国债期货日报 2025年7月31日 观点：交易盘继续持有 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 具体来说，建议交易仓位继续持有，可适当上调止损确保浮盈，后续若出现回踩或者突破补上缺口，都是加仓时机。 国债期货高开高走，全天偏强运行，全线收涨。资金方面，跨月压力显现，但经过此前连续净投放，市场情 绪稳定，从资金面情绪指数来看，各机构压力并不大。公开市场今天转为净回笼，7D逆回购净回笼478亿。 资金利率盘前小幅走高，但随后持续下行，截至收盘GC001已经下至1%，流动性相当充裕。 日内消息： 1.记者注意到，在广东打响地方层面金融业反内卷第一枪后，工商银行也在大行层面率先表态。7月30日刚刚 结束的年中工作会议上，工商银行明确要求带头整治"内卷式"竞争，成为首家将反内卷列入下半年工作重点的 国有大行。 行情研判： 当前预期纠偏情绪改善，基本面延续趋势，资金面依旧宽松，多方共振支持行情转向。而技术层面，量价配合确认了短周期的双底反转走势，目前T2509价格已经基本回到7月23日（因为 煤炭超产整改引发的）跳空缺口下方，来到第一反弹点位附近。 但从日内期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the destocking process is slow. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price decline" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 as technological upgrades are completed and production increases [3]. - There are positive factors such as improved macro sentiment and supply - side disruptions, and negative factors including high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and technological upgrades delaying capacity clearance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 3.29% daily and 10.95% weekly; trading volume is 521,849 lots, down 34.19% daily and 70.52% weekly; open interest is 229,368 lots, down 15.91% daily and 47.48% weekly. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 2.81% daily and 8.53% weekly; trading volume is 378,788 lots, down 17.16% daily and up 20.72% weekly; open interest is 195,732 lots, up 5.60% daily and 33.12% weekly [8]. - **Futures Spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 1700% daily and 119% weekly; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 520 yuan/ton, up 189% daily and down 263% weekly [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Spot Price**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, down 1.41% daily and up 5.74% weekly [15]. - **Lithium Salt Spot Price**: The average prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide also show daily and weekly fluctuations. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,900 yuan/ton, down 1.34% daily and up 1.45% weekly [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spread**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a 27.27% weekly increase [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and the brand - based basis quotes of different companies have specific values. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2507 contract is 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 5,545, a decrease of 7,586 from the previous day [30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary requirements [33]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 50% of lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in profits, sell 50% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月31日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 强支撑位8300 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - **Spot Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline, and the BHSI also joined the decline. Although the BCI freight rate index rose, its increase narrowed, leading to a narrowing increase in the BDI composite freight rate index. The increase in the shipment of agricultural products and new shipments of resources such as iron ore and bauxite boosted the demand for capesize vessels, supporting the freight rates of capesize vessels. However, the decrease in the shipment of industrial products dragged down the demand for panamax and handy vessels, causing their prices to weaken [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - On July 29, compared with the previous week, the increases in the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index narrowed. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI indices adjusted, with the decline of the BPI index widening. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,109 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.64%; the BCI index closed at 3,476 points, a week - on - week increase of 13.56%; the BPI index closed at 1,741 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%; the BSI index closed at 1,281 points, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61%; and the BHSI index closed at 677 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On July 29, the FDI index declined across the board. In the routes of the super - handy vessel rent index, the rent of the Indonesia - to - China voyage charter route increased by 0.11% month - on - month. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,321.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the FDI rent index closed at 1,610.35 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The rent indices of different ship types also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On July 31, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 43 vessels for shipping, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 30 vessels, and Australia used 5 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51 vessels, Guinea used 27 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 27 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 11 vessels, and the United States used 13 vessels [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 30 vessels were used for corn, 22 for wheat, 20 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 93 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipments required the most post - panamax vessels (44), followed by super - handy vessels (22) and handy vessels (23). Industrial product shipments required the most capesize vessels (76), followed by post - panamax vessels (60) and super - handy vessels (54) [17]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - The weekly data showed that the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports continued to increase month - on - month. From July 1 to July 30, the number of dry - bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 13; the number of ships in Australian ports decreased by 11; the number of ships in Indonesian ports increased by 4; and the number of ships in Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged [17][18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 29, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,934.19 yuan/ton. On July 28, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,118/day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $114.6/thousand tons. On July 28, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,528/day, and on July 29, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 532.98 yuan/ton. On July 28, the handy vessel freight rate index was quoted at 680.8 points, and on August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]

金融期货早评 宏观：政策基调仍是积极有为 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济 形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。2）育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大 范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，初步预算 900 亿元、8 月下旬申 领。3）美联储连续五次会议按兵不动，但两票委支持降息，指出经济增长放缓；鲍威尔未 就 9 月降息给指引，强调关税和通胀的不确定性，称就业市场未走弱。特朗普对进口半成 品铜等征 50%关税，但不含阴极铜和精炼铜，纽铜暴跌 20%。4）美国暂停对低价值货物的 最低限度免税待遇。5）特朗普称美国将对印度施加 25%关税及"惩罚"，指印方是俄罗斯能 源大买家。特朗普宣布与韩国达成全面贸易协议，征收 15%关税，韩国将向美国提供 3500 亿美元投资，由美国拥有和控制。特朗普签署行政命令，将对巴西征收 50%关税。6）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 3%好于预期，PCE 物价指数 2.5%。美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数增 加 10.4 万人超预期，但雇主对招聘决策趋于谨慎。欧元区二季度躲过衰退，GDP 超预期增 长 0 ...