Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends, with different influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the prices of coal, steel, and agricultural products are affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, and cost factors, while precious metals are affected by the US economic data and monetary policies [1][2][4]. 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has dropped from the previous high, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the profitability of terminal steel mills and the resumption of coal mine production [1]. - **Coking Coal Data**: The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period; the daily average output is 52.14 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons; the raw coal inventory is 277.10 tons, a decrease of 15.43 tons; the clean coal inventory is 166.38 tons, a decrease of 9.23 tons [1]. Chemical Products - **Soda Ash**: The market is oscillating, with supply increasing and downstream demand general. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 1320. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - **Soda Ash Data**: The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 72.38 tons, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the total inventory of manufacturers is 186.46 tons, a decrease of 2.15% week - on - week [2]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up is expected to rise at a high level, and the downstream demand is expected to be stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 2430. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [7]. - **Methanol Data**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2410 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the port inventory is 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons week - on - week; the production enterprise inventory is 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons week - on - week [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The start - up is stable, the supply is abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 7165. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Polypropylene Data**: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing polypropylene is 7126 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 76.46%, and the downstream industry average start - up is 48.37%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week [7]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: Affected by the expected policy of crude steel regulation, the demand may be affected. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [4]. - **Iron Ore Data**: From July 21st to July 27th, the arrival volume of 47 ports in China is 2319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of 45 ports is 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons month - on - month [4]. - **Rebar**: The cost has increased, supporting the rebound of steel prices, but there are risks of over - speculation. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Rebar Data**: On July 30th, the domestic steel market rose. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an increased by 30 to 3180 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade anti - seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3463 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - **Gold**: The US second - quarter GDP final value was revised upwards, which is positive for the US dollar index. Gold is still oscillating with a bearish bias [8]. - **Silver**: The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is in line with expectations, and silver is expected to oscillate at a high level with a slightly bearish bias [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price has risen. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and the sentiment of secondary fattening. It is recommended to go long in the short term and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. - **Pig Data**: On July 30th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% from the previous day [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range in the short term. Although there is a possibility of tariff adjustment, the domestic inventory is abundant and the demand is weak [5]. - **Palm Oil Data**: On July 30th, the trading volume of palm oil is 66 tons, and the total trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil is 102566 tons, an increase of 108% from the previous trading day [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by the substitution effect of soybean meal and other factors, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Data**: In June, the rapeseed crushing volume in Canada is 856096.0 tons, an increase of 3.0% month - on - month; the rapeseed oil production is 364592.0 tons, an increase of 3.22% month - on - month; the rapeseed meal production is 507038.0 tons, an increase of 3.47% month - on - month [6]. Others - **Crude Oil**: The international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. The inventory is not high, and the production growth is restricted. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil Data**: As of the week of July 25th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves is 8.29432 billion barrels, an increase of 794 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory is 4.26691 billion barrels, an increase of 770 million barrels from the previous week [10]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the supply - demand relationship may remain balanced. It is recommended to go long at a low level following the trend of crude oil [12]. - **PTA Data**: The CFR price of PX is 852 US dollars/ton, and the price of East China PTA is 4830 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4650 yuan/ton [12]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price in the origin has decreased, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the overall trend is oscillatory [13]. - **Rubber Data**: As of July 27th, the social inventory of natural rubber in China is 129.3 tons, an increase of 4600 tons month - on - month, an increase of 0.4% [13]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The policy orientation of the second half of the year is positive for the bond market, but the internal logic of the bond market is not clear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to high - cost support from coking coal, despite the general downstream demand affected by weather and the suppression of speculative demand by the correction of coking coal and coke futures [1]. - Gold is still in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term as the US tariff issue remains uncertain and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and non - farm data, while the US dollar index has limited upward momentum [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector, but the upward space in the long term should be viewed with caution as the downstream demand is resilient but production may increase [3]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to tight supply, cost support, and stable downstream demand [4]. - The bond market's logical main line is unclear. With the global economic recovery and the smooth progress of China - US talks, attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4]. - The national pig price continues to decline. It is recommended to short opportunistically and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm due to oversupply [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the substitution effect of soybean meal, the weakening of US soybean prices, and the expected increase in new supply. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - Polypropylene's PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the supply is abundant and the inventory is high [7]. - Silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The positive outlook for the global economy is fundamentally beneficial to silver, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term. International factors support the price, but the domestic market has a loose supply and weak demand [8]. - Soda ash's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see as the production is increasing, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is low - price - based [9]. - Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels as the US increases pressure on Russia and the market believes the trade war is weakening, and the inventory is not high [10][11]. - PTA should be short - term long at low levels as it follows crude oil, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation and weakening cost support [11]. - Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels as the weather is normal, there is a slight inventory reduction in China, and the downstream demand is improving [12]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the domestic production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is stable, and the port may accumulate inventory [13]. Summary by Variety Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: On July 29, domestic steel prices turned from falling to rising. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3441 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The national 136 - enterprise sample start - up rate was 33.33%, up 0.88% week - on - week, and the daily output was 14,615 tons, up 2.31% week - on - week. The weekly demand of five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, up 0.26% week - on - week. The inventory of 60 independent enterprises decreased by 2.22% [3]. - **Coke**: On July 29, mainstream steel mills raised the bid price for wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the US tariff issue and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, gold is in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: With the positive outlook for the global economy, silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: On July 29, the national average pork price was 20.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The national pig price is falling, and it is recommended to short opportunistically [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production, and rapeseed meal production increased month - on - month, while soybean - related data decreased. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia is expected to export more than 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East - China's drawn - grade polypropylene was 7117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1366 yuan/ton, with a recent price rebound. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: PXCFR was reported at 852 US dollars/ton. The PTA supply is expected to be abundant, and it should be short - term long at low levels [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Jiangsu Taicang market was 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels. Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand and China are relatively stable. The European replacement tire market sales decreased year - on - year. Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for various commodities including纯碱, crude oil, short - term and long - term national bonds, silver, etc. It offers trading suggestions such as waiting and seeing, short - term selling, or paying attention to certain market indicators for each commodity [1][2][4]. Itemized Summaries Non - Metal Chemicals - **纯碱**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1315.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 72.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, but actual output release is slow. Trump's remarks on Russia have pushed up overnight crude oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The plant operating rate has declined this week, and terminal demand is affected by rainfall and funds. It will still follow the trend of crude oil and be traded with an oscillatory mindset [10]. Bonds - **Short - term National Bonds**: The money market interest rates have mostly declined, indicating a loosening of the capital side, which is favorable for the bond market. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market has weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market [4]. - **Long - term National Bonds**: Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, and the market expects a stable agreement. Policy factors are unfavorable for the bond market. The main logical line of the bond market is not clear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [4]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the benchmark interest rate. It is in the expected market of the July Fed interest - rate meeting. The judgment of high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish bias is maintained [5]. - **Gold**: US tariff disturbances still exist, but the market focus has shifted. The upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is still oscillating with a bearish bias but may rebound in the short - term [6]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The wholesale price of pork has decreased. Near the end of the month, the supply is greater than demand, and the sales pressure of the breeding side has increased. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia has increased, and exports have decreased. The domestic basis has decreased, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level in the short - term, and short - selling is recommended [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The news of reducing pig production and promoting soybean meal substitutes in feed has put pressure on the market. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is high, and the short - term M09 may oscillate weakly [7]. Plastics - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 26.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton. Port inventory has decreased, and production enterprise inventory has also decreased. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 2440. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [9]. - **PX**: The supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation has eased. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Ferrous Metals - **Manganese Silicon**: The production of finished products is stable at a high level, and downstream demand is resilient. However, manufacturers' resumption of production is advancing, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become loose. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and the upside space in the long - term should be viewed with caution [12]. - **Coke**: Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin have raised the price of coke. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. After the short - term release of market sentiment, the coke futures will have a phased correction [13]. Building Materials - **Rebar**: The steel market has declined. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down, the market sentiment of speculation has cooled, and the steel price has followed the decline [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit of float glass enterprises has slightly increased, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available this week and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. However, driven by improved market sentiment, spot-futures traders and distributors in the North China market are more active in purchasing, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. As a result, most factories have significantly reduced their inventories. - The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1250 yuan. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy of selling high and buying low and pay attention to setting stop - losses. [2][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has risen, with an average price of 1190 yuan/ton, a increase of 13.88 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. - In the North China market, the upward trend is obvious. Driven by market sentiment, the purchasing enthusiasm of spot - futures traders and distributors is high, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories, and prices have been raised multiple times. - In the East China market, the negotiation focus has increased. Boosted by macro - sentiment and continuous price increases in the peripheral market, the prices of most enterprises in the East China region have risen. Processors have replenished their stocks moderately, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. [8] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - As of July 24, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.14%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - As of July 24, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 168.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.54 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 128.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.10 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 53.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 58.18 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that their orders basically remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement in demand. Currently, the profit level is still low, and a few enterprises reported a continued decline in orders. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to June 2025, the cumulative completed area of real estate was 22566.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year and an increase of 3.9 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile production in June was 2.799 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.904 million vehicles. [13] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.74%. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. - Driven by market sentiment, the purchasing enthusiasm of spot - futures traders and distributors in the North China region has increased, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories, leading to a larger decline in regional inventory. In the East China market, the overall sales have improved, and the inventory has continued to decrease month - on - month. With the continuous increase in peripheral prices and the narrowing of regional price differences, most enterprises in the East China region have adjusted their prices, which has accelerated the sales speed. At the same time, due to the relatively appropriate prices of over - aged and qualified products of some enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui, processors have replenished their stocks moderately, and enterprises have significantly reduced their inventories. [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of July 25, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market were 773,747, an increase of 28,882; the short positions were 950,052, an increase of 14,998. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish. [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises has slightly increased, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available this week and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. Driven by market sentiment, spot - futures traders and distributors in the North China market are more active in purchasing, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the start - up of float glass production lines. - The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1250 yuan. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy of selling high and buying low and pay attention to setting stop - losses. [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - The pig market continues to have an oversupply situation with weak demand, leading to a sluggish market. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Pig Price Market Review - No specific review content provided, only a mention of a graph on pig spot and futures prices [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The supply side has a large pressure on livestock farmers to sell pigs. Large - scale enterprises have a slow selling progress and some are selling pigs with lower weights. Due to continuous high temperatures, the feed - to - meat ratio is high, increasing costs. Small - scale farmers are more willing to sell large - weight pigs, and there is an increase in African swine fever in some areas, resulting in an abundant supply [2][20]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The high - temperature off - season persists, with average sales of large pigs. Slaughtering enterprises are continuously making losses and are cautious in purchasing. There is less entry into the secondary fattening market, so the demand remains weak [2][20]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - No specific analysis content provided, only mentions of graphs on self - breeding and self - raising breeding profits and purchased piglet breeding profits [16][19]. 5. Market Outlook - The supply side remains abundant with large pressure on small - scale and large - scale enterprises to sell pigs. The demand is still weak. The oversupply situation continues, and the market is sluggish. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [2][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term strategy of slightly bearish in a volatile market [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the US dollar exerts pressure on precious metals, and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. The market expects a low probability of a rate cut in July [2] - The US economy shows certain resilience, with rebounds in retail sales and relatively stable inflation data [3] - The relationship between the US dollar and gold is the main logical line in the near term, and attention should be paid to the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the rebound of the US dollar index, precious metals are generally weak but remain in a high - level volatile pattern. The silver follows gold passively, and gold moves in a seesaw relationship with the US dollar [11] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US has reached multiple trade agreements, including with the EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and imposed various tariff rates [13][15][16] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [13] - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, including threatening to remove Fed Chairman Powell and criticizing the high cost of the Fed's office building renovation [16][17] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase, mainly driven by auto sales. The US economy shows certain resilience, but the first - quarter GDP contracted [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US has reached trade agreements and imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on US products [13][16][23] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement of the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is affected by US tariff policies. The rise of the US stock market is supported by the resilience of the US economy and is beneficial to silver [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has an appreciation trend, but in the long run, the exchange rate cannot form a continuous trend and thus cannot have a trend - forming impact on precious metals. However, short - term large fluctuations need to be monitored [29] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July is still weak, but there is uncertainty. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of the US dollar index and the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract fluctuated weakly. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4704, the highest was 4810, the lowest was 4672, and the closing price was 4744, with a weekly increase of 44 or 0.94% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Improvement** - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a new production capacity of 3 million tons, and there is no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to June 2025, the domestic PX output was 18.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%; from January to May 2025, the domestic PX imports were 3.736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. - On the supply side, the operating rate of the Chinese PX industry decreased by 1.2% to 79.9%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. This week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out planned maintenance, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical reduced its load. The Asian PX industry's operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 72.9%, which is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. - This week, the supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation of near - term PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][6]. - **2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure** - From January to June 2025, the domestic PTA output was 35.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.02%. - On the supply side, there was no news of device changes this week. The PTA industry's operating rate was 79.7%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The 3.2 million - ton new production device of Sanfangxiang is currently under commissioning. - In the third quarter, the overall PTA device maintenance plan is limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production. Under the expectation of downstream polyester production reduction, the PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening, and there is an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In July, although some PTA devices are under maintenance, there is an expectation of downstream production reduction, and the PTA supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, with an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In August, some PTA devices have maintenance plans, but there is an expectation of new PTA device commissioning. The room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and the overall PTA supply - demand is near balance [10]. - **2.3 Weakening Polyester Demand** - From January to June 2025, the domestic polyester output was 39.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 5.796 million tons (accounting for 17.9% of the polyester output in the same period), a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. - The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry increased by 0.4% to 88.7%, among which the operating rate of the filament industry increased by 0.8% to 91.3%. This week, the increase in polyester load was mainly affected by the restart of staple fiber and filament devices. - The raw material inventory days of terminal texturing and weaving factories reached a new low this year, and enterprises have started to replenish raw material inventory, which has promoted the initial inflection point of the terminal operating rate. The rigid demand replenishment of texturing and weaving factories combined with the increase in speculative inventory has jointly alleviated the filament inventory pressure. Although the cash flow has recovered, it is still at a low level, and the reduction of filament inventory pressure may delay the production reduction rhythm of the polyester link [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, palm oil is expected to move in a volatile manner. The poor export situation of Malaysian palm oil in July and the relatively loose domestic supply due to active recent - month ship purchases, along with the continued dominant position of rigid - demand procurement in the demand side, may cause the basis price to continue to decline under pressure [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price and Market Review - The report presents a chart of the average palm oil price trend (yuan/ton) [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data [7]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report includes a chart of the statistics of palm oil's transaction average price and volume (tons, yuan/ton) [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report provides a chart of palm oil's import cost and profit (yuan/ton) [10]. 5. Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil's export volume from July 1 - 25 decreased significantly month - on - month, suppressing palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil supply is relatively loose in the short term due to active recent - month ship purchases. After a brief recovery, the import profit has deepened the inversion, and domestic ship purchases are progressing steadily. The demand side is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the basis price may continue to decline under pressure [2][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. The increases in East and Northeast China were relatively large, reaching over 180 - 200 yuan/ton, while the increases in South, Southwest, Northwest, and Central China ranged from 90 - 170 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying low-price dumping and unfair price behaviors. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins. From January to June, 16,500 urban old community renovation projects started nationwide, and the plan for 2025 is to start 25,000 projects. From July 22nd to 27th, there were multiple price increases for coke in markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan [5][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 114,700 tons, higher than last week's 93,700 tons. The rise in futures rebar drove an improvement in terminal sentiment, with significantly better market trading performance and obvious increases in trading prices [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections. Investment strategies include mainly adopting range operations for single positions, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach for inter - period arbitrage, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and steel profits, and adopting a wide - straddle consolidation strategy for options [28].