Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, it will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support the price effectively. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Also, focus on the macro - sentiment [3]. - The trading logic for the near - term: Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the cheapest deliverable goods are still in Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread should be in a reverse arbitrage. Due to the expectation of autumn fertilizer for the 01 contract, it still has a premium [6]. - The trading expectation for the long - term: The domestic daily urea production fluctuated slightly between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around the holiday. After the shutdown of factories in regions such as Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, significantly increasing compared to before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - sales before the holiday and urgently need to replenish new orders [11][21]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low, and it will accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter without export policy adjustment. The industry's internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industrial sectors is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. The cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support prices, and new export quotas need attention. Macro - events such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" time - node should be monitored [3]. - Near - term trading: The cheapest deliverable urea is in Henan and Shandong. The 01 contract's 1 - 5 spread should be in reverse arbitrage, and the 01 contract has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [6]. - Long - term trading: Domestic urea daily production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders [11]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **行情定位**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The UR2601 contract will operate in the range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **基差、月差及对冲套利策略建议**: For the basis strategy, the 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when the pre - holiday price cuts to receive orders increase. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For the spread strategy, the upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter - storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative information**: The daily production of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and even when it dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous decline in prices has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market was sluggish in September. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined [18][19]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - node for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic daily urea production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and the inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders. On the demand side, continuous rainfall in Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. Many compound fertilizer factories in the region have shut down, and the impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations has weakened. Currently, the rigid demand is cautious in replenishing goods, and the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to stock up is poor [21]. - The current main contradiction is the weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [29]. - **Urea hedging strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Also, buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and aiming to prevent price increases, buy urea futures at present, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Information on the seasonal production costs and profits of different urea production methods such as fixed - bed, natural - gas - based, and water - coal - slurry gasification is presented through various charts [32][33][35]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - Information on the seasonal production profits, production costs, daily output, and capacity utilization rates of different urea production methods and in different regions is shown in multiple charts [41][42][43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The seasonal inventory data of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in specific regions like Guangdong and Guangxi are presented in charts [47][48][49]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Information on the seasonal capacity utilization rates, inventory, production profits, and market prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine is shown in various charts [52][54][58]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The seasonal production and sales data of urea in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China are presented in charts [75][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent propylene 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The spot market, especially in Shandong, is affected by the start - up of some devices, leading to a loose supply. The decline in the price of propane in the outer market has caused the collapse of PDH costs, and with insufficient terminal demand, propylene/PP prices have followed suit. The propylene trend remains highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread fluctuates around 500 - 550 yuan/ton [2]. - In the near - term, due to the collapse of the cost side and the loose spot market, both the spot and the futures market have weakened. In the long - term, factors such as supply - side production expectations, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and pressure from increased supply on the cost side, with the weakening of CP/FEI in the long - term, will affect the propylene market [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the external supply has increased, and the gap between supply and demand in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP powder, granules, and propylene is still small, and the ability to absorb high - priced propylene is insufficient. Most other downstream products also have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. - The PDH cost has collapsed. The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The outer - market prices have weakened, with the current CP - calculated cost at 5,950 yuan/ton and the FEI - calculated cost at 5,800 yuan/ton [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the PL01 price range at 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the valuation is not high and the propane cost for PDH remains weak [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to be volatile. This week, the basis has widened, with both the spot and the futures market weakening, and the futures market being relatively weaker [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. The 02 contract has relatively low positions, and the calendar spread fluctuates randomly. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, reverse arbitrage at high prices is still considered [17]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. The spread between PP granules, powder, and propylene is around 340 yuan/ton. After the propylene spot price weakens, the spread has widened slightly. Consider widening the spread when the PP - PL spread is within 500 yuan/ton [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range for propylene is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1068 and a historical volatility percentage of 0.6551 over three years [21]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits. Sell call options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can also be locked. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices. Sell put options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price drops, the spot purchase price can be locked [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The price difference between PP granules, powder, and propylene has widened from a low level, and the PP - end operating rate has increased. Geopolitical issues may still flare up repeatedly [23][24]. - **Negative Information**: The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The propane swap price has continued to fall after the holiday. Sino - US economic and trade issues may continue to fluctuate, causing significant disturbances to the cost side. The spot price has continued to decline, with the price in the Shandong region dropping by 230 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session will be held. On October 20, data such as LPR and third - quarter GDP will be released. On October 24, data such as US CPI and PMI will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract has continued its downward trend, with a slight decrease in the position. The net position of the main profitable seats has decreased, and there has been no significant change in the long - short list positions. The net short position of profitable seats has increased slightly, the net short position of foreign capital has decreased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors has decreased slightly. Technically, all cycles are in a downward trend, with the moving averages in a short - position arrangement. The decline on the hourly chart has slowed down slightly [25]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the propylene 01 basis is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton compared to last week. Both the spot and the futures market have declined, with the futures market being relatively weaker. The propylene 01 - 02 calendar spread is - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week. The overall trend is conducive to reverse arbitrage and remains volatile [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries is 547.82 yuan/ton (- 71.31 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries is 225.77 yuan/ton (- 23.42 yuan/ton). The cracking operating rate has slightly decreased with the profit [31]. - **Midstream Profit**: The Asian naphtha cracking profit is - $12/ton (+$27/ton), and the Asian propane cracking profit is $48/ton (+$35/ton). After the overseas propane price drops, the propane cracking profit has increased. The PDH profit based on FEI cost is 372 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and the PDH profit based on CP cost is 247 yuan/ton (- 235 yuan/ton), with the PDH profit shrinking from a high level [34]. - **Downstream Profit**: The price difference between PP拉丝, powder, and propylene is 340 yuan/ton (+ 160 yuan/ton and + 210 yuan/ton respectively). After the propylene price weakens, the price difference between PP and propylene has widened from a low level. The PO/SM profit of propylene oxide is 977 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 1,070 yuan/ton (+ 46 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin - method profit is 274 yuan/ton (- 7.5 yuan/ton). Recently, the profit of the chlorohydrin - method PO has improved, supporting the operating rate. The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,305 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with little overall change. The acrylic acid profit is + 672 yuan/ton (+ 88 yuan/ton), with improved profit. The butanol profit is - 207 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), currently in a loss state, and the subsequent operating - rate change should be monitored. The octanol profit is - 0.45 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), slightly improved compared to last week, and the subsequent operating - rate change of major external - purchasing units should be monitored. The phenol - acetone profit is - 564 yuan/ton (- 85 yuan/ton), with little change and in a volatile state [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The Sino - Korean propylene price difference has shown little recent fluctuation, and imports are expected to remain at a high level [48]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market have decreased. The supply reduction comes from the maintenance of devices such as Yulong and Jingbo, and the demand reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of the PP granule end. The supply - demand gap is expected to become looser again in late October as the maintenance devices resume operation [50]. 5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection This week, there have been both start - ups and shutdowns. The overall propylene operating rate is 74.44% (- 0.99%), still at a high level. The supply reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of steam cracking at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong, PDH at Wanda Tianhong and Tianjin Bohua, light - hydrocarbon cracking at Jingbo, and MTO at Qinghai Salt Lake. The production in the Shandong region is expected to partially recover in late October [52]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The demand in the Shandong region has increased this week, mainly due to the复产 of PP devices. For PP granules, Jineng's 3PP has复产, and its 2PP is under maintenance; Yulong's 3PP and 5PP have had short - term shutdowns, and currently, its 4PP is shut down; Dongming Petrochemical is under maintenance. For PP powder, Shufukang's new factory has a special - purpose granule production line, and one line of Dongfang Hongye has restarted. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling Chemical are shut down, Binhua has reduced its load, and Wanhua Penglai has increased its load (Shandong Minxiang is in the feeding stage). Luxi Chemical has slightly increased its load. For acrylonitrile, there has been no device change. For acrylic acid, Qilu Kaitai has reduced its load, Wanhua and Shandong Hengxin have increased their loads, and Qixiang Tengda is under maintenance. For butanol and octanol, there have been few device changes. For phenol - acetone, there has been no device change, and Shandong Fuyu is under maintenance [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. The demand has a marginal improvement with the arrival of winter orders, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - sentiment, with the range moving down to 3850 - 4200. There may be strong supply - side support around 3700. [1] - In the short term, the unilateral price will fluctuate with the macro - situation. The port's visible inventory is at a historical low, and the supply elasticity is limited. The valuation is difficult to compress further without new downward drivers. [2] - In the long run, the supply - demand will enter an inventory accumulation channel, and the valuation will be under long - term pressure. Macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market, and future events may provide new price support. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be supply - side support around 3700. [1] - Short - term trading logic: The price will fluctuate with the macro - situation, the port inventory is low, and the supply elasticity is limited. [2] - Long - term trading expectation: Enter the inventory accumulation channel, and macro - events may provide price support. [5] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Base - difference strategy: Consider positive arbitrage when the 11 - lower paper cargo +65 or below. [9] - Recent strategy: The EG01 put option selling strategy and the 10 - lower paper cargo cash - futures positive arbitrage strategy are being held. [12] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range fluctuation. - Price range: EG2601 fluctuates between 3850 - 4200. - Strategy recommendations: Sell EG01 put options and call options at appropriate price ranges. [11] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - MEG key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [14] - Polyester key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [15] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The US adds port service fees to Chinese - related ships, which may increase the cost of ethane - made ethylene glycol. [17] - Bearish information: The US will impose new tariffs on Chinese - imported goods from November 1. [18] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events Attention - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, Sino - US negotiations, polyester load, terminal orders, and the implementation of plant maintenance and restart plans. [19] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The ethylene glycol futures price has been falling, showing a strong bearish trend in the technical aspect. [20] - Capital movement: The net short - position of key seats first decreased and then increased, indicating that the main capital is cautiously bearish on the future. [23] - Month - difference structure: The near - term 11 contract maintains a premium over 01, and the structure after 01 is C, indicating that the near - term spot contradiction is not resolved. [25] - Base - difference structure: The main base - difference of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and the near - term base - difference has strong support before the end of October. [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Cost Tracking - The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, which affects the cost of ethylene glycol production. [32] 4.2 Upstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The production profits of various routes and import profits of ethylene glycol have changed, and the profitability of different varieties' switching has also changed. [39][44] 4.3 Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The profits of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have changed, and the processing fees have been repaired. [47] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 shows changes in production, import, export, demand, and inventory. [60] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The total load of ethylene glycol has increased, and the coal - made load has also increased. The profit of coal - made marginal devices is under pressure, and the port inventory is expected to maintain a tight balance. [61] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load remains stable, the demand has a marginal improvement but the peak - season is not prosperous. The downstream inventory is in a dynamic balance, and the bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired. [72] Chapter 6: Industry Chain - Related Chart Appendix - The appendix provides a large number of charts related to the ethylene glycol, polyester, and terminal industries, including price, profit, load, inventory, and other aspects. [100][154][181]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nanhua Pulp Industry Weekly Report" dated October 19, 2025, with an investment rating of "Weak Maintenance" [1] Core Views - The domestic pulp market sentiment remains weak, with light spot transactions and prices under pressure. The market is in a pattern of "weak reality" versus "strong expectation", constrained by multiple factors [3] - High inventory and weak real - demand are the main factors suppressing pulp price increases. In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be range - bound and weak. The key turning points are effective inventory reduction and seasonal demand driving downstream restocking [3] Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradiction - Fundamentally, supply pressure persists, with port inventories above 2 million tons and slow warehouse receipt digestion. The external market shows a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" situation [3] - Terminal demand is "not booming in the peak season". Downstream paper mills face high inventories and low production profits, lacking the motivation to restock significantly [3] - Near - term trading: Warehouse receipts suppress prices, and there is poor willingness to take delivery of Russian softwood pulp. High - level inventory makes de - stocking difficult [4] - Long - term trading: The impact of warehouse receipts will decline to some extent, but there will still be available warehouse receipts in 2026. Fed rate - cut expectations are strengthening, but US trade policies may bring supply pressure [4] Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillating downward. Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [6] - Basis strategy: The near - month basis of Russian softwood pulp remains high. Selling the basis requires improved spot liquidity of Russian softwood pulp [7] - Spread strategy: Due to the continuous impact of warehouse receipts and high port inventories, consider a reverse spread for the 01 - 03 contracts [7] Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, short pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [8] - Procurement management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventories, buy pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [8] This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - There is no positive information. Negative factors include high - level port inventory de - stocking difficulties, warehouse receipt pressure, weak demand, and poor downstream profitability [9][12] - Spot transaction information shows the latest prices, price changes, and price ranges of various pulp and paper products [10][11][13] Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, the sp2511 contract oscillated at a low level, and the sp2601 contract had limited rebound, showing a bearish technical trend [16] Basis and Spread Structure - The spread structure maintains a C - structure. Warehouse receipts of Brazilian softwood pulp continue to suppress prices, with about 15 - 170,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the market. Consider shorting the 01 - 03 spread [19] Supply - Demand and Inventory DemandDemand and Inventory Inventory - On October 17, inventory was 2.074 million tons (- 0.3). High - level inventory is difficult to reduce. Although domestic softwood pulp imports in August were at a five - year low, the increase in global pulp shipments to China in August will pressure future de - stocking [21] - Downstream finished paper inventories are accumulating, and low profit margins restrict raw material restocking [21] Supply - Domestic production and import volume data of various types of pulp are presented, showing the production and import trends of pulp in different periods [45][46][48] Demand - Data on finished paper capacity utilization, production, export, and consumption are provided, reflecting the demand - side situation of the pulp industry [55][61][64][69] Spot - Spot prices of pulp, including domestic and international prices, and prices of finished paper products such as white cardboard, offset paper, and copperplate paper are presented [73][75][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the US federal government shutdown for over two weeks and delayed release of key economic data, the US dollar index has not significantly declined recently. This is driven by data vacuum, the "comparative disadvantage logic" of major non - US currencies, and geopolitical risks pushing up market risk - aversion. The asset reallocation from non - US currencies to commodities also indirectly supports the US dollar. However, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range under the "stability - first" policy of the Chinese central bank, especially before the important meeting at the end of October [1][17][19]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Weekly Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week's foreign exchange market was dominated by policy variables (new trade war risks and Fed's monetary policy signals) and the impact of the US government shutdown. The market was immune to the new trade war risks, and the Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal boosted market liquidity expectations. The euro was positively affected by the Fed's signal and short - term political stability in Europe; the yen was affected by Japan's political uncertainty; the US dollar index depreciated, and the offshore RMB, yen, euro, and pound appreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore RMB slightly depreciated [2][4][5]. 1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed a "rising first then falling" volatile trend last week. Key events included Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal on the balance - sheet reduction process, which was due to short - term liquidity tightness in the US money market. China released September CPI and PPI data, with CPI showing signs of improvement and PPI expected to continue improving but unlikely to turn positive this year [11][12][14]. 1.3 Market Outlook - The US dollar index's short - term strength is supported by multiple factors. However, under the Chinese central bank's policy of maintaining RMB exchange rate stability, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range before the end of October [17][19]. 1.4 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 2. RMB Market Observation 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated by 99 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of RMB depreciation expectations) [22]. 2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with active trading and balanced supply and demand. Cross - border funds had a net inflow, and bank settlement and sales had a surplus [26]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB showed that overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB had declined [30]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH slightly declined, and the sentiment in the market changed little, with only a slight increase in short - term depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [32]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [37][38]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [40][41]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 Weekly Global Key Events Review - **China**: In September, China's foreign trade increased year - on - year; economic policies were continuously promoted, including central bank operations, data releases of M1, M2, CPI, and PPI, and statements on maintaining RMB exchange rate stability [46][47]. - **US**: Economists raised the US economic growth forecast, but employment growth was expected to be weak. There were trade frictions, government shutdown issues, and differences in Fed members' views on interest rate cuts [49][51][56]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate rose, and the private - sector wage growth slowed, triggering an upgrade in interest - rate cut expectations [53]. - **Eurozone**: Germany's economy was unlikely to recover in the third quarter [54]. - **Japan**: No significant events were reported [54]. - **Others**: The IMF raised the world economic growth forecast for 2025 and warned about the global public debt issue [54][55]. 3.2 Weekly Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - Different central banks, including the Chinese central bank, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, had various statements on monetary policies, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [55][56][59]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A series of important economic data from China, the US, Canada, Japan, and the UK, as well as central bank speeches, are to be released this week [63]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Charts show the trends of exchange rates between the US dollar and major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, etc. [64][66][70]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Charts show the trends of major assets including gold, crude oil, stock indices, etc., and their relationships [84][85][86]. 4.3 Capital Situation - Charts show central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [94][96]. 4.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of Sino - US interest rate spreads and the yields of 10 - year US and Chinese treasury bonds [98][99]. 4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Charts show the trends of three major RMB exchange rate indices [102]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Charts show the monthly values of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures [104][106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions have a marginal bullish impact on far - month log prices. The additional port fees may lead to an increase in CFR quotes or a reduction in the number of imported ships, affecting the supply volume. In the current weak supply - demand balance, a significant supply contraction could change the supply - demand pattern. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be variable [5]. - For the far - month 01 contract, it is recommended to cautiously go long with dynamic drawdown stop - losses. The 11 contract follows the delivery logic, with low buyer acceptance, but it may rise following the far - month contract. Currently, the cost of rolling over to the far - month contract is not in the safe range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions lead to an increase in import costs, with some log - importing ships being charged special port fees, adding about a dozen dollars per cubic meter to the import cost. This may either increase CFR quotes or reduce the number of imported ships, with the latter being more likely. The supply - demand pattern may change if there is a significant supply contraction. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be affected by future negotiations [5]. 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The 11 contract is expected to rebound, and the 01 contract is expected to break through upwards. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the 01 contract with dynamic drawdown stop - losses to deal with possible policy adjustments [10][11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 820 - 830 [12]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 780 - 800 [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Seasonal decline in inventory, which is at a historical low; the start of special port fee collection is bullish for far - month prices [11][15]. - Bearish information: Low buyer acceptance in delivery and high seller delivery costs [13]. - Spot transaction information: Provided spot prices and basis data for different log specifications [16]. - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 11 - 01 spread [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The 01 contract broke through upwards, with an increase of 2,800 lots in positions on Friday [17]. - In the spread structure, the deep discount pattern of near - month contracts has been somewhat repaired by the far - month bullish factors, but a spread of 30 is not considered absolutely safe [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 831 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong region it is around 833 yuan/cubic meter. The buyer's acceptance price, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 792 yuan/cubic meter. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 4.2 Import Profit - Import profits have been somewhat repaired. Reducing the proportion of imported materials and increasing the proportion of integrated materials can improve the import profit of the whole ship [26]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From October 9th to 15th, New Zealand dispatched 17 ships, 7 more than the previous period, with 15 ships expected to head to the Chinese mainland. - After the holiday, inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly and then trend towards de - stocking due to previous events. - As of October 10th, the daily average outbound volume was 57,300 cubic meters, with large fluctuations around the National Day. Overall, the demand is expected to remain relatively stable [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for non - aluminum products shows no obvious restocking behavior, slightly falling short of expectations. The market still anticipates a phased restocking in the non - aluminum sector, but it remains to be seen whether this expectation will be confirmed or refuted [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase space of caustic soda. The overall contradiction is limited, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. Currently, it is necessary to wait for the restocking expectation to be realized or disproven [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak. Non - aluminum restocking is below expectations, but the market still hopes that a bottoming of the spot price will stimulate downstream purchasing [2]. - **Long - term trading expectation**: High profits limit the price ceiling. There is continuous medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressure. Disagreements exist regarding the realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production, which affects the phased restocking rhythm [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production situation restricts the price space of caustic soda. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 2300 - 2600 [6]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short - selling orders on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot price bottoming. Observe whether the restocking expectation is realized, and consider building long positions at low prices [7]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.19% and a historical percentile of 64.7% over three years [10]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In mid - to - early October, Shandong Jinling and Lutai have maintenance plans. Observe the price - holding strength of alkali plants. Shandong has started to reduce inventory, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory is 403,300 tons, a reduction of 17,900 tons [14]. - **Negative information**: The non - aluminum sector has not shown concentrated restocking [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor No relevant information provided. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side trend and capital movement**: This week, the main caustic soda 2601 contract showed a weakening trend, with the absolute price dropping to a relatively low level this year, mainly due to market sentiment and weak reality, as downstream phased restocking fell short of expectations [16]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: The spot price is stable. The basis of the 01 contract has repaired to near - flat. Observe whether the near - month spot price has support [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 100 - 150 yuan. The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan per ton (including liquid chlorine) [26]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars to around 460 US dollars. There is an expected substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [30]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda - 32% alkali spot price**: The report provides seasonal price data for 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [33][34][35]. - **Caustic soda - 50% alkali spot price**: Seasonal price data for 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi are presented [36][37][38][40]. - **Flake caustic soda spot price**: Seasonal price data for 99% flake caustic soda in North China, East China, and other regions are provided [41][42][45]. - **Spot regional price difference**: Seasonal data on the price differences between different grades and regions of caustic soda are given [48][49][50]. - **Spot price converted to futures price**: Seasonal data on the conversion of spot prices to futures prices for various caustic soda products are provided [58][59][60]. - **Caustic soda foreign market price**: Data on the FOB price in Northeast Asia, CFR price in Southeast Asia, and other foreign market prices of caustic soda are presented [77][78][79]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Caustic soda loss volume**: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly device loss volumes of caustic soda are provided [82][83]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate**: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda are presented, as well as regional production data [84][85][86]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operation rate**: Seasonal data on the weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda are provided, along with regional production data [88][89][90]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - The report provides data on the spot price, cost, and operation rate of alumina, as well as the operation rates of industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber. It also includes data on the monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda and the export destination structure [93][94][96][100][101]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: Seasonal data on the weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in various regions are provided [104][105][106]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: Seasonal data on the weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda are presented, along with regional inventory data [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, polyolefins continued their downward trend this week, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and upstream cost fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers. The market should focus on whether Sino - US trade frictions will escalate and if new stimulus policies will be introduced during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - In the long - term, due to the large number of new PE installations planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to increase further. Without new demand - boosting policies, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand aspect: The PE supply - demand pattern has not changed much. In October, the device maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and supply returned to a high level. Overseas PE supply - demand is weak, and import is expected to increase from October to November, intensifying supply pressure. Although it is the traditional peak season, demand recovery is slow, downstream orders are insufficient, and enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory is low. PE inventory, especially LLDPE inventory, is at a high level, and the upstream and mid - stream face great shipment pressure [2]. - Macro aspect: The continuous shutdown of the US government and market concerns about credit risks have increased risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market, putting downward pressure on crude oil. Sino - US trade policies are still uncertain, and if trade frictions escalate, it may lead to further price drops in crude oil and chemical products. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session next week is worth attention, and new stimulus policies may boost market sentiment [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: The market should focus on Sino - US trade frictions and new stimulus policies during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - Long - term trading expectation: The supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200, with a current volatility of 8.43% and a historical percentile of 5.8% (3 - year) [13]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [13]. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The market's concern about the US imposing a 100% tariff on China was alleviated by Trump's signal. A 500,000 - ton LLDPE full - density device of Yulong stopped for 5 days due to a fault [15]. - Bearish information: The risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The decline of the plastic market slowed down on Wednesday and Thursday, and the downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom increased, leading to a rapid increase in trading volume [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: In the context of the continuous decline of crude oil, PE prices followed the downward trend. This week, the position increased slightly, and the market's bearish sentiment was strong [22]. - Basis structure: During the decline this week, the spot price weakened following the disk, and the basis strengthened passively [24]. - Spread structure: The spread structure has not changed much recently, and the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - As PE prices continued to be weak, the production profits of all production lines were compressed. The coal - based production line with the best profit is on the verge of losses. PE devices are not sensitive to profit, so short - term losses do not usually cause unexpected shutdowns, resulting in a lack of strong cost support during the price decline [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - With the restart of devices and the commissioning of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually emerge. After October, imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total PE supply. Although it is the traditional peak season for PE downstream, demand growth is expected to be lower than supply. In October, inventory is expected to change from destocking to stocking rapidly, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern will suppress PE prices [34]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.76% (- 2.19%). This week, the device maintenance volume increased slightly. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device is in the trial - run stage. Overall, the return of maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity in the fourth quarter will lead to continuous high supply pressure [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The overseas PE supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price difference between the US and China has dropped to a historical low. It is expected that PE imports will increase from late October to November [41]. - Export: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [41]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 42.17% (+ 0.56%). The agricultural film operating rate increased significantly, but the growth is slower than in previous years. Other downstream demand is flat, so the demand - side support for PE is limited [44].

南华期货PVC周报 ——宏观预期扰动偏大，策略难落地 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 2025年10月19 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响PVC走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：1、近年孱弱的需求导致过高显性库存，以及巨大的仓单压力，导 致月差被持续的压制在无风险附近不得翻身。2、在整体持续过剩的背景下，虽然上游利润已经被压制的比较 低，但是由于企业性质或者物料平衡等问题，实质性的供应出清兑现十分缓慢。3、今年是近年PVC新增投产 的大年，在出口爆发力不足的基础上，国内需求无法消化如此体量的PVC增量，导致基本面持续恶化。目前 平衡表看，PVC在过年之前难以去库，且由于冬季低温担心管道冻结等原因，会导致上游的降负荷或者停车 意愿较低，产能出清兑现很难，预计供应收缩不明显，今年将以历史最高库存状态进入春节。 | 平衡表3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic and overseas lead prices showed different trends, with the domestic lead price stronger than the overseas one due to the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - The Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was still pessimistic [2]. - The lead waste required for both primary and secondary lead remained in short supply. The processing fee of lead concentrate for primary lead continued to decline, and the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was revised down again due to the new high of silver price, indicating that the raw material supply at the smelting end remained tight [2]. - In the short - term, lead is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited upside space. In the long - term, the possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed will be beneficial to the lead price, and the domestic macro situation is also optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Price Trend**: The domestic lead price was stronger than the overseas one this week because of the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [2]. - **Supply Side**: Lead waste and lead concentrate were in short supply. Primary lead had stable production due to by - product benefits but was not satisfied with the processing fee of imported ore. Secondary lead had low production willingness due to the small amount of scrap batteries [2]. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: The domestic demand in October was partly consumed by September policies and pre - holiday stockpiling. The lead import window opened, and the supply might be alleviated in the long run. Lead inventories might start to accumulate after the National Day, capping the upside of lead prices. In the short - term, lead would fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside [7]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: The possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed would be beneficial to the lead price, but the overseas macro impact on lead prices was relatively weak. The domestic macro situation was optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [9]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Option Strategy**: Sell wide - straddle options to collect premiums and stabilize returns [11]. - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: The current Shanghai lead main contract is in a narrow - range oscillation. The pressure level is around 17,300 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 16,600 yuan/ton. Adopt the strategy of high - selling and low - buying within the range. Try to go long lightly at 16,500 - 16,700 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 16,400 yuan/ton; try to go short at 17,100 - 17,200 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The lead basis fluctuates little, so no basis strategy is recommended. The calendar spread is stable, so no calendar spread strategy is recommended. The lead - zinc spread is stable, and an internal - external positive spread can be tried when the export window opens [13][14][15]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, short the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 17,400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 75% [16]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, long the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 16,500 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% [16]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than half a month, and the Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill on October 16 still failed, with no sign of an end to the shutdown in the short - term [17]. - **Negative Information**: LME lead inventories increased to 250,400 tons [18]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of SMM 1 lead daily average was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of imported lead concentrate was 16,520.78 yuan/ton, down 111.89 yuan/ton or 0.67% [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The annual rate of China's Q3 GDP and the annual rate of the US unadjusted CPI in September will be announced [19]. 3. Disk Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - **Domestic Market**: This week, the lead price oscillated within a narrow range at a high level, with strong bottom support, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton. Currently, profitable positions are mainly long in net positions, and foreign capital also focuses on long positions, indicating that the lead market in various institutions is mainly based on a long - term logic [19]. - **Domestic Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic basis structure was stable. The Shanghai lead calendar spread structure deviated slightly due to low trading volume but generally maintained a C - structure [22]. - **Overseas Market**: LME lead was weak this week, closing at $1,972.5/ton as of 15:00 on Friday. In terms of total positions, investment companies and credit institutions accounted for the majority of the positions. The LME lead calendar spread structure was stable, showing a deep C - structure [26][44]. - **Internal - External Spread Tracking**: The internal - external spread narrowed, and the import window opened [46]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline, and the decline trend of the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was obvious [48]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Information on the relationship between the import profit and loss of lead concentrate and import volume is presented, including relevant data and trends [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Information on the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots is provided [59]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The global lead ore market is in a tight situation this year. Although the smelting willingness of primary lead is still high, the shortage of lead raw materials may be a limiting factor [60]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - This week, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased slightly due to the return to work after the holiday [71].