Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Silver is under short - term pressure but remains bullish in the medium term due to the difficulty of the Fed's December decision caused by the lack of employment data and the downward pressure on the US economy [1]. - Natural rubber shows a co - existence of raw material support and demand suppression, with a large price difference between natural and synthetic rubber, resulting in a transitional period of natural rubber price fluctuations [2]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. - The price of soybean meal is limited in its upward space due to sufficient supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand, and the 01 contract is in a short - term weakening and fluctuating state [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the bottom in the short term. Although affected by the decline of rapeseed oil futures, the departure of a large number of short - positions in the main contract provides support, and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Crude oil has a downward driving force under the situation of oversupply, and short - term geopolitical influence is weakened, so it should be treated with a weakening and fluctuating view [7]. - PTA has support in supply and demand, but with the loosening of crude oil prices, it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices and consider appropriate profit - taking [9]. - Short - term treasury bonds are slightly bullish in the medium term, with increased trading difficulty due to factors such as loose liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading [9]. - Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut [10]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [10]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [11]. - Soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report, and the Fed's December decision is difficult. The downward pressure on the US economy suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver, but the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December still exists, which exerts pressure on precious metals [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are high due to weather factors. In China, natural rubber social inventory shows different trends in light and dark rubber, with a slow seasonal inventory build - up in Qingdao. Terminal demand is insufficient, and the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber is large [2]. Live Pigs - On November 19, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased slightly. The pig price is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. Soybean Meal - As of November 19, domestic soybean meal spot prices declined in different regions, and the trading volume increased. Sufficient imported soybean supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand limit the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. Palm Oil - On November 19, a Malaysian palm oil producer aimed to maximize plantation output. The US biodiesel plan boosts the vegetable oil market, but the decline of rapeseed oil futures drags down palm oil. The departure of short - positions in the main contract provides support [6]. Crude Oil - As of November 14, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily production decreased slightly. Market speculation around Russia led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and the overall supply is in an oversupply situation [7]. PTA - The polyester market has low inventory, and downstream demand is expected to remain high in November. PTA supply has many maintenance plans in November, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but crude oil price fluctuations need attention [9]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating loose capital. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are favorable for the bond market, but trading is more difficult [9]. Gold - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes show deep differences on interest - rate cuts, increasing the uncertainty of a December rate cut, and gold is under pressure [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased. The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory decreased this week. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased. Supply is sufficient, production enterprise inventory increased, and downstream factory operating rates decreased slightly. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash decreased. Weekly production decreased, and factory inventory decreased slightly. The operating rate of float glass decreased slightly, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to run weakly [11][12].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the overall industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The Fed's internal turmoil is strong, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear, causing precious metals to fluctuate. Gold is under pressure and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The crude oil market is generally in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical factors bring uncertainties, so it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. - The short - end bond market is affected by a slightly tight capital supply, but the overall bond market is affected by multiple factors, and its operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. - Silver is under short - term pressure due to the US economic environment, but is still bullish in the medium term [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound [4]. - Rapeseed meal has a weak supply - demand pattern and is unlikely to have a trending upward market [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and its price has short - term support [10]. - Natural rubber has a situation where raw material support and demand suppression coexist, and it will oscillate in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed internal disputes over a December rate cut are large, and gold is under pressure, with a medium - term high - level oscillation expected. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. - **Silver**: US employment pressure is high, and economic downward pressure suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver. The Fed's December rate - cut situation is uncertain, and silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US oil inventories have increased, and refinery profits have risen. Geopolitical factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and US sanctions have increased market uncertainty. The overall supply surplus situation drives the price down, and it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Money market interest rates have mostly risen, indicating a slightly tight capital supply, which is negative for short - end bonds. However, the economic pressure in the fourth quarter and the central bank's operations are positive for the bond market. The bond market is difficult to operate, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound. Farmers are advised to hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported rapeseed meal is high, and domestic aquatic product demand is weak. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [5]. - **Palm Oil**: China's October palm oil imports decreased year - on - year. November supply has increased significantly, but Indian demand expectations have increased. It has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The production and port inventory of methanol are at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - **PVC**: The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the domestic demand is stable, and the social inventory is expected to increase. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **PTA**: In November, the supply of PTA has decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has short - term support [10]. Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Thai raw material prices have changed, and China's rubber tire production and export data show a mixed situation. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The coking profit has declined again due to rising costs, and the overall supply has continued to decline. The supply - demand structure of coke is healthy, but there is no expectation of price increase in the future, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - There is a large divergence within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The outlook for interest rate cuts is unclear, and precious metals are in a volatile state. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The supply - demand pressure of steel has been relieved, and the cost remains high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate strongly, but the upside is restricted by the off - season demand, and in the medium term, they may fluctuate around the cost [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon has increased, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [5]. - The tightness of the money market is negative for the short - term bond market, while central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [5]. - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the decision of the Fed lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term [6]. - The supply of live pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. - The price increase space of palm oil is limited due to over - production and weak demand. The domestic inventory has increased significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. - Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend. In the short term, the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level [8]. - The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is affected, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - The domestic soda ash market is firm, the downstream demand is stable, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been relieved, but there is still new production capacity pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and the terminal weaving starts to decline. The ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - The geopolitical issue in the crude oil market has eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. - The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the processing fee has been repaired. The PX blending demand and the relatively good supply - demand structure support the PTA price in the short term [13]. - The raw material price of natural rubber may remain high, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation state. The price is expected to transition weakly [14]. Summary by Variety Coke - The average national ton - coke profit is - 34 yuan/ton. The supply has declined due to cost and environmental protection, and the demand is mixed. The inventory is in a de - stocking state. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. Gold - The Fed is divided on interest rate cuts in December. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [2]. Rebar - On November 17, the domestic steel market rose. The supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and the cost remains high. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and fluctuate around the cost in the medium term [4]. Ferrosilicon - The开工 rate is 34.84%, and the daily output has decreased. The cost has increased, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level [5]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties have risen. The money market is tight, but central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Silver - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the Fed's decision lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [6]. Live Pigs - On November 17, the pork price decreased by 0.4%. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. Palm Oil - As of November 14, the domestic inventory has increased significantly. The price increase space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. Soybeans - In the 46th week of 2025, the inventory has decreased. Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend, and the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term [8]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 type PVC has decreased, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The production is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash has increased slightly, the production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is firm, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. Ethylene Glycol - The price has decreased, the production has increased slightly, and the port inventory has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - India has signed a procurement agreement, and the Russian export hub has resumed loading. Geopolitical issues have eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. PTA - The cost has increased, and the profit and processing fee have improved. The supply - demand has improved, and the price is supported in the short term [13]. Rubber - The raw material price has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The raw material price may remain high, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to transition weakly [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. Although the weak reality continued to suppress steel prices, the expectation of maintenance production increased, market sentiment returned to rationality, market activity was fair, and raw material support was strong. As of November 14, the average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. The average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel has entered the off - season of demand. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 236.88 | 234.22 | 2.66 | 1.14% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 160.42 | 166.84 | - 6.42 | - 3.85% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 415.75 | 425.7 | - 9.95 | - 2.34% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 77.52 | 77.43 | 0.09 | 0.12% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 333 | 333.02 | - 0.02 | - 0.01% | Weekly | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for precious metal futures is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the medium - term trends may diverge [2] 2. Core View of the Report - After a weekly - level market correction, precious metals started a new upward trend, with silver's increase and momentum significantly greater than that of gold [2] - The end of the US federal government shutdown, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets' decline, and the potential Fed rate cuts all impact the precious metal market [2] - The "pause" in Sino - US trade contradictions has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for gold [2] - The Trump administration's "tariff refund" plan, with a cost of up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $300 billion, and the strong call for Fed rate cuts may lead to a divergence in the trends of gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Precious metals resumed their upward trend after a correction, and silver outperformed gold. The end of the government shutdown, Sino - US trade situation, and Fed rate - cut expectations all affect the market [2][3] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Key factors include Fed rate - cut expectations, international geopolitics, and better - than - expected US economic data [4] 3.3 Data Presentations - Multiple charts present data on precious metal futures, including internal and external prices, trading volume, and positions of gold and silver futures; dollar index, US interest rates, and their relationship with gold prices; various US macroeconomic data; and fund positions and price ratios of precious metals [5][11][15]

国债期货：震荡略偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 市场回顾与展望：由于央行公开市场再度重启买卖国债，市场对利率收益率曲线调节的预期增加，国 债期货有所反弹，但是反弹幅度较为有限。随着中美贸易领域关系的缓和，避险情绪有所降温，逆周期调 节的紧迫性有所降低，并且适逢年底，稳增长措施的力度或有限，债市短期没有更多逻辑主线可以遵循， 中期依然震荡略偏多思路。 10月我国制造业PMI为49%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。非制造业PMI为50.1，比上月上升0.1个百分点。 综合PMI产出指数为50%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。10月末，社融存量同比增8.5%，M2同比增8.2%，环比均 下降0.2个百分点，企业资金需求有所减弱，表明经济动能有所减弱。但是价格数据表明，经济韧性依然存 在。10月份，CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第 6个月扩大。PPI环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨，同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百 分点 ...

期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 双焦：周末提涨落地，供应延续下滑 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格震荡运行。周五河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭 价格招标上调，涨幅为50-55元/吨，周末执行，焦炭第四轮提涨落地。虽然涨价四轮，但涨幅不及焦煤，焦 化厂现在普遍利润一般，出货节奏顺畅，焦企保持低库存运行。 展望：供应端，山西部分前期因井下原因生产受限的煤矿产量稍有恢复，但仍有因检查以及换工作面等 因素停减产的煤矿，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭产量延续下滑，中下游经过前期补库后采购有所放缓， 上游煤矿小幅累库，总体压力较小。整体上，盘面承压运行带动现货情绪转弱，竞拍流拍及降价煤矿增多， 但基本面支撑仍在，预计焦煤价格震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦 ...

2025年11月17日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，弱势震荡 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(华东) | 元/吨 | 5 | -19.5 | 24.5 | 125.6% | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 36.93 | 38.64 | -1.72 | -4.4% | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 154.36 | 148.71 | 5.65 | 3.8% | 周度 | | 周产量 | 万吨 | 197.60 | 198.89 | -1.29 | -0.65% | 周度 | | 内蒙古煤制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -245.2 | -211.4 | -33.8 | -16.98% | 周度 | | 华北焦炉气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | 122 | 148 | -26 | -17.57% | 周度 | | 西南天然气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -440 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic soda ash market is trending steadily with narrow price adjustments. With increasing supply, stable downstream demand, and a balanced production - sales situation, the inventory is expected to remain high. The soda ash price is forecasted to be weakly volatile in the near term, with the 01 contract facing resistance at the 1250 line. Key factors to watch include soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 75.76 million tons, a 2.29% increase from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 170.20 million tons, a 0.01% decrease. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to 11.6 days [2]. - Currently, soda ash enterprises have poor profits. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be stable, and the output of float glass is expected to run smoothly. With a loose supply - demand situation, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the 01 contract facing resistance at 1250 [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Spot and Futures Market**: The East China soda ash market was stable with narrow price adjustments and little change in basis [6]. - **Supply**: As of November 13, the domestic soda ash output was 73.93 million tons, a 1.01% decrease. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 182 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method was - 23.50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand** - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 13, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 89380 tons/day, a 1.42% increase from the previous week but a 1.76% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, up 0.96%. There is an expectation of cold - repair of production lines this week, with an estimated reduction of 1200 tons/day. In November, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is expected to decline, and the market difference is expected to widen [12]. - **Float Glass**: As of November 13, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75%, down 0.92 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.56%, down 0.86 percentage points. There are no plans for ignition or water - release of production lines this week, and the output may remain stable [12]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 13, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 170.73 million tons, a 0.40% decrease. The inventory of light soda ash was 80.02 million tons, down 1.44 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 90.71 million tons, up 0.75 million tons [14]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 14, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 920790, a decrease of 40204, and the short positions were 1168939, an increase of 3342. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]