1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract dropping 0.1% and the trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds also fluctuated, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.94bp to 1.84%. The market risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the US Treasury bond yields rebounded. The domestic economy is still in an adjustment phase, and the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: The Treasury bond futures prices generally fell. For example, the T2512 contract decreased by 0.1%. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds varied, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.94bp to 1.84% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2512 contract decreased, while that of some other contracts increased [2] - **Arbitrage Analysis**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 days decreased by 0.5bp, DR007 increased by 0.27bp, and GC007 increased by 0.8bp [2] - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.94bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 28.71bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term Treasury bonds increased. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro and Industry Information - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield rose to 1.772%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan, and the LPR quote remained unchanged this month. The Shibor stayed at a low level, and the capital market was loose. The domestic economy is still in an adjustment phase, with the real - estate market remaining weak [3] - **Policy Expectations**: The State Council stated that it would implement counter - cyclical adjustments, and the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. There may be reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and Treasury bond trading operations in the fourth quarter [3] - **International Events**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, which eases the market risk - aversion sentiment. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to an increase in oil prices and a rebound in US Treasury bond yields [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects a. Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 86,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,817 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 11.55 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 136,850 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. b. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed flat. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 3,023 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 225.89 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. c. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,865 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 8.21 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 482,525 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 121,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,530 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,335 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 190.56 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,615 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,012 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 36.83 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 281,230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 35,725 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 2,745 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins followed the crude oil trend. Currently, the supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term volatile rebound trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6999, 7044, and 7058 respectively, with price increases of 63, 66, and 49 and percentage increases of 0.91%, 0.95%, and 0.70% respectively. The trading volumes were 253296, 26147, and 495, and the open interests were 531489, 62406, and 1129, with changes of - 18375, 487, and 194 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 45, - 14, and 59, compared to previous values of - 42, - 31, and 73 [2]. - **PP (Polypropylene) Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6691, 6740, and 6734 respectively, with price increases of 72, 75, and 54 and percentage increases of 1.09%, 1.13%, and 0.81% respectively. The trading volumes were 320558, 28822, and 1586, and the open interests were 618484, 126580, and 6035, with changes of - 14771, 1854, and 1037 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 49, 6, and 43, compared to previous values of - 46, - 15, and 61 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: Methanol futures were at 2294 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene at 6010 yuan/ton, South China propane at 542 dollars/ton, PP recycled materials at 5600 yuan/ton, North China powder at 6510 yuan/ton, and plastic film at 8800 yuan/ton. Most prices remained stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: The spot prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450, 6850 - 7150, and 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [2]. News - On Thursday (October 23, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil December 2025 futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.79 per barrel, up $3.29 or 5.62% from the previous trading day, the largest increase since June 13. The trading range was $59.64 - $62.20. The settlement price of Brent crude oil December 2025 futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.99 per barrel, up $3.40 or 5.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.86 - $66.36 [2].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/10/24 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4574.00 | 4563.40 | 4537.00 | 4500.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4593.60 | 4580.80 | 4553.80 | 4516.80 | | | 涨跌 | 15.60 | 14.60 | 14.20 | 15.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.3 ...

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 24 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：新蓝图，新起点 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标：高质量发 展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破， 社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进 展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。在此基础上再奋斗五年，到二〇三五年实现我国经 济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产 总值达到中等发达国家水平，人民生活更加幸福美好，基本实现社会主义现代化。 国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 3.48%报 469.8 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪 金收涨 1.56%报 948.64 元/克，沪银涨 1.48%报 11517 元/千克。 重点品种： 贵金属、原油、白糖 贵金属：金银高位调整后价格企稳。俄乌冲突有望进一步降温，但美国制裁俄罗 斯两大石油巨头之后，地缘政治风险再起。贸易对抗阶段性升温，但近期美方有 表态有所缓和。美联储主席暗示暂停缩表，但市场对年内两次降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

| | 1、巴西植物油行业协会Abiove预测该国2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.785亿吨，高于 | | --- | --- | | | 去年的1.718亿吨。2、印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，印尼2025年1-9月生物柴油消费量 | | 行业 | 为1057万公升，较去年同期的961万公升增加近10%。3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数 | | 信息 | 据，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加10.77%，其中马来半岛增加4.54%，沙巴增加 | | | 21.99%，沙捞越增加16.69%，婆罗洲增加20.45%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨，最新出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月16日的一周，美国大豆 | | | 出口检验量为1,474,354吨，高于市场预期区间，较一周增长45%。巴西新季大豆播种有序推进， | | | 根据AgRural数据截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到24%，高于前一周的14%和去年同 | | | 期的18%。近期市场对于中美贸易关系缓和预期升温，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，市 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index will enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the upward market trend, considering the expected increase in pro - growth policies in the fourth quarter and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may return to value in the fourth quarter and be more balanced than in the third quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of 20.80, 21.20, 20.20, and 20.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 21714.00, 65140.00, 8023.00, and 2057.00, and the positions were 38677.00, 151558.00, 55037.00, and 4041.00 respectively. The position changes were - 3011.00, - 6000.00, - 1150.00, and 708.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased slightly, with decreases of 3.80, 1.80, 2.80, and 1.80. The trading volumes were 11040.00, 31434.00, 3566.00, and 1049.00, and the positions were 14291.00, 59769.00, 13098.00, and 1315.00 respectively. The position changes were - 219.00, - 2561.00, - 338.00, and 283.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with decreases of 57.80, 56.20, 55.20, and 39.20. The trading volumes were 23265.00, 68879.00, 12798.00, and 4297.00, and the positions were 45760.00, 131680.00, 51376.00, and 7623.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4745.00, - 8301.00, - 643.00, and 1052.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases of 35.80, 36.20, 35.40, and 34.60. The trading volumes were 35068.00, 120919.00, 18115.00, and 8259.00, and the positions were 68005.00, 180451.00, 78082.00, and 15098.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4046.00, - 10035.00, - 2049.00, and 2464.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 10.60, 2.00, - 53.40, and - 74.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed, with the CSI 300 down 0.33%, the SSE 50 up 0.09%, the CSI 500 down 0.80%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.43%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.63%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively, while the raw materials, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors had negative growth rates of - 0.99%, - 0.86%, and - 0.95% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed certain changes compared with the day before yesterday [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all had positive growth rates of 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and DAX Index had positive growth rates of 0.65%, 3.37%, and 0.29% respectively, while the S&P 500 had no change [1] V. Macro Information - US President Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but also mentioned that the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there is currently no information to provide on the specific issue [2] - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Multiple fund managers, mainly leading ones, have submitted a batch of indexes intended as performance comparison benchmarks, covering various types such as broad - based, industry, and style. However, the regulatory authorities are relatively cautious about the number of indexes entering the actual benchmark library [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury to discuss Airbus' cooperation with China. Wang emphasized that Airbus should continue to strengthen cooperation with China based on the commissioning of the second A320 final assembly line in Tianjin. China will continue to play the role of the round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises to help solve problems and concerns in Airbus' development and operation in China [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 was 17.7%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.9% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] VI. Industry Information - The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was officially released, proposing that by 2040, the penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach over 85%, with BEV accounting for 80%. L4 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will be fully popularized, and L5 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will start to enter the market [2] - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the game version numbers for October, with 159 domestic games and 7 imported games approved. The number of approvals was at a high level this year, second only to 173 in August. Many well - known game companies such as Tencent, Zhongqingbao, and 37 Interactive Entertainment had new games on the list [2] - Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Sun Shuxian said that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will increase to nearly one trillion yuan. China will strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure, consolidate the data resource base, and prioritize the opening of data resources closely related to people's livelihood and in urgent social demand to the public [2] - According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2512 contract remaining unchanged and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China and overseas markets had different changes. The overall market environment was affected by multiple factors, and it was expected that the central bank would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which would support the prices of treasury bond futures [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous trading day saw the prices of treasury bond futures vary. For example, the TS2512 contract fell by 0.014 (0.01%), the TF2512 contract rose by 0.020 (0.02%), the T2512 contract remained unchanged, and the TL2512 contract rose by 0.020 (0.02%) [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2512 decreased by 1250, while that of TF2603 increased by 475. The trading volume of each contract also differed, with the TL2512 having a trading volume of 113354 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 0.080, 0.110, 0.310, and 0.300 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, such as 1.5711 for TS2512, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 rate increased by 0.37bp, and GC007 rate increased by 1.8bp [2]. - **Yields of Chinese Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of Chinese key - term treasury bonds had different changes. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield decreased by 0.98bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 27.73bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yields of Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally decreased. The 10Y - term US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y - term German treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, and the 10Y - term Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 0.4bp [2]. Macro and Market Environment - **Domestic Situation**: Treasury bond prices generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased to 1.763%. The central bank's net injection was 685 billion yuan, the LPR quote remained unchanged this month, Shibor was at a low level, and the capital was loose. The domestic economy had mixed performance, with industrial added - value growth better than expected, but consumption, investment, and real estate still facing challenges [3]. - **International Situation**: The US president released a conciliatory signal, the market's risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut increased, leading to a decline in US treasury bond yields. The US government was in a shutdown state, and the federal debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices fluctuated and consolidated. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power supply investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. - Price outlook: Copper prices may be on the stronger side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,659 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,150 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed higher, and the low LME inventory led to an obvious spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate slowed down, automobile production and sales had positive growth, home appliance production scheduling had negative growth, and the real estate market was weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different [2]. - Price outlook: Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,985 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 338.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,275 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Previous domestic futures closing price was 21,015 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,806 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 2.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 484,125 tons, and daily change was - 3,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Previous domestic futures closing price was 121,120 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,430 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,140 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 202.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Previous domestic futures closing price was 17,160 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,995 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 39.73 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Tin: Previous domestic futures closing price was 281,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,400 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 55.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2].