Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The September market trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high-level consolidation phase after a continuous rise. In the long run, China's capital market is at the beginning of a strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology growth components, are more offensive with large fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend blue-chip components, are more defensive with small fluctuations and relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from -0.11% to -0.25%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest increasing in some contracts and decreasing in others [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also declined, with decreases ranging from -0.24% to -0.34%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.55% to 0.65%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest generally increasing [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from -0.44% to -0.72%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of different contracts had different changes compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index decreased by -0.15%, the CSI 500 index decreased by -0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by -0.24%. Other major domestic and overseas indexes also had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different price changes, with some industries rising and some falling [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes had different values and changes compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic and overseas major indexes, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, etc., had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including 19 measures in five aspects, and proposed to build pilot cities for new consumption formats [2] - Trump said he would talk to Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had no specific information to provide [2] - The central bank governor pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and mutual restraint of several sovereign currencies [2] - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit in China" is a misreading, and the policy only optimizes the review process [2] 6. Industry Information - A ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan in supporting power base investment [2] - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [2] - Suzhou released an "AI +" urban action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises by the end of 2026, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the core scale of the intelligent economy industry [2] - The China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was officially launched, with 15 initial signing units [2] - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was officially launched [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - For protein meal, the night - session of soybean meal showed weak fluctuations, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With expectations of improved domestic supply, short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. For oils, the night - session of oils showed strong performance. Despite the lower - than - expected August palm oil exports from Malaysia, the bearish impact has been mostly digested. Due to flood concerns in Sabah and strong Indian imports, short - term oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8418, 9482, and 10053 respectively, with price changes of 42, 60, and 153, and percentage changes of 0.50%, 0.64%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the closing prices were 3041, 2530, and 8844, with price changes of - 1, 21, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.03%, 0.84%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87, compared to previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared to previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4383 ringgit/ton, 1043 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 286 dollars/ton. The price changes were - 42, 6, 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 0.95%, 0.55%, 1.72%, and 0.07% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8640 and 8750, with percentage changes of 0.70% and 0.69%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9510 and 9400, with percentage changes of 0.85% and 0.86% [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 590, compared to a previous value of - 610. The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 222 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - **Profits**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992, compared to previous values of - 287, 13, - 176, 203, 722, and 891 [2]. Industry Information - **Brazilian Exports and Production**: Brazil's September soybean export forecast rose to 753 million tons from 743 million tons the previous week. September soybean meal export forecast rose to 219 million tons from 211 million tons, and corn export forecast reached 712 million tons from 696 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remained at 17030 million tons, 2025 export forecast remained at 10950 million tons, and 2025 crushing forecast was raised to 5850 million tons [3]. MPOb Report - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's August palm oil production was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease. The inventory at the end of August was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The polyolefin market saw a rally followed by a decline. From a fundamental perspective, the polyolefin spot market is still driven by supply and demand. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, it provides support for chemical products. The market also rebounded after continuous declines. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand may support the market to oscillate and rebound. Future attention should be paid to the potential rebound after the market stabilizes and the situation of the Fed meeting this week [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 7234, up 2 from the day before with a 0.03% increase, trading volume was 256083, and open interest was 524036 with a decrease of 30939. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 41 (previous value - 20) [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 6970, up 4 from the day before with a 0.06% increase, trading volume was 324397, and open interest was 581302 with a decrease of 34852. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 30 (previous value - 22) [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures were at 2377 yuan/ton (previous value 2398), Shandong propylene was at 6575 yuan/ton (previous value 6600), South China propane was at 595 dollars/ton (unchanged), PP recycled materials were at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and North China powder was at 6750 yuan/ton (previous value 6700) [2]. - **Spot Market**: LL in the East China market was priced at 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7700), and PP in the East China market was priced at 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day [2].

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金价上行，双焦强势 据央视新闻，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢说，关于 TikTok 问 题，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原 则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中美双方就以合 作方式妥善解决 TikTok 相关问题等达成了基本框架共识。8 月社会消费品零售 同比增速放缓至 3.4%，8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，装备制造业和高技 术制造业增势较好。1-8 月全国固定资产投资增长 0.5%，制造业投资增长 5.1%。 1-8 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12.9%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4.7%。 重点品种：焦煤、黄金、玻璃 焦煤：昨日夜盘双焦主力合约延续强势，焦煤持仓环比明显增加。从上周公布的 钢联数据来看，累库仍由螺纹贡献、热卷库存环比微幅下降，整体表需环比增加、 增量主要源于热卷，建材与板材之间进一步分化，铁水产量快速恢复，将进一步 加剧成材的供应的压力，叠加第二轮焦炭提降预期的出现、成材利润持续走缩、 以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势形成压力，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, and weak real estate [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and weak real estate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV installations (future growth may slow), automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 81,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,189 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 61.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 153,950 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,235 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,982 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 26.76 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 50,525 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,925 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,705 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 4.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 485,275 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,500 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 460 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 185.68 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 225,084 tons with a daily increase of 1,932 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 47.54 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 229,575 tons with a daily decrease of 3,050 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 275,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 34,680 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 132.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,620 tons with a daily increase of 235 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The September trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The divergence between long and short forces due to increased hedging demand of some funds at high levels brings greater fluctuations to stock index futures. However, in the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with higher volatility but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with lower volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts showed different changes, with the next - month contract rising by 2.20, the next - quarter contract falling by 2.20, and the far - quarter contract falling by 8.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 73,627.00, and the open interest decreased by 17,133.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts generally declined, with the current - month contract falling by 7.40. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 31,164.00, and the open interest decreased by 5,440.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts all decreased, with the current - month contract falling by 38.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 67,687.00, and the open interest decreased by 20,183.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts also decreased, with the current - month contract falling by 32.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 107,983.00, and the open interest decreased by 19,043.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the IF next - month minus current - month spread was - 8.00 (previous value: - 6.20) [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indices**: The CSI 300 index rose by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index fell by - 0.20%, the CSI 500 index fell by - 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by - 0.10%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index also had different performance, with the industrial sector rising by 2.14% and the real - estate and finance sector falling by - 0.62% [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indices changed, for example, the IF current - month minus CSI 300 basis was - 5.26 (previous value: 1.20) [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by - 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index rose by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.52% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22%, the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.89%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.47%, and the DAX Index rose by 0.21% [1] 5. Macro Information - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation. China's economic data in August showed that the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - In August, the new - house prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the decrease in second - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. The State Council issued a document to strengthen the comprehensive supervision of the tourism market. 17 car companies will implement the initiative on payment of supplier accounts. Guangzhou plans to build at least 300 V2G piles by the end of 2025 and launched a car - consumption promotion activity. Henan aims to make the AI industry scale exceed 160 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market rebounded from the bottom. The spot prices of linear LL remained stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot prices of drawn PP remained stable for Sinopec and some were reduced by 100 by PetroChina. Fundamentally, the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemical products. The market may rebound after the stop - fall, and attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve meeting this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7232, 7252, and 7269 respectively, with increases of 63, 71, and 219 and increases of 0.88%, 0.99%, and 3.11% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6966, 6988, and 6967 respectively, with increases of 53, 52, and 180 and increases of 0.77%, 0.75%, and 2.65% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 264026, 11216, and 49 respectively, and the open interests were 554975, 37371, and 19 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 6135, 1505, and 19 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 297850, 13616, and 288 respectively, and the open interests were 616154, 57544, and 279 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 27201, 2816, and 279 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 20, - 17, and 37 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, 131, and - 119. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 22, 21, and 1 respectively, compared with previous values of - 23, 149, and - 126 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2398 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 595 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared with the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (September 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.30 per barrel, up $0.61 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, up $0.45 or 0.67% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.78 - $67.85 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance in the previous trading session, with the T2512 contract rising 0.09% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, while key - term Treasury bond yields in China mostly decreased. Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US and Germany decreased, while that in Japan increased. Considering multiple factors such as macro - news, market interest rates, and economic data, it is expected that the price of Treasury bond futures will remain weak [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: In the previous trading session, for TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, TF2603, T2512, T2603, TL2512, and TL2603, the price changes were - 0.004, 0.012, 0.055, 0.030, 0.095, 0.075, 0.130, and 0.160 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.03%, 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.11%, and 0.14%. The T2512 contract rose 0.09% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, TF2603, T2512, T2603, TL2512, and TL2603 was 66544, 6037, 117782, 18086, 211649, 24361, 141755, and 20570 respectively. The volume was 24122, 1042, 54025, 2176, 94600, 6504, 111024, and 14063 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1400, 265, - 952, 57, 3776, 688, - 554, and 2231 respectively [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The current and previous cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.060 (previous 0.076), 0.120 (previous 0.0950), 0.315 (previous 0.2950), and 0.310 (previous 0.3400) respectively [2]. - **IRR Analysis**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: In the previous trading session, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR7 - day, DR007, and GC007 rates increased by 1bp, 1.8bp, and 2.3bp respectively [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China mostly decreased. The 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01bp to 1.86%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.48bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US and Germany decreased by 1bp, while that in Japan increased by 0.9bp [2]. Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 15, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations and 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. After offsetting the maturing reverse repurchases, the net injection was 88.5 billion yuan. It is possible that the MLF will be rolled over with an increased amount this month, and Treasury bond trading operations may resume [3]. - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks**: From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [3]. - **Economic Data**: In August, China's industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year. From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1% and real estate development investment decreasing by 12.9%. In August, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a mixed performance [3]. - **US Economic Situation**: US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates. The US unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, and the New York Fed manufacturing index in September dropped sharply, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [3]. Industry Information and Strategy - **Market Interest Rates**: On September 15, money market interest rates showed mixed performance. The weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending had different changes [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The current stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and the new regulations on fund redemptions also affect the market. It is expected that the price of Treasury bond futures will remain weak [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is entering a "central bank super week", with the market generally expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time to address the weak labor market. Gold and silver may show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches, while copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation [1][2][3]. - The power equipment industry has a good growth outlook, with the traditional power equipment aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 6% from 2025 - 2026, and the new - energy equipment expecting stable or increasing revenue [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: US stocks closed mixed. The Dow Jones fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.05%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.44% to a new high. Vaccine stocks declined, while most large - tech stocks rose [4]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang deployed measures to promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening support [5]. - **Industry News**: Three departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for stable growth, with specific targets for traditional and new - energy equipment [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the daily return data of multiple overseas products from September 11th to 12th, such as the FTSE China A50 futures, the US dollar index, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the stock index showed differentiation in the previous trading day. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of treasury bonds strengthened, but due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, economic data, and the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, the treasury - bond futures prices are expected to remain weak [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.59% on Friday night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude - oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.17% on Friday night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [12]. - **Rubber**: The natural - rubber futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [13]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market remained weak. The inventory of PE and PP is gradually being digested, and the focus is on the support from downstream procurement [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures oscillated, and the soda - ash futures continued to consolidate. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the autumn consumption and policy changes [15]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold is consolidating at a high level, and silver is strengthening. Inflation data and employment data strengthen the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. Gold has clear long - term drivers, and gold and silver may show a strong trend, but short - term profit - taking adjustments should be noted [2][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.31% on the weekend night session. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. Multiple factors coexist, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [3][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.02% on the weekend night session. The smelting profit has turned positive, and the output is expected to increase. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, while the demand for ternary materials is expected to decline and that for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase. The inventory is being depleted faster. The futures price may maintain high volatility, and the price is under pressure [19]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were strong on Friday night. The steel market shows a differentiation between building materials and plates. The iron - water output is recovering, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [20]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron - ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is being depleted rapidly. The market is expected to be strong and volatile [21]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of steel billets is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. There is a differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the short - term market is expected to adjust [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weak at night. The USDA report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, and the domestic market may be weak and volatile [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The soybean - oil futures rose slightly at night, while the palm - oil and rapeseed - oil futures were weak. The MPOB report shows an increase in Malaysian palm - oil inventory, and the impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policies needs to be monitored [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but is dragged down by import and new - season supply. The short - term trend is bearish [26]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new - cotton purchases and the traditional peak - season demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC futures were weak on Friday, falling 5.27%. The SCFI European - line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is accelerating its decline. The short - term trend depends on the decline rate of the spot freight rate [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Weekend night - session copper prices dropped 0.31%. With tight concentrate supply and pressured smelting profits, smelting output still shows high growth. Multiple factors such as power industry growth, possible slowdown in PV growth, positive growth in auto production and sales, slowing home appliance output growth, and weak real estate make the copper market have both positive and negative factors [2]. - Zinc prices may have a short - term wide - range and weak - trend fluctuation. Weekend night - session zinc prices dropped 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and smelting profits are turning positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price Performance - Copper: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 81,360 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,068 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 73.42 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 154,175 tons, with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,701 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 6.35 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 485,275 tons, with no change [2]. - Zinc: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,956 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 30.17 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 50,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 200 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,330 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,391 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 171.20 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 223,152 tons, with a daily increase of 2,058 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,018 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 41.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 232,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 273,180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,300 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,955 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 34.98 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,385 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].