下游景气度见底反弹， 原料估值跟随商品情绪修复 聚酯周报 2025/07/26 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周大幅反弹，09合约单周上涨252元，报7062元。现货端CFR中国上涨35美元，报874美元。现货折算基差上涨28元，截至7月25 日为133元。9-1价差下降28元，截至7月25日为112元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷79.9%，环比下降1.2%；亚洲负荷72.9%，环比下降0.7%。装置方面，盛虹因前道装置故障进一步降负，天津石化检修， 金陵石化提负。进口方面，7月中上旬韩国PX出口中国23.8万吨，同比下降0.5万吨。整体上，后续国内检修量仍然偏少，负荷持续偏高。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷79.7%，环比持平，装置方面，上周变动不大。PTA短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand with high valuations. Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, but the valuation pressure is significant. In the short term, there is an expectation of supply reduction due to anti - involution and a rebound in the black building materials sector, but there is a risk of a sharp decline after the sentiment fades. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by large - scale capacity growth and continuous decline in real estate demand. It needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is at 585 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a high point for the year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound, but the valuation support is currently weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, a 0.5% decrease, and the ethylene method is 70.3%, a 1.7% decrease. The supply load decreased last week due to the maintenance of several enterprises, and it is expected to recover next week. There were more maintenance operations in July than in June, but the supply pressure remains high, and the pressure of new device production in the third quarter is large [11]. - **Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with an expectation of pre - tariff export rush. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have rebounded this week. The overall downstream load is 41.9%, a 1.8% increase from the previous period, but still weak compared to the same period last year. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 795,000 tons, a 99,000 - ton increase from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 683,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. In the future, under the pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the supply - demand situation will turn to inventory accumulation, and it is necessary to observe whether the export is better than expected [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure. The maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices will be put into production. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and still in the off - season. The cost support is weakening. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by capacity growth and real - estate demand decline. Overall, the fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent export can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot markets, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 9 - 1 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure [37]. - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium - carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [31][34][36]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices are falling and inventory is accumulating. The report presents charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Lanzhou semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong, liquid chlorine price in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][48]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including several enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [57][62]. - The report shows charts of PVC historical capacity trends, 2025 PVC production capacity, and raw materials consumed by 2025 PVC production [58][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The export volume and pre - sales volume have also increased to some extent. India's anti - dumping policy extension may lead to an export rush at the end of the rainy season [11]. - The report presents charts of PVC downstream operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year from 2021 to 2025 [73][81][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventory in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will lead to a seasonal decline in demand, limiting the upside potential of crude oil. Given the limited upside potential and window period, a short-term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is set. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to make left-side bets on the geopolitical expectations of Russia in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when the oil price drops significantly [14]. - In the medium term, the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and it is more important to grasp the driving rhythm [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: With the improvement of China's macro - situation, INE crude oil has significantly re - evaluated compared with international oil prices this week. Affected by Venezuela's return, crude oil prices briefly declined, and the current oil price remains in the previous oscillation range [14]. - **Supply and Demand Changes**: OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The overall OPEC has begun to fully implement the maximum production increase. The US supply shows price elasticity and maintains dynamic production cuts when oil prices are weak. Iran is expected to return to the global supply, but Russia's shipments are still tight, with the planned port loading volume in August reduced to 1.77 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [14]. - **Macro - Politics**: In the macro - aspect, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, better than expected. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, and Trump said that Japan would invest $550 billion in the US. Politically, Iran started post - war negotiations, but no clear announcement has been given to the market [14]. - **Short - term Impact Factors**: The US policy has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on oil prices; geopolitical factors are neutral to positive [15]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors**: Global supply and demand and macro - politics are generally neutral to negative, and oil prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [19]. 2. Macro & Geopolitics - **Short - term High - Frequency Indicators**: Various macro - indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship with WTI oil prices [36]. - **Medium - term Forecast Indicators**: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption are analyzed [39]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: Important geopolitical events include the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, Libya's plan to increase production, the supply disruption in Iraq's Kurdish region, Venezuela's resumption of production, and Iran's negotiations with E3 [42][43]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 spreads of WTI and Brent crude oils are presented [47]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: The spreads of INE/Brent, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai are analyzed [50][55]. - **Product Spreads**: The forward curves of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oils, as well as the spreads of RB/HO and LGO/RB are shown [57][61]. - **Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented [65][68][71]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC + have a series of production adjustment decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and production increases [77]. - **Supply Situation**: Various data charts show the production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected production outages of OPEC and OPEC + countries [79][84][88]. - **Supply: US** - No detailed content is provided in the given text after the "Supply: US" section.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, zinc prices are expected to remain bearish as domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to factors such as the dovish atmosphere of the Federal Reserve, high concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market, and strong overall commodity sentiment [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - only trading position of 234,600 lots. LME Zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 188,300 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,770 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 20 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 70 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 76 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 599,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, domestic zinc ore production was 322,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 0.8%. The net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of - 32.9%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 13.8% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, zinc ingot production was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. The net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively. In June 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In June 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 15,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to June was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 67,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to April was a surplus of 127,700 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was relatively high, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased, showing a bullish trend from the position perspective [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - side**: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - **Demand - side**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - **Imports and Exports**: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Profit**: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Spreads**: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - **Prices and Ratios**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Weekly Output**: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Building Material Transactions**: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - **Related Prices**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - **Total and Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The primary lead production rate declined slightly, while the secondary lead production rate increased from a low level, maintaining a relatively loose supply of lead ingots. The price of lead-acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the purchasing of downstream battery manufacturers improved slightly. However, according to SMM information, the Middle East will impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 25% to 70% on some Chinese or Chinese-invested lead-acid battery enterprises, which will suppress the consumption expectation of lead ingots to some extent. Overall, the supply and demand of lead ingots are slightly in surplus, and there are deliveries in both domestic and overseas inventories. It is expected that the domestic lead price will run weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.36% at 16,958 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 106,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 2.5 to $2,030.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 140,700 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 65,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 60,000 tons, with an internal primary basis of -135 yuan/ton and a spread of -30 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first consecutive contract. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was recorded at 269,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 70,800 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was -$24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$58.2/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was recorded at 1.17, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was -834.57 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 14,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 439,000 tons, equivalent to 26.4 days. The imported TC of lead concentrates was -$60/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary production rate was recorded at 63.37%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the scrap lead inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 32,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 10,000 tons. At the demand end, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 02. Primary Supply - Import and Production Data: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -1.2% and a month - on - month change of -7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrates was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - Total Supply: In June 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrates was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In April 2025, the global lead ore production was 380,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.3% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to April, the total production of lead ore was 1,483,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 14,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 439,000 tons, equivalent to 26.4 days. The imported TC of lead concentrates was -$60/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting Data: The primary production rate was recorded at 63.37%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In June 2025, China's primary lead production was 328,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.2% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to June, the total production of primary lead ingots was 1,884,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.2% [26]. 03. Secondary Supply - Raw Material and Production: At the secondary end, the scrap lead inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 32,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 10,000 tons. In June 2025, China's secondary lead production was 286,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -13.6% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to June, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 1,933,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.1% [31][33]. - Import and Total Supply: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of -22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 04. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - Battery Export: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It is estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of -16.9% and a month - on - month change of -5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by -3.1% year - on - year [41]. - Inventory Days: In June 2025, the enterprise finished - product inventory days slightly decreased to 26 days, and the distributor inventory days slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the current high vehicle ownership and high replacement demand for existing vehicles support the relatively high operating rate of starting batteries and domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country drive the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 05. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - Global Balance: In April 2025, the global refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 6,900 tons. From January to April, the cumulative global refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 3,700 tons [65]. 06. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 65,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 60,000 tons, the internal primary basis was -135 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first consecutive contract was -30 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was recorded at 269,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 70,800 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was -$24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$58.2/ton [73]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was recorded at 1.17, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was -834.57 yuan/ton [76]. - Position Analysis: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned to net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mineral end news disturbances have intensified the bullish sentiment, leading to consecutive sharp increases in lithium carbonate contracts on Thursday and Friday. Long - position funds are trading on the strong expectation of supply - demand recovery, but the actual fundamentals have not yet reversed. The downstream is skeptical about the sustainability of lithium prices, and the spot market is operating cautiously. Given the increased risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market and potential contagion of fear on Monday, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize entry points according to their own operations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming earnings reports of overseas mining companies and changes in the overall atmosphere of the industrial chain and commodity market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12]. - **Supply**: This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week due to some manufacturers' maintenance. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In July, the overseas supply pressure is relatively small [12]. - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association expects the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July to reach about 1.01 million, with the penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6%. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [12]. - **Cost**: On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12][20]. - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is about - 350 yuan, and the net short position of lithium carbonate contracts has increased significantly [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 9,780 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week. In June 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, an 8.3% month - on - month and 17.9% year - on - year increase, with a 43.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase [31]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 39,450 tons, an 11.3% month - on - month and 32.5% year - on - year increase, with a 73.8% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 19,480 tons, an 8.6% month - on - month increase, with a 22.1% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [34]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 7.1% to 13,350 tons, with a 20.9% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 5,810 tons, a 6.7% month - on - month decrease, with an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [37]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure in July is relatively small. In the first half of the year, the total export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate from Chile to China was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The growth of the lithium - salt consumption mainly depends on the development of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited growth [44]. - In June, the production of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.2 million, a 28.3% year - on - year and 2.0% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.457 million, a 38.7% increase. The wholesale sales in June were 1.241 million, a 27.0% year - on - year and 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.447 million, a 37.4% increase. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47]. - From January to May, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 952,000, a 27.7% year - on - year increase, and in the United States were 648,000, an 8.9% year - on - year increase [50]. - In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% month - on - month and 51.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase. The installed capacity of power batteries in June was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month - on - month and 35.9% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% increase [53]. - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, with a 47.8% year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, the output of cathode materials is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. The inventory is still increasing due to the high domestic lithium carbonate output. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [63]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to export rush [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand [74]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate declined, and the tight supply situation in the spot market has eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases, and the trading volume was average. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year to 47 - 52.5 tons, with the average value 2 - 3 tons lower than the previous target [12]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, including the Politburo meeting in China, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. Industrially, the tight supply of copper raw materials remains, but due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, the upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined, and the tight supply in the spot market eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. The increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, and if the US copper tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. The upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 1.07% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper rose 0.02% to 9796 dollars/ton [24]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper showed certain changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 79,580 yuan on July 25, 2025 [26]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price rose first and then fell, and the basis quotation declined with the increase in supply. The spot in East China was at a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday. The LME inventory continued to increase, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import had a small loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) increased [29]. - **Structure**: The contango structure of SHFE copper's near - month contracts expanded slightly, and the contango structure of LME copper contracted slightly [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) of imported copper concentrate increased slightly to - 42.6 dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: No specific content provided. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import loss of copper expanded slightly [42]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 42.7 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 7.1 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons month - on - month. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, and the inventory in Shanghai increased slightly. The number of copper warrants decreased by 22106 to 16133 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [45][48][51]. 4. Supply Side - **Monthly Output of Electrolytic Copper**: According to SMM's survey data, China's refined copper output declined slightly in June 2025, and it is expected to increase again in July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic refined copper output in June 2025 was 130.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 736.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [56]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports were 235 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 1475.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 46.4 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 263.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The imports of anode copper in June were 6.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 38.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The refined copper imports in June were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. The exports of refined copper in June were 7.9 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons month - on - month. The imports of recycled copper in June were 18.3 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 114.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI returning above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved steadily [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the year - on - year output growth was seen in industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators, AC motors, and power generation equipment. The output of power generation equipment continued to grow at a high rate, while the output of color TVs decreased year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year output growth was seen in power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: The domestic real estate data remained weak from January to June. New construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreased year - on - year. The decline in sales and construction areas widened, while the decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in June [87]. - **Downstream Enterprises' Operating Rate**: The operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises declined in June and is expected to continue to decline in July. The operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises rebounded in June and is expected to decline in July. The operating rates of other downstream enterprises such as enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises also showed different trends of decline or increase in June and corresponding expectations for July [90][93][96][99]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper increased by 22396 to 1021138 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2508 contract was 179194 lots (bilateral) [106]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 13.5%. The increase in short - positions was slightly greater than that in long - positions. The proportion of long - positions of LME investment funds declined (as of July 18) [109].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, stainless steel prices have stabilized, and some traders have started speculative stocking. However, with high stainless - steel inventories, the impact of speculative demand is expected to be limited, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. In the context of weak demand, although the ore price has fallen, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the ore price will continue to decline, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell high in the operation. The short - term price range of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11] Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore price has generally declined. The supply of wet - process ore is stable with a stable price, while the price of pyrometallurgical ore is under pressure. It is expected that the nickel ore price will continue to decline due to weak demand [11] - **Ferronickel**: The market sentiment has slightly improved, and the supplier's quotation has increased. The market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom). The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, but there is still an oversupply pressure [11] - **Intermediate products**: The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen. The supply of high - grade nickel matte in July is expected to increase significantly compared with the previous month, and the output of MHP is expected to remain at a high level [11] - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price is running strongly driven by the rise of ferronickel price. The spot trading has turned cold, and the global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel have decreased, with a decline of 0.52% and 0.58% respectively. The LME closing price has increased slightly by 0.07%, and the SHFE closing price has decreased by 0.73%. The import loss has decreased [15] - **Futures market**: The LME nickel open interest has decreased by 3.73%, and the SHFE open interest has increased by 7.71%. The LME inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the SHFE inventory has increased by 0.92% [15] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased by 3.71%, the nickel plate spot inventory has increased by 4.97%, and the nickel bean spot inventory has increased by 0.34% [15] - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined nickel spot premium is relatively strong. The Russian nickel spot premium is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount is 204.70 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than last week [22] - **Secondary nickel price**: The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, and the market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [25] 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 9.8787 million tons as of July 25, an increase of 4.2% compared with the same period last week. The nickel ore price is under pressure, and the prices of some grades of nickel ore in Indonesia and the Philippines are unchanged from last week [32][35] - **Ferronickel**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Intermediate products**: In June, the output of MHP in Indonesia was 39,000 nickel tons, basically unchanged from the previous month, and the output of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant increase from the previous month. As of July 25, the FOB prices of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte and their coefficients to LME nickel are unchanged from last week [42][47] 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, maintaining a historically high level [52] - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Import and export**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Inventory**: The global refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly. The global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 3,654 tons to 204,000 tons, a decline of 1.76% [61] - **Cost**: Not further elaborated in this part 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Cost and price**: Not further elaborated in this part 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel is generally greater than the total demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to reach 166,400 tons [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment space of the bond market in the future may be limited. Although the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market and triggered a certain redemption negative feedback, considering the weak recovery of domestic demand and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. In the medium - to long - term, the bond market should be considered for long - position entry at low levels [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: The economic data remains resilient under the influence of tariffs. The economic growth in the second quarter slightly exceeded expectations, with production outperforming demand. After the tariff relaxation, exports improved, but the sustainability of the "rush - to - export" effect remains to be seen. In June, the CPI rebounded year - on - year, while industrial product prices continued to face pressure. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "big and beautiful" bill, which is beneficial for boosting the U.S. economic growth outlook, but the relaxation of fiscal discipline in some developed countries may lead to an increase in long - term bond yields and risk spill - over effects [10]. - **Foreign Investment**: Foreign investment in RMB assets has generally remained stable this year. The scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds has increased, with the total amount of foreign - held domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, reaching a historically high level. In the first half of the year, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years, especially in May and June when the net - increase scale reached $18.8 billion [10]. - **Social Security Reform**: The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will steadily promote reforms such as the national overall planning of endowment insurance and the delay of the legal retirement age, and cooperate with relevant departments to implement policies and measures for individual pensions [10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to June, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, national tax revenue was 9.2915 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 2.2651 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The national general public budget expenditure was 14.1271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [10]. - **Bond Fund Redemption**: As the bond market continued to adjust, bond funds faced another redemption wave. This week, funds sold a large amount of bonds, with a single - day selling scale approaching 100 billion yuan. Since July, more than 30 bond fund products have announced large - scale redemptions and increased the precision of share net value [10]. - **International News**: In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. The Bank of Japan believes that the trade agreement with the U.S. will reduce uncertainties and expects to have enough data by the end of the year to weigh an interest rate hike [10]. - **Economic Data**: The U.S. durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2 [10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF, and 100 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits. With 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan in MLF, and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, the net investment was 10.95 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.65% [11]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.74%, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 BP; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.99%, a week - on - week increase of 9.15 BP. The latest 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 BP [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, considering the weak domestic demand recovery and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. However, the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market. At the current position, the adjustment space of the bond market is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to enter the market at low levels. The recommended strategy is to go long at low levels with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months [11][13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL through multiple charts, but no specific analysis is provided [16][19][22][25][28][33]. 3.3. Main Economic Data 3.3.1. Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [42]. - **PMI Sub - items**: In June, both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry improved, with the production side outperforming the demand side. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2% [48]. - **Price Index**: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% [51]. - **Exports and Imports**: In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.13% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.74% year - on - year [54]. - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 4.8% [57]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.8%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 7.5%. The month - on - month decrease in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.6% [60]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In June, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 303.64 million square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.33321 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion data in June decreased by 2.16% year - on - year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [63][66]. 3.3.2. Foreign Economy - **U.S. Economy**: In the first quarter, the annualized U.S. GDP at current prices was 2.9977 trillion dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.3%. In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. The U.S. durable goods orders in June increased by 10.93% year - on - year. The number of non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.0, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8 [69][72][75]. - **EU and Eurozone**: The EU's GDP in the first quarter increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2. The Eurozone's CPI in June increased by 2.0% year - on - year [75][78]. 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In June, the M1 growth rate was 4.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%. The social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were nearly 2.24 trillion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [83]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In June, the growth rate of government bonds in social financing continued to rebound, and the financing of the real - sector improved. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.06%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 21.30% [86]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In June, the MLF balance was 5.15 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net investment through reverse repurchases was 120.11 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.52% [89]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The table shows the changes in various interest rates, including repo rates, Treasury bond yields, and U.S. Treasury bond yields. For example, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 7.07 BP week - on - week, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 BP week - on - week [93]. - **Interest Rate Charts**: The report presents the trends of Treasury bond yields, U.S. Treasury bond yields, and the yields of UK, French, German, and Italian Treasury bonds through multiple charts [95][98]. - **Exchange Rate Chart**: A chart shows the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [99].