Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed weak performance in the night session yesterday, with a slight increase in the total open interest of coking coal. Steel Union data indicates that last week, the output of the five major steel products remained basically flat, the total inventory decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The profitability of sample steel mills increased. The expected resumption of molten iron production in January and the seasonal increase in downstream pre - festival rigid demand for restocking can support coal prices, so the short - term decline of the futures market is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in molten iron output, and the downstream restocking rhythm [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1365.5, 1124.0, and 1203.5 respectively, with declines of - 49.0, - 50.5, and - 50.5 compared to the day before, and decline rates of - 3.46%, - 4.30%, and - 4.03% respectively. For coke, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1860.0, 1673.5, and 1748.5 respectively, with declines of - 21.5, - 47.5, and - 50.0 compared to the day before, and decline rates of - 1.14%, - 2.76%, and - 2.78% respectively [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal for January, May, and September contracts were 2200, 1088191, and 53740 respectively, and the open interests were 2444, 532732, and 78390 respectively, with increases in open interest of 808, 29998, and 0 respectively. For coke, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 55, 22017, and 778 respectively, and the open interests were 67, 38429, and 1493 respectively, with increases in open interest of 32, 792, and 182 respectively [1] - **Price Spreads**: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1] Spot Market Data - **Spot Prices**: The current prices of Mongolian - 5 main coking coal (port pick - up price), low - sulfur main coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur main coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan first - grade coke, Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price were 1234, 1620, 1530, 1800, 1280, and 1450 respectively. The change in the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was - 20, while the others remained unchanged [1] Policy Information - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal. Using existing land and real - estate resources for industries supported by the state can enjoy a transitional policy of not changing the land - use subject and planning conditions for up to 5 years [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper price closed 1.28% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to supply disruptions in mines, the global copper supply - demand outlook has shifted to a deficit. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed 1.0% lower overnight. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, the zinc price may experience a phased correction. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 100,940 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 155 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 12,754 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 101.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,425 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 3,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 23,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,108 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 12.62 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 485,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 3,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 24,365 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,173 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 43.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 105,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,475 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 141,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,740 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 17,614 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 200.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 285,708 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 24 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,165 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,029 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 46.32 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 203,500 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 399,000 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5,810 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 49,412 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 92.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 6,440 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 505 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session rose 0.91%, geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks; the demand for crude oil from the "Joint Declaration" member countries is expected to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026 and increase to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] - Methanol night session rose 1.14%, domestic CTO/MTO start - up decreased slightly, overall coastal methanol inventory declined slightly, and it is short - term bullish while paying attention to the situation in Iran [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 453.7 and 454.8 respectively, with price increases of 1.1 and 0.9 and increases of 0.24% and 0.20%; for WTI, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 60.14 and 59.83 respectively, with price increases of 0.44 and 0.47 and increases of 0.74% and 0.79%; for Brent, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 63.37 and 62.96 respectively, with price increases of 0.62 and 0.61 and increases of 0.99% and 0.98%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided, and there are changes in open interests [2] - **Spread Information**: The current spreads of SC near - month - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, etc. are given, and there are also comparisons with the previous values [2] - **Exchange Rate Information**: The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates are provided [2] - **Comment**: The external market rose [2] Spot Market - **International Market**: The current prices and previous prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, etc. are given, and the international crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose [2] - **Domestic Market**: The current prices and previous prices of domestic crude oil such as Daqing and Shengli, as well as the wholesale price indices of gasoline and diesel, FOB naphtha in Singapore, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene are provided [2] Commodity - Specific Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Trump's attitude towards Iran and Venezuela affected the market, and the OPEC report gave demand forecasts for the "Joint Declaration" member countries' crude oil in 2026 and 2027 [3] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load decreased, the import volume decreased, the coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume of imported ships from January 15 to February 1 is 73.15 - 74 million tons [3]

| | | | | 20260121申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5200 | 5183 | 5182 | 14.73 | 14.35 | 14.68 | | | 前2日收盘 | 5260 | 5244 | 5242 | 14.99 | 14.58 | 14.86 | | | 价 | | | | | | | | 期 | 涨跌 | -60 | -61 | -60 | -0.26 | -0.23 | -0.18 | | 货 | 涨跌幅% | -1.14 | -1.16 | -1.14 | -1.73 | -1.58 | -1.21 | | ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.444 | 102.470 | 105.875 | 105.880 | 108.180 | 108.105 | 111.49 | 111.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.400 | 102.428 | 105.785 | 105.815 | 108.040 | 107.980 | 110.92 | 111.03 | | | 涨跌 | 0.044 | 0.042 | 0.090 | 0.065 | 0.140 | 0.125 | 0.570 | 0.570 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform in 2026 will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up the prices of resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.60, 4708.60, 4674.00, and 4615.00 respectively, with price drops of - 21.00, - 18.40, - 11.80, and - 15.40. The trading volumes were 25937.00, 79866.00, 19613.00, and 4293.00, and the open interest increased by 1118.00, 398.00, 487.00, and 591.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3073.60, 3075.40, 3069.60, and 3040.80 respectively, with price drops of - 3.00, - 3.00, - 5.20, and - 3.80. The trading volumes were 9734.00, 31503.00, 5816.00, and 1675.00, and the open interest changes were 166.00, - 503.00, 251.00, and 221.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8257.80, 8248.80, 8142.00, and 8024.20 respectively, with price drops of - 40.80, - 41.00, - 21.40, and - 12.20. The trading volumes were 37883.00, 123309.00, 38855.00, and 13522.00, and the open interest increased by 3365.00, 3742.00, 5200.00, and 6430.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8162.20, 8120.80, 7946.00, and 7778.00 respectively, with price drops of - 80.60, - 84.60, - 72.60, and - 79.40. The trading volumes were 41590.00, 150527.00, 38608.00, and 15115.00, and the open interest changes were 846.00, 3572.00, - 535.00, and 4320.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 2.00, 1.80, - 9.00, and - 41.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 4.20, 1.20, - 15.80, and - 43.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4718.88, 3070.65, 8247.80, and 8182.75 respectively, with price drops of - 0.33, - 0.17, - 0.48, and - 1.00. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 282.72, 60.00, 289.86, and 336.69, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6719.61, 1757.36, 5881.71, and 5790.37 respectively [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, optional consumption, and real - estate finance industries had price increases of 0.97%, 1.23%, 0.62%, and 0.64% respectively, while the industrial, pharmaceutical and healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications services industries had price drops of - 0.32%, - 0.95%, - 1.96%, and - 2.88% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 8.28, - 10.28, - 44.88, and - 103.88 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.95, 4.75, - 1.05, and - 29.85 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 10.00, 1.00, - 105.80, and - 223.60 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 20.55, - 61.95, - 236.75, and - 404.75 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4113.65, 14155.63, 8727.52, and 3277.98 respectively, with price drops of - 0.01%, - 0.97%, - 1.19%, and - 1.79% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26487.51, 52991.10, 6796.86, and 24689.67 respectively, with price drops of - 0.29%, - 1.11%, - 2.06%, and - 1.08% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy Measures**: A package of policies for promoting domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment, the implementation of a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, and the optimization of loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, personal consumption loans, and equipment renewal loans [2] - **Global Bond Market**: The Greenland crisis and concerns about fiscal pressure have triggered a global bond - market sell - off. Japanese long - term government bonds have been sold off on a large scale, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds have risen by more than 25 basis points in a single day. The yields of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have all risen by about 8 basis points. A Danish pension fund plans to liquidate its US Treasury bond holdings [2] - **Government Speeches and Policies**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 and held talks with the US Treasury Secretary and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies should focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [2] 6. Industry Information - **Water Resources and Water - saving Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will continue to improve the total water - resource management and comprehensive water - saving system, aiming to increase the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water to over 0.6 and expand the scale of the water - saving industry to over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - **Oil Price Adjustment**: The domestic refined - oil price has increased for the first time in 2026. Starting from 24:00 on January 20, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 85 yuan per ton, and the prices of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - grade diesel have increased by 0.07 yuan per liter on average [2] - **Medical Insurance Policy**: The National Healthcare Security Administration has officially issued a guide for the pricing of auxiliary operation items, standardizing 37 price items, 5 additional items, and 1 extended item [2] - **Land Supply Plan**: Beijing has announced its 2026 construction - land supply plan, with 200 - 240 hectares of commercial - residential land and 350 hectares of affordable - housing land to be supplied. A city - renewal plan index has been listed for the first time [2] 7. Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The three major US stock indexes declined, and the domestic stock index fell in the previous trading day. The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the gains, while the communication sector led the losses. The market trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan. On January 19, the margin trading balance decreased by 8.501 billion yuan to 2.705932 trillion yuan [2] - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner, driven by the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures closed in the red. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable; for drawn PP, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina also remained stable. Fundamentally, the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices continues to support chemical products at the cost end. However, after the short - term rebound, crude oil has started to fluctuate, which has a certain impact on chemicals. After continuous rebounds, polyolefins may fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6640, and 6664 respectively, with price drops of -14, -27, and -27 and percentage drops of -0.21%, -0.40%, and -0.40% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6459, 6461, and 6492 respectively, with price drops of -37, -21, and -23 and percentage drops of -0.57%, -0.32%, and -0.35% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 50, 384215, and 20448 respectively; the trading volumes for PP January, May, and September contracts were 141, 293620, and 21559 respectively. The open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were 71, 495212, and 51049 respectively; the open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were 586, 466241, and 85985 respectively. The changes in open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were +29, +9748, and +2270 respectively; the changes in open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were +79, -4253, and -3354 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 66, -24, and -42 respectively; the previous spreads were 53, -24, and -29 respectively. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -2, -31, and 33 respectively; the previous spreads were 14, -33, and 19 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2208 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6300 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Tuesday (January 20), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.34 per barrel, up $0.90 from the previous trading day, a 1.51% increase, with a trading range of $58.95 - $60.68. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.98 from the previous trading day, a 1.53% increase, with a trading range of $63.38 - $65.15 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal closed slightly higher, while rapeseed meal closed lower in a volatile manner. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has increased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, and institutions are raising their production forecasts. However, good domestic crushing data in the US provides some support for soybean prices. In China, state - reserve auctions have been successful, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to pressure prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on domestic rapeseed prices [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was relatively strong. Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were strong with a decline in production, and a tariff cut is expected to improve future exports, supporting palm oil futures prices. There is positive news for US soybean oil demand due to biofuel policy expectations. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement has weakened rapeseed oil prices recently, also limiting the short - term prices of soybean and palm oils [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut were 2727, 2327, and 8844, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are - 364, 62, and - 746 respectively, with previous values of - 390, - 26, and - 627 [2]. - Ratios - Spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are - 238, 2394, 492, 1.21, 2.72, and 4978 respectively, with previous values of - 179, 2419, 457, 1.19, 2.73, and 4962 [2]. International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bu), 52.51 (cents/lb), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8570 and 8620 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.47%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8800, with a percentage change of 1.15%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9810 and 9880, with percentage changes of 0.31% and 0.51% [2]. - Basis: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 538, 52, and 862 respectively. The basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 344, 101, and - 756 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 150, 1210, and 650 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 237, - 247, - 54, - 201, 321, and 414 respectively, with previous values of - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 26,985, 1,148, 1,935, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% (AmSpec data) and 11.4% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the US shipped 611,983 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 45.78% of the total export inspection volume of the week, down from 58.91% the previous week [3]. - As of January 17, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, up from 0.6% last week, compared to 1.2% last year and a five - year average of 3.2% [3]. - The NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record [3]. - Canada and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement to reduce tariff barriers in the electric vehicle and rapeseed sectors [3].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.49% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.04% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may experience a phased correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Overnight price up 0.49%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 100,990 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 110 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 12,966 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 67.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory 143,575 tons with a daily increase of 2,450 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,025 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 150 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,159 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 15.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 488,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: Overnight price down 0.04%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,234 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 41.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 106,525 tons with a daily decrease of 175 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 142,320 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5,750 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 18,133 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 196.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 285,732 tons with a daily increase of 450 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 135 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,061 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 47.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory 206,350 tons with a daily decrease of 5,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 389,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis 26,370 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 49,258 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 108.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,935 tons with a daily increase of 10 tons [2]. Demand - side Information - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is decreasing, and the real - estate market remains weak. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level [2].