1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations on the pulp market, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions cover futures and spot prices of different pulp types. Important news includes company - related events, project investments, and international trade situations. Logical analyses are based on various economic and industry data, and trading strategies offer suggestions for single - sided and arbitrage trading. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Futures market shows various trends such as weak, small, and high - level oscillations. For example, on 25 - 06 - 09, the SP main 09 contract was in a weak oscillation, closing at 5222 points, down 2 points or 0.04% [1]. - Spot prices of different pulp types (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural, and chemical mechanical) vary in different regions. For instance, in the Shandong market on 25 - 06 - 06, the import coniferous pulp market had relatively light trading, and prices of some brands were adjusted with the market [5]. Important News - North American paper giant Georgia - Pacific plans to permanently close its Cedar Springs box - board paper mill later this year, affecting about 535 jobs and with an annual capacity of 1 million tons [1]. - China's C&D Group plans to invest $2 billion in a pulp and finished paper production project in Vietnam's Quang Binh province [11]. - In 2025, India's paper and board imports reached a record 2.05 million tons, and imports from China increased by 33% [8]. Logical Analysis - In April, European coniferous pulp consumption decreased by 17.6% year - on - year, and domestic living paper production increased by 9.4% year - on - year in May, which is favorable for the broad - needle price difference [6]. - As of the end of last Friday, the inventory of the SHFE SP contract decreased by 75.6% year - on - year, while the social inventory of domestic pulp in five ports increased by 33.4 million tons year - on - year [1]. Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Suggestions include holding long positions, waiting and seeing, and making small - scale trial purchases. For example, on 25 - 06 - 09, it was recommended to wait and see for the SP main 07 contract and pay attention to the support at last Friday's low [1]. - Arbitrage trading: Usually involves waiting and seeing or reducing positions and waiting. For example, on 25 - 06 - 09, it was recommended to wait and see for the arbitrage strategy (long - short) [1].

锌：供应端逐渐放量 锌价偏弱震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 交易逻辑与策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 矿端，5月预计国内北方矿山基本完成复产。国内锌精矿产量仍持续释放。4月锌精矿进口量环比+37.6%至49.47万实物吨，5月进口窗口偶有打开，预计进口 锌精矿仍维持高位。整体看，5月国内锌精矿供应预计维持偏松，锌精矿加工费或小幅上调。 ➢ 冶炼端，当前加工费仍有上调空间，叠加副产品收益相对可观，冶炼厂仍处于盈利。近期部分前期检修的冶炼厂陆续复工复产，叠加部分冶炼厂提产，预计6月 国内精炼锌产量仍在59万吨以上；近期仍有前期锁价的锌锭陆续到港。整体看，5月国内精炼锌供应仍处于明显增量。 ➢ 消费方面，当前锌消费仍处淡季，但国内"以旧换新"政策对消费仍有一定提振。关注基建、汽车、家电等消费的情况。 ➢ 库存数据：截至6月5日， SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.93万吨，较5月29日增加0.43万吨，较6月3日增加0.19万吨。 ...

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 13 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 【交易策略】 单边：震荡偏弱 套利：观望 期权：卖出看涨期权 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 本周纯苯和加氢苯开工提升，纯苯下游需求整体稳定，主港库存小幅下滑，纯苯对苯乙烯价差扩大，纯苯下游利润压缩，山 东流向华东的纯苯套利窗口关闭。6月多套重整和歧化装置检修结束，裕龙DCC、万华乙烯裂解以及埃克森美孚20万吨装置 投产， 裕龙石化乙烯和镇海裂解新装置有投产计划，纯苯进口到港依然偏多，随着纯苯新装置投产增加，纯苯未来供需结构 预计转为宽松。 ◼ 本周苯乙烯供增需减，港口库存小幅上升，苯乙烯现货基差走弱。苯乙烯非一体装置利润收窄，下游3S利润扩大。本周盛虹 45万吨/年苯乙烯装置重启投料，6月中旬，恒力、浙石化检修装置计划重启，苯乙烯供应预期增加。近期苯乙烯到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil spot window transactions are active with high transaction prices, supporting the rebound of high-sulfur spot premiums. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the return of Russian refineries from seasonal spring maintenance. Russia's high-sulfur exports remain stable for now. Mexico's high-sulfur exports are declining as the secondary production capacity of its refineries improves. The US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress, and high-sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to decline in May. On the demand side, the seasonal power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil provides support, with high import demand from Egypt and Saudi Arabia remaining at a high level. - The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil is fluctuating, but the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil continues to increase while downstream demand remains weak. The operation of the FCC gasoline unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery is still unstable, leading to a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. South Sudan's low-sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning to the level at the beginning of 2024, with 8 shipments of low-sulfur cargoes expected to be loaded in May and June. The first shipment of 600,000 barrels in May is expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in late May. Al-Zour's low-sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during normal refinery operations. In the Chinese market, the production plan for low-sulfur fuel oil in June is expected to increase, with sufficient supply and stable demand in the domestic market. - The trading strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading, and a long position in the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. There is no option trading recommendation. [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil: The active spot window transactions and high prices support the rebound of spot premiums. Attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Russian refinery maintenance. Mexico's exports are declining, and Middle East exports are expected to fall in May. Seasonal power generation demand provides support. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium is fluctuating, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Nigeria's Dangote refinery has a continuous supply, South Sudan's exports are recovering, Al-Zour's exports are at a high level, and China's production plan for June is expected to increase. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Gradual Return of Russian Refinery Capacity - The conflict has intensified, and the EU is considering new sanctions. Russian refinery capacity is gradually returning after spring maintenance, with an expected increase in oil product exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse in June. In the first week of June, Russia's high-sulfur exports decreased, and exports to Asia were temporarily halted. [6] 2. Mexico's High-Sulfur Supply Drops to the Level Before the Commissioning of the Olmeca Refinery - The Olmeca refinery's processing volume has stabilized, and its secondary devices are operating smoothly. Other refineries' operating conditions have also changed. In the first week of June, Mexico's high-sulfur exports were around the average level, and total exports in May decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [9] 3. Lack of Substantial Progress in US-Iran Negotiations and Diversion of High-Sulfur Supply in the Middle East Due to Power Generation Demand - The US-Iran negotiations have been ongoing, but there has been no substantial progress. Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue. Saudi Arabia and Iran's summer power generation demand is expected to divert their external supply. In May, high-sulfur exports from the Middle East decreased as expected, and Iran's exports remained at a low level. [12] 4. High-Sulfur Power Generation Demand Enters the Peak Season in the Second and Third Quarters - Egypt's summer power generation demand provides support, with an increase in fuel oil import tenders. South Asia's power generation demand increases in the second quarter. Middle East's high-sulfur power generation demand has increased in advance, with Saudi Arabia increasing imports from Russia. [15] 5. Chinese Refineries' Recent Purchase意愿 May Decline; Feedstock Demand in India and the UAE Increases - Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue, affecting China's fuel oil import costs. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in April remained stable. India's feedstock demand rebounded in May, and the UAE's Ruwais refinery has recent feedstock demand. [18] 6. High-Sulfur Marine Fuel Demand Remains Stable, with Marginal Increases from the Steady Growth in the Number of Ships with Desulfurization Towers - The number of ships with desulfurization towers is growing steadily. Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel sales in April increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the market share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah port also increased. [21] 7. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Sudan's Port Exports are Disturbed by Air Strikes, but South Sudan's Export Tenders Continue - South Sudan's external raw material supply is gradually recovering. After the port was attacked, exports were temporarily suspended and then resumed. There have been multiple export tenders in May and June, with shipments expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in May and June. [24] 8. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Exports from the Middle East's Al-Zour Refinery Remain at a High Level, and Supply to the Pan-Singapore Region Increases Month-on-Month - The Al-Zour refinery has issued new tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. Exports have remained at a high level since March, and exports to the Pan-Singapore region have continued to recover. Attention should be paid to the return of South Sudan's low-sulfur heavy crude oil supply. [27] 9. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Nigeria's Near-Term Low-Sulfur Supply is Abundant, All Directed to Singapore - The FCC gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is still unstable, resulting in a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. The refinery has issued multiple tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. The Harcourt refinery is undergoing maintenance, and the Warri refinery has no crude oil quota. In May, Nigeria's low-sulfur exports were all directed to Singapore, and exports in the first week of June were at a high level. [28] 10. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Demand Lacks Specific Drivers, Marine Fuel Demand is Stable, and Power Generation Economics are Inferior to Natural Gas - Singapore's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in April were stable, with a marginal decline in market share. Fujairah's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in March increased. In Italy, the share of MGO in marine fuel has increased under the influence of ECA. [33] 11. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil in the Chinese Market: China's Bonded Low-Sulfur Production Remains Stable at Around 1 Million Tons - China has issued a second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas, which are currently abundant. In April, domestic refineries' bonded low-sulfur marine fuel production increased. The production plan for May is expected to decline slightly compared to April. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Fuel Oil Spot - Includes price trends of Brent crude oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as price spreads between different fuel oils and Brent crude oil. [39][40][41] High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intertemporal Spreads - Includes ARA Brent Crack spreads, Singapore high-sulfur M1-M2 spreads, and HSFO380 spot premiums. [46][47][51] Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intervarietal Spreads - Includes spreads between different low-sulfur fuel oils and GO, as well as Singapore low-sulfur M1-M2 spreads and spot premiums. [52][53][56] Natural Gas-Fuel Oil Price Ratio - Compares the equal-heat-value prices of different fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF. [59][60] Interregional Freight Reference - Shows freight rates for different routes, such as Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, and Indonesia to Japan. [61][62] Singapore Bunkering Spreads - Explains the definitions of MOPS, Ex-wharf, and Delivered prices and shows the spreads between them for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils. [63][64][65] Inventory Structure - Provides inventory data for Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, the US, and Japan, including weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. [66] Northwest European Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for ARA gasoline, diesel, and refined oil products. [69][70] US Gulf Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for US gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil. [71][72] Terminal Sales Structure - In April, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. High-sulfur marine fuel sales increased, while low-sulfur marine fuel sales decreased slightly. [74]

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周PX供需双增，PX 浮动价、基差及月差走弱，PX装置提负及检修重启，PXN价差走弱。下游PTA供增 | | | | 需减，PTA社会库存去库放缓，基差偏强，月差走弱，加工费先强后弱。 | 单边：高位震荡 | | PX& | 6 月 PX 开工率提升明显，PTA多数前期检修装置重启，虹港石化3期250万吨PTA新装置计划投产，供需 | 套利：多PX空PTA | | PTA | 双增的格局下PX仍将维持紧平衡。聚酯下游季节性淡季，聚酯工厂效益不佳，开工走弱，6月PTA去库斜 | 期权：双卖期权 | | | 率预计放缓。 | | | | 下周乙二醇进口到港量约13.7万吨，下游聚酯产销偏弱，码头提货有限，乙二醇港口库存预期上升，乙二 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The peanut market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to low supply. Although the price of general peanuts is stable, the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height. It is recommended to short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts is average. The prices of general peanuts, oil - mill purchase prices, and imported peanuts are stable. The import volume has decreased significantly, the oil - mill operating rate has declined, peanut meal prices have slightly dropped following soybean meal, and peanut oil prices are stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, with the oil - mill peanut oil inventory decreasing and the peanut inventory remaining high. Recently, the weather in Henan and other places has been dry, but the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height [4]. - **Strategy**: Short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: In the domestic market, peanut prices in the Northeast and Henan production areas have risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 4.2 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.8 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.05 yuan per catty from last week. The price of general peanuts has slightly increased. The oil - mill purchase price is stable, generally between 7350 - 7700 yuan per ton. The price of imported Sudan peanuts is 8300 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [8]. - **Domestic Demand**: The oil - mill operating rate has decreased. As of June 5, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 8.42%, a 3% decrease from last week. The oil - mill peanut inventory is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.01 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week [11]. - **Pressing Profit**: The peanut - purchasing price of peanut oil mills is stable, the peanut meal price has dropped, and the peanut oil price is stable. The oil - mill pressing profit is 39 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan per ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 15000 yuan per ton, and the price of small - pressed fragrant oil is 17000 yuan per ton, both remaining stable from last week. Due to the drop in soybean meal prices, the peanut meal price has dropped to 3200 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton from last week [14]. - **Basis and Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see. This week, due to the rise in the price of 10 - contract peanuts, the 10 - 1 spread has remained stable at around 250 yuan [18]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: In April, 12,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to April, 54,000 tons were imported, a 78% decrease from the same period last year. In April, 18,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, and from January to April, 63,000 tons were exported, a 27% increase from the same period last year. In April, 27,000 tons of peanut oil were imported, and from January to April, 114,000 tons were imported, a 23% increase from the same period last year [23]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: The data shows the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the price of oil - mill peanut purchases, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [7]. - **Domestic Demand**: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill operating rate, peanut kernel inventory, and pressing volume [10]. - **Pressing Profit**: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill pressing profit, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The data shows the trends of the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts and the 10 - 1 spread [17]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: The data shows the trends of peanut kernel imports and exports and peanut oil imports [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The price below 440 cents per bushel has limited downside potential. Northeast corn prices are stable, while North Port inventory continues to decline, with stable spot prices. In North China, the supply of corn is increasing, causing spot prices to fall. As wheat is gradually entering the market with weak prices, the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed to around 0 yuan per ton. There is still room for spot prices to rise due to a shortage of corn this year. The 07 futures contract is oscillating at the bottom, but considering the large number of warehouse receipts and weak acceptance willingness, the futures price must be at a discount. The 09 futures contract is expected to have limited upside due to potential state grain reserve sales and acceptance time factors. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is decreasing, but downstream demand remains weak, with reduced提货. Starch inventory has slightly decreased. Corn prices in the Northeast and North China are falling, while by - product prices have slightly increased. Spot starch prices are stable, and factory losses are decreasing. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will continue to decline, and there is still room for spot starch prices to rise. The 09 starch futures contract is experiencing large losses, and the price difference between the 09 corn and starch futures contracts is expected to widen [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: US corn planting progress is accelerating, but weather factors may still be hyped later. There is support around 420 cents per bushel. Port inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream restocking continues, so corn spot prices will remain strong. Corn warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still room for the price difference between the 07 futures contract and the spot price to narrow. Considering potential state grain reserve sales and acceptance willingness, the 09 corn futures contract is over - valued, with limited upside. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has slightly decreased. Spot starch prices are stable, and losses are decreasing. The price difference between the 09 corn and starch futures contracts has large losses and room for profit repair, so it is expected to widen. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - sided**: Consider buying US corn 07 below 440 cents per bushel. The 07 corn futures contract will oscillate within a narrow range. - **Arbitrage**: Buy 09 starch and sell 09 corn, entering the market when the spread is below 370. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3][4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **International - Planting Progress and Market Conditions**: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. As of June 1st, the planting progress was 93%, which is the same as the 5 - year average. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. The domestic import profit has expanded, with a profit of 404 yuan per ton for Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port. As of May 29th, the weekly export inspection of US corn was 1.58 million tons, with a cumulative export of 48.58 million tons. The weekly export to China was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.06%. In April, 180,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to April, a total of 440,000 tons were imported, compared with 9.08 million tons in the same period last year. The non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and ethanol production has rebounded [8][9]. - **Domestic - Inventory and Consumption**: The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has slightly increased. In the 23rd week of 2025 (May 31st - June 4th), 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2077 million tons of corn, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has slightly increased, but it is expected to decrease next week. As of June 4th, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.654 million tons, a 2.81% increase from the previous week. The corn inventory of feed enterprises has decreased but is higher than the same period last year. As of June 5th, the average inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 35.35 days, a decrease of 1.19 days from the previous week and a 12.15% increase from the same period last year. North Port corn inventory and South Port grain inventory have both decreased [17][20]. - **Starch - Production and Inventory**: The operating rate of starch factories has decreased. From May 31st to June 4th, the national corn processing volume was 551,700 tons, and the starch production was 267,900 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 51.78%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous week. Spot starch prices are stable, and losses have decreased. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. As of June 4th, the corn starch inventory was 1.404 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.57% week - on - week, 0.57% month - on - month, and a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [23]. - **Substitutes - Wheat Prices**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The factory - delivered price in North China is around 2,430 yuan per ton, and the price is weak. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, North China corn prices have fallen, while Northeast corn prices have risen, narrowing the price difference between North and Northeast China. The price difference between North China corn and the 09 futures contract has also decreased [30]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, from May 31st to June 4th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 95 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 39.5 yuan per head, also an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week. For white - feather broilers, the breeding profit was 0.19 yuan per chicken this week, compared with 0.23 yuan per chicken last week. For laying hens, the breeding cost this week was 3.50 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.61 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.56 yuan per catty last week [37][41]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar has changed. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup this week was 54.9%, an increase of 0.68% from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 47.97%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 64.49%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 68.48%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week [44]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Information on price trends such as the FOB price at Jinzhou Port, the ex - factory price of Weifang starch, and the price differences between wheat, sorghum, and corn is presented through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as reduced production, seasonal decline in demand, high supply, and potential negative feedback [2][3]. - The double - coking market has a marginal reduction in coking coal supply, but the inventory pressure remains. The current price increase is considered a phased rebound, and the improvement of the supply - demand relationship needs further observation [8]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate as the core factors driving price changes are weak, and there will be repeated games in the off - season [12]. - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 218.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.05 million tons, and the apparent demand was 229.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8%), a week - on - week decrease of 19.65 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 328.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 million tons, and the apparent demand was 320.92 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 2.86%), a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons. The total inventory increased by 7.83 million tons. The overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 million tons. In late May, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.091 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector rose in the night session yesterday. Steel production decreased overall this week. Entering the off - season, the apparent demand for steel declined rapidly, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The supply is still high, and coal - coke prices drag down the cost of steel. There is a risk of negative feedback, and the steel price trend is downward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Hold the short position on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [3][6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.899 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19 million tons. The raw coal inventory was 6.708 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 297 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 745 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18 million tons. The clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 77 million tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points. The average daily pig - iron output was 2.418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 60.5 million tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, the macro - sentiment improved, and the coking coal price rebounded significantly in the night session. The coking coal price still showed a slight decline in the spot market, and the third - round price cut of coke has been partially implemented. The supply of coking coal has a marginal reduction, but the inventory pressure remains. It is considered a phased rebound for now [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see mainly, or try short positions lightly at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [8]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 247,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US trade deficit in April was $61.6 billion, the smallest since August 2023. The ECB cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 728 yuan (-5), and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 64 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 1.07% in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and it is in the seasonal peak of shipments. On the demand side, the pig - iron output in May was at a high level, and the terminal demand is resilient. The market may repeatedly game on the weak reality in the off - season, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate. Use 9/1 positive spreads for arbitrage mainly. Wait and see for options [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: A silicon - manganese plant in Shanxi reduced production by 50 tons per day in June. On the evening of June 5, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and the atmosphere was positive [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: On May 5, the spot price of silicon iron was stable with a weak trend. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand from the steel industry has declined. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The silicon iron is expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment. The manganese - ore price was weak on May 5. The supply of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the demand was suppressed. The manganese - silicon market also rebounds following the macro - sentiment [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The ferroalloy is expected to rebound in the short term following the macro - sentiment. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell call options at high prices [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom, and market sentiment declined at the phased bottom. The core factors driving market ups and downs in the short term are weak. Overall, the current terminal steel demand has entered a seasonal off - peak season on a month - on - month basis, and funds may trade the weak reality of the terminal. However, the downward space for iron ore prices at the current valuation bottom is small, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy suggests a sideways movement for single - side trading, a long 9/1 inter - period spread for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are at the bottom and fluctuating, with weak short - term driving factors. Terminal steel demand is in a seasonal off - peak, but the downward space for iron ore prices is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: sideways movement; Arbitrage: mainly long 9/1 inter - period spread; Options: wait - and - see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Mainstream mines entered the shipping peak, and domestic arrivals increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. However, the total shipments of mainstream mines from the beginning of the year still contributed to a reduction, and the replenishment volume since the second quarter was limited. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/3.8 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.25 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.1%/4.4 million tons, and Brazil's were 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%/5.4 million tons [6][8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments increased rapidly on a week - on - week basis. The current shipping level is close to that of the same period last year, but it has little impact on the overall supply. From a monthly perspective, the year - on - year reduction in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse in the short term. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4%/4.8 million tons [11][12]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025 to date, domestic hot metal production increased by 3.8%/13.8 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2%/8.9 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand decreased by 3.1%/6 million tons year - on - year, while non - building material demand increased by 5.3%/10.5 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) increased by 1.5%/5.1 million tons year - on - year. Although the overall growth rate of manufacturing steel demand has slowed down, it is expected to maintain its resilience [24][27]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased slightly year - on - year [3]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the congestion decreased rapidly, and the total inventory of steel mills' iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, but the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. The current total iron element inventory is at a relatively low level in the past five years, which provides certain support for iron ore price valuation [14][16][22]. Price and Spread - **Price**: The prices of imported iron ore at ports, including the 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, and Qingdao Port Carajás fines price, are presented in the report [33][34]. - **Profit**: The import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, etc., are shown, and the profits of East China's mainstream steel mills are running at a low level [35][36][37]. - **Spread**: The differences between domestic and foreign US dollar prices, the basis rate of iron ore, and the spreads between different contracts are analyzed. The basis of the iron ore main contract is expected to converge, and the 9/1 inter - period spread is expected to widen [39][40][44]. Scrap Steel - This week, the total daily consumption of 255 steel mills' scrap steel was 542,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 173,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. The total inventory of 147 steel mills' scrap steel was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from last week [42]. Domestic Iron Concentrate - The production, demand, and inventory data of domestic iron concentrate, including the production of domestic iron concentrate, North China iron concentrate, and the inventory of 363 mines' iron concentrate, are provided [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international methanol device operating rate has declined from a high level, with some devices in the Iranian region experiencing short - term outages. The daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 29,000 tons, but it remains at a high level. The import volume in May is expected to exceed 120 tons, and it will increase significantly to over 130 tons in June. The downstream demand is stable, and as the arrival volume increases, the ports start to accumulate inventory. Meanwhile, due to the continuous decline of domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the scale of spring maintenance is less than expected, resulting in a continuous and loose domestic supply. Currently, the phased external procurement of CTO in the inland region has ended, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to accumulate. The tight supply situation has been alleviated to some extent. At the same time, the downstream resists high prices, and the inland auction prices have continuously declined. However, the operating rate of MTO has increased, the port demand has risen, and bulk commodities are oscillating strongly. Methanol has followed the upward trend in the short term, but in the long - term, a bearish approach should be adopted, and short - selling on dips is not recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market oscillated, closing at 2263 (+7/+0.31%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line and northern line was 1880 yuan/ton, while in consumption areas, the price in the southern part of Shandong was 2130 yuan/ton, and in ports, the price in Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - From May 30 to June 5, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% [5]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but the demand is weak, and the raw coal price is oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 500 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains high and stable, with a continuous and loose domestic supply [6]. - Import side: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined from a high level, the US dollar price has risen slightly, and imports remain profitable. Some Iranian devices have restarted, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, the overseas operating rate has increased from a high level, and the European and American markets are differentiated. The import volume in June is expected to be 1.35 - 1.4 million tons [6]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has increased, with some MTO devices in different enterprises operating at different loads [6]. - Inventory: Imports are gradually resuming, demand is rigid, and imports are profitable. Port inventories have reached the bottom, and the basis is consolidating. Inland enterprise inventories have started to rise [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies, do not chase the decline [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell call options [10].