Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and strengthening trend this week, in line with previous expectations. Looking ahead to the next month, the core driving logic for lithium carbonate futures prices will focus on factors such as the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo mine at the end of October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellations in November, and unexpectedly high downstream demand [1]. - Considering multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides, it is expected that lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate within the range of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, showing a slightly upward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The release of salt lake production capacity will increase lithium salt supply. If the resumption of production at "Jianxiaowo" exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the supply scale [1]. - Demand side: Current downstream demand is unexpectedly high, and some merchants are reluctant to sell. By the end of the year, downstream lithium battery material enterprises' demand is expected to maintain a month - on - month growth trend, which is expected to drive the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and support futures prices [1]. - Near - term trading logic (before early November): It includes factors such as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts for a week, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellations in November, unexpectedly high downstream demand in October, and a continuous decline in lithium ore inventory [5]. - Long - term trading logic (after early November): It involves the resumption progress of the Ningde Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, the progress of seven lithium mines in Jiangxi, downstream production schedules in November, and the impact of relevant policies on the new energy industry [4][6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Volatile and strengthening. - **Price range**: Volatile range: 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton; Low - level range: 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton; High - level range: 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton. - **Strategies**: Unilateral strategy: Buy long positions in LC2512 and LC2601 at low - level ranges; Basis strategy: Positive arbitrage; Spread strategy: Positive arbitrage for LC2601 - LC2605; Option strategy: Sell LC2512 - P - 70000 options and buy LC2601 - C - 80000 [7]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Lithium battery enterprises' risk management strategies**: Different strategies are proposed for procurement management, sales management, and inventory management, including the use of futures and options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [8]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive information**: Projects such as the partial production of the Badar 10GWh lithium iron phosphate battery cell and intelligent energy storage system project and the shipment of the first batch of qualified products from Guizhou Phosphate Group's 50,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate device [9]. - **Negative information**: The cancellation of the Jilin Lewei Zhihui Kashi region's 100MW/400MWh independent energy storage power station project and the shipment of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Important events and data announcements include the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, China's total retail sales of consumer goods, and the unemployment rate [12]. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trends**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices showed a volatile and strengthening trend. The weighted index contract closed at 75,754 yuan/ton on Friday, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87%. The trading volume was about 755,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 69.50%. The open interest was about 705,700 lots, an increase of 24,000 lots week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts was 30,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11,900 lots [17]. - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility has been continuously decreasing, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options has also decreased, indicating that market participants' expectations of future price fluctuations have cooled. The option open interest PCR shows that the overall market sentiment is bullish [19]. - **Capital trends**: The current open interest shows a slight weakening sign, with no obvious trend. - **Spread structure**: The current term structure of lithium carbonate futures shows a contango structure. In the short term, there is a possibility of a temporary back structure, but in the long term, the term structure is likely to return to and maintain a contango structure [24][25]. - **Basis structure**: This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract weakened significantly. Historically, there is a relatively high probability that the basis will strengthen after the holiday at the current basis level [31]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The report provides price data for various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, along with their weekly and monthly price changes [33][34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Due to strong market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries recently, the production and operation of enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain, from upstream lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to downstream cathode material manufacturers, have improved, and overall profits show signs of marginal strengthening [35]. 4.2 Import and Export Profits - This week, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable, and import profits showed a marginal stabilizing trend. Meanwhile, export profits of lithium hydroxide also increased [38]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic mine production**: Data on the production of sample pyroxene mines and lithium mica mines in China are presented [40][41]. - **Overseas mine imports**: Information on lithium concentrate imports by country is provided [43]. - **Lithium ore inventory**: Domestic lithium ore inventory has decreased this week, including the total available inventory, inventory of traders, and port inventory [45]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium Salt Supply - **Lithium carbonate supply**: The overall production of sample enterprises has increased, with different production lines showing varying degrees of change in production and operating rates [47]. - **Lithium carbonate net exports**: Data on the seasonal net exports of lithium carbonate are presented [62]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased this week, including inventory in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other channels [63]. - **Lithium hydroxide supply**: Data on the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by different processes are provided [70][71]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - **Material factory production**: The production and operating rates of various battery materials, such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium, have changed to different extents [75]. - **Material factory inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory of various battery materials are provided [92][95]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **Power cell production**: China's power cell production has increased this week, with different types of power cells showing different growth rates [96]. - **Lithium battery installation volume**: Data on China's lithium battery installation volume are presented [100]. 5.5 New Energy Vehicles - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, have changed to different extents. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic passenger cars has decreased slightly [102][105]. - **Automobile inventory**: Data on the domestic automobile dealer inventory warning index are provided [114]. 5.6 Energy Storage - Data on the total scale of energy storage bid - winning power and capacity are presented, showing an upward trend [116].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current cotton harvest in Xinjiang is over halfway, with the northern region in the later stage and the southern region progressing more slowly. As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative national notarized inspection volume of new - season cotton is 56.9 million tons. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased due to the resurgence of Sino - US tariff policy fluctuations, but the purchase price in some southern Xinjiang areas remains firm [1]. - In the short - term, although the increase in production expectation has been slightly revised, the overall output is still high, and the downstream peak season demand is weakening, so the upward driving force of cotton prices is insufficient. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. - The trading strategy suggests a wide - range shock for cotton prices. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The progress of cotton picking in Xinjiang is accelerating. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased, but it is still relatively firm in southern Xinjiang. The concentrated listing of new cotton in late October will put pressure on cotton prices. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream is weakening, but spinning mills still have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton stocks [1]. - In the short - term, the purchase price of new cotton is firm, but the overall output is high, and the downstream demand is weakening. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. 1.2 Transaction - type Strategy Recommendations - The cotton price is expected to fluctuate widely. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of cotton in the near - term is 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, enterprises with high inventory can short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low inventory can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: The closing prices of Zheng cotton 01, 05, and 09 are 13,335, 13,390, and 13,565 respectively, with weekly increases of 10, 15, and 15, and increases of 0.08%, 0.11%, and 0.11% respectively. - Spot data: The prices of CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B are 14,679, 12,844, and 14,964 respectively, with decreases of - 96, - 88, and - 75, and decreases of - 0.65%, - 0.68%, and - 0.5% respectively [21]. - Spread data: The CF1 - 5 spread is - 55, the CF5 - 9 spread is - 175, and the CF9 - 1 spread is 230. - Import price: The prices of FC Index M and FCY Index C32s are 12,851 and 21,110 respectively, with decreases of - 86 and - 65, and decreases of - 0.66% and - 0.31% respectively. - Cotton yarn data: The closing price of futures is 19,470, with a weekly increase of 95 and an increase of 0.49%. The spot price is 20,440, with a decrease of - 20 and a decrease of - 0.1% [23]. Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of October 10, the national new cotton picking progress is 32.6%, the national delivery rate is 73.1%. On October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang is 6.17 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg [24]. - Bearish information: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports are 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be slightly revised up to 4.077 million tons [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - In Xinjiang, pay attention to the change in the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the final output of Xinjiang cotton. Due to the US government shutdown, pay attention to the release of the USDA report, as well as the growth and export of US cotton [29]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zheng cotton oscillated this week. After a decline at the beginning of the week, the trading volume increased, and the capital entered the market, leading to a slight rebound in cotton prices. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. The near - term contracts are weak due to the increase in supply and hedging pressure, while the far - term contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year [34]. - Basis structure: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down this week, and the basis has slightly declined. The spot price of the same quality has a lower basis of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and most sales basis quotes are CF01 + 1200 - 1350 [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - With the listing of new cotton, the arrival price of cotton has continued to decline, while the cotton yarn price has remained stable, so the spinning profit of domestic spinning mills has been significantly repaired [39]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is tight. The issuance of the additional quota has limited impact on the market, and the import profit of foreign cotton has rebounded slightly recently [42]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - season Xinjiang cotton is gradually being listed, and the high - yield pattern is basically established. However, the yield in some southern Xinjiang areas is lower than expected, and the lint percentage is low, so the increase in production may be narrowed. It is estimated that the new - season cotton import volume is 1.1 million tons, and the probability of further increasing the sliding - duty quota is low. The domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The export of Malaysian palm oil is better than expected, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is slow, the supply in the producing areas is generally tight, and the optimistic demand for B50 next year supports the quotes in the producing areas [2]. - The U.S. energy policy lacks clear guidance, and the U.S. government shutdown has led to high market volatility and strong uncertainty. Although the domestic oil inventory is at a high level, the demand in the fourth quarter provides support. Under the uncertain trade conditions between China, the U.S., and Canada, the raw material supply pressure is limited. The oil inventory is decreasing, and the downside space is limited. In the short - term, a volatile approach should be adopted for the strategy, and attention can be paid to the entry opportunities after the stabilization of palm oil [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8700 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.4%. For rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10500 yuan/ton, with a volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1%. For palm oil, it is 9000 - 9900 yuan/ton, with a volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the oil inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, traders can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Refinery Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be carried out according to orders, refineries can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, oil mills can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. Market Data Palm Oil - Palm oil 01 is at 9308 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change, palm oil 05 is at 9264 yuan/ton with a 0.06% change, and palm oil 09 is at 8946 yuan/ton with a - 0.11% change. BMD palm oil主力 is at 4559 ringgit/ton with a 0.86% change. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9210 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase, and the basis is - 122 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease. POGO is at 522.239 dollars/ton with a - 1.168 - dollar decrease, and the international soybean - palm oil spread is 29.5 dollars/ton with a 24.62 - dollar increase [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01 is at 8256 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% change, soybean oil 05 is at 8042 yuan/ton with a - 1.06% change, and soybean oil 09 is at 7946 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.85 cents/pound with a 0.04% change. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8500 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the basis is 204 yuan/ton with a 26 - yuan increase. BOHO (weekly) is at 48.482 dollars/barrel with a - 13.5728 - dollar decrease, and the domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 620 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [14]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9935 yuan/ton with no change, rapeseed oil 05 is at 9494 yuan/ton with no change, and rapeseed oil 09 is at 9402 yuan/ton with no change. ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month is at 636.5 Canadian dollars/ton with a 2.2 - Canadian - dollar increase. The price of East China rapeseed oil is 10120 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease, and the basis is 235 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase. Brent crude oil主力 is at 60.73 dollars/barrel with no change, and the domestic first - grade soybean oil - rapeseed oil spread is 1600 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [18]. Market News Bullish News - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 is 606292 tons, a 49.8% increase compared to the same period last month [4]. - The U.S. NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year - on - year, far exceeding market expectations [4]. - The Canadian canola export volume in the week ending October 12 increased by 97.8% to 159200 tons compared to the previous week [4]. Bearish News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is expected to be 18 million hectares, unchanged from the previous estimate and an 8.4% increase from the previous year. The 2025/26 planting area is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [6]. - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [6]. - The sales pace of Argentine soybeans has slowed down. As of October 8, the pre - sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 37.54 million tons, and the pre - sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 3.11 million tons [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the return of long - shut small plants, and import deals from Europe to China. However, downstream demand is weak, with a high probability of the peak season being uneventful this year, resulting in a persistent inventory build - up pattern. The price of domestic pure benzene is likely to fall rather than rise, which slows down imports. In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China decreased significantly, and some imported pure benzene faced difficulties in unloading, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, the supply is tightening as more plants are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene plant is uncertain. It is expected that the new production capacity will increase the supply in mid - to late October. The balance sheet shows that styrene will maintain a tight balance from October to November (if Jingbo's plant stops for a long time, styrene will enter a destocking pattern in the fourth quarter). However, high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit the upward price movement. In the short term, the market is affected by macro factors and follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. It is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, and that of styrene is 6400 - 7000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in the past three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2511C6700) with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 yuan to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% ratio at 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6500) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 110 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory build - up pattern. Import is slowing down, and short - term spot liquidity is tightening [3]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening in the short term, and the market will maintain a tight balance from October to November. High inventory and the drag from pure benzene limit the upward price movement [3]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China was 47,000 tons, a significant decrease. Some imported pure benzene faced unloading difficulties, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [4]. - Several styrene plants, including Jingbo Sida Rui (670,000 tons/year), Anhui Jiaxi (350,000 tons/year), and Lianyungang Petrochemical (600,000 tons/year), are under maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Due to weak macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals, the price of crude oil has been falling recently, weakening cost support and causing a collective decline in oil - related chemical products [7]. - As of October 13, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period, but the high inventory is still difficult to reduce [7]. - On October 10, 2025, the US President announced a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting from November 1 and export controls on all key software, putting pressure on terminal export demand [7]. - Two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.5 Basis and Price Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene are presented, showing different trends for various contracts [8]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - futures spreads and cross - product spreads, are analyzed, with most spreads showing downward trends [9]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Price - **Pure Benzene**: The prices of pure benzene in different markets and contracts are provided, along with production margins. The production margin of pure benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 366 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [10]. - **Styrene**: The prices of styrene in different regions and contracts are given, as well as its profits. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 612.2397 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [11]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and EPS are also presented [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.59% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose by 2.85%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.75%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.23%. Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index rose by 0.48%, and the rest of the theme indices declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.87%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.19%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Gold index had the largest increase of 3.45%, and the Glass index had the largest decline of -4.53% [1][3] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2521.90 today, down 14.87 points or -0.59% from yesterday, with an annualized return of -2.13%, an annualized volatility of 12.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.18. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1633.24, up 45.20 points or 2.85%, with an annualized return of 62.62%, an annualized volatility of 17.28%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.62. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3466.89, down 42.15 points or -1.20%, with an annualized return of -11.62%, an annualized volatility of 14.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.81. - The Nanhua Metals Index (NHMI) closed at 6349.75, down 20.11 points or -0.32%, with an annualized return of -3.03%, an annualized volatility of 12.68%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.24. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1549.68, down 27.55 points or -1.75%, with an annualized return of -18.55%, an annualized volatility of 16.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of -1.09. - The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 1715.43, down 5.25 points or -0.31%, with an annualized return of 0.91%, an annualized volatility of 12.72%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.07. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2486.47, down 5.85 points or -0.23%, with an annualized return of -12.51%, an annualized volatility of 17.70%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.71. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1044.65, down 6.97 points or -0.66%, with an annualized return of -2.40%, an annualized volatility of 8.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.27. - The Nanhua Composite Mini Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1169.02, down 5.46 points or -0.46%, with an annualized return of -0.66%, an annualized volatility of 10.88%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.06. - The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 980.68, down 18.67 points or -1.87%, with an annualized return of -4.50%, an annualized volatility of 18.38%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.24. - The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 878.89, down 11.13 points or -1.25%, with an annualized return of -3.44%, an annualized volatility of 8.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.38. - The Nanhua Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 953.00, down 11.90 points or -1.23%, with an annualized return of -4.21%, an annualized volatility of 8.70%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.48. - The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1048.30, down 1.95 points or -0.19%, with an annualized return of -0.89%, an annualized volatility of 17.29%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05. - The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 704.05, down 7.69 points or -1.08%, with an annualized return of -3.99%, an annualized volatility of 12.11%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.33. - The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) closed at 1234.71, down 8.09 points or -0.65%, with an annualized return of -0.56%, an annualized volatility of 12.98%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.04. - The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 895.08, up 4.28 points or 0.48%, with an annualized return of 0.24%, an annualized volatility of 6.87%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.04 [3] Some Single - Variety Indexes - In the agricultural products sector, rapeseed had a 0.00% change, rapeseed meal fell -2.45%, and live pigs fell -1.97%. - In the energy and chemical sector, glass fell -4.53%, synthetic ammonia fell -0.13%, methanol fell -2.03%, styrene fell -1.75%, LPG fell -1.33%, and PTA fell -1.21% [7][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses the valuation, and the recent macro - impact will dominate the market trend. The overall unilateral trend has high uncertainty. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cash flow of coal - based marginal ethylene glycol plants has been compressed below the cost line, and there may be strong supply - side support at the 3700 level. In the short term, ethylene glycol will digest macro - negatives, with the expected price range shifting down to 3850 - 4250. In case of over - decline due to panic, one can consider selling EG2601 - P - 3850 when the price is above 50 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are: ethylene glycol 3800 - 4300, PX 6000 - 6800, PTA 4250 - 4750, and bottle chips 5300 - 5900. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.86%, 13.59%, 13.87%, and 11.18% respectively, and their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 11.9%, 32.3%, 23.9%, and 31.4% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with a long spot position, one can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 4200 - 4300 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P3850) and sell call options (EG2601C4250) with a 50% hedging ratio to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, with a short spot position, one can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 3900 - 4000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P3850) with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Demand has a marginal improvement with winter orders, but the "weak peak season" expectation is hard to reverse. The near - end inventory is low, and the inventory accumulation before the end of October is limited. The macro - impact will dominate the market, and the long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cost - support at 3700 is expected if the valuation is further compressed. In the short term, it will digest macro - negatives, with the price range shifting down [3]. 利多解读 (Likely a typo for "Positive Factors Analysis") - The US adding port service fees to relevant Chinese ships since October 14, 2025, will increase the cost of ethane - based ethylene glycol, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The rising price of thermal coal compresses the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening the cost - support [6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The US's plan to impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports from November 1, announced on October 11, intensifies the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a pessimistic macro - sentiment and a weak market [7]. Polyester Daily Report Table - It shows the prices, price differences, inventory levels, processing fees, and production - sales ratios of various polyester products on October 17, 2025, compared with previous dates, reflecting the market changes of the polyester industry [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The asphalt market's peak season shows no better - than - expected performance. With increasing short - term external disturbances, it is recommended to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Supply: Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has little change. Raw material shortages and heavy oil tightness remain unsolved, keeping the asphalt crack spread high [3]. - Demand: Due to the National Day holiday, the overall spot market trading was dull, mainly consuming social inventory. The short - term peak season did not exceed expectations. Future rainfall in the South will continue to affect demand, making the peak season less prosperous [3]. - Inventory: The inventory structure has improved. Factory inventories are stable with low pressure, and social inventories are being depleted. Pre - holiday stockpiling and the start of rigid demand have led to overall inventory reduction [3]. - Cost: As OPEC continues to increase production, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The recent rapid drop in crude oil prices is due to the intensification of Sino - US tariffs and weak risk - asset sentiment [3]. - Price: The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. The Shandong consumption tax reform pilot has not been further expanded [3]. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.52% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.22% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 25%, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and 150 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - **Base and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract base was 214 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day and 32 yuan from the previous week; the Shandong spot's crack spread against Brent was 152.8371 yuan/barrel, down 6.9315 yuan from the previous day and 8.5358 yuan from the previous week; the main futures contract's crack spread against Brent was 110.3815 yuan/barrel, down 24.9535 yuan from the previous day and 22.9187 yuan from the previous week [6]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The anti - involution atmosphere and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's re - emphasis on抵制无序价格战 [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The escalation of Sino - US tariffs, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and the increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Shandong [3][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The PE supply - demand pattern remains loose. Supply is increasing as multiple devices restarted in late September, and import volume is expected to rise in October - November. Demand recovery is slow, with low downstream order follow - up and weak restocking willingness. High inventory levels add to the pressure on prices. Considering various uncertainties, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for polyethylene is predicted to be between 6800 - 7200 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.15%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 4.7% [3]. - **Inventory Management Hedging**: For high product inventory, to prevent price drops, it's recommended to short L2601 plastic futures at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan and sell L2601C7200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 50 [3]. - **Procurement Management Hedging**: For low procurement inventory, to avoid price hikes, it's suggested to buy L2601 plastic futures at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan and sell L2601P6700 put options at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 70 - 90 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PE supply is increasing due to device restarts and expected import growth, while demand recovery is slow. High inventory levels are putting downward pressure on prices. Due to uncertainties such as trade policies and conferences, unilateral trading should be on hold [4]. 3.3 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, and a 50 - million - ton full - density device of Yulong stopped for about 5 days due to a fault [5]. - **Negative Factors**: New LDPE devices are expected to be put into production, device restarts have increased the operating rate, LLDPE inventory is high, and PE imports are expected to increase in October - November [7][9]. 3.4 Market Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: There were various changes in plastic futures prices, spreads, and basis compared to previous days and weeks [10]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in different regions and regional spreads also showed changes [10]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between non - standard and standard PE products had different changes [10]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of upstream raw materials like crude oil, ethane, coal, and methanol changed, and processing profits of different PE production methods also fluctuated [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, polyolefins have followed the decline in crude oil. The supply - demand pattern of PP has become looser. The significant drop in propane prices has led to a recovery in PDH device profits, with the device load expected to increase and supply to gradually return. On the demand side, the downstream of PP has shown a "weak peak season" this year, with limited restocking willingness from factories. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, PP is under continuous pressure. Due to many recent disturbing factors, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral operations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6500 - 7000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.20% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.0% [3]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 6900 - 7000 range to lock in profits and offset production costs; also, sell PP2601C6900 call options with a 50% ratio in the 20 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6550 range to lock in procurement costs in advance; also, sell PP2601P6400 put options with a 75% ratio in the 50 - 80 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - Polyolefins have declined with crude oil. The supply - demand of PP has become looser. Propane price drops have increased PDH profits, reducing unexpected shutdowns and increasing device loads. Downstream demand has shown a "weak peak season", with limited restocking and short - lived speculative restocking, so demand support is insufficient. Due to many disturbing factors, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - Currently, there is a lack of positive support [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The CP price of propane dropped significantly during the National Day, causing PP to lose cost support; the peak - season demand recovery has been slow, showing a "weak peak season"; exports have weakened seasonally and the export window is currently closed; a 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical started operation this week [8]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 17, 2025, the main basis of polypropylene was - 71 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 37 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all declined compared to the previous day and week [9]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various non - standard products and standard products (拉丝) all increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with different weekly increases [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged on the day but decreased weekly. US propane prices decreased. The processing profits of different production methods of PP changed, with some showing an improvement [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals and macro - sentiment of iron ore are under pressure. The focus on policy changes will be the key variable to break the downward trend. The market is looking forward to incremental stimulus policies during the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and potential China - US talks. If fiscal or monetary easing measures are implemented, it is expected to improve demand expectations and boost iron ore prices [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Liberal Factors**: Current hot metal production, though slightly down month - on - month, maintains year - on - year positive growth and is at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore. The current basis of iron ore has increased, and the valuation is relatively low. The expectation of incremental stimulus policies under weak demand has risen [4][6][10]. - **Negative Factors**: Sino - US trade frictions have led to a significant decline in market risk appetite. Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories are accumulating beyond the seasonal norm. Hot - rolled coil inventories are continuously accumulating beyond the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand momentum insufficient. Steel mill profits have dropped significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback from steel mill production cuts is constantly building up. The strong coking coal market is squeezing the space for iron ore [8][9][10]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Operate the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of [760, 810] [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 800 - 810), and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell at high prices). - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 750 - 760), and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell at high prices) [13]. 3.1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: The iron water cost on October 17, 2025, was 2461.88 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18.56 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 19.86 yuan/ton. The blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 65 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The blast furnace rebar profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 43 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a weekly decrease of 0.87% and a monthly decrease of 3.46% [13][14]. - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data Table**: The global iron ore shipment volume on October 10, 2025, was 3207.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 71.5 tons and a monthly decrease of 365.6 tons. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 2666.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 60.9 tons and a monthly decrease of 184.3 tons [15]. - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data Table**: The daily average port clearance volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.28 tons and a monthly decrease of 15.56 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.59 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.07 tons [16]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data Table**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports on October 17, 2025, was 14278.27 tons, a weekly increase of 253.77 tons and a monthly increase of 428.8 tons. The proportion of trade ore at 45 ports was 64.49%, a weekly decrease of 0.72% and a monthly decrease of 0.75% [17]. 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: No specific summary data provided in the text, but there are multiple charts showing the seasonal and cumulative year - on - year changes in global iron ore shipments [17][18][19]. - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in the shipments of the four major iron ore mines [24][25][26]. - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in non - mainstream mine shipments. The Platts iron ore price index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [28][31][37]. - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year changes in the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and actual arrival volume [37][38][41]. - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the freight rates of capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of freight in iron ore prices, ship speeds, and global weekly sea - floating inventories [44][45][48]. - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the daily average production of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly production of iron concentrate powder from 433 mining enterprises in China [49][50][51]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Hot Metal Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, over - seasonal, and year - on - year changes in the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises in China, as well as the relationship between hot metal production and iron ore prices [54][55][56]. - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Multiple charts show the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises, and the leading relationship between profits and the production of various steel products [57][58][59]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar**: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, total inventory, short - process production, cost assessment, and price differences of rebar [72][73][74]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Hot - rolled Coil**: Multiple charts show the seasonal production, consumption, total inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [80][81][82]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Medium and Heavy Plate**: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium and heavy plates [83][84][85]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Multiple charts show the estimated seasonal production of off - balance - sheet steel, the combined inventory of on - and off - balance - sheet crude steel, and the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [88][89][90]. - **Export Analysis**: Multiple charts show the monthly production of special steel, the monthly export volume of steel, the port - out volume of steel, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [110][111][115]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of 45 ports, the inventory structure of iron ore at ports, the over - seasonal changes in inventory compared with the past 5 years, the seasonal changes in the inventory of different types of iron ore (such as lump ore, iron concentrate powder, etc.), and the proportion of different types of iron ore in port inventory [116][117][118]. - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of in - plant and in - transit iron ore in steel mills, the estimated seasonal inventory turnover days of iron ore [132][133]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: The report provides a table of iron ore warehouse receipt prices, showing the basis and delivery profits of different iron ore varieties. It also shows the seasonal changes in the basis of different iron ore futures contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [134][136][137]. - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [138][139][141]. - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts, and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [143][144][147]. - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Multiple charts show the price difference between iron and scrap steel, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the relationship between the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises and the price difference between iron and scrap steel [148][149][150].