姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market's supply - demand fundamentals are improving with increased demand in the March construction season, slower supply expansion, and larger inventory declines. Steel prices are in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. - For crude oil, supply - side factors drive the market, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [1]. - The outlook for iron ore prices is cautiously optimistic due to improved market sentiment and demand, but limited fundamental improvement and supply constraints [3]. - For PTA, a buy - on - dips strategy is suggested, considering PX's expected price support and PTA's device maintenance and downstream demand [4]. - For live pigs, short - term long positions in near - month contracts and long - term long positions in LH2509 contracts are recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and a sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [6]. - Treasury bonds may face a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be monitored [6]. - Precious metals are in an upward - trending oscillation due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [8]. - Methanol's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see or short - term long - position strategy is recommended [8]. - Soda ash's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended until it stabilizes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Steel - As of March 27, weekly thread production was 227.43 million tons, up 1.22 million tons (0.54%) from last week; factory inventory was 209.53 million tons, down 9.51 million tons (4.34%); social inventory was 609.58 million tons, down 8.38 million tons (1.36%); apparent demand was 245.32 million tons, up 2.33 million tons (0.96%) [1]. Crude Oil - The IEA predicts that global daily oil demand will increase by 830,000 barrels in 2024, less than the 2.1 million barrels per day increase in 2023. As of the week of March 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000 [1]. Iron Ore - From March 17 - 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 26.396 billion tons, a decrease of 3.554 billion tons from the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 25.106 billion tons, a decrease of 3.658 billion tons; at six northern ports, it was 12.407 billion tons, a decrease of 1.907 billion tons [3]. PTA - PXCFR is currently at $837 per ton, PX - N is $202 per ton; East China PTA is at 4,900 yuan per ton, and PTA's cash - flow cost is 4,741 yuan per ton. PTA's social inventory is 4.7576 billion tons, a decrease of 648,000 tons from the previous period; PTA's capacity utilization rate is 80.48%, and polyester's comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 91.24% [4]. Live Pigs - On March 27, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.11, up 0.01 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.17, up 0.02 points. As of 14:00, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 20.74 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil product exports in January were 1.96 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons in the same period last year and 2.06 million tons last month. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton [6]. Treasury Bonds - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [6]. Gold - Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars has led to opposition from multiple countries and regions, increasing risk - aversion sentiment [7][8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,687 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton; methanol's capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a 0.79% weekly decrease; the 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol device of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a 0.73% weekly decrease; China's methanol port sample inventory is 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons; the sample production enterprise inventory is 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons; the sample enterprise's pending orders are 236,200 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,509 yuan per ton, with stable prices; weekly soda ash production is 690,200 tons, a 5.81% increase from the previous day; the maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yantai and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored; the 1.1 - million - ton/year new production capacity of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.63 million tons, a 3.42% decrease; the operating rate of float glass is 75.42%, a 0.34% weekly decrease; the average price of national float glass is 1,266 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 67.012 million heavy boxes, a 3.52% decrease [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, etc., and offers trading suggestions based on market conditions and influencing factors [2][3]. Group 3: Commodity Summaries Gold - Concerns about the global trade war have weakened the liquidity of the US stock market. The liquidity indicators of Deutsche Bank and Citigroup based on the S&P 500 stock index futures are at a two - year low. The global tariff war has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The US stocks lack upward momentum, and the rebound of the US dollar index is limited. The Fed is still observing the need for further interest rate cuts. Precious metals have limited short - term upward momentum but are expected to be bullish in the medium term [2]. Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.341 million barrels to 434 million barrels in the week ending March 21, a decrease of 0.76%. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.446 million barrels. The US domestic crude oil production increased by 0.1 million barrels to 13.574 million barrels per day. The market's concern about global supply shortages has intensified due to the decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories and the US threat to impose tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude oil. International oil prices have risen by 1%. Supply - side factors are affecting the market, and geopolitics and sanctions are the main driving forces for the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 螺纹钢 - On March 26, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the price of building materials by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The fundamentals have improved during the construction season, and steel prices have been strong recently. However, the slow recovery of demand remains unchanged, especially the poor sales of high - priced resources. Traders mainly focus on quick - in and quick - out operations, and speculative demand is average. In the short term, the upward trend of steel prices is weakening, and they may adjust slightly [5]. 焦煤 - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country was 61.99%, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous period. The daily average output was 522,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons. The raw coal inventory was 2.7149 million tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons. The clean coal inventory was 2.1392 million tons, a decrease of 149,500 tons. Terminal hot metal production has continued to rise, demand has improved, and after 11 consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, the price has dropped to a multi - year low. Some coal mines have reached the production cost line, some speculative demand has been released, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has also improved. However, there is still a lack of continuous upward driving force. It is expected that the coal - coke market will remain stable in the short term [5]. 国债 - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders had a video call, exchanging views on important issues in the bilateral economic and trade field. The negative impact of tariffs may gradually appear, and the risk - aversion sentiment has boosted the bond market rebound. There are still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the market, and the market may return to the economic fundamentals. With the continuous issuance of bonds, the capital side remains tight, which still puts pressure on the bond market. The influencing factors of treasury bonds are more complex, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. 生猪 - On March 26, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.1, unchanged from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.15, also unchanged. As of 14:00 on March 26, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.3% from the previous day. Recently, the national pig price has remained stable. Farmers are selling pigs according to the market, small - scale farmers are waiting and watching, and some enterprises are controlling the supply. However, slaughtering enterprises are still cautious in purchasing, and demand is weak. The supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to go long on near - month contracts in the short term and long - term layout of the LH2509 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. 棕榈油 - From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of fresh palm fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the palm oil production increased by 5.10%. The export volume of palm oil products from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a decrease of 29,978 tons or 4.23% compared with the same period last month. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased while exports have decreased, and overseas consumption demand is weak, lacking positive news. In China, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been inverted. Recently, some ships have arrived at ports in some markets, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices for rigid demand. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [7]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is currently 837 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 202 US dollars/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,900 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4,741 yuan/ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 11 - 21 days. In the second quarter, the de - stocking expectation of PX is considerable, and the PX price is expected to be supported. For PTA, attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance of PTA plants such as Yisheng Hainan in April. Downstream, the inventory of weaving grey cloth is high, and the orders after the Spring Festival are poor. The operating rate of weaving is approaching the peak and is lower than last year. If orders remain weak, the operating rate may be reduced. Overall, maintenance supports the rebound of PTA, but the negative feedback of terminal demand affects the improvement of PTA processing fees and market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][9]. 甲醇 - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The methanol production capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. The 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a weekly decrease of 0.73%. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 773,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 26,300 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises is 327,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,600 tons. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 236,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,700 tons. The expected price of coal on the cost side is weak. The current profit of methanol is acceptable, and the domestic methanol production is expected to operate at a high level. Downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to decrease. The main storage areas in Jiangsu had good提货 under the support of trans - shipment and downstream shipments along the Yangtze River. The auction of inland methanol enterprises was acceptable. The basis of the port methanol market is weakly stable, and the negotiation and trading volume is average. It is expected that the methanol 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,560 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [8]. 纯碱 - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country is 1,509 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The operating rate of soda ash is 85.3%, unchanged from the previous day. The maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yanhu and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored. The new production capacity of 1.1 million tons/year of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is 75.76%, a weekly decrease of 0.34%. The average price of float glass in the country is 1,266 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country is 69.46 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is relatively stable, and the factory shipments in the Shahe market are generally good, but the market is still tepid. Downstream buyers are purchasing for rigid demand. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with supply hovering at a high level, new orders being average, and downstream demand being average, mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected that the soda ash 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,420 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [10].

重点品种： 今 日 早 评 【短评-原油】美国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年3月21 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少460万桶；同期美国汽油库存减 少330万桶；馏分油库存减少130万桶。根据俄罗斯克里姆林宫 网站25日公布的通报，俄美会谈主要成果包括五项：俄美双方 同意确保落实黑海港口农产品外运协议、美国推动恢复俄罗斯 农产品和化肥向世界市场出口准入、俄美为停止打击俄罗斯和 乌克兰能源设施制定措施、俄美欢迎第三方就落实能源和海事 协议开展斡旋、俄美将继续致力于实现持久和平。评：地缘和 制裁是前期原油反弹的主要动力。隔夜有关俄乌战争谈判缓解 了石油供应的压力，经济衰退及需求疲弱的风险也暂时退场不 过并未消除，4月份随着欧佩克+逐步退出自愿减产的执行及特 朗普关税举措可能会再次冲击市场。短线交易为佳。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1510元/吨，价格较 稳；纯碱开工85.3%，环比上日+2.8%；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯碱厂家总库存168.78万吨，环比下降 2.73%；浮法玻璃开工率75.76%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报841美元/吨，PX-N205美元/吨； 华东PTA报4830元/吨，PTA现金流成本为4752元/吨。PTA负荷提 升至79.3%，处于历年同期中性水平。本周装置变动较多，恒力 3线220万吨、仪化300万吨恢复运行三房巷120万吨重启中，逸 盛大化375万吨按计划检修。评：随着PX正式进入集中检修季， 近期PX负荷逐步下滑，二季度PX整体去库预期可观；叠加目前 PX整体估值偏低，预计PX价格支撑逐步转强。PTA方面，本周三 套检修装置复工，PTA负荷提升至中位数水平，关注后续4月逸 盛海南等PTA装置检修兑现情况，下游看，织造坯布库存偏高叠 加年后接单较差，织造开机趋于见顶，整体不如去年；如果订 单持续疲弱，不排除开机可能会下调。整体上，终端需求负反 馈影响PTA加工费改善效果及心态，当前PTA反弹空间仍依赖原 油。逢低做多思路。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1505元/吨，下降13元 /吨；纯碱开工82.49%，开工提升；金山、江苏井神检修结束， 盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；江苏德邦60万吨/年、连云港碱业 110万吨/年新产能预期一季度投产 ...