Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0.05% and an increase in open interest [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate remained unchanged, the DR007 rate rose 0.18bp, and the GC007 rate fell 1bp [2]. - Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield fell 0.13bp to 1.66%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 24.75bp [2]. - The external environment has become more complex, and the "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased global economic uncertainty. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy has driven up the prices of some commodities, and the price fluctuations of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of most treasury bond futures contracts rose, with T2509 rising 0.05%. The open interest of T2509 increased, while that of some other contracts showed mixed changes. Trading volumes also varied among different contracts [2]. - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - delivery spread of T2509 increased from - 0.0800 to - 0.055 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of domestic key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 6M, 1Y, and 30Y yields rose, while the 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y yields fell [2]. - **Yield Spreads**: The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 24.75bp, and other yield spreads also changed [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield fell 1bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2]. Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 4505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3605 billion yuan. Foreign institutions collectively raised their forecasts for China's 2025 GDP growth rate. The US Congress passed two cryptocurrency - related bills, and the US retail sales in June rebounded strongly [3]. - **Industry Information**: On July 17, most money market interest rates declined. The yields of US treasury bonds showed mixed changes, mainly affected by Trump's statements and market interpretations of economic data [3]. Comments and Strategies - Treasury bond futures prices rose slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond fell to 1.658%. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a stable market liquidity. The external environment was complex, and the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supported treasury bond futures prices. However, short - term price fluctuations might increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal effect of external disturbances is decreasing, and domestic autonomy in the chemical industry is significantly increasing. The supply of the domestic chemical industry is expected to gradually see positive changes, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies in other sectors may boost the valuation of the petrochemical and chemical industry [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [3][11]. - The global economy is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation for the crude oil market [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly, with high uncertainty, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, the national maximum power load reached a new high, exceeding 15 billion kilowatts [8]. b. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.67%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.57%, the US dollar index fell 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil continuous fell 0.22%, and other commodities also had different changes in prices [9]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. The social services sector led the rise, and the steel sector led the decline. The trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.66%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 4446 billion yuan. The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the "anti - involution" policy may increase the volatility of treasury bond futures prices [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil had a volatile night session. US refined oil demand decreased compared to the same period last year, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. OPEC predicts that the global economy will improve in the second half of the year [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.59% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed weak consolidation. The consumption of polyolefins entered a relative off - season, and the cost support weakened. The market focus returned to the supply - demand side, but the supply - demand repair needs time [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and rebounded slightly at night. The summer maintenance reduced supply, and the glass inventory decreased slightly last week. Soda ash futures mainly declined, and its inventory increased. Both are in the inventory digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the digestion process [4][17]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new natural rubber in domestic production areas was affected by rainfall, and the raw rubber price was supported. The overall output in overseas production areas was smooth, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. The market lacks continuous positive support, and the upward space is limited [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver rose and then fell, continuing to fluctuate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down. Although the long - term driving force for gold still exists, it is hesitant to rise. Silver is relatively strong [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The smelting output is under test, and the downstream demand is generally stable. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed higher at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory increased. The market sentiment improved, and the price rebounded in the short term, but it may still be in a volatile state [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has strong resilience. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory continues to decline. The steel export is affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, but the billet export is strong. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal increased last week, and the market had a positive feedback. The supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy and the Politburo meeting in July [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The USDA report was neutral to bearish, and the US soybean crop rating is good. The domestic supply is abundant, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the Malaysian palm oil export increased. With strong demand, the palm oil price is supported, and the overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC opened higher and fluctuated. The market is still gambling on the peak - season space of the European line. Attention should be paid to the announcement of the shipping company's August freight rates [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The July USDA report was overall neutral to bearish, and the high soybean good rate in the US continued to pressure the futures price. The domestic supply surplus situation will still limit the upside, and it is expected that the Dalian protein meal will maintain a volatile trend [3]. - The night - trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil rose slightly. The MPOB report was overall neutral to bearish, but high - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a surge in Indian imports. It is expected that palm oil prices will still be supported, and the overall fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, so it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8042, 8722, and 9470 respectively, with price changes of 30, 14, and 66, and percentage changes of 0.37%, 0.16%, and - 3.15% respectively. The price differences and ratios of various varieties also showed certain changes [2]. International Futures Market - The previous closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4109 (Ringgit/ton), 1020 (cents/bu), 55 (cents/lb), and 283 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 0, 17, 0, and 3, and percentage changes of 0.00%, 1.72%, 0.57%, and 1.14% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - The spot prices of domestic oils and meals showed different trends. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.24% and 0.37% respectively, while the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.34%. The spot prices of some protein meals were stable [2]. Import and Profit - The import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 414, - 243, - 69, 137, 572, and 419 respectively, showing certain improvements compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - From July 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the production increased by 17.06%. India plans to increase domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [3]. US Soybean Data from USDA Report - The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean planting area and harvested area to 83.4 million acres and 82.5 million acres respectively, while keeping the yield per unit at 52.5 bu/acre. The production forecast was lowered by 5 million bu to 4.335 billion bu. The US soybean crushing volume in 2025/26 was increased by 50 million bu to 2.54 billion bu, and the export volume was slightly lowered by 70 million bu to 1.745 billion bu. The ending inventory was increased by 15 million bu to 310 million bu [3]. Indian Vegetable Oil Import Data - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand shows mixed trends, with the real estate sector being weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand in the power and automotive sectors is growing positively, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,980 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,637 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 64.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 110,475 tons, and the daily change was 850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand in the automotive and infrastructure sectors is growing, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,700 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 8.95 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 118,600 tons, and the daily change was 5,200 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 100 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,576 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 416,975 tons, and the daily change was 11,425 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,700 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 207.51 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.02 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 271,075 tons, and the daily change was 10,125 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,510 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 32,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 108.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,980 tons, and the daily change was - 115 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2509 contract down 0.05% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed. Overall, the current external environment is more complex, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports treasury bond prices to some extent, but the "anti - involution" policy drives up some commodity prices, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract decreased by 0.05%. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, suggesting no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Most short - term market interest rates declined on the previous trading day. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped by 4.2bp, the DR007 rate fell by 5.66bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 4.3bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.13bp to 1.66%, and the 10 - 2 year yield spread was 25.05bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.3bp [2]. Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan. The State Council held a meeting to discuss various policies. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and Trump made statements about the Fed chair [3]. - **Industry Information**: On July 16, most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends. The yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, mainly affected by the news of Trump's potential dismissal of the Fed chair [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share investment has a high cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. - It is expected that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the IF current - month contract down 4.80, the next - month contract down 7.40, the next - quarter contract down 9.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 9.80. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,238.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,132.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts dropped, with the current - month contract down 16.00, the next - month contract down 18.20, the next - quarter contract down 17.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 18.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 19,124.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 1,830.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts declined, with the current - month contract down 7.40, the next - month contract down 12.60, the next - quarter contract down 15.20, and the alternate - quarter contract down 13.00. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,182.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 5,099.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current - month contract down 28.60, the next - month contract down 29.20, the next - quarter contract down 34.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 31.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 49,078.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,311.00 [1]. 3.2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index rose 0.03%, with a previous value of 4,019.06, a trading volume of 19.104 billion lots, and a total trading value of 353.525 billion yuan [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The index dropped 0.38%, with a previous value of 2,747.23, a trading volume of 4.117 billion lots, and a total trading value of 79.806 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The index fell 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,020.86, a trading volume of 18.928 billion lots, and a total trading value of 226.291 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index decreased 0.30%, with a previous value of 6,442.83, a trading volume of 26.987 billion lots, and a total trading value of 347.378 billion yuan [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: The energy sector dropped 0.55%, the raw materials sector decreased 0.89%, the industrial sector fell 0.47%, the optional consumption sector rose 0.93%, the main consumption sector dropped 0.94%, the medical and health sector decreased 0.05%, the real - estate and finance sector fell 0.79%, the information technology sector rose 1.40%, the telecommunications business sector rose 6.09%, and the public utilities sector decreased 0.69% [1]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 was - 9.46, the next - month contract was - 25.86, the next - quarter contract was - 38.46, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 70.46 [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The basis of the IH current - month contract to the SSE 50 was - 7.03, the next - month contract was - 12.23, the next - quarter contract was - 13.03, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 12.03 [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The basis of the IC current - month contract to the CSI 500 was - 10.56, the next - month contract was - 69.76, the next - quarter contract was - 125.36, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 248.36 [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The basis of the IM current - month contract to the CSI 1000 was - 20.83, the next - month contract was - 90.03, the next - quarter contract was - 165.43, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 343.83 [1]. 3.4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, the Small and Medium - Cap Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.60%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.40%, and the DAX Index dropped 0.42% [1]. 3.5. Macroeconomic Information - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The first - quarter GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [2]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14th to 15th. China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [2]. - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with a month - on - month increase in new - home prices, and only Xining had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, deleting 3 technology items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The restricted export of battery cathode material preparation technology was newly added [2]. 3.6. Industry Information - The financial regulatory authority strengthened the supervision of local asset management companies, clarifying prohibited business behaviors [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to formulate mandatory national standards for mobile power sources to set stricter technical standards [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched a special campaign to rectify prominent problems in live - streaming e - commerce [2]. - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement has been launched, with 55 varieties included in the procurement volume reporting scope, and new drugs are not included [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and positive, with power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may range - fluctuate, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,910 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,644 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 48.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 109,625 tons, and the daily change was 900 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,733 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 9.95 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 113,400 tons, and the daily change was 8,150 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 405,550 tons, and the daily change was 5,275 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 210.81 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 402 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 31.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and the daily change was 11,575 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,095 tons, and the daily change was 125 tons [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the July USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, with US soybean futures prices breaking down after the report. However, the biodiesel policy will support prices, and US soybeans are expected to trade in a range. In China, the ample supply will limit the upside, and Dalian soybean meal is also expected to trade sideways [3]. - The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, but high - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. With strong demand, especially from India, palm oil prices are expected to be supported. The fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, and the overall market is expected to remain volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8012 for soybean oil, 8708 for palm oil, 9404 for rapeseed oil, 2978 for soybean meal, 2651 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 18, - 40, - 20, - 14, 133, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, - 0.46%, - 3.15%, - 0.47%, 5.28%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., are provided, along with their previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4109 for BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), 1003 for CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), 54 for CBOT soybean oil (in cents per pound), and 280 for CBOT soybean meal (in dollars per ton). The price changes were - 6, - 5, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.15%, - 0.47%, 0.76%, and - 0.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions, along with their percentage changes, are provided. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8210 with a 0.24% change [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current and previous values of spot basis and spreads for different products are given, such as the spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, etc., and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, etc. [1]. Import and Crush Profit - The current and previous values of import and crush profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, etc., are presented [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided [1][2]. Industry Information - **Brazil Exports**: Brazil's estimated exports in July are 1219 million tons of soybeans, 225 million tons of soybean meal, and 460 million tons of corn, which are higher than previous estimates [3]. - **Malaysia Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621770 tons, a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month. According to Amspec, the exports were 574121 tons, a 5.29% decrease [3]. - **USDA Report on Soybeans**: The USDA reduced the estimated planted and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, while keeping the yield per acre unchanged. The production estimate was reduced, but the crush volume was increased, and the export volume was slightly decreased, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory [3]. - **India's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current external environment is more complex, and the "reciprocal tariff" policy increases global economic uncertainty. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for bond futures prices. However, the "anti-involution" policy drives some commodity prices higher, and the risk appetite in the short-term market increases, which may lead to greater fluctuations in Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose by 0.15%, and its trading volume decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short-term market interest rates generally increased. For instance, the SHIBOR 7-day rate rose by 3.1bp, the DR007 rate rose by 4.51bp, and the GC007 rate rose by 1.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key-term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.29bp to 1.66%, and the yield spread between long and short-term (10 - 2) Treasury bonds was 25.12bp [2]. - Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose by 7bp, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Germany dropped by 3bp, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Japan rose by 1.4bp [2]. Macro News - On July 15, the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net full-caliber injection of 173.5 billion yuan [3]. - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [3]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held from July 14 - 15, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [3]. - With the "white list" policy and the recovery of the real estate market, the debt - resolution work of real estate enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner. The decline in the funds available to real estate development enterprises has narrowed. However, real estate sales area and prices are still falling year - on - year, and greater efforts are needed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [3]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [3]. - NVIDIA will resume the sale of H20 chips in China and launch a new GPU for the Chinese market [3]. Industry Information - On July 15, most money market interest rates increased. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day variety rose by 10.6BP to 1.53%, hitting a new high in over a month [3]. - US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly driven by factors such as the increase in risk - aversion sentiment due to Trump's promotion of reciprocal tariffs, higher - than - expected US CPI data in June, concerns about global government fiscal deficits, and tighter market liquidity [3]. Comments and Strategies - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan, and Shibor short - term varieties rose collectively. The market liquidity tightened. To maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, a consecutive second - month increase in roll - over operations [3]. - Economic data in June showed that industrial added value, exports, and financial data were better than expected, while consumption and investment growth rates declined year - on - year. The decline in real estate investment growth rate widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The expectation of the introduction of real estate - stabilizing policies increased [3].