Group 1: Metals Gold - Trump's new tariffs and Fed rate cuts boost gold. Short - term, it's still bullish but may fluctuate during holidays [1] Silver - US economic data and Trump's tariffs increase Fed rate - cut uncertainty. Silver is short - term bullish with holiday risks [7] Iron Ore - Overseas shipments fall, arrival increases. Short - term price will fluctuate due to demand and capital factors [5] Rebar - Seasonal demand improves but inventory is high. Policy may support, so short - term price is under pressure [4] Copper (Not mentioned in the text) Aluminum (Not mentioned in the text) Group 2: Energy Crude Oil - Attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential sanctions support prices. Supply surplus remains. Suggest to wait and see [11] Natural Gas (Not mentioned in the text) Coal - Coke production drops slightly, but downstream procurement is active. Coal price will be stable before the holiday [5] Group 3: Chemicals Methanol - High domestic production, rising demand, and inventory decrease. Short - term, 01 contract may fluctuate weakly [2] Plastic - LLDPE price rises slightly, production drops, and inventory decreases. Demand improves. Short - term price will fluctuate [10] PVC (Not mentioned in the text) PTA (Not mentioned in the text) MEG (Not mentioned in the text) Styrene (Not mentioned in the text) Rubber - Supply may increase, downstream replenishment is mostly done. Short - term, price will fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - Supply increases, demand is affected by rain. Price will maintain a range - bound movement [13] Soda Ash - Supply is high, demand is average. 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term [9] Group 4: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - Affected by pre - holiday sentiment, it will mainly fluctuate strongly. Track import/export and inventory [6] Soybean - Domestic supply increases, demand is waiting for new grain. Short - term, it will be under pressure [6] Corn (Not mentioned in the text) Wheat (Not mentioned in the text) Sugar (Not mentioned in the text) Cotton (Not mentioned in the text) Live Pig - Supply exceeds demand, price is weak. Short - term, bounce space is limited [7] Group 5: Financial Products Treasury Bonds - Monetary policy is loose, real - estate policy may change. Long - term, it may be bearish for bonds [8] Stock Index Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Interest Rate Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Foreign Exchange Futures (Not mentioned in the text)

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - For rebar, considering the current "Golden September and Silver October" period, with upstream coal - steel disputes intensifying, iron - water production rising, and the co - existence of weak real estate reality and policy expectations, in the context of relatively low valuation, the possibility of a sharp short - term decline in fundamentals is low. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - For crude oil, with Russia extending export bans on diesel and gasoline and geopolitical disturbances, there is a supply surplus pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For live pigs, as the end of the month approaches, the price shows signs of stopping the decline. Short - term long positions can be attempted, but the upside space is limited [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policy changes [5]. - For palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors such as increased exports and reduced production in Malaysia [6]. - For ferrosilicon, the decline space in the peak season is limited, but there is downward pressure on prices after the peak season [6]. - For coking coal, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations before the National Day [7]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For short - term treasury bonds, there are more bearish factors, but it may still fluctuate in the medium term [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate more, but the short - term upside space is limited [9]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a fluctuating view [9]. - For gold, the short - term upward momentum is not strong [10]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [11]. - For polypropylene, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long [12]. Summary by Commodity Rebar - As of the week of September 25, production was 206.46 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week; factory inventory was 164.41 million tons, down 0.4%; social inventory was 471.89 million tons, down 2.75%; apparent demand was 220.44 million tons, up 4.96% [1]. Crude Oil - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day in 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day in 2050. Russia will extend export bans on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year. Its crude oil processing volume decreased to about 4.9 million barrels per day in September [2]. Live Pigs - On September 25, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 19.44 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; the price of eggs was 8.48 yuan/kg, down 0.1% [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 38th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions was 57.04 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased 12.9% compared to the same period last month; according to Amspec, it increased 11.3% [6]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, and the daily output was 16,150 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week [6]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, up 1.8% month - on - month; the daily output of raw coal was 1.94 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.587 million tons, down 113,000 tons [7]. PTA - The social inventory of PTA was 3.2851 million tons, down 47,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 75.65%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester was around 86.68% [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. For example, the 1 - day weighted average rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 3.76BP to 1.4749% [8]. Silver - The US GDP in the second quarter was revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [9]. Rubber - In Thailand, the price of raw material glue was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 51.05 Thai baht/kg. The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products [9]. Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,252 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The national weekly capacity utilization rate was 82.53%, up 2.62%. The port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,283 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, up 4.18%. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, down 5.93% [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6,761 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate was 76.06%, down 0.99%. The commercial inventory decreased by 26,700 tons [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The overall commodities market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing each commodity. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of shock, while others are expected to show a certain upward or downward trend. - **Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and trade agreements, like the Indonesia - EU economic partnership agreement, have significant impacts on the market. Macroeconomic policies, such as the central bank's MLF operations, also affect the financial market. 3. Summary by Commodity **Alkali** - **Market Conditions**: The national mainstream price of heavy - alkali is 1,283 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.57 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Total inventory is 175.56 tons, a 2.33% weekly decline. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, remaining stable weekly. - **Outlook**: The float glass market has stable start - up and slightly decreasing inventory, with weak demand. The domestic alkali market price is stable with general downstream demand. The 01 contract of alkali is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,285. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [1]. **Gold** - **Market Conditions**: The US has imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are on the tariff exemption list since September 1. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical and tariff risks are increasing, which is beneficial for gold. However, the rising US dollar index exerts pressure on gold. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial for precious metals. Gold is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. **Crude Oil** - **Market Conditions**: As of September 19, the total US crude oil inventory decreased by 380,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels. Daily production increased by 19,000 barrels compared to the previous week. - **Outlook**: The continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the decline in US crude oil inventory have intensified supply concerns, causing overnight crude oil prices to rise. However, there is still pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. **Rubber** - **Market Conditions**: Thai raw material prices are mixed. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first eight months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 27%. Global light - vehicle sales in August increased by 4.1% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Typhoons in the producing areas have affected rubber tapping. Downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended, and inventory reduction is difficult. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. **PTA** - **Market Conditions**: The overall polyester market inventory is concentrated between 16 - 26 days. PTA maintenance devices are resuming, and the start - up rate is increasing. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. - **Outlook**: Polyester inventory is decreasing, and short - term demand has some support, but the expectation of new orders and load recovery is limited. PTA is expected to fluctuate [5]. **Live Pigs** - **Market Conditions**: On September 24, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% compared to the previous day. - **Outlook**: The national pig price showed mixed trends, with the Northeast region being stronger and some southern regions weaker. The breeding end has high pressure, and terminal demand has limited increase. Near the end of the month, the breeding end's price - holding sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to try short - term long with limited upside space [5]. **Soybeans** - **Market Conditions**: Brazil's ANEC has lowered the September soybean export forecast from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and the September soybean meal export forecast from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons. - **Outlook**: Imported soybeans are expected to rebound, and bean 2 is expected to fluctuate upward. Domestic soybeans are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, and bean 1 is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia and the EU have signed an economic partnership agreement, which will promote trade liberalization. - **Outlook**: The international export environment for Indonesian palm oil has improved, and the sales pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been relieved. Domestic demand is suppressed by price increases, but the inventory pressure of oil mills has been relieved. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [7]. **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds** - **Market Conditions**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. - **Outlook**: The central bank's monetary policy is oriented towards liquidity easing. The Fed's interest rate cut may have a negative impact on the bond market, and the operation of the bond market is more difficult [8]. **Methanol** - **Market Conditions**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.68%, and downstream capacity utilization increased by 2.2%. - **Outlook**: Domestic methanol start - up is decreasing from a high level, downstream demand is rising, and port inventory is decreasing. Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term, with support at 2,350. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [9]. **Silver** - **Market Conditions**: US new home sales in August were much higher than expected, and the inventory of new homes for sale reached the lowest level this year. - **Outlook**: New home sales data may boost US economic confidence, which is beneficial for silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. **Plastic** - **Market Conditions**: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. LLDPE weekly production increased by 3.21%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.93%. - **Outlook**: The price of LLDPE is weak, production enterprise inventory is decreasing, supply is sufficient, and downstream start - up rate is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,135. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is to provide short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities and financial products, including analysis of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Kuwait's crude oil production will increase to 2559000 barrels per day from October, and OPEC+ will increase production by 137000 barrels per day in October. The global crude oil supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to sell on rallies [1]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Due to typhoon - affected tapping and insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand after pre - holiday restocking, it should be treated with a neutral view [2]. Steel and Related Products - **Steel**: In the "Golden September", steel demand is slowly recovering. With appropriate production control by building material steel mills, the supply - demand relationship has slightly improved. Before the National Day, steel mills need to replenish stocks, and the cost supports steel prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is limited [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume fluctuates at a high level, and the arrival volume increases. Iron water production may rise, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Iron ore prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - **Coke**: After the second - round price cut, coking profits turn negative, and coke production slightly decreases. Iron water production increases, and the demand for coke is well - supported. The pre - holiday restocking of the middle and lower reaches provides demand support, and the spot price stabilizes. Attention should be paid to the iron water production in the peak season [5]. Livestock and Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price is weakly stable. The market's resistance to price drops increases, and the decline slows down. However, the pressure on farmers to sell remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, farmers' willingness to hold prices increases. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [6]. - **Soybean**: With the increase in the supply of new soybeans, the supply pressure in the market will increase. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and domestic soybean prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [7]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, palm oil production and exports in September decreased. The international palm oil market has high inventories, and the demand in India and China is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: As PX maintenance devices restart and short - process efficiency is good, the supply increases. PTA maintenance devices resume work, and the terminal recovery is limited. PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the overall supply is relatively loose. It should be treated with a weak - neutral view [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production decreases from a high level, downstream demand recovers, and imports are expected to remain high in September. Port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is relatively stable. Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases. The demand from the float glass industry is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - **Polypropylene**: Polypropylene production is relatively stable, new production capacity pressure is released, and the overall supply is abundant. Commercial inventory decreases, and demand is slowly improving. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [13]. Financial Products - **Treasury Bonds**: China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - centered approach. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bond market may be slightly positive, but the upward space is limited. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to gold. The independence of the Fed brings uncertainties. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards [14]. - **Silver**: Multiple Fed officials' speeches on interest rate cuts affect the market. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts promotes the rise of precious metals. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold on silver [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts such as the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial hogs by weight (in %) [5][6][9]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report analyzes demand through charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage capacity ratio of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) [12][15]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report presents the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding (in yuan per head) through relevant charts [17][19]. 4. Market Outlook The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for steel is relatively strong, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - As of September 19, the average price of 20mm Grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,299 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton. This week, the prices of construction steel products fluctuated upward. Taking rebar as an example, the price increase in the East China market was relatively large, with a week-on-week increase of 40 - 50 yuan/ton. Macro positive expectations were realized this week, the small-sample social inventory decreased, steel mill profits continued to narrow, production decreased slightly, the market's fundamental contradictions eased, and raw material support remained [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Deputy Minister Li Chenggang stated on the evening of the 15th that China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue through cooperation, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [6]. - From January to August, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [6]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 347.83 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 2.81772 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% [6]. - The Federal Reserve announced at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, the first interest rate cut this year and a resumption of rate cuts after a nine-month hiatus. The Fed's latest dot plot predicts two more rate cuts this year (25 basis points each), one more than the June forecast [6]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7]. - In August, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [7]. - According to Jinshi Futures on September 18, this week, Mysteel's statistics showed that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.9%. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average production of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 217,000 tons [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,500 tons, higher than last week's 103,100 tons. As the month enters its second half, the market still expects a recovery in demand during the traditional peak season. In fact, due to improved weather, the demand for building materials has been gradually recovering [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supported by positive market expectations, steel mill production has decreased slightly, social inventory has started to decline, and raw material support remains. Overall, the market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [27]. - From the market perspective, the black series closed higher on Friday. Among them, the main contract of coking coal had the highest increase of 1.36%. The increases of iron ore, coke, and rebar were similar, while hot-rolled coil was the weakest. The main rebar contract closed at 3,172, up 23 points on the day, 25 points higher than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3,159, up 10 points from last week. The latest position was 1.97 million lots, a decrease of 30,000 lots from last Friday. The position shifted from increasing while prices declined last week to decreasing while prices rose this week, and the profit margins for both long and short positions were relatively limited. Next week, continue to monitor the rebound strength, with the upper resistance level at 3,208 and the support level around 3,140 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to be bullish with fluctuations [4] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals corrected to some extent. With the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market, and the timing is crucial. The US economy shows some resilience but still has significant downward pressure. The RMB exchange rate has limited impact on precious metals [2][3][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was less than market expectations, the dollar index rose sharply, and precious metals corrected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, another 50 basis points. Gold and silver may rise synchronously under the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, and the short - term fluctuations of gold also affect the rise of silver [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure. The US government requested the Supreme Court to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US initial jobless claims dropped, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined [12][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US September Michigan consumer confidence index hit a new low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose. The August ISM manufacturing index was below expectations, and the output index entered the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE inflation data were released. The initial jobless claims decreased, indicating increased downward pressure on the US economy [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US in Spain to discuss trade issues. Trump said he was ready to impose second - stage sanctions on Russia and would impose tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not move production to the US. Geopolitical tensions have increased [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US August non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, the unemployment rate rose, and the ISM manufacturing index was below expectations. The July service PMI hit a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is affected by production cuts, and the copper prices at home and abroad diverge. With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the dollar index may decline, and the RMB has an appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Most Fed officials believe that a 75 - basis - point rate cut this year is appropriate, and precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market. The Fed defines this rate cut as a defensive one [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The downstream replenishment demand is obvious, and the price of coking coal has risen [2][5]. - The supply of coal mines has increased slightly this week, but the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia. The resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream has increased significantly [2]. - Before the festival, inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. On Monday, mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke. The wet - quenched coke was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was lowered by 55 yuan/ton, which was the second round of price cuts. On Thursday, an individual coke enterprise in Inner Mongolia sent a letter to increase the price by 50/55 yuan/ton, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [2][5]. - After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The coking plants maintain the previous production rhythm, and the downstream replenishment demand is obvious. The price of coking coal has risen, with more price increases and fewer price decreases in auctions [2][5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - China and the United States have reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [7]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, with a growth rate decline of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a growth rate decline of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.9 percentage points [7]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points, and it is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year [7]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [8]. - In August, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [8]. - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 217,000 tons [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: This week, the coal mine production increased slightly, but the over - production inspection document in Inner Mongolia has once again triggered market concerns about coal mine production cuts, and the resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term [2]. - Demand: On the 15th, the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but the rapid rise in coal prices drove an individual coke enterprise in the Ordos market to increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on the 18th. Currently, mainstream coke enterprises have not raised prices, and steel mills have not responded. This week, the steel mill's hot - metal output continued to rise slightly, and the coke enterprises maintained high - level production. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that previously stopped or reduced production have resumed normal production, but some fat - coal mines in Inner Mongolia have stopped production due to over - production. The total output has increased slightly. Overall, the pre - festival inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited, and it is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to oscillate in the medium term due to the combination of supply - demand factors and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Economic recovery in September is a long - term negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market. The operation of the bond market is likely to face increased difficulty [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the accelerated pace of fiscal bond issuance and the tight balance of liquidity have a bearish impact on the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market into a continuous downward trend, but this logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, increasing the difficulty of market operation [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The second re - issuance of the fourth tranche of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has completed the tendering, with the overall issuance scale reaching 114.8 billion yuan and the issuance progress at 88.3% [10]. - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [10]. - Affected by the high base and food prices, China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month, down 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the increase has expanded for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [14]. - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars were up 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports were up 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14]. - The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tendering, and multi - price winning bids, with the operation time and scale determined according to liquidity management needs [13]. - Market expectations for the restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations are gradually rising [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity generally continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. The GDP in the second quarter was up 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations. The economic data in August shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and if counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long term [15]. 3.2 Policy Front - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The social financing stock reached 43.126 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap in August indicates strengthened economic activities [17]. 3.3 Capital Front - Since July 25, DR007 has been declining, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases suddenly [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Front - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this year and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [21]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital front, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing the supply and putting pressure on the liquidity of the inter - bank market. The tight balance of liquidity has increased the bearish factors for the bond market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, whether the risk appetite will continue to increase and whether the stock - bond seesaw will be bearish for the bond market need to be continuously observed. The combination of the stock - bond seesaw logic and loose liquidity may increase the difficulty of bond market operation [28].