1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the mismatch between short - term geopolitical (Russia - Ukraine conflict, Yemen situation) driven bullish momentum and insufficient medium - to - long - term fundamental support (no supply - demand gap, weak physical goods). Geopolitics is the current focus, but fundamentals restrict price increases [2]. - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether geopolitical risks can continue" and "how the market digests overbought conditions". In the medium - to - long term, the core game lies in "the extent of demand decline" and "the intensity of supply adjustment" [2]. - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and a medium - term weak oscillation [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term core contradiction focuses on the continuation of geopolitical risks and the digestion of overbought conditions. The key variables are the spread of the Yemen situation to the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The medium - to - long - term core contradiction returns to fundamentals. On the demand side, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the US suppresses oil consumption, and although Asian demand provides some support, it cannot offset global weakness. On the supply side, there is no supply gap as OPEC+ may adjust supply and US shale oil production is stable [2][4]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in a short - term rebound and medium - term weak oscillation. Suggested strategies include: in the month - spread strategy, go long on Brent2512 - 2602 and WTI2512 - 2602; in the domestic - foreign arbitrage strategy, go short on SC - Brent; in the crack spread, continue to hold short positions in RBOB gasoline - WTI and long positions in ICE diesel - Brent [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely to be bullish**: Geopolitical risks have increased, injecting a premium; EIA inventory has a low increase, strengthening supply - demand support; sanctions and conflicts have intensified supply concerns [7]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The Middle - East physical market has weakened; global demand expectations have been continuously revised down; there is still room for supply - side flexibility [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Track the dynamics of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the escalation of US - Houthi armed conflicts, the impact of Israeli military air - strikes on Sanaa, and the safety of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. Also, be vigilant about the progress of the US - Iran talks. - Monitor the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the energy dimension, including the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the implementation of Russia's refined - oil export ban [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Fund Analysis - **Trend analysis**: This week, crude oil showed a geopolitically - driven oscillating upward trend, with Brent crude breaking through the September high. The trend is centered around the game between geopolitics and fundamentals [12]. - **Domestic market**: The short - term trend is oscillating upward. Technical indicators show short - term bullish momentum, but there is a risk of technical correction. The WTI and Brent crude in the international market also show upward trends, but attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [14][15]. - **Fund and position analysis**: Information on domestic and international crude oil futures positions and changes is provided [15][16]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - spread Tracking - Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight Backwardation structure, indicating short - term supply tightness or stable demand. Dubai and domestic SC crude oil month - spreads are weak, reflecting the relatively weak domestic market [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has rapidly narrowed, reflecting the decline of international oil prices and the relatively loose domestic supply - demand situation [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - The crude oil crack spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads may remain high in the short term, while gasoline spreads are difficult to improve. This differentiation is due to energy transformation and geopolitical games [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side Tracking - Information on US and Chinese refinery crude input, operating rates, and US crude oil production and rig numbers is provided [57][60]. 5.2 Demand - side Tracking - Data on US and Chinese refinery operating rates are presented [57]. 5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - As of September 19, data on US commercial crude oil, strategic petroleum, and Cushing region inventories are given [62]. 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA9 monthly report shows that global oil demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025, supply is rising, refinery throughput has fluctuations, and inventory has different trends. The market is affected by geopolitical concerns and the prospect of supply surplus [64][65][66].

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/29 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石11合约月度价格预测（10月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 780-850 | 21.01% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（10月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2511 | 空 | 25% | 840-850 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2511-C-850 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2511 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market rose overall today, with the CSI 300 Index hitting a new high, indicating positive market sentiment. The upward movement was mainly driven by the non - banking financial and non - ferrous metal sectors. The non - banking financial sector was influenced by the central bank's meeting, and the market is optimistic about brokerage performance in Q4. The non - ferrous metal sector was pulled up by the strong gold market and the rise of the solid - state battery concept. However, due to uncertainties during the double - festival period, there may be a post - holiday correction, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed a strong trend today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 1.54%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 14.576 billion yuan, and all futures index varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan for project capital replenishment. It also supports private enterprises' participation in the "AI +" action. In August, the economy was generally stable, but there are still risks and challenges, and the NDRC will continue to implement macro - policies [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a satellite mobile communication business license to China Mobile [3]. Strategy Recommendation - A light - position purchase of the straddle option strategy is recommended [4]. Market Data - **Futures Index Market Analysis** - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 1.53%, 0.89%, 1.90%, and 2.00% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.66084 million lots, 0.85621 million lots, 1.60425 million lots, and 2.84619 million lots respectively, with corresponding volume increases of 0.44999 million lots, 0.37395 million lots, 0.2439 million lots, and 0.41629 million lots. The open interests were 2.84149 million lots, 1.13877 million lots, 2.56603 million lots, and 3.67256 million lots respectively, with increases of 0.24225 million lots, 0.17889 million lots, 0.04379 million lots, and 0.02392 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market Analysis** - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 2.19. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.161461 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.576 billion yuan [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is expected to show a "U" - shaped movement. The European - line freight rate and futures price are predicted to remain in a weak and volatile state in the medium term until November, and then start to rebound. The short - term fluctuation range is expected to be between 900 and 1200 points [6][7]. - For trading strategies, the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - The current supply - demand situation shows that the demand is weak overall, especially in the European line, and the supply growth rate has decreased as expected, but the stock still has pressure, resulting in a continued oversupply situation [6][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - **Trend Forecast**: The demand is relatively weak this year. The off - season is expected to last until November, and then pick up. The supply still has an oversupply situation due to insufficient idle capacity. The European - line freight rate and futures price are expected to be weak in the medium term and rebound in November. However, variables such as shipping company actions and macro - level impacts need to be noted [6]. - **Interval Outlook**: The short - term fluctuation range of the long - term European - line freight rate is [900, 1200] points [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - **Risk Points**: Red Sea resumption of navigation, unexpected development of tariffs, etc. [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Container Shipping Freight Rate Review**: In the third quarter, the European - line settlement freight rate first rose seasonally in early July and then declined. The decline was mainly due to the "off - peak in peak season" of booking demand. The European - line spot freight rate index also showed a downward trend. The US - West line freight rate fluctuated widely due to factors such as tariffs and port fees. Overall, the third quarter showed an "off - peak in peak season" situation [12][13]. - **Container Shipping Futures Price Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures price first rose with seasonal demand recovery and then declined due to oversupply. After reaching the lowest point in September, it rebounded slightly with shipping company price support. The volatility in the third quarter was relatively narrow [18]. - **Demand "Off - peak in Peak Season"**: The global container shipping market demand maintained a certain seasonality in the third quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate was relatively low. The European - line demand was relatively poor, as reflected by the low congestion index of European ports. The euro - zone economy was in a weak recovery state, unable to provide strong support for the futures price [23][25][28]. - **Supply Growth Rate Declined, Stock Still under Pressure**: - **High Effective Capacity**: The global container ship capacity growth rate has gradually slowed down but remains relatively high, higher than the average. This is one of the reasons for the high overall supply stock [30]. - **Slowdown in New Ship Orders and Deliveries**: In July and August, the new order volume and shipbuilding completion volume of container ships decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the market capacity is relatively saturated and the demand is not strong [40]. - **Stable Red Sea Diversion Structure**: The Red Sea diversion continues, and the transit volume of the Suez Canal is still low. However, the current diversion pattern is relatively stable, and its supporting effect on the freight rate of the Asia - Europe route is relatively weak [42]. 3.3 Core Concerns - **Tariff Changes**: In the third quarter, tariff changes were relatively small compared to the second quarter. However, recent US tariff announcements on EU and other products will have a negative impact on the international trade environment and the container shipping market in the medium and long term. The follow - up results of China - US tariff negotiations also need to be continuously monitored [46][47]. - **Shipping Company Measures**: Shipping companies have been issuing price - increase letters, but the actual implementation effect has been poor except in June. However, their price - increasing actions can have a short - term positive impact on the futures market sentiment. Whether shipping companies can maintain the current price quotes will affect the valuation of the futures price [50]. - **Fundamentals**: In the fourth quarter, the demand is expected to remain weak until November and then pick up, but overall it may still be relatively weak. The supply growth rate is expected to continue to decline but remain at a high level, and the oversupply situation will continue [53]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently, the valuation is weak but has the potential to increase. The shipping companies' price - supporting actions in mid - October have led to a recovery in the futures price valuation. The current basis has converged to a reasonable range [54][55]. - **Demand Side**: - **Trade - Related Macroeconomic Indicators**: The OECD composite leading indicator shows that China's overall export demand in the fourth quarter may be relatively stable but slightly weak [56]. - **Trade Recovery**: Based on past experience, China's export trade data usually increases from mid - November, but there is a possibility of blurred seasonality this year [58]. - **Authoritative Institution Forecasts**: Clarksons has raised the trade volume forecast for the Asia - Europe route in the next two years, but the increase is relatively small [60]. - **Supply Outlook**: The total container ship capacity in 2025 is expected to increase by 6.6% year - on - year, and the capacity of 17000 + container ships is expected to increase by 6.1% year - on - year. The oversupply situation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter [60][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current economic cycle is showing marginal improvement, but there is still economic pressure in the future, and policy support is necessary. The Fed's future policy path will depend on employment market robustness and inflation decline rhythm. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has decreased marginally [2]. - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday. Treasury bond investors can close long positions before the holiday [7][8]. - The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [15]. - The price of copper has risen due to the suspension of the Grasberg copper mine, and it is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly; zinc is expected to operate weakly; nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate; tin is expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day; lead is expected to oscillate at a high level [21][25][28][29]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the iron ore price may decline in the short term; coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure [30][31][35][38]. - The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. PX - TA has rebounded at a low price, and it is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts; MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350, and it is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day; PP may have a rebound drive, and PE is expected to oscillate weakly; PVC is recommended to wait and see; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them; fuel oil is recommended to wait and see; low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive; asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes; rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday; urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [42][46][48][52][54][57][58][60][61][63][67][69]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: The supply - and - demand - side policies are being gradually advanced. The demand - side focuses on "benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption", and there may be incremental policies in the future. The "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side is being refined and implemented. The Fed may restart the rate - cut cycle in September, but the uncertainty of the rate - cut path has increased [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB against the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday due to the approaching holiday and the increase in risk - aversion sentiment [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The Treasury bond market is currently weak. It is recommended to close long positions before the holiday [8]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market has continued to rise strongly, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [13][15]. - **Copper**: The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine has pushed up the copper price. It is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - **Aluminum & Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to operate weakly due to the increased uncertainty of rate cuts and the suppression of the US dollar index [22]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate. The nickel market is affected by factors such as mine - end sentiment and new - energy support, and the stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as inventory and profit [24]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to oscillate, and the macro impact on tin prices has decreased, with the supply being tight in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day. The downstream lithium - battery material demand is expected to increase, which may support the lithium - carbonate futures price [28]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply side may recover, and the demand side is generally stable, but the long - term demand is average [29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - and - demand are both increasing, but the inventory reduction is less than in previous years. High - supply pressure remains, and the cost support is weakening [30]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro利好 has been exhausted, and the iron ore price may decline, but the downward space may be limited [31][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and coke follows coking coal. The "anti - involution" is the trading main line in the second half of the year [35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure. The cost support and term structure have improved, but the supply is high and the demand is weak [38]. 3.2.3 Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - holiday trend [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - TA has rebounded at a low price. It is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts or widen the TA - SC price difference. The polyester peak season has limited height [46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350. The demand has improved marginally, but the long - term accumulation expectation is difficult to change [48]. - **Methanol**: It is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day. The coal price has weakened slightly, and the port inventory is difficult to solve [49]. - **PP**: PP may have a rebound drive due to the reduction of marginal supply. It is not advisable to chase short positions at present [52]. - **PE**: PE is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering slowly, with inventory pressure [54]. - **PVC**: PVC is recommended to wait and see. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong policy disturbance [57]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the upward space of styrene is limited [58]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to wait and see. The export has decreased, and the cracking upward drive is limited [60]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak [61]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes. The supply is increasing, and the demand has not been effectively released, but the inventory structure has improved [63]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has high - level resilience but also faces challenges [67]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850. The domestic supply - and - demand pattern is weak, but the second - batch export may support the demand [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the planned return of long - idle small plants, and increased imports from Europe. However, downstream demand is unable to absorb the high supply, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory accumulation pattern. [1][9][20] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended, and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September and is expected to increase in mid - to - late October. From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward space. [1] - Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" concept, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline need attention. When there is no obvious fundamental driver, macro sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Pure benzene supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while downstream demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Styrene supply is currently tightening but will increase later, and its upward space is limited by high inventory and pure benzene. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market trend is expected to be range - bound. The BZ2603 is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6200, and EB2511 between 6800 - 7200. The strategy is to widen the spread between pure benzene and styrene when the EB2511 - BZ2603 spread is around 1000. [13] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5600 - 6200, and styrene 6800 - 7400. For styrene, inventory management strategies include short - selling futures and selling call options, while procurement management strategies include buying futures and selling put options. [14] 1.4 Industrial Chain Weekly Data Overview - In terms of price and profit, the prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain have changed to different extents, and the profits of some products have decreased. In terms of supply and demand, the production of some products has increased, while the demand of some downstream products has decreased. [15][16][17] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The government issued a plan to promote the stable growth of the petrochemical industry. Pure benzene port inventory decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. Multiple styrene plants reduced their loads or extended maintenance, further tightening the near - term supply. [19] - **Negative Information**: Pure benzene imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The maintenance of some pure benzene plants has been postponed, and two long - idle plants are planned to resume production. Two large - scale styrene plants are planned to be put into production in October. [20] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key economic data such as China's official manufacturing PMI, US ADP employment, ISM manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls need attention. [21] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The unilateral price of styrene rebounded after a decline this week, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil. There was no significant change in the long and short positions in the top five seats of the dragon - tiger list, and the net short position of the main profitable seats increased slightly. [23] - The monthly C - structure of the styrene market flattened. The market interprets the increase in near - term styrene maintenance losses as a negative factor for pure benzene. The spread between pure benzene and styrene has widened, and the strategy is to widen the spread at low levels. [27][30] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyzes the profits of various links in the industrial chain, including naphtha cracking and reforming, aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, pure benzene, and its downstream products, as well as styrene and its downstream products. [32][40][48][53] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzes the seasonal patterns of import profits and monthly import volumes of pure benzene and styrene. [58][59] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Side and Projection - **Pure Benzene Supply**: This week, the production of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene increased. The maintenance of some plants has been postponed, and imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter, so the supply is expected to increase. [60] - **Styrene Supply**: This week, styrene production decreased. Short - term maintenance plans are numerous, and supply will tighten, but it will increase again after new plants are put into production and maintenance plants resume in mid - to - late October. [65] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projection - **Pure Benzene Demand**: The demand for pure benzene from its five major downstream products has increased due to the resumption of some maintenance plants. [71] - **Styrene Demand**: The operating rates of EPS and PS among the downstream 3S products have declined, and the demand for styrene has decreased. The future production schedules of household air conditioners and refrigerators have been revised upwards but are still significantly lower than last year, providing little support for styrene demand. [105][106] 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Analyzes the new plant production capacity and supply - demand balance of pure benzene and styrene in 2025, showing that there may be a supply surplus of pure benzene in the fourth quarter and a supply - demand imbalance in styrene. [121][122]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution theme in the commodity market has entered a cooling stage, and the overall market is in a weak and volatile atmosphere. Trend strategies have low win - rates and odds, and it is difficult to operate [2][3][5]. - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, funds are flowing out. Investors should control their positions or stay in cash to avoid holiday risks [3][5]. - In terms of specific sectors, agricultural products are weak, while precious metals are strong [3]. - The market is currently affected by sudden news, with unclear main contradictions and insufficiently low valuations. It is advisable to wait patiently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Various sudden news, such as Argentina's suspension of agricultural product tariffs, Indonesia's copper mine suspension, and Russia's refinery attacks, have caused short - term shocks to the market, increasing trading difficulty and hampering strategy execution [4]. - The anti - involution theme market is in a cooling cycle, and the market is now trading the real - end logic of surplus varieties. The supply - demand patterns of soda ash, PVC and other varieties remain loose, and downstream demand is weak [4]. Product Strategy Recommendations - Abandon market prediction. Stable account profitability depends on strategy, risk control, and execution [5]. - The net value performance of the Chase the Wind 1 and Chase the Wind 2 strategy products is good. Chase the Wind 2 is in a free trial period and is worth trying for non - subscribed customers [5]. Data Tables - **Plate Fund Flow**: The total capital flow is 322 million yuan. Precious metals have an inflow of 3.022 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 1.405 billion yuan, while black metals have an outflow of 2.959 billion yuan, energy 165 million yuan, chemicals 846 million yuan, feed and breeding 555 million yuan, oils and fats 1.597 billion yuan, and soft commodities have an inflow of 73 million yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, etc. are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, gold, etc. [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar data is presented for energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: Data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are given [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The coal end has weakened slightly, with weekend pithead coal prices falling. Iranian shipments remain fast, with around 870,000 tons shipped so far. Port inventory accumulation has been limited this week due to weather - delayed unloading, but significant accumulation is expected later. For the 01 contract, supply is clear. Although downstream profits have improved, the port inventory issue is difficult to resolve. The reverse flow window between the port and the inland remains open, and inland MTO continues to purchase externally, providing support. Non - Iranian Malaysian plants have faced setbacks in resuming operations and are further delayed, with non - Iranian imports expected to be slightly reduced to 550,000 - 600,000 tons this month, but a clear reduction time is hard to determine. It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the short - put option can be held [2]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to operate in the range of 2330 - 2380. The previous short - put option on the 2601 contract should continue to be held [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coal prices at the pithead have declined, and Iranian methanol shipments are rapid. Port inventory will likely increase significantly later. The 01 contract has supply clarity, but port inventory is a problem. Inland support exists due to external purchases by MTO. Non - Iranian imports may be slightly reduced [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - Spread Strategy**: The price of the methanol 01 contract has risen to 2370, while the inland market has weakened. The large premium structure of the 01 contract remains unresolved, and the outcome is yet to be determined [10]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: As Iranian shipments have accelerated, the market doubts whether early gas restrictions will occur this year. Methanol prices have been declining, and the 1 - 5 spread has been in a reverse - carry situation [7][10]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of methanol inland inventory, including in the Northwest, at methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the national factory inventory, net factory inventory, and northwest pending shipments [18][20]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various charts display the seasonal trends of methanol port inventory in different regions of China, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Guangxi, as well as the inventory in Taicang and the port arrival volume in different areas [22][38][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Forecast**: The price range of methanol is predicted to be 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [51]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, buying put options, and selling call options [51]. - **Positive Information**: Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to prevent over - capacity risks in the coal - to - methanol industry. The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong had its mid - construction handover this week, with the earliest投料 in late November. Iranian plant operating rates have declined to around 74% [55][56]. - **Negative Information**: Iran has shipped 700,000 tons of methanol [57]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Not provided in the document Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic methanol market has been oscillating this week, with the inland production area slightly stronger than the sales area. The port market followed the futures, showing a weak oscillation and then a small rebound. The 1 - 5 spread weakened due to high - speed Iranian shipments but rebounded on Friday due to an unexpected Iranian plant shutdown [59][62]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the mainstream prices of methanol in the Lunan market and Taicang, and the number of warehouse receipts [65][66][69]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts display the profit and cost trends of different methanol production methods, such as coal - to - methanol in Shandong, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and natural - gas - to - methanol in different regions, as well as the profits of downstream products like MTO, acetic acid, and MTBE [77][78][117]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the production and start - up rate trends of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - methanol, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and MTO [93][94][101]. 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - Charts present the seasonal trends of methanol imports from different countries, the outer - market structure of methanol, and the import profit of Iranian methanol [128]. 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production, and start - up rate of overseas methanol plants, including those in Iran and non - Iranian regions [135][137][139]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025 [143]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - This week, some domestic methanol plants have restarted, while others have had maintenance or breakdowns. For example, Shandong Yankuang Guohong has restarted with double furnaces, and some plants in the Southwest and Northwest have restarted or had short - term shutdowns [144]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased production. New MTO projects like the second - phase of Lianhong are advancing, and inland pre - holiday stocking is active [145].