Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices in the container shipping market continue to decline, and the EC futures market shows a volatile downward trend. It is expected that the decline rate will slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down compared to the first half due to tariff pressure [5][6]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in cape - size ship freight rates. The short - term freight rates of large vessels are expected to be supported, but there is a risk of a callback. The medium - sized vessel market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [16][20]. - In the tanker shipping market, the crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the product oil market shows a downward trend due to reduced market inquiries. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Spot prices continue to fall, with some shipping companies' quotes dropping to around $1300. The EC futures market is in a volatile downward trend. The SCFI European Line index has decreased, and it is expected that the decline will slow down in mid - to late October. The impact of Poland's border closure on China - Europe freight trains continues [5]. - Shipping companies are lowering spot prices, and the price difference among mainstream shipping companies is narrowing. The demand in the peak season has declined, and some shipping companies have announced sailings suspension. The US - China tariff negotiation has made progress, and the freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down [6]. - Trading strategies include a volatile outlook for the single - side market. There may be a small downward adjustment space for the valuation of the 10 - contract, and short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 12 spread at low levels and conduct forward arbitrage on the 2 - 4 spread at low levels [9][10]. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September. The global proportion of empty container transportation is rising. Some shipping companies have stated their attitudes towards the port fee collection by the USTR on October 14th [11][12]. - The situation in the Red Sea involves military actions by the Israeli army and potential progress in Syria - Israel security talks [13][14]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in cape - size ship freight rates. The cape - size ship freight rate index reached a new high since August 14th, while the panamax ship freight rate index dropped to the lowest since September 8th [16]. - The spot freight rates of cape - size ships on iron ore routes increased, and the weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed different trends. The shipping volume of iron ore and grain increased [17][19]. - The freight rates of cape - size ships in the Pacific market rose due to good cargo demand, while the panamax ship market saw a slight decline in freight rates due to reduced South American grain cargo. The short - term freight rates of large vessels are expected to be supported, but there is a risk of a callback. The medium - sized vessel market is expected to show a volatile trend [20]. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP. Brazil's grain export volume is expected to increase. Japan's coal imports increased in August [22][23]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Crude Oil Transportation Index (BDTI) rose, while the Baltic Product Oil Transportation Index (BCTI) remained flat. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, and the product oil market shows a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [24]. Industry News - The European situation is unstable, and the domestic refined oil retail price may be raised on September 23rd. The demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to be boosted. Russia's oil transportation company issued a production cut warning, and the international crude oil price rebounded [25][28]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, BDI Index, BCTI Index, etc., to visually display the market trends of different shipping sectors [29][42][46].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy Daily) [2] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closing price 5756, daily change -10, weekly change 130, trading volume 319809, daily change 154140, open interest 207907, daily change 5613 [4] - SM main contract: closing price 5970, daily change -20, weekly change 132, trading volume 246049, daily change 76765, open interest 335397, daily change 8548 [4] Spot - Silicon ferro - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., 72%FeSi Inner Mongolia 5450 (0 daily, 40 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., silicon manganese 6517 Inner Mongolia 5730 (0 daily, 50 weekly) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -306 (10 daily, -90 weekly), SF - SM spread -214 (10 daily, -2 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -240 (20 daily, -82 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 40.2 (0.2 daily, 0.4 weekly), South African semi - carbonate 34.3 (0 daily, 0.3 weekly), Gabon lump 40 (0 daily, 0 weekly) [4] - Blue charcoal small materials: different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., Shaanxi 660 (0 daily, 10 weekly) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Sell straddle option combinations [7] Silicon Ferro - On September 18, the spot price was stable. Supply rumors were false, and the supply remained high. Demand had rigid support from steel production. Market sentiment was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic asset price adjustments, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [6] Manganese Silicon - On September 18, manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the manganese silicon spot price was stable. Supply was high, demand was affected by reduced rebar production, and the cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore. It was in a short - term bottom - oscillating state [6] Group 4: Important Information - On September 18, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.02% was quoted at 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump Mn47% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn41.7% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate block at 4.05 US dollars/ton degree (unchanged) [9] Group 5: Related Attachments Figures - Figures show ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, spreads, production costs, and profits in different regions and time periods, such as silicon ferro and manganese silicon monthly spreads, cost - profit analysis in various regions [10][14][16][21][26] Cost - Profit Tables - Silicon ferro cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu [21] - Manganese silicon cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou [26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black sector declined slightly, and spot trading was generally weak. This week, the production of the five major steel products showed differentiation. Affected by losses, EAF steel production decreased, and long - process production lines also shifted production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other products continued to increase production. Currently, it is still the off - season for steel demand, and the demand recovery is average. The reduction in rebar production has led to an overall inventory decline, while other products have seen an overall inventory increase. Based on the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain high this week, but as the weather gradually cools down, steel demand may show some improvement next week, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. Recently, there have been many market news, and combined with the previous decline of the black sector, the valuation is low. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre - National Day restocking, there is support for the black sector. If the downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect the market fluctuations. Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 3204 yuan/ton, RB10 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3054 yuan/ton, and RB01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit decreased by 19 yuan to - 104 yuan, the 10 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to - 243 yuan, and the 01 - contract decreased by 2 yuan to - 134 yuan [3] - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, and Tangshan Tanggang decreased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 10 yuan respectively, while Shandong Shiheng increased by 20 yuan. The profit of rebar in different regions decreased, with Shandong's profit dropping by 107 yuan to - 492 yuan [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 3367 yuan/ton, HC10 decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 3397 yuan/ton, and HC01 decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 3354 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit decreased by 18 yuan, the 10 - contract decreased by 17 yuan, and the 01 - contract decreased by 17 yuan [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang remained unchanged. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions showed some changes, with Tianjin's profit increasing by 8 yuan to - 207 yuan and East China's profit increasing by 7 yuan to - 71 yuan [3] Part 2: Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3210 yuan (- 20), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3420 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3340 yuan (-) [7] - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and consider going long with a light position on dips [9] - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [9] - Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01 [9] - **Important Information** - As of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The rate for non - housing projects increased by 0.18 percentage points to 61.21%, while that for housing projects decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 50.58% [9] - This week, the small - sample rebar output was 206.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 million tons, and the apparent consumption was estimated at 210.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 17.8%), a week - on - week increase of 11.96 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 326.49 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 million tons, and the apparent consumption was estimated at 321.82 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.08%), a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 million tons. The total inventory increased by 4.67 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 1.78 million tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons, the social inventory increased by 6.27 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.13 million tons [11] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, and cost differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on iron ore futures and spot markets on September 18, 2025. 3. Key Points from the Report Futures Prices - DCE01 was at 800.0, down 4.5 from the previous day; DCE05 was at 778.5, down 4.0; DCE09 was at 759.0, down 4.5 [2]. - The spread I01 - I05 was 21.5, down 0.5; I05 - I09 was 19.5, up 0.5; I09 - I01 was -41.0, unchanged [2]. Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) was at 783, down 2; Newman powder was at 793, unchanged; Mac powder was at 784, down 1; etc. [2]. - The optimal deliverable was Roy Hill powder at 847, with a 01 - contract basis of 35, 05 - contract basis of 57, and 09 - contract basis of 76 [2]. Spot Price Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder was 131, unchanged; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder was 26, up 1; etc. [2]. Import Profits - Carajás fines had an import profit of 4, up 4; Newman powder had an import profit of 0, up 4; PB powder had an import profit of -2, up 1; etc. [2]. Index Prices - The Platts 62% iron ore price was 105.6, down 0.3; Platts 65% was 122.1, down 0.6; Platts 58% was 93.7, down 0.1 [2]. 内外盘美金价差 - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE01 was 7.1, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05 was 9.8, down 0.5; SGX main - DCE09 was 12.2, down 0.6 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - Total open interest was 405,154 contracts, an increase of 25,806 contracts from the previous day [5] - The main contract was at a discount of 21.6 points, a decrease of 13.79 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -52.88% [5] - The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.51 points, 3.27 points, 4.4 points, and 5.94 points respectively [5] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,476.40 | -1.04% | 39,860 | 32% | 65.4 billion | 33% | | | | IM2509 | 7,454.80 | -1.19% | 118,769 | -3% | 17.94 billion | -2% | 55,453 | -33,716 | | IM2510 | 7,370.20 | -1.44% | 72,033 | 98% | 10.77 billion | 99% | 80,608 | 22,685 | | IM2512 | 7,213.40 | -1.51% | 197,746 | 95% | 28.93 billion | 96% | 190,972 | 32,009 | | IM2603 | 7,000.00 | -1.68% | 40,425 | 56% | 5.76 billion | 57% | 78,121 | 4,828 | [3] Basis and Other Data - The cash index of CSI 1000 closed at 7,476.40. The current month contract (IM2509) was at a discount of 21.60 points, with an annualized basis rate of -52.9%. The next month contract (IM2510) was at a discount of 106.20 points, with an annualized basis rate of -17.5%. The first quarterly contract (IM2512) was at a discount of 263.00 points, with an annualized basis rate of -14.3%. The second quarterly contract (IM2603) was at a discount of 476.40 points, with an annualized basis rate of -13.5% [17] IF Futures Market Summary - Total trading volume of the four contracts was 220,019 lots, an increase of 57,520 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 288,603 lots, an increase of 14,691 lots from the previous day [27] - The main contract was at a discount of 10.91 points, a decrease of 13.09 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -44.37% [27] - The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.05 points, 5.36 points, 8.56 points, and 16.4 points respectively [27] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 300 | 4,498.11 | -1.16% | 30,986 | 31% | 84 billion | 38% | | | | IF2509 | 4,487.20 | -1.35% | 65,747 | -10% | 8.94 billion | -10% | 39,525 | -22,028 | | IF2510 | 4,476.00 | -1.37% | 41,117 | 99% | 5.57 billion | 99% | 48,286 | 14,444 | | IF2512 | 4,448.20 | -1.47% | 95,637 | 66% | 12.88 billion | 66% | 152,375 | 18,854 | | IF2603 | 4,418.00 | -1.56% | 17,518 | 53% | 2.35 billion | 53% | 48,417 | 3,421 | [26] Basis and Other Data - The cash index of SSE 300 closed at 4,498.11. The current month contract (IF2509) was at a discount of 10.91 points, with an annualized basis rate of -44.4%. The next month contract (IF2510) was at a discount of 22.11 points, with an annualized basis rate of -6.0%. The first quarterly contract (IF2512) was at a discount of 49.91 points, with an annualized basis rate of -4.4%. The second quarterly contract (IF2603) was at a discount of 80.11 points, with an annualized basis rate of -3.6% [39] IC Futures Market Summary - Total trading volume of the four contracts was 236,268 lots, an increase of 72,444 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 271,127 lots, an increase of 19,056 lots from the previous day [49] - The main contract was at a discount of 28.28 points, a decrease of 20.64 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -71.97% [49] - The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.31 points, 3.92 points, 5.8 points, and 10.55 points respectively [49] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,199.88 | -0.83% | 34,859 | 35% | 60.42 billion | 36% | | | | IC2509 | 7,171.60 | -1.00% | 63,994 | -5% | 9.29 billion | -4% | 35,612 | -20,830 | | IC2510 | 7,114.40 | -1.00% | 46,677 | 94% | 6.71 billion | 96% | 57,570 | 17,427 | | IC2512 | 6,985.40 | -1.18% | 101,129 | 79% | 14.29 billion | 80% | 130,507 | 19,424 | | IC2603 | 6,819.60 | -1.23% | 24,468 | 50% | 3.38 billion | 51% | 47,438 | 3,035 | [48] Basis and Other Data - The cash index of CSI 500 closed at 7,199.88. The current month contract (IC2509) was at a discount of 28.28 points, with an annualized basis rate of -72.0%. The next month contract (IC2510) was at a discount of 85.48 points, with an annualized basis rate of -14.6%. The first quarterly contract (IC2512) was at a discount of 214.48 points, with an annualized basis rate of -12.1%. The second quarterly contract (IC2603) was at a discount of 380.28 points, with an annualized basis rate of -11.1% [55] IH Futures Market Summary - Total trading volume of the four contracts was 100,595 lots, an increase of 35,836 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 114,842 lots, an increase of 10,071 lots from the previous day [64] - The main contract was at a discount of 1.03 points, a decrease of 3.85 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.43% [65] - The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 5.25 points, 7.5 points, and 15.3 points respectively [65] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,912.83 | -1.35% | 7,486 | 32% | 22.58 billion | 46% | | | | IH2509 | 2,910.80 | -1.45% | 31,314 | 6% | 2.76 billion | 5% | 18,625 | -9,707 | | IH2510 | 2,911.80 | -1.36% | 18,385 | 118% | 1.62 billion | 117% | 20,104 | 7,313 | | IH2512 | 2,912.40 | -1.37% | 43,865 | 90% | 3.86 billion | 89% | 63,340 | 11,134 | | IH2603 | 2,912.60 | -1.47% | 7,031 | 94% | 0.62 billion | 93% | 12,773 | 1,331 | [64] Basis and Other Data - The cash index of SSE 50 closed at 2,912.83. The current month contract (IH2509) was at a discount of 2.03 points, with an annualized basis rate of -12.7%. The next month contract (IH2510) was at a discount of 1.03 points, with an annualized basis rate of -0.4%. The first quarterly contract (IH2512) was at a discount of 0.43 points, with an annualized basis rate of -0.1%. The second quarterly contract (IH2603) was at a discount of 0.23 points, with an annualized basis rate of 0.0% [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant information**: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Outer - market changes**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - **Important information**: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - **Relevant information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - **Logic analysis**: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Important information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Relevant information**: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - **Logic analysis**: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important information**: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - **Logic analysis**: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - **Important information**: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading logic**: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - **Important information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - **Trading logic**: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market impact**: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - **Important information**: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - **Trading logic**: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a differentiated performance, with rebar likely to continue reducing production and hot-rolled coils likely to resume production. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to peak-season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply side is supported by policies, but the upside potential is restricted by steel demand and profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [9][11]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter and market expectation fluctuations, despite the potential recovery of domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [12][14]. - For ferroalloys, silicon iron may rebound in the short term but is under high - supply pressure, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term due to cost support and supply - demand pressure [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Relevant Information - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi magazine emphasizes the governance of low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [2]. - In early September, key steel enterprises produced 20.87 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.087 million tons, a 7.2% increase from the previous period. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions have changed, with rebar in Shanghai up 20 yuan to 3240 yuan, and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai up 10 yuan to 3410 yuan [2]. Logical Analysis - Affected by positive news, the black - metal sector rose sharply in the night session. Last week, the pig - iron output recovered rapidly, rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar is expected to continue reducing production due to heavy losses, while hot - rolled coils are expected to resume production as they are still profitable. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster than last year, and its apparent demand is declining; hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline, and its demand has improved significantly. Steel prices may face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not happen, but the decline may be limited due to pre - National Day restocking [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Relevant Information - In Inner Mongolia, 15 coal mines had monthly raw coal output exceeding the announced capacity by more than 10% from January to June 2025, including 3 coking coal mines with a total capacity of about 2.7 million tons. One of them has been shut down for rectification. In Tangshan, some steel and coking enterprises have received notices of environmental protection production restrictions [7]. - The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions are provided, such as the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port is 1591 yuan/ton [8]. Logical Analysis - Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be restricted, and it is difficult to return to the high level of the first half of the year. Although imported coal can provide some supplements, the upside potential of coking coal prices is restricted by steel demand and profit [9][11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Considering the recent significant increase, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [11]. - Arbitrage: The long - January and short - May spread of coking coal can be held [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [11]. Iron Ore Relevant Information - In the US, industrial production and retail sales in August increased more than expected. The transaction area of new and second - hand housing in 10 key cities changed last week, with new housing up 4.4% month - on - month and down 5.3% year - on - year, and second - hand housing up 18.7% month - on - month and up 10.2% year - on - year. The inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 506,000 tons to 12.991 million tons from September 8th to 14th. The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port increased, such as PB powder (60.8%) up 9 to 785 yuan [12]. Logical Analysis - In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand maintained high growth. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to market expectation fluctuations [12][14]. Trading Strategies No trading strategies for iron ore are provided in the given text. Ferroalloys Relevant Information - On the 16th, the spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased, and the transaction prices of different varieties also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron increased by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of manganese silicon increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [16][17]. Logical Analysis - For silicon iron, the supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Market sentiment was boosted by anti - involution trading and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, but the high - supply pressure remains. For manganese silicon, the alloy factory output increased slightly, the demand side was under pressure, but the cost side was supported by low port inventory [16][17]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For silicon iron, it may be strong in the short term but under high - supply pressure, with limited upside potential; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to conduct high - level spot hedging [16][17][18]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [18][20]. - Options: For silicon iron, sell straddle option combinations at high prices; for manganese silicon, wait and see [18][20].

国债期货持仓日报 2025年9月17日 国债期货成交概要 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金(亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512 | 108.16 | 0.13% | 101,611 | -27% | 1,098 | -27% | 222,606 | 6,322 | 48.2 | | T2603 | 107.86 | 0.16% | 10,278 | -4% | 111 | -4% | 23,281 | -830 | 5.0 | | T2606 | 107.68 | 0.15% | 231 | 66% | 2 | 66% | 302 | 7 6 | 0.1 | | 合 计 | | | 112,120 | -25% | 1,211 | -25% | 246,189 | 5,568 | 53.2 | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金(亿元） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]