1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels driven by the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak of the polyester peak season is hard to anticipate, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber in polyester have reached high levels, and the room for further increase is limited. The peak of polyester load still depends on the performance of bottle - chip operating rate [1]. - In the short term, the demand for polyester will remain at a high level. The inventory of polyester yarn has been significantly reduced due to the improvement of weaving orders and the superposition of terminal speculative sentiment and pre - holiday rigid - demand stocking. Recently, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized in the short term, with insufficient power for further decline [2]. - In the long term, PX is in a state of supply surplus relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals are weakening marginally. However, PXN has been compressed to a low level, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and macro - sentiment. The macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market trend, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session in October and the 15th Five - Year Plan Outline, which may provide new drivers for PTA prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels, but the polyester peak season is lackluster. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber are high, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. The subsequent terminal demand and sentiment are expected to improve marginally in October, and the impact of macro - expectations may be greater than the suppression of fundamental pessimistic expectations [1]. - PX is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and PTA has many maintenance plans in the fourth quarter. If implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory, and the supply - demand tight pattern has eased compared with previous expectations. PTA processing fees have expanded recently, but the over - supply pattern suppresses the repair strength, and additional maintenance is needed to relieve the structural contradiction [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Oscillating upward. The TA2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4550 - 4800. - Strategy recommendation: Buy TA01 contracts on dips, with the recommended entry range of (4550, 4600). Expand the TA01 processing fees when they are below 280 [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Polyester price range forecast: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4150 - 4450, 6400 - 7100, 4400 - 5000, and 5600 - 6200 respectively [9]. - PTA hedging strategy: Enterprises can short PTA futures to lock in profits according to their inventory, and buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon [14]. - Negative information: A 1.1 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in South China stopped production temporarily due to seawater backflow caused by the typhoon [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Polyester load adjustment and downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day. The subsequent recovery of Ineos' two lines with a total capacity of 2.35 million tons [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PTA disk is oscillating in the range of 4500 - 4700, with overall shrinking trading volume. The futures price has oscillated downward recently, and the basis shows a slight discount [18]. - Capital trend: The net short positions of key seats in PTA and p - xylene first increased and then decreased, indicating that the main funds are cautiously bearish on the PX - TA market outlook. The PX - TA market currently lacks upward drivers and should be treated with a cost - following oscillation mindset [20]. - Monthly spread structure: PTA shows a slight C - structure, indicating that the monthly spread contradiction is not obvious. This week, the PTA monthly spread oscillated, and there was no significant change in the monthly spread [22]. - Basis structure: This week, some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to the typhoon, and the downstream polyester sales improved significantly. The PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, but the overall market expectation is poor, and the subsequent spot contradiction is not obvious. The upward space of the basis is expected to be limited [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking The report shows the seasonal trends of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean FOB xylene prices [46]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - International gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of international gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Singapore, the United States, and Rotterdam [50]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Shandong [52]. - Naphtha reforming: The report shows the seasonal trends of naphtha reforming and cracking profits in Asia [55]. - Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil: The report shows the seasonal trends of toluene and xylene blending for oil and disproportionation spreads in Asia [57]. - PX - TA link: The report shows the seasonal trends of Asian PXN, BZN, and PTA domestic processing fees [64]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain The report shows the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and bottle - chip processing profits, as well as the bottle - chip internal - external price difference [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including PX and PTA production, import, supply, consumption, inventory, and other data [73]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - PX supply: Tianjin Petrochemical restarted this week, and the load increased to 86.7% (+0.4%). PX supply is expected to increase in October. In terms of supply - demand balance, PX is expected to accumulate about 100,000 tons of inventory in October. If the PTA maintenance plans in the fourth quarter are implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory [74]. - PTA supply: Fuhai Chuang restarted 50% of its 4.5 - million - ton capacity recently. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon, and the TA load remained stable at 76.8%. The downstream demand has improved marginally, and the social inventory has increased slightly to 2.14 million tons. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has rebounded from a low level, but further expansion requires additional maintenance or price support [75]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Polyester demand: This week, the polyester load decreased to 90.3% (-1.1%) due to the shutdown of a bottle - chip plant in Zhuhai. The seasonal increase in polyester demand is limited, but weaving orders have improved recently, and the terminal sentiment has improved temporarily. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load is expected to remain high. The processing fees of the polyester segment are under pressure this week, but except for FDY, the pressure is not significant [84]. - Long - filament demand: The inventory of long - filament has been significantly reduced, and the subsequent load maintenance pressure is not large. The processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted dynamically [84]. - Staple - fiber demand: The inventory of staple - fiber has decreased, and the processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted [84]. - Bottle - chip demand: The processing fees of bottle - chip have improved recently, and the inventory is healthy. Attention should be paid to whether there will be plans to increase the load [84].

南华期货聚丙烯产业周报 ——低利润下意外检修增多 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响聚丙烯价格走势的核心矛盾主要在于估值端：1）PDH装置利润显著压缩，当前已基本处于亏损状 态，PDH开工率从月初的73%降至本周的69%；2）PP-丙烯价差大幅收窄，导致华北多家企业，包括裕龙石 化、金诚石化、河北海伟等，均有暂停PP装置，外卖丙烯的情况出现；3）PP粒粉料价差自9月中旬开始一直 处于倒挂状态，生产粒料的经济性下降，中景石化目前暂停两条PP粒料产线，粉料生产比例相对提升。 近期在PP价格重心不断下移的情况下，生产利润严重压缩，导致意外检修情况增多。PP供给端的边际减量或 将对其价格形成一定支撑。 PP拉丝-丙烯季节性 source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 1000 1500 山东PP粒粉价差 so ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current supply and demand pattern of PE is weak. Supply is expected to increase due to the restart of multiple devices and potential import growth, while demand recovery is slow, resulting in limited support for PE prices. The overall trend is expected to be weak, with limited upside potential [1]. - In the short term, PE will mainly fluctuate with macro - sentiment and cost, but its weak fundamentals will restrict its upward movement. A put - option strategy is recommended as the current valuation is low, and further short - selling is not cost - effective [6]. - In the long term, the supply of PE is expected to further increase in the fourth quarter due to new device投产 plans, and without new demand - boosting policies, the weak supply - demand situation is likely to continue [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Multiple devices are set to restart at the end of September, and the planned device maintenance in October is expected to decline rapidly, leading to increased supply. Additionally, due to the weak overseas PE market, the number of offers from North America and the Middle East has increased, and imports are expected to rise in October - November [1]. - Demand side: Although PE is entering the peak season, demand recovery is slow, downstream orders are limited, and enterprises are reluctant to replenish inventory. PE inventory, especially LLDPE inventory, is at a high level, and there is pressure on mid - and upstream sales. As a result, the PE basis remains at a discount [1]. 1.2 Transaction - type Strategy Recommendations - L - P spread narrowing strategy is under observation, proposed on September 19 [12]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction for polyethylene: 7100 - 7350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.18% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.0% [13]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short plastic futures (L2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300, and sell call options (L2601C7300) with a 50% ratio at a range of 40 - 70 to reduce costs [13]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures (L2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7100 and sell put options (L2601P7000) with a 75% ratio at a range of 30 - 60 to lock in procurement costs and reduce expenses [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: On Wednesday, affected by the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation, oil prices rebounded from the bottom, and polyolefins followed the upward trend [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monitor the release and implementation of "anti - involution" related policies after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 7 departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)" on Friday afternoon [17]. - The release of China's September manufacturing PMI index on September 30 [17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Internal market**: - Unilateral trend: This week, the PE disk first declined and then rose. On Wednesday, affected by the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflict, oil prices rebounded from the bottom, and polyolefins followed the upward trend, maintaining a volatile and strengthening state in the second half of the week [24]. - Capital movement: This week, the open interest increased compared with last week. The top five long - position holders increased their long positions, and the top five short - position holders increased their short positions. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly decreased, and the main profitable seats changed from net short to net long this week [24]. - Basis structure: Although PE is entering the peak season, the slow recovery of downstream demand and insufficient order follow - up have led to weak spot prices, and the basis remains at a discount. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 80 yuan/ton, in East China was - 40 yuan/ton, and in South China was + 100 yuan/ton [26]. - Month - spread structure: Due to the generally optimistic market expectations for the subsequent macro - situation, the L1 - 5 month - spread shows a contango structure. Driven by crude oil this week, the L2601 contract strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread narrowed [30]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous decline of PE prices, the production profits of various production lines have been compressed recently. Currently, only the coal - based production line maintains positive profits, while other lines are in a loss state. However, PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, and short - term losses usually do not cause unexpected shutdowns [35]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - According to the current balance sheet, as device maintenance decreases, supply pressure will gradually emerge. With the expected increase in PE imports in October, total supply may rise rapidly, and inventory is expected to change from destocking to stockpiling. Attention should be paid to the actual rhythm of imports and the increase in demand [40]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.84% (+ 1.48%). Multiple devices are set to restart at the end of the month, and the operating rate is expected to rise. From the maintenance plan, device maintenance in October is expected to decrease, and supply will increase rapidly. ExxonMobil's new device is expected to start production at the beginning of October [44]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: This week, the overseas PE price further declined, and offers from North America and the Middle East increased. Due to the weak overseas market, PE products are flowing into China at low prices. Considering shipping time, PE imports are expected to increase from late October to November [49]. - Export: Enterprises have high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season. However, the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [49]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate of PE is 42.17% (+ 1.21%). The operating rates of major downstream industries have all increased, with the agricultural film industry having a relatively large increase. PE downstream is still in the transition to the peak season, and demand is expected to increase month - on - month. However, since the peak season started late this year, the demand recovery is slow, providing limited support for PE [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene market include the possible repeated submission of "anti - involution", the vulnerability of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, and the insufficient demand of major downstream PP, which leads to a contraction in the price difference between PP and propylene and a lack of ability to accept high - priced propylene. The PL01 contract is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. The propylene trend is highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread oscillates between 490 - 540 yuan/ton. Recently, as PP maintenance increases, its valuation is repaired, and propylene follows the upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled. The basis has shrunk from a high of 190 to - 15 yuan/ton. Considering the characteristics of the 01 contract, the month - spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices, and the hedging and arbitrage strategy is to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices [15][17]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of new capacity coming on stream on the supply side, and the growth rate of PP terminal demand is lower than that of supply, leading to inventory accumulation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the supply - demand gap in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream PP has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk, and most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillatory state, and the price range of PL01 is 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, those who went long at around 6300 can still hold their positions [15]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is in an oscillatory state. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled, and currently, the spot is stable in the short - term, and the futures price rebounds slightly [15]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, the direction is still to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices [16][17]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. When the PP - PL spread is around 500, add positions [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 0.0513 and a historical percentage of 0.102 (3 - year) [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell propylene futures at high prices and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy propylene futures at low prices and sell put options to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On the crude oil side, sanctions and disputes around Russia drive the market up. On the industrial side, as PP maintenance increases this week, its valuation is repaired, driving propylene up. Additionally, as PDH profits are compressed, planned maintenance increases [20]. - **Negative Information**: This week's data on the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits and the second - quarter GDP are better than expected, increasing the probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in October [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On September 30th, China's official manufacturing PMI will be released [23]. - On October 1st, the US September ISM manufacturing data is expected to be 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7 [23]. - On October 3rd, economic data such as the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls will be released [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract first declined and then rebounded. The trading volume did not change much. The net long positions of the main profitable seats decreased, the positions in the top - ten long and short lists did not change significantly, the net short positions of profitable seats decreased slightly, foreign investors' net short positions increased slightly, and retail investors' net long positions increased slightly [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily line, propylene is in a rebound during an oscillatory decline, and the short - term upper pressure is still near the middle track. From the hourly line, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a possible transition to oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [24]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 01 closed at - 15 yuan/ton, compared with - 67 yuan/ton last week. The 01 - 02 month - spread of propylene closed at - 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, showing an overall reverse arbitrage trend but with oscillations [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). Although the profits of major refineries increased, the cracking capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, mainly affected by the new cracking capacity of Yulong [30]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - The cracking profit of Asian naphtha was - 56 US dollars/ton (- 27), and that of Asian propane was - 14 US dollars/ton (- 12). Propane cracking profit was better than naphtha cracking profit, but as the propane price strengthened, propane cracking profit weakened [32]. - The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and that based on CP cost was - 170 yuan/ton (- 175). Currently, both the propylene monomer and PP sectors are in a loss - making state [32]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The price difference between PP raffia and propylene was 225 yuan/ton (+ 160), and that between PP powder and propylene was 255 yuan/ton (+ 130). The pressure caused by the price difference still exists [34]. - The profit of propylene oxide (PO) by different methods showed different trends. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1191 yuan/ton (+ 6), with little change. The profit of acrylic acid was + 391 yuan/ton (+ 214), with a significant improvement. The profit of butanol was + 147 yuan/ton (+ 84), with little change. The profit of octanol was 264 yuan/ton (- 84), with a relatively large decline recently but still in a relatively good profit state among downstream products. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 371 yuan/ton (- 87), with little change [36]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has shown little recent fluctuation. With fewer planned maintenance activities in South Korea in September and October, imports are expected to remain at a high level [41]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased. In October, Binhuahua and Lihuayi have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand gap will oscillate [43]. 3.5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection - This week, due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, the overall operating rate of propylene increased to 75.52% (+ 1.67%), still at a high level. In October, Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical still have plans for production start - up and capacity increase, while on the PDH side, Bohua, Binhuahua, Haiwei, Lihuayi, etc. have maintenance plans [46]. - This week's supply increase mainly comes from the increased load of Wanhua Penglai. The production volume in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate in the next few weeks. Although Zhenhua is restarting, Jinneng's maintenance is postponed, and the maintenance plans of Binhuahua and Lihuayi are expected to offset some of the incremental supply [48]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The price difference between PP powder and propylene is still relatively low, and many devices are shut down. This week, Shandong Kairi resumed production at a low - load operation [54]. - In the Shandong region, demand increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of PP devices. There were different production - related changes in various downstream industries such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has marginally improved, and the inventory accumulation expectation has narrowed with unexpected maintenance. However, the peak - season under - performance expectation is hard to reverse, and the upside of polyester is limited. The short - term drive is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation expectation will keep the valuation under pressure [1]. - In the near term, the port's visible inventory has decreased to a historical low, the supply elasticity is limited, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized, so there is limited downward momentum. In the long term, the supply will gradually enter the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation expectation from November is over 150,000 tons per month on average [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The port's visible inventory is at a historical low, the supply elasticity is limited, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized [2]. - **Long - term trading expectation**: The supply will enter the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation expectation will put long - term pressure on the valuation. The macro sentiment may provide new support for the price [6]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Price range**: The EG2601 oscillates in the range of 4150 - 4350 [9]. - **Strategy suggestions**: EG2601 accumulative option purchase, sell EG01 put option eg2601 - P - 4150 at low prices. For basis strategy, consider positive spreads when the 10 - day paper cargo +70 is below [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Provide polyester price range forecasts and corresponding volatility information. Also, give hedging strategy suggestions for different scenarios such as inventory management and procurement management [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Present key data of MEG and polyester, including price, spread, profit, inventory, and operating rate, and show their week - on - week changes [11][12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerned Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Stable Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", but its actual impact on the EG supply side is expected to be limited [13]. - **Negative information**: India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced anti - dumping duties on ethylene glycol imports from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Polyester load and the pre - National Day downstream replenishment rhythm. Also, the implementation of the restart plans of Xinjiang Tianye, Satellite Chemical, and Xinjiang Tianying [15][16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - volume and capital interpretation**: The ethylene glycol market shows a weak oscillation in the range of 4150 - 4300, with shrinking trading volume. The main funds are still bearish. The near - term 10 contracts maintain a premium structure over 01, and the basis has weakened slightly [17][20][26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Provide valuation and profit data of MEG, including cost, upstream and downstream profits, and show their week - on - week changes [30]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Provide the supply - demand balance sheet data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, demand, inventory, etc., and mark the expected production changes of some enterprises [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The ethylene glycol operating load has slightly decreased this week. The domestic production will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. Some devices have stopped or are planning to restart, and production plan adjustments may occur due to economic factors [58]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load has decreased to 90.3% this week. The polyester demand has a limited upward height in the seasonal peak, but the weaving orders have improved. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has decreased significantly, and the bottle - chip processing fee has improved [77]. 3.6 Industrial Chain - Related Chart Appendix - Provide various charts related to the ethylene glycol, polyester, and terminal industries, including price, spread, profit, operating rate, inventory, etc., to show their historical trends and seasonal characteristics [108][157][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, while the medium - to - long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, with the demand increment in the new energy field being more important [2][3][6]. - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week, affected by factors such as macro - economic indicators, nickel ore disturbances, and the overall macro - economic environment [12]. - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure, but there is still support at the bottom [35]. - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable, and the demand is weak overall, with some growth in the new energy field and stable demand in the stainless - steel sector [38][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel futures market was mainly volatile this week, with limited actual adjustments in the fundamentals. Concerns in the nickel ore sector focus on government sanctions, cost increases after environmental optimization, and potential lower - than - expected quota approvals. The new energy sector still provides support, and the price of MHP and nickel salts has increased due to the extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo. The price of nickel iron has declined recently, and the stainless - steel market has entered a phase of inventory accumulation [2]. - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, and the long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, especially the demand increment in the new energy field [3][6]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The previous strategies of buying the SHFE nickel 2511 futures contract and the SHFE nickel 2511 call option 130000 have been exited [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of SHFE nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [8]. - For inventory management, it is recommended to short SHFE nickel futures and sell call options to hedge risks. For procurement management, it is recommended to buy SHFE nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [9]. - The predicted price range of stainless steel is 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, and similar risk - management strategies are recommended for stainless - steel inventory and procurement [9][10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban and announce the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026. The Indonesian forestry working group took over the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine, and the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, and Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [11]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the spot trading of stainless steel is relatively weak [11]. - **Neutral Information**: Indonesia will approve the 2026 nickel ore quota in October [11]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The price of nickel was mainly affected by macro - economic indicators and nickel ore disturbances, and the price of stainless steel was restricted by the overall macro - economic environment. The net short positions of the main contracts decreased before the holiday, and the market sentiment was cautious [12]. - **Fund Flows**: The net positions of key profitable seats decreased, and some institutions began to reduce their positions. The inflow of funds into stainless - steel futures was more cautious, with some funds opening short positions at high prices and reducing positions for observation during the week [13]. - **External Market**: The external market trend was basically consistent with the domestic market. The nickel ore disturbances in Indonesia and the fluctuation of the US dollar index affected the market. The inventory of LME nickel was difficult to deplete, suppressing the upward space [28]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure. The profit space of producing electrolytic nickel by different processes is meager, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a state of continuous loss. The profit of selling MHP and nickel sulfate in the new energy integrated production chain is still positive, and the profit of the nickel - iron end has improved but has not turned positive [35]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials at domestic ports is at a high level, and the production of domestic enterprises has returned to normal. The production of domestic nickel iron and Indonesian nickel iron shows a seesaw effect, and the production of nickel iron and stainless steel may be slightly stronger in the future [38]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand of the nickel industry chain is weak. The demand in the new energy field has some growth momentum due to the increase in new - energy vehicle sales. The demand in the stainless - steel sector is stable, with an expected increase in demand during the peak season in September and October. Attention should be paid to the impact of EU stainless - steel tariffs on exports [42]. 3.5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term supply - demand balance, the supply side is relatively abundant, with continuous production expansion in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the supply - demand balance lies in the new energy demand. The marginal increment of stainless - steel demand is limited, and the marginal increment of the new energy sector has also weakened recently. Attention should be paid to the performance of stainless steel during the peak season and the development of the new energy sector [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Risk assets and regulatory disturbances were the main reasons for the multiple declines in the bond market in the third quarter, indicating that the core drivers of fundamentals and liquidity remained unchanged, and there was no risk of a cyclical reversal from the underlying framework of the bond market [1][16]. - Most of the negative disturbances in the third quarter were unrelated to the fundamentals and liquidity levels and were fully reflected in the current pricing, so there was no reason to be pessimistic about the fourth quarter. The central bank provided consistent support in terms of liquidity throughout the third quarter. The weakening of fundamental data in August increased the necessity of macro - policy support, which might lead to a shift in the focus of monetary policy towards "stable growth" [5]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may face pressure at the beginning, but there may be a downward opportunity with the implementation of policy加码. The central government may increase overall policies, and monetary policy may be implemented first by the end of the year. The central level of treasury bond yields in the fourth quarter may decline slightly compared to the end of the third quarter, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond at the end of the third quarter around 1.87% and may fall below 1.8%, and the quarterly oscillation range around 1.78% - 1.95% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third Quarter: Exogenous Factors Dominated - **Market Review** - **July**: Policy implementation and rising expectations led to a significant improvement in risk appetite. At the beginning of July, the bond market continued the strong and narrow - range oscillation trend of the second quarter. The implementation of anti - involution policies and the announcement of a trillion - level infrastructure project in Yajiang Motuo Hydropower Station worried the market about the double impact of "rising inflation + significant investment increase" on bonds. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose from 1.66% at the beginning of July to 1.74%, an increase of 8bp [19]. - **August**: The seesaw effect between the bond market and risk assets weakened as the A - share market turned to a structural market [16]. - **September**: Regulatory disturbances and marginal signals emerged. The release of the draft public offering fee opinion at the end of the third quarter had a new impact on the market [16]. - **Core Issues** - The key issues in looking forward to the fourth quarter were whether the above negative factors were fully reflected and whether the bond market logic could return to its own fundamentals [16]. 3.2 Valuation Still Has Room for Repair - **Domestic Loose Expectations Are Stable**: The short - end cost - performance of the 10 - year treasury bond has been repaired, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined [23]. - **The Cost - Performance of Stocks and Bonds Has Rebounded**: The cost - performance of stocks and bonds has improved, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has a certain relationship with the dividend rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 [37][39]. - **"Deposit Migration" Still Needs Observation**: No specific content was provided in the text. 3.3 Waiting for the Swing Moment of Policy Focus - **Monetary Policy Has Been Stable Since the Third Quarter**: Monetary policy has been stable overall since the third quarter. The central bank carried out a large - scale interest rate transmission system reform and actively maintained market sentiment through open - market operations, indicating that the supportive stance of monetary policy remained unchanged and the upward trend of bond market yields was limited [44]. - **Multi - Dimensional Reforms to Stabilize the Market** - **The Second Joint Meeting of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance**: On September 3, the joint working group of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance held the second group leader meeting, discussing issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. This meeting was more focused on financial market operation and helped to stabilize market sentiment [49]. - **Changes in the Monetary Policy Framework: Adjustment of Primary Dealer Evaluation**: On September 12, relevant adjustments were made to the evaluation of primary dealers, which involved multiple aspects such as money market transmission, bond market market - making, and compliance and stable operation [51]. - **The Central Bank Adjusted the Bidding Mode of 14 - day Reverse Repos, Aligning with MLF**: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the bidding mode of 14 - day reverse repos to align with MLF, which had an impact on the market [52]. 3.4 Fundamentals: Pay Attention to the Risk of a Second Decline - In the first half of the year, GDP was significantly repaired with the support of the supply side. After seeing the problem of the decline in industrial enterprise profits, the policy shifted from stabilizing growth to stabilizing prices, which led to a slowdown in production. Since July, the manufacturing PMI reading has declined again, and industrial added value has decreased synchronously. After the data in August was released, the potential risk of a second decline may lead to a swing in the policy focus again [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the operating rate of coking coal mines has been continuously rising, and Mongolian coal has been actively cleared through customs, resulting in a strong supply of coking coal. As pre - holiday restocking nears its end, there is a risk of marginal deterioration in the coking coal inventory structure after the holiday, and it is expected that the difficulty of holding up spot prices will gradually increase. The price increase of coke has officially started and is expected to be officially implemented during or after the National Day. At that time, the immediate coking profit is expected to improve slightly, and the probability of large - scale production cuts by coking enterprises in the short term is not high. Blast furnace steel mills are actively increasing production, with molten iron output remaining above 2.4 million tons, indicating strong demand for coke, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand of coke. In the short term, the coking coal futures may face downward pressure, and the coke market will follow the trend of coking coal. In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the trading theme for the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment fluctuations and mine over - production inspections on the coking coal and coke market. Market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and their willingness to hold goods has also increased compared with the first half of the year. It is maintained that coking coal and coke are not considered as short - side allocations in the black - metal sector, and the main coking coal futures are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern. A breakthrough above the previous high requires the introduction of substantial favorable policies or an unexpected decline in the mine operating rate. Subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal demand after the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee in late October, and the proposal of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Proximal Trading Logic**: The number of available days of coking coal inventory for downstream coking enterprises is higher than the seasonal average, and the restocking logic has temporarily ended. After the holiday, upstream mines will face greater inventory pressure, and it is expected that the difficulty of holding up spot prices will increase. As the "Silver October" peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal demand after the holiday. In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a non - prosperous peak season, and there is still pressure in the real - world steel market [4]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: "Anti - involution" is the key trading focus for the second half of the year, and macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee in October and the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. The loose liquidity supports the overall valuation of commodities [12]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to oscillate within a range. The JM2601 coking coal futures are expected to trade between 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the J2601 coke futures are expected to trade between 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high, with the recommended entry range for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio being (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a reverse spread trade for coking coal 1 - 5, with the recommended entry range being (- 70, - 60); go long on the coking coal 2605 contract when the price is low, with the recommended entry range being (1200, 1250) [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Recently, the basis of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port has strengthened slightly, and the coke basis has oscillated at a low level. There is no definite opportunity for positive cash - futures arbitrage. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread trade for coking coal 1 - 5. The reasons for going long on the far - month contract are: the 01 contract has industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure, while the short - side force in the far - month 05 contract is weak; the 01 contract has position - limit constraints, while the far - month contract has fewer restrictions; the Dalian Commodity Exchange has expanded the number of delivery warehouses and delivery capacity, which is beneficial for short - side delivery, and the near - month coking coal contract is restricted. Short the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high, with the recommended entry range for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio being (1.5 - 1.55) [14]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 38.64% and a historical percentile of 76.02%. The monthly price range forecast for coke is 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 32.23% and a historical percentile of 69.14%. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, coking enterprises worried about future price declines can short the J2601 coke contract, with a recommended hedging ratio of 25% at the entry range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at the entry range of (1830 - 1880). For procurement management, coking plants worried about future price increases can go long on the JM2605 coking coal contract, with a recommended hedging ratio of 50% at the entry range of (1150, 1200) and 25% at the entry range of (1200, 1250) [15]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Data**: The operating rate and daily output of coking coal mines and coal - washing plants have increased. The inventory of coking coal in some mines has decreased, while the inventory of coking coal in coking enterprises and some ports has increased. The operating rate and daily output of coking enterprises and steel mills' coking departments have decreased slightly. The inventory of coke in coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of coke in steel mills and some ports has increased [16][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices**: The prices of most coking coal and coke products have increased compared with the previous week. The immediate coking profit has decreased, while the import profit of some coking coal has increased [19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices**: The coking coal and coke futures prices have fluctuated. The basis of some coking coal has strengthened, and the calendar spreads of coking coal and coke have changed. The coking profit on the futures market has fluctuated at a low level, and the ratios of main contracts have changed slightly [20][21]. - **Black - Metal Warehouse - Receipt Report**: The warehouse - receipt quantities of some black - metal products have changed, with the warehouse - receipt quantity of coking coal decreasing and the warehouse - receipt quantity of coke increasing [22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting an average annual growth target of about 4% for the added value of the steel industry in the next two years. Some regions have entered the winter heating season. Yunnan steel enterprises have taken substantial steps in "anti - involution". The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to increase. Import Mongolian coal ports will be closed during the National Day holiday and resume normal clearance on October 8 [23]. - **Negative Information**: Affected by a typhoon, a major steel trading hub in Guangdong was closed for management. The US President announced a new round of high - tariff measures on multiple imported products starting from October 1 [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - September 30: Pay attention to China's official manufacturing PMI for September. - October 1: Pay attention to the US ADP employment number and ISM manufacturing PMI for September. - October 2: Pay attention to the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27. - October 3: Pay attention to the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for September [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The recent rebound of the main coking coal contract JM2601 failed to break through the key resistance level, and the price fell back after encountering resistance. Currently, it is still operating within a wide - range oscillatory range of 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton. As the pre - holiday restocking market temporarily ends, market trading has become lighter, and the upward momentum on the futures market has shown a marginal weakening trend. It is expected to continue the range - oscillatory pattern in the short term [24]. - **Fund Trends**: The net short positions of key profitable seats in the coking coal market have fluctuated slightly, indicating that short - side funds have different views on the future market, and the coking coal market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. The profitable seats in the coke market have changed from net long to net short, suggesting that the market's confidence in the coke fundamentals has weakened, and the bearish sentiment is gradually dominant [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke markets generally show a deep - contango structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal has strengthened slightly, while the 1 - 5 calendar spread of coke has fluctuated little [31]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port has strengthened slightly, and the coke basis has oscillated at a low level [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. It is recommended to maintain the idea of shorting the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high [43]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Recently, with the start of pre - holiday restocking, the cost of coking coal for the blast furnace has increased, and the immediate coking profit has shrunk rapidly. The profit of blast furnaces has improved slightly, and steel mills are more motivated to increase production. Mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented during the National Day, and the immediate coking profit is expected to expand slightly [45]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In the first half of the year, due to the long - term decline in domestic coal prices, the import profit of Mongolian coal shrank, and the import volume decreased significantly year - on - year. Since June, the average increase in coking coal spot prices has exceeded 300 yuan/ton, the import profit of Mongolian coal under long - term contracts has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance at ports has increased significantly. This week, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports has exceeded 1200, higher than the same period in previous years, and the proportion of Mongolian coal imports is expected to continue to increase. The import profit of seaborne coal is a synchronous indicator of coal shipping volume, and coal shipping volume is a leading indicator of coking coal import volume. It is estimated that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal at ports in the future [49][55]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Limited by over - production inspections and safety supervision pressure, the production - increase space for coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be relatively limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in October will be 9.9 - 9.95 million tons. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm for customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased significantly, and the shipping volume of seaborne coal has also shown an increasing trend due to the recovery of import profit. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in October will be 9.8 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.21 million tons. Recently, the profit per ton of coke has shrunk rapidly, suppressing the enthusiasm for coke production increase. It is estimated that the weekly coke output in October will be maintained at 7.85 - 7.9 million tons [72]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - This week, the molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month, the profit in the blast - furnace segment has improved slightly, and high molten - iron output is expected to be maintained. Based on maintenance data, it is estimated that the average daily molten iron output next week will be 2.42 million tons, basically the same as this week [78]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For coking coal, the operating rate of domestic mines has continued to increase this week. The immediate supply - demand balance of coking coal corresponds to 2.4184 million tons of molten iron. Downstream steel mills are actively resuming production, and there is some resilience in blast - furnace molten iron in the short term. The coking coal market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. For coke, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the immediate supply - demand balance of coke corresponds to 2.4075 million tons of molten iron. There is no obvious static supply - demand contradiction. After the pre - National Day downstream restocking logic ends, there is a possibility of marginal deterioration in the coking coal inventory structure after the holiday, and it will be more difficult to hold up spot prices. The immediate coking profit is expected to expand slightly, and it is expected that the operating rate of coking enterprises will remain stable in the short term. Blast - furnace production is highly stable, and the molten iron output has increased steadily in the past two weeks. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the coke market. It is expected that the spot price will be in a dilemma after the first - round price increase is implemented [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]