source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 | EG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 4550-4700 | | | | | 空乙二醇期货来锁定利润， | | | | | | | | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | 跌 | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大 | EG2509P4450 | 买入 | | 10-30 | | | | | 跌，同时卖出看涨期权降低 | | | 50% | | | | | | 资金成本 | EG2509C4650 | 卖出 | | 60-100 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏 低，希望根据订单 | 空 | 为了防止乙二醇价格上涨而 抬升采购成本，可以在目前 | EG2509 | 买入 | 50% | 4300-4400 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with policy expectations yet to be disproven, and there is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic [2] - Bullish factors include anti - involution expectations, rising coal costs, commodity resonance, and the upward movement of the futures market stimulating speculative demand and driving a positive feedback between futures and spot prices [2] - Bearish factors are that the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved [2] - Policy expectations persist, and the futures market remains strong. Attention should be paid to the amplitude of the resonance between the macro and industrial sectors and wait for the next policy guidance [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for soda ash is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling glass prices, short glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1500 and sell call options (FG509C1500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising glass prices, buy glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 and sell put options (FG509P1200) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling soda ash prices, short soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1600 and sell call options (SA509C1600) with a 50% hedging ratio at 40 - 60. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising soda ash prices, buy soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 - 1250 and sell put options (SA509P1300) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 [1] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1461, 1362, and 1426 respectively, with daily increases of 1.67%, 4.21%, and 1.71%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 64, and - 35 respectively, with the (5 - 9) spread decreasing by 31 and the (9 - 1) spread increasing by 31 [2] Glass Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1289.4, an increase of 52.6 from the previous day. The prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase, such as a 30 increase in North China and a 10 increase in South China [5] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1539, 1440, and 1516 respectively, with daily increases of 1.38%, 2.27%, and 2.09%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 76, and - 23 respectively, with varying degrees of change [6] Soda Ash Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash and light soda ash in different regions all increased to varying degrees, such as a 50 increase in North China and a 70 increase in East China [7] Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on the daily output of float glass in China, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in China, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash in China, and the loss volume of soda ash in China, as well as the seasonal data of the basis of glass and soda ash contracts in different regions and the seasonal data of the daily sales - to - production ratio of glass in different regions [8][23][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures opened with a significant decline and then continued to fluctuate downward. By the close, the prices of EC monthly contracts showed mixed trends. The reduction in the spot cabin quotes of Maersk and ONE lowered the valuation of the current near - month contract futures prices, leading to a decline in futures prices. However, the potential for relatively low tariffs between the US and Europe and the expected recovery of trade have a certain positive impact on the far - month futures prices. The futures prices still have bottom support, and the SCFI European route has slightly rebounded. Near - month contracts are more likely to experience a short - term correction, but the overall trend may still be slightly downward with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Cabin Management**: For those who have already obtained cabins but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one wants to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. Market Data Analysis Position and Trading Volume Changes - For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 559 lots to 25,266 lots, short positions decreased by 236 lots to 31,305 lots, and trading volume decreased by 19,270 lots to 50,437 lots (bilateral) [1]. Basis Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 187.90 | 32.30 | 53.30 | | EC2510 | 873.00 | 56.40 | 85.50 | | EC2512 | 680.30 | 59.70 | 70.80 | | EC2602 | 881.70 | 43.50 | - 23.70 | | EC2604 | 1038.80 | 20.30 | - 32.30 | | EC2606 | 882.5 | - 11.10 | - 96.14 | [4][5] Futures Price and Spread Changes | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2212.6 | - 1.44% | - 2.35% | EC2508 - 2512 | 492.4 | 27.4 | 17.5 | | EC2510 | 1527.5 | - 3.56% | - 5.30% | EC2512 - 2604 | 358.5 | - 39.4 | - 119.7 | | EC2512 | 1720.2 | - 3.35% | - 3.95% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 850.9 | 12.0 | 21.3 | | EC2602 | 1518.8 | - 2.78% | 1.59% | EC2508 - 2510 | 685.1 | 27.4 | 32.2 | | EC2604 | 1361.7 | 0.15% | 2.43% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 192.7 | 3.3 | - 14.7 | | EC2606 | 1518.0 | 0.74% | 5.18% | EC2512 - 2602 | 201.4 | - 16.2 | - 94.2 | [5] Market News and Quotes Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $7 to $1822, and the total quote for 40GP increased by $14 to $3064 compared to the previous period. For ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam in mid - to - early August, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $493 to $2321, and the total quote for 40GP decreased by $500 to $3143 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2400.5 | 2421.94 | - 21.44 | - 0.89% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Route ($/FEU) | 3406 | 3407 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | XSI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2216 | 2248 | - 32 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2366 | 2348 | 18 | 0.77% | [8] Port - Related Data Global Main Port Waiting Times | Port | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 1.080 | 1.312 | - 0.232 | 0.455 | | Shanghai Port | 1.169 | 1.212 | - 0.043 | 1.423 | | Yantian Port | 1.253 | 0.868 | 0.385 | 0.565 | | Singapore Port | 0.556 | 0.513 | 0.043 | 0.554 | | Jakarta Port | 10.642 | 2.050 | 8.592 | 1.759 | | Long Beach Port | 1.909 | 1.927 | - 0.018 | 2.572 | | Savannah Port | 1.535 | 1.431 | 0.104 | 1.449 | [15] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal | Ship Type | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.794 | 15.843 | - 0.049 | 15.904 | | 3000+ | 14.861 | 15.037 | - 0.176 | 14.73 | | 1000+ | 13.134 | 13.269 | - 0.135 | 13.232 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 13 | 18 | - 5 | 11 | [23]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月25日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

南华期货硅产业链周报 ——宏观预期与成本推动，整体偏强运行 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年07月25日 一、周度总结 工业硅 【行情回顾】 本周工业硅期货震荡走强，加权指数合约收于9709元/吨，周环比上涨11.54%；成交量95.72万手，周环比 降低50.89%，持仓量56.83万手，周环比减少5万手；工业硅SI2509-SI2511月差维持back结构；仓单数量 49710手，周环比下降683手。 【产业表现】 本周硅产业链现货市场报价平稳。 供给：硅石报价平稳，工业硅及硅粉市场报价整体上涨，周度涨幅超20%，工业硅开工率小幅上扬，产量环 比增加605吨。 需求：有机硅市场报价环比上涨14.75%，开工率稳定，当前产量处于高位；铝合金市场仍处于淡季，报价平 稳，下游按需采购。 库存：本周工业硅周度库存环比下降0.755万吨，铝合金库存环比上涨，再生铝合金库存环比走弱。 【核心逻辑】 基本面看，工业硅处于落后产能出清的产业周期逻辑，供应过剩压力持续。丰水期临近 ...

Report Details 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The trading desk is advised to wait and see temporarily [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures fluctuated higher in the morning, declined in the afternoon, and plunged at the end of the session, with most closing down. In the cash bond market, yields initially fell by up to 4bp in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and then declined again after the market, halting the continuous upward trend. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds [2] - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 187.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, which improved market sentiment [2] 3.2 News and Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid - year work meeting on July 24, emphasizing that although the internal and external environment of the capital market remains complex, the certainty of high - quality economic development, macro - policy expectations, and the valuation repair of Chinese assets provide a basis for the stable and healthy operation of the market [3] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan mentioned coordinating treasury bond issuance with the Ministry of Finance during the session, which improved the sentiment of bond market bulls [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of over 600 billion yuan alleviated market tension. The central bank's supportive monetary policy stance is the last and strongest support for the bulls [4] - The A - share market adjusted during the session, with the broader market weaker than small and medium - cap stocks. The TMT sector, which had been continuously adjusting, rebounded, while sectors such as building materials and building decoration related to the Ya - Xia concept led the decline, and upstream resource stocks significantly adjusted. There was a divergence between the equity market and the commodity market, with commodities remaining strong [4] - The late - session plunge in treasury bond futures may have been affected by the strong performance of commodities [4] 3.4 Data Overview - Data for various treasury bond futures contracts (TS2509, TF2509, T2509, TL2509) including opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, as well as contract positions and trading volumes are provided. Data on various deposit - based inter - bank repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and their trading volumes are also presented [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: In the early third quarter, improved macro sentiment, supply disturbances, and the phenomenon of a non - typical off - season will cause futures prices to fluctuate upward; in the fourth quarter, after technological upgrades are completed and production capacity is released, futures prices will fluctuate downward. [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 14.66%. The trading volume was 2.39 million lots, a week - on - week increase of 62.6%. The open interest was 908,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 247,400 lots. The spread between the LC2509 - LC2511 contracts maintained a back structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,996 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,757 lots. [1] 3.1.2 Industry Performance - Supply: This week, the price increase of the mining end intensified, with an average increase of over 19%. The SMM Australian ore 6% CIF was quoted at $860/ton, and African ore was quoted at $801/ton, with an overall increase of over 17%. The price increase in the lithium salt market was smaller than that at the mining end, with lithium carbonate prices rising by about 9% and lithium hydroxide by about 5%. The basis quotes in the trader segment continued to weaken. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 1.96% week - on - week, and lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. - Demand: This week, the quotes of downstream material factories were differentiated, with price increases lower than those of lithium salts and lithium ores. The quotes of the lithium iron phosphate system increased by about 4%, and those of the ternary material system increased by about 2%. The quotes of the electrolyte end were stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate remained flat week - on - week, with a slight decrease in production; the production of ternary materials increased week - on - week; the production of lithium manganate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium cobaltate enterprises remained flat week - on - week. - Terminal: The quotes in the battery cell market were stable. This week, battery cell production remained stable. - Inventory: This week, domestic lithium ore inventories decreased week - on - week, lithium carbonate inventories increased by 0.39% week - on - week, the inventories of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week, and the inventories of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate increased week - on - week. [2] 3.1.3 Core Logic - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are all under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is progressing slowly. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. - There are two short - term logics in the current market: In the price decline cycle, the clearing pressure caused by the overcapacity of lithium salts is transmitted upstream to the mining end, and the loosening of ore prices in turn exacerbates the downward inertia of lithium salt prices, forming a negative feedback loop risk of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt decline". When the futures rebound is driven by macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, it creates a certain hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, stimulates the release of production enthusiasm, drives the consumption of lithium ore, and promotes the rise of lithium ore prices, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price follow - up". As lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits gradually increase, the operating rate will gradually increase in the future, and finally return to the fundamental situation of demand - based pricing. - Enterprises are continuously optimizing the production process through production line technological upgrades, driving the continuous decline of production costs. The steep cost curve formed by cost differences in the past is gradually flattening. This "collapse - style" cost reduction not only weakens the support of traditional high costs for prices but also becomes the core force driving the decline of lithium carbonate prices. [2][4] 3.1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. [4] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - Enterprises should seize the window period for planned production; speculative investors are advised to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. [4] 3.1.6 Bullish Interpretations - As lithium ore and lithium salt prices continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances gradually increases. - The current situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market. - The production scheduling on the demand side has increased more than expected. [4] 3.1.7 Bearish Interpretations - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to be large, and high inventories are suppressing ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have led to a decrease in the costs of some high - cost technology routes, delaying the capacity clearing. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - The report provides detailed weekly price data for the lithium - battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, showing price changes, week - on - week changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate weighted index contract was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10,175 yuan and a week - on - week increase of 14.66%. [5] 3.3 Lithium Ore 3.3.1 Import - The report presents the seasonal chart of the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate by country (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Rwanda). [11] 3.3.2 Production - It shows the seasonal charts of the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and sample lithium mica mines in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent. [13] 3.3.3 Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium ore (including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader's spot inventory at major ports) and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples in lithium salt factories in terms of LCE equivalent. [15] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Operating Rate - The operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 1.96% week - on - week to 48.6%. Among them, the operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises decreased by 0.64% to 52.61%, the operating rate of lithium mica enterprises increased by 2.97% to 58.18%, the operating rate of salt lake enterprises decreased by 13.25% to 56.22%, and the operating rate of recycling material enterprises decreased by 0.34% to 20.5%. [23] 3.4.2 Production - The weekly production of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week to 18,630 tons. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased by 0.64% to 9,264 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica increased by 0.3% to 5,115 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lake materials decreased by 13.25% to 2,847 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate from recycling materials decreased by 0.4% to 1,404 tons. [31] 3.4.3 Import - The report shows the seasonal charts of the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate (cumulative value since the beginning of the year and monthly value) and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country (Chile and Argentina). [32][34] 3.4.4 Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% week - on - week to 143,170 tons. Among them, smelter inventories decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, downstream inventories increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons, and other inventories increased by 3.83% to 44,970 tons. [38] 3.4.5 Profit - The report provides charts of the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally (including the profit of the sulfate method and the sulfuric acid method for lithium carbonate), the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate. [39][42] 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Operating Rate - The report shows the seasonal charts of the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [44][46] 3.5.2 Production - It presents the seasonal charts of the total production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [48][51] 3.5.3 Inventory - The report provides the seasonal charts of the total inventories of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate industries. [53][55] 3.5.4 Profit - It shows the profit charts of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate, as well as the theoretical cost chart of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. [57][58] 3.6 Terminal Battery Cells 3.6.1 Production - The report shows the production data of SMM lithium batteries (total production, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, production of SMM ternary batteries, and production of other types of batteries), the monthly production data of SMM power battery cells (total, ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and other types), the seasonal chart of the monthly production of SMM power battery cells (total), and the seasonal chart of the monthly production of Chinese energy - storage battery cells. [60] 3.6.2 Installation Volume - It presents the seasonal charts of the total installation volume of Chinese lithium batteries, the installation volume of LFP batteries, and the installation volume of NCM batteries. [63][64] 3.6.3 Battery Cell Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium batteries (including lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries, energy - storage batteries, and power batteries), the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of Chinese power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate), and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of SMM Chinese power battery cells (ternary). [66][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The rise of ferroalloys is mainly driven by strong policy expectations, macro - sentiment, and the increase in coal - based prices on the cost side, and the short - term outlook is optimistic. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small. Silicomanganese is in a destocking trend, and although the inventory of ferrosilicon is high, coal prices support the price of ferrosilicon. However, there is uncertainty about whether the price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan and the enterprise meeting have stimulated market confidence, but there are uncertainties in the specific implementation and the policy may deviate significantly from market expectations. If the coal price increase is a short - term fluctuation, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [3][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy's Strong Expectations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. The ferroalloy industry has relatively serious over - capacity in the steel industry. Market expectations are that ferroalloy prices will rise based on the price changes during the 2015 supply - side reform [4][5] Ferroalloy Enterprises' Anti -内卷 Symposium - Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy has not been implemented and it is uncertain whether it includes the ferroalloy industry, the internal meeting of the ferroalloy industry verifies market expectations. Due to the relatively low price of the manganese ore market and the low inventory of manganese ore in production enterprises, production enterprises have actively replenished their stocks, boosting the rise of ferroalloys [9] Increase in Coal - based Costs - The continuous increase in coking coal prices has led to an increase in ferroalloy costs because of the high correlation between ferroalloy costs and coal - based prices. With the coking coal main contract hitting the daily limit for many consecutive days, there is a possibility of a supplementary increase in ferroalloy futures [18] Future Sustainability - There is uncertainty about whether the ferroalloy price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan has uncertainties, and the policy may deviate from market expectations. If the coal price increase is short - term, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, maintaining a narrow sideways oscillation with a downward - shifting center of fluctuation and low market activity. The support below the market comes from the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side is weakening in both time and space dimensions [3]. - The operating logic of the crude oil market has not changed, and the market is in the adjustment phase after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. It is still supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and other countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [3]. - There is a lack of clear guidance in the news of the crude oil market recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations, the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, etc. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC+ increases production in September [3]. - Currently, the crude oil market is in a narrow - range adjustment phase. The demand - side support is limited as the seasonal effect fades. Next week's macro - dynamics may bring new guidance to the crude oil market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - Iran and three European countries (the UK, France, and Germany) started a new round of nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25. This is their first meeting since the cease - fire in June, and the deputy - foreign - minister - level talks will be held behind closed doors [4]. - In June, China's naphtha imports reached a new high at 1.6081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.61% and a year - on - year increase of 51.12%. The high - level imports in the second quarter were driven by supply and cost factors. The production in the second quarter was 47.0415 million tons, a 2.35% decrease from the first quarter, and the price of imported naphtha was more competitive due to the previous decline in crude oil prices. The average import price in June was $577.54 per ton, the lowest of the year [5]. - Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea ports has been suspended due to new port - entry safety regulations. The situation is expected to be resolved in one or two days [5]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 18 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M+2 | 69.42 | 69.18 | 69.28 | 0.24 | 0.14 | | WTI Crude M+2 | 65.31 | 65.13 | 66.05 | 0.18 | - 0.74 | | SC Crude M+2 | 501.2 | 498.7 | 504.1 | 2.5 | - 2.9 | | Dubai Crude M+2 | 68.41 | 67.85 | 67.85 | 0.56 | 0.56 | | Oman Crude M+2 | 71.48 | 70.7 | 71.03 | 0.78 | 0.45 | | Murban Crude M+2 | 72.33 | 71.36 | 70.71 | 0.97 | 1.62 | | EFS Spread M+2 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.67 | 0.11 | - 0.9 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M+2 - M+3) | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.93 | 0.14 | - 0.11 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M+2 - M - 3) | 1.56 | 0.68 | 1.89 | 0.88 | - 0.33 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.1 | - 0.04 | | SC Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 5.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | - 0.2 | - 7.3 | | SC - Dubai (M+2) | 1.0207 | 1.6568 | 3.7559 | - 0.6361 | - 2.7352 | | SC - Oman (M+2) | - 1.9993 | - 1.0532 | 0.5459 | - 0.9461 | - 2.5452 | [7]