2025 年 5 月 27 日 银河能化-20250527 早报 【交易策略】 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-27） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：NYMEX 原油期货因美国阵亡将士纪念日假期休市一天，无结算价； Brent2507 合约 64.74 跌 0.04 美元/桶，环比-0.06%。中国 INE 原油期货主力合约 2507 涨 1.7 至 456.4 元/桶，夜盘跌 0.5 至 455.9 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.61 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 截止 5 月 20 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际交易所美国轻质原油和布伦特 原油期货和期权持有的净多头总计 244665 手，比前一周减少 631 手；相当于减少 63.1 万 桶原油。 美国总统特朗普表示，俄罗斯总统普京对乌克兰发动了战争开始以来最大规模空袭，已经 "完全疯了"，并表示他正在考虑对莫斯科实施新的制裁。克里姆林宫表示可能是情绪过载 导致如此言论。特朗普也抨击了乌克兰总统泽连斯基，称他"说的每一句话都在制造问 题"。 一位巴勒斯坦官员表示，哈马斯已同意美国中东问题特使威特科夫提出的加沙停火建议， 但一位以色列官员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The available capacity of VLCC is relatively sufficient, and the freight rate is likely to continue to be under pressure. The BDTI maintains a weak oscillating trend. OPEC+ has gradually increased production by 411,000 barrels per day since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. In the short term, domestic consumption demand is relatively weak due to refinery maintenance, and the freight rate is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The shipping rhythm also needs to be monitored [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The BDTI maintains a weak oscillating trend. OPEC+ has gradually increased production by 411,000 barrels per day since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. In the short term, domestic consumption demand is relatively weak due to refinery maintenance, and the freight rate is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The shipping rhythm also needs to be monitored [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - On May 23, the Baltic crude oil transport index BDTI was reported at 962, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.92%. The Baltic product oil transport index BCTI was reported at 724, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.40% [3] - In the week of May 23, the weighted earnings of the three major crude oil tanker markets continued to decline. Among them, the weighted earnings of Aframax were $33,012 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 6.91%; the weighted earnings of Suezmax were $38,290 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 9.49%; the weighted earnings of VLCC were $41,710 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 8.96% [10] - On May 22, the Clarkson VLCC-TCE was reported at $42,478 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 4.51%; the Clarkson Suezmax-TCE was reported at $34,785 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 11.12%; the Clarkson Aframax-TCE was reported at $29,408 per day, a month-on-month decrease of 3.07% [10] - The available capacity of VLCC is relatively sufficient, and the freight rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term. The freight rate of Aframax and Suezmax is also declining [11] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - In the week of May 23, the passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased significantly month-on-month. In the week of May 17, the crude oil shipments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia decreased month-on-month, while the crude oil shipments of the United States increased month-on-month [17] - According to the VLCC Suez Canal east-west capacity deployment data, in the week of May 23, 176 VLCCs were deployed west of the Suez Canal, an increase of 4 compared to last week, accounting for 20%; correspondingly, 697 VLCCs were deployed east of the Suez Canal, a decrease of 1 compared to last week, accounting for 80%. The westward market continued to attract ships [18]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 26 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 【逻辑分析】 巴西整体呈现丰产格局，加之国内压榨表现一般，大豆市场总体供应偏宽松。阿根 廷产量同样维持高位，近期压榨量下降同样对后续供应产生压力。美豆新作种植推进顺 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT大豆指数上涨0.45%至1057.75美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数上涨0.33%至302.2 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.油世界：巴西大多数地区收获已经完成，部分州单产结果相对更高。但是南里奥 格兰州单产只有 2 吨/公顷，预估比上年减少 500-600 万吨。但是在此背景下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

国内外糖价延续震荡 关注进口糖到港时间 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西即将迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存即将进入累库阶段，原糖整体维持震荡运行，短期则根据阶段性生产 数据影响盘面节奏，后续还需关注巴西生产进度及实际增产幅度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快、去库前置。考虑到糖浆进口政策进一步收紧，产需缺口如何补足成为市场焦点。考虑到进口糖当前 并未大量进入国内市场，预计对糖价有所支撑。而糖价受到原糖价格偏弱、进口糖价格下跌的拖累，预计上行空间有限，短期 糖价维持震荡走势。 【逻辑分析】 巴西即将迎来压榨高峰，预计短期维持震荡走势，后续还需关注天气变化对甘蔗压榨进度的影响。反观国内，产销比同比偏高 以及库存低位带动近期郑糖走势强于原糖，考虑到原糖短期上行动力不足，预计郑糖维持震荡走势。 【交易策略】 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. 单边 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.98 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas is 3.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [3][6]. - In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - In the week of May 16, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. As of the week of May 15, the average culling age of culled hens was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - As of the week of May 15, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.12 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week. On May 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.8 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the price of culled hens across the country decreased, and the average price in the main production areas was 4.99 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.04 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡偏弱，最终报收 1849（-9/-0.48%）。 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价稳中下探，成交一般。山东 地区主流出厂报价回落，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商出货为 主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂 报价坚挺，贸易商出货，收单量减少，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价稳中下跌，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区春耕结束，交投情 绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商低价出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交受阻， 待发消耗，预计出厂价跟跌为主。检修装置回归，日均产量维持在 20 万吨附近，位于 同期最高水平。需求端，近期，相关部门召集尿素生产企业及协会开会讨论当前尿素出 口可行性，相关具体细节已经公布，当前国内外价差较大，关注国际价格变动对国内影 响。华中、华北地区复合肥生产积极性偏低，基层对高价货抵制，复合肥厂开工 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international methanol device operating rate is oscillating at a high level, with some devices in Iran experiencing short - term shutdowns this week. The daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 31,000 tons but remains high. The import volume in June is expected to increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, and as the arrival volume increases, port inventories are starting to accumulate. Meanwhile, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to a historical high, and the scale of spring maintenance is expected to be less than anticipated, resulting in a continuous and ample domestic supply. Currently, the procurement of CTO in the inland region has ended, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to rise, alleviating the tight supply situation. Additionally, downstream resistance to high prices has led to a continuous decline in inland auction prices. However, trade frictions have eased, limiting the downward space for commodities. With the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and a sharp rebound in crude oil prices last night, it is expected to drive the energy - chemical sector to be temporarily stronger. Methanol is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds rather than chased on the downside [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market oscillated downward, closing at 2241 (-25/-1.1%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 1980 - 2160 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 - 2270 yuan/ton; in the southwest region, prices are 2230 - 2240 yuan/ton; and at ports, prices range from 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - This week (20250516 - 0522), China's methanol production was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mine operating rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has rebounded, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have continued to decline. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 600 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with a continuous and ample domestic supply [6]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined from a high level, the US - dollar price has slightly decreased, the import premium has narrowed, some devices in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, prices in Europe and the US are diverging, the internal - external price difference has been repaired, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 740,000 tons in May, and Iranian tenders have been gradually concluded. Some non - Iranian cargoes have been redirected to China, with an expected import volume of 1.35 - 1.4 million tons in June [6]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has been hovering at a low level, with some MTO devices operating at less - than - full capacity or shutting down [6]. - **Inventory**: With the gradual recovery of imports, stable demand, and import premiums, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis has been consolidating. Inland enterprise inventories have started to rise [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short on rebounds [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell call options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [7][8] - For the cotton yarn industry, the spot market trading is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 contracts decreased by 5, 10, 10, and 15 respectively; the trading volumes of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 decreased by 8315, 238, 124038, and 66 respectively; the open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 increased by 2298, 135, and 4227 respectively, while that of CY09 decreased by 16 [3] - **Spot Price**: CCIndex3128B increased by 17 yuan/ton to 14567 yuan/ton; Cot A increased by 0.65 cents/pound to 78.25 cents/pound; CY IndexC32S decreased by 550 to 20520; FCY IndexC33S decreased by 113 to 21787; Indian S - 6 decreased by 100 to 54200; polyester staple fiber increased by 70 to 7450; pure polyester yarn T32S remained unchanged at 11200; viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 12800; viscose yarn R30S remained unchanged at 17250 [3] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 (down 15), the 5 - 9 spread was 75 (up 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 55 (down 5). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 0 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 19695 (up 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 19695 (down 15). The CY01 - CF01 spread was - 13485 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 was - 13505 (down 10), and CY09 - CF09 was 6265 (down 5). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 668 (down 96), the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 17 (down 61), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: From May 15 - 21, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 21.5mm, 17.5mm higher than normal and 11.9mm higher than last year. From March 1 - May 21, 2025, the cumulative rainfall was 64mm, 37.8mm higher than normal. As of May 20, ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts increased to 39796 bales. As of the week of May 18, in Texas, the weighted average of very short + short surface soil moisture was 54% (17 percentage points higher year - on - year), and the underground was 59% (10 percentage points higher year - on - year). The cotton planting progress reached 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than normal [6] - **Trading Logic**: The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7] - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side**: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The spot market trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' profits are at break - even or slightly profitable. Zhengzhou cotton futures have been strong recently, but spinning mills have not continuously raised cotton yarn prices, and the grey fabric price is also stable. Weaving mills with orders still purchase as needed, and some demand has weakened. Weaving mills are currently on the sidelines [10] 3.3 Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton today is 10.6050, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 9.9%, CF509 - P - 12600 is 12.2%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 14.3% [12] - Strategy: Wait and see [16] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [20][21][25][27]