1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and there are no signs of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradictions, yet the spot still has some support. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and with the implementation of export license management for some steel products starting from January 1st next year, it is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract. [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipping volume was 33.686 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 454,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.553 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.105 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.674 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47 million tons, with 15.882 million tons shipped to China, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.574 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.148 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. [13] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons. [13] - **Summary**: Overseas iron ore shipping volume increased slightly. Australia's shipping volume rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipping volume, while Brazil's shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high this year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.3 million tons. Some blast furnace overhauls were affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rest were mainly annual inspections with relatively long shutdown times. The steel mill profitability rate declined slightly. Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory was at a low level in the same period. It is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. [13][14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 138 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 0.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feeding ratio was 14.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 73.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [25] - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/wet ton. [28] - **Freight**: No specific analysis of freight changes is provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. [30] 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 154.3142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3061 million tons. The pellet inventory was 296,470 tons, a week - on - week increase of 59,300 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.31422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 483,100 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.05733 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,400 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 66.6743 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3676 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 58.0704 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,900 tons. [35][38][41] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,530 tons. [45] 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipping**: The shipping volume from Australia to China at 19 ports was 15.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.542 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 6.284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.705 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 3.896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.822 million tons. Vale's shipping volume was 4.781 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.681 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 3.621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons. [50][53][56] - **Arrival and Import**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [59] - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 58.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 45,380 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons. [65] 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points. [70] - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74,000 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons. [73] 3.6 Basis As of December 12th, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 61.03 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.43%. [78]

马棕累库现实施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/12/13 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 基差 出口 | 利润及生柴价差 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：01-20元/吨 Y：01+260元/吨 马棕11月大幅累库 | 近月马棕到港成本 8930元/吨，棕榈油 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：01+260元/吨 | 现货8550。生柴价差 中位。 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽丰产 | 尼库存偏低 | | 多空评分 | 0 -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 印尼9月环比减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the commodity market was generally weak, and the prices of finished products showed a volatile trend. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, with an overall performance of being neutral and stable. The output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the pressure on inventory reduction increased further, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in the factory warehouse this week. [9][10] - Politburo and Central Economic Work Conferences were held this week. The meetings emphasized boosting domestic demand, optimizing project implementation and bond management, and stabilizing the real estate market. The real estate industry will continue the main tone of "controlling increments and reducing inventories", and new construction is expected to remain weak. Fiscal efforts will support the economy and steel demand marginally. Overall, steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak, and the demand structure may shift towards infrastructure and manufacturing. Currently, the terminal demand is still weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and steel prices may fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of the winter storage season, attention should be paid to winter storage policies. [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The profit of hot-rolled blast furnaces was -51 yuan/ton, the gross profit level was low, the spot premium was about 57 yuan/ton, and the valuation was neutral. [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.292 million tons, and the decline of hot metal this week slightly exceeded expectations, with a slight decline in hot - rolled coil output. [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. The export level was moderately strong, the terminal demand in real estate and infrastructure was poor, and the demand was moderately weak. [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 397,090 tons, the inventory level was high, and the current inventory pressure was large. [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy was to wait and see. [11] Periodic and Spot Market - The content mainly presents various price and spread charts of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and related products, including spot prices, regional spreads, contract basis spreads, and futures spreads. [16][20][34] Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. [56][57] - **Inventory**: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and factory inventory of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates. [60][64][65] Cost Side - The content includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore, coke, and the price of scrap steel. It also shows the daily average output of hot metal, the cost of hot metal, and the prices of related steel products. [78][80][84] Supply Side - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in different regions and samples. [93][95][96] - **Cold - Rolled Coils**: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples. [100][103][104] - **Coated Plates**: Charts show the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of color - coated plates and galvanized plates. [105][106] Demand Side - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Charts also show the apparent consumption and its cumulative year - on - year growth rate. [8][109][110] - **Related Industries**: Charts show the production and sales of automobiles (including different types), tractors, household appliances (refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines), metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products that affect the demand for steel. [112][116][118]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is ebbing, and the supply of zinc continues to tighten. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains. Although the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the 11th was unexpectedly dovish and restarted balance - sheet expansion, driving precious metals and non - ferrous metals to rise rapidly, the dot - plot only prices in one 25bps rate cut next year, and the stimulus of the Fed's monetary policy before March 18 next year is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.68% at 23,621 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 219,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 220,100 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,700 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 65 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 80 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 235,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Market Trends**: The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased, and the TC of zinc concentrate continued to decline. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, while the LME zinc ingot inventory slowly increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly. At the current Shanghai - London ratio, there is still an element gap in China. Coupled with the production cuts of zinc smelting enterprises, the domestic spot side has tightened marginally [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - The report presents multiple macro - economic data charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of US national debt to GDP and the total national debt, the Fed's balance - sheet asset and liability structure, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing new orders and unfilled orders, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US aluminum and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [33][35]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 139,900 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc is relatively high. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc is rising, and the net short position of commercial enterprises is rising. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bullish [67].

反套或低多远月 生猪周报 2025/12/13 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价先跌后涨，周内受降温降雪影响，市场备货有所增加，屠宰量稳步增多，上游顺势出栏，交易均重略微下滑，肥标价差 小幅抬高；具体看，河南均价周涨0.1元至11.48元/公斤，周内最低11.22元/公斤，四川均价周涨0.76元至12.06元/公斤，周内最低11.5元/公 斤，广东均价周涨0.24元至12.16元/公斤；散户和集团场供应陆续增加，但在腌腊等需求放量的带动下，整体走货顺畅，预期未来猪价以仍微 涨走势为主。 ◆ 供应端：10月官方母猪存栏为3990万头，环比回落1.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多2.3%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或导致今年及明年上半 年供应基调维持偏空；不过，当前政策端强制去产能的预期较强，或在今年亏损有限的背景下改善 ...

密集宏观事件落地，虽未有超预期 增量政策，但建议偏乐观看待 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅周报 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5700元/吨，环比-20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5730元/吨，环比-28元/吨；基差160元/吨，环比+8元/吨， 基差率2.74%，处于历史统计值的偏高水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-551元/吨，环比+27元/吨；宁夏-707元/吨，环比-42元/吨；广西-671元/吨， 环比+76元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6071元/吨，环比-37元/吨；宁夏在6187元/吨，环比+2元/吨；广西在6271元/吨，环比- 26元/吨。（成本为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rainy season in Guinea is over, and the AXIS mine is resuming production, so the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost level of Guinea's ore. - The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. - The current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, so the expectation of subsequent production cuts is increasing. The overall non - ferrous metal sector is showing strong performance, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [11]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [11]. - **Mineral End**: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. The price of domestic ore remains firm, but alumina plants' willingness to push down prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ore, after the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Supply Side**: As of December 13, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [12]. - **Import and Export**: As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton. The import window was closed [12]. - **Demand Side**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ore, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by $0.5 to $70 per ton, and that of Australia decreased by $0.5 to $67.5 per ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 55.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. From the perspective of import sources, in October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports decreased, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports from Australia in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.78 million tons to 53.29 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 0.27 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 0.47 million tons in November. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In November 2025, alumina production was 7.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 82.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. In terms of operating capacity, in November 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. As of December 12, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price has declined. Although the raw material prices have also decreased, the profits of alumina plants are still under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on December 12, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ore, the current production profit can reach 100 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong are 20 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the gross profits of using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan have dropped to 170 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the previous import window led to the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In November 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 57.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42% [54]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 40.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The document provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated) and the cumulative data for 2025, including information on the supply - demand gap, total demand, net exports, total supply, export volume, import volume, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively [70]. - **Alumina Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [71].

短期供给扰动，预计 锡价偏强震荡 锡周报 2025/12/13 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：10月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺略有缓解。但短期刚果（金）冲突恶化，对锡矿运输造成扰动，市场担忧情绪有所 升温。根据中国海关公布的数据，10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量11632实物吨（折合约4938金属吨），同比下降15.74%，环比增加43.36%。其 中从缅甸的进口量为2367吨（折合约861金属吨），同比下降43.64%，环比增加1.50%；除缅甸外10月从其他国家合计进口量为9266吨（折合 约4077金属吨），同比下降5.90%，环比增加57.05%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract was pressured due to the accelerated destocking of port inventories and the overall macro - pessimism about the future. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. The reality and expectations were average, with the single - side trend being weakly volatile and short - term contradictions not being sharp [11]. - The macro - expectations weakened, and the accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. The significant decline in imports led to accelerated destocking of port inventories, but there were doubts about future destocking. The shutdown of port MTO plants was realized, and short - term demand weakened. MTO profits continued to decline. The enterprise profits on the supply side returned to a neutral position, and the operating rate remained at a high level in the same period, with overall supply at a high level [11]. - As the bullish factors were realized, the market would return to the reality logic. The methanol fundamentals still had certain pressure, and it was expected to be mainly sorted out at a low level. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The 05 contract was pressured, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly, and the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate was 89.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume was 24.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82 tons. The port MTO operating rate was 77.54%, a decrease of 9.94% from last week, and the plant shut down as scheduled [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of traditional demand such as formaldehyde and MTBE decreased, while others increased, with overall improvement. Enterprise profits returned to a neutral level [11]. - **Valuation**: Port MTO profits continued to decline, currently neutral. The overall methanol valuation was relatively neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. Production enterprise inventories were 35.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - **Market Logic**: Weak macro - expectations and accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - **Summary**: After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. There were doubts about future destocking. Short - term demand weakened, MTO profits declined, and overall supply was at a high level. The market was expected to be sorted out at a low level [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - The document mainly presents various charts related to methanol's term structure, basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest, such as the methanol term structure chart, 01 contract basis chart, 1 - 5 spread chart, 01 contract open interest chart, and total open interest chart [20][22][25] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Energy Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented [31][33][36] - **Profit Calculation**: Charts of profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, Shandong coal - based methanol production, and MA - 2*ZC are presented [39] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories are at a high level and are continuously being destocked. Charts of various regional inventories such as port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and factory inventories are presented [41][42][49] 3.4. Supply Side - **Domestic and Overseas Operating Rates**: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented. The domestic operating rate is at a high level [53] - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volume and its breakdown by country (Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia) are presented [55][59] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume has declined. Charts of arrival volumes in East China, South China, and the whole of China are presented [64][65] - **International Spreads and Domestic Freight**: Charts of import profits, international price spreads, and domestic methanol freight are presented [67][70][79] 3.5. Demand Side - **Demand Deduction**: Charts of methanol consumption and ending inventories are presented [84] - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Charts related to the olefin operating rate, Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rate, and MTO - related spreads and profits are presented. The port MTO operating rate has decreased [86][87][98] - **PP Production Profits**: Charts of production profits of PP through various processes (oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based) are presented [95] - **Other Downstream Industries**: Charts of operating rates and profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and other downstream industries, as well as downstream inventory, are presented [106][108][110] 3.6. Option - Related - Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and option volatility are presented [121][123] 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented [126][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is running weakly, with prices breaking through support levels. In the short - term, after a smooth decline, attention should be paid to the rebound near technical support levels. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck, and demand support is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti - involution" related commodities improves. For polysilicon, there is a significant divergence between expectations and reality. The expected "anti - involution" is strong, but the downstream reality is weak. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at the 60,000 - yuan mark on the disk [16][18] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - The weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. The DMC output is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [14] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [14] Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [15] Cost - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [15] Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [15] 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [23] Polysilicon - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type reclaimed feedstock is 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51 yuan/kg, also remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 57,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,040 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is - 4,890 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of - 9.35% [26] 03. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. In November 2025, the output of industrial silicon is 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 672,900 tons or 15.39% [31] Main Production Areas Output - Not specifically summarized in text, but data on production in different regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in figures [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of December 12, 2025, the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber remain unchanged month - on - month, and the silica price also remains stable month - on - month. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [43][46] Visible Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [49] 04. Polysilicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. Under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon output in November is 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons; from January to November, the cumulative output of polysilicon is 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [54] Operating Rate and Scheduled Production - The operating rate of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber in November is 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in December will be 113,500 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month [57] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 298,800 tons; under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon inventory is 293,000 tons [60] Cost and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 41,790.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of polysilicon is 8,314.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63] Silicon Wafer - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of silicon wafers under the SMM caliber is 12.15GW, an increase month - on - month. The silicon wafer output in November is 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. From January to November, the silicon wafer output is 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The silicon wafer inventory is 23.3GW, a slight increase month - on - month. The predicted silicon wafer output in December is 45.7GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [66][69] Battery Cell - Under the SMM caliber, the battery cell output in November is 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in November is 56.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of battery cells is 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories is 9.07GW, an increase month - on - month. The predicted battery cell output in December is 48.72GW, a significant increase month - on - month [75][78] Component - Under the SMM caliber, the component output in November is 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The component operating rate in November is 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of components is 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. As of December 12, 2025, the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic components under the SMM caliber is 30.4GW, remaining stable month - on - month. The predicted component output in December is 39.99GW, a significant decrease compared with November [83][86] 05. Organic Silicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC output under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. The DMC output in November is 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative DMC output is 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58% [93] Price and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of organic silicon under the SMM statistics is reported at 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 1,709.38 yuan/ton [96] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC inventory under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 44,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [99] 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of December 12, 2025, the quotation of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 22,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 130 yuan/ton; the quotation of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 60%; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is 59.8% [104][107] Export - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [110]