Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The policies announced at the press conference can significantly boost market confidence in the future. A-shares have shown a notable increase. It is believed that the stock index is likely to choose a direction in the short term and experience a relatively long - lasting trend - based market. The wide - straddle option buying strategy is more suitable for trading [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3845.80, 3816.00, 3755.40, and 3724.60 respectively, with increases of 34.00, 37.80, 35.40, and 36.60. The trading volumes were 31414.00, 58985.00, 13083.00, and 3136.00, and the open interest changes were 211.00, 4027.00, 1284.00, and 392.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2679.00, 2664.80, 2631.60, and 2627.60 respectively, with increases of 18.40, 21.80, 21.20, and 20.00. The trading volumes were 13654.00, 31258.00, 5919.00, and 1142.00, and the open interest changes were - 1206.00, 927.00, - 22.00, and 17.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5752.00, 5660.00, 5515.20, and 5412.80 respectively, with increases of 47.40, 50.40, 41.60, and 38.00. The trading volumes were 25952.00, 43288.00, 11234.00, and 4782.00, and the open interest changes were - 1926.00, - 1908.00, - 438.00, and 516.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6127.60, 6018.80, 5830.00, and 5692.20 respectively, with increases of 75.20, 73.80, 63.60, and 57.60. The trading volumes were 39672.00, 125065.00, 23819.00, and 9124.00, and the open interest changes were - 7842.00, - 8842.00, - 2136.00, and 1228.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 29.80, - 14.20, - 92.00, and - 108.80 respectively, compared to previous values of - 32.20, - 18.40, - 98.00, and - 110.00 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3852.90, 2679.51, 5773.81, and 6158.08 respectively, with increases of 0.56, 0.33, 0.41, and 0.76. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 124.96, 33.45, 136.14, and 203.92, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 2469.87, 634.09, 1870.33, and 2627.40 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications sectors had increases of - 0.31%, - 0.84%, and 2.23% respectively, while the industrial, optional consumption, and main consumption sectors had increases of 0.78%, 0.44%, and 0.84% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 index were - 7.10, - 36.90, - 97.50, and - 128.30 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.43, - 46.63, - 105.83, and - 136.63 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index were - 0.51, - 14.71, - 47.91, and - 51.91 respectively, compared to previous values of - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 index were - 21.81, - 113.81, - 258.61, and - 361.01 respectively, compared to previous values of - 32.09, - 130.09, - 267.69, and - 364.29 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 index were - 30.48, - 139.28, - 328.08, and - 465.88 respectively, compared to previous values of - 46.29, - 156.29, - 337.49, and - 471.49 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3352.00, 10197.66, 6334.29, and 2029.45 respectively, with increases of 0.28%, 0.93%, 0.63%, and 1.65% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 22775.92, 36928.63, 5663.94, and 23352.69 respectively, with increases of 0.37%, 0.41%, 0.58%, and 1.02% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **China - Russia Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the two sides signed a joint statement to further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era. They witnessed the exchange of over 20 bilateral cooperation texts [2] - **China - US Economic and Trade Relations**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US economic and trade high - level talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariff increases if it wants to resolve issues through negotiation [2] - **UK - US Trade Agreement**: The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The US will reduce the tariff on UK - made cars to 10% and the tariff on steel and aluminum to zero [2] - **Private Economy Promotion**: Multiple departments interpreted the Private Economy Promotion Law, stating that a series of supporting institutional mechanisms are being accelerated, and high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan will be launched this year [2] 6. Industry Information - **Huawei**: Huawei held a communication meeting on Hongmeng computer technology and ecosystem, and the "Hongmeng computer" was officially unveiled [2] - **Intellectual Property**: The "2025 Intellectual Property Power Construction Promotion Plan" was issued, clarifying 118 key tasks in seven aspects [2] - **Housing Market**: Four major first - tier cities in China announced a reduction in the provident fund loan interest rate, and Chengdu proposed a new provident fund policy [2] - **Banking Industry**: Some banks have launched time - limited preferential activities for cash installment business, with the annualized interest rate dropping to below 3% [2] 7. Stock Index Outlook - **Market Performance**: The three major US indexes rose, and the stock index rose again the previous day. The communication and national defense and military industry sectors led the gains, while the beauty and care sector led the losses. The total trading volume in the market was 1.32 trillion yuan [2] - **Funding Situation**: On May 7, the margin trading balance increased by 7.22 billion yuan to 1.797293 trillion yuan [2] - **Policy Impact**: The central bank announced a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, providing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity to the market, and a 0.1 - percentage - point reduction in the policy interest rate [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to use the wide - straddle option buying strategy to capture market trends [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond falling to 1.627%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net injection of 1586 billion yuan, and previous double - cuts (lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate by 10bp) pushed short - term bond interest rates to decline and the market liquidity to loosen [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. The yield of US treasury bonds rebounded. China decided to contact the US, and the focus will be on the progress of the negotiations [3]. - Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level declined in April, and the real estate market is not yet stable. It is expected that the central bank will increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and the market liquidity is expected to remain loose, which will continue to support short - term treasury bond futures prices. The current long - short spread is at a historical low, and the compression space is limited. If the tariff negotiation makes progress, the volatility of long - term treasury bond futures prices may increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.19%, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 1.28bp to 1.63% [2]. - **Position and Volume Changes**: The position of T2506 increased, while some contracts had position decreases and increases. For example, the position of TS2506 decreased by 3076, and that of TS2509 increased by 3615 [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate declined 6.7bp, DR007 interest rate declined 6.62bp, and GC007 interest rate declined 7.1bp [2]. - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term treasury bonds generally declined, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 15.53bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 11bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield declined 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 2.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operation**: On May 8, the central bank carried out a 1586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 1586 billion yuan [3]. - **International Relations**: China and Russia deepened their strategic partnership, and China and the US will conduct tariff negotiations. The UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement on some items, and the UK central bank cut interest rates [3]. - **Domestic Policies**: The financial regulatory authority established a mechanism to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and the balance of private enterprise credit loans increased year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec were partially stable while those from PetroChina were stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, the consumption of polyolefins has temporarily reached its peak and started to decline. However, due to the fluctuations in the cost side, polyolefins, being undervalued, have resistance to downward price movements. The press conference held by the State Council Information Office yesterday released many positive signals, and the implementation effectiveness of the stimulus policies should be monitored in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 7290, and 7016 respectively, with price changes of -31, 27, and -30 and percentage changes of -0.44%, 0.37%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 27193, 792, and 274110, and the open interests were 67019, 4913, and 535267, with changes of 8332, -670, and 14775. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -342, 274, and 68, compared to the previous values of -284, 217, and 67 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6904, 7082, and 6985 respectively, with price changes of -48, -33, and -44 and percentage changes of -0.69%, -0.46%, and -0.63%. The trading volumes were 17713, 701, and 266940, and the open interests were 36215, 4820, and 465901, with changes of 5505, -599, and 35997. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -178, 97, and 81, compared to the previous values of -163, 86, and 77 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2243 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges in the South China, East China, and North China markets for LL were 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, and for PP were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges for LL were the same as the current ones, and for PP in the East China and North China markets were 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (May 8th), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, up $1.84 or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.74 - $60.29. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.00 - $63.36 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold may continue to show a relatively strong consolidation performance. Despite the positive impact of the potential first trade agreement on risk sentiment, the market still worries about the escalation of tariff scale. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 784.54, 790.42, 8154.00, and 8221.00 respectively. They have decreased by - 10.26, - 9.96, - 81.00, and - 85.00 with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.29%, - 1.24%, - 0.98%, and - 1.02% compared to the previous closing prices [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 127407, 51018, 232016, and 108449 respectively, and the trading volumes are 197963, 17040, 274975, and 16641 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 8.33, 2.45, 67.00, and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold (in USD/ounce), and London Gold (in another form) are 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively. They have increased by 13.37, 39.70, and 190.495 with corresponding percentage changes of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 8221.00, with an increase of 58.00 (0.71%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 33.21, with an increase of 1.21 (3.78%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 5.88, 67, 96.44, 7.19, and 7.70 respectively, compared to the previous values of 5.58, 71, 95.49, 7.48, and 7.93 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 15,648 kg, 959,785 kg, 40,607,507 (units), and 501,316,990 (units) respectively. The changes are unchanged, an increase of 96.00 kg, a decrease of - 281,064.04 (units), and an increase of 673016 (units) compared to the previous values [2] Related Data - **Market Indexes and Ratios**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.2654, 5606.91, 4.3, 62.04, and 7.2080 respectively, with changes of - 0.53%, - 0.77%, - 1.38%, 0.01%, and 0.10% compared to the previous values [2] - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold are 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486, and 32895 respectively, with changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, an increase of 481, and a decrease of - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and the UK have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, and the US will maintain a unified 10% tariff on UK - imported goods. The UK will further relax market access for US goods. The EU has announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and may restrict imports of US wine, beer, and spirits. The US is about to start the legislative work of a large - scale tax - cut plan [3][4] - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [4] - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the May meeting. Powell mentioned the rising risks of unemployment and inflation in the future, showing a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the Fed is unlikely to make a clear statement [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and then fluctuated upwards. The 06 contract closed at 1283 points, down 3.64%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their freight rates for the second half of May, and the average online price for 40 - foot containers dropped to around $1750, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected peak season for the European line has not been completely falsified, the supply - surplus situation in the European line has been exacerbated by the overflow of capacity from the US line. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward drivers, and the peak - season space is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2506**: The latest transaction price was 1283 points, down 3.64%. The trading volume was 45,529, and the open interest on one side was 38,142. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 408 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest transaction price was 1556.4 points, down 2.45%. The trading volume was 28,090, and the open interest on one side was 36,029. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 910 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest transaction price was 1273.2 points, down 2.94%. The trading volume was 6765, and the open interest on one side was 16,670. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest transaction price was 1458.6 points, down 1.54%. The trading volume was 1379, and the open interest on one side was 3986 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest transaction price was 1286.8 points, down 2.31%. The trading volume was 667, and the open interest on one side was 2736 [1]. - **EC2604**: The latest transaction price was 1173 points, down 1.76%. The trading volume was 360, and the open interest on one side was 1122 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume was 82,790, and the total open interest on one side was 98,685. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 1318 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **SCFIS (weekly)**: The latest index was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1200, down 4.8% from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (20GP) spot freight rate ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1340, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (40GP) ($/FEU)**: The latest price was $2112, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **Basis spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was 96.07 points, up 5.2 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - **Capacity**: The capacity of the Asia - Europe route was 514,749 TEU, a decrease of 456 TEU. The idle capacity ratio was 1.6% [4]. - **Average speed**: The average speed of container ships was 13.88 knots. The average speed of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 15.55 knots, and that of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships was 15.01 knots [4]. - **In - port capacity**: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 219,600 TEU, in Hamburg was 94,600 TEU, and in Singapore was 355,300 TEU [4]. - **Routing situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 11, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the south - bound traffic volume was 2 [4]. - **Time charter rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time charter rate for 9000 TEU ships was $105,000 per day, for 6500 TEU ships was $72,000 per day, and for 2500 TEU ships was $33,750 per day [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, influenced by factors such as US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - Zinc prices might also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on US tariff talks, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff attitude, domestic monetary policy, alumina prices, and downstream demand [1]. - Nickel prices may operate within a range in the short term due to the combination of tight nickel ore supply, tariff policies, and different demand performances in various sectors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices slightly declined. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing significantly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The penetration of new energy is expected to strengthen copper demand in the automotive sector, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,160 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,538 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 21.65 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 193,975 tons, and the daily change was - 1,650 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices slightly rose. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is steadily increasing, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 485 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,633 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.93 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 171,400 tons, and the daily change was - 1,525 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 1.55%. Trump's tariff attitude has been inconsistent, and domestic monetary policy is becoming more relaxed. Alumina prices have declined again, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Currently, some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures to decline further, a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. The operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for aluminum cables, have slightly declined recently, and there is an expectation of a decrease in downstream orders. After the holiday, with the concentrated arrival of aluminum ingots, domestic social inventory may continue to increase [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 19,580 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,427 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 407,575 tons, and the daily change was - 4,000 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.35%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. Indonesia's new tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, with prices likely to rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly fluctuating and consolidating [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,240 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,698 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 201.50 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 199,782 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. Lead - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 275 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,923 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 256,700 tons, and the daily change was - 4,800 tons [2]. Tin - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,690 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 31,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 165.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,755 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 8 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中国持续释放政策利好 通胀压力下美联储按兵不动 在 4 月美国新增非农就业人口大超预期，体现劳动力市场仍有韧性的背景下，5 月美联储利率会议继续按兵不动，声明表示经济前景有关的不确定性进一步增 加"，"并判定，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加。""新美联储通讯社" 称，美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。外交部回应中美经贸 高层会谈表示会谈是应美方请求举行的。昨日国新办"一揽子金融政策"中，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜同时宣布降准降息。金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固 经济回升向好的基本面。中国 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27%，央行连续六个 月增持黄金。欧洲方面表示美谈判失败，欧盟准备反制，将对波音飞机征收关税。 重点品种：股指、原油、铝 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指大幅高开，国防军工和银行板块领涨， 传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.51 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.76%，IF2505 上涨 0.55%，IC2505 上涨 0.25%，IM2505 上涨 0.22%。资金方面，5 月 6 日融资余额 增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line's EC contract showed a decline, with the 06 contract closing at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their May freight rates, and the average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, approaching the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume, it has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View and Strategy Direction - The EC of the European container shipping line first rose and then fell. The 06 contract closed at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. MSK kept its freight rate unchanged in the 21st week, quoting $1450 for large containers, while HPL and OOCL slightly reduced their May freight rates to $1700 for large containers. Most shipping companies in the second half of May continued to use the first - half rates, and some slightly reduced them. The average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. The expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume but has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1288.2 points, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 53581, a unilateral open interest of 39510, long positions of 22192, short positions of 23424, and a net long position of - 1232 [1]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 1559.6 points, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 39237, a unilateral open interest of 36138, long positions of 23359, short positions of 24483, and a net long position of - 1124 [1]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1287.9 points, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 11837, a unilateral open interest of 17426, and no long or short positions reported [1]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1460.7 points, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1893 and a unilateral open interest of 4091 [1]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1291.4 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 982 and a unilateral open interest of 2735 [1]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1182.6 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 849 and a unilateral open interest of 1144 [1]. - The total trading volume is 108379, the total unilateral open interest is 101044, the total long positions of the top 20 members are 45551, the total short positions of the top 20 members are 47907, and the net long position is - 2356 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: SCFIS is 1379.07 points, down 3.5%; SCFI is $1200/TEU, down 4.8% [1]. - Daily spot freight rates: TCI(20GP) is $1340/TEU, down 1.6%; TCI(40GP) is $2112/FEU, down 3.3% [1]. - The basis difference was 90.87 points on the previous trading day, up 11.3 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 516078 TEU, a decrease of 1 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 1.6%, with 1.0% for container ships over 17000 TEU, 0.4% for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 1.2% for 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships [4]. - Average speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots, 15.55 knots for container ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.01 knots for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships [4]. - Capacity in port: Rotterdam has 21.96 million TEU, Hamburg has 9.46 million TEU, and Singapore has 35.53 million TEU [4]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 11, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 1, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [4]. - Time charter rates for 6 - 12 months: $105000 per day for 9000 TEU, $72000 per day for 6500 TEU, and $33750 per day for 2500 TEU [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The policies announced at the press conference can significantly boost market confidence in the future, and A - shares have risen significantly. It is believed that the stock index is likely to choose a direction in the short - term and experience a relatively long - lasting trend. The wide - straddle option buying strategy is more suitable for trading [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3817.20, 3785.00, 3725.80, and 3695.00 respectively, with increases of 20.80, 19.20, 17.40, and 16.00. The trading volumes were 28654.00, 56105.00, 12210.00, and 3405.00, and the open interest changes were - 707.00, 3041.00, 1900.00, and 1341.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2664.80, 2646.40, 2614.00, and 2611.00 respectively, with increases of 20.00, 17.40, 16.80, and 17.80. The trading volumes were 14757.00, 29460.00, 5485.00, and 1256.00, and the open interest changes were 1979.00, 2066.00, 834.00, and 442.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5718.20, 5620.20, 5482.60, and 5386.00 respectively, with increases of 14.00, 0.80, - 1.00, and 0.20. The trading volumes were 31807.00, 54572.00, 14860.00, and 4699.00, and the open interest changes were - 27.00, 2968.00, 3257.00, and 1616.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6059.60, 5953.20, 5774.00, and 5640.00 respectively, with increases of 144.80, 139.20, 133.80, and 129.40. The trading volumes were 38439.00, 107389.00, 21597.00, and 7833.00, and the open interest changes were - 771.00, 6886.00, - 64.00, and 2572.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 32.20, - 18.40, - 98.00, and - 106.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 31.40, - 16.20, - 83.60, and - 104.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3831.63, 2670.70, 5740.33, and 6111.49 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.87, 1.93, and 0.14. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 161.17, 47.06, 162.77, and 233.92, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 2860.11, 806.55, 2170.60, and 2965.22 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.05%, 0.57%, and 1.11% respectively, while the information technology sector had a decrease of - 0.34% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 index were - 14.43, - 46.63, - 105.83, and - 136.63 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index were - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 index were - 32.09, - 130.09, - 267.69, and - 364.29 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 index were - 46.29, - 156.29, - 337.49, and - 471.49 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.67, 10104.13, 6294.55, and 1996.51 respectively, with increases of 0.80%, 0.22%, - 0.20%, and 0.51% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 22691.88, 36779.66, 5631.28, and 23115.96 respectively, with increases of 0.13%, - 0.14%, 0.43%, and - 0.58% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the structural monetary policy tool rate and the provident fund loan rate. The China Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin and introduce reform measures for the STAR Market and the ChiNext [2] - **Reform of the Public Fund Industry**: The CSRC issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, aiming to guide the industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [2] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged. After the rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Real Estate**: In the first quarter, the balance of real estate loans increased by more than 750 billion yuan, and the new individual housing loans reached the highest quarterly increase since 2022. The housing rental loans increased by 28% year - on - year. The approved "white - list" loans of commercial banks reached 6.7 trillion yuan [2] - **New Energy Vehicles**: In April, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales in April were 58,459, a 6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Finance**: The China Financial Regulatory Administration approved the preparation of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. by Industrial Bank [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The US three major indexes rose. In the previous trading day, the stock index opened significantly higher, with the national defense and military industry and banking sectors leading the gains, and the media sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.51 trillion yuan [2] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to use the wide - straddle option buying strategy for trading [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Analysts predict the 2025/2026 US soybean yield to be 4.338 billion bushels, with a range of 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's 4.37 billion bushels from the Agricultural Outlook Forum [2] - Anec expects Brazil's May 2025 soybean exports to be 12.6 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.87 million tons, both lower than last year [2] - Protein meal: Night - trading of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated. The market is cautious about the Sino - US economic and trade talks. US soybean exports face pressure, and the abundant domestic supply in Q2 will pressure prices [2] - Oils: Night - trading of palm oil was weakly oscillating, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. The short - term domestic soybean supply is tight, but will be sufficient in Q2. Palm oil fundamentals are weaker due to the production - increasing season [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are given, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 26 points (0.34%), palm oil fell 60 points (-0.75%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. are presented, showing current and previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided, along with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil fell 94 points (-2.42%) [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions are given, with percentage changes. For example, Tianjin's first - grade soybean oil rose 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads are presented, showing current and previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Values and Changes**: Import and crushing profit values for different products are given, showing current and previous values. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil improved from - 838 to - 769 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: Warehouse receipt quantities for different products are provided, showing current and previous values. For example, the soybean oil warehouse receipt quantity remained at 5,355 [1]