免责声明 生猪产业日报 2025-11-24 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11400 | 50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 136905 | 3607 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -32347 | 6894 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11500 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 1130 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with supply contraction and weak demand in the short - term, but with long - term positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined with a weekly change of - 1.43% and an amplitude of 1.59%, closing at 85,660 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials regarding the October rate cut [4] - **Domestic Situation**: China's new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate spot TC index is at a low negative level, indicating tight raw material supply. Due to tight copper ore supply and concentrated smelter maintenance, refined copper supply may contract. Downstream开工率 only rebounded slightly after falling in October, and the high copper price made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in only a small increase in spot market trading activity and a slight reduction in social inventory [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of November 21, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 155 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 85,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 190,218 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,075 lots [11] - **Spot Prices**: As of November 21, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 85,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton [13] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of November 21, 2025, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 23,557 lots, an increase of 148 lots from last week [22] 3. Option Market - As of November 21, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was close to the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.781, a decrease of 0.0099 from last week [27] 4. Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area weakened, and the crude copper processing fee remained flat. As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the southern crude copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons from September, a decline of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,687.82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 765.37 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from September, a decline of 4.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.89%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 323,144.718 tons, a decrease of 50,930.86 tons from September, a decline of 13.62%, and a year - on - year decline of 16.32%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was 567.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 771.88 yuan/ton [51] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory increased by 21,700 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 12,239 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 11,026 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 192,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Product Production and Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a decrease of 228,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.22%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.2%, and a year - on - year decline of 13.73% [60] - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.63% and 9.94% respectively. As of October 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 2%, - 13.5%, - 6%, - 2.7%, and 1.7% respectively [64] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of October 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices tumbled collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices showing a random walk. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, leading to a high - opening and low - closing situation for A - shares. On Friday, the overnight plunge in US tech stocks dragged down Asia - Pacific stock markets. Market trading activity significantly declined compared to last week. Domestically, economic fundamentals were weak in October, and financial data showed a larger decline in M1 growth than M2. The unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy, and the market is expected to be in a random walk state with stock indices remaining volatile [5][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 dropped 3.74% this week, IH2512 fell 2.77%, IC2512 declined 5.15%, and IM2512 decreased 4.80%. Spot: The CSI 300 dropped 3.77%, the SSE 50 fell 2.72%, the CSI 500 declined 5.78%, and the CSI 1000 decreased 5.80% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on last month's interest - rate cut. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some believed a December rate cut "would likely be appropriate". There was near - unanimity on stopping the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The LPR remained unchanged on November 20. US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, the STAR 50 declined 5.54%, the SME 100 decreased 5.10%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 6.15%. Overseas (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.76%, the Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased 3.48% [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors all declined, with the power equipment and comprehensive sectors weakening significantly. Industry main funds generally had a net outflow, with a large net outflow from the power equipment sector and a small net inflow in the communication sector [19][23]. 3.3.3 Other Market Data - SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with the capital price at a low level. This week, major shareholders had a net secondary - market reduction of 11.471 billion yuan, and the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 100.946 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 814.515 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts converged [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock - index futures declined this week. The domestic economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy. The market is in a vacuum of macro - data, earnings, and policies, and is expected to show a random walk with stock indices remaining volatile [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 8800 - 9400, and polysilicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with the range of 51000 - 56000 [6]. - Next week, the demand side of industrial silicon remains weak, although some sub - sectors have stable demand, it's difficult to change the overall pattern and restrains price increase. The supply contraction of polysilicon will continue next week, providing some bottom support for prices, but the demand side is also weak and hard to drive price increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: As of November 20, industrial silicon rose 0.61% this week, and polysilicon fell 2.95%. The industrial silicon futures market first rose and then fell. Polysilicon first rose slightly and then declined [6]. - **Market Outlook for Industrial Silicon**: Supply may further decrease due to the dry season. Organic silicon's actual procurement demand for industrial silicon has decreased, and polysilicon enterprises mainly purchase industrial silicon for rigid needs. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry is growing steadily but cannot make up for the weakness in other fields [6]. - **Market Outlook for Polysilicon**: The supply contraction will continue. The demand from the photovoltaic industry shows a differentiated pattern of "weak terminal, stable middle". The overall demand is weak [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was 9075 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price was 52450 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot price increased, and the basis increased. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis was 475 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 150 yuan/kg [19][26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 78,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.06% [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: During November 13 - 20, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest region increased, while that in the northwest remained stable. The cost of industrial silicon increased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 43,297 lots, a decrease of 2369 lots from the previous period [39]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly production of organic silicon was 47,500 tons (0% increase), and the weekly operating rate was 72.18% (0% increase). The cost, spot price, and profit of organic silicon increased, and the production is expected to remain unchanged [46][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 20, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the inventory was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3100 tons from the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken [60]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: As of November 20, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.44 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece from the previous week, and the battery cell price was 0.29 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.00 yuan/watt from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be negative [64]. - **Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: As of November 20, the polysilicon profit was 11,880 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40,888 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 265,700 tons [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract 2601 of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with the attention range of 16,900 - 17,300 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of November 20, the Shanghai lead futures showed a high - level decline this week. The Shanghai lead 2601 contract fell 1.91%. The weak US economic data and the gradual decline in market demand led to the high - level decline [4]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, primary lead smelters are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the improvement of raw material supply. Secondary lead smelters' output is increasing. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery market has changed. The new national standard has opened up the market space for large - capacity lead - acid batteries, but it is difficult to maintain the improvement. From a macro perspective, the recent hawkish remarks of Fed officials have dampened market sentiment. It is expected that the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate within a wide range next week [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead declined, and the ratio weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $2,010.5 per ton, and the active contract of Shanghai lead was 17,220 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 75 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $28.91 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories increased, domestic inventories decreased, warehouse receipt numbers increased, and overall lead inventories increased. As of November 20, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.64 tons, a decrease of 0.45 million tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,650 tons, an increase of 42,175 tons. The number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 30,556 tons, an increase of 4,732 tons [31][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, and production rose. As of November 13, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 71.37%, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week, and the weekly output was 38,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises remained unchanged, and production increased. As of November 13, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the average capacity utilization rate was 55.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0% [20][29]. - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, and refined lead imports declined. The export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decline of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 94.69% [37][39]. - **Demand Side** - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees remained flat. Currently, the shortage of lead ore is obvious, affecting production. As of November 13, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 340 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Sales**: In October 2025, the overall automobile sales increased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the lithium - for - lead process accelerated, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Prices**: The recycling price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased, the domestic demand gradually weakened, and lead recycling did not change much. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of waste lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,330 yuan per ton [50][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures fell, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The Xinjiang main - producing area of grey jujubes is in the late stage of harvesting, and the acquisition progress in Aksu and other places has accelerated. As of November 19, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 101.76%. The acquisition progress in the main producing areas is about 50%. The product prices in the sales areas continue to fall, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the market transactions are average. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable, and the short - term Zhengzhou jujube futures price is expected to run at a low level [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading reminders include spot prices and the consumer side. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The Xinjiang main - producing area of grey jujubes is in the late stage of harvesting, and the acquisition progress in Aksu and other places has accelerated. The sample point inventory has increased. The acquisition progress in the main producing areas is about 50%, and the acquired goods are being shipped. The product prices in the sales areas continue to fall, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the market transactions are average. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable, and the short - term Zhengzhou jujube futures price is expected to run at a low level [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12% [14]. - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 11,650 lots [15]. - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 0 [20]. - **Futures spread**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2601 contract and the 2605 contract was - 180 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 675 yuan/ton [26]. - **Purchase price in the main producing area**: As of November 21, 2025, the purchase price of Aksu jujube bulk goods was 5.5 yuan/kg, that of Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and that of Kashgar was 6.8 yuan/kg [29]. - **First - grade jujube spot price**: As of November 21, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.4 yuan/jin, and that in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [33]. - **Super - grade jujube spot price**: As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of super - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.67 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [37]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 101.76% [41]. - **Supply side - Production decline possibility**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [45]. - **Demand side - Export volume**: In September 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,283,671 kg, the export value was 36,347,933 yuan, the export average price was 15,916.449 yuan/ton, the export volume decreased by 3.43% month - on - month and 13.54% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 23,548,402 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.12% [47]. - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [52]. 4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujubes this week is presented in a chart, but specific data is not described in text [53]. - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is provided, but no specific analysis is given [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - **Inventory at Ports**: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Selling Progress**: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - **Processing Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].