Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2506 contract dropping by 0.49% and a decrease in open interest. There were arbitrage opportunities due to the relatively high IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts. Short - term market interest rates generally decreased, and key - term Treasury bond yields showed mixed changes. With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined with the possibility of increased short - term volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally fell. For example, the T2506 contract dropped 0.49%, and the open interest of some contracts decreased while others increased. The trading volume also varied among different contracts [2]. - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of some contracts changed. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 was - 0.216, compared to the previous value of - 0.192 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2.82bp to 1.66%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 18.22bp [2]. - **Overseas Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields all increased, by 8bp, 4bp, and 3.5bp respectively [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 12, the central bank conducted 430 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 430 billion yuan [3]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement. Both sides agreed to adjust tariffs and take measures to ease trade tensions [3]. - **Automobile Industry**: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [3]. - **Japanese Bond Market**: The yield of Japanese 30 - year Treasury bonds reached a nearly 25 - year high, and the demand for Japanese 10 - year bond sales was weak [3]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to lower drug prices, but analysts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rates**: Money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively increased [3]. Comments and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations provided liquidity, and the market risk appetite increased due to the Sino - US talks. The prices of Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term volatility may increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the polyolefin market rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations and low valuations, there is resistance to downward price movements. After the China-US meeting over the weekend, the commodity market is generally positive. The rebound in international crude oil prices has strengthened support for plastics. PE and PP have been falling for some time, and prices may rebound in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7026, 7282, and 7090 respectively, with price increases of 115, 52, and 114, and increases of 1.66%, 0.72%, and 1.63% respectively. Trading volumes were 49493, 1358, and 471649 respectively, and open interest was 75486, 3255, and 540833 respectively. Open interest changes were 5747, -1193, and -3433 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -256, 192, and 64 respectively [2] - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6978, 7100, and 7030 respectively, with price increases of 92, 24, and 63, and increases of 1.34%, 0.34%, and 0.90% respectively. Trading volumes were 25016, 1406, and 399837 respectively, and open interest was 43321, 3607, and 457686 respectively. Open interest changes were 4692, -815, and -19019 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -122, 70, and 52 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2279 yuan/ton, 6595 yuan/ton, 635 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges for LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges for PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Monday (May 12), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [2]

| | 1、 据美国农业部，5月美国2025/2026年度大豆产量预期为43.4亿蒲式耳，市场预期为43.38亿 | | --- | --- | | | 蒲式耳。5月美国2025/2026年度大豆期末库存预期为2.95亿蒲式耳，市场预期为3.62亿蒲式耳。 | | | 5月美国2025/2026年度大豆单产预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩，市场预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩。2、美 | | 行业 | 国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月11日当周，美国大豆种植率为 | | 信息 | 48%，高于市场预期的47%，此前一周为30%，去年同期为34%，五年均值为37%。 美国玉米种植率 | | | 为62%，高于市场预期的60%，此前一周为40%，去年同期为47%，五年均值为56%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆粕偏强震荡，菜粕震荡收跌。近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种 | | | 工作的推进。USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中 | | | 美双方在瑞士进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善美豆期价明显反弹。国内 | | | 方面， ...

| | 20250512申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 | 幅波动 | | | 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Friday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined. However, due to cost - side fluctuations, polyolefins at a low - valuation state resist downward movement. After the Sino - US meeting over the weekend, attention should be paid to subsequent energy - chemical and tariff policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6911, 7230, and 6976 respectively, with price drops of - 37, - 60, and - 40, and percentage drops of - 0.53%, - 0.82%, and - 0.57%. The trading volumes were 19578, 525, and 263134, and the open interests were 69739, 4448, and 544266, with increases of 2720, - 465, and 8999 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 319, 254, and 65, compared to previous values of - 342, 274, and 68 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6886, 7076, and 6967 respectively, with price drops of - 18, - 6, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.08%, and - 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14072, 777, and 254390, and the open interests were 38629, 4422, and 476705, with increases of 2414, - 398, and 10804 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 190, 109, and 81, compared to previous values of - 178, 97, and 81 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2231 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (May 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.02 per barrel, up $1.11 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.89 - $61.45. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.91 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.70% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.84 - $64.24 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks reached important consensus, which will have a significant impact on the global economic situation and market sentiment [1]. - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects concerns about economic prospects, unemployment, and inflation, posing uncertainties to the market [1][3]. - China's continuous release of policy incentives demonstrates its determination and ability to address economic pressures, adding stability to the global economy [1]. - For major investment varieties: - Crude oil prices are expected to be affected by trade agreements and supply - demand dynamics, with attention on sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold may enter a correction phase in the short - term but remains strong overall due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand [3][20]. - Stock index futures are likely to break upward due to policy incentives and low valuation levels, and option strategies can be used to capture trends [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [6]. - **Domestic News**: 27 Chinese cities had a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and most of them had a GDP growth rate of over 5.4% in Q1 [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The table shows the daily returns of various overseas market products from May 8th to May 9th, including the US S&P 500, German DAX Index, etc., with specific price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices fell slightly. The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. Policy incentives and Sino - US tariff negotiations are expected to boost the market, and stock index futures are bullish, while option strategies can be used [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut increased market liquidity. External factors and seasonal changes affected the economy. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones may fluctuate more [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose due to the "breakthrough" in the UK - US trade agreement. China's crude oil imports increased slightly, and the number of US online drilling oil wells decreased [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, while the overall methanol plant's开工 rate increased. Coastal inventory was at a low level, and imports were expected to increase. Methanol is short - term bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber's trend was volatile. Domestic and Thai rubber production areas were opening for harvest. Inventory was increasing, and tariff policies affected the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market was weak. Consumption declined, but cost fluctuations provided some support. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of Sino - US talks [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures were weak. Their inventories were under pressure, and the de - stocking process would take time [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell after rising due to the easing of tariffs. The Fed's wait - and - see attitude and economic data were key factors. Gold may enter a correction but remains strong overall [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable downstream demand affected the market. Copper prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and exchange rates [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Processing fees increased, and domestic demand was stable. The market expected better supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. Overseas tariff policies were unstable, and domestic monetary policy was loose. The market was expected to be weakly volatile [23]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose at night. Tight supply in Indonesia and tariff policies affected prices. Nickel prices may fluctuate in a wide range [24][25]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The cost of coking coal decreased, and the supply increased. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and there was an expectation of a price cut. Attention should be paid to support levels [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weakly volatile at night, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. Supply and demand dynamics and Sino - US relations affected the market [27]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal prices were weak at night. US soybean exports were under pressure, and domestic supply was expected to increase [28]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week. High prices squeezed profits, and there was an expectation of reserve auctions. The market entered a shock phase [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton demand was weak after the May Day holiday. New cotton planting in Xinjiang was basically completed. The market was in a shock phase, waiting for new demand channels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell on Friday. SCFI European line prices decreased. Supply was excessive, and the market was expected to be in a shock pattern [31][32].

2025年05月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | 1、央行公告称，5月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了770亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量770亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量770亿元。Wind数据显示，当日无逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放770亿元。本周央行公开市场将有 | | | 8361亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期0亿元、4050亿元、1955亿元、1586亿元、770亿元。此外，本周 | | | 四还有1250亿元MLF到期。上周央行公开市场累计进行了8361亿元逆回购操作，上周共有16178亿元逆回购到期，因此 | | | 上周央行公开市场净回笼7817亿元。 2、中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰在出席中方代表 | | | 团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。 | | | 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合声明。何立 | | | 峰说，在当前形势下， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and the palm oil market is affected by the entry into the production - increasing season, with a weakening fundamental situation compared to other oils. The export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure, and the domestic supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter is expected to be sufficient, which will continue to put pressure on the price. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil main contract closed at 7786, with a price increase of 26 and a percentage increase of 0.34%. [2] - **Spread and Ratio - Spread**: The current and previous values of spreads and ratio - spreads for various futures are given, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil being 54 currently and 62 previously. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil closed at 3795 ringgit/ton, with a price decrease of 94 and a percentage decrease of - 2.42%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The current spot prices, percentage changes, and spot basis of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, etc. are shown. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8180, with a percentage increase of 0.12% and a spot basis of 394. [2] - **Spot Spread**: The current and previous values of spot spreads between different products are presented, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 480 currently and - 550 previously. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are given. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 769, and the previous value was - 838. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are provided. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 5,355, and the previous value was also 5,355. [2] 3.6 Industry Information and Comment - **Industry Information**: Malaysian palm oil export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and a US private exporter reported a sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan. [3] - **Protein Meal Comment**: The night - session soybean meal was weak. Before the substantial adjustment of tariffs, the export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will put pressure on prices. [3] - **Oil Comment**: The night - session soybean and palm oils were weakly volatile, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. The domestic short - term supply of soy - based oils is tight, but the supply of imported soybeans in the second quarter is sufficient. The fundamental situation of palm oil is weaker than that of other oils. [3]

| | 20250509申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短期锌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK reducing tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports. The EU plans to sue the US at the WTO and impose countermeasures on $950 billion worth of US imports [1]. - The market risk sentiment has improved due to the potential first tariff trade agreement. However, concerns remain about the escalation of tariff scale and geopolitical conflicts [1][20]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, are expected to support the market and maintain a loose liquidity environment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Alumina**: The night session of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.46%. Overseas, Trump's tariff stance is inconsistent; domestically, the monetary environment is loosening. Alumina prices are falling, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Short - term Shanghai aluminum may be weak and volatile [2][24]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night session rose 1.71%. US crude inventories decreased last week. Some US producers may cut spending, and US oil production may have peaked. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but low prices may provide room for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - **Shipping**: EC opened low and rebounded, with the 06 contract down 3.64%. Shipping rates in May are mostly stable or slightly decreased. The supply of European routes is in excess due to the spill - over of US route capacity. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4][35]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: US initial jobless claims last week decreased more than expected, indicating a stable labor market despite increasing tariff risks [5]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce's press conference highlighted China's foreign trade resilience. China is firm on tariff issues, opposes unilateralism, and promotes multilateral cooperation [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law by breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services [7]. c. Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index increased, ICE Brent crude oil rose, while London gold and LME metals mostly fell [8]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose. A - shares also increased due to central bank policies. Short - term stock indexes may show a trend, and a wide - straddle option buying strategy is recommended [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations and policy adjustments have loosened market liquidity. The focus is on the progress of tariff negotiations [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose 0.14%. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased. Short - term methanol is expected to be bullish [13][14]. - **Rubber**: RU slightly declined. Domestic and Thai rubber production is expected to increase. Affected by US tariff policies, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices were weak. Consumption has peaked, but cost fluctuations provide some support. Attention is paid to the implementation of stimulus policies [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures were weak, and soda ash futures fluctuated. Both are in a period of inventory digestion, and the process will take time [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are under pressure due to weak demand and limited cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is facing pressure due to rising port inventories and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined. The potential trade agreement has improved risk sentiment, but geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases support gold prices. Gold may continue to be strong and consolidate [20][21]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable domestic demand support copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Domestic demand is stable, and the market expects an increase in supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and downstream procurement demand support nickel prices, but stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased in March, and inventory increased. Upstream mine prices are weakening, and lithium prices may decline further [26][27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by steel mill复产, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It may be supported in the short term and weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: Steel supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Demand is expected to weaken due to the rainy season and overseas tariffs. Steel prices may be weak and volatile [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices were weak, affected by coke prices and increasing supply [30]. - **Coke**: Coke prices were weak, with the failure of the second - round price increase and the expected price cut. It is affected by steel demand [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn may correct in the short term. Supply is tight at high prices, and there are concerns about import reserve auctions. It should be treated cautiously bullish [32]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are volatile due to economic uncertainties. Zhengzhou cotton is also fluctuating, and the market is waiting for new demand channels [33]. - **Shipping Index**: The European container shipping market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to supply - demand imbalances and tariff policies [35].