1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC futures market is in a state of continuous game regarding future shipping company resumptions. The EC futures market maintains an overall volatile trend, influenced by factors such as shipping company resumptions, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7]. - The spot market is in a downward trend, with freight rates expected to remain stable around the Spring Festival and decline during the post - Spring Festival off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of shipping companies in the Red Sea [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Data** - Various EC futures contracts show different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, EC2604 closed at 1,247.6 points on February 4, up 0.78% from the previous day [4]. - The month - spread structure of futures contracts also shows different price differences and changes [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Most container freight rates are showing a downward trend. For example, the SCFIS European Line index was 1,792.14 points, down 3.61% month - on - month and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - WTI and Brent crude oil prices show different degrees of month - on - month increases and year - on - year decreases [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - MSK announced the resumption of the ME11 route in February, but the geopolitical situation may offset some of the resumption expectations. The market is continuously gaming the future resumptions of shipping companies [6]. - The spot market is in a downward trend, with demand peaking and then declining, and supply increasing in March. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and weather conditions affect port operations [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Temporarily hold off on trading due to the suppression of far - month contracts by resumption progress and the continued game of near - month contracts on geopolitical factors [9]. - Arbitrage trading: After taking profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high prices, temporarily hold off on trading and wait for opportunities to roll over at low prices [10]. 3.3 Industry News - On February 3, 2026, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced the resumption of the ME11/IMX India - Mediterranean route via the Suez Canal, and the resumptions of the AE12/SE1 and AE15/SE3 routes are under coordination [11]. - The Italian dockworkers' union announced a 24 - hour general strike on February 6, 2026, covering all ports [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the trends of container freight indices and prices, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, and SCFI comprehensive index [12][19][22].

研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询号：Z0023508 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 金银 【市场回顾】 1.金银市场: 今天白天，金银延续震荡上行走势，市场情绪进一步回暖。至下 午三点，伦敦金交投于 5070 美元附近，伦敦银交投于 89.6 美元附近。受外盘联 动，沪金主力合约最终收于 1141.7 元/克，涨幅 7.29%，沪金加权日增仓 1002 手 至 31.66 万手; 沪银主力合约最终收于 23511 元/千克，涨幅 11.22%，沪银加权日 增仓 27949 手至 61.15 万手。 2.人民币汇率: 人民币兑美元汇率延续升值走势，至下午 3 点交投于 6.936 附 近。 【重要资讯】 1.海 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 4, the ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5654, up 0.6% with a decrease of 12,529 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5868, up 0.55% with a decrease of 6,808 in positions [5]. - For silicon iron, the spot prices on the 4th showed mixed trends. The supply is expected to decline in the future, demand may decrease due to seasonal production cuts by steel mills, and the cost support is strong. The previously recommended long positions can be held [5]. - For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot was generally stable on the 4th, and the manganese silicon spot was slightly weak. The supply is stable, demand may decrease due to steel mill production cuts, and the cost support is also strong. The previously recommended long positions can be held [5]. - For trading strategies, the sentiment in the commodity market has eased, and the alloy cost support is strong. The previously recommended long positions can be held; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5654, up 34 from the previous day and 22 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 93,117 (down 10,574 from the previous day) and an open interest of 102,056 (down 12,529 from the previous day) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5868, up 32 from the previous day and 36 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 118,851 (down 16,005 from the previous day) and an open interest of 354,221 (down 6,808 from the previous day) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon iron: The spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, the price in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton [3][5]. - Manganese silicon: The spot prices in some regions decreased by 30 yuan/ton [3][5]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon iron: The basis between different regions and the main contract showed different changes. For example, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 234, down 34 from the previous day and up 48 from the previous week [3]. - Manganese silicon: Similar to silicon iron, the basis and spread also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore: The prices of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin were relatively stable, with only a slight change in the price of South African semi - carbonate [3]. - Lanthanum charcoal small materials: The prices in different regions remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Hold the previously recommended long positions as the commodity market sentiment has eased and the alloy cost support is strong [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Important Information** - On the 4th, the quotes of different types of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were provided [7]. - In January, the electricity prices in production areas continued to show a widening gap, with the electricity price in Qinghai rising again [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Multiple charts were provided, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM, the inter - monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot prices of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloy, the production cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon [8][9][12][14][16][17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply pressure of live pigs is relatively high, and the overall price is declining. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter volume has decreased, it is still relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers remains normal, and the number of secondary fattening entries has decreased. The supply pressure may improve, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the later supply pressure may still be obvious. The overall direction of the live pig spot market is expected to be downward, and the pig price still has a certain downward pressure. The live pig futures price showed a slight increase today, with obvious support in the far - month futures market. In the near - term market, the slaughter pressure of live pigs may continue, but there may be certain support on the spot side, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the medium - term, the overall direction of the spot market will still be downward, and the futures market may show certain support [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price was 11.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg compared with yesterday. The prices in various regions all declined, with the largest decline of 0.51 yuan/kg in Zhejiang and Jiangxi, and the smallest decline of 0.09 yuan/kg in Sichuan [1] 3.2 Futures Price - The live pig futures prices showed a slight increase today. For example, LH01 increased by 100 to 13355, LH07 increased by 125 to 12295, LH09 increased by 155 to 13210, and LH11 increased by 170 to 13130 [1] 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price was 366 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week; the sow price was 1557 yuan, unchanged from last week [1] 3.4 Contract Spread - LH7 - 9 was - 915, a decrease of 30 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 1 was - 145, an increase of 55 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 11 was 8, an increase of 8 compared with yesterday; LH11 - 1 was - 225, an increase of 70 compared with yesterday [1] 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume was 190958 heads, a decrease of 816 compared with yesterday [1] 3.6 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.69, an increase of 0.01 compared with yesterday; the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs was 0.25, a decrease of 0.04 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs was 0.83, an increase of 0.08 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs was 1.08, an increase of 0.04 compared with yesterday [1] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce and exit the long positions of the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a slightly stronger oscillating trend today, with the black - metal sector rebounding as a whole. However, the overall spot trading volume was generally weak, showing a slight improvement compared to yesterday [6]. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with the production of hot - rolled coils increasing faster than that of rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar seeing inventory accumulation while hot - rolled coils were still in the process of destocking. The overall social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory [6]. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in building material demand. Although steel exports have declined recently, there is still a demand for pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry. The demand for hot - rolled coils is still increasing, performing better than the same period last year, and the pre - holiday demand is acceptable. For raw materials, there is still a rigid demand for restocking by steel mills, providing cost support [6]. - In February, steel mills will start production suspension and maintenance. The fundamental logic may gradually shift from restocking to winter storage. The winter demand will decline marginally, and the inventory will continue to accumulate, which also limits the further upward space of steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will lack fundamental drivers before the holiday and will continue to oscillate within a range following macro - economic sentiment. Overall, steel prices will still face pressure after the holiday [6]. - Today, there were market rumors that the Indonesian government proposed a large - scale production cut plan. Currently, Indonesian coal mines have suspended their export plans, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke, and the short - term market sentiment is strong. In the future, continue to pay attention to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro - economic and industrial policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was priced at 3110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was 3160 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; RB01 was 3182 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 narrowing by 2 yuan to 81 yuan, and RB05 - RB10 widening by 2 yuan to - 50 yuan. The rebar profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 20 yuan to - 168 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 20 yuan to - 118 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 16 yuan to - 106 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions remained mostly unchanged, with only the price of Tangshan Tanggang rebar dropping by 10 yuan to 3060 yuan/ton. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of rebar in different regions also changed, with the profit of Shandong rebar dropping by 106 yuan to - 430 yuan, and the profit of Tangshan rebar dropping by 8 yuan to - 306 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 was priced at 3274 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from yesterday; HC10 was 3296 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; HC01 was 3323 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 widening by 4 yuan to 49 yuan, and HC05 - HC10 narrowing by 1 yuan to - 22 yuan. The hot - rolled coil profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 22 yuan to - 18 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 19 yuan to 18 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 12 yuan to 26 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with the profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coils increasing by 1 yuan to - 385 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropping by 1 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan (unchanged) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Before the holiday, follow the trend of coking coal and coke and maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 60.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 55.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [9]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quota issued by the Indonesian government to major miners last month was 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level as part of the plan to boost coal prices. The main industry associations in Indonesia oppose this move, warning that it may lead to layoffs and mine closures. In early January 2026, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia said that the Indonesian government may cut the coal production quota in 2026 to about 600 million tons. At the same time, Indonesia also plans to impose a tariff on coal exports in 2026 [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China [15][17][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of the meal market is under pressure, and the prices are generally declining. The international soybean market is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices may face pressure. The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened, while the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened. The trading strategy suggests a bearish view for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [1][3][4][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The US biodiesel policy has improved demand, but the impact is limited. South American market quotes are slightly down, and US soybean price decline supports the Brazilian quotes. The domestic soybean meal market is at a low level. Concerns about future arrivals have decreased, increasing the downward pressure. Rapeseed meal also shows downward pressure, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expanding, and the near - month spreads of both are decreasing [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean carry - over stocks are raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market forecast of 292 million bushels, mainly due to increased planting area. Quarterly grain inventory data is also bearish. Although US soybean exports have improved, the supply - demand situation is still loose. In South America, Brazilian new - crop soybeans are growing well, and exports are expected to increase. Brazilian old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on exports and crushing has eased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened. Oil mill operating rates are increasing but at a slower pace.提货量 has decreased slightly, and inventory is declining. Market transactions have increased significantly. As of January 30, the actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2961 million tons, the operating rate is 63.16%, soybean inventory is 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 3.56% from last week and an increase of 44.77% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory is 930,400 tons, an increase of 3.54% from last week and 3.54% year - on - year. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. Oil mill operating rates have increased, but rapeseed supply is low, and granular rapeseed meal inventory is still high, so there is supply pressure. As of January 30, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory is 1,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on soybean crushing is limited, and further upward momentum for US soybeans is weak. The recent rise in the US dollar index may not be sustainable. International market uncertainties mainly come from weather. In the domestic market, future soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot market provides some support, but the upside for the futures market is limited. Rapeseed meal also faces downward pressure. As imports increase, the supply will improve. The demand for rapeseed meal may improve with the tightening of soybean meal supply, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread will expand. The near - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Adopt a bearish view - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit data from different sources (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates are provided, showing the changes in pressing profit compared with the previous day [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides daily data on iron ore futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Price Changes - DCE01 increased from 749.0 to 753.5, a rise of 4.5; DCE05 rose from 777.5 to 781.5, an increase of 4.0; DCE09 went up from 760.0 to 764.5, a gain of 4.5 [2] - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, such as PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 783 to 777, a decline of 6 [2] Spread Changes - I01 - I05 spread increased from -28.5 to -28.0, a change of 0.5; I05 - I09 spread decreased from 17.5 to 17.0, a change of -0.5; I09 - I01 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [2] - Spot variety spreads also had changes, e.g., the spread between Newman powder and Jinbuba powder decreased from 48 to 47, a change of -1 [2] Import Profit Changes - Import profits of some iron ore varieties changed, like PB powder's import profit decreased from 24 to 20, a reduction of 3 [2] Index Changes - The price of Platts Iron Ore 61% decreased from 102.4 to 102.0, a reduction of 0.4; Platts Iron Ore 65% price dropped from 118.4 to 118.0, a decrease of 0.4; Platts Iron Ore 58% price fell from 94.1 to 93.4, a reduction of 0.8 [2][4] Basis and Other Data - The optimal delivery product is Karara powder, with 01 - contract basis of 63, 05 - contract basis of 35, and 09 - contract basis of 52 [2] - The differences between SGX and DCE contracts also changed, e.g., SGX main - DCE01 increased from 4.6 to 4.7, a change of 0.1 [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to previous lows and then rose significantly. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's production may exceed expectations, but several institutions predict a decline in sugar production and an increase in consumption for the 2026/27 season [8]. - In the domestic market, sugar is in the peak pressing period, and this season's production is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, due to the sharp rebound of international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, the pressure on domestic sugar prices is expected to ease, and prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to do the same. In the aspects of arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with an increase of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with an increase of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with an increase of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Bayuquan 5460 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 110, 250, 205, and 540 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (an increase of 5), SR09 - SR05 was 4 (a decrease of 6), and SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (a decrease of 1) [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.20, and freight of 32.75, the in - quota price was 3965 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5035 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 325 yuan/ton, with Rizhao was 380 yuan/ton, and with the futures price was 283 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.05, and freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4010 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5094 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 266 yuan/ton, with Rizhao was 321 yuan/ton, and with the futures price was 224 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, Guangxi had a cumulative sugarcane crushing volume of 3343.06 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 309.71 million tons), sugar production of 402.90 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 78.80 million tons), a sugar production rate of 12.05% (a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points), cumulative sugar sales of 155.06 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 83.03 million tons), and a sales - to - production ratio of 38.49% (a year - on - year decrease of 10.94 percentage points). In January, the monthly sugar production was 208.71 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.15 million tons), monthly sugar sales were 66.58 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.29 million tons), and industrial inventory was 247.84 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.23 million tons) [5]. - As of January 31, 2026, Yunnan had a cumulative sugarcane crushing volume of 814.47 million tons (compared to 678.24 million tons in the same period of the previous season), sugar production of 98.41 million tons (compared to 83.71 million tons in the same period of the previous season), a sugar production rate of 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season), and produced 1.15 million tons of alcohol (compared to 0.76 million tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative new sugar sales were 53.20 million tons (compared to 45.22 million tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% last year). In January, the monthly sugar production was 59.18 million tons (compared to 51.02 million tons last year), sugar sales were 25.06 million tons (compared to 18.51 million tons last year), industrial inventory was 45.21 million tons (compared to 38.48 million tons last year), and alcohol sales were 1.06 million tons (compared to 0.75 million tons last year) [6][7]. - As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 season, 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started production. The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 350.458 million tons (compared to 338.31 million tons last year), sugar production was 34.44 million tons (compared to 34.14 million tons last year), the sugar production rate was 9.827% (compared to 10.09% last year), sales were 20.57 million tons (compared to 28.93 million tons last year), inventory was 13.87 million tons (compared to 5.21 million tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 59.73% (compared to 84.74% last year). In January, the monthly sugar production was 25.78 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.27 million tons), and sugar sales were 18.85 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons) [7]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost finished, and its exports have decreased. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. India's production may increase more than expected, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, sugar prices have rebounded after reaching previous lows. Domestically, sugar is in the peak pressing period, and production is likely to increase significantly, but the pressure on prices is expected to ease due to the rebound of international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to do the same. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis and spreads of different sugar futures contracts (such as 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month), etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][14]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/4 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7924 | -2 | -0.03% | 14,182 | 35.30% | 55,386 | 4.27% | | PK610 | 8238 | 6 | 0.07% | 107 | 67.19% | 2,717 | -0.37% | | PK601 | 8232 | 22 | 0.27% | 46 | 2200.00% | 30 | 7.14% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 | 3 ...