| | | | | 20260205申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | | | 111 | | | 11 | | | | 9 层 | 1月 | 5月 | | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1445.0 | 1209. 0 | 1281.5 | 1913.0 | 1770.0 | 1831.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1410.0 | 1167.5 | 1245.5 | 1874.0 | 1715.0 | 1784. 0 | | EH | 煮跌 | 35.0 | 41.5 | 36.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 47.5 | | स्त | 煮跌幅 | 2. 48% | 3.55% | 2. 89% | 2. 08% | ...

申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 | | | 期货 | | | | 价差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16385 | 13300 | 13360 | 现值 | 3085 | 3025 | -60 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16180 | 13135 | 13245 | 前值 | 3045 | 2935 | -110 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 205 | 165 | 115 | 涨跌 | 40 | 90 | 50 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 1.27% | 1.26% | 0.87% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 245413 | 43945 | 69473 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 13360 | 51371 | -10 | 现值 | -185 | -1260 | 2115 | | | 持仓量增减 | 115 | 18 ...

| | | 20260204申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenvb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | | 18 | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1410.0 | | 1167.5 | 1245.5 | 1874. 0 | 1715.0 | 1784.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1397.5 | | 1141.5 | 1226.0 | 1840.0 | 1680. 5 | 1746.5 | | 楽時 | 12.5 | Ele | 26.0 | 19.5 | 34. 0 | 34.5 | 37.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 89% | स्त | 2. 28% | 1.59% | 1.85% | 2. 05% | 2.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping route is expected to continue declining before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080. There is currently a discount of about 200 - 300 points in the market. With a deep discount and strong expectations, there is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the focus is more on the expected - level gaming [1]. - The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market recently. Attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on the EC. The main event at the expected level is the pre - April 1 export rush of products such as photovoltaic. It may bring the cargo volume equivalent to about 2 container ships of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU, which is unlikely to cause full - load cabins in the post - holiday off - season but may lead to price increases by shipping companies, price stabilization, or even a slight upward trend in freight rates. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices and the possible falsification of expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602: The latest trading price is 1737.8 points, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The trading volume is 612 (a decrease of 318 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1883 (a decrease of 456 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 205 [2]. - EC2604: The latest trading price is 1237.9 points, with a daily increase of 5.22%. The trading volume is 29296 (a decrease of 3522 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 34229 (an increase of 423 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1655 [2]. - EC2606: The latest trading price is 1533.7 points, with a daily increase of 2.57%. The trading volume is 3147 (a decrease of 2797 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 13458 (an increase of 860 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608: The latest trading price is 1597.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The trading volume is 353 (a decrease of 778 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1479 (an increase of 29 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2610: The latest trading price is 1128.6 points, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The trading volume is 1355 (a decrease of 1149 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 7677 (a decrease of 207 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2612: The latest trading price is 1439 points, with a daily increase of 3.18%. The trading volume is 29 (a decrease of 11 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 128 (an increase of 7 compared to the previous period) [2]. - Total: The total trading volume is 34792, and the total open interest on one side is 58854. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1860 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: The SCFIS is 1792.14 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The SCFI is $1418/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.8% [4]. - Daily Spot Freight Rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1604/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 3.3%. The TCI (40GP) is $2725/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a change of - 53.3 points [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.65% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. The copper price may enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.62% overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee declined, the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Market Information - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 104,140 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 175 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,410 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 64.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 174,675 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,725 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,099 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,175 tons, and the daily change was 1,450 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,915 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,323 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 109,100 tons, and the daily change was - 900 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 134,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,395 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 216.92 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 285,528 tons, and the daily change was - 756 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,560 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 145 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,962 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 49.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 204,075 tons, and the daily change was - 1,500 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 382,460 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 4,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 50,295 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 241.04 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 7,105 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2]. Downstream Demand - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level [2].

20260204申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 明 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、 完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅 供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决 策与本公司无关。 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 449.4 | 452.9 | 65.51 | 65.03 | 68.74 | 67.69 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 449.0 | 450.2 | 63.50 | 63.14 | 6 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.414 | 102.444 | 105.905 | 105.930 | 108.260 | 108.250 | 111.96 | 112.1 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.390 | 102.408 | 105.860 | 105.895 | 108.250 | 108.210 | 112.06 | 112.2 | | | 涨跌 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.045 | 0.035 | 0.010 | 0.040 | -0.100 | -0.100 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.02% | 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the US Soybean Export Council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The US EPA will soon release final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy, which boosts demand expectations, but the harvest pressure in Brazil has led to a decline in US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the high inventory of soybean meal and the expectation of sufficient supply in the distant months continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The oil market: Night trading of oils closed higher. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, production decreased month - on - month, and the reduction of tariffs improved future export expectations. The palm oil market is in a de - stocking cycle, which supports palm oil prices. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8086, 9094, and 9215 respectively, with changes of - 6, + 80, and + 79, and percentage changes of - 0.07%, + 0.89%, and - 3.15%. The previous closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2362, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 23, - 21, and + 26, and percentage changes of - 0.84%, - 0.88%, and + 0.29% [1] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of 56, 134, and 90. The current spreads of Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 are - 946, 1057, and 111 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 1000, 971, and - 29. The current spreads of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1 are - 48 and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 45 and 57. The current spread of M - RM09 is 559, compared with the previous value of 579. The current ratios of M/RM09, Y/M09 are 1.24 and 2.87 respectively, and Y - M09 is currently 5349, compared with the previous value of 5406 [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), CBOT US soybean oil (in cents per pound), and CBOT US soybean meal (in dollars per ton) were 4180, 1067, 54.52, and 292 respectively, with changes of - 40.0, + 6.8, + 1.3, and - 2.2, and percentage changes of - 0.95%, + 0.64%, + 2.40%, and - 0.75% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot Prices and Changes - **Oils**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8470 and 8570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24% and - 0.35%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9160, with a percentage change of 1.10%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9890 and 9860 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.20% [1] - **Meals and Nuts**: The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3030 and 3090 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.66% and - 0.96%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2520 and 2460 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.79% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150 and 7300 respectively, with no change [1] Spot Basis - For oils, the spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 384 and 484 respectively, that of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is 66, and that of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is 675 and 645 respectively. For meals, the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is 303 and 363 respectively, and that of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is 271 and 211 respectively. The spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is - 880 and - 730 respectively [1] Spot Spreads - The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460, the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1340, and the spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 630, compared with the previous values of - 460, 1270, and 600 respectively [1] Import, Crushing Profit, and Warehouse Receipts - **Import and Crushing Profit**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 377, - 256, 0, - 224, 223, and 465 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 469, - 253, 4, - 217, 133, and 399 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,460, 450, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively. The previous values of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 26,460, 0, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively [1] Industry Information - The US Soybean Export Council CEO said global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - According to SPPOMA data, from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period of last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - According to CONAB data, as of January 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week, 8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 11.8% [2] - According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month [2] - The Indonesian President announced a plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste [2]

免责声明 申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 | | | | 期货 | | | 价差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16180 | 13135 | 13245 | 现值 | 3045 | 2935 | -110 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 15980 | 12970 | 12935 | 前值 | 3010 | 3045 | 35 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 200 | 165 | 310 | 涨跌 | 35 | -110 | -145 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 1.25% | 1.27% | 2.40% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 254278 | 46455 | 80476 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 13245 | 49513 | 3395 | 现值 | -180 | -1220 | 2220 | | | 持仓量增减 | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/4 星期三 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 IF下季 IF隔季 | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4710.00 4711.00 4699.80 4655.00 | | | 前日收盘价 | 4582.20 4577.40 4540.00 4491.80 | | | 涨跌 | -136.20 -142.20 -167.60 -170.60 沪深300 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2.89 -3.01 -3.56 -3.66 | | | 成交量 | 34422.00 110802.00 33589.00 12595.00 | | | 持仓量 | 3754 ...