Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international device operating rate continues to decline, with gas restrictions expanding in Iran and most devices shut down. The daily output has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, with low - price rigid - demand transactions and overall light trading. The spot basis is stable. The US dollar price is stable, and the overall external market operating rate is at a low level. The internal - external price difference continues to shrink, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. The import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases. The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the ex - factory price is weakly falling. The MTO operating rate in the inland area is stable, and the recent inland price fluctuates weakly and stably. The Middle East is currently relatively stable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the impact on methanol futures is weakened. With the expansion of gas restrictions in Iran, future import disturbances will intensify, and methanol will continue to be mainly oscillating and strengthening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2,156 (+2/+0.09%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the production areas, prices in Inner Mongolia South Line, North Line, Guanzhong, Yulin, Shanxi, and Henan are 1,930 yuan/ton, 1,900 yuan/ton, 2,040 yuan/ton, 1,870 yuan/ton, 1,980 yuan/ton, and 2,110 yuan/ton respectively. In the consumption areas, prices in Lunan, Lubei, and Hebei are 2,180 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, and 2,120 yuan/ton respectively. In the Southwest, prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Yunnan - Guizhou are 2,060 yuan/ton and 2,040 yuan/ton respectively. At the ports, prices in Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou are 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,180 yuan/ton, and 2,090 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Important Information This week (20251212 - 1223), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region totaled 24,130 tons (24,130 tons), a decrease of 35,570 tons (35,570 tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 59.58% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 450 yuan/ton, the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price is stable. Most devices in Iran are shut down due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increases, the non - Iranian operating rate rises, the overall external market operating rate is at a low level, the European and American markets are stable, the internal - external price difference continues to shrink, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, 640,000 tons have been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies are delayed until January, the import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has declined. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device operating stably, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device operating at a low load, etc. [4]. - **Inventory**: The import arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Go long on contract 05 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [6].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7912 | -12 | -0.15% | 30,962 | -37.13% | 27,823 | -2.96% | | PK510 | | 8162 | 2 | 0.02% | 59 | -64.67% | 1,024 | -1.92% | | PK601 | | 8068 | 12 | 0.15% | 2,700 | -17.78% | 16,967 | -8.83% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 796.5 | 797.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 778.5 | 781.5 | -3.0 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 756.5 | 760.5 | -4.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -37.0 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 790 | 791 | -1 | 858 | 52 | 68 | 89 | | 纽曼粉 | 792 | 793 | -1 | 866 | 61 | 77 | 98 | | 麦克粉 | 787 | 787 | 0 | 869 | 64 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily data of stock index futures including IM, IF, IC, and IH, covering aspects such as closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, and positions of major seats. It shows the performance and changes of different contracts in these futures on December 23, 2025. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 1000 closed at 7392.42, down 0.22%. The main contract IM2603 fell 0.17% to 7197.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 144,993 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 351,928 lots, up 2,022 lots from the previous day. [4][5] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 195.02 points, up 9.73 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -11.24%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.57 points, 0.57 points, 0.57 points, and 43.71 points respectively. [5] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IM2601, IM2603, IM2606), and their changes from the previous day. [19][21][23] IF Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 300 closed at 4620.73, up 0.20%. The main contract IF2603 rose 0.1% to 4571.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 92,029 lots, down 789 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 270,424 lots, up 7,033 lots from the previous day. [24][25] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 49.33 points, down 2.51 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.48%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 4.21 points, 4.66 points, 4.66 points, and 36.05 points respectively. [25] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IF2601, IF2603, IF2606), and their changes from the previous day. [37][39][40] IC Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index CSI 500 closed at 7256.79, up 0.02%. The main contract IC2603 rose 0.04% to 7133.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 96,094 lots, down 7,094 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 255,760 lots, down 1,024 lots from the previous day. [42][43] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 123.59 points, up 8.87 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -7.19%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.62 points, 0.62 points, 0.62 points, and 66.33 points respectively. [43] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IC2601, IC2603, IC2606), and their changes from the previous day. [54][56][58] IH Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The underlying index SSE 50 closed at 3027.52, up 0.24%. The main contract IH2603 rose 0.22% to 3025.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 37,812 lots, up 817 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 82,828 lots, down 761 lots from the previous day. [61] - **Basis and Other Data**: The main contract was at a discount of 1.92 points, down 0.09 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -0.26%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 5.43 points, 5.43 points, 5.43 points, and 23.97 points respectively. [62] - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report details the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in different contracts (IH2601, IH2603, IH2606), and their changes from the previous day. [72][74][76]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a shipping research report focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][4] - It provides market analysis, strategy recommendations, and industry news for the container shipping market as of December 23, 2025 [5][8] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 23, some shipping companies' spot quotes for early January fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market sentiment and an afternoon drop in the EC index. EC2602 closed at 1806.6 points, down 3.48% from the previous day [5] - The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 1589.2 points, up 5.2% week-on-week but significantly below market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline cargo in the index [5] - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for the New Year. Demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December and little change in January and February. The PA alliance is frequently adjusting capacity between routes [6] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a peak season in January. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythms and the timing of peak prices. The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is ongoing but difficult. There is a resumption of navigation expectation that may suppress far - month contracts [6] Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit, and the remaining positions can be held lightly depending on the situation. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [8] Group 3: Industry News - In the next five weeks (December 22, 2025 - January 25, 2026), out of 704 planned voyages, 53 were cancelled, with a cancellation rate of 8%. The trans - Atlantic westbound route was the most affected, followed by the trans - Pacific eastbound and Asia - Europe/Mediterranean routes. Cancellations in December increased effective capacity by about 2%, and 35 cancellations are expected in early January 2026, releasing about 7% of capacity [8][9] - The global ship schedule punctuality rate (OTP) in November was 49%, up 1 percentage point from October. Since December, the statistical scope has been expanded [9] - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. plans to invest a total of 15.7 billion yuan in building two terminal projects at Dongjiakou Port, with a construction period of about 4 years and expected completion in 2029 [9] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Change Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1606.0 | - 25.0 | - 1.53% | 281.0 | 181.00% | 1890.0 | - 3.37% | | EC2602 | 1806.6 | - 65.2 | - 3.48% | 41660.0 | - 20.95% | 35004.0 | - 4.12% | | EC2604 | 1158.0 | - 8.8 | - 0.75% | 7754.0 | - 33.77% | 20867.0 | 1.93% | | EC2606 | 1331.7 | 11.7 | 0.89% | 372.0 | - 36.63% | 2187.0 | 0.14% | | EC2608 | 1480.0 | - 6.2 | - 0.42% | 141 | - 44.92% | 1199 | 0.17% | | EC2610 | 1052.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.85% | 796 | - 45.07% | 5603 | 3.74% | [3] Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC12 - EC02 | 40.2 | EC12 - EC04 | - 16.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | - 56.4 | EC12 - EC06 | - 36.7 | | EC02 - EC06 | - 76.9 | EC02 - EC08 | - 59 | | EC04 - EC06 | - 20.5 | EC06 - EC08 | 17.9 | [3] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1589.20 | 5.21% | - 52.76% | | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 962.10 | 4.08% | - 47.17% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1552.92 | 3.08% | - 34.87% | | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3238 | 1.77% | - 28.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 1992 | 11.91% | - 50.48% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 2846 | 7.32% | - 48.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1533 | - 0.33% | - 48.26% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 2833 | 3.51% | - 24.37% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2212 | - 4.57% | - 38.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 2.63% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 4.56% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 2015 | 7.12% | 33.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 542 | - 2.52% | - 25.24% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1263 | 1.77% | - 34.29% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | - 0.72% | 0.00% | [3] Fuel Costs | | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 57.76 | 2.45% | - 16.46% | | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 61.54 | 2.36% | - 15.3% | [3]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5648 | 4 | 166 | 241006 | -61992 | 250343 | 129 | | SM主力合约 | 5822 | -18 | 86 | 159916 | -56278 | 280367 | -1468 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 20 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5570 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a strong and volatile state. Although the USDA's December report shows an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, the production remains at a high level. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2158 yuan. The domestic corn market is affected by factors such as seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building. The short - term spot market is relatively strong, but there are still downward risks [4][6]. - The starch market is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, and the corporate profit has declined. The short - term starch spot price is stable, and the 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts on December 23, 2025, showed small fluctuations. For example, C2601 closed at 2210, down 10 or 0.45%; CS2601 closed at 2485, down 12 or 0.48%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different extents [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are stable in some areas, with the price in Qinggang at 2080 yuan, and the basis in different regions ranges from - 176 to 174 yuan. Starch spot prices are also relatively stable, with some prices unchanged and the basis ranging from 166 to 346 yuan. The price of some starch products in Shandong decreased by 30 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods and between varieties also changed. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 15, down 8; CS01 - CS05 spread was - 49, down 14 [2]. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is strong and volatile. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some downstream feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 107.4 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profit has declined. The 03 starch contract followed the corn price down, and the North China corn price may decline in December [7]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Consider going long on the 07 corn contract at a low price [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [10]. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 01 contract, to visually show the price trends and relationships [15][17][20].

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3130 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - Steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Although there is support from manufacturing demand and raw material replenishment expectations, the seasonal decline in building material demand and potential production resumption at the end of the month will suppress the upward space of steel prices [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest shorting the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Important Information - Li Qiang stated that central enterprises should carry out new infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule and play a leading role in achieving self - controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain [9] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, win the battle of ensuring the delivery of buildings, continue to implement the policy "combination punch", and other measures [9][10] Group 3: Related Appendices - The appendices include various charts such as those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 油脂日报 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：宏观情绪较好，棕榈油技术性反弹，今日棕榈油期价震荡小幅 收涨。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日（第 51 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 70 万吨，环比 上周增加 4.73 万吨，增幅 7.25%，近期棕榈油处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行， 进口利润倒挂有所扩大，目前约在-300 附近。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情况。 短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱动，但经历了大幅下跌后目前出现技术性反弹，可考虑逢低试多博 反弹，但反弹高度或有限，方向上维持反弹至区间上沿后逢高空的思路。 今日豆油期价震荡收平。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 213.06 万吨，开机率为 58.61%，较 1 / 5 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market trends, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Anticipated to rise in a volatile manner. The market showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with major indices rising. The contract prices also increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased in some varieties. It's recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a double - buying options strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment was under pressure. Futures prices fell across the board on Monday, and the spot yield was divided. It's advisable to buy the TL contract on dips, with caution on chasing highs and timely profit - taking, and to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market is in a stage of stability with a large decline in the price. The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has price support but limited sustainability. It's recommended to take a bearish view, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short - straddle options strategy [25][26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, while domestic sugar prices are in adjustment after a significant decline. International supply pressure is easing, and the domestic market has supply and cost factors at play. It's suggested to expect bottom - range fluctuations for international sugar and a shock - adjustment trend for domestic sugar, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [28][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is a technical rebound. Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing slightly, and there is limited upward momentum due to factors such as slow de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil. It's recommended to consider buying palm oil on dips for a rebound, with a view of shorting after the rebound, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [32][33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in bottom - range oscillations. U.S. corn shows a strong trend, and domestic corn has different trends in different regions. It's advisable to buy on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35][36]. - **Live Pigs**: The market has a large supply, and spot prices are in a stage of stability. The overall supply pressure remains, and it's recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is in a weak - range oscillation. The supply of oil peanuts is abundant, and it's suggested to short the 03 contract on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and prices are falling. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and it's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for near - term contracts and consider going long on the far - term May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and prices are stable. The apple yield has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is likely to be low. It's advisable to expect limited downward space, conduct a long - 1 and short - 10 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton sales are good, and prices are rising in a volatile manner. The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as potential reduction in planting area and expansion of textile capacity. It's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for U.S. cotton and a rising trend for Chinese cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [49][50][51]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range as the restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled. The black sector was in a volatile and strong trend at night, with changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to expect a volatile and strong trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio and hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [54][55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a bottom - rebound, and attention should be paid to the change in trading logic. The coking coal auction situation has improved, but Mongolian coal brings pressure. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or buy on dips with light positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate as market expectations are fluctuating. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and domestic demand is weak. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: There is a short - term rebound due to cost support and anti - cut - throat competition expectations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is decreasing, and there is cost support. It's recommended to expect a short - term rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a short - straddle options combination [62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical tensions and interest - rate cut expectations drive the price up. Gold reached a new high, and silver also hit a record high. It's recommended to hold long positions for Shanghai gold based on the previous high and hold long positions for Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [64][65][67]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm is high, and attention should be paid to position management. The market shows a strong trend, and it's advisable to go long on dips based on the MA5, conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [68][69][70]. - **Copper**: It's recommended to buy after a full correction. The price is affected by factors such as long - term contract processing fees, inventory, and market sentiment. It's advisable to expect a short - term strong oscillation and a long - term upward trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options [71][72][73]. - **Alumina**: The price is in a weak - range oscillation. Spot prices are falling, and there are factors such as bauxite supply and inventory. It's advisable to expect a weak - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [74][75][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price is oscillating at a high level with strong fundamental support. The global shortage situation persists, and domestic demand has resilience. It's recommended to expect a medium - term upward trend after a correction, conduct an arbitrage when the import loss widens, and stay on the sidelines for options [79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is oscillating at a high level as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The cost provides support, but demand is weakening. It's advisable to expect a high - level oscillation, conduct an arbitrage when the price corrects, and stay on the sidelines for options [80][81]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely as there are both bullish and bearish factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82][83][84]. - **Lead**: The price is oscillating within a range as supply and demand are both weak. The price is affected by factors such as environmental protection and inventory. It's advisable to expect a range - bound oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Nickel**: The price is rising due to Indonesia's policy expectations. The market is affected by import data and policy expectations. It's advisable to expect an upward test of resistance, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a bull - spread options strategy [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is following nickel and showing a strong trend. The price is supported by factors such as inventory and resource tightness. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [90][92]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It's recommended to sell on rallies. The supply is in a state of inventory accumulation, and demand is weak. It's advisable to sell on rallies, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93]. - **Polysilicon**: It's in a long - term upward trend, but short - term risk management is necessary. There are positive factors in the long - term, but short - term demand is weak. It's advisable to be cautious in the short - term, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [94][95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is highly volatile at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The import data and market sentiment affect the price. It's advisable to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [96][97][98]. - **Tin**: The price may be adjusted at a high level as the raw material supply remains tight. The import of tin concentrate has recovered, but downstream consumption is weak. It's advisable to expect a high - level adjustment, stay on the sidelines for options [99][100]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The SCFIS index fails to meet expectations, and the 12 - contract is expected to correct downward. The spot freight rate has improved, but the index is affected by low - price goods. It's recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and pay attention to the freight volume improvement, and expect the far - term contract to be under pressure, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [101][102][104]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is recovering due to geopolitical tensions. The settlement price of crude oil futures has increased. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, conduct an arbitrage on gasoline, diesel, and crude oil spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [106][107]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material has risks, and the spot price is under pressure. The price is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [108][109][110]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are in a weak - oscillating state. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, conduct an arbitrage on the cracking spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [111][113][114]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH is waiting for guidance. The price is affected by weather and demand. It's advisable to buy the HH2602 contract for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [115][116][117]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. The market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [118][119]. - **PX & PTA**: The cost center has risen, and polyester sales have declined. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [120][121][122]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply is abundant, and styrene export boosts market sentiment. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, short pure benzene and long styrene, and stay on the sidelines for options [123][124][126]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is great pressure on inventory reduction. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a short - term oscillation and a medium - term weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [128][129]. - **Short - Fiber**: It rebounds following the cost, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [130][132]. - **Bottle Chip**: It rebounds following the cost, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [133][134]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are weak, and downstream profit improvement is poor with no obvious increase in开工. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [135][136]. - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of primary plastic production has slightly narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to hold short positions in the L - 2605 contract and set a stop - loss, and try long positions in the PP - 2605 contract with a stop - loss, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [137][138]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140][142]. - **PVC**: The price is continuing to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [143][144]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is continuing to decline. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - term contract [146][147]. - **Glass**: The futures price is in a weak trend. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating within a range. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating and strong trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [150][152]. - **Urea**: Downstream resists high prices. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to go long on the 05 contract, conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [153][154]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating widely at a high level with weak reality and strong expectation. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or short on a small scale for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [155][156][158]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [161][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory has reached a new high, and cost support is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [165][166]. - **Natural Rubber**: The growth rate of tire exports has narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the RU - 05 contract and the NR - 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [167][168][169]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Tire exports are increasing month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the BR - 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][172].