Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The international sugar market is moving towards a looser supply situation, and the raw sugar market lacks positive drivers, with prices remaining low. In the domestic market, the new sugar - crushing season has fully started. As of now, 5 sugar mills in Yunnan and 9 in Guangxi have started crushing, 17 fewer than the same period last year, and the start - up of some sugar mills has been delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar prices, processing enterprises have high sales profits, and the import of sugar increased significantly in October. The short - term sugar price shows no sign of stopping the decline and is expected to remain weak [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The international sugar market supply is loosening, and the raw sugar price remains low. In the domestic market, the new crushing season has started, but some mills' operations are delayed. The import supply pressure is obvious, and the short - term sugar price is expected to remain weak [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - **ICE US Sugar**: The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.14%. As of September 30, 2025, the non - commercial raw sugar futures net short position was 105,207 lots, a decrease of 20,421 lots from the previous week. Long positions increased by 8,568 lots to 181,603 lots, and short positions decreased by 11,853 lots to 286,810 lots [12]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 65,367 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 7,971 [19][27]. Spot Market - **International Raw Sugar**: The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.11 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Domestic Sugar**: As of November 21, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,670 - 5,680 yuan per ton [35]. - **Imported Sugar Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,728 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 390 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,377 yuan per ton, down 79 yuan per ton; outside the quota was 275 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan per ton [42]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - **Production**: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [47]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [50]. - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [54]. Demand Side - **Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 crushing season had all stopped crushing. The total sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [60]. - **Related Product Output**: In October 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [64]. 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is shown in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [65]. - **Stock Market**: The chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, but no specific data is provided [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 1.36%. Shandong and Shanxi apples are still being stored, with ground transactions gradually ending and limited trading of inventory goods. As of November 19, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.7316 billion tons, an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week. The sales market is average, and the substitution effect of citrus fruits should be noted. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.36% [4][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored. As of November 19, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory increased by 89,200 tons from the previous week. The sales market is average, and the substitution effect of citrus fruits should be noted. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased by about 1.36% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 7,572 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [9][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 21, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged red Fuji apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.60 yuan per catty [18]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.7316 billion tons, an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 54.29%, an increase of 3.02% from the previous week, and that in Shaanxi was 59.10%, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: - As of November 20, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [29]. - As of November 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.43 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.12 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan per kilogram [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [37]. - In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week was presented, but specific data was not provided [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report presented the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable, but no specific analysis was provided [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed lower. The 01 - contract closed at 9,816 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the significant decline in Canadian rapeseed exports exerts pressure, the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan, with rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote rapeseed exports are positive factors. However, the possible delay of the US bio - fuel import incentive cut plan and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil drag down the international oil market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs. The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near term, and oil mills are mostly shut down, so rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting its price. But the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit rapeseed oil demand to mostly rigid demand. The short - term price fluctuation has increased, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal futures continued to decline. The 01 - contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The unexpected downward adjustment of US soybean exports by USDA triggered selling, but good domestic consumption and Chinese purchases of US soybeans support the US soybean market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term. With oil mills mostly shut down, the supply pressure is small. However, due to the decline in water temperature, the demand for aquaculture has weakened, and the rigid demand for rapeseed meal has decreased. Also, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal have weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The market has declined recently with increased volatility, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - Canadian trade policy can make a breakthrough [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 107 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is affected by both international and domestic factors, with short - term price fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 59 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly at the low level this week, with a total position of 243,824 lots, a decrease of 4,656 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total position of 356,184 lots, a decrease of 116,496 lots from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +4,542, a slight decrease from +5,946 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from a net long position of +27,455 last week to a net short position of - 10,587 this week [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 4,033 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +344 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 11 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +391 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +64 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 01 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 4.038, and the average spot price ratio was 4.06 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 01 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,626 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,266 yuan/ton, both with narrow fluctuations this week. The 01 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 581 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 600 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed - Supply**: As of November 14, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.25 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,177 yuan/ton as of November 20. The crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons in the 46th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0%. The total import volume of rapeseed in September 2025 was 11.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.14 tons [71][75][79][83]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 48.3 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.40%. The total import volume of rapeseed oil in September 2025 was 15.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 1.90 tons [87]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 495 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of catering were 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 9.28% [91][95]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 60.0%. The total import volume of rapeseed meal in September 2025 was 15.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.57 tons [99][103]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3128.7 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20.67%, a 0.02% increase from last week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market oscillated within a range this week due to the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to offer clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped significantly, and the precious metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short term, precious metals lack clear positive factors, and gold prices will mainly move in an oscillatory manner next week. In the long run, due to the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further. The suggested attention range for the SHFE gold 2602 contract next week is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2602 contract, it is 11,500 - 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: Affected by the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the precious metals market oscillated within a range this week. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to provide clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. Although the number of new jobs significantly exceeded market expectations, the downward revision of previous data and the unexpected increase in the unemployment rate (the highest in four years) made the data less impressive. The Fed officials were divided on the interest - rate cut stance, with most supporting maintaining interest rates and some advocating a looser policy. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped from nearly 70% at the beginning of last week to 30% - 45% this week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the suppression of interest - rate cut expectations is unfavorable for gold prices. The lack of data guidance and the callback of the US stock market may exacerbate the liquidity risk and the callback of the precious metals market. The neutral - to - hawkish tone of the Fed officials restricts the upward space of gold prices. In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: After a significant increase in the previous period, the precious metals market corrected at a high level this week. As of November 21, 2025, COMEX silver was at $48.77 per ounce, down 3.23% for the week; the SHFE silver 2602 contract was at 11,680 yuan/kilogram, down 5.43% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4,032.9 per ounce, down 1.33% for the week; the SHFE gold 2602 contract was at 926.94 yuan/gram, down 2.75% for the week [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs increased, while those of gold ETFs decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,039.43 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous period; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,247 tons, a 0.50% increase from the previous period [12][16]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX position data of precious metals stopped being updated. As of September 23, 2025 (the latest), the total COMEX gold positions were 528,789 contracts, a 2.43% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 266,749 contracts, a 0.13% increase from the previous period. The total COMEX silver positions were 165,805 contracts, a 1.75% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 52,276 contracts, a 1.43% increase from the previous period [17][21]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.46 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was 94 yuan/kilogram [22][24]. - **Inventory**: This week, the SHFE gold inventory increased, while the silver inventory decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,937,024.89 ounces, a 1.61% decrease from the previous period; the SHFE gold inventory was 90,426 kilograms, a 0.90% increase from the previous period. The COMEX silver inventory was 15,247 ounces, a 0.50% increase from the previous period; the SHFE silver inventory was 576,894 kilograms, a 7.40% decrease from the previous period [27][31]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of October 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand decreased. The Chinese silver import volume was 239,777.07 kilograms, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 149,358,822 kilograms, a 6.99% decrease from the previous period [33][37]. - **Downstream Demand**: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of October 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4,177,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7% [39][42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The silver supply - demand situation is in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a 4% year - on - year increase; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a 22% year - on - year decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a 2% year - on - year increase; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [44][48][52]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Product Price**: This week, the price of gold jewelry decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 929.60 yuan/gram, down 2.71% from the previous period. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1,302 yuan/gram, 1,305 yuan/gram, and 1,273 yuan/gram respectively [54][58]. - **Investment Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened week - on - week, and the CBOE gold volatility declined. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.24%, slightly lower than last week [64][68][72]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the third quarter of 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchase from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [76][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly due to a decrease in arrivals and port inventories. The Fed's December rate cut expectation weakened, and the iron ore supply pressure was alleviated by a decline in arrivals in recent weeks. The iron ore production remained above 2.35 million tons, but the current weakness in the coking coal and steel markets might affect the ore price. The I2601 contract should focus on the resistance around 800, with short - term trading and attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of the close on November 21, the iron ore main contract futures price was 785.5 (+13) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 844 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 447,400 tons week - on - week. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, and the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 29.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.601 million tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 399,400 tons. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472,300 tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.413 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484,500 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production decreased by 600 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 77,990 tons. As of November 21, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,990 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 194,530 tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,780 tons [6]. - **Profit Margin**: The steel mill profit margin was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the Fed had a large divergence on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections were launched, and the central bank kept the loan prime rates unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories declined. The steel mill blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal production were slightly adjusted downwards. Technically, the I2601 contract of iron ore rushed up and consolidated, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards but had not effectively broken through the 0 axis [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, with a spread of 29.5 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions**: On November 21, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 800, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 527, an increase of 27,890 from the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On November 21, the Macfayden powder ore with 61% iron content at Qingdao Port was reported at 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 59 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, while the arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased by 77,990 tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3110 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased by 74,780 tons week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 950 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased by 0.16 days [35]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On November 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2170, a week - on - week increase of 145 [40]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In October, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5.017 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports increased by 0.7% year - on - year. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines increased by 0.38% week - on - week, the daily average fine powder output increased by 240 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2410 tons [43]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Output**: In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. In September, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines decreased by 35,600 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.5% [47]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [50]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, cumulative exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and cumulative imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [50]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On November 21, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [53]. 5. Options Market - Due to the support of the decline in iron ore inventory, the ore price was strong, but the overall black sector was weak, especially the decline in steel mill profits might squeeze the ore price. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options when iron ore rebounds [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The market is caught between weak reality and strong expectations. The egg futures price maintained a low - level weak oscillation this week and may continue to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 3184 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 51 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6] - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding side have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. The low spot price has led to poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity still suppresses the market [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The January contract of egg futures oscillated downward. The position was 217,887 lots, an increase of 8,924 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,470, compared with - 17,934 last week, and the net short position increased [12] - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16] - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2896 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 143 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active January contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 288 yuan per ton [22] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 309 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26] - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.71 yuan per kilogram [32] 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38] - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43] - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2278.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3000 yuan per ton [47] - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.38 yuan per hen. The average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53] - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.08 yuan per kilogram [55] - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with the same period last month [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and market investment demand has weakened. The RB2601 contract may continue to trade within a range. Traders are advised to engage in short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control. Considering the rebound, it is advisable to buy put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price and Spread**: As of the close on November 21, the futures price of the main rebar contract was 3057 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (+10) [7] - **Production**: Rebar production increased to 207.96 million tons (+7.96), year - on - year decrease of 25.86 million tons [7] - **Demand**: Apparent demand rebounded to 230.79 million tons (+14.42), year - on - year decrease of 3.41 million tons [7] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar continued to decline to 553.34 million tons (-22.83), year - on - year increase of 108.23 million tons [7] - **Profit Margin**: The profit - making rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, there is a large divergence among Fed policymakers on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections has been launched, and the central bank has maintained the loan prime rates unchanged. Rebar production has stopped falling and rebounded, with capacity utilization rising to 45.59%, and EAF steel operating rate continuing to increase. Downstream demand is better than expected, apparent demand has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline. Iron ore prices are oscillating strongly, while coal and coke prices are weakening. Technically, the RB2601 contract is trading in a range of 3000 - 3100 [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first rose and then fell. The price of the RB2601 contract was stronger than that of the RB2605 contract, and the spread on the 21st was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On November 21, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,107 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 82,833 lots, an increase of 7,798 lots from the previous week [22] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 21, the spot quotation of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 21st was 193 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On November 21, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31] - **Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventory**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.699 billion tons, a decrease of 3.994 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.689 billion tons, a decrease of 4.723 billion tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 10.413 billion tons, a decrease of 4.845 billion tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.99 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 billion tons, an increase of 31.1 million tons [36] - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily coke output was 497,500 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. Coke inventory was 434,400 tons, an increase of 72,900 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 billion tons, a decrease of 335,600 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Crude Steel**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [44] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Production**: On November 21, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.3628 billion tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from last week and an increase of 480,000 tons from the same period last year. On November 20, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 2.0796 billion tons, an increase of 796,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 2.586 billion tons from the same period last year [47] - **Supply - Side - EAF Steel**: On November 20, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 45.59%, an increase of 1.74% from last week and a decrease of 5.67% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point and a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 percentage points [50] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Inventory**: On November 20, the in - plant inventory of rebar of 137 building - materials production enterprises was 1.5332 billion tons, a decrease of 710,000 tons from last week and an increase of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.0002 billion tons, a decrease of 1.573 billion tons from last week and an increase of 10.363 billion tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5334 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.283 billion tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.823 billion tons [54] - **Demand - Side**: From January to October 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the newly started floor area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 3.0% [57] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the rebound in both rebar production and demand, poor performance of raw materials, weakened cost support, and short - term pressure, it is advisable to consider buying put options on the rebound [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The SA2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommended focus range of 1130 - 1210. The FG2601 is expected to oscillate bearishly, with a recommended focus range of 950 - 1050 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: As of November 20, the soda ash futures dropped 4.4%, and the glass futures fell 4.46%. Soda ash futures declined due to insufficient demand, and glass futures continued to fall due to poor real - estate demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the supply side is in a capacity expansion phase. The 1 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuanning Energy's Alxa Base entered the commissioning stage in mid - November, and other expansion projects are in progress. Although there was a temporary inventory reduction, the inventory pressure remains high. The demand side is weak, with the float glass industry (accounting for about 60% of soda ash demand) being sluggish and the new capacity release of photovoltaic glass slowing down. The cost support is weakening. For glass, the supply side faces capacity release pressure and high inventory. The demand side shows seasonal weakness, with poor real - estate completion demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises. The cost does not provide substantial support [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the closing price of soda ash futures was 1158 yuan/ton, and that of glass futures was 989 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of soda ash in the Shahe market was 1130 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 28 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass in the Shahe market was 989 yuan/ton, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass spread was 169 yuan/ton. All spreads are expected to weaken next week [17][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 20, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 82.68%, a 2.12% decline from the previous period, and the weekly output was 72.09 tons, a 2.48% decline. The output is expected to decrease next week [34]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 164.44 tons, a 0.44% decline, and the inventory of glass enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a 0.09% increase [40]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton joint - alkali method was - 235 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1876 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 120 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1395 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 206.84 yuan/ton, a 10.19% decline; using coal - made gas was 25.79 yuan/ton, a 49.68% decline; using petroleum coke was 8.52 yuan/ton, a decline [45]. - **Glass Production**: As of November 20, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 221 in production and 75 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.02 tons, a 0.33% decline from the previous period, and the output is expected to remain low next week [49]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.35%, unchanged from the previous period, and the daily melting volume was 89380 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period. Both are expected to weaken next week [53]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.9 days, indicating low demand [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with positive demand expectations and inventory reduction in the industry. However, due to large market fluctuations, cautious trading is recommended. Traders are advised to engage in light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a change of +4.19% and an amplitude of 16.94%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 91,020 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - situation**: At the 15th High - tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference in 2025, it was mentioned that the prices in the lithium - battery industry chain have stabilized and rebounded this year, and the demand in the power battery and energy - storage markets is strong, indicating a new round of lithium - battery capacity expansion [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the raw - material side, driven by the rise in lithium carbonate spot prices, lithium - ore quotes have increased significantly, and mines are more willing to sell. Smelters are increasing their purchases due to capacity - expansion needs, resulting in active raw - material transactions. On the supply side, raw - material costs support the spot price, and smelters are actively participating in hedging due to the rapid rise in the futures market, maintaining a high operating rate and increasing domestic supply. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate remains resilient, but the rapid rise in lithium prices in the short term has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream buyers are more cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid needs, leading to calm trading in the spot market and increased market fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,660 yuan/ton. The near - far - month spread of lithium carbonate was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Spot Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,150 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,490 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Lithium - Spodumene Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,210 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 258 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1167, a week - on - week increase of 0.29% [18]. 3.3.2 Lithium - Mica and Lithium - Aluminum - Phosphate Stone Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of lithium - aluminum - phosphate stone was 10,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,928 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 568 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, an increase of 4,283.79 tons from September, a growth rate of 21.86% and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.95%. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, an increase of 95.1 tons from September, a growth rate of 63.06% and a year - on - year decline of 17.93% [27]. - **Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, an increase of 4,390 tons from September, a growth rate of 9.31% and a year - on - year growth rate of 62.15%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [27]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of November 21, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 175,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, an increase of 14,350 tons from September, a growth rate of 6.98% and a year - on - year growth rate of 41.32% [30]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 38,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,850 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium - iron - phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an increase of 20,580 tons from September, a growth rate of 8.36% and a year - on - year growth rate of 45.92%. The operating rate was 64%, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 5% [34]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons from September, a decline rate of 1.77% and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.95%. The operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month decline of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to rise [39]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, an increase of 380 tons from September, a growth rate of 3.83% and a year - on - year decline of 3.65%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 37,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [44]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, an increase of 710 tons from September, a growth rate of 4.71% and a year - on - year growth rate of 116.01% [47]. 3.4.3 Application Side - **New - Energy Vehicle Sales**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 46.75%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 7.15%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.92% [50]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of October 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.36% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.32, presenting a reverse - arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short - straddle option strategy [57].