今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克警告称，通胀正 在朝着令人不安的方向发展。他重申预计今年将降息一次，穆 迪下调美国评级可能对寻求借款的美国公司和家庭产生负面影 响。评：美联储面临各种问题，但是短期依然不改变其观点。 上周鲍威尔对美联储未来政策框架提出新的假设，美联储降息 问题将变得更加扑朔迷离。黄金将陷入高位震荡，关注黄金和 白银是否走分化行情。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报837美元/吨，PX-N272美元/吨； 华东PTA报5930元/吨，PTA现金流成本为4691元/吨。上周中海 油惠州装置重启推迟，中金以及浙石化计划外降负，亚洲及国 内PX负荷环比下降。其中亚洲PX负荷下降3.1%至67.5% ，国内 PX负荷下降4.5%至74.1%。评：PX供需预期偏紧，驱动偏强， PXN大幅修复，目前PXN扩大至274美元/吨附近。短期PTA在成本 支撑、检修去库等因素推动下，或延续偏强震荡态势。但需关 注宏观情绪反复及终端需求变化的潜在风险。中长期来看，随 着新产能释放，产能过剩压力渐显，价格上行空间或受限。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月20日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The cost - side coal price of methanol is expected to be weak, with high - level domestic methanol operations expected. The port methanol inventory may increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - The Fed's potential staff cuts and new policy assumptions make the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain. Gold will be in high - level oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, supply remains high while demand is expected to be weak, and the upstream coal mines still face inventory - accumulation pressure. The short - term futures performance is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The tariff reduction on iron ore brings unexpected positive news, and the ore price oscillates upward. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar strengthen this week. The export recovery expectation rises after China - US tariff negotiations. The rebar price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation [4]. - For live pigs, the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The short - term price is mainly in a weak adjustment [4]. - The domestic palm oil spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term price oscillates [5]. - The domestic soda ash market operates stably, and the soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The increase in money - market interest rates is negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bearishly in the medium term [7]. - The fundamentals are negative for silver, and it is expected to have a wide - range and slightly bearish oscillation in the medium term [8]. - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [8]. - Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak. A cautious short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [9]. - Although the PTA market is boosted by the China - US talks, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. Summaries by Product Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Methanol operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% week - on - week. Downstream total capacity utilization is 71.01%, down 0.48% week - on - week. Port inventory is 48.39 tons, down 7.8 tons week - on - week. Production enterprise inventory is 33.58 tons, up 3.19 tons week - on - week. Order backlog is 27.36 tons, up 3.58 tons week - on - week [1]. Gold - The Fed plans to cut staff by 10% in the next few years, and Powell proposed new assumptions about the Fed's future policy framework, making the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain [1]. Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.70%, up 0.26%. Daily coke output is 67.15, up 0.23. Coke inventory is 94.31, down 0.13. Coking coal inventory is 884.93, down 31.69. Coking coal available days are 9.9 days, down 0.39 days [3]. Iron Ore - National 45 - port imported iron ore inventory is 14166.09 tons, down 72.62 tons week - on - week. Daily port clearance volume is 323.89 tons, up 8.68 tons. Number of ships at port is 83, up 4 [3]. Rebar - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Daily hot - metal output is 244.77 tons, down 0.87 tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of May 16, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg, unchanged from last week. Weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.9%, down 0.62%. Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is 56.69 yuan/head, up 24.99 yuan/head. Self - breeding and self - fattening profit is 122.23 yuan/head, up 8.73 yuan/head. Piglet price is 511.9 yuan/head, up 6.2 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Weekly average trading volume is 626 tons, compared with 2071.5 tons in the previous week [5]. Soda Ash - National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1422.5 yuan/ton. Soda ash operating rate is 80.06%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 171.2 tons, up 0.63% week - on - week. Float - glass operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.22% week - on - week [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Money - market interest rates mostly rise. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repo has an increase: 1 - day term up 21.93 BP to 1.6313%, 7 - day term up 11.29 BP to 1.6374%, 14 - day term up 6.68 BP to 1.6363%, 1 - month term up 8.2 BP to 1.65% [7]. Silver - The US Treasury Secretary responded to Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, and the market's expectation of US economic growth weakens [8]. Crude Oil - As of May 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 473, down 1 from the previous week and 24 from the same period last year [8]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices continue to rise slightly. Hainan's rubber tapping is affected by rainfall. Tire operating rate rises month - on - month but drops significantly year - on - year [9]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at 854 dollars/ton, PX - N is 202 dollars/ton. East China PTA is reported at 5030 yuan/ton. PTA average operating rate is 77.07%, down 1.41% from last week. Polyester average load is 74.63%, down 17.37% from last week. Weaving factory load is 72.2%, unchanged from last week [9].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】2025年5月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材 库存量1606万吨，环比上一旬增加77万吨，增长5.0%；比年初 增加369万吨，增长29.8%；比上月同旬增加2万吨，增长0.1%； 比去年同旬减少22万吨，下降1.4%，比前年同旬减少155万吨， 下降8.8%。评：主力期价偏强震荡，量缩仓增。现阶段，得益 于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿价领涨产业链，短期 维持偏强运行，但鉴于需求趋于触顶，而供应维持高位，基本 面并未好转，上行驱动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至 现实端。 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-黄金 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】5月14日，山东港口进口铁矿价格较上一 工作日价格偏强运行，累计上涨10-15。目前PB粉主流在778- 780；超特粉主流在645附近；PB块主流在915附近。评：主力期 价持续上行，量仓扩大。现阶段，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水 修复逻辑支撑下矿价强势上涨，短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿 石需求趋于触顶，且供应维持高位，基本面仍易转弱，上行驱 动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至现实端。 【短评-原油】欧佩克月报显示，4月份，OPEC原油总产量 下降6.2万桶/日，至2671万桶/日，而"欧佩克+"国家总产量 下降10.6万桶/日，至4092万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦4月份石油产量 下降4.1万桶/日，至182万桶/日；欧佩克表示，2025年，欧佩 克+以外国家的供应量将增加约80万桶/日，低于上月预测的90 万桶/日；OPEC预计2025年石油需求将增加130万桶/日，2026年 增加128万桶/日，这一预测高于国际能源署估计的72.6万桶/ 日。评：欧佩克同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，远低于计划的13.8万桶/日，该组织对全球贸易形 势的发展持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily data of various futures and spot products, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spreads, and other related indicators, providing a comprehensive view of the market conditions on May 14, 2025. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel and Related Products - **Futures Prices**: All steel - related futures showed price increases, with iron ore having the highest increase rate (2.43% for iron ore main contract 2509) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also rose, except for coke and coking coal which remained unchanged [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, indicating the narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [6]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios changed, such as the narrowing of the 05 - 10 spreads for most products and the decrease in the steel mill's profit on the disk [7]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Futures Prices**: All energy and chemical futures prices increased, with methanol having the highest increase rate (3.68% for methanol main contract 2509) [11][16]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products rose, except for rubber which slightly decreased [12]. - **Basis**: The basis of different products showed different trends, with PTA's basis increasing significantly [12]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between main and far - month contracts of some products changed, and the PXN ratio increased [13]. Financial Futures - **Futures Prices**: Stock index futures prices increased, while bond futures prices decreased [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures and precious metals futures increased, except for silver which had a large increase in basis from a negative value [22]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different - term bond futures and the ratio of gold to silver index changed [23]. Agricultural Products - **Futures Prices**: Most agricultural product futures prices increased, with palm oil having the highest increase rate (2.17% for palm oil main contract) [26]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of different products had different trends [28]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, except for eggs which increased [28]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The ratios such as pig - grain ratio and oil - meal ratio changed slightly [29]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Basis**: The basis of non - ferrous metals showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [31]. - **Ratios**: The ratios between different non - ferrous metals changed slightly [32].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿 发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2 万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万 吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发运量625.2万吨，环比减少 146.0万吨。评：本周澳巴发运环比下降，到港量同步下滑，整 体供应收紧；需求方面，铁水产量仍在高位，需求环比继续增 加；库存来看，港口库存小幅去化，钢厂库存同步走低。目前 铁矿供需结构仍然偏强，情绪回补下，预计呈现偏强运行状 态。维持长线偏空思路，短线等待反弹行情结束后的做空机 会。 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易 协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈 判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与 日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积 极"的沟通。评：美国关税政策仍然具有较大不确定性，美联 储官员对降息依然保持较大谨慎。美元指数反弹，利空黄金。 黄金下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思 路为宜。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月14日 研 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on various futures and spot commodities, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, and related spreads. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Futures Data**: For crude oil, the main contract closed at 479.5 with a 1.08% increase, and the index closed at 472.0 with a 0.94% increase. PTA main contract closed at 4750 with a 2.41% increase, and the index closed at 4754 with a 2.43% increase. PX main contract closed at 6708 with a 2.82% increase, and the index closed at 6740 with a 2.87% increase. Rubber main contract closed at 14995 with a 1.66% increase, and the index closed at 15121 with a 1.65% increase. NR main contract closed at 12855 with a 2.39% increase, and the index closed at 12815 with a 2.23% increase [5]. - **Spot Data**: Crude oil (Oman) was at 406.0, up 5.0 from yesterday. PTA (East China) was at 4930, up 120. PX (Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhejiang) was at 6700, up 100. Rubber (SCRWF, Shanghai) was at 14900, down 50 [7]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: Crude oil basis was -74, up 24 from yesterday. PTA basis was 180, up 299. PX basis was -8, down 174. Rubber basis was -95, up 1545. The difference between crude oil main and far - month contracts was 9, up 7.4. PTA main - far - month was 96, up 114. PX main - far - month was 148, up 238. Rubber main - far - month was - 820, down 680. PXN remained unchanged at 216, and PTA cash - flow cost remained at 4399 [7][8]. Metals - **Futures Data**: IF main contract closed at 3851.00 with a 0.04% increase. IH main contract closed at 2688.20 with a 0.10% increase. IC main contract closed at 5654.60 with a - 0.33% decrease. IM main contract closed at 5996.60 with a - 0.43% decrease. Two - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 102.35 with a 0.03% increase. Five - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 105.96 with a - 0.01% decrease. Ten - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 108.72 with a 0.03% increase. Thirty - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 119.30 with a 0.13% increase. Shanghai gold main contract (2508) closed at 765.40 with a - 1.51% decrease. Shanghai silver main contract (2508) closed at 8219.00 with a 0.44% increase [14]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: IF basis was 45.26, up 41.84. IH basis was 19.86, up 17.19. IC basis was 127.07, up 109.71. IM basis was 154.41, up 130.72. Gold basis was - 6.90, down 10.70. Silver basis was - 90.00, up 39.00. The ratio of Shanghai gold index to Shanghai silver index was 0.09, up 0.02. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 10.59, up 4.83, and other Treasury bond spreads also had corresponding changes [15][16]. Agricultural Products - **Futures Data**: The main contract of live hogs closed at 13885 with no change. Corn main contract closed at 2344 with a - 0.97% decrease. Soybean meal main contract closed at 2886 with a - 0.24% decrease. Rapeseed meal main contract closed at 2487 with a - 1.89% decrease. Soybean oil main contract closed at 7792 with a 0.08% increase. Rapeseed oil main contract closed at 9374 with a 0.60% increase. Palm oil main contract closed at 7954 with a - 0.03% decrease. Egg main contract closed at 2918 with a 0.14% increase [20]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: Live hog basis was 1035, down 75. Corn basis was - 111, down 47. Soybean meal basis was 194, up 2. Rapeseed meal basis was - 67, up 17. Soybean oil basis was 528, up 72. Rapeseed oil basis was 106, up 104. Palm oil basis was 716, up 140. Egg basis was 482, up 109. The pig - grain ratio was 5.9236, up 0.05. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 162, up 48, and other spreads also changed accordingly [21][22]. Industrial Metals - **Futures Data**: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78090 with a 0.08% increase. Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20005 with a 1.27% increase. Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22325 with no change. Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16970 with a 0.27% increase. Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123860 with a - 1.52% decrease. Shanghai tin main contract closed at 262070 with a 0.37% increase. Alumina main contract closed at 2840 with a 0.89% increase. Industrial silicon main contract closed at 8230 with a - 0.60% decrease. Lithium carbonate main contract closed at 63220 with a - 0.69% decrease [26]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: Shanghai copper basis was 65, up 50. Shanghai aluminum basis was 5, up 105. Shanghai zinc basis was 325, up 95. Shanghai nickel basis was 1090, down 5. Shanghai tin basis was 30, up 430. Alumina basis remained at 1. Industrial silicon basis was 1220, up 90. The ratios between different metals, such as nickel - tin ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, etc., also had corresponding changes [27][28]. Others - **Futures Data**: Self - ground closed at 5853 with a - 0.26% decrease. Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13330 with a 1.41% increase. Cotton yarn closed at 19685 with a 1.26% increase. Apple closed at 7744 with a - 1.22% decrease. Red dates closed at 9040 with a - 0.06% decrease. Corn starch closed at 2704 with a - 1.13% decrease. European Line Container Shipping closed at 1465 with a 5.79% increase [30].

【短评-黄金】美联储理事库格勒表示，特朗普政府的关税 政策可能会推高通胀，拖累经济增长，即使在降低关税后。贸 易局势变化令美联储难以预测未来的经济增长和通胀走势。她 认为美国的就业状况"基本稳定"，并表示通胀回落进展自去 年夏天以来已经放缓。评：美国官员对未来降息依然保持很谨 慎的态度，降息或比市场预期的更加推迟。中美经贸谈判取得 一定进展，但是落实或仍需要时日。美元指数反弹，利空黄 金。黄金下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏 空思路为宜。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月13日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】5月12日，国内钢材市场多数上涨，唐山 迁安普方坯出厂含税累计上调60报2970元/吨。国内2家钢厂上 调建筑钢材出厂价20-40元/吨，2家钢厂下调20-40元/吨。全国 31个主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3317元/吨，较上个交易 日上涨15元/吨。评：受中美关税利好消息提振，资本市场风险 偏好提升，黑色期货走强，钢市投机性需求有所回暖，短期钢 价或趋强运行，注意冲高回落风险。 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F02 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with weak orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the inventory of float glass enterprises is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1080 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass showed a downward trend. Affected by the May Day holiday, the overall shipment of enterprises was blocked, and although it improved after the holiday, it was still average. Near the weekend, some enterprises raised prices to test the market. In the North China market, prices were mostly lowered during the holiday, and shipments improved with downstream replenishment at the end of the holiday. The East China market was generally stable with minor fluctuations [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of May 8, the weekly output of float glass was 1091900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.54%. The average operating rate was 75.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 78.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels showed different trends. Overall, the weekly output is expected to decline [12] - **Demand - side**: As of April 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. The overall order level of deep - processing enterprises is still lower than the same period in previous years, but it increased in April compared with March. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with a decline in real - estate completion area in March 2025, and changes in the automobile dealer inventory warning index, heavy - truck sales, and manufacturing PMI [14][15] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 6756000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2571000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.96% and a year - on - year increase of 9.29%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, an increase of 1.4 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China increased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 9, the total long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market increased by 25203 to 804340, and the total short positions increased by 47759 to 993996. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the output is expected to decline. The demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [23]

中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美 经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中 方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、 深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。避险情绪 减弱，欧美股市上涨，贵金属转为高位震荡略偏空的走势。 5 月议息会议之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度走弱，鲍威 尔在讲话中明确提出通胀上行风险和经济下行风险，在 5 月议息会 议和鲍威尔讲话之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度推迟，近期美 联储官员讲话，依然对降息偏谨慎，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示， 美国贸易政策正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期 稳定至为关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消 化关税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举，降息预期减弱，短期利空贵金属。 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 美国 4 月份就业增长强劲，失业率保持稳定，这表明特朗普贸易政 策的不确定性尚未对招聘计划产生重大影响。美 ...