Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market is expected to continue its volatile trend. Domestic oil mills' high operation and high - pressure production will accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory. With uncertainties in US soybean demand and concerns about China - US trade tariffs, the short - term trend will remain volatile [2] - The oil market is predicted to maintain a volatile pattern. The supply of domestic soy - based products will gradually recover, and the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season with inventory accumulation. Although the recent export increase is favorable, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, and the inventory accumulation trend is likely to continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased. The price changes were 0.71%, 1.69%, 0.29%, - 3.15%, - 1.11%, and - 3.04% respectively [1] - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, M - RM09, etc. have changed compared to the previous values [1] International Futures Market - BMD palm oil decreased by 1.02%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.63%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 1.25%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.07% [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some products like Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased [1] - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spreads between some products such as Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil have changed [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The import and crushing profits of different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. have different values and changes compared to the previous values [1] Industry Information - Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. By the end of May, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major oil mills had reached nearly 7 million tons. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 increased by 13.21% compared to the same period last month. Indian edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month, reaching 1.18 million tons, and palm oil imports increased by 87% month - on - month, reaching 600,000 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EC of container shipping to Europe rebounded during the session, with the 08 contract closing at 2100.2 points, a slight increase of 0.76%. CMA CGM took the lead in announcing an increase in the peak - season surcharge (PSS) for the Asia - Europe route, indicating the shipping companies' intention to raise and support prices during the traditional peak season, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the peak season [1]. - MSC has announced a price increase notice for the second half of June, with the 40 - foot container quoted at $3900, higher than the current average price of about $1400 in the first half of the month. Although the full implementation probability is low, it is expected to further push up freight rates under the relatively low capacity deployment in the second and third weeks of June [1]. - The 06 contract has basically entered the delivery logic, with limited expected actual fluctuations. The 08 contract will continue to be anchored to the actual progress of the peak season on the European route, and it also prices in the freight rate decline after the peak season in August. The current market valuation is relatively neutral, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the actual anchor [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1894.1 points, with a daily increase of 3.02%. The trading volume is 5349 (a decrease of 2006 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 10553 (a decrease of 484 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 516 [2]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 2100.2 points, with a daily increase of 0.76%. The trading volume is 86405 (a decrease of 16342 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 45769 (an increase of 3945 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 489 [2]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1339 points, with a daily decrease of 2.31%. The trading volume is 14689 (a decrease of 92 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 23789 (an increase of 662 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1539.3 points, with a daily decrease of 0.18%. The trading volume is 1729 (an increase of 20 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 4587 (an increase of 177 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1358.8 points, with a daily decrease of 1.56%. The trading volume is 632 (a decrease of 285 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 2736 (a decrease of 47 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1181.9 points, with a daily decrease of 2.62%. The trading volume is 884 (an increase of 146 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 3405 (an increase of 122 compared to the previous period) [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: The SCFIS is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [4]. - Daily spot freight rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1712/TEU, with a day - on - day increase of 14.6%. The TCI (40GP) is $2727/FEU, with a day - on - day increase of 13.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was - 847.38 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was - 828.25 points, with a change of - 19.13 points [6]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 511336 TEU, a decrease of 1405 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratio is 1.9%. The idle capacity ratios of container ships of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU are 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [7]. - Speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [7]. - In - port capacity: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 18.77 million TEU, in Hamburg is 7.92 million TEU, and in Singapore is 35.02 million TEU [7]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf is 16. The north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [7]. - Time charter rates: For 6 - 12 months, the time charter rate for 9000TEU is $103000 per day, for 6500TEU is $68000 per day, and for 2500TEU is $34500 per day [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading session, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The domestic manufacturing PMI improved in May, but the overall economy is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain relatively loose, which still supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent trade negotiations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping 1.9bp to 1.68%. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of some contracts increased, such as T2509 and TL2509. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunity [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping to 1.68% [2]. Overseas Market - The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally rose. The 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - A total of 16026 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market this week. In May, the central bank conducted 7000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading operations. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China, and Trump announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose, and the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [3]. Comment and Strategy - The domestic economy is in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain loose, which supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示，5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5%和 47.1%， 比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启， 进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5，前值 48.7。美 国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值为 52，初值 52.3。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售 费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一 ...

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250603申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：假期LME铜价上涨83美元。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶 | | | | 炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升 | 幅波动 | | | 有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美 国关税进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：假期LME锌价上涨26美元。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据 | | | | 来看， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, polyolefins showed a weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, and the previous rebound in the market has digested the positive macro - factors at home and abroad. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support for chemicals, but the slight rebound in international crude oil prices during the long - holiday is conducive to the stabilization of polyolefins [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6923, 6928, and 6960 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 62, and - 65, and declines of - 0.89%, - 0.89%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes were 35322, 83, and 311232, and the open interests were 108143, 513, and 548604, with changes of 4615, 39, and 5320. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 5, - 32, and 37 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6802, 6817, and 6875 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 55, and - 43, and declines of - 0.90%, - 0.80%, and - 0.62%. The trading volumes were 35928, 229, and 267599, and the open interests were 80929, 517, and 514977, with changes of 2828, 193, and - 6161. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, - 58, and 73 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2222 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 625 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7200 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (June 2), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73 or 2.85% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85 or 2.95% from the previous trading day [2]

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 752.26 | 757.90 | 8110.00 | 8176.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 759.70 | 765.62 | 8172.00 | 8237.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -7.44 | -7.72 | -62.00 | -61.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.98% | -1.01% | -0.76% | -0.74% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 67172 | 55950 | 161604 | 125287 | | | | 成交量 | 69209 | 14621 | 253713 | 33734 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].