研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 【粕类日报】供应压力仍存 盘面阶段性反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 3047 | - 5 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 1 0 | | 0 5 | 2745 | 4 | 东莞 | 290 | 280 | | | 0 9 | 2863 | 6 | 张家港 | 290 | 280 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 280 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | 2417 | 5 | 南通 | 3 | 8 | - 5 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2349 | 1 2 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Daily Report on December 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated higher, closing at 1721 (+21/+1.24%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable with general trading. Prices in different regions were: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 23, the daily production of the urea industry was 18.98 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.38 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.49%, a 0.62% increase from 77.87% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Conditions: Mainstream factory prices were stable, market sentiment cooled, and trading weakened. Different regions had different situations. Shandong's prices were weakly stable, Henan's prices followed the decline, and the delivery area's prices were firm [5] - Supply: Domestic gas - fired plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained high. India tendered again for a total of 150 tons with a February 2nd shipping date, but the impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer in the Central and Northeast regions was stable. In Henan, environmental protection led to large - scale shutdowns until the end of the month, and overall demand for compound fertilizer slowed. The progress of off - season storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement would slow down [5] - Outlook: In the short term, with the impact of the Indian tender fading and limited export quotas, the downstream resisted high prices, and the trading was weak. In the medium term, the supply - demand fundamentals were still relatively loose, and after price increases in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. The market rumor of export news improved trading in some low - price areas, but overall, a short - selling strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international device operating rate continues to decline, with gas restrictions expanding in Iran and most devices shut down. The daily output has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, with low - price rigid - demand transactions and overall light trading. The spot basis is stable. The US dollar price is stable, and the overall external market operating rate is at a low level. The internal - external price difference continues to shrink, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. The import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases. The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the ex - factory price is weakly falling. The MTO operating rate in the inland area is stable, and the recent inland price fluctuates weakly and stably. The Middle East is currently relatively stable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the impact on methanol futures is weakened. With the expansion of gas restrictions in Iran, future import disturbances will intensify, and methanol will continue to be mainly oscillating and strengthening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2,156 (+2/+0.09%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the production areas, prices in Inner Mongolia South Line, North Line, Guanzhong, Yulin, Shanxi, and Henan are 1,930 yuan/ton, 1,900 yuan/ton, 2,040 yuan/ton, 1,870 yuan/ton, 1,980 yuan/ton, and 2,110 yuan/ton respectively. In the consumption areas, prices in Lunan, Lubei, and Hebei are 2,180 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, and 2,120 yuan/ton respectively. In the Southwest, prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Yunnan - Guizhou are 2,060 yuan/ton and 2,040 yuan/ton respectively. At the ports, prices in Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou are 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,180 yuan/ton, and 2,090 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Important Information This week (20251212 - 1223), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region totaled 24,130 tons (24,130 tons), a decrease of 35,570 tons (35,570 tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 59.58% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 450 yuan/ton, the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price is stable. Most devices in Iran are shut down due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increases, the non - Iranian operating rate rises, the overall external market operating rate is at a low level, the European and American markets are stable, the internal - external price difference continues to shrink, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, 640,000 tons have been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies are delayed until January, the import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has declined. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device operating stably, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device operating at a low load, etc. [4]. - **Inventory**: The import arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Go long on contract 05 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [6].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7912 | -12 | -0.15% | 30,962 | -37.13% | 27,823 | -2.96% | | PK510 | | 8162 | 2 | 0.02% | 59 | -64.67% | 1,024 | -1.92% | | PK601 | | 8068 | 12 | 0.15% | 2,700 | -17.78% | 16,967 | -8.83% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 796.5 | 797.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 778.5 | 781.5 | -3.0 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 756.5 | 760.5 | -4.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -37.0 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 790 | 791 | -1 | 858 | 52 | 68 | 89 | | 纽曼粉 | 792 | 793 | -1 | 866 | 61 | 77 | 98 | | 麦克粉 | 787 | 787 | 0 | 869 | 64 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily data of stock index futures including IM, IF, IC, and IH, covering aspects such as closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, and positions of major seats. It shows the performance and changes of different contracts in these futures on December 23, 2025. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 1000 closed at 7392.42, down 0.22%. The main contract IM2603 fell 0.17% to 7197.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 144,993 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 351,928 lots, up 2,022 lots from the previous day. [4][5] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 195.02 points, up 9.73 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -11.24%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.57 points, 0.57 points, 0.57 points, and 43.71 points respectively. [5] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IM2601, IM2603, IM2606), and their changes from the previous day. [19][21][23] IF Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 300 closed at 4620.73, up 0.20%. The main contract IF2603 rose 0.1% to 4571.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 92,029 lots, down 789 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 270,424 lots, up 7,033 lots from the previous day. [24][25] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 49.33 points, down 2.51 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.48%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 4.21 points, 4.66 points, 4.66 points, and 36.05 points respectively. [25] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IF2601, IF2603, IF2606), and their changes from the previous day. [37][39][40] IC Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 500 closed at 7256.79, up 0.02%. The main contract IC2603 rose 0.04% to 7133.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 96,094 lots, down 7,094 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 255,760 lots, down 1,024 lots from the previous day. [42][43] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 123.59 points, up 8.87 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -7.19%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.62 points, 0.62 points, 0.62 points, and 66.33 points respectively. [43] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IC2601, IC2603, IC2606), and their changes from the previous day. [54][56][58] IH Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index SSE 50 closed at 3027.52, up 0.24%. The main contract IH2603 rose 0.22% to 3025.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 37,812 lots, up 817 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 82,828 lots, down 761 lots from the previous day. [61] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 1.92 points, down 0.09 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -0.26%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 5.43 points, 5.43 points, 5.43 points, and 23.97 points respectively. [62] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IH2601, IH2603, IH2606), and their changes from the previous day. [72][74][76]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a shipping research report focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][4] - It provides market analysis, strategy recommendations, and industry news for the container shipping market as of December 23, 2025 [5][8] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 23, some shipping companies' spot quotes for early January fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market sentiment and an afternoon drop in the EC index. EC2602 closed at 1806.6 points, down 3.48% from the previous day [5] - The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 1589.2 points, up 5.2% week-on-week but significantly below market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline cargo in the index [5] - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for the New Year. Demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December and little change in January and February. The PA alliance is frequently adjusting capacity between routes [6] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a peak season in January. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythms and the timing of peak prices. The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is ongoing but difficult. There is a resumption of navigation expectation that may suppress far - month contracts [6] Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit, and the remaining positions can be held lightly depending on the situation. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [8] Group 3: Industry News - In the next five weeks (December 22, 2025 - January 25, 2026), out of 704 planned voyages, 53 were cancelled, with a cancellation rate of 8%. The trans - Atlantic westbound route was the most affected, followed by the trans - Pacific eastbound and Asia - Europe/Mediterranean routes. Cancellations in December increased effective capacity by about 2%, and 35 cancellations are expected in early January 2026, releasing about 7% of capacity [8][9] - The global ship schedule punctuality rate (OTP) in November was 49%, up 1 percentage point from October. Since December, the statistical scope has been expanded [9] - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. plans to invest a total of 15.7 billion yuan in building two terminal projects at Dongjiakou Port, with a construction period of about 4 years and expected completion in 2029 [9] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Change Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1606.0 | - 25.0 | - 1.53% | 281.0 | 181.00% | 1890.0 | - 3.37% | | EC2602 | 1806.6 | - 65.2 | - 3.48% | 41660.0 | - 20.95% | 35004.0 | - 4.12% | | EC2604 | 1158.0 | - 8.8 | - 0.75% | 7754.0 | - 33.77% | 20867.0 | 1.93% | | EC2606 | 1331.7 | 11.7 | 0.89% | 372.0 | - 36.63% | 2187.0 | 0.14% | | EC2608 | 1480.0 | - 6.2 | - 0.42% | 141 | - 44.92% | 1199 | 0.17% | | EC2610 | 1052.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.85% | 796 | - 45.07% | 5603 | 3.74% | [3] Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC12 - EC02 | 40.2 | EC12 - EC04 | - 16.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | - 56.4 | EC12 - EC06 | - 36.7 | | EC02 - EC06 | - 76.9 | EC02 - EC08 | - 59 | | EC04 - EC06 | - 20.5 | EC06 - EC08 | 17.9 | [3] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1589.20 | 5.21% | - 52.76% | | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 962.10 | 4.08% | - 47.17% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1552.92 | 3.08% | - 34.87% | | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3238 | 1.77% | - 28.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 1992 | 11.91% | - 50.48% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 2846 | 7.32% | - 48.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1533 | - 0.33% | - 48.26% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 2833 | 3.51% | - 24.37% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2212 | - 4.57% | - 38.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 2.63% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 4.56% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 2015 | 7.12% | 33.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 542 | - 2.52% | - 25.24% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1263 | 1.77% | - 34.29% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | - 0.72% | 0.00% | [3] Fuel Costs | | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 57.76 | 2.45% | - 16.46% | | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 61.54 | 2.36% | - 15.3% | [3]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5648 | 4 | 166 | 241006 | -61992 | 250343 | 129 | | SM主力合约 | 5822 | -18 | 86 | 159916 | -56278 | 280367 | -1468 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 20 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5570 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a strong and volatile state. Although the USDA's December report shows an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, the production remains at a high level. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2158 yuan. The domestic corn market is affected by factors such as seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building. The short - term spot market is relatively strong, but there are still downward risks [4][6]. - The starch market is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, and the corporate profit has declined. The short - term starch spot price is stable, and the 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts on December 23, 2025, showed small fluctuations. For example, C2601 closed at 2210, down 10 or 0.45%; CS2601 closed at 2485, down 12 or 0.48%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different extents [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are stable in some areas, with the price in Qinggang at 2080 yuan, and the basis in different regions ranges from - 176 to 174 yuan. Starch spot prices are also relatively stable, with some prices unchanged and the basis ranging from 166 to 346 yuan. The price of some starch products in Shandong decreased by 30 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods and between varieties also changed. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 15, down 8; CS01 - CS05 spread was - 49, down 14 [2]. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is strong and volatile. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some downstream feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 107.4 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profit has declined. The 03 starch contract followed the corn price down, and the North China corn price may decline in December [7]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Consider going long on the 07 corn contract at a low price [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [10]. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 01 contract, to visually show the price trends and relationships [15][17][20].

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3130 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - Steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Although there is support from manufacturing demand and raw material replenishment expectations, the seasonal decline in building material demand and potential production resumption at the end of the month will suppress the upward space of steel prices [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest shorting the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Important Information - Li Qiang stated that central enterprises should carry out new infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule and play a leading role in achieving self - controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain [9] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, win the battle of ensuring the delivery of buildings, continue to implement the policy "combination punch", and other measures [9][10] Group 3: Related Appendices - The appendices include various charts such as those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14]