Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current strong performance of silver prices is more influenced by the macro - level than the spot - level. The silver price is expected to continue to rise significantly next week, with attention focused on the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is recommended. New long positions or short - selling at high prices in this stage carry significant risks. For Shanghai Gold, it is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangle convergence, and the strategy suggests buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. - The release of US key economic data worse than expected has further boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's loose monetary policy, driving the strong performance of silver prices. The weakness of the US manufacturing industry has increased the market's pricing of overseas recession expectations, and the possible nomination of Hassett as the new Fed Chairman may also impact the US dollar's credit, which is why silver, as a monetary metal, shows a strong price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.66% to 964.72 yuan/g, and Shanghai Silver rose 5.08% to 13,766.00 yuan/kg. COMEX Gold was reported at 4265.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 58.33 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - On December 1, 2025, compared with November 28, 2025, in the gold market, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.20% to 4265.00 dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 49.08% to 22.35 million lots, and open interest rose 0.05% to 48.58 million lots. In the silver market, COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 2.39% to 58.45 dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 77.90% to 361.93 million lots, and open interest rose 3.57% to 17.24 million lots [7]. Market Analysis - As of yesterday afternoon, the open interest of the COMEX silver near - month December contract was only 2907 lots, equivalent to 452 tons of physical silver, and the total inventory of COMEX silver was 14,183 tons as of December 1, much higher than the open interest of the near - month contract, so there is no short - term "delivery difficulty" in the overseas silver market. The one - month spot lease rate of London Silver is 6.64% as of today, far lower than the 40% high in early October, indicating limited tightness in the overseas silver spot market [3]. Strategy Suggestions - For silver, the price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, stop profit in time. Avoid opening new long positions or short - selling at high prices. For gold, since Shanghai Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangle convergence, buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20]. By Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal - **行情资讯** - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose, the Brazilian soybean premium increased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Over the weekend, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 3020 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal transactions declined significantly, and the delivery was good. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons this week, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days [2]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from simultaneous growth in supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The predicted annual inventory - to - use ratio of global soybeans has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to the current 28.94%, providing bottom support [3]. - The new global soybean production has been continuously revised downwards, and the total production is now equal to the total demand, indicating a decrease in global soybean supply compared to the 24/25 season [5]. - **策略观点** - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the crushing margin is under pressure. As it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Fats and Oils - **行情资讯** - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in November first increased and then decreased compared with the previous month. On November 28, floods and landslides in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused at least 106 deaths. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils continued to rebound, and foreign investors continued to reduce their short positions in palm oil. The domestic spot basis was stable [6]. - **策略观点** - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. Sugar - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of new sugar from major domestic sugar - making groups were stable. As of November 27, 21 sugar - mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons compared with the same period last year. StoneX predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the largest since the 2017/18 season. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.08 million tons [10]. - **策略观点** - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, it is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. Cotton - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased slightly. As of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% compared with the same period last year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast [13][14]. - **策略观点** - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. Eggs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable or slightly increased. The laying hen inventory remained high, the proportion of small eggs gradually decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large under the rotation method. The demand support was limited, but the short - term replenishment at the low price stage may support a slight increase in egg prices [16]. - **策略观点** - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. Pigs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices generally rose. The demand did not increase significantly, but the slaughter volume at the end of the month decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell, supporting the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will continue to be strong today [19]. - **策略观点** - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range, with high overall inventory and existing structural contradictions [5]. - The ferroalloy shows a weak trend, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [9]. - The industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand with limited marginal changes, and the price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectation, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [15]. - The glass industry is still at the bottom - exploring stage, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high levels [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish before the demand side improves significantly [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.549%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.273%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to be depleted, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory was only slightly depleted [2]. - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese hot - rolled thick steel plates will affect steel exports to some extent [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of - 0.69% (- 5.50), and the position changed by - 23,368 lots to 391,000 lots. The weighted position was 920,100 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to a near - three - year low. The port inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed [5]. - The iron ore overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On November 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.25%, at 5,612 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed flat at 5,390 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,400 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated narrowly at the lower edge of the range, and the ferrosilicon price slowly declined [8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black - metal sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected. There's no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - The manganese silicon fundamentals are not ideal, and it is difficult to drive the price down significantly. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. The ferrosilicon supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9,130 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.16% (+ 15). The weighted contract position changed by - 28,495 lots to 381,451 lots [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,425 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 2.15% (+ 1,190). The weighted contract position changed by + 5,632 lots to 260,870 lots [14]. - **Strategy Views** - The production of industrial silicon has been declining, the demand from polysilicon is weakening, the demand from silicone is stable in the short term, and the cost support is stable. The price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production cut is expected to increase, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The price is affected by the delivery game and the platform company's implementation expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.39% (+ 4). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.09% (+ 1). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [18]. - The soda ash production load has slightly increased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is supported by cost and pending orders. It is expected to remain stable in the short term, but should be regarded as bearish before the demand improves [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long option futures and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.60, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 645.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.8 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,984.08, up 0.85% with a trading volume of 940 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,969.62, down 0.09% with a trading volume of 85 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,526.66, up 0.25% with a trading volume of 341.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 76 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,031.55, up 1.15% with a trading volume of 243.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,334.21, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 342.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.113, up 0.03% with a trading volume of 5.8919 million shares, a decrease of 1.99 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.635, up 0.28% with a trading volume of 5.1923 million shares, an increase of 1.77 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.135, up 1.21% with a trading volume of 1.7733 million shares, a decrease of 0.75 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.393, up 1.02% with a trading volume of 20.924 million shares, a decrease of 9.34 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.350, up 1.05% with a trading volume of 7.7909 million shares, a decrease of 4.52 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.783, up 0.31% with a trading volume of 1.0036 million shares, an increase of 0.73 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.846, up 1.03% with a trading volume of 0.7437 million shares, an increase of 0.18 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.370, up 0.36% with a trading volume of 0.7713 million shares, an increase of 0.11 billion yuan in trading value [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.035, up 0.76% with a trading volume of 9.0925 million shares, a decrease of 10.67 billion yuan in trading value [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.02 (up 0.10), and the open interest PCR was 0.99 (up 0.01) [6]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.18 (up 0.15), and the open interest PCR was 1.10 (up 0.03) [6]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.24 (up 0.02), and the open interest PCR was 1.31 (up 0.04) [6]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.87 (up 0.08), and the open interest PCR was 1.05 (up 0.02) [6]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.96 (up 0.17), and the open interest PCR was 0.91 (unchanged) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.27 (up 0.09), and the open interest PCR was 1.07 (down 0.01) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.29 (down 0.13), and the open interest PCR was 0.91 (up 0.03) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 2.20 (down 0.46), and the open interest PCR was 1.53 (up 0.03) [6]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 1.15 (up 0.06), and the open interest PCR was 1.36 (up 0.04) [6]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.65 (down 0.02), and the open interest PCR was 0.69 (down 0.02) [6]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.65 (down 0.03), and the open interest PCR was 0.70 (down 0.01) [6]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume PCR was 0.86 (down 0.04), and the open interest PCR was 0.97 (up 0.03) [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure point of the Shanghai 50 ETF was 3.20, and the support point was 3.10 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shanghai 300 ETF was 4.70, and the support point was 4.60 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shanghai 500 ETF was 7.25, and the support point was 4.90 [8]. - The pressure point of the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF was 1.45, and the support point was 1.35 [8]. - The pressure point of the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF was 1.45, and the support point was 0.80 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shenzhen 300 ETF was 5.00, and the support point was 3.50 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shenzhen 500 ETF was 2.85, and the support point was 2.05 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shenzhen 100 ETF was 3.61, and the support point was 2.34 [8]. - The pressure point of the ChiNext ETF was 3.10, and the support point was 3.00 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shanghai 50 index was 3,000, and the support point was 2,900 [8]. - The pressure point of the CSI 300 index was 4,500, and the support point was 4,500 [8]. - The pressure point of the CSI 1000 index was 7,400, and the support point was 7,000 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 50 ETF option was 12.44%, and the weighted implied volatility was 12.91% (down 0.20%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 300 ETF option was 14.15%, and the weighted implied volatility was 14.10% (down 0.19%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 500 ETF option was 17.69%, and the weighted implied volatility was 18.46% (down 0.41%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option was 26.79%, and the weighted implied volatility was 27.41% (down 1.08%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option was 40.56%, and the weighted implied volatility was 28.28% (down 0.92%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shenzhen 300 ETF option was 14.28%, and the weighted implied volatility was 17.38% (down 0.70%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shenzhen 500 ETF option was 18.20%, and the weighted implied volatility was 21.78% (down 3.80%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 18.34%, and the weighted implied volatility was 24.74% (down 1.92%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the ChiNext ETF option was 26.22%, and the weighted implied volatility was 26.88% (down 1.00%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 50 index option was 12.56%, and the weighted implied volatility was 13.55% (up 0.08%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the CSI 300 index option was 14.08%, and the weighted implied volatility was 14.42% (down 0.32%) [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option was 18.05%, and the weighted implied volatility was 18.34% (down 0.64%) [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Specific sub - sectors and corresponding option varieties are provided [13]. - For each sub - sector, option strategies and recommendations are given based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and specific option strategies [13][14]. - For example, for the Shanghai 50 ETF in the financial stock sector, a seller - neutral combination strategy can be constructed for volatility strategies, and a spot long - covered call strategy can also be considered [14].

有色金属日报 2025-12-1 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 冶炼减产忧虑下铜价一度突破历史新高，周五伦铜 3M 合约收涨 2.25%至 11175 美元/吨，沪铜主力 合约收至 88740 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 2250 至 159425 吨，注销仓单比例抬升，Cash/3M 升水走强。 国 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. However, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology and growth are still the main market trends. Index investment should focus on buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market supply - demand pattern may improve, but it will maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex. Some are expected to strengthen due to factors such as supply disturbances and cost support, while others may face pressure due to factors such as over - supply and weak demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - events and industry fundamentals [41][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%. The National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department. The central bank continued to ban virtual currencies. Metal prices soared on Friday, with silver and copper hitting record highs [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the index should be bought on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In November, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing business activity index declined. Japan revised its bond issuance plan. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Friday, with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the manufacturing PMI data showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. Silver has entered the accelerated peak - hitting stage, and its technical trend conforms to the characteristics of previous second - stage rises. The current overseas position and inventory levels are not in a state of "delivery difficulties" [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is in an accelerated rise, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, profits should be taken in time. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high prices. Shanghai gold is at the end of a triangular convergence breakthrough pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Concerns about smelting production cuts led copper prices to break through historical highs. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic futures exchange inventory decreased. The domestic spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors still exist, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the expectation of smelting production cuts drives copper prices to rise. The downstream operating rate is stable and strong, so copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen [12]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots continued to decline. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to decline, and the trading was average [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disturbances, stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to rise further [14]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The LME zinc price fell. The domestic social zinc inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased after considering the in - transit and factory inventories. The zinc import was at a loss [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit is under pressure. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. The current situation of the zinc industry is not in resonance with the strong macro - sentiment, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. The LME lead price also rose. The domestic social lead inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap price difference was at par [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the primary smelting operating rate has declined, and the secondary smelting operating rate has continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased. In the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, so lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The spot price premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable, while the nickel iron price continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The inventory of the futures exchange increased, and the LME tin inventory also increased. The supply of tin concentrate has been slightly relieved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but emerging fields provide long - term support. The social inventory has decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the demand in the tin market is weak in the short - term, the supply disturbance is the decisive factor for short - term prices. Therefore, tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, while the futures price increased. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts the bullish sentiment, but there are differences in future demand expectations. The change of the mining permit of Jiaxiawo Mine is a short - term positive for the spot but a long - term negative for supply. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere of the equity market [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. The domestic spot price was at a premium to the futures. The overseas price fell, and the import window was opened. The futures inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot prices in different markets were stable or decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures and social inventories decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel mill production is at a high level, the demand has improved marginally, but the cost pressure has squeezed the profit, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The market lacks a clear upward momentum, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and there are policy disturbances on the supply side. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The spot prices in different regions were stable or increased [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market adjusted on Friday, and the prices of steel products fluctuated. The supply and demand of rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The anti - dumping tax imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel will affect exports. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, so attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and important meetings [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price fell. The spot price was at a premium to the futures, and the port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, the demand weakened, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability was at a low level. The overall inventory of iron ore is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillatory range [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions decreased. The soda ash main contract price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions also decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For glass, the supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has improved briefly, but the overall trading is still light, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For soda ash, the industry operating rate has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased slightly, the price is stable, but it is still recommended to be bearish in the short - term [37][38]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price was flat. The prices of the two in the spot market were stable, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has improved. The black - building materials sector is still in a weak state, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. For manganese silicon, the fundamentals are not ideal, and there are no major contradictions. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [41][42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term trading volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the trend has become dull. The production has continued to decline, the demand from the polysilicon sector has weakened, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price is easily affected by the sentiment of other new - energy varieties [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price rose. The spot prices of different types were stable, and the futures was at a premium to the spot [45][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The spot price is stable, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [47]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded. The flood in the Thai rubber - producing area receded, and the exchange inventory was low. The tire factory operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to adopt a neutral strategy, wait and see, or conduct short - term trading. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil products also rose. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore decreased, while the fuel oil inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy is maintained, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [54]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iranian plant shutdowns have been realized, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market expectation has changed. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to turn to an oscillatory adjustment after the positive factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trading and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity [55]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has support from export policies and costs, so it is recommended to consider buying at low prices [57]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, the basis decreased. The styrene spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and the valuation has a large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, the styrene operating rate is rising, and the inventory is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point occurs, the non - integrated profit of styrene can be long [59]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The production cost increased, the operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is at a low level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export cannot digest the excess capacity. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [61][62]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose, the spot price fell, the basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The supply load increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, the import volume will decrease slightly, and the port inventory accumulation may slow down. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is still weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [64]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unexpected maintenance of PTA is expected to decrease. The downstream polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and the PX has a risk of a slight valuation correction [66]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 3 spread was negative. The p - xylene operating rate decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate increased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, the downstream PTA operating rate is low, and the PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [68]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price was stable, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth may support oil prices. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices

1. Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated December 1, 2025, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [1][2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are showing a bullish upward trend, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended [2]. - For black metals, which maintain large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding and warming up, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Futures Market Overview - **Copper (CU2601)**: The latest price is 88,740, up 1,530 (1.75%) with a trading volume of 9.45 million lots (down 0.08 million lots) and an open interest of 21.83 million lots (up 0.76 million lots) [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The latest price is 21,780, up 270 (1.26%) with a trading volume of 12.77 million lots (down 2.29 million lots) and an open interest of 26.07 million lots (up 0.35 million lots) [3]. - **Other Metals**: Similar data are provided for zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, gold, silver, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and glass [3]. 4.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Volume PCR**: It measures whether the underlying asset's market is at a turning point. For example, copper's volume PCR is 0.43 with no change [4]. - **Open Interest PCR**: It describes the strength of the underlying asset's market. For example, copper's open interest PCR is 0.83, up 0.02 [4]. 4.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Copper**: The pressure point is 90,000 and the support point is 84,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The pressure point is 22,000 and the support point is 21,000 [5]. - Other metals also have corresponding pressure and support levels provided [5]. 4.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Copper**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 14.83%, and the weighted implied volatility is 16.35% (up 0.49%) [6]. - **Aluminum**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.11%, and the weighted implied volatility is 10.42% (up 0.09%) [6]. - Similar data are given for other metals [6]. 4.5 Strategy and Recommendations 4.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility selling option portfolio strategy and a spot long hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull call spread strategy, a selling call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - Other non - ferrous metals like zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate also have corresponding strategies [9][10][11]. 4.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull call spread strategy, a short - volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 4.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [13]. - Other black metals such as manganese silicon, industrial silicon, and glass also have corresponding strategies [13][14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties are provided, along with their changes. These factors are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning points of the market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are presented for each option variety, which are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interests of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, are provided for each option variety. The weighted implied volatility is calculated using trading volume-weighted average [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand from US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil production has slightly declined during the recent oil price drop. OPEC's short-term supply remains flat. The market has shown a complex price trend from August to November [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540, and the support level is 430 [8] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [8] 3.5.2 Energy Options - LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a historical high. The cost of crude oil is affected by supply surplus and geopolitical issues. LPG has shown a market trend of oversold rebound and consolidation from September to November [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4200 [10] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a long position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [10] 3.5.3 Alcohols Options - Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level. Methanol has shown a market trend of oversold rebound from August to November [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2300, and the support level is 2000 [10] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [10] 3.5.4 Alcohols Options - Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is expected to increase at a slower rate, and the supply - demand balance has improved. Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend from August to November [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong short - selling power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 3800 [11] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefins Options - Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PE and PP production enterprise and trader inventories have decreased. Polypropylene has shown a weak market trend from August to November [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - None; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Rubber inventory is expected to decrease significantly in mid - January. Rubber has shown a weak and volatile market trend from August to November [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the lower average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has significantly decreased to 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a neutral combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - None [12] 3.5.7 Polyesters Options - PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA inventory has decreased, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking phase. PTA has shown a market trend of rebound from August to November [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a neutral combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - None [12] 3.5.8 Alkaline Chemicals Options - Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply is sufficient, and the downstream alumina market is in a stalemate. Caustic soda has shown a weak and bearish market trend from August to November [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio; Volatility strategy - None; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13] 3.5.9 Alkaline Chemicals Options - Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Soda ash inventory has decreased. Soda ash has shown a low - level and volatile market trend from August to November [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio; Volatility strategy - Construct a short - volatility combination; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [13] 3.5.10 Other Energy and Chemicals Options - Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. Urea has shown a market trend of low - level consolidation and rebound from August to November [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a long - biased combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, agricultural by - products are in a volatile range, soft commodities like sugar have slight fluctuations, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,108, down 7 with a decline of 0.17%, trading volume of 10.35 million lots (down 0.40 million lots), and open interest of 19.04 million lots (down 0.04 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.65 (down 0.17), and the open - interest PCR is 0.98 (down 0.00) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared to the annual average. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.97%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.39% (down 0.07% compared to the previous period) [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, China's purchase of US soybeans has advanced the shipping schedule. The market has a high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal, and the supply pressure is still large. The price has shown a pattern of rebound after a decline. Option - factor research shows that the implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 4,200 and 4,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean meal**: The oil mill's operating rate is about 61.41%. The price has shown a downward - then - upward trend with a weakening overall. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2,950 and 2,800 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, while exports have decreased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the open - interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 9,500 and 9,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish put option spread, a bearish call + put option selling combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The price has shown a short - term bullish trend. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open - interest PCR is around 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 8,000 and 7,700 respectively. A long collar strategy is recommended for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Live pig**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 11,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The egg price has shown a slight increase with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is in a pattern of rebound and large - scale consolidation. The implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4,000 and 2,800 respectively. A neutral call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple**: The new - season apple storage work has ended. The price is in a pattern of continuous recovery and high - level consolidation. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is above 0.90, and the pressure and support levels are 10,000 and 8,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The new - season jujube production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is large. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to above the historical average, the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 12,600 and 10,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has decreased. The price is in a weak bearish pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is around 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 5,700 and 5,400 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate is stable, and the commercial inventory has increased. The price is in a short - term bullish pattern. The implied volatility is at a low level, the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 13,600 and 13,000 respectively. Strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The corn inventory in northern ports has increased, and the trading volume is light. The price is in a pattern of weak rebound. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2,200 and 2,000 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13]. - **Starch**: The price of starch is in a weak pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3,000 and 2,500 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13]. 3.5.5 Other Options - **Log**: The price of log is in a weak pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 850 and 700 respectively. A bullish call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [13].