Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the market digested the overseas information during the holiday and continued the pre - National Day price trend. Crude oil's rebound due to geopolitics was unsustainable under OPEC's production increase, and energy - chemical related varieties weakened. Precious metals led the bulls under the environment of US interest rate cuts and global political and economic uncertainties. The threat of the US to impose additional tariffs on China caused drops in US stocks, crude oil, and domestic commodities. Without external intervention, commodities will continue to move based on the weak supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - Unless the fundamentals have relatively certain expectations, it is advisable to mainly observe. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and strategies should focus on short - term or arbitrage to avoid overnight or single - leg positions to avoid macro - systematic risks. In terms of specific sectors, industrial products are weak and precious metals are strong [2][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - After the National Day holiday, the market digested the overseas information during the holiday and continued the pre - National Day price trend. Energy - chemical products were under pressure from the weakening crude oil price, building materials faced insufficient demand, and agricultural products' valuations declined due to oversupply and weakening demand [4]. - The US threat to impose additional tariffs on China led to drops in US stocks, crude oil, and domestic commodities on the Friday night session [4]. Sector and Variety Analysis - **Industrial Products**: Products like soda ash and PVC have sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. Without effective implementation of relevant measures, the overall industrial products will continue to decline [4]. - **Energy - Chemicals**: Crude oil's rebound relying on geopolitics was unsustainable. Energy - chemical related varieties continued to weaken to release risks [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Led the bulls under the environment of US interest rate cuts and global political and economic uncertainties [4]. Investment Strategies - Unless the fundamentals have relatively certain expectations, it is advisable to mainly observe. Strategies should focus on short - term or arbitrage to avoid overnight or single - leg positions to avoid macro - systematic risks [3][5]. Product Recommendation - The net value performance of the "Chasing the Wind No. 1" and "Chasing the Wind No. 2" strategy products is good. The "Chasing the Wind No. 2" product is in the free trial period and is worth trying. They can be subscribed through the path of [Nanhua Futures app - Research Report Selection - Strategy Research Selection] [5]. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital is 20.499 billion, with precious metals at 485 million, non - ferrous metals at 5.005 billion, etc. [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, etc. of various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, etc. [9]. - **Energy - Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. of energy - chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, etc. [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. of agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, etc. [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The latest round of Sino-US trade frictions since October 2025 is expected to have a significantly weaker impact on the market than the "reciprocal tariff" shock in April 2025, and the resulting fluctuations are relatively limited. In the short term, there should not be overly high expectations for Sino-US trade talks, and the uncertainty of subsequent tariff processes remains relatively high [1]. - Due to Trump's increase in tariffs on China, market risk aversion has significantly increased. The short - term shock is expected to cause a significant decline in A - share, but subsequent domestic policy uncertainties and the possibility of Sino - US leader meetings are expected to support the stock market [3]. - Gold and silver are still strong despite increased volatility. The long - term impact of trade tariff conflicts on precious metals is positive, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the relationship between the risk of following the decline under the liquidity trap and the positive impact of the safe - haven attribute [10]. - For copper, the expected supply shortage and the expected negative impact of tariff policies will compete. In the short term, the policy will disrupt the upward rhythm, and the futures price may enter a high - level shock [15]. - For aluminum, the current core factor affecting the price is the macro - situation. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For investors, it is recommended to operate cautiously, with light positions and small stop - losses. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - The overall supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate futures is expected to show a weakening shock trend in the range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [22]. - For industrial silicon, the price center will rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the price increase is limited due to inventory pressure. For polysilicon, the market risk is relatively high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [25]. - For steel products, the current overseas macro - environment is under pressure, and the subsequent development of Sino - US trade negotiations will be the core factor affecting asset prices. Currently, the overall situation is bearish [28]. - For iron ore, the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [29]. - For coking coal and coke, the second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products [30]. - For ferroalloys, the contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. - For crude oil, Trump's tariff threat has triggered market concerns about the economy and oil demand, and factors such as oversupply and weak demand have further intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, causing the oil price center to shift downward and increasing volatility [33]. - For LPG, the risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, but the decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market [36]. - For PTA - PX, the market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - For methanol, in the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150 [41]. - For PP and PE, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44][46]. - For PVC, the supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - For fuel oil, the supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - For asphalt, due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51]. Summaries by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. After the National Day holiday, the Sino - US trade friction has become the new focus of the market. The current supply - demand policies are advancing in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Since October 2025, Sino - US trade frictions have shown a new round of escalation. This friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the market than in April 2025. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index may exist, but the RMB is expected to remain generally stable [1]. - **Stock Index**: Trump's increase in tariffs has hit market risk appetite. The short - term shock is expected to cause a decline in A - share, but subsequent factors are expected to support the stock market. It is recommended to reduce long positions and manage risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Due to Trump's threat to increase tariffs, the market has entered a risk - aversion mode. It is expected that treasury bond futures will open significantly higher today, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the stock market and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider taking profits on previous long positions [4]. - **Container Shipping**: The increase in US tariffs is negative for the market sentiment. In the short term, the futures price is likely to decline, and a relatively bearish strategy or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong despite increased volatility. Long - term investment funds' positions and inventory have changed. This week, attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously and consider short - term trading opportunities [10][11]. - **Copper**: After Trump threatened to increase tariffs, copper prices fell. The supply shortage expectation and the tariff policy expectation will compete. In the short term, the price may be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels and consider option strategies [12][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, the macro - policy is the core factor affecting the price. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - **Zinc**: The price is suppressed by both the macro - situation and fundamentals. In the short term, a bearish logic is adopted, and an internal - external reverse spread strategy can be considered after the export window opens [18]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They may be affected by tariffs. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is restricted, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of tariffs [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to experience a short - term correction. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to grow. The futures price is expected to show a weakening shock trend in a certain range [22]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, and the polysilicon market is mainly focused on the establishment of the storage platform in October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. High risks are involved, and cautious participation is recommended [25]. - **Lead**: The macro - uncertainty has increased, and both supply and demand have increased. The price is expected to remain volatile with a certain downward possibility [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the steel market is bearish. The subsequent development of Sino - US trade and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session need to be focused on. It is recommended to buy options to layout for increased volatility [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, the downstream iron - water demand has support, but the steel demand is weak, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [28][29]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: The second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. A unilateral shock approach and a coking coal 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [30]. - **Silicon Iron, Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff threat has caused the oil price to fall to a five - month low. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The oil price center is expected to shift downward, and volatility will increase [32][33]. - **LPG**: The decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market. The risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, and the domestic chemical demand is stable [36]. - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment. The price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150. It is recommended to buy a small bottom position at low prices [41]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44]. - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is continuously loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [46]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - **Pure Benzene, Styrene**: The short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - **Asphalt**: Due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Urea Industry Weekly Report - Export Bottom - Seeking [1] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendation Core Contradiction - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The industry's internal drive is weak in the short - term [2]. - Domestic mainstream regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with North China's mainstream quotes ranging from 1,470 to 1,520 yuan/ton. The downstream compound fertilizer terminal's large - scale提货 did not start as expected during the holiday due to heavy rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to weak downstream fertilizer demand and continuous price decline [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation as the export expectation for the 01 contract has disappeared. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [5]. Trading - Type Strategy Recommendation - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Price Range**: UR2601 is expected to trade between 1,550 and 1,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions are recommended to be established on rallies above 1,750 yuan/ton; reverse arbitrage is recommended for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend. Attention should be paid to when the pre - National Day price - cut order - taking volume increases. Contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong contracts with peak - season demand expectations [12]. - **Spread Strategy**: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies; reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is recommended on rallies [12]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: None [13] Group 3: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1, with the opening date on October 15 and the latest shipping date on December 10. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [14]. - **Negative Information**: The daily output of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and in some periods, it exceeded 200,000 tons. Even when the daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous price decline has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market in September was still sluggish. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the market fundamentals have been tepid, resulting in a decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm [15] Next Week's Important Events to Follow - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items. On October 10 (US Eastern Time), the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China in response to China's export controls on rare - earth items and export controls on all key software. Attention should be paid to new developments in Sino - US relations next week [16] Group 4: Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea daily output fluctuated slightly between 195,000 and 201,000 tons around the holiday. With the shutdown of factories in Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, a significant increase from before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - holiday pre - orders, and new orders are urgently needed after the holiday [17]. - In the demand side, continuous rainfall in major agricultural provinces such as Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. In addition, large - scale shutdowns of regional compound fertilizer factories and the diminishing impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations have led to cautious replenishment of rigid demand and weak downstream stocking willingness [18]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [19] Industry Hedging Recommendation - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range for urea is predicted to be 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [24]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to their inventory. They can also buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for UR2601 is 25% in the range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the ratio for buying put options is 50%, and the ratio for selling call options (UR2601C1950) is 45 - 60 [24]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. The recommended buying ratio for UR2601 is 50% in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the ratio for selling put options (UR2601P1650) is 75% [24] Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyzed the seasonal production costs of urea from fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods, as well as the seasonal production profits of urea from fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [25][27][30] Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Tracked the seasonal daily output, weekly capacity utilization, weekly coal - based capacity utilization, and weekly natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [33][34] Upstream Inventory Tracking - Tracked the seasonal weekly enterprise inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and weekly port + inland inventory of Chinese urea [36][38][39] Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit of compound fertilizer, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, output, and production profit of melamine in different regions, and the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers in different regions [41][43][54] Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Tracked the seasonal average production and sales of urea, as well as the seasonal production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the cottonseed price has rebounded and the decline of cotton price has slowed down, the upcoming concentrated listing of new cotton will relieve the low inventory situation, and with the weakening downstream demand, the upward drive of cotton price is insufficient. In the long - term, due to the expansion of domestic textile production capacity and relatively low import quotas, the supply - demand of cotton in the new year may still be tight [1][4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - In late September, adverse weather in Xinjiang delayed the cotton picking. After the National Day holiday, the machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang started to be purchased. The purchase price first decreased and then increased with small fluctuations. In mid - and late October, the concentrated listing of new cotton will put pressure on cotton prices. The downstream peak season is weakening, and the cotton price rebound power is poor. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply - demand may still be tight due to import quota limitations [1][4][17] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The trend of cotton is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 fluctuating between 13,000 - 13,600. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The short - term basis is stable and may weaken later. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, when inventory is high, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [21] 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,325, down 205 (- 1.52%); 05 closed at 13,375, down 160 (- 1.18%); 09 closed at 13,550, down 160 (- 1.17%). Spot: CC Index 3128B was 14,775, up 22 (0.15%); 2227B was 12,932, up 21 (0.16%); 2129B was 15,039, up 28 (0.19%). Spinning yarn: futures price was 19,375, down 405 (- 2.05%); spot price was 20,460, down 120 (- 0.58%) [22][24] 3.2 This Week's Important Information 3.2.1 Bullish Information - As of September 26, the national new cotton picking progress was 1.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year; the delivery rate was 26%, up 10.3 percentage points year - on - year; the processing rate was 22%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. On October 8, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.02 yuan/kg [25] 3.2.2 Bearish Information - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.14 million hectares, up 7.5% year - on - year; the total output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, up 7.0% year - on - year [26] 3.2.3 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the output determination in Xinjiang, as well as the release of the USDA report, the growth and export of US cotton [27] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After the National Day holiday, funds flowed back. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in positions and price on the first trading day after the holiday, but the upward pressure was large due to hedging by some ginneries, and the rebound was weak [31] 3.3.2 Month - spread Structure - The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. Near - month contracts are weak due to supply increase and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34] 3.3.3 Basis Structure - This week, the cotton basis was stable as new cotton had not been fully supplied. On October 10, the basis of new machine - picked cotton in different regions of Xinjiang was in a certain range [38] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technology, Xinjiang's spinning mills have cost advantages and profits. Before the National Day, domestic spinning mills' profits improved. Recently, Xinjiang mills still have good profits, while those in the inland have slightly declined [40] 3.4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been high, but import quotas are tight. The additional 200,000 - ton quota has limited impact on the market, and the current import profit is still at a relatively high level [43] 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, but the output increase may narrow. The estimated import volume is 1.1 million tons. Domestic consumption is not overly pessimistic, with stable domestic demand and uncertain foreign sales [46][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - **Core Contradictions**: There are policy expectations (such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and environmental protection) and cost increase expectations for the far - month, which cannot be falsified for now. The near - term reality is average, with mediocre production and sales, and the mid - stream's inventory reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - **Lido Interpretation**: Cost still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. - **Risks Interpretation**: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream承接力, and uncertainty about peak - season performance. There is still an expectation of glass production line ignition [2]. - **Summary of Glass Situation**: On the fundamental side, the upper and middle - stream inventories of glass are at a high level, and weak real - world demand limits price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, with high mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei and weak phased restocking ability. In terms of valuation, there are still profits for coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and the willingness to ignite may increase if prices rise [4]. - **Summary of Soda Ash Situation**: The second phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and entered the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash continues. The downstream of light and heavy soda ash mainly conducts rigid restocking, and the upper - stream alkali plants are reducing inventories at a high level, with some relief of plant pressure. The expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass products has been reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, with no expectation of weakening, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. However, soda ash exports in August exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent. High overall inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit soda ash prices, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [4]. 3. Content Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - **Glass**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 31.16% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 81.8% [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.56% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 26.4% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1400 yuan/ton, and sell call options (FG601C1300) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Glass Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton, and sell put options (FG601P1100) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Glass Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1334, 1407, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 4, 0, and - 11 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.9% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1332, 1406, and 1240 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 12, - 3, and - 10 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.89%, - 0.21%, and - 0.8% respectively [7]. - **Glass Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.8 yuan/ton. Regional prices in North China, Northwest China, and Shandong increased slightly [6]. - **Soda Ash Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained mostly stable, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [9].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Fuhan (Investment Consulting License No. Z0020173) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are under marginal pressure, with high shipments, inventory accumulating above the seasonal level. Although downstream hot metal production provides support, steel demand is weak, inventories are piling up, and profits are declining, leading to the accumulation of industrial chain contradictions. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining in a range - bound oscillation. The short - term rhythm depends on whether macro expectations can support the upward valuation; otherwise, it's difficult for the price to have a trending upward movement [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 780 - 850, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.14% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in profits with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 840 - 850, and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) to collect premiums with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase iron ore in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in costs with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 780 - 790, and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790). If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Iron Ore Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and is expected to cut twice more this year, leading to loose global financial conditions and an expected upward movement of the global manufacturing PMI. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are short - term supply disruptions [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Despite high hot metal production, steel inventories are still high, putting pressure on the fundamentals. Although rebar production cuts have relieved inventory pressure, the transfer of hot metal to hot - rolled coil production has led to above - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils. Iron ore shipments have increased, with non - mainstream shipments at a seasonal high, and global iron ore shipments have turned from a cumulative year - on - year negative to positive. After pre - holiday steel mill restocking, port iron ore inventories have started to accumulate above the seasonal level. Macro - level positive news has been fully digested, and the anti - involution trend in the industrial sector has not continued. Steel mill profits continue to be under pressure [4][5]. 3.3 Iron Ore Price Data - **Futures Contract Closing Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 795, 774.5, and 753 respectively, with daily changes of 4.5, 3.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of - 10.5, - 11, and - 12 [4]. - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis on October 10, 2025, were - 6, 14.5, and 36 respectively, with daily changes of 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of 4.5, - 1, and 1.5 [4][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 788, 923, and 715 respectively [6]. - **Platts Index**: On October 10, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.85, 107.4, and 121.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.3, 1.55, and 1.8, and weekly changes of 1.85, 3.3, and 3.55 [7]. 3.4 Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption - related Data**: As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 241.54, with a weekly change of - 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.99. The 45 - port ore removal volume was 327, with a weekly change of - 9.4 and a monthly change of 9.22. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 751, with a weekly change of - 153 and a monthly change of - 92 [13]. - **Shipment and Arrival Data**: The global shipment volume was 3279, with a weekly change of - 196.4 and a monthly change of 522.8. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2727.4, with a weekly change of - 39.6 and a monthly change of 460.4. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7, with a weekly change of 248.2 and a monthly change of 160.7 [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The 45 - port inventory was 14024.5, with a weekly change of 24.22 and a monthly change of 199.18. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.19, with a weekly change of - 990.6 and a monthly change of 53.14. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.24, with a weekly change of - 3.35 and a monthly change of - 0.08 [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated and declined. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of decline. Short - term, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate with a downward trend, but the cease - fire process in Gaza may be repeated. Strategies can be relatively bearish or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping space or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For those hoping to book space based on orders and worried about rising freight rates (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1500 - 1550 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The decline in today's futures price is due to the initial cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and the possibility of Maersk resuming Red Sea transportation, as well as China's counter - measures against the US port fee on Chinese ships. The rise of the 10 - contract is because Maersk issued a November price increase letter [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factor**: Maersk will increase the FAK rates from major Asian ports to Rotterdam from November 3, with rates rising to $1625/TEU and $2500/FEU [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Maersk may resume Red Sea transportation; China will collect special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, with the fee increasing in stages [3][5]. EC Price and Related Data - **EC Basis**: On October 11, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was - 74.60, with a daily decline of 1.20 and a weekly decline of 156.52. Other contracts also had different basis changes [7]. - **EC Closing Price and Spread**: On October 11, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1121.1, up 0.11% daily and down 4.42% weekly. Different contract spreads also had corresponding changes [7]. Shipping Price and Index - **Container Spot Quotes**: Maersk's container quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed an upward trend in different departure dates in October [9]. - **Global Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60%, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82%, while the SCFI European route increased by 9.99%, and other indices had different changes [10]. Port Waiting Time - On October 10, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.656 days compared to the previous day, while Shanghai Port increased by 0.305 days. Other ports also had different waiting time changes [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On October 10, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships decreased by 0.013 compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor increased by 6 [22].

2025 10 11 3 4 Trump 100% Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 9 10 1.74% 3bp 1.77% 1 14 2026-2027 2 9 MLF 3000 PSL 883 3000 2011 1290 2025 10 11 1. 1.1 9 19 T2512 107.96 0.19% TF2512 105.655 0.02% TS2512 102.352 0.01% TL2512 114.02 0.75% 1.84% 2.06bp 1.76bp 1.5% 1.1 113.40 113.60 113.80 114.00 114.20 114.40 114.60 107.20 107.30 107.40 107.50 107.60 107.70 107.80 107.90 108.00 108.10 T2512.CFE TL2512.CFE(RHS) iFind 1.2 2 105.40 105.45 105.50 105.55 105.60 105.65 105.70 105.75 105.80 102.24 102.26 102.28 102.30 102.3 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The South China Commodity Index fell by -0.84% today based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3] - Among the sector indices, only the South China Black Index rose by 0.32%, while the rest declined. The South China Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -1.15%, and the South China Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.4% [1][3] - Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 0.49%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.38%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.23%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.15% [1][3] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Wire Rod index had the largest increase of 3.01%, and the Egg index had the largest decline of -3.37% [1][3] Group 2: Index Data Details Comprehensive and Sector Indices | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Change Points | Change Rate | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2572.47 | 2550.86 | -21.61 | -0.84% | 4.78% | 12.54% | 0.38 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1491.73 | 1474.58 | -17.15 | -1.15% | 16.66% | 2.89 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3573.12 | 3596.46 | -23.34 | -0.65% | -2.59% | 14.98% | -0.17 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6449.77 | 6475.78 | -26.01 | -0.40% | 4.47% | 13.55% | 0.33 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1604.70 | 1618.24 | -13.54 | -0.84% | -9.45% | 17.51% | -0.54 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1733.94 | 1749.24 | -15.29 | -0.87% | 4.91% | -2.37% | 19.83% | | Black Index NHFI | 2528.55 | 2520.44 | 8.11 | 0.32% | -0.12 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1060.79 | 1067.92 | -7.14 | -0.67% | -0.14% | 8.89% | -0.02 | | Mini Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1196.69 | 1186.06 | -10.63 | -0.89% | 0.74% | 0.07 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1023.68 | 1036.43 | -12.74 | -1.23% | -3.27% | 18.79% | -0.17 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 904.04 | 912.67 | -8.63 | -0.95% | -3.10% | 8.19% | -0.38 | | Refined Chemical Index NHCCI | 970.75 | 974.73 | -3.98 | -0.41% | 4.06% | 7.84% | -0.52 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 1063.69 | 1058.55 | 5.14 | 0.49% | -0.36% | 18.46% | -0.02 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 727.40 | 728.50 | -1.10 | -0.15% | | Oil and Oilseeds Index NHOOI | 1251.56 | 1264.19 | -12.63 | -1.00% | 0.59% | 13.24% | 0.04 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 901.50 | 898.06 | 3.44 | 0.38% | 7.18% | -0.02 | [3] Contribution of Single - variety Indices to Index Changes - For the South China Comprehensive Index, positive - contributing varieties include Iron Ore (14.40%), Methanol (2.66%), etc., and negative - contributing varieties include Palm Oil (-12.11%), Zinc (-19.34%), etc [3] - For the South China Mini Comprehensive Index, positive - contributing varieties include Iron Ore (5.13%), and negative - contributing varieties include PVC (-52.86%) [3] - For the South China Industrial Products Index, positive - contributing varieties include Iron Ore (7.52%), and negative - contributing varieties include Zinc (-19.34%) [3] - For the South China Metal Index, positive - contributing varieties include Coke (4.56%), and negative - contributing varieties include PVC (-3.51%) [3] - For the South China Energy and Chemical Index, positive - contributing varieties include Coke (5.84%), and negative - contributing varieties include Crude Oil (-3.86%) [3] - For the South China Agricultural Products Index, positive - contributing varieties include Apple (8.52%), and negative - contributing varieties include Palm Oil (-6.31%) [3] [6] Single - variety Index Changes in Some Sectors Energy and Chemical Sector - LPG rose by 0.35%, Crude Oil fell by -1.92%, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil fell by -1.87% [9] Black Sector - Coal fell by -1.84% [4] Agricultural Sector - Palm Oil fell by -1.38%, Rapeseed Oil fell by -1.82%, Rapeseed had a 0.02% increase, Live Pigs fell by -0.21%, Rapeseed Meal fell by -1.81% [6]

国债期货日报 2025/10/10 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 周五期债震荡走弱，全线收跌。现券收益率多数上行。资金面宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开市场逆回购 4090亿，净回笼1910亿。 观点：关注央行态度 盘面点评： 日内消息： 1.国家发展改革委和市场监管总局发文，治理价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序。 行情研判： 期债早盘震荡，午后走弱。在节后资金面宽松的环境下，近两个交易日短债表现较弱，而长债表现偏强，这 一走势未必能够持续。消息方面，传昨日进行的11000亿买断式逆回购边际利率有所下降，这意味着央行定 向降低银行负债成本，也意味着央行暂时更倾向于使用结构性工具进行调控，而降准降息将继续延后。短期 仍以震荡观点看待市场，交易不宜追高，多单逢低布局。 | 国债期货日度数据 | | --- | | | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...