Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of crude oil in the fourth quarter are bearish, but it is difficult for prices to decline significantly due to multiple supports [1] - The price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak but difficult to fall sharply. The support level is around $60 - 62 per barrel for Brent, and in extreme cases, it may reach above $72 per barrel [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Core Views - Macro - level: The global economy shows a pattern of "weak recovery but no recession". The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in September, October, and December will reduce the holding cost of the commodity market, provide liquidity support for crude oil, and prevent a sharp decline due to macro - pessimism [1] - Demand side: Demand remains resilient as the macro - economy is not in recession. High cracking spreads of refined oil products and inventory replenishment in the US and Europe, along with global off - balance - sheet demand, form double supports [2] - Supply side: The implementation rate of OPEC+ production increase is difficult to improve significantly, and the incremental potential of US shale oil is limited. The actual supply increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the theoretical value [3] - Global pattern: The regional supply - demand differentiation will continue, with tight supply in the US and Europe and relatively loose supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. Geopolitical conflicts may break the loose supply expectation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [3] 1.3 Market Outlook - The core operating range for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is $60 - 70 per barrel, with the price fluctuating due to short - term macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances [7] - Investors are advised to go long when Brent is at $60 - 62 per barrel and go short at $68 - 70 per barrel, with stop - loss levels set below $58 per barrel and above $72 per barrel respectively [7] Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors, showing a volatile and weak trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] - In July, the market was driven by a mix of long and short factors; in August, it was first bearish and then bullish; in September, the market focus switched rapidly between long and short factors [10] Chapter 3: Key Focus Points 3.1 Macro - level - The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 (25BP in September, and expected 25BP each in October and December) will reduce the holding cost of crude oil, and the non - commercial net long positions of WTI have significant room for replenishment [16] - The inflation pressure in the US and the eurozone has not completely subsided. Crude oil, as an anti - inflation commodity, has room for valuation repair [18] - Attention should be paid to the risk of "policy effectiveness verification". If the US manufacturing PMI is weak and non - farm employment decreases, it may suppress crude oil demand expectations; otherwise, the OVX index may rise [20] - External pressure on the Fed has weakened market confidence in policy independence, increasing the "dollar credit weakening" expectation. The short - term crude oil price is more driven by macro - sentiment [21] 3.2 Demand side - In the US and Europe, the cracking spreads of diesel are high, inventories are low, and refinery capacity is constrained. The expected lower temperature in Europe in the fourth quarter will increase heating demand and support cracking spreads [25] - Global off - balance - sheet demand, including inventory replenishment in China, the US, and floating storage in Russia and Iran, will absorb 30 - 43 barrels per day of supply in the fourth quarter, slowing down the inventory accumulation [29] 3.3 Supply side - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 13.7 barrels per day starting from October, but the implementation rate is expected to be around 75% in the fourth quarter, with an actual increase of about 80 barrels per day due to capacity and policy constraints [34] - The incremental potential of US shale oil is limited due to profit and cost constraints. The output increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than 10 barrels per day [36] 3.4 Global Pattern - The global crude oil market will maintain a pattern of "tight in the US and Europe, and relatively loose in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific" in the fourth quarter, but geopolitical risks may change the situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [40] - The supply from Russia is at risk due to short - term facility disturbances and long - term regulatory and tariff pressures. The restart of the Iran - Israel conflict may disrupt the supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [42] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Overview - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market showed a pattern of "supply expansion, demand differentiation, and increased short - term surplus pressure" [44] - On the supply side, OPEC+ completed the voluntary production cut exit plan and started to increase production in September. Non - OPEC supply remained resilient [44] - On the demand side, the global growth rate slowed down, and institutional forecasts were divergent. Asia - Pacific became the core of growth, and the demand for chemical raw materials increased [44] - There was a production - demand surplus in 2025, and the Brent price is expected to oscillate between $55 - 75 per barrel in the long - term [45] 4.2 Global Crude Oil Industry Chain Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil monthly spreads showed a significant differentiation pattern. Brent and WTI maintained a slight Backwardation structure, while Dubai and domestic SC crude oil monthly spreads were weak [48][49] - The regional spreads of crude oil showed a pattern of "strengthening across the Atlantic and reversing in Eurasia". The Brent - WTI spread strengthened, and the Dubai - WTI spread reversed from a premium to a discount [52] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil cracking spreads showed a clear differentiation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline". The diesel spread may remain high in the short - term, while the gasoline spread is difficult to improve [55] 4.4 Scenario Deduction - Base scenario (probability 60%): The fourth - quarter crude oil market will show a pattern of "basic supply - demand balance, macro - level support but lack of demand highlights". Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel [73][74] - Downward scenario (probability 25%): Triggered by excessive supply growth and weakening demand buffer, Brent crude oil may fall to $58 - 60 per barrel [75] - Upward scenario (probability 15%): Triggered by the resonance of sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic recovery, Brent crude oil may break through $75 per barrel [76] 4.5 Core Conclusions and Tracking Suggestions - The essence of the fourth - quarter crude oil market is the dynamic balance between the actual supply increase and off - balance - sheet demand buffer. Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel without sudden geopolitical supply disruptions or excessive inventory accumulation [78] - Attention should be paid to the risks of economic recession, OPEC+ over - production, and shale oil incremental increase, which may lead to a downward break of the oil price [78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, with the intensive production capacity expansion temporarily ending, the core focus of polyolefins will shift to digesting existing production capacity [1]. - Currently, polyolefin profits are significantly compressed, and cost support is strengthening. Particularly for PP, if the low - profit situation persists, high - maintenance levels may continue, providing bottom support [1]. - In Q3, overseas supply increased while demand remained weak. China may passively absorb global surplus resources, leading to an increase in net imports and hindering the "reduce imports, increase exports" strategy [1]. - Polyolefin demand was weak in the second half of the year. Traditional downstream peak seasons underperformed, and the growth of major terminal industries slowed, limiting raw material demand. The introduction of new consumption - stimulating policies is expected to improve demand [2]. - The expected price ranges for Q4 are 6800 - 7300 for PP2601 and 6900 - 7500 for L2601. Recommended strategies include going long on PP at low valuations in the short - term, range - trading for L, positive spreads for short - term PP in monthly spreads, reverse spreads for L, and widening the P - L spread if the downward trend continues [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In Q3, the polyolefin market showed a generally weak and volatile trend. Although it rose due to "anti - involution" policies and related news, the gains were unsustainable due to loose supply and weak demand [5]. - The Q3 market can be divided into three stages: from mid - July to mid - August, polyolefins rose driven by "anti - involution" sentiment and coking coal cost support, but the increase was mainly emotion - and cost - driven; from mid - August to late August, the market was boosted by news of South Korean capacity adjustments, but the weak reality of supply - demand led to a rapid retracement of gains; from late August to late September, the traditional peak season was weak, with slow inventory reduction and low prices [6][7][9]. 2. Core Concerns 2.1 Slowing Production Expansion, Pressure from Existing Supply - This year's new polyolefin production capacity expansion was mainly concentrated in H1. PE added 303 million tons with a growth rate of 9.03%, and PP added 285 million tons with a growth rate of 6.48%. In H2, the pace slowed, with PE expected to add 180 million tons and PP 170 million tons. In Q4, PP's new capacity will be limited, while PE is expected to add 140 million tons [11]. - The total polyolefin production capacity expansion this year was higher than in previous years. PE's annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 14.39% (LLDPE: 18.31%), and PP's is 10.35%. By September 22, PE's cumulative production increased by 18.01% year - on - year, and PP's by 17.15%. The core issue in Q4 is how to digest existing production capacity [12]. 2.2 High Supply Leads to High Maintenance - In H2, high supply led to high maintenance of upstream polyolefin devices. In Q3, PE's device maintenance losses increased by 18.99% year - on - year, and PP's by 10.80%. In September, PE's single - month maintenance losses reached 394,800 tons (up 65.26% year - on - year), and PP's reached 495,100 tons (up 25.70% year - on - year) [15]. - PE devices are mainly oil - and coal - based, with most maintenance being planned. PP devices, especially PDH routes, are more sensitive to profits. In September, PDH device profits dropped to below - 300 yuan/ton, and the PP - propylene spread narrowed, leading to production cuts [16]. - In Q4, although the planned maintenance in October will decrease, high unexpected maintenance may continue, especially for PP. If profits remain low, high - maintenance levels may support prices [17]. 2.3 "Reduce Imports, Increase Exports" Trend Hindered - In the first three quarters, the "reduce imports, increase exports" trend was significant. By August, PE's cumulative imports decreased by 74,800 tons year - on - year, and exports increased by 151,400 tons. PP's imports decreased by 234,000 tons, and exports increased by 472,500 tons [31][35]. - However, in Q3, overseas supply - demand pressure increased. For PE, North American supply increased while demand was weak, and LLDPE imports may increase in Q4. For PP, weak global demand and increased local supply in Southeast Asia may hinder exports [32][35]. 2.4 Weak Demand in H2 - Polyolefin demand growth slowed in H2. In H1, PE's apparent demand growth rate was 10.5% (up 7.8% year - on - year), and PP's was 11.3% (up 7.6% year - on - year). By August, PE's cumulative demand growth rate dropped to 8.9%, and PP's remained at around 11% [39]. - Traditional downstream peak seasons were weak. PE's agricultural film production and sales season started late, and the recovery slope of the start - up rate was gentle. PP's "Golden September and Silver October" was lackluster, with most downstream industries' orders not improving significantly, and inventory accumulation [40][44]. - The growth of terminal consumption in express delivery, household appliances, and the automotive industry slowed in H2, suppressing polyolefin demand. Without new consumption policies, the supply - demand pressure may remain high [58][59]. 3. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - In Q3, PE's production profits from various routes were compressed. Except for coal - based routes with positive profits, other routes were in the red. PE devices were less sensitive to profit fluctuations, and the overall start - up rate was less affected by profits, lacking strong cost support [67]. - PP's profits from various routes also declined in Q3. MTO and PDH devices, which are more sensitive to profits, account for a certain proportion of PP's production capacity, providing some cost - side support. In Q4, the changes in methanol and propane prices will be the focus [71]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **PE**: Supply is expected to increase as devices restart after the September maintenance peak, and new production capacity may come on - stream. Import volume may also increase. Demand is growing month - on - month but with weak year - on - year growth. PE inventory may accumulate again after a short - term decline. Key factors to watch include upstream device commissioning progress, import arrivals, demand recovery, and policy changes [77]. - **PP**: New production capacity in Q4 is limited, and supply growth is expected to be slow due to low - profit - induced potential production cuts. Demand is "not peaking in the peak season" and is expected to grow limitedly without new policies. Exports may also face pressure. PP inventory is expected to be stable from October to November and may increase in December. Key factors to watch include upstream device operation, new capacity release, and new consumption policies [81].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the logic of low apple premium fruit rate may support price increase before the end of the year, but there may be a situation of high opening and low closing later. For AP2511 and AP2512 contracts, the delivery logic will support price increase, while the AP2601 contract may be a watershed with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The price fluctuation range of the AP2601 contract in Q4 is predicted to be 8300 - 9300, with an overall structure of rising first and then falling [2] - The later trend of apples may replicate the 23/24 production season. The AP2511 and AP2512 contracts still have the possibility of further increase, but the AP2601 contract as the main contract has a low possibility of maintaining a high price [26] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3 2025, the apple futures price fluctuated and rose, with a quarterly increase of nearly 14% and more than 1000 points. The core factor was the concern that the low premium fruit rate would lead to fewer deliverable fruits. There were three stages of increase: in July, affected by the lower - than - expected quality of early - maturing varieties and low inventory of late Fuji, the price rose, with a large - amplitude callback at the end of July and early August; from August to early September, due to the prominent problem of premium fruit rate of Gala and bad weather, the price rose with better continuity, and there was a 4% decline on September 9; from mid - to late September, after the decline on September 9 was quickly repaired, the price continued to rise, reaching a new high of 8619 on September 29 [3] Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.1 This year's apple quality problems are numerous - **Inventory situation**: In the 24/25 season, due to the concern of over - production, the入库 amount was lower than expected. The de - stocking speed was fast before June and slowed down after entering the off - season. As of September 25, the national apple inventory was 14.79 million tons according to Zhuochuang data and 12.18 million tons according to Steel Union data, both slightly lower than last year and at a historically low level [8] - **Yield situation**: The apple planting area in the 25/26 season is similar to that in the 24/25 season. According to bagging data, Zhuochuang predicts a yield of 3659.04 million tons, a 2.03% year - on - year decrease, while Steel Union predicts 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase. Overall, the yield change is about ±2% compared with last year. After entering the bag - removing period, the small fruit size of late Fuji became prominent, and the national yield is likely to be revised down [13][14] - **Quality situation**: This year's apple quality problems were prominent in early - maturing fruits, including small fruit size, green - returning, and water - cracking. The price of early - maturing Qin Yang showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. The quality problems of Gala apples were mainly fruit rust and water - cracking, with a serious market polarization. The size of Western early Fuji was smaller than before, and the price first rose and then fell. The price of Shandong Red General also declined. The price of early - picked Fuji was higher than last year, but the size of late Fuji was smaller than last year, and the National Day rain may affect the quality [19][20] 3.2 How many deliverable fruits are there? - Due to the poor quality of apples in the 25/26 production season, the number of deliverable fruits will be far less than that in the 24/25 production season. For now, it's impossible to estimate the number of apples meeting the delivery rules. The AP2510 and AP2511 contracts may have high - price deliveries, and the AP2601 contract may have the most intense delivery game. The 03, 04, and 05 contracts have great uncertainties and are more affected by consumption factors [24] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Apple Valuation Feedback - Using simple statistics, the current apple valuation is at about 75% of the past five - year level, relatively high but still with upward space. Since the listing of apples, the current price is less than 50%. The apple futures delivery rules have been modified many times. There is a possibility that the later trend of apples will replicate the 23/24 production season [25] 4.2 Apple Supply - Demand Outlook - Apple supply is basically determined with the harvest of late Fuji, and the final confirmation is when the cold - storage inventory data is released. This year, the inventory may be higher due to the expected yield reduction, late harvest, small fruit size, and poor quality. The consumption end needs to focus on key nodes such as the Spring Festival, and the apple price has tended to decline after the Spring Festival in the past few years [28]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, the technical form is also strong with potential for further upward movement. London gold has reached above 3800, and its resistance level has shifted up to 4000; London silver's resistance has lifted to 50. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday and the increase in short - term futures positions, it is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [2][5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to rise strongly. Gold broke through the 3800 mark and reached a new high, while platinum and silver also hit stage highs, and palladium was close to its July high. The recent rise in precious metals is due to the influx of medium - to - long - term ETF investment demand and short - term futures capital buying, driven by concerns about the Fed's independence, the upcoming interest - rate cut cycle, and the risk of a government shutdown caused by the difficult passage of the US temporary budget bill. The House passed a temporary budget bill on September 19 to maintain government funding until November 21, but the Senate's vote on the same day did not reach the passing threshold. With the approaching National Day holiday and the large previous gains in precious metals, there is an increased risk of a short - term pullback due to profit - taking. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3862.9 per ounce, up 1.42%; US Silver 2512 contract closed at $47.11 per ounce, up 0.97%. SHFE Gold 2512 main contract closed at 866.52 yuan per gram, up 1.35%; SHFE Silver 2512 contract closed at 10939 yuan per kilogram, up 3.92% [2]. Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations are cooling. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 2.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 29.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 67.6%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 16.6%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.9%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1011.73 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 159.51 tons to 15521.35 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 31.4 tons to 1189.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons in the week ending September 19 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week's key data includes the non - farm payrolls report on Friday and US ISM PMI during the week. There will also be many speeches by Fed officials. On Tuesday at 18:00, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson will speak. On Wednesday at 01:00, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 07:10, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; at 08:30, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson will speak. On Thursday at 22:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak. On Friday at 18:05, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the farewell symposium of the Dutch central bank governor [4]. Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract is at 866.52 yuan per gram, up 1.22%; SGX Gold TD is at 862.5 yuan per gram, up 1.13%; CME Gold main contract is at $3862.9 per ounce, up 1.93%; SHFE Silver main - continuous contract is at 10939 yuan per kilogram, up 2.89%; SGX Silver TD is at 10878 yuan per kilogram, up 3.1%; CME Silver main contract is at $47.11 per ounce, up 1.61% [6]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 68628 kilograms, up 4.26%; CME gold inventory is 1242.4729 tons, down 0.0003 tons; SHFE gold holdings are 263220 lots, down 0.41%; SPDR gold holdings are 1011.73 tons, up 0.6%; SHFE silver inventory is 1189.648 tons, up 2.71%; CME silver inventory is 16531.0249 tons, up 0.21%; SGX silver inventory is 1216.965 tons, down 2.83%; SHFE silver holdings are 508967 lots, down 6.48%; SLV silver holdings are 15521.351058 tons, up 1.04% [13][16]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 97.9486, down 0.25%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1276, up 0.26%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46316.07 points, up 0.15%; WTI crude oil spot is at $63.45 per barrel, down 3.45%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10428.5 per ton, up 2.19%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.15%, down 1.19%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.8%, down 1.1%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52%, down 8.77% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic situation shows marginal improvement in the economic cycle, but there are still pressures in the future, and policy support is necessary. The new policy - based financial instruments can play a role in stabilizing growth and boosting investment. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision depends on data [2]. - For different financial products: - Stock index: It is expected to be strong under the influence of positive factors, but due to the release of important data during the holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - Treasury bond: There is a lack of positive drivers in the bond market, and it is recommended to close positions and wait and see before the festival [5]. - Container shipping: The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The 12 - contract can focus on low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see or intraday short - term trading strategy [6]. - Precious metals: They are strong in the medium - and long - term, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday due to the approaching National Day and increased short - term positions [11]. - Copper: The supply - side problems of the Grasberg copper mine have a long - term impact on copper prices, and it is not recommended to chase the high price in the short term [13]. - Aluminum and related products: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Zinc: It is in a situation of mixed long and short factors, with a slow downward center of gravity, and it is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The market is difficult to have large fluctuations before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce positions [19]. - Tin: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback [20]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment is average [23]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [24]. - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc.): The market shows a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand and a small reduction in inventory, but the de - stocking pressure is still significant. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - Iron ore: It is under the dual influence of the exhaustion of macro - positive factors and the peak of fundamentals, and the price is in a weak - fluctuating pattern [29]. - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal supply is strong, and the coke price increase has been implemented. The short - term disk may face downward pressure, and the medium - and long - term needs to pay attention to policy and demand changes [31]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: There is cost support, and the term structure is gradually improving, but there is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [33]. - Crude oil: The geopolitical boost to oil prices has faded, and there are still uncertainties in the market. Investors need to focus on risk control [35]. - PTA - PX: The price rebounds at a low level, but the polyester peak season is limited. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [40]. - MEG - bottle chips: The demand has improved marginally, but it is still in a pressured pattern. It is expected to fluctuate between 4100 - 4300 yuan [45]. - Methanol: It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the sold put options can continue to be held [46]. - PP: The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the start - up of marginal devices and the opportunity of buying at a low price [49]. - PE: It is in a weak - fluctuating pattern, and the upward space is limited [51]. - Pure benzene and styrene: They follow the cost side to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider expanding the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [53]. - Fuel oil: It is recommended to wait and see due to the limited upward driving force of cracking [54]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - Asphalt: The peak season has no super - expected performance. It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes, and pay attention to position control during the holiday [58]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: They are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions at a low price [59]. - Urea: It is in a pattern of support at the bottom and suppression at the top, and the 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [61]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: They are in a fluctuating pattern. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass has a problem of high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [62][63]. - Livestock: For pigs, it is recommended to short at a high price; for oilseeds, they are in a weak - fluctuating pattern at the bottom; for oils, the far - month palm oil is promising; for soybeans, it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions; for corn and starch, the market is weak; for cotton, it is necessary to pay attention to the purchase during the National Day [65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: There are various domestic and international policies and events, such as the new policy - based financial instruments of 500 billion yuan, and overseas events like the possible government shutdown in the US and the situation in the Middle East [1]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's index was strong, and the capital inflow increased. Under the influence of positive factors, it is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3][4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The previous trading day's bond price fell, and the yield rose. The new policy - based financial instruments may delay the RRR cut and interest - rate cut, and it is recommended to close positions and wait and see [5]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was stable or increased. The price decline was affected by Trump's tariff increase and the price adjustment of some shipping companies. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price continued to rise, driven by investment demand and short - term capital. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday due to the approaching National Day and increased short - term positions [9][11]. - **Copper**: The Grasberg copper mine accident led to a significant increase in copper prices. The accident will have a long - term impact on the global copper supply chain, and it is not recommended to chase the high price in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is affected by supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina has an oversupply problem, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options; cast aluminum alloy has a pattern of mixed long and short factors and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15][16]. - **Zinc**: The price was weak, and the supply was in a surplus state. The short - term was affected by macro and gold prices, and the long - term was dominated by the supply - demand relationship. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fell, and the market was difficult to have large fluctuations before the festival. The supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel were affected by different factors, and it is recommended to reduce positions [19]. - **Tin**: The price rose due to the supply - side tightening caused by Indonesia's action to cut off illegal mining routes. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price increased slightly, and the spot market was cold. It is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot market was stable. There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment is average [22][23]. - **Lead**: The price was weak, and the supply was affected by the production of primary and secondary lead. The demand was general, and there was some pre - holiday stockpiling. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [24]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market showed a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand and a small reduction in inventory, but the de - stocking pressure was still significant. The disk was expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: The price declined, and the supply was loose. The demand was affected by the steel mill's profitability and the downstream inventory. The price was in a weak - fluctuating pattern [27][29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply was strong, and the coke price increase was implemented. The short - term disk may face downward pressure, and the medium - and long - term needs to pay attention to policy and demand changes [30][31]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The price fell, and there was cost support. The term structure was gradually improving, but there was a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price fell significantly, and the geopolitical boost to oil prices faded. There are still uncertainties in the market, and investors need to focus on risk control [35]. - **PTA - PX**: The price rebounded at a low level, and the polyester peak season was limited. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [37][40]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand improved marginally, but it was still in a pressured pattern. It is expected to fluctuate between 4100 - 4300 yuan [41][45]. - **Methanol**: The price was stable, and the inventory decreased. It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the sold put options can continue to be held [46]. - **PP**: The price increased slightly, and the supply and demand had their own characteristics. The downward space was limited, and it was recommended to pay attention to the start - up of marginal devices and the opportunity of buying at a low price [47][49]. - **PE**: The price increased slightly, and the supply was expected to increase. The demand recovery was slow, and the market was in a weak - fluctuating pattern [50][51]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the supply and demand situation was different. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider expanding the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [52][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price was stable, and the supply and demand situation was complex. The cracking upward driving force was limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply was narrowing, the demand was weak, and the upward driving force was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - **Asphalt**: The price was stable, and the supply increased while the demand was affected by weather. The inventory structure improved, and it is recommended to try long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes and pay attention to position control during the holiday [57][58]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The price declined, and the supply and demand situation was complex. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions at a low price [59]. Agricultural Products - **Livestock**: The pig price continued to fall, and the market was in a situation of oversupply. It is recommended to short at a high price [65]. - **Oilseeds**: The market was affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. The soybean supply and demand situation was different, and the rapeseed meal inventory was expected to decrease seasonally. It is recommended to hold short - call covered positions [66][67]. - **Oils**: The market was in a state of shock. The far - month palm oil was promising, and the supply and demand of different oils were affected by different factors [68]. - **Soybeans**: The price was stable, and the new - season soybean supply was expected to increase. It is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [69]. - **Corn and Starch**: The market was weak, and the new - season corn supply was expected to increase. The price was expected to be weak [70]. - **Cotton**: The price fell, and the market was worried about the US macro - environment. It is necessary to pay attention to the purchase during the National Day [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes dropping after a high opening, and prices will face pressure during the peak listing period [1]. - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as a large amount of new grain enters the market [1]. - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest forecast and awaiting further supply - side guidance [1]. - The price of Dalian corn futures has declined again. Attention should be paid to the cumulative risk of spot prices during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to hold short positions or remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Corn Futures**: From September 26 to September 29, 2025, corn 11 dropped from 2178 to 2159, a decrease of 19 or - 0.87%; corn 01 dropped from 2139 to 2135, a decrease of 4 or - 0.19%; other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, except for corn 09 which remained unchanged [1]. - **Corn Starch Futures**: Corn starch 11 rose from 2480 to 2483, an increase of 3 or 0.12%, while other contracts such as corn starch 01, 03, etc. showed small declines [1]. - **Wheat Average Price**: It rose from 2448 to 2450, an increase of 2 or 0.08% [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the prices in ports like Jinzhou, Shekou, and Harbin remained unchanged, with Jinzhou Port main - contract basis rising by 19 to 141; for corn starch, prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged, and Shandong main - contract basis dropped by 3 to 297 [9]. - **US Corn and Related Products**: CBOT corn main - contract remained at 421.5, COBT soybean main - contract dropped from 1009.25 to 1004.5, a decrease of 4.75 or - 0.47%, CBOT wheat main - contract dropped from 519 to 518.75, a decrease of 0.25 or - 0.05%. The US Gulf完税 price dropped from 2151.47 to 2133.7, a decrease of 17.77 or - 0.83%, with an import profit of 326.3; the US West完税 price dropped from 2008.88 to 1993.92, a decrease of 14.96 or - 0.74%, with an import profit of 466.08 [21]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The State Grain Reserve Corporation has started purchasing new - season corn, alleviating the market's pessimistic sentiment; rainfall in some North China production areas has delayed the harvest, resulting in a tight supply of old - season grain [1]. - **Negative Factors**: Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus is putting pressure on prices; the mid - and downstream acquisition mentality is cautious, waiting for lower prices [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new grain seasonal supply is loose, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. The peak of new grain listing is approaching, and there is a significant risk in spot prices during the National Day holiday [4]. - The short - covering action in the soybean No.1 futures market continues, but the rebound of futures prices slows down [4]. - The auction has restarted with good transaction performance [4]. - The domestic soybean market is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus exerts great pressure on prices. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, there is high spot risk, and it is recommended to hold short positions in futures during the holiday [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No.1 11 - contract in the current month is 3850 - 4000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: - For planting entities with high demand for selling new beans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the soybean No.1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price rebounds to the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. - When new grains are concentratedly listed and sellers' bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at a price range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The success rate of the last two state - reserve auctions was good, mainly due to the lower reserve price. Although it increased the spot supply, the improved transaction indicates market vitality [4]. - The short - side of the 11 - contract continued to significantly reduce positions recently, supporting the futures price to maintain a rebound [4]. - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The prices of most soybean No.1 contracts declined from September 26 to September 29, with the 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts falling by - 0.23%, - 0.20%, - 0.23%, - 0.15%, and - 0.08% respectively, while the 11 - contract rose by 0.08% [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and prices may be more affected by phased restocking demand. High开工 and high production are expected to continue, and long - term supply faces pressure. New alumina projects support demand, but alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices cap the upside of caustic soda prices. Export expectations are cautiously optimistic, and costs are supported. Attention should be paid to phased supply - demand mismatches [1]. - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Third - Quarter Market Review of Caustic Soda - In the third quarter, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with prices mainly in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton, affected by policy expectations and fundamental changes [1]. - From late June to early July, the market rose strongly, supported by stable spot prices and then driven by policy expectations. From late July to early August, the market corrected due to eased policy statements, cooled market sentiment, and weakened spot supply - demand. In mid - August, the market rebounded due to marginal improvement in fundamentals. From late August to mid - September, the market declined again after the end of phased restocking [2]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Caustic Soda - Caustic soda exports: As of now, exports this year are 860,000 tons more than the same period last year. Annual exports are expected to reach about 4.1 million tons, accounting for 10% - 11% of apparent demand. However, August export data was below expectations, and there are rumors of new energy process adjustments affecting demand [16]. - Alumina production and alkali - stocking rhythm: Many alumina capacities are to be put into production from the end of 2025 to early 2026, supporting caustic soda demand. But alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices may limit caustic soda's upside and affect alumina's production progress [17]. - Supply policies and costs: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits are high, so the possibility of active supply - side production cuts is small. However, policy expectations may have an unexpected impact on supply and cost - side raw material pricing [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook of Caustic Soda 4.1 High Profits, Continued Supply Pressure of Caustic Soda - From January to September, caustic soda production totaled 31.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. This year's new caustic soda capacity is estimated to be around 2.4 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.8% - 4.9%. By the end of the year, the capacity base may rise to 51 - 52 million tons. But actual implementation is less optimistic, with few certain new capacities in the fourth quarter [19]. - High profits limit caustic soda price increases, but there have been periods of high profits in history due to short - term supply - demand mismatches [22]. 4.2 Waiting for Alumina Production to Materialize - From the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, there are still many alumina capacities to be put into production, creating caustic soda stocking demand in the fourth quarter. However, alumina's surplus situation and low prices limit caustic soda's upside. Non - aluminum demand is fragmented, and short - term restocking at low prices has some price support but does not change the supply - demand balance [25]. 4.3 Exports are Key - From January to August 2025, caustic soda exports were 2.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16%, due to increased Southeast Asian demand and domestic price advantages. In the short - to - medium term, export expectations remain high, but there are rumors of overseas process adjustments affecting demand. In October, export orders improved, supporting demand [39][40].

Report Overview - **Title**: Nanhua Futures' Outlook for Cotton in the Fourth Quarter [1] - **Author**: Chen Jianing [2] - **Investment Advisory License Number**: Z0020097 [2] - **Investment Advisory Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - In the third quarter, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) showed a volatile pattern. Domestic cotton consumption was better than expected, with strong domestic demand and "rush - export" orders for external demand. Xinjiang cotton destocking accelerated, supporting cotton prices. However, the expected high - yield of new cotton and poor downstream profits limited price increases. US cotton was in a tug - of - war between slow export sign - ups and a decline in production expectations, with high unpriced contracts, maintaining a narrow - range consolidation. [2] - In the fourth quarter, the listing of new domestic cotton will ease the supply shortage. Ginners may be cautious in purchasing, and the high - yield pattern of Xinjiang cotton will bring significant hedging pressure. Domestic demand may maintain moderate growth, but external sales may not sustain previous strong performance after the "rush - export" orders. Cotton prices lack upward drivers. [2] - The predicted price range for Zhengmian is 13,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to short on price rebounds and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In the third quarter, Zhengmian fluctuated in the range of 13,500 - 14,400 yuan/ton. After being impacted by tariff policies in the first half of the year, it gradually recovered as tariff policy implementation was postponed. With better - than - expected consumption and reduced imports, Xinjiang cotton destocking accelerated, and inventory was low at the end of the year. However, the expected high - yield of new cotton and poor spinning profits limited price increases. [2] - **US Cotton**: US cotton fluctuated in the range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Slow export progress at the beginning of the year was followed by price declines due to tariff policies. After reaching the export sign - up target, prices recovered. High unpriced contracts in the third quarter suppressed prices, and it oscillated narrowly between slow export sign - ups and expected production decline. [7] 3.2. Core Concerns 3.2.1. Import Quotas and Cotton Destocking - From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 590,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons, and cumulative棉纱 imports were 910,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons. Monthly cotton imports in the third quarter were at a near - decade low. [9] - On August 25, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 200,000 - ton cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota, which had limited impact on market sentiment. With favorable import profits, cotton imports may slightly increase in the fourth quarter, and the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton may narrow slightly. [9] - Due to reduced imports and increased downstream demand in Xinjiang, domestic cotton destocking accelerated. As of the end of August, China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory was only 2.374 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 622,000 tons. After the listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter, the inventory shortage can be alleviated, but imports may remain low, and domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight at the end of the year. [14] 3.2.2. New - Season High - Yield and Hedging Pressure - In the new season, with the support of the cotton target price subsidy policy, farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting remained high, and the planting area in Xinjiang increased. The expected cotton output in Xinjiang for the 25/26 season is 7.108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. [16] - The concentrated listing of new cotton is postponed to the National Day holiday. Currently, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is stable with a slight decline. Ginners may be cautious in purchasing, and cotton prices may face significant hedging pressure in the fourth quarter. [17] 3.2.3. Domestic and Foreign Sales - **Domestic Sales**: From January to August 2025, China's retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles reached 940.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.91%. Downstream demand is in the peak season, but with expanded spinning capacity, orders decreased, and spinning profits were limited. Domestic textile and apparel sales may maintain moderate growth in the fourth quarter. [19] - **Foreign Sales**: From January to August 2025, China's total textile and clothing exports were 197.275 billion US dollars, basically the same as the previous year. Cotton product exports showed a "quantity - for - price" trend, and export profits were squeezed under US tariff pressure. Although exports to emerging markets increased, the bright performance of the export market may not be sustainable in the short term without improved US - China tariff policies. [21] 3.2.4. US New - Season Production and Export - In the 25/26 season, due to a low cotton - grain price ratio, US cotton planting area decreased. The USDA expects the new - season planting area to be 56.427 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. Although the weather in cotton - growing areas improved, the expected output is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 259,000 tons. [25] - As of September 11, US cotton export sign - ups were slow. However, tariff negotiation policies may help stabilize US agricultural product exports, and the subsequent adjustment of US foreign tariff policies needs attention. [30] 3.2.5. Global Production and Consumption - According to the USDA's September report, the expected global cotton output in the 25/26 season is 25.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 335,000 tons. China and Brazil are expected to increase production, while the US, Australia, and Turkey will see output declines. [34] - Global cotton consumption is expected to reach 25.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. China's consumption is expected to decline slightly, and Southeast Asian countries' consumption will be basically the same as the previous year. [35] 3.3. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - In the fourth quarter, with the listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of high - yield in China will become apparent. Ginners may be cautious in purchasing, and cotton prices may face hedging pressure and have a phased decline. [37] - In the long - term, if China's high - yield situation continues and the US - China situation remains unchanged, the quota for cotton imports may remain low. With the support of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates, domestic cotton destocking may be fast, and Zhengmian may rebound after reaching the bottom. [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]