1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows volatility, but the policy environment is generally positive, and the economy is expected to recover. Although there are short - term fluctuations in the stock index futures market, it still has an upward trend in the medium - to - long term. In the bond market, due to the official PMI falling short of expectations, there may be short - term opportunities for long positions, but the overall odds of long positions are limited before the policy interest rate is cut. In the agricultural product market, the supply and demand of various varieties are different, and the prices are affected by factors such as international prices and domestic production and sales. In the black metal market, the steel price follows the market sentiment and fluctuates, and the prices of double - coking and iron ore are also affected by multiple factors such as fundamentals, funds, and policies. In the non - ferrous metal market, the nomination of Wash as the new Fed chairman has a significant impact on precious metals and copper, and other metals are also affected by factors such as supply and demand and market sentiment. In the shipping market, the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the freight rate of container shipping. In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical premiums, supply and demand, and seasonal factors [22][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Although there were significant fluctuations on January 30, 2026, in the context of a positive policy environment and economic recovery expectations, the short - term fluctuations are expected to be followed by an upward trend. The trading strategies include unilateral long - term upward trends, IM\IC 2609 long - position and ETF short - position arbitrage, and bullish spread options [19][22][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The previous week's bond futures tended to fluctuate, and the official PMI in January fell significantly short of expectations. In the short term, investors may consider a long - position strategy, but the overall odds of long positions in the bond market are limited before the policy interest rate is cut [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The overall supply is loose, and the US soybean price center is likely to move down. Although there are some supporting factors, the medium - to - long - term disk pressure still exists. The trading strategy is mainly to sell at high points, expand the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices have fallen sharply, and the domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing season with increased supply. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will be weak in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to whether the key points of international sugar prices can be effectively broken through, with the 5 - month contract price expected to decline, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options [29][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil may have production cuts and inventory reductions in January, but the inventory remains at a relatively high level. The US biodiesel has positive prospects, which is beneficial for soybean oil consumption, but there are also supply pressures. Rapeseed oil has a certain price support. The trading strategy is to consider short - selling at high points or long - buying after a callback, and consider reverse arbitrage for y59 [32][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures have declined, and the domestic North Port spot price has fallen. The corn price is expected to be under pressure in the later period. The strategy is to be bullish on the 03 - month US corn after it stabilizes, short - sell the 03 - month corn at high points, and expand the spread between the 05 - month corn and starch [34][35][36]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally increased. However, the overall inventory is still relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see for unilateral trading and sell wide - straddle options [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to short - sell the 03 - month peanuts at high points lightly and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [40][41]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for eggs has increased, and the price has risen. Considering the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to short - sell the 6 - month contract [43][47]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. It is expected that the price of the 5 - month contract will be easy to rise and difficult to fall. The strategy is to go long on the 5 - month contract at low points, short - sell the 10 - month contract at high points, and conduct more 5 - month and less 10 - month arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the cotton price is supported. It is recommended to go long on the contract at low points [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price follows the market sentiment and fluctuates. It is expected to follow the macro - sentiment and maintain an oscillatory trend before the festival [56]. - **Double - Coking**: In February, the coal mines will gradually start to have holidays, and the spot price tends to be stable. The disk price is mainly affected by funds and emotions. It is advisable to maintain a long - position strategy at low points [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuated last week. The market is mainly dominated by macro and funds, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high. The supply is loose, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The price is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Due to the sharp adjustment of leading commodities such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the previous long positions can be partially closed for profit [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The nomination of Wash as the new Fed chairman has triggered a risk release in the gold and silver markets. It is mainly a release of previously accumulated risks, and the medium - to - long - term macro - logic has not changed fundamentally. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being [67][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: After a huge decline, there is a fierce battle between long and short positions. It is necessary to be cautious when participating. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium in terms of fundamentals [70][71]. - **Copper**: The nomination of Wash has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. After the price stabilizes, a long - position strategy can be considered, and attention should be paid to the position control during the Spring Festival [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction pressure, and the cost has declined. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [75][76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: After the nomination of the next Fed chairman, the dollar rebounded, and the aluminum price fell. Although the long - term supply and demand are in short supply, short - term liquidity risks need to be vigilant [78][79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman and the approaching Spring Festival, the market liquidity has tightened, and the price has fallen. It is advisable to wait and see [80]. - **Zinc**: The price is affected by market sentiment and funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and try to buy both call and put out - of - the - money options [82][83]. - **Lead**: The price maintains an oscillatory range, with a supply - demand balance of both weakness. It is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment [84][86]. - **Nickel**: After the speculative sentiment cools down, the price returns to the fundamentals. It is expected that there will be opportunities for long - positions after a callback and stabilization during the Spring Festival [92][93]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by the decline in non - ferrous metals and nickel prices, the price has fallen. However, there is cost support, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the price stabilizes [95][97]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Large - scale production cuts have been implemented, and the short - term price may be strong [98]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [100][101]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative heat has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level after a callback [103][105]. - **Tin**: The funds are leaving the market, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the consumption realization rhythm [108]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The geopolitical conflict remains unresolved, and the spot freight rate has declined. The demand is gradually reaching the peak and then falling, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct positive arbitrage for the 6 - 10 contracts [113][114][116]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has partially retreated. The international oil price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to hold long positions without chasing high prices [118][119]. - **Asphalt**: The near - end cost fluctuates with geopolitical factors. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the unilateral position risk [120][122][123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur spot price remains at a high level year - on - year, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks, and the FU59 positive arbitrage can be held [124][128][129]. - **LPG**: The price follows the trend of crude oil. The supply in the domestic market is increasing, and the demand is falling. It is advisable to hold long positions without chasing high prices [130][131][132]. - **Natural Gas**: As the cold wave fades, the upward momentum of the price weakens. It is advisable to hold short - positions in the third - quarter contracts of TTF and JKM and short - sell the second - quarter contract of HH [133][135][136]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester demand is seasonally weak, and the terminal load is partially reduced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [136][139]. - **BZ & EB**: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and there is a phased inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and positive arbitrage can be considered [141][143]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is still obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber factories are reducing production as planned, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate at a high level [147][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: The processing margin has strengthened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [150][153]. - **Propylene**: The supply is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [154][155]. - **Plastic PP**: The L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract should pay attention to the support levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [156][157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [159][160][161]. - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. However, there is cost support, and a long - position strategy can be considered at low points [162][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased, but the downstream demand is rigid. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound [165][166][167]. - **Glass**: The market pre - inflation is interrupted, and the price is expected to decline as the Spring Festival approaches [168][169][170]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical premium has returned, and the international device start - up rate has declined. It is advisable to go long at low points and pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage [172]. - **Urea**: The supply has reached a new high, the downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be unstable. Futures trading should be cautious [174][175]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range. It is advisable to short - sell at high points [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the price increase. It is advisable to short - sell a small amount of positions against the previous high [181][182]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable and strong. It is advisable to hold long positions and pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunity [183][184][185]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of the macro - sentiment decline. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 and NR 04 contracts and pay attention to the pressure levels [186][188]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of the macro - sentiment decline. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract and pay attention to the pressure level [190][191].

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面冲高回落，最终报收 2320（-15/-0.64%）。 【交易策略】 1、单边：低多（关注中东局势） 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1810 元/吨，北线报价 1770 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1850 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1780 元/吨，山西地区报价 1930 元/吨，河南地区报价 2010 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2130 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2000 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2040 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2280 元/吨，宁波报价 2290 元/吨，广州报价 2280 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260124-20260130）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 760819 吨，较上周大幅减 少 12.65 吨，装置产能利用率为 52.15%，较上周大幅下降 8.67%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320-350 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续 宽松。美金价格稳定 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] IM Futures Market Overview - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,254.86 points, down 0.93%. The main contract of IM fell 0.84% to close at 8,260.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 275,842 lots, an increase of 27,861 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 408,840 lots, a decrease of 2,755 lots from the previous day [4]. - The main contract of IM had a premium of 5.74 points, up 8.95 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 0.51%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.29 points, 0.29 points, 0.29 points, and 68.05 points respectively [5]. Position Analysis - The trading volume, open interest, and changes of major seats in IM2602, IM2603, IM2606, and IM2609 contracts were detailed, including information on top 5, top 10, and top 20 seats [15][17][19] IF Futures Market Overview - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,706.34 points, down 1.00%. The main contract of IF fell 1.32% to close at 4,711 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 179,201 lots, an increase of 19,397 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 332,644 lots, an increase of 9,087 lots from the previous day [20][21]. - The main contract of IF had a premium of 4.66 points, down 25.47 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 0.72%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 3.69 points, 3.72 points, 3.72 points, and 89.63 points respectively [21]. Position Analysis - The trading volume, open interest, and changes of major seats in IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 contracts were detailed, including information on top 5, top 10, and top 20 seats [34][36][38] IC Futures Market Overview - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,370.52 points, down 1.73%. The main contract of IC fell 2.07% to close at 8,362.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 248,185 lots, an increase of 43,907 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 349,459 lots, a decrease of 4,373 lots from the previous day [40][41]. - The main contract of IC had a discount of 8.12 points, down 7.88 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.71%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.44 points, 0.44 points, 0.44 points, and 98.36 points respectively [41]. Position Analysis - The trading volume, open interest, and changes of major seats in IC2602, IC2603, IC2606, and IC2609 contracts were detailed, including information on top 5, top 10, and top 20 seats [53][55][57] IH Futures Market Overview - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,066.50 points, down 1.43%. The main contract of IH fell 1.64% to close at 3,074 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 77,049 lots, a decrease of 8,823 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 122,366 lots, a decrease of 5,863 lots from the previous day [59]. - The main contract of IH had a premium of 7.5 points, down 11.99 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 1.78%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 4.95 points, 4.95 points, 4.95 points, and 71.63 points respectively [60]. Position Analysis - The trading volume, open interest, and changes of major seats in IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts were detailed, including information on top 5, top 10, and top 20 seats [73][76][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It provides trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, in the PX & PTA market, the supply - demand relationship is complex, and trading strategies such as wide - range shocks and PX & PTA 3, 5 - contract positive spreads are proposed [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX & PTA**: An 820,000 - ton PX device in the Middle East will be shut down for 40 - 50 days in January. Zhejiang Petrochemical will have CDU and reforming maintenance in January, with PX expected to reduce its load by about 10%. PTA has multiple device changes. The trading strategies are wide - range shocks for single - side trading, PX & PTA 3, 5 - contract positive spreads for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. - **MEG**: Some MEG devices are reducing their loads or planning maintenance. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream polyester will reduce production in the second half of the month. The trading strategies are weak shocks for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options [8]. - **PF**: Some short - fiber devices plan to be shut down for maintenance, and the load is expected to decrease. The trading strategies are wide - range shocks for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. - **PR**: Some bottle - chip devices plan to be shut down for maintenance, and the start - up rate is expected to decrease. The trading strategies are wide - range shocks for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of long - filaments are weak, the production and sales of short - fibers are differentiated, and the market transaction atmosphere of polyester bottle chips is acceptable. The polyester start - up load has declined to 88.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5% [15]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is weak. The comprehensive start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machines has decreased by 2% to 70%, the comprehensive start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased by 1% to 55%, and the comprehensive start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing has increased by 1% to 70% [18]. - **Long - Filament Situation**: The production and sales of polyester filaments are weak, the start - up rate has increased, the inventory has remained stable, and the efficiency is poor. The start - up rate of long - filament factories has decreased by 1.4% to around 88.8%, and the average inventory days of polyester long - filaments are 16.3 days, remaining the same week - on - week [21]. - **Bottle - Chip Situation**: The load of bottle chips has increased by 0.8% to 74.8%. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is about 13 days on average [24]. - **Short - Fiber Situation**: The production and sales of short - fibers are differentiated, the demand is weak, the downstream orders are few, the inventory has increased by 0.2 days to 9.6 days, and the processing fee is under pressure [32]. 3.2.2 PX - PX has good benefits and a high start - up rate. The downstream polyester demand has weakened. The floating - price and paper - cargo prices have certain trends [33]. 3.2.3 PTA - As of Thursday, the PTA load has decreased by 1.9% to 76.3%. Multiple PTA devices have changes in their operation status, and the price upward - driving force has weakened [36]. 3.2.4 MEG - On Friday, MEG prices corrected. The spot was traded at a discount of about 132 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The supply is expected to increase, with some devices restarting [39][42]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price and Spread**: It provides data on Brent crude oil futures, PX China CFR, PXN, and PX - MX, showing their historical trends [52]. - **Disproportionation and Oil - Adjustment Spread & Profit**: It shows data on US gasoline inventory, US crude oil inventory, xylene oil - adjustment and PX production spread, toluene oil - adjustment spread, and disproportionation profit [55][56]. - **Supply and Demand**: It presents the load data of Chinese and Asian PX and Chinese PTA [62][63]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price and Profit**: It shows the historical trends of PTA spot price, profit, 05 - contract basis, and 5 - 9 month spread [66][67][69]. - **Supply and Demand**: It provides data on PTA load index, polyester load, PTA inventory, and polyester factory inventory [72][74]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the price data of East China ethylene glycol market, Ordos 5500K coal price, East China methanol ex - tank price, and Northeast Asia ethylene price, as well as the 05 - contract basis and 5 - 9 month spread [77][79]. - **Profit**: It presents the profit data of ethylene glycol oil - based production, MTO, ethylene monomer production, and coal - based production [83]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It shows the profit data of POY, DTY, FDY, bottle chips, and short - fibers [88]. - **Supply**: It provides data on polyester load, bottle - chip load, long - filament load, short - fiber load, long - filament average inventory days, short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing machines [91][93][95].

能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、 期货市场：尿素期货大幅下挫，最终报收 1790（-24/-1.32%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价坚挺，收单转弱，河南出厂报 1710-1720 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1740-1760 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1750-1760 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1650-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1740-1750 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1590-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 30 日，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增 加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价窄幅波动，市场情绪平稳，成交尚可，厂家收单跟进。山东地区主 流出厂报价坚挺，市场情绪表现亢奋，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库存充裕，成品库 存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单成交转 弱，省内尿素厂收单零星，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主；河南地区市场情绪尚 可，出厂报价明稳暗降，贸易 ...

| S | | --- | | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 行情复盘 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 第三部分 宏观面因素 5 | | | 一、美元指数弱势表现或有转向 5 | | | 第四部分 基本面情况 6 | | | 一、铂、钯基本面 | 6 | | （一）铂钯供需平衡 | 6 | | （二）铂金、钯金原生供应弹性有限，回收供应将有趋势增长 8 | | | （四）铂金、钯金需求 | 12 | | 免责声明 | 15 | 有色板块研发报告 铂钯月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 情绪遇冷后行情盘整 基本面强弱格局依旧 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，铂钯价格主要受宏观情绪、地缘风险与产业预期三重 因素驱动，逻辑主线清晰。美国宏观数据的坚韧没能带动美元的走强， 地缘危机和特朗普政府的言论导致贵金属板块集体获得强劲的避险与 "去美元化"买盘推动。基本面而言，铂金处于结构性短缺格局，表现 坚挺；钯金则因需求疲软面临过剩压力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of polysilicon futures in February is expected to be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton. The main reasons are the high inventory of polysilicon, the pressure on terminal demand caused by the increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals, and the cancellation of joint production cuts, sales restrictions, and price increases under the anti - involution policy [5][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The significant increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals has pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 87,400 tons. The output of polysilicon in February is expected to be about 82,000 tons, and although there is a slight inventory reduction, the high inventory of over 330,000 tons still exerts pressure on the spot price [4][40]. - **Trading Logic**: After the座谈会 on January 28, the anti - involution policy will focus more on the market and legal aspects. The optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers may be to refer to their full costs. The annual operating rate of enterprises is expected to be around 30% - 50%, with a corresponding industry cost range of (42,000, 50,000) yuan/ton. The spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage, recommend positive arbitrage; for options, no recommendation is provided [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: In January, the polysilicon futures price dropped significantly after being affected by the anti - monopoly risk reminder and the anti - involution policy, and then stabilized with a weakening trend at the end of the month. The main contract once fell to around 48,000 yuan/ton and then to the 49,000 yuan/ton level [9]. - **Demand**: The increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals has significantly pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of batteries and components in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, may lead to a rush to export in the first quarter, but the sharp increase in costs has eroded the preferential price space [14][18]. - **Supply**: The production schedule of polysilicon in February is expected to be reduced. The total domestic output in February is estimated to be 81,600 tons, with only Tongwei Co., Ltd. having a reduced output compared to January [34]. - **Inventory**: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged. In January, the inventory increased on paper, and as of January 23, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reached 330,000 - 340,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises decreased to about 150,000 tons. The inventory of the delivery warehouse increased to 24,200 tons. The possible restocking by downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival and the increased willingness to sell by upstream enterprises due to inventory pressure will be negative for the spot price [36]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Fundamental Outlook**: The cost of batteries and components has increased significantly, the production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable, the output of polysilicon in February is about 82,000 tons, and the high - inventory pressure still exists, putting pressure on the spot price [40]. - **Trading Logic Analysis**: The anti - involution policy focuses on the market and legal aspects, the optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers is to refer to full costs, the annual operating rate of enterprises is around 30% - 50%, the spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage and options, no recommendations are provided [41].

极目宏观 系列研究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 经济差异的资产表现 — 2026 年 01 月宏观经济与资产月报 宏观策略研发报告 【内容摘要】 美国经济正逐步走出 10 月政府关门的影响，经济数据表现出韧性。这预示 美国经济基本面处于现实需求驱动的状态中。就业稳健和收入上行保证了美国经 济在逐渐摆脱美国政府关门影响后，将呈现逐步上行的状态。短期的不确定是美 元流动性仍处于较为紧张的状态， 在美国现实消费支撑经济，货币政策、政治事件等不确定性频繁的情况下， 美元资产走势也体现出整体向好，波动巨大的特征。美债震荡、信用利差收窄； 美股再试前高，纳指和道指轮涨；实际需求驱动有色等大宗商品价格；美元国际 货币地位弱化导致美元指数下滑。 2025 年国内经济经济增速下行的背后是投资和消费支撑力度的下降以及进 出口支撑力度的延续，经济短期体现出一定的季节性因素。从 2025 年中国经济 表现展望未来，经济增速改善已在体现，但幅度和节奏仍具有一定的短期特征， 短期，倾向于关注政策预期和消费变化，中长期关注广义财政力效果、新质生产 力发展和经济内生动力恢复情况。 对国内经济短期的关注点使得政策引导人民币持续升值预期下， ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 4 | | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 总览与说明 5 | | 第三部分 | 宏观供应 6 | | | 一、 全球数据 6 | | ➢ | 气候 6 | | ➢ | 商品估值 11 | | 第四部分 | 微观供应 14 | | | 二、 全球数据 14 | | ➢ | 绝对价格 14 | | | 三、 海外数据 15 | | ➢ | ANRPC 胶盟天然橡胶产业 15 | | ➢ | 泰国天然橡胶产业 17 | | ➢ | 越南天然橡胶产业 27 | | | 四、 国内数据 29 | | ➢ | 中国橡胶进口及产量 29 | | ➢ | 天然橡胶的供应 34 | | ➢ | 中国橡胶表观消费量 35 | | ➢ | 国内胶水产品 36 | | ➢ | 丁二烯及顺丁橡胶的供应 38 | | ➢ | 台湾橡塑业 43 | | 第五部分 | 贸易流通 45 | | | 五、 全球数据 45 | | ➢ | 东南亚六大主产国平衡表 45 | | | 六、 海外数据 46 | | ➢ | 国际贸易 46 | | ➢ | 日本橡胶库存 47 | | ➢ | 马来西亚天然橡胶零售库 ...

| 2026 年 11 | | --- | | 1 | | I | | 30 F | | 2 | | --- | | 市场波动加剧，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | | 地缘政治风险增加，美元信用下降 5 | | 第三部分 | 供应端 | 6 | | 第四部分 | 消费面分析 | 13 | | 一、 | | 传统消费增速明显下滑 13 | | 二、 | | 汽车消费韧性凸显 17 | | 三、 | | 风光发电超预期增长 20 | | 四、 | 新兴消费崛起 | 22 | | 五、 | 消费总结 | 24 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 有色金属研发报告 1 月铜价剧烈波动，重心上移，前期铜价围绕 99000-105000 元/吨震 荡，cl 价差下行，一 ...