Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, and the number of rate cuts within the year may be large, with the total rate cut amplitude potentially exceeding market expectations [2][28] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Gold may experience a sideways or slightly bearish sideways trend as the need for hedging weakens, while silver may strengthen further in the short - term, and a catch - up rally may occur [2][28] - Tracking US economic data to monitor when the precious metals market will start the interest - rate - cut expectation rally will be the focus in the future [3] - The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited and is not a key consideration [3][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The US dollar index has limited downward momentum. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may flow back to the US, supporting the US dollar. Gold's sideways nature may intensify, while silver is expected to show a sideways - bullish trend due to increased industrial demand [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, hitting a new high since November 2021 [12] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [15] - The US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed Chairman, and Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate [15] - Fed's Daly said that policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation [15] - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than expected, while the S&P Global Services PMI final value in July reached a new high since December 2024 [15][16][19] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that the economy remains resilient but with increasing downward pressure, and the market is trading around the September interest - rate - cut expectation [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose high tariffs on chips and semiconductors. European leaders issued a statement on the Ukraine peace issue [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts, and the price of copper shows a divergence between domestic and international markets [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although the depreciation pressure has increased, it has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The expectation of a September rate cut has increased significantly, and gold and silver may show a divergent trend in the short - term, with silver potentially strengthening [28]

棕榈油高位震荡偏强运行 摘 要： 行情展望： 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）数据显示：马来西亚7月 毛棕榈油产量为181.24万吨，环比增加7.09%；棕榈油进 口为6.10万吨，环比减少12.82%；棕榈油出口为130.91 万吨，环比增加3.82%；棕榈油期末库存量为211.33万吨， 环比增加4.02%。 即将进入消费旺季，叠加生柴需求预期的兑现，国内 美豆缺席抬升豆系价格重心等一系列因素下，市场对于四 季度的价格预期较高。因此强预期和弱现实的局面下 01 合约相对 09 合约走强。只是由于产地近月挺价意愿强 烈，且 8 月 1-5 日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比大幅下降， 一定程度上对 09 合约有支撑，因此 9-1 价差仍然维持 窄幅震荡。短期内预计棕榈油高位震荡运行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【201 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious contradictions, and the futures price is expected to rise easily and fall hard in the short term [1] - Gold is expected to experience a short - term further correction and show an oscillating and bearish trend [2] - The fundamentals of rebar are marginally weakening, but the futures price still has strong support before the parade [4] - The fundamentals of iron ore have limited bearish drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [5] - The bond market still has upward momentum in the short term, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [5] - For live pigs, short - term interval trading for the LH2509 contract or long - term layout of long positions for the LH2511 contract is recommended [6] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend, with silver in an upward trend [7] - The spot price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term [8] - The L2601 contract of LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10] Group 3: Summaries According to Short - Comments Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 74.03%, an increase of 0.34%; daily coke output is 65.10, an increase of 0.29; coke inventory is 69.73, a decrease of 3.89; total coking coal inventory is 987.92, a decrease of 4.81; coking coal available days are 11.4 days, a decrease of 0.11 days [1] - Supply is reduced due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" plan; the Ganqimaodu Port's daily average customs clearance is 1166 vehicles, remaining at a high level; downstream procurement has slowed down, but coal mine inventories continue to decline [1] Gold - The Trump administration will clarify the "misinformation" about gold tariffs; the short - term callback is expected, and it is oscillating and bearish in the long - term due to factors like the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points; steel mill profitability rate is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.62 tons [4] - Steel mill production restrictions are expected due to the approaching parade; typhoon impact has weakened, demand has recovered, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons; daily average port clearance volume is 321.85 tons, an increase of 19.14 tons; the number of ships at ports is 105, an increase of 15 [5] - Overseas mine shipments have decreased, but port arrivals have increased; steel enterprise profitability is at a high level, and short - term production reduction is less likely [5] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - A number of major foreign - funded projects are progressing steadily, and policies to attract foreign investment are being strengthened; exports are resilient, and counter - cyclical adjustment may be intensified in the second half of the year; liquidity is relatively loose, supporting the bond market [5] Live Pigs - As of August 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.29%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 31.43 yuan per head, a decrease of 12.74 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 186.91 yuan per head, a decrease of 15.56 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 413.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 9.05 yuan per head [6] - Farmers' price - holding sentiment has emerged after price drops, but terminal demand is weak, and there is no continuous upward momentum [6] Palm Oil - From August 1 to 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6] - As the main contract is approaching replacement, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened slightly, and consumption is mainly for rigid demand [6] Silver - On August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is 88.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11.6% [7] - The US dollar index has a short - term rebound demand, but the downward trend remains, which is beneficial to precious metals; silver is in an upward trend [7] Soybean Meal - Last week's average daily trading volume of soybean meal is 29.664 tons, with spot trading volume of 10.684 tons; this week's average daily trading volume is 51.198 tons, with spot trading volume of 7.092 tons [7] - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of lower near - term prices and higher long - term prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton; China's methanol port sample inventory is 92.55 tons, a weekly increase of 11.71 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 29.37 tons, a weekly decrease of 3.08 tons; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 24.08 tons, a weekly increase of 1.01 tons; methanol capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a weekly decrease of 3.55%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, a weekly increase of 0.85% [8] - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7321 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton; LLDPE weekly output is 30.04 tons, a weekly increase of 9.76%; production enterprise inventory is 18.06 tons, a weekly increase of 26.74%; oil - based daily production profit is - 178 yuan per ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.5% week - on - week [9] - LLDPE supply is expected to remain at a high level, downstream factory restocking is phased, and the market price is weak [9] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1347 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently; weekly soda ash output is 74.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%; soda ash manufacturer total inventory is 186.51 tons, a weekly increase of 3.86%; float glass operating rate is 75.19%, a weekly increase of 0.19%; the national average price of float glass is 1199 yuan per ton, a day - on - day decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6184.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [10] - Float glass production is stable, inventory has increased, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The change of Fed officials will strengthen the future loose - policy orientation, which is positive for gold, but the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative for safe - haven assets. The rise of gold price may be supported by central bank gold purchases, and its future trend needs further observation [1]. - The soda ash market is generally weak, with glass demand support being inadequate. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on a short - term basis [2]. - Iron ore supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on pullbacks [4]. - Coking coal fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions and can support the price, with the price expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - Rebar prices are supported by cost but restricted by weak demand. The market is in a fierce long - short game, and the price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. - The pig market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade the LH2509 contract in a range or go long on the LH2511 contract in the long - term, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price. Short - term long trading is recommended [8]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to the increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [8]. - The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The change of Fed officials and central bank gold purchases are positive factors, while the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative. The future trend needs further observation [1]. - **Silver**: The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut make silver fluctuate upward [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The market is weak, with glass demand support being insufficient. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on a short - term basis is an option [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level, with port inventory increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended [9]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is abundant, and the market faces shipment pressure. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [10]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to range - bound. Going long on pullbacks is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - **Rebar**: Cost supports the price, but demand is weak. The price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Different trading and hedging strategies are recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is advisable [7]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price, and short - term long trading is recommended [8]. Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal support its price in the short - term, with prices expected to fluctuate [1]. - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, with a low probability of exceeding the previous high and a slightly bearish mid - term outlook [1]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [3]. - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon is expected to be filled, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. - Rapeseed meal prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia has a bearish fundamental outlook, and investors are advised to wait and see [5]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soda ash prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [7]. - Silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term, and observation is advised [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 36.2%, a 1.19% week - on - week increase; the daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase; and the clean coal inventory is 2.881 million tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [1]. - After the fifth round of coke price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are further repaired, and the demand for coking coal remains [1]. Gold - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [1]. - The expectation of a September interest rate cut increases, the US dollar falls, and gold oscillates at a high level but lacks upward momentum [1]. Rebar - On August 6, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly, with the price of Tangshan Qian'an billets rising by 10 yuan to 3,090 yuan/ton, and 4 steel mills raising the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in coking coal futures stimulates the black futures and drives the steel price to stop falling and rebound [3]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 33.76%, a 0.43% week - on - week increase; the daily output is 14,925 tons, a 2.12% (310 - ton) increase [3]. - Steel output is high, but the ferrosilicon supply - demand gap is expected to be filled due to increased production [3]. Pig - On August 6, the national average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.7% to 20.67 yuan/kg, and the egg price decreased by 0.8% to 7.54 yuan/kg [4]. - The pig market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal - On August 6, the total transaction volume of rapeseed meal in major domestic oil mills was 2,000 tons, with different average prices in different regions [4]. - Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is declining, imports are low, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month, with a 19.32% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.39% increase in oil extraction rate [5]. - In July 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [5]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 78.22%, a 0.56% increase; the downstream average operating rate is 48.4%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease [6]. - Polypropylene supply is abundant, and commercial inventory is expected to remain high in the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,347 yuan/ton, showing a weakening trend; the weekly output is 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease; the total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly adjusted, with high - price resistance and tepid demand [7]. Silver - Fed official Daly signaled a possible interest rate cut, increasing the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - The US dollar index falls, and silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. Methanol - The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 925,500 tons, a 117,100 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a 30,800 - ton decrease; the order backlog is 240,800 tons, a 10,100 - ton increase [8]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - On August 7, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined at the beginning of the session [9]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply recovery and the increase in Mongolian coal imports still need time to materialize, and the de - stocking cycle of upstream coal mines continues. After the market sentiment fades, the futures price returns to a reasonable range. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market continued its volatile and upward trend this week, but the increase narrowed, mostly in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of coke increased continuously, with the fourth price increase implemented on the 28th, and the cumulative increase reached 200 - 220 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The central government emphasizes continued and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. The decision to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session in October to study the 15th Five - Year Plan is made. A new round of China - US economic and trade talks was held, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [6]. - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7]. - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous month, and the export price decreased by 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export price decreased by 10.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month, and the import price decreased by 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import price increased by 2.2% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Affected by factors such as over - production inspections, completion of monthly production tasks, and underground conditions in some areas this week, the daily output of raw coal decreased slightly. However, the overall demand for coking coal was relatively strong, and coal mines significantly reduced their inventories [2]. - Demand side: The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The fourth price increase of coke was implemented, and mainstream coking enterprises proposed a fifth price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. Coking and steel enterprises maintained a rigid demand for raw coal procurement under high production loads and stable inventory consumption. Future changes in the operation of coal mines, coking, and steel enterprises need to be monitored [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market outlook: The futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

非农大幅低于预期，贵金属震荡偏多 摘 要： 上周前半段在美国7月未降息及美国经济依然具有韧性的预期 下，美元指数大幅反弹，并施压贵金属。但是上周五的非农数据大 幅低于预期和失业率再次反弹，在两者共同作用下，美元指数大幅 走弱，并带动贵金属走强，其中黄金的走强大于白银，数据公布后 市场基本对 9 月降息完全定价，后续市场将围绕美国经济数据和降 息预期的强弱展开。黄金的走势需要关注美元指数的强弱，白银的 走势需要关注降息的强弱和美国经济数据，黄金、白银或走分化行 情，白银整体要强于黄金。 美国 7 月非农就业人数仅仅增加 7.3 万人，创 9 个月最低，远 不及预期的 11 万人。此外，前两个月的数据合计大幅下修 25.8 万。 7 月失业率小幅升至 4.2%。该数据公布后，特朗普再度"逼宫"美 联储主席鲍威尔，称现在必须大幅降低利率。若不降息，美联储理 事会应接手掌管，采取每个人都知道必须采取的行动。并下令解雇 劳工统计局局长。从前期公布的通胀数据来看，美国 6 月个人消费 支出即 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.6%，高于市场预期的 2.5%。5 月数 据经修正后为上涨 2.4%。核心 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 ...