1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 21, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1147.0, down 1.50%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On August 21, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1664.0, down 0.95%. In the spot market, the seventh round of price increase has started. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1147.00 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1664.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 899361.00 lots, up 450.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 47951.00 lots, down 1572.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 112662.00 lots, down 1543.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5111.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 59.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 936.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J main - contract basis was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [2]. - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5838, down 0.10%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5750, down 20 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On August 21, the SF2511 contract was reported at 5638, up 0.21%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5510. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,838.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,638.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 589,774.00 hands, down 7005.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 453,095.00 hands, up 716.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 80,936.00 hands, up 676.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 35,845.00 hands, up 746.00 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 92.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 160.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 71,820.00 sheets, down 1228.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 20,202.00 sheets, down 395.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,510.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SM index average was 5870.00 yuan/ton, up 37.00 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 128.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 88.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 34.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 446.60 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The SM enterprise operating rate was 45.75%, up 2.32%; the SF enterprise operating rate was 36.18%, up 1.86% [2]. - The SM supply was 207,060.00 tons, up 11235.00 tons; the SF supply was 112,900.00 tons, up 3800.00 tons [2]. - The SM manufacturer inventory was 158,800.00 tons, down 2700.00 tons; the SF manufacturer inventory was 65,180.00 tons, down 6590.00 tons [2]. - The SM national steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the SF national steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The demand for SM in five major steel types was 125382.00 tons, up 182.00 tons; the demand for SF in five major steel types was 20313.96 tons, up 47.66 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary said the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected another meeting before November [2]. - The July Fed meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. Most thought the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2]. 3.7 Profit Situation - For SM, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 80 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 340 yuan/ton [2]. - For SF, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 185 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.8 Market Situation - In August, the steel mill procurement tender price for SM increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; for SF, it increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures price will fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the USDA weekly export sales report [2] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price and basis are firm [2] - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, mainland spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises mainly purchase raw materials as needed, hoping that the "Golden September and Silver October" will bring an opportunity for demand improvement [2] - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2] - Currently, the domestic old - crop supply is tight, which supports the cotton price fluctuations, but the weak downstream demand limits the upside space. The price will maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. If the future demand improves marginally, the price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 48,506 lots, down 639 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton: 481,950 lots, up 3,484 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,335 lots, down 120 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 363 lots, down 97 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton yarn: 22,074 lots, down 75 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 69 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,541 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax): 14,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,035 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,912 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton: 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn: 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit: 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 151,617.59 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 116,040.09 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.09%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.07%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.78%, an increase of 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.65%, a decrease of 0.04% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On August 21, the spinning profit was - 1,354.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The raw material cotton price decreased, and the spinning mills' spot - on - hand profit increased slightly [2] - On Wednesday, the ICE cotton December contract closed flat. On Thursday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.05% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute**: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Sowing Area**: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Inventory**: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1162.5, down 2.60%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. Dalian Commodity Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the coking coal futures JM2601 contract to no more than 1,000 lots since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing this period, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been decreasing for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1678.0, down 2.33%. On the spot side, the seventh round of price increase was initiated. Macroeconomically, China's rebar production in July was 1518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 11338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory rebounded. The pig iron output this period was 240.66 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons. With high pig iron output, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1162.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1678.00 yuan/ton, down 30.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 898911.00 lots, down 32581.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49523.00 lots, down 367.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 111119.00 lots, up 4950.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5276.00 lots, up 763.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 118.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 45.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 954.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 30.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 137.50 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan/ton; the coke output was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed to further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry, requiring strengthening industrial regulation and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity in a market - oriented and legalized manner; curbing low - price disorderly competition and improving the price monitoring and product pricing mechanism [2]. - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 135839 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; the national general public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - A national teleconference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the need to steadily optimize policies, implement policies to increase consumption, and accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Nearly one - third of US companies plan to raise prices within six months, which reflects that US companies are more inclined to pass on higher input and import costs to consumers. Large - scale price increases may exacerbate inflation, affect US household budgets, and influence the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,382 lots, up 3,663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,384 lots, down 433 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,903 tons, down 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, up 22,475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.8 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 70 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons [3]. - The import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,041.35 points, up 21.34 points; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will start meeting with 11 candidates for the Fed Chairman around September 1st; India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [3]. - Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrencies [3]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner confirmed that the government is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Intel; SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel [3]. - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit in Hungary [3]. - The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump has ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine but said air support is an option [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted due to price fluctuations, but the output still fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply is tight [3]. - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and although the demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support lead prices [3].