Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract dropping 0.07% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US, German, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields all increased. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized recently amidst the high - level volatility of equities [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of all Treasury bond futures contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.03% to - 0.22%. Open interest for some contracts increased, such as TF2512, T2512, etc., while others decreased. Trading volumes varied across contracts [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day and DR007 rates increased by 0.9bp and 1.2bp respectively, while GC007 decreased by 5.3bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 1.52bp to 1.85%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 35.58bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields increased by 5bp, 1bp, and 0.4bp respectively [2]. Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 195 billion yuan after 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - **Trade News**: Regarding the TikTok issue, China maintains a consistent stance. China hopes the EU will not weaponize tariffs and will eliminate market barriers. China initiated an anti - dumping investigation on relevant EU pork products at the request of domestic industries [3]. - **Bond Issuance**: The second batch of 14科创债 ETFs raised a total of 40.786 billion yuan, and after their listing in late September, the bond ETF's scale will exceed 600 billion yuan. The issuance scale of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [3]. - **Business Ranking**: The "2025 China Service Industry Enterprises 500" list was released. The total operating income of the listed enterprises in 2024 reached 51.1 trillion yuan, and the average operating income exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time [3]. - **Employment Data**: US initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 last week, the largest drop in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3]. Industry Information and Strategy - **Interest Rate Trends**: On September 18, money market interest rates mostly increased. US Treasury bond yields generally rose, while the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond in China decreased to 1.77%. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, US Treasury bond yields rebounded [3]. - **Market Environment**: Shibor short - term varieties increased due to tax - period disturbances, and the money market tightened. Savings continued to flow to non - bank sectors in August, M1 growth reached a new high since January 2023, but consumption, production, real - estate investment, and sales showed weak trends [3]. - **Policy Outlook**: With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized during the high - level volatility of equities [3].

Group 1: Market Data - The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 825.86 and 828.08 respectively; the current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9869.00 and 9902.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 1.76 and 1.26 respectively, with price change rates of 0.21% and 0.15% respectively; the price changes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 61.00 and 67.00 respectively, with price change rates of 0.62% and 0.68% respectively [2] - The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 87731 and 228640 respectively; the open interest of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 144039 and 395854 respectively [2] - The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 192704 and 221255 respectively; the trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 301538 and 646031 respectively [2] - The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are -1.33 and -3.55 respectively; the spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are -58.00 and -91.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/ounce) are -5.72, -2.62, and -15.12 respectively, with price change rates of -0.69%, -0.31%, and -0.41% respectively; the price change of Shanghai Silver T+D is -65.00, with a price change rate of -0.66%; the price change of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 0.16, with a price change rate of 0.38% [2] - The current values of the differences between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2510, and between Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2510 are 2.22 and 33 respectively; the current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) is 84.04; the current values of the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.04 and 7.30 respectively [2] - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 56,430 kg and 1,203,523 kg respectively; the current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 39,280,534 and 524,086,477 respectively [2] - The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and USD/CNY are 97.3696, 6631.96, 4.11, 66.97, and 7.1087 respectively; their changes are 0.34%, 0.48%, 1.23%, 0.01%, and 0.09% respectively [2] - The current holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each; the current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In July, non-US investors increased their holdings of US Treasuries, with the total holdings reaching a record high. Japan's holdings of US Treasuries increased by $3.8 billion to $1.1514 trillion; the UK's holdings increased by $41.3 billion to $899.3 billion, reaching a record high. Mainland China's holdings decreased by $25.7 billion to $730.7 billion; Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion to $381.4 billion, the lowest since April [3] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The expected number was 240,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 264,000. Although the number of initial claims decreased, the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3] Group 3: Core Views and Strategies - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a risk - management move, in line with market expectations. Only newly - appointed Fed Governor Milan supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [4] - The dot - plot shows that the Fed's current neutral expectation is to cut interest rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and to below 3.5% next year. Under Trump's continuous pressure, the Fed's stance on rate cuts remains cautious [4] - The US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (the forecast was 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. The CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core inflation remained at 3.1% year - on - year [4] - Multiple data this month show a weak employment market in the US economy, especially the non - farm payrolls of 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. Trade negotiations have shown multiple developments, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The market is still observing the continuation of the impact of tariff inflation [4] - The US fiscal deficit and debt continue to expand, and central banks represented by China continue to increase their gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold are still clear. Due to the lack of expectations for recession - style rate cuts, attention should be paid to the adjustment of profit - taking after the short - term expectations are fulfilled [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - **International News**: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].

2025年09月18日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.372 | 105.890 | 105.760 | 108.155 | 107.855 | 115.88 | 115.54 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.414 | 102.348 | 105.795 | 105.680 | 108.000 | 107.680 | 115.48 | 115.14 | | | 涨跌 | 0.042 | 0.024 | 0.095 | 0.080 | 0.155 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of multiple factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience a wide - range and weakening fluctuation in the short term as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.84% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed signals: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,974 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 71.13 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 150,950 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,675 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.76% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 24.36 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 48,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,175 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,690 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 1.74 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 483,775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,790 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 870 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 189.18 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 226,434 tons, with a daily increase of 1,950 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 46.43 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 227,850 tons, with a daily increase of 2,225 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 272,540 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,320 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,390 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 167.02 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,645 tons, with no daily change [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, raised the estimated crush to 2.555 billion bushels, and lowered the estimated export to 1.685 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in the 2025/2026 US soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels. The report's impact on the market was neutral to bearish. With the improvement signal of Sino-US trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the short - term Dalian meal is expected to be under pressure [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weakly volatile. The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.35% month - on - month, exports decreased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month. The bearish impact of the data has been mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia has reduced the concern about production, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal has brought certainty to the oil market. Oils are expected to fluctuate overall [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8366, 9424, and 9999 respectively, with changes of - 52, - 58, and - 54, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the previous day's closing prices were 3002 and 2490, with changes of - 39 and - 40, and percentage changes of - 1.28% and - 1.58% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 spreads were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current values of M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared with previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4383 ringgit per ton, 1049 cents per bushel, 53 cents per pound, and 286 dollars per ton respectively. The changes were - 42, - 5, - 1, and - 1, and the percentage changes were - 0.95%, - 0.48%, - 2.58%, and - 0.21% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8580 and 8700, with percentage changes of - 0.69% and - 0.57% respectively. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9560 and 9450, with a percentage change of 0.53%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10250, with a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 214 and 334, the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was 136 and 26, and the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 251 [2]. Import and Crush - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 280, - 28, - 188, 211, 827, and 879 respectively, compared with previous values of - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 24,544, 1,570, 8,202, 29,065, 10,104, and 0 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous values for soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, and with a decrease of 110 for rapeseed meal [2]. Industry Information - Palm oil: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from September 1 - 15 was 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease compared with the same period last month according to AmSpec [3]. - Protein meal: The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. Sino - US trade relations showed a positive signal, and the domestic supply of soybean meal was expected to increase [3]. - Oils: The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. The bearish impact of the data was mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia reduced production concerns, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal brought certainty to the oil market [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is consolidating. In the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable. Fundamentally, the inventory of PE is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the chemical products, and the market has rebounded. With the Fed starting an interest - rate cut cycle and potential for two more cuts this year, the international macro - environment may remain accommodative. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand for polyolefins may support the market to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7289, and 7299 respectively, with price changes of 11, 14, and - 10, and percentage changes of 0.15%, 0.19%, and - 0.14%. The trading volumes were 146481, 9789, and 15, and the open interests were 520256, 38553, and 32, with changes of - 3780, 193, and 1. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6982, 7017, and 6984 respectively, with price changes of 12, 17, and 7, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.24%, and 0.10%. The trading volumes were 183494, 13200, and 371, and the open interests were 570841, 67265, and 1051, with changes of - 10461, 3640, and 201 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, - 10, and 54, compared to previous values of - 41, - 34, and 75. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 35, 33, and 2, compared to previous values of - 30, 23, and 7 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2377 yuan/ton, 6615 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, mostly unchanged from the previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, for LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - **Crude Oil Prices**: On Wednesday (September 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.05 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.95 per barrel, down $0.52 or 0.76% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the market entered a high-level consolidation phase after continuous upward movement. Due to increased hedging demand of some funds at high levels, there was a certain divergence between long and short forces, leading to significant fluctuations in stock index. However, from a long - term perspective, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are mostly composed of dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4553.20, 4541.80, 4518.20, and 4492.80 respectively, with increases of 36.20, 34.80, 31.60, and 30.20. The trading volumes were 72782.00, 20655.00, 57612.00, and 11450.00 respectively, and the positions were 61553.00, 33842.00, 133521.00, and 44996.00 respectively. The position changes were - 17674.00, 7608.00, 6720.00, and 666.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2956.20, 2955.60, 2955.80, and 2958.40 respectively, with increases of 5.80, 6.20, 5.00, and 3.80. The trading volumes were 29648.00, 8442.00, 23042.00, and 3627.00 respectively, and the positions were 28332.00, 12791.00, 52206.00, and 11442.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4903.00, 3127.00, 5476.00, and 321.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7252.40, 7197.00, 7081.00, and 6916.00 respectively, with increases of 90.40, 93.40, 86.80, and 79.80. The trading volumes were 67086.00, 24005.00, 56441.00, and 16292.00 respectively, and the positions were 56442.00, 40143.00, 111083.00, and 44403.00 respectively. The position changes were - 20158.00, 6496.00, 1443.00, and 1399.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7547.00, 7480.20, 7331.60, and 7126.20 respectively, with increases of 93.00, 96.00, 99.40, and 99.40. The trading volumes were 122397.00, 36291.00, 101376.00, and 25839.00 respectively, and the positions were 89169.00, 57923.00, 158963.00, and 73293.00 respectively. The position changes were - 23457.00, 11171.00, 9900.00, and 1807.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 11.40, - 0.60, - 55.40, and - 66.80 respectively, compared with previous values of - 9.40, 0.80, - 57.80, and - 70.00 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4551.02, 2952.78, 7260.04, and 7554.81 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.17, 0.96, and 0.95. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 235.72, 56.67, 258.26, and 301.71 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6084.54, 1550.34, 4455.49, and 4932.96 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, industrial, optional consumption, and information technology industries had increases of 1.06%, 2.13%, 1.72%, and 0.76% respectively. The raw materials, main consumption, real - estate finance industries had decreases of - 0.13%, - 0.58%, and - 0.10% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF quarter after next - CSI 300 were 2.18, - 9.22, - 32.82, and - 58.22 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH quarter after next - SSE 50 were 3.42, 2.82, 3.02, and 5.62 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC quarter after next - CSI 500 were - 7.64, - 63.04, - 179.04, and - 344.04 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM quarter after next - CSI 1000 were - 7.81, - 74.61, - 223.21, and - 428.61 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3876.34, 13215.46, 8042.44, and 3147.35 respectively, with increases of 0.37%, 1.16%, 0.99%, and 1.95% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 26908.39, 44790.38, 6600.35, and 23359.18 respectively, with increases of 1.78%, - 0.25%, - 0.10%, and 0.13% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% probability of another rate cut in October [2] - **China's Policies**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of AI in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, there will be over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [2] - **China - ASEAN Relations**: Vice - President Han Zheng put forward four suggestions at the 22nd China - ASEAN Expo to strengthen cooperation between China and ASEAN [2] 6. Industry Information - **Cybersecurity**: The deputy director of the National Cyberspace Administration of China called on leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas such as chips [2] - **Pig Industry**: A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held to control the sow production capacity and regulate the pig supply for next year [2] - **Intelligent Connected Vehicles**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on mandatory national standards for combined driving assistance of intelligent connected vehicles [2] - **Energy Storage**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a ten - year development roadmap for new energy storage technologies, aiming for an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, over 240 million kilowatts by 2030, and over 300 million kilowatts by 2035 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US consumer spending remains strong due to salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The gold market is likely to be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments. The copper and zinc prices may fluctuate within a certain range. The oil market will focus on OPEC's production increase. The stock index is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the bond price is stabilizing in the short term. Different commodities in the energy, chemical, metal, black, agricultural, and shipping sectors have their own market trends based on supply - demand relationships and other factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - On September 16th, the US President Trump said he would talk with President Xi on Friday, and the US Treasury Secretary confirmed it. The TikTok issue has reached a relevant agreement, and the two leaders will make a decision during the call. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information to provide [4][5] 3.1.2 Domestic News - On September 16th, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects to increase high - quality service supply [5] 3.1.3 Industry News - On September 12th, the China Real Estate Association's commercial housing direct - selling platform was launched, with 15 initial signing units covering real estate development, financial services, and industry associations [6] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The table shows the daily gains and losses of various foreign market varieties on September 15th and 16th, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day's stock index was differentiated. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous rise. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [9][10] - **Treasury Bond**: It opened low and closed high. The central bank increased net investment, but the capital market tightened due to tax payment. The US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term bond price stabilized [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.56%. Eight countries decided to adjust the daily production increase in October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12] - **Methanol**: The night session fell 0.46%. The domestic methanol production and inventory situation is not optimistic, and it is short - term bearish [13] - **Rubber**: It showed a volatile trend. The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][15] - **Polyolefin**: The price rose and then fell. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor, and the short - term terminal demand recovery may support the price [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future consumption and policies need attention [17] 3.3.3 Metal - **Precious Metal**: Gold and silver rose and then fell. US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and gold has long - term driving factors. It may be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments [2][18] - **Copper**: The night session rose 0.02%. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mixed, so the price may fluctuate within a range [3][19] - **Zinc**: The night session rose 0.16%. The smelting profit is positive, and the short - term supply may be excessive, with the price likely to fluctuate weakly within a range [20][21] 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night session was strong. The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and the policy expectation provides support, so the price is in a high - level shock [22] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night session of soybean meal was weakly volatile, and rapeseed meal rose slightly. The USDA report was neutral - bearish, and the market expects improved domestic supply, so the price is expected to be weakly volatile [23] - **Edible Oil**: The night session was bullish. The Malaysian palm oil data's bearish impact was digested, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [24] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market has supply - demand contradictions. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25] - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market has a new - cotton acquisition focus. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [26][27] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC was volatile. As the National Day approaches, the shipping companies' freight - rate reduction competition intensifies, and the short - term price depends on the decline rate of spot freight [28]

20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜： | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.02%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | 可能短期区 | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.16%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...