short - selling power may soon turn from attack to defense [4] - In specific sector varieties, the outlook for oils and fats and black metals is bullish [3] Summary by Directory Market Situation - The anti - involution theme, affected by measures such as position limits and fee increases, has cooled down on the surface, and the hotspots have shifted to the hidden. Only after the short - selling power in the market is fully released will there be a smooth upward trend. Currently, the trading volume of leading varieties has decreased, along with the activity and capacity of funds. Polysilicon and coking coal were in a narrow - range oscillating consolidation stage this week [4] Sector and Variety Data Plate Fund Flow - The total capital is 9.883 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.292 billion (- 40.4%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.159 billion (36.5%), black metals had an inflow of 968 million (21.6%), energy had an outflow of 428 million (- 28.7%), chemicals had an inflow of 141 million (4.4%), feed and breeding had an outflow of 782 million (- 37.5%), oils and fats had an inflow of 823 million (18.3%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 76 million (4.6%) [9] Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 19.1%, and the inventory percentile is 60.5% [9] Energy and Chemical Weekly Data - Similar data is provided for energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 2.8%, and the inventory percentile is 48.7% [11] Agricultural Products Weekly Data - Data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 5.8%, and the inventory percentile is 29.2% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices showed a trend of stopping decline and adjusting after a sideways consolidation, but were continuously suppressed by the 5 - day moving average on the daily chart. The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages both declined, forming a bearish arrangement, confirming continuous downward pressure on the market [3]. - The US - Russia meeting did not reach a substantial agreement, but a preliminary consensus on a cease - fire in Ukraine was reached, and the US temporarily withdrew the threat of sanctions on Russian oil. This meeting was more of a "break - the - ice" move, releasing no bullish signals, leading to a lower opening of the overseas crude oil market and an increased risk of a mid - term breakdown [3]. - The expectation of a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine is rising. The US may provide security guarantees similar to Article 5 of NATO for Ukraine, and Russia may acquiesce, clearing the obstacles for a cease - fire agreement. Although the agreement has not been finalized, the direction of a rapid cooling of the situation is clear, the geopolitical risk level is decreasing, and the potential support for crude oil is continuously weakening [3]. - If a final cease - fire is achieved, the geopolitical premium since 2022 will face a systematic correction. Coupled with OPEC + turning to increasing production, the core support for the bulls will further erode [3]. - Fundamentally, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching, and the suppression of crude oil will gradually emerge. The risk of market surplus may become the main trading theme in the later period, and time is unfavorable to crude oil bulls. The current market has not fully reflected the fundamental bearish factors, and attention is still scattered by short - term events, but potential bearish risks need to be vigilant [3]. - In the medium and long term, the fundamental trend is clearly weakening, and the bearish orientation remains unchanged. Overall, the US - Russia meeting brought no substantial benefits, coupled with the weakening of geopolitical support and the accumulation of fundamental bearish factors, the risk of a mid - term breakdown of crude oil prices has intensified. Short - term developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation still need to be tracked, and in the medium and long term, the gradual pricing of fundamental bearish factors needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - On the 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting at the Elmendorf - Richardson Joint Military Base in Anchorage, Alaska. They did not give speeches at the beginning of the meeting. The meeting was expected to last 6 - 7 hours [6]. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, showing a significant increase for the second consecutive month, with the previous value revised up to 0.9%. The year - on - year increase in July retail sales reached 3.9%, and the real retail sales after inflation adjustment increased by 1.2% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month [7]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US President Trump in Washington. European leaders were invited to attend the "Trump - Zelensky meeting" next Monday. EU Commission President von der Leyen and German Chancellor Merz confirmed their attendance [7]. - Trump and European leaders discussed providing non - NATO but equivalent to Article 5 security guarantees for Ukraine [7]. - After the Trump - Putin meeting, it was stated that there is currently no plan to impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil, but this issue may be considered in two or three weeks [7]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 8 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 3.029 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 45,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 453,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 792,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 693,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.323 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 714,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 725,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 565,000 barrels [8]. - Crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, compared with an expected 96.8% and a previous 96.9% [8]. CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 815,102 lots, a decrease of 84,832 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,975,316 lots, a decrease of 6,284 lots compared with the previous trading day [9]. - The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 22,330 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 195,944 lots, an increase of 2,902 lots compared with the previous trading day [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a "wait-and-see" approach [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coking coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term fundamental aspect, the real estate market is continuously sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained for a long time. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is still pressure on ferroalloys [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, the price in Inner Mongolia's main production area is 5,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 5,600 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). For ferromanganese, in the northern production area of Inner Mongolia, the market price is 5,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the southern production area of Guangxi it is 5,900 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), and in the trading area of Jiangsu it is 5,900 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Cost and Profit - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi is 630 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The production cost of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5,352 yuan/ton, and that of ferromanganese in Ningxia is 5,942.08 yuan/ton (+23.24 yuan/ton). The profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia's production area is - 49 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 98 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton). The profit of ferromanganese in the northern region is - 58.5 yuan/ton (+39.64 yuan/ton), and in the southern region is - 417.15 yuan/ton (+8.71 yuan/ton) [2] 3.3 Supply - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises is 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output is 207,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, the supply of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large supply pressure [3] 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. However, the inventory accumulation of five major steel products restricts the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is limited. The steel billet inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large billet pressure. In July, the production of magnesium metal was 81,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand. The demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of ferrosilicon is 20,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and that of ferromanganese is 125,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% [3] 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 104,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52%, and the total inventory of ferrosilicon is 169,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferromanganese is 374,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total inventory of ferromanganese is 532,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [3]

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views Macro Perspective - In China, economic growth in July showed a marginal slowdown, but a package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. If economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [2]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the risk of a US economic downturn has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends, and Powell's speech may provide key guidance for subsequent monetary policies. In the short - term, the US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Equity Market - Last week, the stock index showed a volume - driven upward trend. Although there was no obvious positive fundamental drive, the market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to be in an upward - biased state, but trading should be cautious due to the lack of fundamental support [6]. Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, while alumina may show a weak - side shock, and cast aluminum alloy may also correct [9][13][14]. - **Base Metals**: Zinc prices are expected to be range - bound. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the ranges of [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan respectively. Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state. Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [18][21][23]. - **Black Metals**: Steel fundamentals are weakening, but there is still cost support. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are facing increasing supply pressure [30][31][37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices face a medium - term risk of breaking down due to the lack of positive news from the US - Russia meeting and the weakening of geopolitical support. LPG fundamentals remain loose. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand processing fees at low prices. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [41][44][47]. - **Other Commodities**: PVC remains in a weak state. Pure benzene and styrene show a double - de - stocking trend. Fuel oil is still weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [58][60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown. The US retail sales in July increased, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. The "Trump - Putin meeting" took place, and there are expectations for a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs in two weeks [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, economic data in July slowed down, but policies are being implemented. Overseas, the September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823 on the previous trading day, down 93 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1371, down 34 basis points [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US economic downturn risk is rising. The Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for observing policy trends. In the short - term, the US dollar index may fluctuate, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the stock index rose with reduced volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume [6]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index was driven by volume last week. Although there was no fundamental positive drive, market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to rise, but trading should be cautious [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market was under pressure. The increase in US PPI and inflation expectations cooled the interest - rate cut expectations [9]. - **Funds and Inventory**: Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased, while short - term non - commercial net long positions decreased. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed to different extents [10]. - **Core Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Jackson Hole meeting [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper futures contract rose slightly during the week and then fell, closing at around 79,000 yuan per ton. Inventories in different markets changed [12]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate or slightly strengthen. The restart of the Chilean mine has limited impact on prices [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [14]. - **Alumina**: Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The market may shift to cost - based pricing, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock - adjustment state [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum alloy. The futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,505 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [17]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc fundamentals remain unchanged, and prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel contracts showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the week [19]. - **Core Logic**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate in the [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan ranges respectively, with cost support [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin futures contract rose and then fell slightly, closing at 266,000 yuan per ton. Inventories were relatively stable [23]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the delay in the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines providing support [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and polysilicon futures fluctuated widely [24]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [26]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [27]. - **Core Logic**: Lead fundamentals are deadlocked, and prices are expected to be range - bound [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: The market showed a pattern of consolidation [29]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but there is cost support. The rebar 10 - contract is expected to have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil around 3350 [30]. - **Iron Ore** - **Core Logic**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is neutral, and the demand from molten iron provides support. The terminal demand has some problems in the rebar segment [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices fluctuated, and coke prices rose for the sixth round. The double - coking futures fluctuated widely [33]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to the changes in finished - product inventories. The supply of coking coal is in a tight - balance state, and coke supply has disturbing factors [33][34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed [35][36]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of ferroalloys is increasing, and the demand has certain support but also limitations. The prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices showed a stop - falling adjustment after sideways trading, with the US and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [39]. - **Core Logic**: The US - Russia meeting did not bring positive news, and the geopolitical support for crude oil weakened. The medium - term risk of price breakdown is increasing [41]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [42][43]. - **Core Logic**: LPG fundamentals remain loose, with the supply remaining high and the demand having a slight improvement [44]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices were range - bound, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to buy to expand PTA processing fees at low prices, as PTA processing fees are at a historical low [47]. - **MEG - Bottle - Grade Chips** - **Market Review**: MEG prices were range - bound, with changes in inventory and device operations [48]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [49][50]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: Methanol 09 contract prices changed, and the inventory in different ports increased [51]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract may gradually return to fundamental pricing. The best buying point for the 01 contract needs to be waited for [52]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [53]. - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand - end and cost - end changes [54]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: As the peak season approaches, PE demand is slowly recovering. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and the subsequent trend depends on the demand recovery [56]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: PVC supply, demand, export, inventory, and price data changed [57]. - **Core Logic**: PVC remains in a weak state, with the threat of large - scale delivery in August and weak fundamentals [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased [60][61]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound, and styrene's supply surplus has decreased. Short - term unilateral short - selling of styrene should be cautious [60][62]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened [64][65]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [66]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. The demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortages [66]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [67]. - **Core Logic**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15700 - 16100, with cost support and inventory pressure [69].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non-ferrous metals sector. Recently, macro factors have had limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, driving up short-term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,820 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino-US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed, gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 266,820 yuan/ton, 266,820 yuan/ton, and 267,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,610 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars or 0.52% daily. The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.06, up 0.04 or 0.5% [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, solder bars (60A and 63A), and lead-free solder have weekly declines ranging from -0.58% to -0.78% [13]. Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,161.2 yuan/ton, down 2.1% daily. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [15]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,426 tons, up 0.05% daily. The LME tin inventory is 1,830 tons, up 2.81% daily [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices rose slightly during the week and then fell, which was basically in line with expectations. Macroeconomic conditions remained stable, and the US retail sales data for July met expectations. The El Teniente copper mine in Chile restarted after a week of repairs, having a limited impact on copper prices. In the coming week, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate and may be slightly stronger. The lower support level for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton. The release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting are expected to have a limited impact on copper prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,060 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level for copper prices is raised [4][5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,040 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the LME copper 3M is 9,760 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars (-0.17%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.2, up 0.06 (0.74%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan (-0.32%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 79,170 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan (-0.37%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan (-0.48%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (-0.38%) [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current tax - included scrap price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-2.66%); the reasonable tax - included scrap price difference is 1,492.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3 yuan (-0.02%); the tax - included price advantage is - 394.39 yuan/ton, down 29.7 yuan (8.14%) [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 24,560 tons, up 126 tons (0.52%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 7,422 tons, with no change [21] Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 267,195 tons, up 3,055 tons (1.16%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data - The copper import profit is 144.92 yuan/ton, up 100.37 yuan (225.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.33 US dollars (-0.87%) [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol has been mainly fluctuating within a range. The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). Overall, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is basically balanced, lacking obvious drivers, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. - The prices of PX - PTA have been maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee has been at a historical low. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of PX - PTA is not significant, mainly following the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, the structural contradiction between PX and PTA needs to be alleviated through additional PTA maintenance. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee on dips [5][6]. Summary by Directory MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports has reached 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 3 tons [1][2]. - **Device**: Sheng Hong's 1.9 million - ton device restarted after a short - term shutdown; Zhe Petrochemical's Phase II Line 1 with a capacity of 800,000 tons restarted and produced; Shenhua Yulin's 400,000 - ton device reduced its load for maintenance. Overseas, Saudi Sharq3's 550,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). The terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, with the load rising to 84.3% (+2.3%). The subsequent supply is expected to increase, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. The PXN has shrunk to 253 (-8), and the PX - MX has recovered to 119.5 (+3) [5]. - **PTA**: The supply and demand of PTA lack obvious drivers, and the price has been fluctuating within a range. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has been at a low level, and there is a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in August. The demand side has seen an increase in the polyester load, and the terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [5][6]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY have increased, while the prices of staple fibers, chips, and bottle chips have decreased slightly. The processing fees of filaments and bottle chips have been repaired [10]. - **Load**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%), and the loads of filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips have also increased to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of filaments has decreased, while the inventory of staple fibers has increased slightly. The inventory of bottle chips has remained stable [10]. Device Operation - **MEG Device**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load - adjustments. Overseas, many MEG devices have also been shut down or are under maintenance [16]. - **PX Device**: Some PX devices in the Chinese mainland and overseas have been shut down for maintenance, and some have restarted [17]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices in the Chinese mainland have been shut down, reduced their loads, or restarted [18]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, supply, demand, and inventory data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **PX - TA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, supply, consumption, and inventory data of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025 [14].

南华期货钢材（螺纹钢、热卷）周报 ----钢材基本面走弱 2025/08/17 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 周度盘面回顾：上半周，受宁德锂矿停产、唐山轧材厂及烧结环节因阅兵限产的消息影响，以及煤矿安全会 议召开前的乐观预期推动，市场炒作情绪升温，盘面震荡上行；下半周，随着煤矿会议落幕且市场认为影响 不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓消息释放，炒作情绪显著降温，加之钢材本周数据表现疲软、累库节奏加快，盘面 呈现震荡下行。 供需存：供增需减，库存累积加速 供给：本周钢厂铁水与废钢日耗均小幅增长，意味着粗钢产量呈增加态势；从排产检修情况来看，后续铁水 产量仍将维持高位震荡，暂无明显减产迹象。利润方面，当前长流程钢厂利润依旧可观，短流程钢厂虽部分 地区利润已低于谷电利润，但下浮幅度有限，钢厂自主减产动力不足。政策层面，目前有部分地区传出烧结 限产消息，且 8 月 20 日 - 9 月 6 日唐山独立轧钢企业将因环保要求停产，后续高炉是否会受影响仍需进一步 跟踪，不过轧材厂和烧结限产确实可能对产量产生一定影响。 需求：本周五大材表需呈现明显环比下滑，其中螺 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].