Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall egg supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low costs, and weak demand have pushed egg prices to their lowest levels in recent years. The recent rebound in egg prices is mainly due to pre - holiday stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to decline. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens decreased as egg prices rebounded [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3366, down 52 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3432, down 38; JD09 remained unchanged at 3193 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 66, down 14; the 05 - 09 spread was 239, down 38; the 09 - 01 spread was - 173, up 52 [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.11, down 0.02. Other ratios also showed minor changes [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin; the average price in sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions were stable, with some fluctuations in a few areas [3]. - **Culled Hen Prices**: The average price of culled hens was 4.55 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in most regions increased [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean粕 was 3012 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per laying hen was 30.93 yuan, down 1.04 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. It is estimated that the inventory from September to December 2025 will be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [7]. - **Culling Volume**: In the week of September 18, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: In the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8]. - **Profits**: As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit per laying hen was 2.97 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/hen from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The current high supply, low demand, and low egg prices have led to an initial increase in culling enthusiasm. However, as egg prices rebounded, the culling willingness decreased. The recent slowdown in market sales is due to the end of pre - holiday stocking [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to decline and then adjust next week as the pre - festival stocking nears its end, and the old hen price is likely to weaken with limited decline [5]. - Considering the current fundamentals, the egg price may face pressure in the short - term as stocking ends, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - This week, the average egg price in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.29 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.82 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The national egg price first rose and then fell. Next week, it may decline and then adjust. - The old hen price first rose and then fell. Next week, it is expected to weaken with a limited decline, and the weekly average price may be between 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin [5]. - **Supply Analysis** - From September 4 - 11, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.48 million, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week. - In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 will be approximately 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of September 19, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3012 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2555 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.81 yuan/jin for eggs. - As of September 11, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On September 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 3.01 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.96 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. - **Demand Analysis** - As of September 11, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7303 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. - As of September 11, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. - The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded, with the national average pork wholesale price around 15.58 yuan/kg as of September 18, showing little change from the previous week [16]. - **Trading Strategies** - Trading logic: As the restocking of each link nears its end, the egg spot price has declined. Short - selling at high prices can be considered. - Single - side: Consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - Data on the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from 2018 - 2025 is presented, including historical and future estimated data [21]. - **Culling Situation** - Data on the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 - 2025 is provided [22]. - **Cold - Storage Eggs** - No specific content is provided. - **Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation** - Data on the culling age of hens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas are involved, but no specific values are given [26]. - **Price Difference and Basis** - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts and price differences such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 are presented from 2018 - 2025 [29][30][33].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices Fluctuate Weakly as New Cotton Approaches the Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition phase, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. With the arrival of the peak season in September, the improvement in downstream demand is relatively limited. It is expected that the cotton market will show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries may lead to selling hedging pressure on the market. [26][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to move in a range - bound manner. As of September 14, the boll opening rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 9%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 52%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts reached 42,200 tons, a 44% weekly increase and a 13% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Vietnam contracted 17,500 tons and India contracted 9,500 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 27,300 tons, an 8% weekly decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of September 12, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 986 to 19,135, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 283 to 43,577, equivalent to 990,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. [8] - **Brazil**: Brazil's cotton harvest is basically completed. The processing progress as of September 11 was 36%. Due to the slow harvest, the processing was behind schedule, and the short - term export of new Brazilian cotton declined. According to the quality report in August, indicators such as micronaire and strength declined compared to last year. [8] - **India**: In the week from September 11 to September 17, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 44.1 mm, 11.3 mm higher than the normal level and 33.4 mm higher than last year. From June 1 to September 17, 2025, the cumulative rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas was 893.1 mm, 147.6 mm higher than the normal level. [8] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA September global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons. [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The new - season cotton is at the end of the boll - opening stage. In some areas of northern Xinjiang, seed cotton has been sporadically listed, with the purchase price at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton for wadding is 7.45 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and in inland areas, the price of hand - picked seed cotton is 7.35 - 7.4 yuan/kg. The purchase price is slightly weak, and the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The supply of high - quality old cotton is limited, and the price is firm. As of September 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143,800 tons (a decrease of 10.16%) compared to last week. [26] - **Demand Side**: In the pure - cotton yarn market, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline this week, and cotton yarn futures followed suit. In the spot market, the trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the atmosphere was not as good as in previous peak seasons. The price of cotton yarn followed the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price center shifted downward. The inventory of yarn decreased this week, but the decline rate slowed down. [26] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR was 0.7569, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 1.0303. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today, indicating obvious bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. [40] Futures Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly move in a range - bound manner in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [44] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic - international cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend. - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and fabric, is presented. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report provides data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory over different time periods. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton.

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The poor quality rate of early - maturing apples implies a potentially poor quality rate for Fuji apples. Considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9]. Summary by Section Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.43, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. Prices of various apple varieties such as those from different regions remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 6.75, up 0.02 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8291, up 18; AP05 at 8219, down 7; AP10 at 8452, up 11. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 was - 673, down 18; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 was - 855.0, down 11; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 was - 619, up 7 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from the previous week. The inventory turnover rate slightly accelerated [6]. - **Trade Data**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a 44.95% increase from the previous month. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month but an 8.47% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 8.66 tons, a 29.76% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The transaction price of cold - storage apples in the origin was stable last week, with an increase in packaging quantity and smooth shipments. The supply of Hongjiangjun apples was sufficient, but the supply of high - quality goods was limited. The purchase enthusiasm of wholesalers was fair. The high - price transactions of pre - harvested Fuji apples in the northwest region were reported [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of apple storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia during the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - **Spot Price Details**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 first - and second - grade apples varied according to different sources and colors. The price of Hongjiangjun apples was 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected impact of continuous rainfall in the western region on quality, but considering the current high prices, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, new - season apples may have a poor quality rate, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the price trends of different apple varieties, basis, spreads between contracts, apple arrivals at wholesale markets, and the prices of 6 kinds of fruits over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Dual - Festival Stockpiling Progresses, Apple Prices Stable [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples, the price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is large. The expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but the current futures price is not low, so the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season Fuji will have a significant impact on the futures market [16]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 4.1.1 Spot Analysis - During the week, the stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals continued. The bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji was sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing. In Shandong, the trading price of Red General apples varied widely due to quality differences, with low - quality apples having a price advantage. In the west, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was ending, and some merchants started to order pre - harvested Fuji at a higher price than last year. The inventory of apples in Shandong decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was low [7]. - In Shandong Qixia, the price of farmers' 80 and above general apples was 2.1 - 3.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 3.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 first - and second - grade patchy red apples were 3.0 - 4.0 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 and above low - quality Red General apples was 1.6 - 1.8 yuan/jin, and good - quality ones were 2.5 - 2.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of large - diameter mid - and late - maturing varieties such as Qin脆 and Mid - Autumn King was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above high - quality early - maturing Fuji was around 3.8 yuan/jin, and the general price was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of Mid - Autumn King was 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, Qin脆 was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin, and Yanfu 10 was 4.8 - 5.0 yuan/jin [7]. 4.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this period and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 96.96%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume was slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and the cold - storage was gradually being cleared [12]. - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 16.32 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons from last week. The inventory shipment in Shandong slowed down due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [12]. 4.1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles increased slightly compared to last week, with an average of 31.8 vehicles per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - maturing Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala in baskets was 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones were 6 - 7 yuan/jin. The price of Hongqian Fuji was 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of Jingning Red Star in boxes was 5 yuan/jin. With the approaching of the dual festivals, the market was stockpiling, but the overall sales were average, and there was a backlog in the transfer warehouse [15]. - On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the middle level in recent years [15]. - From 2024 - 2025, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week. The market arrival volume increased this week, the overall sales were good, and the price remained stable [15]. 4.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji, the initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be relatively high. However, considering the current high futures price, the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season apples will have a significant impact on the market [16]. - Single - side: In the short term, apples are expected to fluctuate due to the expected poor quality rate. The previous high is expected to be the recent high, and there will be significant selling and hedging pressure after the new - season apples are on the market [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 4.2 Weekly Data Tracking 4.2.1 Apple Supply and Demand - The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20]. 4.2.2 Inventory and Shipment - The report shows the inventory trends of national, Shandong, and Shaanxi apple cold - storages from 2016/17 - 2024/25, as well as the national cold - storage apple shipment trends during the same period [23][24]. 4.2.3 Spreads and Basis - The report provides data on the current and previous closing prices, price changes of AP01, AP05, AP10, and their spreads, as well as the basis data of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and different - month contracts from 2019 - 2025 [26]. 4.2.4 Spot and Futures Prices - The report shows the current price, previous - day price, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples, Penglai first - and second - grade 80 apples, and other spot prices, as well as the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a trend of weakening oscillations. Internationally, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate, while domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker [8][27]. - In September, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With high expected production in Xinjiang and low enthusiasm among ginning mills for acquisition, large - scale panic buying is not expected. There will be selling hedging pressure on the market as new cotton is listed in large quantities. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the peak season, the improvement is limited, and the boosting effect on the market is also limited [27][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the flocculation rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. The growth was accelerating compared to the previous period, and the progress caught up with the five - year average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of September 4, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 2.94 tons, a 47% weekly decrease and a 33% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 2.95 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 5, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1671 to 20121, a reduction of 40,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to the September 2024/25 production forecast by CONAB, the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 4.061 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 66.1mm, 28.3mm higher than the normal level and 17.6mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 - September 10 was 849mm, 107.5mm higher than the normal level [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the USDA's August global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Outlook**: As new cotton enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Supply Side**: The new - season cotton is growing well, maintaining a harvest expectation. As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of September 5, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4156 million tons, a decrease of 131,400 tons (8.49%) from the previous week [27]. - **Demand Side**: Although it has entered the peak demand season, the downstream demand change is not obvious. As of mid - August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, and the gray fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of September 11, the mainstream spinning mills' operating load was 66.5%, a 0.76% increase from the previous week [27]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The HV on the previous day was 10.44697, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: The PCR on the previous day was 0.7370, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.7253. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly oscillate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. It is recommended to short at high prices [45]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton gray fabric load, yarn inventory days, and gray fabric inventory days are provided, showing the mid - end situation of the cotton industry [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Historical data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are provided [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn, including the basis of different contract months and the basis of US cotton, is provided [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/22 | 2025/9/19 | 2025/9/15 | 2025/8/25 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2784 | 2796 | 2799 | 2907 | -12 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 20.6 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 13.1 | -1.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 127140 | 127140 | 101500 | 73710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3382 | 3392 | 3375 | 3526 | -10 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 0.1 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 10020 | 11110 | 0 | | FU1-5 | 41 | 42 | 47 | 41 ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3244 | 3232 | 12 | HC05-RB05 | 144 | 152 | -8 | | RB10 | 3095 | 3078 | 17 | HC10-RB10 | 325 | 347 | -22 | | RB01 | 3182 | 3172 | 13 | HC01-RB01 | 195 | 202 | -7 | | RB01-RB05 | -59 | -60 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | -90 | -94 | 4 | | RB05-RB10 | 149 | 154 | -5 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -78 | -104 | 26 | RB05/105 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 0.02 | | 10合约螺 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Asphalt Daily" dated September 22, 2025, and it provides an analysis of the asphalt market including relevant data, market situations, and market outlooks [1]. 1. Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price dropped from 3421 to 3401, a decrease of 20 or -0.58% [2]. - BU2512 price decreased from 3374 to 3352, a drop of 22 or -0.65% [2]. - BU2601 price fell from 3353 to 3322, a decline of 31 or -0.92% [2]. - SC2510 price went down from 487.0 to 483.0, a decrease of 4.0 or -0.82% [2]. - Brent first - line price dropped from 66.76 to 66.46, a decrease of 0.3 or -0.45% [2]. - Main contract positions increased from 23.2 to 23.6 million lots, an increase of 0.4 or 1.83% [2]. - Main contract trading volume decreased from 18.0 to 16.7 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 or -6.92% [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 63680 to 59380 tons, a decrease of 4300 or -6.75% [2]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 spread increased from 21.00 to 30.00, an increase of 9.00 or 42.86% [2]. - BU11 - 12 spread increased from 47.00 to 49.00, an increase of 2.00 or 4.26% [2]. - Shandong - main contract basis increased from 276.00 to 288.00, an increase of 12.00 or 4.35% [2]. - East China - main contract basis increased from 126.00 to 148.00, an increase of 22.00 or 17.46% [2]. - South China - main contract basis increased from 116.00 to 138.00, an increase of 22.00 or 18.97% [2]. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3510, a decrease of 10.00 or -0.28% [2]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3500 [2]. - South China market price remained unchanged at 3490 [2]. - Shandong gasoline price decreased from 7483 to 7464, a decrease of 19.00 or -0.25% [2]. - Shandong diesel price increased from 6438 to 6453, an increase of 15.00 or 0.23% [2]. - Shandong petroleum coke price remained unchanged at 2860 [2]. - Diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at -6.5 [2]. - Exchange - rate mid - price decreased from 7.1128 to 7.1106, a decrease of 0.00 or -0.03% [2]. Spreads and Profits - Asphalt refinery profit increased from -26.81 to -16.44, an increase of 10.37 or 38.69% [2]. - Refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 350.43 to 367.40, an increase of 16.97 or 4.84% [2]. - BU - SC crack spread increased from -569.26 to -559.53, an increase of 9.73 or 1.71% [2]. - Gasoline spot - Brent spread increased from 949.74 to 950.03, an increase of 0.29 or 0.03% [2]. - Diesel spot - Brent spread increased from 714.97 to 745.34, an increase of 30.37 or 4.25% [2]. 2. Market Analysis Market Overview - On September 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3782 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - In North China, the main refineries of 70 and 90 asphalt had limited shipments, and the market price was stable [5]. - In Shandong, the demand was average, and there were many low - price resources. The price of the main refineries' asphalt might be lowered [5]. - In South China, the overall refinery inventory was controllable, supporting price stability [5]. - In East China, the main refineries had stable shipments under preferential policies, but there were still many low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and the market trading was tepid [5]. - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3630 - 3750 yuan/ton. Rainfall inhibited demand, and with the resumption of production of some refineries, the supply was sufficient. The spot price dropped to about 3470 yuan/ton, and the price of the main refineries might be loosened [5]. - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3650 - 3650 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was tepid, and the cost was average. The downstream users preferred low - price resources in Zhenjiang. In the short term, the asphalt price might show a weak trend [5]. - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, high - speed projects were rushing to work, and some social warehouses increased shipments before the typhoon. In Guangxi, the project construction was stable, and the local refinery inventory was low. The typhoon weather had a slight impact on project construction and shipments, but the overall inventory pressure was not large, which was beneficial for price stability [6]. Market Outlook - Oil prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking effective support at the cost end [7]. - The weekly asphalt production has been increasing, and the industry chain is still destocking. The current demand level is basically the same as in previous years, and the peak - season expectation has been fulfilled [7]. - The refinery processing profit is acceptable, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to further increase. The continuous destocking of social inventory increases the supply, and the asphalt supply - demand tends to be loose, with relatively high valuation [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the crack spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3450 [7]. 3. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local - refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][15].