Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of palm oil in China is expected to improve, and the inventory may increase, leading to a gradual decline in prices [2] - The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, but the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The overall price of edible oils has declined due to factors such as the weakening of the hype sentiment of US biodiesel and the increase in palm oil production and inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Information - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record - high soybean yield in the 2024/2025 season, with an average yield of 66.3 bags per hectare, 14 bags higher than the recent average [2] - As the international palm oil price drops significantly, China's palm oil purchases have increased. It is expected that China will import 250,000 tons and 280,000 tons of palm oil in May and June respectively. Considering the compressed domestic consumption, the supply is expected to improve, inventory may rise, and prices will gradually weaken [2] - The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA's supply - demand report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the import of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly [2] Comment and Strategy - Edible oils showed a weak trend at night. The US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has been extended, but the hype sentiment of US biodiesel has weakened, and the price of US soybean oil has declined. The MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have exceeded expectations, and the overall price of edible oils has declined due to the drop in crude oil prices [2] - Protein meals fluctuated weakly at night. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to sowing. The USDA report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly, and the sufficient supply in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures Market**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased, with declines of - 1.49%, - 1.66%, and - 3.15% respectively; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, with increases of 0.31% and 0.62% respectively; the price of peanut futures increased by 0.29% [1] - **International Futures Market**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil futures increased by 2.82%, while the prices of CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal futures decreased by - 2.11%, - 5.52%, and - 1.47% respectively [1] - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.33% to - 2.29%; the spot prices of soybean meal in Nantong and Dongguan decreased, while the spot prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and Dongguan increased; the spot prices of peanuts remained unchanged [1] - **Import and Profit**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans decreased, while the import profit of Canadian crude rapeseed oil increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for peanuts decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts for other varieties remained unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish outlook for stock index futures and recommends using a long - straddle buying strategy for stock index options to capture the trend after direction selection. The short - term positive news such as the favorable policies on May 7 and the stage results of China - US tariff negotiations on May 12 are beneficial to the stock market. Currently, the valuation levels of major Chinese indices are still low, and it is cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts in different periods decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.67% to - 0.74%. The trading volume was between 3,433 and 59,965, and the open interest decreased from - 244 to - 11,402 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts in different periods increased, with increases ranging from 1.75% to 2.01%. The trading volume was between 2,516 and 48,329, and the open interest increased from 1,153 to 13,041 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.10% to - 1.17%. The trading volume was between 5,256 and 58,925, and the open interest decreased from - 9 to - 12,886 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.28% to - 1.40%. The trading volume was between 10,403 and 155,023, and the open interest changes ranged from - 15,638 to 722 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, with current values of - 35.40, - 18.40, - 97.80, and - 109.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 35.60, - 20.40, - 102.20, and - 113.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased, with declines of - 0.91%, - 0.49%, - 1.45%, and - 1.68% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indices**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries all showed different degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 0.37% to 2.21% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indices showed certain changes. For example, the basis of IF contracts relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 4.26 to - 0.21 for the current - month contract, and the basis of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.22 to 0.50 for the current - month contract [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.68% to - 1.91% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.79%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 0.98%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.72% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic economic stability. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to safeguard the high - quality development of the capital market. The top - level design for urban renewal in China was introduced. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips, and the Fed Chairman Powell considered adjusting the core content of the monetary policy framework [2] 6. Industry Information - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut on May 7, over a hundred bank wealth management products had their performance comparison benchmarks lowered, and the industry may face an "asset shortage." 19 FOF products issued liquidation warning announcements this year, with many experiencing significant scale shrinkage. The real estate industry in 2024 was still in an adjustment period, with only 11 out of the top 30 real estate enterprises achieving revenue growth. The domestic HarmonyOS ecosystem has a million - level talent gap, which is expected to widen in the next three years [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, polyolefins traded in a consolidating manner. From a fundamental perspective, the consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined. This week, they rebounded along with the rebound of crude oil. From a macro perspective, the previous China - US meeting reached a consensus, which is generally positive for the commodity market. However, the decline in crude oil prices today requires short - term attention to its subsequent impact on the cost support of chemicals. Overall, after a short - term phased rebound, polyolefins may experience high - level consolidation in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For different contract months of LL and PP, there were both increases and decreases. For example, the 1 - month LL contract decreased by 42 yuan to 7217 yuan, a decline of 0.58%, while the 5 - month LL contract increased by 20 yuan to 7500 yuan, a rise of 0.27% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest showed different trends. For instance, the trading volume of the 9 - month LL contract was 460827, and its open interest was 527579 with a decrease of 1551 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months also changed. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL changed from - 221 to - 283 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - Finished Products**: The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures and (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials showed different trends. For example, the price of methanol futures decreased from 2366 yuan/ton to 2322 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The price ranges of LL and PP in different markets remained relatively stable, with only minor adjustments in some regions [2] Information on Crude Oil - On Thursday (May 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.62 per barrel, down $1.53 or 2.42% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.53 per barrel, down $1.56 or 2.36% from the previous trading day [2]

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Nickel prices may show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continued growth in home appliance production, and potential for new energy to boost automotive copper demand. The narrowing decline in real estate data is also a factor. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 185,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 4,075 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 215 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,765 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.27 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 167,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 900 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract closed up 0.67%. Sino - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply and demand of alumina are expected to be loose, but some manufacturers currently have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures prices to fall again, a further decline in bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. Recently, the operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for the aluminum cable sector, have declined slightly, and the market expects a decrease in downstream orders. In the short term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, but due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation results, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,529 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 399,300 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract closed up 0.92%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight, leading to a continuous increase in nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may cause local nickel product prices to rise. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production reduction expectations, so nickel salt prices may rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,300 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,871 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 195.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 198,432 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 84 tons [2]. Lead - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 180 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,997 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,900 tons [2]. Tin - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 32,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 73.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,775 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 15 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current Sino - US game has entered a new stage of "talking while fighting", and the 90 - day policy window period is both an opportunity and a test. Domestic policies need to balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, and the uncertainty of the external environment tests market resilience [2]. - For the stock index futures, it is advisable to take a bullish stance, and for stock index options, a wide - straddle buying strategy can be used to capture the trend after the direction is determined. For treasury bonds, short - term fluctuations may increase as market risk appetite rises [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Chief Comment - China announced the suspension of export control measures on 28 US entities, and the US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, with 24% of the remaining 34% tariffs suspended for 90 days, marking a compromise in the two - year fentanyl tariff dispute, but the game continues [1]. - Domestic policy combinations are precisely targeted. The central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut released trillions of liquidity, and the 15 new policies on science and technology finance resonate. The policy focus is shifting from total stimulus to structural optimization [1]. - The Trump administration shows new trends in its "art of the deal", with a combination strategy of trade and fiscal policies [1]. 3.2. Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night session dropped 0.59%. US April CPI data showed a 2.3% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. US crude inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the space for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3]. - **Shipping**: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The TCI index showed increases in the US West and East routes. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes [4]. - **Gold**: With the positive news of tariff relaxation realized, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and new economic data. Gold is in a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [6]. 3.3. Daily Main News - **International News**: The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days. It also adjusted the tariff on small Chinese parcels [7]. - **Domestic News**: By the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased 8.7% year - on - year, and M2 balance increased 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month [8]. - **Industry News**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries' production in April only increased by 25,000 barrels per day, far below the target. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth [9]. 3.4. Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.10%, the European STOXX50 fell 0.32%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.91%, and the US dollar index rose 0.08%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.13%, London gold spot fell 2.24%, and London silver fell 2.10%. Other commodities also showed different price changes [11]. 3.5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes showed mixed performance. The stock index rose, and the non - banking financial sector led the rise. With positive policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the stock market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. The valuation of major Chinese indexes is low, and long - term investment is cost - effective [12]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally fell. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.672%. With the progress of Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC night session decline was affected by US CPI data and inventory changes [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas was at a low level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded. The climate in domestic producing areas is good, and the supply is expected to increase. The total inventory in Qingdao is rising. The tariff policy is unfavorable to the raw material end, and the long - term trend is expected to be weak [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded strongly. The consumption of polyolefins has peaked, but due to cost fluctuations and the rebound of crude oil, they are expected to slow down the rebound speed after the short - term rebound [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures stopped falling and rebounded, and soda ash futures opened low and closed high. The inventory of both is under pressure, and the destocking process takes time. The market is positive about the Sino - US financial ministers' talks [19][20]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined as the positive news of tariff relaxation was realized. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and economic data [21]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate widely. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and domestic downstream demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and other factors [22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the previous decline has digested some of the production growth expectations [23]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for the non - ferrous metals market. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak in the short - term, but the price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the price is rising. The nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to be strong [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium prices are weak, and salt factories are reducing production. The supply in May is expected to decline, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is pessimistic without large - scale production cuts [27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal/Coke**: The black series is repaired by macro - positive factors. The cost of coking coal is declining, and the supply is increasing. The second - round price increase of coke failed, and a price cut is expected. The market is bearish on the rebound [28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is expected to change, but the demand is supported by the increase in iron water production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term [29]. - **Steel**: The supply of steel is increasing slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. The export of steel billets is strong, but the demand for building materials and plates is expected to decline seasonally. The market is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The USDA report was positive for soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy was positive for soybean oil. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil production and inventory, which is bearish for palm oil [32]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal was strong at night, and soybean meal opened high and closed low. The US soybean planting weather is good, and the USDA report is positive. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase [33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The corn market is in a short - term shock. The supply in July is expected to be tight, but high - price raw materials suppress the profit of deep - processing enterprises. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [34]. - **Cotton**: Cotton maintained a strong trend. The new cotton planting in Xinjiang is basically completed, and the emergence rate is good. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term trend is strong [35]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Routes**: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes. The 06 contract is expected to have limited fluctuations, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [36].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that for stock index futures, the overall attitude is to be mainly bullish. For stock index options, the wide - straddle buying option strategy can be used to capture the trend - following market after the direction is chosen. The short - term situation is favorable for the stock market due to the release of favorable policies at the May 7th press conference and the May 12th phased results of China - US tariff negotiations. Currently, the valuation levels of China's major indices are still relatively low, and it is still cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market for allocation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - In the IF series, the previous day's closing prices of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3943.00, 3907.40, 3841.40, and 3803.40 respectively, with increases of 50.80, 56.00, 58.80, and 58.80. The trading volumes were 33690.00, 81957.00, 18781.00, and 4996.00, and the changes in open interest were - 2859.00, 20634.00, 5162.00, and 2132.00 [1]. - In the IH series, the previous day's closing prices of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2756.00, 2737.60, 2707.00, and 2704.00 respectively, with increases of 47.40, 49.60, 53.00, and 53.40. The trading volumes were 15043.00, 48329.00, 10349.00, and 2516.00, and the changes in open interest were 1153.00, 13041.00, 3349.00, and 1237.00 [1]. - In the IC series, the previous day's closing prices of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 5800.00, 5697.80, 5533.00, and 5420.40 respectively, with increases of 32.80, 43.40, 42.60, and 40.80. The trading volumes were 34192.00, 72621.00, 16925.00, and 6675.00, and the changes in open interest were - 4771.00, 14940.00, 3068.00, and 2598.00 [1]. - In the IM series, the previous day's closing prices of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 6156.60, 6043.00, 5847.00, and 5702.00 respectively, with increases of 30.20, 46.00, 43.00, and 41.40. The trading volumes were 49231.00, 189515.00, 39828.00, and 12916.00, and the changes in open interest were - 7334.00, 26417.00, 6509.00, and 2476.00 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - The previous day's value of the CSI 300 index was 3943.21, with a trading volume of 172.03 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3194.65 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.21%. The previous day's value of the SSE 50 index was 2753.79, with a trading volume of 46.49 billion lots and a total trading amount of 947.24 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.69%. The previous day's value of the CSI 500 index was 5799.12, with a trading volume of 156.28 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1881.45 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.30%. The previous day's value of the CSI 1000 index was 6160.37, with a trading volume of 211.56 billion lots and a total trading amount of 2525.14 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.15% [1]. - Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities sectors had different increases and decreases, with the major consumption and real - estate finance sectors having relatively high increases of 2.12% and 2.21% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the previous day's bases of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 0.21, - 35.81, - 101.81, and - 139.81 respectively. For the SSE 50, the previous day's bases of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2.22, - 16.19, - 46.79, and - 49.79 respectively. For the CSI 500, the previous day's bases of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 0.88, - 101.32, - 266.12, and - 378.72 respectively. For the CSI 1000, the previous day's bases of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 3.77, - 117.37, - 313.37, and - 458.37 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic Main Indices and Overseas Indices - Among domestic main indices, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous day values of 3403.95, 10354.22, 6407.77, and 2083.14 respectively, with increases of 0.86%, 0.64%, 0.58%, and 1.01% respectively. Among overseas indices, the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous day values of 23640.65, 38128.13, 5892.58, and 23527.01 respectively, with increases of 2.30%, - 0.14%, 0.10%, and - 0.47% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and adjusted to implement a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. The US also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small Chinese parcels' international mail from 120% to 54% and revoked the measure to increase the specific tax from $100 per piece to $200 [2]. - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. From January to April, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month, remaining at a historically low level [2]. - On May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% deposit reserve ratio) and lowered the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - More than 20 institutions are ready to apply for the issuance of floating - rate new products, and products with "low fees + absolute returns + performance rewards" and "long - term stock investment + regular dividends" are the most concerned [2]. - As of the end of April, the total scale of 14 bank wealth - management companies reached 23.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from the end of March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [2]. - The construction of the railway from Ganqimaodu in China to Gashuun Sukhait in Mongolia officially started. China Telecom Quantum Group launched the world's first distributed cryptographic system integrating QKD and PQC, indicating a systematic technological breakthrough in China's new - generation quantum - secure infrastructure [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices showed mixed trends. The previous trading day, the stock index rose, with the non - banking financial sector rising significantly and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The whole - market trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 rose 1.75%, IF2505 rose 1.31%, IC2505 rose 0.57%, and IM2505 rose 0.49%. On May 13, the margin trading balance increased by 1.344 billion yuan to 1798.404 billion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite has increased, leading to a decline in Treasury bond futures prices and potentially greater short - term fluctuations. The cancellation of some additional tariffs and the establishment of an economic and trade consultation mechanism have eased market避险 sentiment. Meanwhile, the market capital situation continues to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors show certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract dropped by 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts changed, with some contracts seeing a decrease in open interest, such as the T2506 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.92bp to 1.68%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.96bp [2]. - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased by 1.1bp, 1.03bp, and 1.2bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose by 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose by 5.5bp [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 14, the central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. Starting from May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, 4bp lower than the previous month [3]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: China adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US, and the US adjusted the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [3]. 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Trends**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US Treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.672%. The market capital situation continued to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors showed certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3].