Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloy prices maintained a slow upward trend. After the Friday close, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, strengthening market expectations for supply - side reform. Recently, the overall price center of the black sector has shifted upward, and coal prices have gradually strengthened, supporting the rise of ferroalloy prices. In the short term, ferroalloy prices are optimistic. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloy is relatively small, with silicon - manganese in a destocking trend and silicon - iron having high inventory but supported by coal prices. The current price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment, and the fundamental resonance is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon - iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) Silicon - iron - The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is - 171 yuan/ton (+90.5), and in Ningxia production area is - 44 yuan/ton (+54) - This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory is 6.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.54% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [7] Silicon - manganese - The government's control policy on high - energy - consuming industries remains strict, and the silicon - manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulation - The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32) - Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory is 21.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; silicon - manganese warehouse receipts are 39.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%; total silicon - manganese inventory is 61.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [8] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) Silicon - iron - Silicon - iron warehouse - receipt inventory is 10.98 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; total silicon - iron inventory is 17.33 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% - This week, the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel products is 2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% - The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output is 10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [9] Silicon - manganese - In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand - The demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products is 12.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [9] Daily Data Silicon - iron - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 68 (a day - on - day increase of 292, a week - on - week decrease of 74), and other basis and price data are also provided - The price of blue charcoal small materials remains unchanged at 540, Qinhuangdao thermal coal is 649 (a day - on - day increase of 2, a week - on - week increase of 12), and Yulin thermal coal remains unchanged at 510 - Silicon - iron warehouse receipts are 22124 (a day - on - day decrease of 26, a week - on - week increase of 174) [9] Silicon - manganese - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 162 (a day - on - day increase of 124, a week - on - week decrease of 38), and other basis, price and warehouse - receipt data are also provided [10][11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese include market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory, covering multiple years and different contracts [12][13][15][16][19][20][22][23][25][26][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [N/A] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock indices closed higher today. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, after yesterday's adjustment, were relatively strong and hit new highs for the year. The trading volume in the two markets decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level for the year. Affected by the news that Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year, related concept sectors such as free trade zones and duty - free shops led the gains. In terms of futures basis, the basis of each variety contract increased today, and the open interest also increased, indicating that bulls entered the market. With the current news being relatively calm and the market sentiment remaining optimistic, it is expected that the stock indices will continue to operate strongly [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock indices closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1.9894 billion yuan. The stock index futures all rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - Approved by the Party Central Committee, Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year. A series of policy measures will be implemented on the day of the full - island customs closure. Among them, the proportion of the tax items of "zero - tariff" goods imported from the "first line" will be increased from 21% to 74%. These goods can circulate within the island among beneficiaries without import tax, and those with a processing value - added of 30% can be sold to the Chinese mainland duty - free [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.76 | 0.50 | 1.72 | 1.84 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.4133 | 5.3842 | 9.5468 | 20.5106 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.6976 | - 1.3034 | - 0.9753 | - 0.6634 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.1368 | 10.0891 | 22.9789 | 33.8313 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.2311 | 0.0135 | 0.1553 | 0.0035 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.21 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.80 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 18447.06 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | - 198.94 | [8]

Report Summary - The report focuses on the dry bulk shipping market on July 24, 2025, analyzing spot index, dry bulk shipping volume, port ship quantity, and the relationship between freight and commodity prices [1]. 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - The increase of the BDI composite freight index narrowed, with the BPI and BSI freight indices falling, while the BCI freight index increase expanded. On July 23, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2120 points, up 11.23% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3339 points, up 26.38% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1905 points, down 3.15% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1313 points, down 0.15% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 682 points, up 2.71% week - on - week [1][3]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On July 23, the FDI index rose across the board, but most routes in the Panamax ship rental market of the FDI rental index saw freight declines. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1307.33 points, up 1.96% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1589.97 points, up 2.11% month - on - month. Among them, the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1555.41 points, up 5.74% month - on - month; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1712.7 points, down 0.28% month - on - month; the Handymax ship rental index closed at 1513.32 points, up 0.11% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1118.9 points, up 1.81% month - on - month [7]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking 2.1 Shipping Country Shipping Vessel Quantity - On July 24, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 32 shipping vessels, Russia 7, Argentina 26, and Australia 6. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 50, Guinea 27, Indonesia 32, Russia 24, South Africa 21, Brazil 10, and the US 17 [15][16]. 2.2 Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In agricultural product shipping, corn used 19 vessels, wheat 23, soybeans 19, soybean meal 12, and sugar 4. In industrial product shipping, coal used 103 vessels, iron ore 67, and other dry goods 19. Agricultural product shipping required the most Post - Panamax vessels (38), followed by Supramax vessels (16) and Handysize vessels (20). Industrial product shipping required the most Capesize vessels (80), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (56) and Supramax vessels (55) [17]. 3. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - In the current week, the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports increased month - on - month. From July 1 to July 23, the number of dry bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 27, in Australian ports decreased by 15, in Indonesian ports increased by 2, and in Brazilian ports decreased by 5 [18]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 23, Brazilian soybeans were at $40/ton, and on July 24, the near - term shipping quote was 3938.83 yuan/ton. On July 22, the BCI C10_14 route freight was $22623/day, and on July 23, the iron ore CIF price was $118/kiloton. On July 22, the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14362/day, and on July 23, the steam coal CIF price was 529.81 yuan/ton. On July 23, the Handysize ship freight index was 675.6 points, and on July 25, the 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $114/cubic meter [22].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tin price increase on Monday was due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamental situation of tin itself remained unchanged. In the short term, considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese tin ore and the lack of signs of improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [3] Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,540 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract (75% hedging ratio, around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract (50% hedging ratio, around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, Burmese复产 falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [7] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, the start of Burmese tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][7] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 268,540 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars or 2.45% [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 268,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.01%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.11% [11] Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 16,361.68 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 569.93 yuan or - 3.37%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,807 tons, up 16 tons or 0.24%. The LME tin total inventory is 1,715 tons, down 170 tons or - 9.02% [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trend affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. The rise in non - ferrous metals is likely due to demand - side factors rather than issues with the US dollar index, gold, or supply. The development of high - quality projects and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may have a significant impact on copper and zinc. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as the price increase has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper. The利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the reduction of LME inventory levels, the low - level hovering of the US dollar index, and the positive impact of anti - involution on the non - ferrous metal sector. The利空 factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, the potential reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,590 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,590 yuan/ton with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (- 0.19%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 79,560 yuan/ton with no change; the LME 3M copper is 9,933.5 US dollars/ton, up 35.5 US dollars (0.36%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,790 yuan/ton, 79,875 yuan/ton, 79,630 yuan/ton, and 79,940 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 35 yuan (0.04%), 170 yuan (0.21%), 120 yuan (0.15%), and 110 yuan (0.14%) [10]. Copper Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 15,535 tons, down 9,972 tons (- 39.1%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons with no change [15]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 124,825 tons, down 25 tons (- 0.02%); European inventory is 28,775 tons, down 475 tons (- 1.62%); Asian inventory is 13,150 tons, down 82,925 tons (- 86.31%); North American inventory is 0 tons [17]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 245,508 tons, up 6,073 tons (2.54%) [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 247.47 yuan/ton, down 285.72 yuan (- 746.98%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.9 US dollars/ton, up 0.27 US dollars (- 0.63%) [21].

本周数据总体清淡，适当关注周四晚间美国7月标普制造业与服务业PMI初值以及周度初请失业金人数。事 南华贵金属日报: 贸易关税担忧趋缓削弱避险情绪 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月24日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场有所调整，美指虽延续偏弱，但10Y美债收益率走高利空贵金属估值。周边美股再刷新 高，比特币和原油震荡，南华有色金属指数调整。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3397.5美元/盎 司，-1.34%；美白银2509合约收报于39.52美元/盎司，-0.09%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约792.9元/克， +0.9%；SHFE白银2510合约收9492元/千克，+1.16%。随着8月1日关税落地期限临近，美国关税贸易战趋 缓提升市场风险偏好并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税 税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、美将对欧盟征15%关税，虽此后白宫回 应是臆测，但仍引发一定贵金属多头获利了结。美联储方面，政府对美联储干预仍在持续进行，这将促使美 联储独立性原则 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report predicts that the nickel and stainless - steel market will continue to fluctuate. The short - term price increase drive of the nickel ore is limited due to the rising inventory from the Philippines. The stainless - steel market is also in a volatile state, with weak demand suppressing the upside. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Management Strategy**: For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value decline, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), and buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan. For procurement management, when worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel returns to a fluctuating state, and the macro - level sentiment fades. The inventory of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The short - term price increase drive of the ore end is limited. The transaction price of nickel iron has回调 again, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August has moved up. The stainless - steel market also returns to a fluctuating state, with large factories still having the sentiment of reducing production, and weak demand suppressing the upside in the short term. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. 3.利多 and 利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the follow - up trend of the nickel industry chain; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the inventory reduction is slow [4]. 4. Market Data - **Nickel Market**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, weakening the bottom support. The price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,370 yuan/ton, and the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,530 US dollars/ton. The trading volume is 133,758 lots, and the open interest is 95,734 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 21,971 tons, with a decrease of 122 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,900 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 226,003 lots, and the open interest is 122,384 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 103,415 tons, with a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons compared with the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 205,872 tons, a decrease of 2,220 tons compared with the previous period; the stainless - steel social inventory is 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared with the previous period; the nickel pig iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons compared with the previous period [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the destocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The overall support from the downstream demand side is expected to strengthen, but the demand may be suppressed if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress. The inventory is expected to further decline with the improvement of demand. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation in the second half of the year. The strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions in industrial silicon on dips [4]. - The positive factors include the positive signal from the "anti - involution" policy, limited further downward space for costs in the short term, and better - than - expected demand. The negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and the potential weakening of demand due to the integration of downstream polysilicon enterprises [7][8]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expectation of lower electricity prices and increased profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory pressure persists. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may reverse the current situation. The strategy is to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 and PS2512. - The positive factors are the potential industry - wide capacity integration and the external demand stimulus from the US "big and beautiful" bill. The negative factor is the potential inventory accumulation if the integration plan fails to materialize [10]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9525 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.35% and a weekly increase of 9.67%. The trading volume is 1681997 lots, with a daily increase of 36.26% and a weekly increase of 51.32%. The open interest is 334776 lots, with a daily decrease of 12.12% and a weekly decrease of 11.87% [13]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.34% and a weekly increase of 128.57%. The SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 17.19% and a weekly increase of - 18.46% [15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased, with daily increases ranging from 3.02% to 4.42%. The basis of East China 553 and 421 has increased significantly, with the daily increase of the basis of East China 553 reaching 955.56% and that of East China 421 reaching 145.76%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 remains unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50106 lots, with a decrease of 5.19%. The inventory in some delivery warehouses has changed, such as a decrease of 13.73% in the Tianjin delivery warehouse and an increase of 1.45% in the Sichuan delivery warehouse [24][25]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 50080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.99% and a weekly increase of 16.61%. The trading volume is 1246241 lots, with a daily increase of 64.52% and a weekly increase of 177.03%. The open interest is 165641 lots, with a daily decrease of 13.81% and a weekly increase of 130.75% [28]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 55.77% and a weekly decrease of 51.06%. The PS08 - 11 spread is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 39.31% and a weekly decrease of 61.74%. The PS09 - 11 spread is 325 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30.11% and a weekly decrease of 64.48%. The PS11 - 12 spread is - 1950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 12.95% and a weekly increase of - 8.02% [30]. Spot Data - The prices of most polysilicon products remain stable, with only the N - type polysilicon price index increasing by 1.15% and the particle silicon increasing by 2.33%. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells remain unchanged [35][37]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 6030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.55% and a weekly decrease of 1294.06%. The warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View The stock index reached a new high during intraday trading today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The overall upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The afternoon pullback is a way to prevent overheating of market sentiment. After consecutive sharp rises, the index may experience a short - term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with large - cap indices rising and small and medium - cap indices falling. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 284.39 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with shrinking volume, while the rest rose with increasing volume [4]. Important Information - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than at the end of last year, with an increase of 416.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [5]. - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" has softened, and he and Bessent are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.06 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.1109 | 6.6876 | 10.5221 | 21.174 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 1.3706 | 0.7078 | 1.2645 | 1.9443 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.9057 | 10.0756 | 22.8236 | 33.8278 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.151 | - 0.1022 | 0.291 | 0.9947 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.32 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18646.00 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 284.39 | [8]