Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a shipping research report focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][4] - It provides market analysis, strategy recommendations, and industry news for the container shipping market as of December 23, 2025 [5][8] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 23, some shipping companies' spot quotes for early January fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market sentiment and an afternoon drop in the EC index. EC2602 closed at 1806.6 points, down 3.48% from the previous day [5] - The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 1589.2 points, up 5.2% week-on-week but significantly below market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline cargo in the index [5] - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for the New Year. Demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December and little change in January and February. The PA alliance is frequently adjusting capacity between routes [6] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a peak season in January. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythms and the timing of peak prices. The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is ongoing but difficult. There is a resumption of navigation expectation that may suppress far - month contracts [6] Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit, and the remaining positions can be held lightly depending on the situation. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [8] Group 3: Industry News - In the next five weeks (December 22, 2025 - January 25, 2026), out of 704 planned voyages, 53 were cancelled, with a cancellation rate of 8%. The trans - Atlantic westbound route was the most affected, followed by the trans - Pacific eastbound and Asia - Europe/Mediterranean routes. Cancellations in December increased effective capacity by about 2%, and 35 cancellations are expected in early January 2026, releasing about 7% of capacity [8][9] - The global ship schedule punctuality rate (OTP) in November was 49%, up 1 percentage point from October. Since December, the statistical scope has been expanded [9] - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. plans to invest a total of 15.7 billion yuan in building two terminal projects at Dongjiakou Port, with a construction period of about 4 years and expected completion in 2029 [9] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Change Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1606.0 | - 25.0 | - 1.53% | 281.0 | 181.00% | 1890.0 | - 3.37% | | EC2602 | 1806.6 | - 65.2 | - 3.48% | 41660.0 | - 20.95% | 35004.0 | - 4.12% | | EC2604 | 1158.0 | - 8.8 | - 0.75% | 7754.0 | - 33.77% | 20867.0 | 1.93% | | EC2606 | 1331.7 | 11.7 | 0.89% | 372.0 | - 36.63% | 2187.0 | 0.14% | | EC2608 | 1480.0 | - 6.2 | - 0.42% | 141 | - 44.92% | 1199 | 0.17% | | EC2610 | 1052.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.85% | 796 | - 45.07% | 5603 | 3.74% | [3] Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC12 - EC02 | 40.2 | EC12 - EC04 | - 16.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | - 56.4 | EC12 - EC06 | - 36.7 | | EC02 - EC06 | - 76.9 | EC02 - EC08 | - 59 | | EC04 - EC06 | - 20.5 | EC06 - EC08 | 17.9 | [3] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1589.20 | 5.21% | - 52.76% | | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 962.10 | 4.08% | - 47.17% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1552.92 | 3.08% | - 34.87% | | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3238 | 1.77% | - 28.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 1992 | 11.91% | - 50.48% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 2846 | 7.32% | - 48.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1533 | - 0.33% | - 48.26% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 2833 | 3.51% | - 24.37% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2212 | - 4.57% | - 38.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 2.63% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 4.56% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 2015 | 7.12% | 33.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 542 | - 2.52% | - 25.24% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1263 | 1.77% | - 34.29% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | - 0.72% | 0.00% | [3] Fuel Costs | | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 57.76 | 2.45% | - 16.46% | | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 61.54 | 2.36% | - 15.3% | [3]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5648 | 4 | 166 | 241006 | -61992 | 250343 | 129 | | SM主力合约 | 5822 | -18 | 86 | 159916 | -56278 | 280367 | -1468 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 20 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5570 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a strong and volatile state. Although the USDA's December report shows an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, the production remains at a high level. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2158 yuan. The domestic corn market is affected by factors such as seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building. The short - term spot market is relatively strong, but there are still downward risks [4][6]. - The starch market is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, and the corporate profit has declined. The short - term starch spot price is stable, and the 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts on December 23, 2025, showed small fluctuations. For example, C2601 closed at 2210, down 10 or 0.45%; CS2601 closed at 2485, down 12 or 0.48%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different extents [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are stable in some areas, with the price in Qinggang at 2080 yuan, and the basis in different regions ranges from - 176 to 174 yuan. Starch spot prices are also relatively stable, with some prices unchanged and the basis ranging from 166 to 346 yuan. The price of some starch products in Shandong decreased by 30 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods and between varieties also changed. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 15, down 8; CS01 - CS05 spread was - 49, down 14 [2]. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is strong and volatile. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some downstream feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 107.4 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profit has declined. The 03 starch contract followed the corn price down, and the North China corn price may decline in December [7]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Consider going long on the 07 corn contract at a low price [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [10]. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 01 contract, to visually show the price trends and relationships [15][17][20].

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3130 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - Steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Although there is support from manufacturing demand and raw material replenishment expectations, the seasonal decline in building material demand and potential production resumption at the end of the month will suppress the upward space of steel prices [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest shorting the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Important Information - Li Qiang stated that central enterprises should carry out new infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule and play a leading role in achieving self - controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain [9] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, win the battle of ensuring the delivery of buildings, continue to implement the policy "combination punch", and other measures [9][10] Group 3: Related Appendices - The appendices include various charts such as those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 油脂日报 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：宏观情绪较好，棕榈油技术性反弹，今日棕榈油期价震荡小幅 收涨。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日（第 51 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 70 万吨，环比 上周增加 4.73 万吨，增幅 7.25%，近期棕榈油处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行， 进口利润倒挂有所扩大，目前约在-300 附近。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情况。 短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱动，但经历了大幅下跌后目前出现技术性反弹，可考虑逢低试多博 反弹，但反弹高度或有限，方向上维持反弹至区间上沿后逢高空的思路。 今日豆油期价震荡收平。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 213.06 万吨，开机率为 58.61%，较 1 / 5 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market trends, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Anticipated to rise in a volatile manner. The market showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with major indices rising. The contract prices also increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased in some varieties. It's recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a double - buying options strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment was under pressure. Futures prices fell across the board on Monday, and the spot yield was divided. It's advisable to buy the TL contract on dips, with caution on chasing highs and timely profit - taking, and to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market is in a stage of stability with a large decline in the price. The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has price support but limited sustainability. It's recommended to take a bearish view, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short - straddle options strategy [25][26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, while domestic sugar prices are in adjustment after a significant decline. International supply pressure is easing, and the domestic market has supply and cost factors at play. It's suggested to expect bottom - range fluctuations for international sugar and a shock - adjustment trend for domestic sugar, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [28][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is a technical rebound. Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing slightly, and there is limited upward momentum due to factors such as slow de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil. It's recommended to consider buying palm oil on dips for a rebound, with a view of shorting after the rebound, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [32][33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in bottom - range oscillations. U.S. corn shows a strong trend, and domestic corn has different trends in different regions. It's advisable to buy on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35][36]. - **Live Pigs**: The market has a large supply, and spot prices are in a stage of stability. The overall supply pressure remains, and it's recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is in a weak - range oscillation. The supply of oil peanuts is abundant, and it's suggested to short the 03 contract on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and prices are falling. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and it's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for near - term contracts and consider going long on the far - term May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and prices are stable. The apple yield has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is likely to be low. It's advisable to expect limited downward space, conduct a long - 1 and short - 10 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton sales are good, and prices are rising in a volatile manner. The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as potential reduction in planting area and expansion of textile capacity. It's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for U.S. cotton and a rising trend for Chinese cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [49][50][51]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range as the restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled. The black sector was in a volatile and strong trend at night, with changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to expect a volatile and strong trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio and hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [54][55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a bottom - rebound, and attention should be paid to the change in trading logic. The coking coal auction situation has improved, but Mongolian coal brings pressure. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or buy on dips with light positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate as market expectations are fluctuating. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and domestic demand is weak. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: There is a short - term rebound due to cost support and anti - cut - throat competition expectations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is decreasing, and there is cost support. It's recommended to expect a short - term rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a short - straddle options combination [62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical tensions and interest - rate cut expectations drive the price up. Gold reached a new high, and silver also hit a record high. It's recommended to hold long positions for Shanghai gold based on the previous high and hold long positions for Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [64][65][67]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm is high, and attention should be paid to position management. The market shows a strong trend, and it's advisable to go long on dips based on the MA5, conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [68][69][70]. - **Copper**: It's recommended to buy after a full correction. The price is affected by factors such as long - term contract processing fees, inventory, and market sentiment. It's advisable to expect a short - term strong oscillation and a long - term upward trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options [71][72][73]. - **Alumina**: The price is in a weak - range oscillation. Spot prices are falling, and there are factors such as bauxite supply and inventory. It's advisable to expect a weak - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [74][75][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price is oscillating at a high level with strong fundamental support. The global shortage situation persists, and domestic demand has resilience. It's recommended to expect a medium - term upward trend after a correction, conduct an arbitrage when the import loss widens, and stay on the sidelines for options [79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is oscillating at a high level as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The cost provides support, but demand is weakening. It's advisable to expect a high - level oscillation, conduct an arbitrage when the price corrects, and stay on the sidelines for options [80][81]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely as there are both bullish and bearish factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82][83][84]. - **Lead**: The price is oscillating within a range as supply and demand are both weak. The price is affected by factors such as environmental protection and inventory. It's advisable to expect a range - bound oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Nickel**: The price is rising due to Indonesia's policy expectations. The market is affected by import data and policy expectations. It's advisable to expect an upward test of resistance, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a bull - spread options strategy [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is following nickel and showing a strong trend. The price is supported by factors such as inventory and resource tightness. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [90][92]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It's recommended to sell on rallies. The supply is in a state of inventory accumulation, and demand is weak. It's advisable to sell on rallies, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93]. - **Polysilicon**: It's in a long - term upward trend, but short - term risk management is necessary. There are positive factors in the long - term, but short - term demand is weak. It's advisable to be cautious in the short - term, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [94][95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is highly volatile at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The import data and market sentiment affect the price. It's advisable to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [96][97][98]. - **Tin**: The price may be adjusted at a high level as the raw material supply remains tight. The import of tin concentrate has recovered, but downstream consumption is weak. It's advisable to expect a high - level adjustment, stay on the sidelines for options [99][100]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The SCFIS index fails to meet expectations, and the 12 - contract is expected to correct downward. The spot freight rate has improved, but the index is affected by low - price goods. It's recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and pay attention to the freight volume improvement, and expect the far - term contract to be under pressure, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [101][102][104]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is recovering due to geopolitical tensions. The settlement price of crude oil futures has increased. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, conduct an arbitrage on gasoline, diesel, and crude oil spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [106][107]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material has risks, and the spot price is under pressure. The price is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [108][109][110]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are in a weak - oscillating state. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, conduct an arbitrage on the cracking spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [111][113][114]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH is waiting for guidance. The price is affected by weather and demand. It's advisable to buy the HH2602 contract for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [115][116][117]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. The market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [118][119]. - **PX & PTA**: The cost center has risen, and polyester sales have declined. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [120][121][122]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply is abundant, and styrene export boosts market sentiment. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, short pure benzene and long styrene, and stay on the sidelines for options [123][124][126]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is great pressure on inventory reduction. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a short - term oscillation and a medium - term weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [128][129]. - **Short - Fiber**: It rebounds following the cost, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [130][132]. - **Bottle Chip**: It rebounds following the cost, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [133][134]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are weak, and downstream profit improvement is poor with no obvious increase in开工. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [135][136]. - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of primary plastic production has slightly narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to hold short positions in the L - 2605 contract and set a stop - loss, and try long positions in the PP - 2605 contract with a stop - loss, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [137][138]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140][142]. - **PVC**: The price is continuing to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [143][144]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is continuing to decline. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - term contract [146][147]. - **Glass**: The futures price is in a weak trend. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating within a range. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating and strong trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [150][152]. - **Urea**: Downstream resists high prices. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to go long on the 05 contract, conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [153][154]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating widely at a high level with weak reality and strong expectation. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or short on a small scale for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [155][156][158]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [161][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory has reached a new high, and cost support is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [165][166]. - **Natural Rubber**: The growth rate of tire exports has narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the RU - 05 contract and the NR - 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [167][168][169]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Tire exports are increasing month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the BR - 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][172].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report date: December 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price: 797.5, down 0.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 781.5, up 1.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 760.5, up 2.5 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: 16.0, down 2.0 from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 21.0, down 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: -37.0, up 3.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - PB powder (60.8%) price: 791, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 793, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 787, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 748, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 781, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 677, down 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 831, up 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 837, up 1 from yesterday [2] - FMG price: 738, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 874, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 877, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 875, up 2 from yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 765, up 1 from yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 871, up 1 from yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 732, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 807, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Optimal delivery product: Carajás powder [2] Group 4: Spot Price Spreads and Import Profits - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 79, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 45, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 126, up 1 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 47, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 72, up 3 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 14, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 110, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 118, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 77, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder import profit: -29, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 50, up 18 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: -3, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 42, up 13 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: -3, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 88, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 10, up 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 41, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 9, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Platts Index and USD Spreads - Platts Iron Ore 62% price: 108.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 65% price: 121.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 58% price: 94.0, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE01 spread: 0.9, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE05 spread: 3.2, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE09 spread: 6.0, down 0.5 from yesterday [2]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.0 | 0.9 | 0.06% | 100.0 | -46.24% | 1,956.0 | -1.36% | | EC2602 | 1,871.8 | 152.0 | 8.84% | 52,704.0 | 66.66% | 36,510.0 | 15.88% | | EC2604 | 1,166.8 | 38.0 | 3.37% | 11,708.0 | 177.11% | 20,471.0 | 8.67% | | EC26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is expected to be limited [16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy Spot Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remains light. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has decreased, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of ordinary and lower - quality apples from fruit farmers have loosened. In the sales areas, the sales are still slow, with the sales volume lower than the same period last year. Oranges and other citrus fruits are competing with apples [6] - In Shandong, a small number of traders package self - stored goods for shipment. The export demand has decreased, and the prices of fruit for preserves and small fruits have loosened. In Shaanxi, the prices of fruit from fruit farmers in secondary production areas have slightly declined, and the overall shipment is mainly from traders' self - stored goods. The Christmas and New Year stocking atmosphere is not strong [6] Supply Analysis - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 54.70%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points this week. The cold - storage shipment has increased, especially for inferior fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 52.59%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Traders are more pessimistic, and the demand for low - quality fruits is okay [11] - As of December 17, 2025, the total cold - storage apple inventory in the main production areas is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from last week, and the sales are slower than last year [11] Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of arriving trucks has increased. The market is generally light, with only high - quality apples from Gansu selling well. Second - and third - level wholesalers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and the inventory in transit warehouses is piling up [14] - As of December 18, the average wholesale price of six key monitored fruits is 7.66 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14] Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to low production and poor quality, the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the market is currently weak, the downward space is limited [16] - Unilateral: The futures market is technically weak, but the downward space is limited [16] - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the October contract [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - The document presents historical data on national, Shandong, and Shaanxi cold - storage apple inventory and shipment, but no specific analysis is given [23] Spread and Basis - The document shows historical data on the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts, but no specific analysis is given [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The apple yield has decreased this year, with a poor high - quality fruit rate and increased storage difficulty. Cold - storage inventory data is low, and the effective inventory is likely to be low, indicating a strong fundamental situation for apples. Although the market sales are average recently and the market shows technical weakness, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited considering the yield issue [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.74, up 0.06. Prices of some varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 9575, down 10; AP05 is at 9149, down 50; AP10 is at 8101, down 49. The spreads between contracts also show some changes, such as AP01 - AP05 up 40 and AP05 - AP10 down 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts shows some fluctuations. For example, the basis against AP01 is - 1375, up 10 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News** - As of December 17, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.57 million tons, with sales slower than the same period last year [7]. - In October 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 is 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. The export volume in October 2025 is about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7]. - The apple market remains stable, with increased trading activity in production areas. In Shandong, traders mainly buy low - price and other - variety products. In the northwest, traders mainly package their own inventory, and the sales of third - grade and inferior fruits are okay [7]. - In Shaanxi's Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity cold - storage apples (70 and above) is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin. Traders mainly package their own inventory, and farmers are willing to sell but still hold out for higher prices [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and watch whether key levels can be effectively broken [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on 1 and short on 10 [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some places, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [11][13][18][20][23].