大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 行情研判 玉米： 美玉米种植进度加快，美玉米偏弱，中美关税降低，美玉米继续探底。中国对美 玉米回到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22%关税，国外玉米进口利 1 / 5 锦州港平舱价 元 吨 研究员：刘大勇 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2286 | 13 | 0.57% | 28,671 | 45.27% | 77,021 | 8.82% | | C2505 | | 2303 | 16 | 0.69% | 1,988 | -22.01% | 5,698 | 13.82% | | C2509 | | 2404 | 19 | 0.79% | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - PK504 closed at 8090, up 8 (0.10%), with a volume increase of 205.00% to 61 and an open - interest increase of 18.99% to 94 [3] - PK510 closed at 8304, down 6 (-0.07%), with a volume decrease of 37.79% to 43,182 and an open - interest decrease of 1.18% to 138,077 [3] - PK601 closed at 8086, up 10 (0.12%), with a volume decrease of 30.49% to 399 and an open - interest increase of 1.79% to 3,178 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9600, 8600, and 8600 respectively, with no change [3] - Imported Sudanese peanuts were priced at 8300 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Ratios: The basis for Henan Nanyang was 1296, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 296 [3] By - products - Rizhao soybean meal was at 2850 yuan/ton, stable, and peanut meal was at 3250 yuan/ton, with the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal being high [3][8] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 4, up 2; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 214, up 14; PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, down 16 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 was 4.8 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.8 yuan/jin, Henan's Baisha was 4.7 - 4.9 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan was 4.2 yuan/jin [5] - Peanut oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5] - Peanut oil mills' purchase prices were stable, with mainstream prices at 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton and a theoretical breakeven price of 8090 yuan/ton [5] - Short - term peanut prices were expected to be relatively weak due to tight supply and weak downstream demand [5][10] - Peanut 10 was expected to oscillate at a high level due to expected increased planting area, decreased planting cost, and uncertain weather [10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short Peanut 10 at high levels [11] - Spread: Reverse - spread Peanut 10 - 1 at low levels [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, Peanut 10 - 1 spread, and Peanut 3 - 10 spread [16][19][23]

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（25-06-10） 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 08 合约报收 11040 点，下跌-65 点或- 0.59%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，山东民营顺丁 报收 11400-11500 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，华南地区茂 名石化顺丁报收 11600 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11600 元/吨。山 东地区丁二烯报收 9470-9600 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 09 合约报收 13670 点，下跌-55 点或- 0.40%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 13550-13650 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 14900-14950 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 11915 点，下跌-40 点或-0.33%；新加 坡 TF 主力 08 合约报收 160.8 点，上涨+0.7 点或+0.44%。截至前日 18 时，泰标 近港船货报收 1690-1700 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 1680-1700 美元/吨，人民 币混合胶现货 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2277（+11/+0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1870 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1880 元/吨，山西地区报价 2020 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2040 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2180 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2330 元/吨，宁波报价 2380 元/吨，广州报价 2290 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20250531-20250606）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 975353 吨，较上周增加 29300 吨，装置产能利用率为 66.86%，较上周提升 2.01%。周期内，伊朗 ZPC 重启一条产线， Kimiya 正常运行中，南美、东南亚装置略有波动。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Glass Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - Prices of various glass products in different regions changed, with daily changes ranging from -20 to 0 yuan/ton and weekly changes from -70 to -4 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 9, 11, and 12 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly increases of 52, 49, and 52 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract increased by 28,591 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 376,898 hands [3] - The number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts decreased, with daily decreases of 13, 15, and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly decreases of 37, 35, and 36 yuan/ton [3] - The spreads between FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 contracts changed slightly [3] Fundamental Data - Glass daily melting volume and start - up rate remained unchanged week - on - week, with year - on - year decreases of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively [3] - Glass inventory increased by 3.1% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [3] - Profits from different fuels showed different trends, with natural gas profit down 1.6% week - on - week, coal profit down 9.1%, and petroleum coke profit down 4.0% [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Market Situation - The market prices of glass in different regions changed, with decreases in some areas [5] Important Information - The domestic float glass market price was stable with a downward trend, and the production and sales in most regions were average [6] - Yihai Dabo (Dalian) Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 520 tons/day stopped production [7] Logical Analysis - The glass price rose while soda ash fell, and the black varieties weakened, but the main glass contract exceeded 1,000 yuan [7] - The market was trading on the cold - repair expectation of glass, but there was uncertainty, and the price might continue to decline [7] - The policy had limited impact on the post - real - estate cycle products, and the downstream demand was expected to be weak in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [8] - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing glass basis, spreads, positions, trading volumes, inventory, and profits over different time periods [9][13]

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 纯碱期货日报 :lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 1 / 5 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场 | （元/吨） | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/6 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质 | （送到） | 1300 | 1300 | 1350 | 0 | -50 | | 华东重质 | （送到） | 1350 | 1350 | 1380 | 0 | -30 | | 沙河重质 | （送到） | 1242 | 1252 | 1235 | -10 | 7 | | 西北重质 | （出厂） | 1030 | 1030 | 1050 | 0 | -20 | | 华中轻质 | （出厂） | 1200 | 1220 | 1250 | -20 | -50 | | 华东轻质 | （出厂） | 1250 | 1280 | 1280 | -30 | -30 | | 华北轻质 | （出厂） | 1300 | 1300 | 1350 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 市场概况 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/12 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2927 | 2943 | 2913 | 2996 | -16 | 14 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 8.5 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 14.3 | -0.9 | -2.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 28950 | 44390 | 0 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3514 | 3525 | 3466 | 3518 | -11 | 48 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.8 | 7.1 | ...

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/06/09 | 2025/06/06 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2507 （主力） | 3488 | 3509 | -21 | -0.60% | | BU2508 | 3505 | 3488 | 17 | 0.49% | | BU2509 | 3488 | 3445 | 43 | 1.25% | | SC2507 | 474.3 | 466.1 | 8.2 | 1.76% | | Brent首行 | 65.62 | 65.20 | 0.4 | 0.64% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 151.76% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 26.4 | 10.7 | 15.7 | 147.32% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 91510 | 91510 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU07-08 | (17.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are rising in the oil market, with the Russia - Ukraine situation remaining unclear and the US continuing to sanction Iran. Meanwhile, China - US trade negotiations are advancing, and the North American crude oil supply is expected to tighten during the peak season. The Brent crude oil price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and trade between $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [1][2]. - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the East China region. With a strong cost side and an expected tight supply during the peak season, the asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong, with the BU main contract operating between 3500 - 3650 [4][6]. - The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increased supply, with a weakening fundamental situation as both port and factory inventories increase [6][7][8]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has active spot window transactions, supporting the recovery of the spot premium. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has a continuous increase in supply and weak downstream demand [9][10][11]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see a price rebound due to increased demand, while the European natural gas price has risen due to supply disruptions in Norway [12][13]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, maintaining a tight balance. The short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related product markets are facing weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [14][16][18]. - The benzene - ethylene market has an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, with an expected increase in port inventory and a weakening of the spot basis [21][22][23]. - The polyolefin market has a large new - capacity production pressure on the supply side and weak downstream demand, with a weak expected supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand expectation in the medium - to - long - term, while the caustic soda market's 09 contract is expected to be weak [26][30]. - The glass market has a weak short - term price trend, with a focus on cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium - term. The soda - ash market has a pressure of over - capacity, and both suggest paying attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [31][33][37]. - The urea market is currently in a situation of large domestic supply and weak demand, with a short - term weak trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the Indian tender [38][39]. - The methanol market has a loose domestic supply, and although it may follow the upward trend in the short - term, a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [41][42]. - The paper - related markets, such as corrugated paper, log, double - offset paper, and pulp, are facing different degrees of supply - demand pressure and challenges [43][44][46]. - The rubber - related markets, including butadiene rubber, natural rubber, and 20 - number rubber, have different supply - demand and inventory situations, with corresponding trading strategies proposed [50][52][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2407 settled at $64.58, up $1.21 per barrel (+1.91%); Brent2508 settled at $66.47, up $1.13 per barrel (+1.73%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 467.9 yuan/barrel and 475.9 yuan/barrel in night trading [1]. - **Related News**: Tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US sanctions on Iran. China - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The number of US oil - drilling rigs decreased, while the number of natural - gas drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical and macro factors drive up oil prices. The market has an optimistic expectation of supply - demand balance, but the sustainability of inventory reduction during the peak season is a key concern [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatile and strong, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weakening; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3534 points (+1.61%) in night trading, and BU2512 closed at 3358 points (+1.39%) [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions have different trends, with supply and demand affected by factors such as weather and refinery maintenance [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Weak supply and demand in East China, strong cost side, and expected tight supply during the peak season [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and strong; the asphalt - crude oil spread is in high - level oscillation; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [6]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4092 (-0.22%) in night trading, and PG2508 closed at 3998 (-0.05%) [6]. - **Related News**: The northern market price is stable, and the southern market is generally stable with some areas declining [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: International prices have decreased. Supply has increased, and demand in the combustion sector is expected to be weak, while demand in the chemical sector is expected to increase. Inventories have increased [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is mentioned in the provided content. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2946 (-0.10%) in night trading, and LU08 closed at 3546 (+0.51%) [9]. - **Related News**: Indian fuel demand has increased, and the US has imposed sanctions on Iran - related entities [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has active spot transactions, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous increase in supply and weak demand [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.784 (+2.91%), TTF closed at 36.251 (+2.91%), and JKM closed at 12.645 (-0.2%) [12]. - **Related News**: US natural - gas inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and Norwegian natural - gas supply decreased due to maintenance [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural - gas demand is expected to increase, and European natural - gas prices have risen due to supply disruptions [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; the TTF price is expected to be volatile and strong [13]. PX, PTA, and Related Products - **Market Review**: PX2509, TA509, etc. have corresponding closing prices and price changes [14][16]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of PX and PTA plants have increased, and the sales of polyester products are weak [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Both supply and demand of PX and PTA are increasing, maintaining a tight balance. Downstream polyester products face inventory and demand pressure [14][16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading; long PX and short PTA for spreads; sell both call and put options for options [14][16][19]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Review**: EB2507 closed at 7078 (-0.10%) during the day and 7114 (+0.51%) in night trading [21]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of benzene - ethylene has increased, and the operating rates of downstream products have decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, port inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis has weakened [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and weak for single - side trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for spreads; sell call options [23]. Polyolefin - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP have different price trends in different regions [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP are stable, and the inventory of main producers has increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: New - capacity production pressure on the supply side and weak downstream demand [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price may rebound due to macro and oil - price factors, hold a wait - and - see attitude; hold a wait - and - see attitude for spreads and options [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic - soda spot prices have different trends [26][27]. - **Related News**: The prices of related products such as liquid caustic soda and calcium carbide have changed [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market has a weak supply - demand expectation in the medium - to - long - term, and the caustic - soda 09 contract is expected to be weak [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for PVC in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; short caustic soda on rallies; arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread for caustic soda after the spot weakens; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 997 yuan/ton (+3.53%) and 1000 yuan/ton (+0.30%) in night trading [31]. - **Related News**: Glass production, profit, and inventory data have changed, and market prices in different regions have different trends [31][32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium - term [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds; hold a wait - and - see attitude for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda - Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash futures 09 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton (+0.7%) and 1214 yuan/ton (+0.2%) in night trading [34]. - **Related News**: Soda - ash production, profit, and inventory data have changed, and downstream inventory days have increased [34][35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production has increased, demand has short - term stability but medium - term concerns, and there is a pressure of over - capacity [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds; hold a wait - and - see attitude for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1720 (-1.09%), and spot prices have decreased [38]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production has decreased slightly, and the operating rate is high. The export situation is being discussed [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is large, demand is weak, and enterprises are in the inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the results of the Indian tender [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the content. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2269 (+0.13%), and spot prices vary in different regions [39][42]. - **Related News**: Methanol production has increased, and the international device operating rate has improved [41][42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is loose, and although it may follow the upward trend in the short - term, a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase the short; hold a wait - and - see attitude for spreads; sell call options [43]. Paper - Related Products - **Market Review**: The prices of corrugated paper, log, double - offset paper, and pulp have different trends [43][44][46][48]. - **Related News**: There are changes in production capacity, inventory, and market news in the paper - related industries [43][44][45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Different paper - related markets face challenges such as supply - demand imbalance, over - capacity, and weak demand [43][44][46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for log, such as holding a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [47]. Rubber - Related Products - **Market Review**: The prices of butadiene rubber, natural rubber, and 20 - number rubber have different trends [50][54][55]. - **Related News**: There are investment projects in the rubber industry, and inventory and operating - rate data have changed [51][52][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Different rubber - related markets have different supply - demand and inventory situations [52][55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for different rubber products, such as holding long positions for RU and NR, and holding spread positions [53][57].