Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an expected increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [2][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were oscillating weakly. The SC2512 contract opened at 472 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 463, and closed at 463, with a weekly increase of 17.5 or 3.64% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production. In September, OPEC's production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia's increase of 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's production is expected to increase in October. OPEC+ countries updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. Voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect of crude oil [3][4]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production is 515 - 520 million tons. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day. Due to the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russia's crude oil exports are approaching a high level. In September, its exports to India increased by 29% to 1.73 million barrels per day, to Turkey increased by 11% to 375,000 barrels per day, and to China decreased by 12% to 1.12 million barrels per day [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, the US crude oil daily production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and 229,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will build by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil next year is $51 per barrel [7]. - **Americas**: The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels [14]. - **Consumption**: The IEA has raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and maintained the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day. BP has postponed its forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. As of the four - week period ending October 3, the US refined oil demand was 20.897 million barrels per day on average, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [19][20]. - **Refined oil processing fee**: In the week of September 26, the weekly average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan per ton. The profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 99 yuan per ton [21]. - **Refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery operation rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week. The operation rate of major refineries in China was 62.24%, a decrease of 1.26% from the previous week, and the operation rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06% from the previous week [23]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic consumption market shows strong resilience during the "Double Festival" holiday, with cross - regional personnel flow hitting a record high. A - shares may experience increased short - term volatility but have a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to be in a moderately strong and volatile pattern [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, the probability of incremental holistic counter - cyclical adjustment policies is low, with more focus on structural policies [3] - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is complex, and the bond market's mid - term trend is moderately strong with oscillations and no obvious trend [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic and ample liquidity make bond market operations difficult. The 30 - year treasury bond shows obvious oscillation at the key neckline position [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - From January to August, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than large enterprises. The SME export index in August was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [12][15] - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. China opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff [12][15] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. In December, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 91.7% [14] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [14] - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 88.3 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 390.2 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 300 billion yuan [14] - The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List", and China firmly opposes this [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - The economic endogenous power is strengthening, and the downward pressure is weakening. If counter - cyclical adjustment continues to increase, it will be negative for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspects - In August, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021. The growth rate of social financing stock increased slightly, and the narrowing gap indicates strengthened economic activities [17] 3.3 Capital Aspects - DR007 has been declining since July 25, reducing capital costs. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and the Fed's rate cut may open space for domestic monetary policy [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal are 200 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating increased market attention to stocks. The long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - A - shares may have increased short - term volatility but a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is expected to be moderately strong with oscillations [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the price of live pigs will continue to decline. Although the price has temporarily stopped falling due to the price - holding sentiment of breeders and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage, the supply pressure from breeders still exists. It is recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis In October, the出栏 plans of large - scale breeding enterprises generally increased, and the market supply showed an upward trend. Breeders were still actively selling, and some enterprises accelerated the selling rhythm to avoid future risks. Slaughterhouses had smooth procurement, with sufficient pig supplies, keeping the pork supply loose [2][22]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis Terminal consumption weakened significantly, with a decline in household and catering procurement demand. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses decreased simultaneously, and the sales speed of白条 slowed down, continuously constraining the pork price [2][22]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report does not provide specific content on cost - profit analysis other than showing relevant profit charts. 5. Market Outlook After continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of breeders emerged, and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage provided support, causing the price to temporarily stop falling. However, the selling pressure of breeders remained, and the live - pig price was expected to decline further. It is advisable to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers short - term evaluations for various commodities including glass, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and providing trading suggestions [1][3]. Summary by Commodity Glass - National float glass average price is 1260 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day;开工率 is 76.01%, unchanged weekly; total inventory of sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, up 5.84% [1]. - Terminal demand is rising, but downstream orders are weak, inventory is increasing. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1215. Suggestion: wait and see or short - term long on dips [1]. Gold - There are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term [1]. Iron Ore - From September 29 to October 5, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7758 million tons, up 172,100 tons; 45 - port arrivals were 2.6087 million tons, up 248,200 tons; northern six - port arrivals were 1.4516 million tons, up 450,200 tons [3]. - The probability of actual negative feedback in the short - term is low, but there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 81.9%, down 4.6% week - on - week. After - holiday market sentiment has improved, and short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Rebar - As of the week of October 8, rebar production was 203,400 tons, down 1.75%; factory inventory was 192,340 tons, up 21.04%; social inventory was 467,300 tons, up 5.4%; apparent demand was 146,010 tons, down 39.43% [4]. - Steel demand has declined due to the holiday, and inventory has increased. Short - term steel prices are expected to adjust slightly, and short - term range operation is recommended [4]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2213 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with support at 2250. Suggestion: wait and see until the decline stabilizes [5]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4640 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 4840. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 9, the national average pork price in wholesale markets was 18.64 yuan/kg, down 3.5% from before the holiday. Spot prices are expected to remain low for some time, and futures prices may continue to decline in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - Holiday - period positive news from palm oil producing areas supports price increases. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the September supply - demand data from MPOB [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC production increased in September, and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has eased. Short - term short - selling is recommended [9]. Soybeans - In the 40th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.01%. Domestic soybean prices are under pressure due to increased supply. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listings [10]. Rubber - 9 - 10 months are the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asia. Supply is expected to be loose, demand growth is limited, but low inventory supports prices. Short - term low - level trial long is recommended [11]. PTA - In October, there are maintenance plans for some PTA plants, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Silver - The US government shutdown continues, and the US dollar index has rebounded. Silver is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term, but is bullish in the long - term [13]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The economic fundamentals are bearish for the bond market in the long - term. Bond market operation is difficult, and an oscillatory mindset should be adopted [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices face medium - term pressure but have short - term support. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term transitional trading [1]. - Do not chase the high price of gold. Observe the further trend of the US dollar index [1]. - For rubber, it is supported by low inventory and low production in the medium term, but the short - term supply - demand drive is weak. Wait and see or conduct short - term trading [3]. - In October, the asphalt market is expected to maintain a low - price stable and high - price pressured trend [4]. - For iron ore, short - term long positions at low prices are recommended [5]. - For coking coal, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For rebar, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the support levels of the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils [7]. - For silver, observe the market as the follow - up upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. - For palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term supply is loose, which suppresses the rise of domestic soybean futures prices [9]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [11]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait and see or conduct short - term long positions after a pullback [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [13]. Summary by Variety Oil - On October 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day in November, falsifying the expectation of a large - scale increase. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels [1]. - The OPEC production increase cycle suppresses oil prices, but short - term geopolitical factors and OPEC+ policy provide support [1]. Gold - US President Trump is negotiating a Gaza cease - fire agreement, which is close to being reached [1]. - During the holiday, gold and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, but it is not recommended to chase the high price [1]. Rubber - ANRPC's August 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in August decreased by 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, and consumption decreased by 1% to 1.256 million tons. In the first 8 months, cumulative production decreased slightly by 0.03% to 8.856 million tons, and cumulative consumption decreased by 0.6% to 10.146 million tons. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [3]. - In the first 8 months, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were slightly down by 0.1% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 7.7% [3]. - In September - October, the Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the peak tapping season, with an expected increase in production and exports, and overall limited demand growth [3]. Asphalt - The national petroleum asphalt planned volume in October 2025 was 2.592 million tons, a 0.04% month - on - month decrease and a 22.93% year - on - year increase. During the holiday, the domestic asphalt capacity utilization rate was 36.8%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase [4]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" for highway construction shows a low growth rate in highway mileage. In October, the demand in the north increased, while that in the south stagnated [4]. Iron Ore - From September 22 - 28, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 146,700 tons month - on - month, and at 45 ports decreased by 314,500 tons month - on - month [5]. - Overseas iron ore prices rose slightly during the holiday, and the supply - demand structure improved [5]. Coking Coal - There were supply disturbances such as mine accidents and over - production penalties, and the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal increased by about $3.8 per ton compared with the third quarter [5]. - Considering the pre - holiday weak market, the impact is expected to be limited, and the post - holiday customs clearance volume is expected to remain high [5]. Rebar - The price of Tangshan billets remained stable at 2,950 yuan per ton, and the spot market was closed with a stable price expectation. During the holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction and then seasonal inventory accumulation [7]. - Pay attention to the demand expectation changes brought by macro variables in October, and the steel price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7]. Silver - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that there is uncertainty about future interest rate cuts. During the holiday, silver followed gold's rise passively, and the follow - up upward momentum is insufficient [7]. Live Pigs - As of October 9, the national live pig price showed a stable - to - weak trend, with most provincial prices falling [8]. - The price during the National Day showed a "off - peak season" downward trend, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Palm Oil - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association requests the government to reconsider the B50 plan in 2024 due to potential insufficient production [8]. - The main producing areas are in the production reduction period, and illegal plantation rectification in Indonesia is beneficial to prices, but weak demand may limit the price rebound [8]. Soybeans - In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 7.341 million tons, a 20.2% increase in daily export volume year - on - year. The export revenue was $3.11 billion [9]. - New soybeans in Northeast China are on the market in large quantities at low prices, and imported soybeans have sufficient arrivals [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 11 yuan per ton to 2,242 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.62% to 82.53%, and the downstream total capacity utilization rate increased by 3.83% to 74.62% [11]. - Port and enterprise inventories decreased, and downstream replenishment is expected after the holiday [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,276 yuan per ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend. The weekly production increased by 4.18% to 776,900 tons, and the manufacturer's total inventory decreased by 5.93% [12]. - The float glass start - up rate is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market was stable during the holiday, and downstream replenishment is expected after the holiday [12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE decreased by 2 yuan per ton to 7,240 yuan per ton. The weekly production decreased by 1.14% to 292,500 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 18.12% [13]. - The downstream average start - up rate increased, and there is an expectation of replenishment after the holiday [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The fundamentals of the coke market remain healthy, with prices expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - After the peak season, there is still room for the manganese - silicon price center to decline [4]. - Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday with limited decline [4]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [5]. - The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The short - term trend of pig prices is expected to be weakly adjusted, with a possibility of a small rebound [6]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for crude oil due to supply surplus pressure [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [9]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for PX as PXN is under pressure [9]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks [10]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks before the holiday [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bond market operation is difficult, and the stock - bond seesaw should be concerned [11]. Summary by Short - Comments Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 34 yuan/ton. Supply has declined, and demand has a good rigid support. Mainstream coke enterprises have proposed a price increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2253 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. Domestic methanol starts at a high level, and downstream demand recovers. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at 2365 [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate is 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50%. Costs are slightly strengthened, and the loss degree deepens. After the peak season, there is room for the price center to decline [4]. Rebar - The price of billets in Tangshan is stable at 2970 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises have weak pre - holiday stocking willingness. Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday [4]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1282 yuan/ton. Production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the lower support at 1260 [5]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7242 yuan/ton. Production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and downstream start - up rates are expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at 7200 [6]. Pig - The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8%. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short - term with a possible small rebound [6]. Soybean - National port soybean inventory is 938.5 million tons, increasing. Domestic new soybeans are on the market, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - National key - area commercial inventory is 55.22 million tons, decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. Crude Oil - Iraq has resumed oil exports, and OPEC+ may increase production quotas in November. It is advisable to short at high positions due to supply surplus [8]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. PX - The average domestic and Asian PX start - up rates are rising. PXN is under pressure, and it is advisable to short at high positions [9]. Silver - There are differences within the Fed. Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions [10]. Gold - Sino - US trade issues and Fed policies boost gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [10]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - New policy - based financial tools are introduced, which are bullish for the stock market and bearish for the bond market in the medium and long - term. Concern should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy recommendation is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [5] Core View of the Report - International risk aversion has increased, with geopolitical factors and tariff disruptions leading to a rise in market risk aversion. The Fed's independence and internal disagreements have added more uncertainties, increasing the risk aversion factors and making precious metals oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large increase in precious metals prices in the previous period, there is a need to be vigilant about external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [2][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the implementation of US tariffs and the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals corrected to some extent. The market is currently pricing in two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, totaling 50 basis points. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products starting from October 1, but will adhere to the 15% tariff ceiling for trade partners with existing agreements. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure construction, with priority in semiconductor and key mineral fields [14] - In August, the US core PCE price index met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a high probability of another cut in October. The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing support for the Fed's potential interest rate cut [16][17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, but the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating pressure in the labor market [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was at a low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rebounded. The ISM manufacturing index in August was below expectations, and the output index fell into the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE price index were revised, showing that the US economic downward pressure is increasing [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - China and the US will hold talks in Spain. Trump mentioned sanctions on Russia, asked Europe to put economic pressure on China, and announced tariffs on semiconductor companies. After China's military parade, the geopolitical situation has become tense again [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the need for interest rate cuts. The US stock market, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB has a certain appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - International risk aversion has increased, and precious metals are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large previous increase in precious metals prices, attention should be paid to external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is facing weak demand during the peak season, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. If there are no significant positive policies, steel prices may continue to operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. Market demand increased at the beginning of the week due to positive expectations and coke price hike expectations, but terminal demand was weak in the second half of the week. As the holiday approached, fear of high prices increased, and merchants mainly focused on reducing inventory. As of September 26, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the financial regulatory chief said that "whitelist" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan; the CSRC chairman mentioned that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the SAFE chief said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits and loans at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's relevant measures on September 25, which involve various product categories including steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that measures would be taken to expand market consumption in the auto industry and improve the management system [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, with the increase narrowing [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Sunday this week was 105,500 tons, lower than last week's 106,500 tons. In the short term, as the National Day holiday approaches, pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and there is pressure for rebar to accumulate inventory during the peak season after the holiday [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - After the pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the market is worried about weak demand after the holiday and faces inventory reduction pressure. Without major positive policies, steel prices may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to risk control during the long holiday [26]. - From the disk perspective, the black series generally declined. The main contract of coking coal fell nearly 4%, coke fell 2.73%, rebar and iron ore fell more than 1%, and hot - rolled coil fell the least at 0.87%. Overall, positions were reduced. The main rebar 01 contract closed at 3,099, down 40 points, with a position of 1.963 million lots, a reduction of 12,500 lots [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].