Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——成材表需超季节性走弱，旺季需求表现待验证 2025/08/15 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周产地焦煤整体波动不大，部分煤种下调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面震荡，安泽低硫主焦报价 1470-1480元/吨，口岸蒙5#原煤1000元/吨左右波动。周内焦炭现货6轮提涨落地，即期焦化利润环比修复。 本周双焦盘面宽幅震荡，9-1价差底部震荡，JM9-1月差-149.5(+8)，J9-1月差-76.5(+4)。 供需平衡表 . | 焦煤周度平衡表 (万吨) | Week18 | Week19 | Week20 | Week21 | Week22 | Week23 | Week24 | Week25 | Week26 | Week27 | Week28 | Week29 | Week30 | Week31 | Week32 | Week33 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress is lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts and leading to fluctuations in raw sugar prices. However, data from early July shows an acceleration in production progress and a significant increase in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio. In China, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports has strengthened import expectations, causing futures prices to quickly decline to close the profit window [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850. Also, selling call options (SR511C5800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 can reduce costs and lock in the selling price of spot sugar [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5650 - 5700. Selling put options (SR511P5500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot sugar [3]. Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season suppress sugar prices. Brazil's slower - than - usual production progress and subsequent acceleration, along with changes in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio, affect raw sugar prices. The opening of the out - of - quota import profit window in China leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. Bullish Factors - As of the end of July, cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. Industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons. In Yunnan, cumulative sugar sales reached 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 80.68%, a 0.7% increase [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 sugar season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar season to the first half of July, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 256.14 billion tons, a 9.61% year - on - year decrease. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio was 51.58%, a 2.69 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - In June, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - Trump stated that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again, and PepsiCo is also willing to launch sugar - containing cola if there is consumer demand [7]. Bearish Factors - During the 2024/25 sugar season in Guangxi, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 485.954 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 billion tons, while the mixed - sugar production was 646.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a 1.22 - percentage - point increase [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons during the 25/26 sugar season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season, with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, China's sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [9]. - In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 49.823 billion tons, a 14.77% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a 15.07% year - on - year increase [9]. - In July, Guangxi's single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons, and Yunnan's industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [9]. Price and Spread Information - **Base - difference Changes**: On August 14, 2025, the base - difference between Nanning and SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. The base - difference between Kunming and SR01 was 201, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 44 [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5664, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. The spread between SR01 and SR05 was 40, with a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly decrease of 2 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5980, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30. The price difference between Nanning and Liuzhou was - 20, with no daily or weekly change [11]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly increase of 195. The out - of - quota import price was 5796, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 253 [12].

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/08/15 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7600-8400 | 10.5% | 0.1% | 【利多解读 】 1、产区库存处于历史低位，产区期初库存偏低同时前期去库速度大于往年，导致随着时间推移产区库存持续 下降，对盘面起到依托作用。 2、产地不稳定的天气因素引发资金关注，有调研数据报告显示，西北产区坐果情况不佳，可能有较大减产。 source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Scrap Steel Industry Weekly Report - Focus on Subsequent Changes in Steel Mill Profits [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yan Zhini [1] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022076 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the scrap steel market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a decline in inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio, driving prices up slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are healthy, with strong support at the bottom, but the accumulation of steel inventory may suppress the upward movement of steel prices, and steel mill profits have also shrunk, so their willingness to raise scrap steel prices is low. It is expected that scrap steel prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future, and the spread between rebar and scrap steel may further narrow [3]. Summary by Directory Supply - This week, the scrap steel arrivals at 25 steel mills were 511,700 tons (+27,400 tons), and the average daily arrivals at Shagang were 11,800 tons (-2,700 tons) [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the scrap steel arrivals at 255 steel mills were 549,300 tons, a weekly increase of 54,841 tons; the arrivals at 132 long - process steel mills were 270,000 tons, a weekly increase of 18,891 tons; the arrivals at 89 short - process steel mills were 177,050 tons, a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [7]. Demand - This week, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills was 557,900 tons (+6,100 tons), with an increase in both long - and short - process steel mills [2]. - From August 7 to August 14, 2025, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills increased by 6,128 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it increased by 1,078 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it increased by 7,700 tons [8]. Inventory - The inventory at national processing bases decreased slightly, while the arrivals at steel mills increased. This may be due to the increase in the fear of price drops among bases after the decline in the futures market in the second half of the week, leading to the release of goods [2]. - This week, the scrap steel inventory at steel mills decreased. On August 14, 2025, the scrap steel inventory at 255 steel mills was 4,532,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,180 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it was 2,187,450 tons, a weekly decrease of 74,080 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it was 1,236,850 tons, a weekly decrease of 53,200 tons [2][8]. - The scrap steel social inventory decreased across the country. On August 15, 2025, the national scrap steel social inventory was 416,350 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,320 tons [9]. Price and Spread - The national Fubao comprehensive price index of scrap steel increased slightly. On August 14, 2025, the national non - tax - included scrap steel price index was 2,258.2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, the iron - scrap spread slightly increased, and the rebar - scrap spread significantly decreased, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel compared to hot metal has recovered, but from a profit perspective, the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap steel has decreased, and the profits of electric arc furnaces have shrunk [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the iron - scrap spread was - 111 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap spread in East China (including tax) was 769 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton [9]. Steel Mill Profits - This week, the profits of both long - and short - process steel mills shrank. The profits of long - process large - scale steel products still ranged from 100 to 200 yuan. The profits of short - process steel mills shrank in many regions, with only an increase in North China. Among electric arc furnaces, there were still off - peak electricity profits in Hebei and Sichuan, while there were no off - peak electricity profits in Fujian, Guangdong, Hubei, and Jiangsu, but the decline was not significant, not reaching the level of significant production cuts in electric arc furnaces [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic growth rate in China showed a marginal slowdown in July, but there's no need for excessive concern as a package of stable - economy policies are gradually taking effect, and more consumption - promotion policies are expected. The uncertainty of a September interest rate cut in the US remains, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [1]. Summary of Each Section 1. Domestic Economic Growth Slowdown in July 1.1 Economic Growth Slowdown in July - In July, economic data indicated a marginal slowdown in economic growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The marginal decline in the production side in July was affected by seasonal factors, the "anti - involution" policy, and extreme weather. The decline in consumption growth might be related to the early release of some demand by the trade - in policy, and the consumption confidence index has not significantly recovered. Investment in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure all showed a marginal downward trend, with decreases of 1.3, 0.8, and 1.61 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the growth rates dropped to 6.2%, - 12%, and 9.29% [3]. 1.2 Decision - makers' Consumption - Promotion Policies - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans, and the Ministry of Finance and eight other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy on Loans to Service - Industry Business Entities [7]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has a one - year implementation period, covering various consumer areas. It will promote the total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the specific effect is difficult to measure, and its signaling significance is relatively strong. The service - industry business entity loan interest subsidy policy provides a 1 - percentage - point annual interest subsidy for eligible service - industry business entities, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per household, mainly benefiting service - industry consumption [8]. 1.3 Uncertainty of a September Interest Rate Cut - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations, while the core CPI reached the highest level since February. The PPI in July showed an unexpected performance, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. Whether the US will cut interest rates in September remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [14]. 2. Key Economic Data and Events 2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the public solicitation of opinions on the Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China, the simplification of account - opening materials for overseas central - bank - type institutions, and the issuance of consumption - loan and service - industry business - entity loan interest subsidy policies [17]. - Key economic data: Since the start of the summer travel season, the national railway has sent 599 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. In July, automobile production and sales decreased by 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. China's July financial data showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the new social financing in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [20]. 2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, Trump's team included several people in the list of candidates for the Fed Chair. The US debt exceeded 37 trillion US dollars for the first time. The US CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a five - month high. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut, but the unexpected PPI data dampened the enthusiasm [21][23]. - In Europe, German government said European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky would talk to Trump, and the EU hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month [25]. - Regarding tariffs, Trump stated that gold would not be taxed, India hopes to continue bilateral trade negotiations, and Brazil has sued the US over tariff measures [26]. - Geopolitically, Iraq and Iran signed a security memorandum, Trump hopes to meet Putin again, and there are discussions about a possible new arms agreement between the US and Russia [27]. 3. Key Events and Data to be Focused on Next Week - Key events and data include the US 6 - month Treasury bill auction rate on August 18, China's central bank's 1 - year LPR on August 20, the eurozone CPI on August 20, the US initial jobless claims on August 21, and the US existing - home sales annualized month - on - month on August 21 [28]. 4. Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes No specific summary of asset price changes is provided in the text, only charts of domestic stock indexes, bond markets, and various commodity indexes are presented.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and funds shortage, failing to effectively release, resulting in a weaker short - term peak season. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium and long term, the demand will improve as the construction season approaches in autumn and the funds situation eases [2]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, alleviating the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost [2]. - The unilateral price of asphalt has weakly corrected, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. - On August 15, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3620 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 140 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 60 yuan from the previous week [1][5][8]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The supply of asphalt is stable, but demand is affected by rainfall and funds shortage. The factory - warehouse pressure is small, but the social - warehouse destocking is slow, and speculative demand has weakened. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened, and the crack spread remains high [2]. 3.4利多解读 - The low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices [3]. - The demand is in the seasonal peak season [7]. - The low - level start - up and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [7]. - The atmosphere of anti - involution has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [7]. 3.5利空解读 - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan Merey crude oil [7]. - The short - term plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]. - The slowdown of social - warehouse destocking and the weakening of the basis [7]. - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the start - up rate [7].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Nanhua Crude Oil Market Daily - Contracting Volume Rebound on the Disk, US-Russia Talks a Key Variable [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yang Xinyue (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0022518) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - As the US-Russia talks approach, geopolitical expectations have cooled, and the overnight market rebounded slightly, mainly due to short covering, indicating that shorts chose to take profits and avoid potential geopolitical risks if the talks go poorly. Fundamentals will dominate the market, with seasonal demand weakening and the risk of supply surplus increasing, so time is bearish for crude oil, and the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the US-Russia talks at 3:30 am Beijing time on Saturday [3]. Group 3: Long-Short Analysis Short-term Long-Short Game - In the short term, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, with the daily line closing above the 5-day moving average, and the downward pressure has marginally eased. The core driver is short covering ahead of the "Trump meeting" to lock in profits and avoid geopolitical risks, leading to a rebound on contracting volume. However, this rebound has not disrupted the daily-level downward trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the 5-day moving average can be effectively stabilized. The overlapping area of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forms a key resistance, and the divergence between volume and price will increase the risk of a mid-term breakdown [4]. US-Russia Talks as a Key Variable for the Mid-term Direction - The market anticipates a neutral to bearish outcome of the talks. If the talks lead to a thaw between the US and Russia (such as paving the way for a tripartite meeting) and no tense news is released, crude oil will lose geopolitical support. If the geopolitical situation cools down to a ceasefire, the previous geopolitical premium will gradually correct, and the market will weaken. Only if the talks deteriorate unexpectedly (such as imposing secondary tariffs on Russia and strengthening sanctions) could it trigger a re-pricing of geopolitical risks, driving a rebound and consolidating the July trading range, which is the only clear short-term bullish scenario [5]. Fundamental Weakening as a Long-term Constraint - The current fundamentals have clearly weakened. On the demand side, as the peak summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches its turning point, the marginal downward pressure will become more apparent. On the supply side, the risk of surplus is rising, and the market's expectation of the supply-demand gap has shifted from a tight balance to a loose one, which may continue to dominate trading. Moreover, the current market has not fully priced in the fundamental bearishness, and after short-term event-driven disturbances subside, the fundamental negatives may gradually be priced in, leading to a potential catch-up decline [6]. Significant Risk of Medium- to Long-term Valuation Decline - Without new geopolitical premiums, crude oil will return to fundamental-driven trading, and Brent crude is likely to decline to the $60 - $65 per barrel range in the medium term, which corresponds to a reasonable valuation center under the expectation of a loose supply-demand balance. Overall, time is unfavorable for bulls [7]. Factors - Bullish factors: Short-term technical repair signals, short covering by funds, and potential geopolitical risk pricing opportunities [8] - Bearish factors: Bearish pricing expectations for the US-Russia talks and fundamental weakening pressure [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics US-Russia Talks - Russia has confirmed that the "Putin-Trump meeting" will be held at a US military base in Alaska. Sources said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff, Russian Finance Minister, Russian Defense Minister, and Russian presidential envoy and head of the sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev are expected to attend the "Trump-Putin meeting" in Alaska on Friday (Saturday morning Beijing time). Kremlin aide Ushakov said that Putin and Trump will hold a one-on-one meeting with an interpreter, and the summit will discuss sensitive issues. Russian President Putin said that the US is making positive efforts to end the conflict and promote a nuclear arms control agreement. If the two countries reach an agreement in the field of nuclear arms control, peace between Russia and the US and in the wider world will be strengthened. US President Trump said that in his second meeting with Putin, Zelensky will be more important, and he believes that Putin and Zelensky will achieve peace [9]. Russian Policy - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak supports extending the gasoline export ban until September, stating that the domestic fuel supply is sufficient [9]. EIA Natural Gas Report - As of the week ending August 8, the total US natural gas inventory was 318.6 billion cubic feet, an increase of 56 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 79 billion cubic feet from the same period last year (a year-on-year decline of 2.4%), and an increase of 19.6 billion cubic feet (a 6.6% increase) compared to the 5-year average [10]. Indian Oil Imports - Sources said that India's BPCL has awarded a tender for US oil imports from September to March next year to trader Glencore. Starting from September, Glencore will supply 2 million barrels of WTI Midland crude oil per month. An executive of India's Bharat Petroleum said that last month's imports of Russian crude oil were affected by changes in discounts. Without sanctions, the company hopes to maintain the proportion of processed Russian crude oil at 33% - 35% [10]. Group 5: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - The table shows the prices and spreads of various crude oils on August 15, 2025, August 14, 2025, and August 8, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 13.09 points, a 0.52% increase. The most influential varieties were palm oil and soda ash. Palm oil's variety index had a 5.11% change and a 0.23% contribution, while soda ash's variety index had a 4.73% change and a 0.15% contribution [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 13.09 points, a 0.36% increase. The most influential varieties were soda ash and caustic soda, with contribution degrees of 0.2% and 0.13% respectively [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 28.41 points, a 0.44% increase. The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, with a contribution of 0.45% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 9.95 points, a 0.59% increase. The most influential variety was soda ash, with a contribution of 0.29% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 13.75 points, a 1.25% increase. The most influential variety was palm oil, with a contribution of 0.68% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Weekly Data | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2536.21 | 2523.12 | 13.09 | 0.52% | 2556.20 | 2523.12 | 33.08 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1253.84 | 1269.49 | -15.65 | -1.23% | 1269.49 | 1253.13 | 16.36 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3658.04 | 3644.95 | 13.09 | 0.36% | 3713.92 | 3644.95 | 68.97 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6466.21 | 6437.79 | 28.41 | 0.44% | 6553.85 | 6437.79 | 116.06 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1687.68 | 1677.73 | 9.95 | 0.59% | 1709.71 | 1677.73 | 31.98 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1714.49 | 1697.73 | 16.76 | 0.99% | 1724.76 | 1697.73 | 27.03 | | Black Index NHFI | 2589.38 | 2596.44 | -7.06 | -0.27% | 2663.73 | 2582.71 | 81.02 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAl | 1112.30 | 1098.55 | 13.75 | 1.25% | 1122.89 | 1098.55 | 24.33 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1193.84 | 1186.42 | 7.42 | 0.63% | 1207.13 | 1186.42 | 20.71 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1064.36 | 1066.74 | -2.38 | -0.22% | 1084.31 | 1058.07 | 26.23 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 948.97 | 947.25 | 1.72 | 0.18% | 956.95 | 945.19 | 11.76 | | Coal - based Chemical Engineering Consumption NHCCI | 1033.41 | 1042.65 | -9.24 | -0.89% | 1051.86 | 1033.41 | 18.45 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1072.04 | 1071.66 | 0.37 | 0.03% | 1109.06 | 1067.01 | 42.05 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 761.44 | 764.49 | -3.05 | -0.40% | 777.95 | 761.44 | 16.52 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1284.28 | 1256.32 | 27.97 | 2.23% | 1302.40 | 1256.32 | 46.08 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 911.96 | 896.92 | 15.04 | 1.68% | 911.96 | 896.92 | 15.04 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength - Weakness Arbitrage Data The report provides the current value, previous value, change, and ranking of various variety index ratios, such as the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index, the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index, etc. [6] 3.3 Contribution Degree of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate The report shows the average position - holding volume this week, the环比 increase rate, the position - holding volume ratio, and the contribution degree of each futures variety to the index change rate, including soybean meal, rebar, fuel oil, etc. [8] 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indexes - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3658.04 this week, up 0.36%. The most influential varieties were soda ash, caustic soda, natural rubber, etc. [10] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6466.21 this week, up 0.44%. The most influential varieties were lithium carbonate, copper, and iron ore [10]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1687.68 this week, up 0.59%. The most influential varieties were soda ash, caustic soda, and natural rubber [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1112.30 this week, up 1.25%. The most influential varieties were palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2589.38 this week, down 0.27%. The most influential varieties were rebar, coke, and stainless steel [11]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1714.49 this week, up 0.99%. The most influential varieties were lithium carbonate, copper, and aluminum [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continued to fluctuate. As of the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2604 contract, the prices of the remaining contracts slightly rebounded. Some contracts have reached short - term lows, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the trading sentiment was relatively calm. Affected by geopolitical risks, the futures prices continued a slight upward trend. The decline of the SCFI European Line has widened, and it is expected that the EC will generally continue to fluctuate or return to a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, without sudden events, based on fundamental considerations, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For position management, if one has obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booking volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot position, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the intensity of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot position, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to determine the booking cost in advance [1]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 151.68 | 0.10 | - 12.80 | | EC2510 | 861.88 | - 14.10 | 62.40 | | EC2512 | 472.48 | - 39.70 | - 3.00 | | EC2602 | 705.38 | - 8.70 | 0.30 | | EC2604 | 903.48 | 3.00 | 21.00 | | EC2606 | 747.98 | 7.50 | - 59.38 | [4][6] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2083.8 | 0.00% | 0.62% | | EC2510 | 1373.6 | 1.04% | - 4.35% | | EC2512 | 1763.0 | 2.30% | 0.17% | | EC2602 | 1530.1 | 0.57% | - 0.02% | | EC2604 | 1332.0 | - 0.69% | - 1.55% | | EC2606 | 1487.5 | - 0.50% | - 0.20% | [6] | Spread | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 - 2512 | 320.8 | - 39.8 | 9.8 | | EC2512 - 2604 | 431.0 | 42.7 | 21.2 | | EC2604 - 2508 | - 751.8 | - 2.9 | - 22.1 | | EC2508 - 2510 | 710.2 | - 39.8 | 75.2 | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 389.4 | - 25.6 | - 65.4 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 232.9 | 31 | - 9.2 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1405, an increase of $15 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2370, an increase of $30 compared to the previous period [8]. - In mid - to late August, for some sailings of ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the opening quote for 20GP was $1634, a decrease of $130 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2543, a decrease of $200 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.71% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.25% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 1820 | 1961 | - 141 | - 7.19% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 1759 | 1823 | - 64 | - 3.51% | | XSI: European Line ($/FEU) | 3181 | 3202 | - 21 | - 0.66% | | XSI: US West Line ($/FEU) | 1913 | 1931 | - 18 | - 0.9% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2135 | 2141 | - 6 | - 0.28% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.538 | 0.486 | 0.052 | 0.437 | | Shanghai Port | 1.780 | 1.386 | 0.394 | 1.365 | | Yantian Port | 0.921 | 1.034 | - 0.113 | 0.869 | | Singapore Port | 1.158 | 0.620 | 0.538 | 0.535 | | Jakarta Port | 1.684 | 1.533 | 0.151 | 2.645 | | Long Beach Port | 1.551 | 1.829 | - 0.278 | 1.562 | | Savannah Port | 1.606 | 1.267 | 0.339 | 1.365 | [16] Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports | Ship Type | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000 + | 15.916 | 15.952 | - 0.036 | 15.988 | | 3000 + | 15.018 | 15.031 | - 0.013 | 15.106 | | 1000 + | 13.37 | 13.295 | 0.075 | 13.59 | | Ships waiting at Suez Canal ports | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | [25]