Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. [2][4][35] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly this week. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. [4] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for Comment)", aiming to improve the standards for identifying low - price dumping and regulate market price order. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of promoting large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential communities across the country started renovation, and 6 regions had a start - up rate of over 80%. The national plan for 2025 is to start renovating 25,000 old urban residential communities. - There were multiple price adjustment announcements for coke in different markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan this week. [6][7] 3. Fundamental Analysis - The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. [2] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for coking coal is optimistic due to accumulating positive factors, but there is a risk of a post - sentiment - release correction [2]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a narrow range with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase stance, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. - Iron ore is likely to have a short - term oscillating trend as supply pressure eases and the supply - demand relationship improves marginally [4]. - The upward momentum of rebar prices may slow down and enter an adjustment phase due to market risks and weakening demand [4]. - Hog prices are expected to be weak and volatile, with a suggestion to short at an appropriate time for traders and sell - hedge for farmers [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with futures prices more likely to rise [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade policies and other factors [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds are negatively affected by rising capital costs and the overall economic situation, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being the main logic [7]. - Gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [7]. - Silver is likely to be slightly bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate decision, and the synchronization of gold and silver trends should be monitored [8]. - PTA is expected to have weak supply - demand prospects, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [8]. - Natural rubber may be affected by the Thailand - Cambodia conflict, and cautious short - term long positions can be considered [9]. - Polypropylene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions [10][11]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - On July 24, coke enterprises in multiple regions proposed a third - round price increase, and some downstream steel mills have accepted it. The mainstream steel mills will conduct tenders on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton effective from July 25 at 0:00 [2]. Crude Oil - The expected August export volume of CPC Blend crude oil from the Black Sea is 1.66 million barrels per day, about 6.5 million tons per month, similar to the July plan. Kazakhstan does not consider withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement [2]. Iron Ore - From July 14 - 20, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 3.714 million tons compared to the previous week. Steel mills'复产 has accelerated due to profit incentives, and overseas shipments have decreased this week [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending July 24, rebar production was 2.1196 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (1.39%) from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 74,300 tons (4.29%), social inventory increased by 28,100 tons (0.76%), and apparent demand increased by 104,100 tons (5.05%) [4]. Hog - On July 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.69, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.62 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects the 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons, both slightly higher than last year [5]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase year - on - year [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties all increased. The overnight rate rose 26.8 BP to 1.635%, the 7 - day rate rose 8.2 BP to 1.545%, the 14 - day rate rose 8.8 BP to 1.615%, and the 1 - month rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.536% [7]. Gold - EU member states voted to impose counter - tariff measures on US products worth 93 billion euros. If the EU - US trade negotiation fails by August 7, these measures will take effect automatically [7]. Silver - On July 24, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, escalating the pressure on Fed Chairman Powell. The possibility of a July interest rate cut remains uncertain [8]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at $841/ton, PX - N at $272/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,818 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is 4,680 yuan/ton. PTA social inventory is 3.6223 million tons, up 13,600 tons from the previous period [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, and cup lump is 50 Thai baht/kg. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a 13.2% increase year - on - year [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,130 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.33%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous day [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,468 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory decreased by 64,400 tons to 725,800 tons this week [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 723,800 tons, a 1.28% decrease. Factory inventory decreased by 2.15% [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by policy expectations, with the black - chain having a good atmosphere but facing high - valuation callback risks. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and many are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: The current market is policy - expected dominated. The black - chain has a good atmosphere, but high - valuation risks exist. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol开工 is expected to rise at a high level, downstream demand is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 2510. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and actual production release is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chemical Products - **PTA**: PTA device maintenance is average, with new production expectations. Downstream polyester factories are likely to cut production in July, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices may rise, and power costs are hard to reduce. However, port inventories are rising, and ore prices lack support. The supply - demand relationship may become looser. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price is weak in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. There is a short - term bullish expectation from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. It is recommended to wait and see and short at appropriate times [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian fundamentals are positive, and Malaysian production increased in the first 20 days of July. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are firm due to weather, and inventory has slightly decreased. Tire开工 has rebounded, but there is still pressure on the price. It may correct in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". There is an inventory - accumulation expectation with a large amount of soybeans arriving. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see [9]. Metals - **Silver**: The struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest - rate cuts continues. Before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting, silver is mainly bullish and may fluctuate at a high level [13]. - **Gold**: US tariff negotiations increase global economic pressure. The dollar's downward momentum weakens, and gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillation trend [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable and slightly bullish. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 1350. It is recommended to wait and see or short [15]. Construction Materials - **Rebar**: Steel prices are driven up by cost increases but face a callback risk in the second half of the week due to weak demand in the high - temperature off - season [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Before the July Politburo meeting, policies are expected to increase fiscal support, which is bearish for bonds. The main logic of the bond market is unclear, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [11]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: Market expectations of a short - term interest - rate decline are positive for short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [11]. Plastics - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply has pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for various commodities and financial products shows different trends due to a combination of supply - demand factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic conditions. Some products are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or uncertainty [1][2][4][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, causing concerns about demand slowdown and supply increase, leading to a weak and volatile market. High - level short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - **PTA**: With average device maintenance, expected new production, strong downstream polyester factory reduction expectations in July, and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force is also weak [4]. - **Rubber**: Weather disturbances in production areas keep raw material prices firm, and the demand side is improving. However, due to difficult inventory reduction, there is still upward pressure on prices in the short - term. A cautious short - long approach is recommended [5]. **Metals** - **Silver**: The conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate cuts creates uncertainty. The decline of the US dollar index drives gold up, and silver follows. A bullish outlook is maintained before the end - of - July interest rate meeting [8]. - **Gold**: US trade negotiations with other countries increase global economic downward pressure and volatility in tariffs, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold. Attention should be paid to the US dollar - gold seesaw effect [8]. **Industrial Goods** - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to increase, and downstream replenishment is active. With the fermentation of anti - involution policy expectations, the short - term futures market is strong. The reference support level for the 2509 contract is 980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for silicon iron is resilient. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. **Agricultural Products** - Not covered in the provided content. **Financial Products** - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The capital market becomes more liquid, and short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Policy support for infrastructure construction is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which is negative for the bond market. The main logic of the bond market is the stock - bond seesaw [6].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are diverse. For example, coke and steel prices may be strong in the short - term, while asphalt may be weak, and some commodities like PX and iron ore are expected to be in a high - level oscillation state. For financial products, the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as infrastructure investment and the stock - bond seesaw effect, and precious metals like gold are influenced by tariff and trade factors [2][3][5]. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Coke**: On July 21, the market price was strong. Mainstream market coke prices planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton from July 22. With smooth shipments, low inventories at coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and high iron - water production at steel mills, coke is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. - **Steel (Thread Steel)**: On July 21, domestic steel prices rose significantly. With improved steel mill benefits, increased blast - furnace iron - water production, and rising coking coal prices, but considering coal production resumption and weak downstream demand in the off - season, steel prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are rising, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level, and port inventories may decline slightly. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Silver**: There is a struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest rate cuts. With the dollar index falling, silver follows gold and is expected to be bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting [10]. - **Gold**: Due to tariff fluctuations, possible EU - US trade frictions, and a falling dollar index, gold prices are rising. Attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [12]. - **Alkali (Soda Ash)**: The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward oscillation. With increased production and inventory, stable float - glass production, and falling glass inventory, the soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an upper pressure at 1330 [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Iran will hold nuclear negotiations, and the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. The impact on supply is expected to be small. Oil prices are in a multi - empty stalemate, with OPEC+ maintaining an increase in production but limited actual supply growth. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: Domestic asphalt production has increased, with inventory rising and demand weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices, expected high - level increase in domestic methanol production, weak downstream demand, and possible port inventory accumulation, the methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 2390 [12]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On July 21, the pork price rose. With some areas' price support and increasing second - fattening, but weak terminal demand, short - term prices will oscillate. Short - term long trading is recommended, and farmers can choose to hedge [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of major oils has increased. With the digestion of positive news and weak demand, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased. With sufficient downstream inventory, prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8]. Chemicals - **PX**: The supply of PX has changed slightly, with weak demand support and limited oil - price support. It is expected to oscillate, with some pressure on spot prices but cost - side support [6]. - **Polypropylene**: With falling production, sufficient supply, and stable inventory, under policy support, the PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 7070 [10]. Bonds - **Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Infrastructure investment increases economic expectations, which is negative for the bond market. Whether the ten - year Treasury bond can break through the high - level oscillation range needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July and the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's net investment, the tight money situation has improved. Short - term bond prices are expected to rise more strongly than long - term bonds, but the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodities**: Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be bullish (e.g., short - term coal, iron ore), some bearish or lack upward momentum (e.g., plastic), and others are expected to oscillate (e.g., crude oil, glass, methanol) [1][2][4][5][6][10][11] - **Livestock**: The short - term pig price is expected to be slightly stronger, and short - term long trading is recommended [8] - **Agricultural Products**: For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] - **Bonds**: The long - term bond market is facing a critical choice, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum [12] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The EU approved sanctions on Russia, and the US drilling rig count decreased. OPEC+ maintains an increase stance, but actual supply growth is limited. Short - term observation is recommended [6] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the price may be supported by the peak power generation season in the Middle East, showing a tight supply - demand balance. An oscillation strategy is recommended [8] Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, port arrivals increased, and steel mill profitability and molten iron production increased. The price is expected to be strong in oscillations [5] - **Steel**: The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by policies, the short - term market is expected to be strong in oscillations [4] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, there is uncertainty. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] Chemicals - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to increase, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides some support. The L09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase, and demand is expected to be weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - **PTA (Bottle Chip)**: Supply is decreasing, but downstream inventory - building willingness is low. An oscillation strategy is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of float glass enterprises is stable, terminal demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The glass 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed exports increased, but its addition ratio in feed is low. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9] - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian palm oil production is expected to decrease, and it is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] Livestock - **Pig**: Pig prices rose slightly on weekends. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long trading is recommended. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [8] Bonds - **Long - term Bonds**: Bank - to - bank regulation is strengthening, and there are uncertainties in the long - term bond market. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [12] - **Short - term Bonds**: The short - term interest rate is expected to decline, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the direction choice near the 60 - day moving average [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, trading suggestions, and factors influencing supply and demand. [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Currently in a multi - empty stalemate. OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance in the medium term, and there may be a supply surplus after the summer demand peak. Short - term: wait and see. [2] - **PTA**: PTA's operating rate has increased slightly, polyester inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has dragged down the spot price. With crude oil oscillating, short - term: wait and see. [9] - **Methanol**: The cost of coal is expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be weak. The port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2370. Suggestion: wait and see. [9] Metals - **Iron Ore**: The recent anti - involution policy has boosted the black market sentiment, and the supply of steel is expected to shrink. The fundamentals of iron ore have not shown obvious signs of weakening in the off - season. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Suggestion: buy on dips. [4] - **Steel Rebar**: In the short term, the rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly accumulating but still at a low level. The market has insufficient contradictions and driving forces. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate. [5] - **Silver**: The growth of US retail sales and the decrease in initial jobless claims indicate strong economic resilience in the US. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. [14] - **Gold**: Although US economic data is strong, the US dollar has limited upward momentum. If the US dollar falls, gold may rebound, but the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. [15] Agricultural Products - **Coke**: Coking coal prices continue to rise, and there is a strong expectation of a second price increase. Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [2] - **Pig**: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to decline, with a temporary oversupply situation. However, there is strong macro - bullish sentiment. Suggestion: trade within a range. [6] - **Palm Oil**: Supported by import costs, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the proportion of rapeseed meal in feed formulations is low. Suggestion: buy on dips. [7] Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Second - quarter economic data exceeded expectations, and foreign institutions raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is bearish for the bond market. However, the recent stock market correction is bullish for bonds. The bond market is at a critical juncture near the 60 - day moving average. [12] - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The decline in money market interest rates is bullish for short - term bonds. The upward momentum of short - term bonds may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [14] - **Rubber**: There are still weather disturbances on the supply side, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has rebounded on the demand side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate strongly, but the demand has not significantly improved. [15] - **Polypropylene**: The supply is still abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The demand side has weak purchasing enthusiasm. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 7055. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [11] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass market has stable production and decreasing inventory, but the demand support is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1250. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]