1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is facing weak demand during the peak season, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. If there are no significant positive policies, steel prices may continue to operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. Market demand increased at the beginning of the week due to positive expectations and coke price hike expectations, but terminal demand was weak in the second half of the week. As the holiday approached, fear of high prices increased, and merchants mainly focused on reducing inventory. As of September 26, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the financial regulatory chief said that "whitelist" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan; the CSRC chairman mentioned that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the SAFE chief said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits and loans at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's relevant measures on September 25, which involve various product categories including steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that measures would be taken to expand market consumption in the auto industry and improve the management system [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, with the increase narrowing [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Sunday this week was 105,500 tons, lower than last week's 106,500 tons. In the short term, as the National Day holiday approaches, pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and there is pressure for rebar to accumulate inventory during the peak season after the holiday [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - After the pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the market is worried about weak demand after the holiday and faces inventory reduction pressure. Without major positive policies, steel prices may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to risk control during the long holiday [26]. - From the disk perspective, the black series generally declined. The main contract of coking coal fell nearly 4%, coke fell 2.73%, rebar and iron ore fell more than 1%, and hot - rolled coil fell the least at 0.87%. Overall, positions were reduced. The main rebar 01 contract closed at 3,099, down 40 points, with a position of 1.963 million lots, a reduction of 12,500 lots [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see. The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, with Q4 PTA maintenance capacity slightly exceeding market expectations. Although polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly [2][16]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4608, the highest was 4688, the lowest was 4532, and the closing price was 4646, with a weekly increase of 42 or 0.91% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end, with only one 3 - million - ton new capacity plan in Yulongdao in 2024 and no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to August 2025, domestic PX output was 24.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; from January to May 2025, domestic PX imports were 5.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. - Asian PX device maintenance in 2025 was still concentrated in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Fuhai Chuang and Dongying United carried out maintenance as scheduled, while Tianjin Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua postponed it, and Daxie planned to increase the load. The average domestic PX operating rate in the third quarter was 83.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the average Asian PX operating rate was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The average PXN in the third quarter was $252/ton, an increase of $19/ton compared with the second quarter. Currently, PXN has dropped to around $207/ton. - In the fourth quarter, there are not many PX device maintenance plans in Asia. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou in the Chinese mainland, and FCFC in Taiwan, China have device maintenance plans. It is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure [5][6]. 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to August 2025, domestic PTA output was 48.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. As of now, the domestic PTA capacity is as high as 91.715 million tons/year, with a total of 6.6 million tons/year of new PTA capacity commissioned this year, a capacity growth rate of 7.8%. There is still a 3 - million - ton/year new device of Xin凤鸣 to be commissioned in Q4. - Due to low processing fees, the maintenance loss of industry devices in Q3 increased. The PTA processing fee in the third quarter remained at a low level, with an average of 189 yuan/ton. The continuous low processing fees have led to an increase in the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises. The total PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is 15.5 million tons/year, slightly more than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, Ineos, Dushan Energy, Hengli, Energy Investment, Xin凤鸣, etc. have maintenance plans, and the commissioning of Dushan Energy's new device is postponed. It is expected that the room for PTA load increase in Q4 is limited [7]. - This week, domestic PTA output was 1.4038 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons from last week and an increase of 29,500 tons from the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. This week, Fuhai Chuang restarted, South China devices reduced the load, and Ineos stopped due to weather reasons, resulting in domestic supply being weaker than expected and a slight decrease in domestic overall output this cycle [8]. 2.3 Inflection Point in Polyester Start - up - From January to August 2025, domestic polyester output was 52.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 8.218 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester output), a year - on - year increase of 18%. - In the third quarter, the polyester load increased slightly month - on - month, with an average load of 89.3%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the second quarter, mainly dragged down by bottle - chip production cuts. This week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry was 1.5418 million tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. - It is expected that the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry next week will be slightly less than 1.53 million tons. Due to the large - scale shutdown of the Huaxin device and the time required for the load increase of the Henghai device after commissioning, it is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will decline slightly next week. - Under the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the terminal load gradually recovered. As of the end of September, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing recovered to 81%, 70%, and 76% respectively, lower than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, although the polyester load increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season of demand [13][14]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, and the PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is slightly more than market expectations. Although the polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Industry Investment Rating - The report did not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2511 opened at 485 for the week, reached a high of 493, a low of 471, and closed at 491, with a weekly increase of 4.3 or 0.88% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Keeps the Stance of Increasing Production - In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July. OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.95 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, and Iraq increased their production, while Nigeria and Iran decreased theirs [5]. - Non - OPEC countries in the OPEC+ alliance had a production of 14.452 million barrels per day in August 2025, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Considering the production increase plan in August 2025, the actual production of non - OPEC countries was lower than the target, mainly due to the shortfalls in Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Russia [5]. - OPEC+ core eight countries decided to increase production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day starting from October. The production decision for November will be made at the next meeting on October 5. The actual supply flowing into the market may be much lower than the nominal increase quota [6]. - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day starting from October. The French President's statement about the resumption of UN sanctions on Iran has raised concerns about the stability of crude oil supply [6]. 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production was adjusted to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day). In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day [9]. - In August 2025, Russia's oil and oil product exports decreased by 1% to 7.26 million barrels per day, and export revenue decreased by 6% to about $13.51 billion. As of the week of September 14, Russia's daily average seaborne crude oil exports decreased by 934,000 barrels [9]. - Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched about 27 attacks on Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 11% - 14%. As of September 25, 21 Russian federal subjects had fuel shortages and implemented rationing. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current ban on gasoline exports [10]. 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. As of the week of September 26, 2025, the number of active rigs was 424, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 179, an increase of 5 compared to the previous week [11]. - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in supply from OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustment will occur later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [11]. 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [18]. 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels [19]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 820.712 million barrels, a decrease of 380,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels [19]. 2.6 Consumption: Weakening Marginal Demand - The IEA raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and kept the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day [24]. - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, global oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 [24]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [24]. 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee Strengthened Slightly - As of July 25, the US refined oil processing fee was $350 per ton, while the Asian refinery processing fee was $174 per ton. In the week of September 19, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton compared to the previous week, and the profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [26]. 2.8 Refinery Utilization Rate at a Low Level - In July, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.42%, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%, and the European refinery utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 4.46%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. - As of September 25, 2025, the utilization rate of major refineries in China was 80.27%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous week. As of September 24, 2025, the utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 58.28%, a 0.45% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the spot pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side still has sufficient pig sources, but the slaughter rhythm of farms may slow down slightly due to the festive atmosphere. The demand side will see further improvement in downstream stocking enthusiasm with the arrival of the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts are expected to continuously improve, with consumption's supporting effect on meat prices gradually strengthening. - In the short - term, the futures market is still restricted by supply pressure, but the boost from festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the overall price level slightly increasing. The market supply - demand pattern will adjust towards "supply - demand approaching balance". It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see in operation. [2][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Price Market Review The report mentions a chart of pig futures and spot prices (yuan/ton), but no specific content about the review is provided. [4] 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts of the monthly trend of the number of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend of the average weight of commercial pigs slaughtered nationwide (in kilograms), and the weight - based structure of commercial pig inventory (in %), but no specific analysis content is given. [5][6][9] 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis The report contains charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises (in %), but no specific demand analysis content is provided. [12][15] 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis The report shows charts of self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (yuan/head) and purchased piglet breeding profit (yuan/head), but no specific cost - profit analysis content is given. [17][19] 3.5 Market Outlook - Spot market: In the short - term, the pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side has sufficient pig sources, but the farm's slaughter rhythm may slow down during festivals. The demand side will see increased stocking enthusiasm with the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts will improve, strengthening the consumption's support for meat prices. - Futures market: In the short - term, it is restricted by supply pressure, but festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the price level rising slightly. The supply - demand pattern will adjust towards balance. It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see. [2][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, while the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market generally continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal with the same trend. After the seventh round of price increase was implemented, the eighth round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction after the end of military parade production restrictions. The spot quotation was stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. In the short - term, the market sentiment drive is greater than the fundamental support. Policy news may still cause disturbances. The price of coking coal is expected to remain volatile [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal futures price fluctuated greatly, with the futures market showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, and the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal. After the seventh - round price increase was implemented, the eighth - round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first - round price reduction, with the spot quotation being stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor said that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the head of the financial regulatory agency said that the "white - list" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing constructions; the CSRC chairman said that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the head of the SAFE said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexican measures on September 25, which involve products such as automobiles and parts, textiles, and steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that a new round of automobile industry stable - growth plan would be implemented, and preferential tax policies for new - energy vehicles would be optimized [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, a 42.8% increase from the beginning of the year, and a 15.9% increase from the same period last year [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the price of coking coal rose, increasing the coking enterprises' production costs and narrowing profit margins. With the approaching of holidays, downstream replenishment demand was released [2]. - On the demand side, the overall steel mill operation remained at a high level. The rigid demand for coke increased with the approaching of holidays, but the terminal consumption was average, and steel products were accumulating inventory, so the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. The price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and new macro - level changes [29]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profit, stay on the sidelines [30].

Group 1: Metals Gold - Trump's new tariffs and Fed rate cuts boost gold. Short - term, it's still bullish but may fluctuate during holidays [1] Silver - US economic data and Trump's tariffs increase Fed rate - cut uncertainty. Silver is short - term bullish with holiday risks [7] Iron Ore - Overseas shipments fall, arrival increases. Short - term price will fluctuate due to demand and capital factors [5] Rebar - Seasonal demand improves but inventory is high. Policy may support, so short - term price is under pressure [4] Copper (Not mentioned in the text) Aluminum (Not mentioned in the text) Group 2: Energy Crude Oil - Attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential sanctions support prices. Supply surplus remains. Suggest to wait and see [11] Natural Gas (Not mentioned in the text) Coal - Coke production drops slightly, but downstream procurement is active. Coal price will be stable before the holiday [5] Group 3: Chemicals Methanol - High domestic production, rising demand, and inventory decrease. Short - term, 01 contract may fluctuate weakly [2] Plastic - LLDPE price rises slightly, production drops, and inventory decreases. Demand improves. Short - term price will fluctuate [10] PVC (Not mentioned in the text) PTA (Not mentioned in the text) MEG (Not mentioned in the text) Styrene (Not mentioned in the text) Rubber - Supply may increase, downstream replenishment is mostly done. Short - term, price will fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - Supply increases, demand is affected by rain. Price will maintain a range - bound movement [13] Soda Ash - Supply is high, demand is average. 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term [9] Group 4: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - Affected by pre - holiday sentiment, it will mainly fluctuate strongly. Track import/export and inventory [6] Soybean - Domestic supply increases, demand is waiting for new grain. Short - term, it will be under pressure [6] Corn (Not mentioned in the text) Wheat (Not mentioned in the text) Sugar (Not mentioned in the text) Cotton (Not mentioned in the text) Live Pig - Supply exceeds demand, price is weak. Short - term, bounce space is limited [7] Group 5: Financial Products Treasury Bonds - Monetary policy is loose, real - estate policy may change. Long - term, it may be bearish for bonds [8] Stock Index Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Interest Rate Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Foreign Exchange Futures (Not mentioned in the text)

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - For rebar, considering the current "Golden September and Silver October" period, with upstream coal - steel disputes intensifying, iron - water production rising, and the co - existence of weak real estate reality and policy expectations, in the context of relatively low valuation, the possibility of a sharp short - term decline in fundamentals is low. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - For crude oil, with Russia extending export bans on diesel and gasoline and geopolitical disturbances, there is a supply surplus pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For live pigs, as the end of the month approaches, the price shows signs of stopping the decline. Short - term long positions can be attempted, but the upside space is limited [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policy changes [5]. - For palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors such as increased exports and reduced production in Malaysia [6]. - For ferrosilicon, the decline space in the peak season is limited, but there is downward pressure on prices after the peak season [6]. - For coking coal, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations before the National Day [7]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For short - term treasury bonds, there are more bearish factors, but it may still fluctuate in the medium term [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate more, but the short - term upside space is limited [9]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a fluctuating view [9]. - For gold, the short - term upward momentum is not strong [10]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [11]. - For polypropylene, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long [12]. Summary by Commodity Rebar - As of the week of September 25, production was 206.46 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week; factory inventory was 164.41 million tons, down 0.4%; social inventory was 471.89 million tons, down 2.75%; apparent demand was 220.44 million tons, up 4.96% [1]. Crude Oil - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day in 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day in 2050. Russia will extend export bans on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year. Its crude oil processing volume decreased to about 4.9 million barrels per day in September [2]. Live Pigs - On September 25, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 19.44 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; the price of eggs was 8.48 yuan/kg, down 0.1% [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 38th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions was 57.04 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased 12.9% compared to the same period last month; according to Amspec, it increased 11.3% [6]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, and the daily output was 16,150 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week [6]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, up 1.8% month - on - month; the daily output of raw coal was 1.94 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.587 million tons, down 113,000 tons [7]. PTA - The social inventory of PTA was 3.2851 million tons, down 47,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 75.65%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester was around 86.68% [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. For example, the 1 - day weighted average rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 3.76BP to 1.4749% [8]. Silver - The US GDP in the second quarter was revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [9]. Rubber - In Thailand, the price of raw material glue was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 51.05 Thai baht/kg. The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products [9]. Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,252 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The national weekly capacity utilization rate was 82.53%, up 2.62%. The port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,283 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, up 4.18%. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, down 5.93% [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6,761 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate was 76.06%, down 0.99%. The commercial inventory decreased by 26,700 tons [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The overall commodities market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing each commodity. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of shock, while others are expected to show a certain upward or downward trend. - **Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and trade agreements, like the Indonesia - EU economic partnership agreement, have significant impacts on the market. Macroeconomic policies, such as the central bank's MLF operations, also affect the financial market. 3. Summary by Commodity **Alkali** - **Market Conditions**: The national mainstream price of heavy - alkali is 1,283 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.57 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Total inventory is 175.56 tons, a 2.33% weekly decline. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, remaining stable weekly. - **Outlook**: The float glass market has stable start - up and slightly decreasing inventory, with weak demand. The domestic alkali market price is stable with general downstream demand. The 01 contract of alkali is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,285. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [1]. **Gold** - **Market Conditions**: The US has imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are on the tariff exemption list since September 1. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical and tariff risks are increasing, which is beneficial for gold. However, the rising US dollar index exerts pressure on gold. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial for precious metals. Gold is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. **Crude Oil** - **Market Conditions**: As of September 19, the total US crude oil inventory decreased by 380,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels. Daily production increased by 19,000 barrels compared to the previous week. - **Outlook**: The continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the decline in US crude oil inventory have intensified supply concerns, causing overnight crude oil prices to rise. However, there is still pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. **Rubber** - **Market Conditions**: Thai raw material prices are mixed. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first eight months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 27%. Global light - vehicle sales in August increased by 4.1% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Typhoons in the producing areas have affected rubber tapping. Downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended, and inventory reduction is difficult. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. **PTA** - **Market Conditions**: The overall polyester market inventory is concentrated between 16 - 26 days. PTA maintenance devices are resuming, and the start - up rate is increasing. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. - **Outlook**: Polyester inventory is decreasing, and short - term demand has some support, but the expectation of new orders and load recovery is limited. PTA is expected to fluctuate [5]. **Live Pigs** - **Market Conditions**: On September 24, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% compared to the previous day. - **Outlook**: The national pig price showed mixed trends, with the Northeast region being stronger and some southern regions weaker. The breeding end has high pressure, and terminal demand has limited increase. Near the end of the month, the breeding end's price - holding sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to try short - term long with limited upside space [5]. **Soybeans** - **Market Conditions**: Brazil's ANEC has lowered the September soybean export forecast from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and the September soybean meal export forecast from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons. - **Outlook**: Imported soybeans are expected to rebound, and bean 2 is expected to fluctuate upward. Domestic soybeans are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, and bean 1 is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia and the EU have signed an economic partnership agreement, which will promote trade liberalization. - **Outlook**: The international export environment for Indonesian palm oil has improved, and the sales pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been relieved. Domestic demand is suppressed by price increases, but the inventory pressure of oil mills has been relieved. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [7]. **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds** - **Market Conditions**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. - **Outlook**: The central bank's monetary policy is oriented towards liquidity easing. The Fed's interest rate cut may have a negative impact on the bond market, and the operation of the bond market is more difficult [8]. **Methanol** - **Market Conditions**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.68%, and downstream capacity utilization increased by 2.2%. - **Outlook**: Domestic methanol start - up is decreasing from a high level, downstream demand is rising, and port inventory is decreasing. Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term, with support at 2,350. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [9]. **Silver** - **Market Conditions**: US new home sales in August were much higher than expected, and the inventory of new homes for sale reached the lowest level this year. - **Outlook**: New home sales data may boost US economic confidence, which is beneficial for silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. **Plastic** - **Market Conditions**: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. LLDPE weekly production increased by 3.21%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.93%. - **Outlook**: The price of LLDPE is weak, production enterprise inventory is decreasing, supply is sufficient, and downstream start - up rate is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,135. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is to provide short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities and financial products, including analysis of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Kuwait's crude oil production will increase to 2559000 barrels per day from October, and OPEC+ will increase production by 137000 barrels per day in October. The global crude oil supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to sell on rallies [1]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Due to typhoon - affected tapping and insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand after pre - holiday restocking, it should be treated with a neutral view [2]. Steel and Related Products - **Steel**: In the "Golden September", steel demand is slowly recovering. With appropriate production control by building material steel mills, the supply - demand relationship has slightly improved. Before the National Day, steel mills need to replenish stocks, and the cost supports steel prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is limited [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume fluctuates at a high level, and the arrival volume increases. Iron water production may rise, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Iron ore prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - **Coke**: After the second - round price cut, coking profits turn negative, and coke production slightly decreases. Iron water production increases, and the demand for coke is well - supported. The pre - holiday restocking of the middle and lower reaches provides demand support, and the spot price stabilizes. Attention should be paid to the iron water production in the peak season [5]. Livestock and Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price is weakly stable. The market's resistance to price drops increases, and the decline slows down. However, the pressure on farmers to sell remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, farmers' willingness to hold prices increases. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [6]. - **Soybean**: With the increase in the supply of new soybeans, the supply pressure in the market will increase. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and domestic soybean prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [7]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, palm oil production and exports in September decreased. The international palm oil market has high inventories, and the demand in India and China is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: As PX maintenance devices restart and short - process efficiency is good, the supply increases. PTA maintenance devices resume work, and the terminal recovery is limited. PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the overall supply is relatively loose. It should be treated with a weak - neutral view [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production decreases from a high level, downstream demand recovers, and imports are expected to remain high in September. Port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is relatively stable. Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases. The demand from the float glass industry is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - **Polypropylene**: Polypropylene production is relatively stable, new production capacity pressure is released, and the overall supply is abundant. Commercial inventory decreases, and demand is slowly improving. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [13]. Financial Products - **Treasury Bonds**: China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - centered approach. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bond market may be slightly positive, but the upward space is limited. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to gold. The independence of the Fed brings uncertainties. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards [14]. - **Silver**: Multiple Fed officials' speeches on interest rate cuts affect the market. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts promotes the rise of precious metals. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold on silver [14].