大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 17 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属部分多头在 FOMC 会议结果即将公布之际 获利了结，出现跳水。伦敦金当前回落至 3665 美元附近; 伦敦当前回落至 41.6 美 元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 0.36%，报 835.08 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终 收涨 1.77%，报 9906 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅反弹，当前交投于 96.8 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率低位盘整，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元再度走强，当前交投于 7.1055 附近。 1 / 8 【重要资讯】 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 场博弈聚焦于交 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 1/ 5 大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 804.5 | 803.5 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 782.5 | 782.0 | 0.5 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 19.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 763.5 | 762.5 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | -41.0 | -41.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 785 | 776 | 9 | 855 | 43 | 65 | 84 | | 纽曼粉 | 793 | 786 | 7 | 849 | 37 | 59 | 78 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 776 | 9 | 85 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates are in a downward channel, and the decline is expected to slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year due to tariff suppression. The 10 - contract valuation has room to decline, and trading strategies include weak oscillations for single - sided trading and specific arbitrage operations [8][9][11]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - and - a - half - month high. Large - vessel market freight rates are expected to be supported in the short term but lack strong upward momentum. Medium - vessel market transportation demand has certain support and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The oil transportation market shows obvious differentiation. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Data** - **Futures Disk**: On September 17, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1,109.7, down 60.0 or 5.13%. Different contracts showed different price and volume changes [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1440.24 points, down 8.06% week - on - week and 62.24% year - on - year. Different routes had different freight rate changes [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategies** - **Analysis**: Spot freight rates are falling, and the impact of the closure of the Polish border on China - Europe freight trains continues. The freight rate center in the second half of September dropped to around 1400 - 1700 US dollars/FEU. The market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and tariffs [8][9]. - **Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be weakly oscillating. For the 10 - contract, short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage operations at low levels and enter 2 - 4 positive arbitrage at low levels [11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 0.05% to 2154 points. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 1.1% to 3189 points, while the Panamax vessel freight index fell 1.8% to 1968 points [18][19]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels had different freight rate changes on September 16 and as of September 12 [18][20]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazilian grain exports in September are expected to increase [21]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The rise in Capesize vessel freight rates offset the decline of smaller vessels. The large - vessel market is supported by Australian end - of - season cargo releases, but the cargo volume is expected to decrease from mid - October. The medium - vessel market has certain transportation demand support, mainly in a fluctuating trend [22]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1137, up 0.8% week - on - week and 26.76% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 609, up 0.66% week - on - week and down 4.55% year - on - year [28][29]. - **Average Earnings**: VLCC average earnings were $57,975 per day, up 58.71% week - on - week and 90.00% year - on - year; Suezmax average earnings were $45,871 per day, up 43.38% week - on - week and down 14.04% year - on - year [28]. - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [28]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. The VLCC market is improving due to tight supply and slightly higher - than - expected cargo volume [29]. - **Industry News** - OPEC+ representatives will discuss updating member production capacity estimates in Vienna from September 18 - 19, aiming to determine new production baselines and 2027 production targets [30]. - On September 15, oil prices continued to rise due to supply interruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Trump's call for NATO to stop buying Russian oil [31].

Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated September 17, 2025, provided by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of domestic peanuts and imported peanuts have remained stable. Although the supply is still low and downstream demand is weak, peanut prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are also stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable. The 11 - contract peanuts are starting to strengthen and will experience short - term bottom - range fluctuations. It is expected that the output of the new peanut season will be similar to last year, and with the decrease in planting costs and the partial listing of new peanuts, the 11 - contract peanuts will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [5][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7868, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 438 (up 0.46%); PK510 closed at 7818, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 2,259 (down 56.49%) and an open interest of 10,545 (down 11.45%); PK601 closed at 7828, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 8,669 (down 54.73%) and an open interest of 46,165 (up 2.74%) [3] - **Spot Market**: In Henan Nanyang, peanuts were priced at 8600 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton); in Shandong Jining and Linyi, they were 8400 yuan/ton (stable). The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350 yuan/ton (stable), Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), peanut oil was 14670 yuan/ton (stable), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8560 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (stable) [3] - **Spread**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 40 (up 6); the PK04 - PK10 spread was 50 (stable); the PK10 - PK01 spread was - 10 (down 6) [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.1 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.2 - 4.35 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin (stable). The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and Senegalese oil peanuts were 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton (stable). Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the pre - stop mainstream transaction price at 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was priced at 14800 yuan/ton (stable), and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton (stable). Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, with peanut meal expected to be weak in the short - term [5][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 11 - contract peanuts are fluctuating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilization, one can try to go long on the 05 - contract peanuts [12] - **Spread**: Wait and see [13] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between the 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between the 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3237 | 3236 | 1 | HC05-RB05 | 162 | 174 | -12 | | RB10 | 3074 | 3069 | 5 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 364 | -14 | | RB01 | 3168 | 3166 | 2 | HC01-RB01 | 222 | 236 | -14 | | RB01-RB05 | -69 | -70 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | - 04 | -97 | 3 | | RB05-RB10 | 163 | 167 | -4 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -85 | -90 | 5 | RB05/105 | 4.14 | 4.14 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 17, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,787 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.05% increase. The rise in crude oil and futures boosted market sentiment. In Shandong and North China, some projects rushed to meet deadlines, leading to smooth refinery shipments and some traders raising prices, driving up the average market price. In East China, supply was abundant with low - price shipping resources, and in South China, demand was general but prices were stable due to cost support [5]. - The weekly production remained high and demand increased month - on - month. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain was stably driven. Refinery inventories were low and stable, while social inventories intended to actively reduce before the end of the year. Asphalt supply was still relatively loose, and with good refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation was relatively high. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and the cost of asphalt lacked clear drivers. The single - side was expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread would be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 17, the BU2511 (main contract) was 3,445 yuan, up 34 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3,404 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%; BU2601 was 3,386 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%. SC2510 was 499.3 yuan, up 5.7 yuan or 1.15%, and Brent first - line was 67.89 US dollars, up 0.8 US dollars or 1.12%. The main contract position was 234,000 lots, down 0.1 lots or - 0.42%, and the main contract trading volume was 141,000 lots, down 21,000 lots or - 13.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 65,360 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: BU12 - 01 was 18.00 yuan, unchanged; BU11 - 12 was 41.00 yuan, up 4.00 yuan or 10.81%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 246.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 10.87%; the East China - main contract basis was 116.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 20.55%; the South China - main contract basis was 86.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 25.86% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; East China market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; South China market price was 3,490 yuan, unchanged. Shandong gasoline was 7,520 yuan, up 10.00 yuan or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6,485 yuan, up 24.00 yuan or 0.37%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2,920 yuan, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6.5, unchanged, and the exchange rate mid - price was 7.1013, down 0.00 or - 0.02% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit was - 59.08 yuan, down 27.60 yuan or - 87.71%; refined oil comprehensive profit was 339.88 yuan, down 21.20 yuan or - 5.87%; BU - SC cracking was - 632.50 yuan, down 15.06 yuan or - 2.44%; gasoline spot - Brent was 928.06 yuan, down 30.39 yuan or - 3.17%; diesel spot - Brent was 702.13 yuan, down 18.00 yuan or - 2.50% [2]. 2. Market Judgement - **Market Overview**: The domestic asphalt market average price increased slightly. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price rose 5 yuan to 3,640 - 3,750 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,650 - 3,700 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,480 - 3,530 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of asphalt were both strong, but the supply was relatively loose. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and asphalt was expected to fluctuate on the single - side. The cracking spread would be bearish in the medium term, and the BU2511 contract was expected to operate between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provided several figures including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Black Metal Research Report" and "Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily" [1][2] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约: closed at 5766, up 66 for the day and 138 for the week, with a trading volume of 165,669 (down 45,267) and an open interest of 212,449 (down 4,542) [4] - SM主力合约: closed at 5990, up 46 for the day and 136 for the week, with a trading volume of 169,284 (down 50,960) and an open interest of 326,849 (down 8,872) [4] Spot - Silicon - iron: prices in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton (down 50 for the day, up 40 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 50 for the week) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 316 (down 116 for the day, down 98 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 260 (down 46 for the day, down 86 for the week) [4] - SF - SM spread was - 224 (up 20 for the day, up 2 for the week) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Semi - carbonated South African ore was 34.3 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.3 for the week) [4] - Gabon lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi, it was 660 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 10 for the week) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With a warm macro - sentiment, prices are short - term strong, but the pressure of high supply remains, so the target should not be set too high [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [6] Silicon - iron - On September 17, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 30 - 50 yuan/ton drop. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Demand data was average, increasing expectations of domestic stimulus policies after the Fed's potential rate cut. Market sentiment was boosted by Sino - US trade talks. It rebounded but faced high - supply pressure [5] Manganese - silicon - On September 17, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and manganese - silicon spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 yuan/ton drop. Supply increased slightly and remained high. Demand was dragged down by the decline in electric furnace operating rates. Cost was supported by low port inventories of manganese ore. It will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] Group 4: Important Information - On September 17, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump (Mn41.5%) was 40.2 yuan/ton degree, South African medium - iron lump (Mn42%Fe17%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 40.3 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn39.8%Fe7.6%) was 36 yuan/ton degree [7] - From January to August 2025, enterprise income tax revenue was 3.1477 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and individual income tax revenue was 1.0547 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon - iron - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5550 yuan/ton, profit was - 150 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: production cost was 5603 yuan/ton, profit was - 203 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: production cost was 5615 yuan/ton, profit was - 235 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: production cost was 5568 yuan/ton, profit was - 288 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: production cost was 5618 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [16] Manganese - silicon - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5807 yuan/ton, profit was - 127 yuan/ton [21] - Ningxia: production cost was 5918 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [21] - Guangxi: production cost was 6381 yuan/ton, profit was - 701 yuan/ton [21] - Guizhou: production cost was 6120 yuan/ton, profit was - 470 yuan/ton [21]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The main contract of IM rose 1.13% to close at 7,462 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 261,972 lots, an increase of 67,583 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 379,927 lots, an increase of 23,224 lots from the previous day [4]. - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 21.63 points, up 25.34 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -26.45%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.76 points, 3.32 points, 4.46 points, and 6.17 points respectively [5]. 2.2 Positions - The data shows the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of top - ranking member firms for different contracts such as IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603, along with their changes from the previous day [22][24][25]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The main contract of IF fell 0.16% to close at 4,516.8 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 153,511 lots, an increase of 15,747 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 276,592 lots, an increase of 9,133 lots from the previous day [27][28]. - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 6.54 points, down 1.28 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -13.21%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0.67 points, 5.68 points, 8.88 points, and 16.88 points respectively [28]. 3.2 Positions - The data presents the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of top - ranking member firms for different contracts such as IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603, along with their changes from the previous day [43][44][45]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The main contract of IC rose 0.65% to close at 7,165.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 161,577 lots, an increase of 24,221 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 262,891 lots, an increase of 13,259 lots from the previous day [48]. - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 25.79 points, down 2.63 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -32.85%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.62 points, 3.91 points, 5.85 points, and 10.78 points respectively [48][49]. 3.2 Positions - The data shows the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of top - ranking member firms for different contracts such as IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603, along with their changes from the previous day [61][62][64]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The main contract of IH fell 0.36% to close at 2,951.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 59,526 lots, an increase of 4,178 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 100,750 lots, an increase of 2,226 lots from the previous day [67]. - The main contract of IH was at a premium of 3.58 points, up 3.4 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was 1.38%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0.73 points, 5.89 points, 8.17 points, and 15.99 points respectively [68]. 3.2 Positions - The data presents the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of top - ranking member firms for different contracts such as IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603, along with their changes from the previous day [82][85][87].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable due to less supply and weak downstream demand, and the new - season peanut output is expected to increase with lower planting costs. 11 - contract peanuts are in a bottom - range oscillation. The report suggests waiting for stabilization before considering long positions in 05 - contract peanuts [5][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7866 with a 0.33% increase, trading volume decreased by 64.00%, and open interest decreased by 0.46%; PK510 closed at 7816 with a 0.20% increase, trading volume decreased by 22.44%, and open interest decreased by 16.95%; PK601 closed at 7820 with a 0.36% increase, trading volume increased by 94.40%, and open interest increased by 11.56% [3] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9000, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change. The basis of Henan Nanyang was 1184, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 584. Imported Sudanese rice was priced at 8500 with no change [3] - **Spread**: PK01 - PK04 spread was - 46 with a 2 increase; PK04 - PK10 spread was 50 with a 10 increase; PK10 - PK01 spread was - 4 with a 12 decrease [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan declined while those in the Northeast remained stable. Imported peanut prices were stable. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil were stable. By - product prices were also stable, but the unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, and peanut meal was expected to be weak in the short term [5][8] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for 11 - contract peanuts, and consider going long on 05 - contract peanuts after stabilization [11] - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [12] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including those on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, and spreads between different peanut contracts [15][21][24]

Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report on ferroalloys, dated September 16, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Core Views - On September 16, ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated strongly. The silicon ferroalloy main - contract closed at 5700, with no change in price and a decrease of 810 in positions; the manganese silicon main - contract closed at 5944, up 0.64% with an increase of 7995 in positions [7] - Silicon ferroalloy: Spot prices rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton on the 16th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market expectations for domestic stimulus policies increased. Short - term prices rebounded but high - supply pressure persisted, so the target should not be set too high [7] - Manganese silicon: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port rose on the 16th, and manganese silicon spot prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly and remained high, demand was under pressure, but cost support from low manganese ore port inventories existed. In the short - term, it will oscillate at the bottom [7] Market Information Futures - SF main - contract closed at 5700, with 0 daily change, 80 weekly change, 210936 in volume (up 10793), and 213259 in positions (down 810) - SM main - contract closed at 5944, up 38 daily, up 106 weekly, with 220244 in volume (up 36188), and 335721 in positions (up 7995) [4] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 0 - 120 yuan/ton daily and 90 - 150 yuan/ton weekly - Manganese silicon: The prices of manganese silicon 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton daily and 50 - 130 yuan/ton weekly [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 100 daily and 10 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 120 daily and 40 weekly; SF - SM spread changed by - 38 daily and - 26 weekly - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 12 daily and - 56 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 62 daily and 24 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump prices changed by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree daily and 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/ton degree weekly - Blue charcoal small materials: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia changed by 0 - 20 yuan/ton weekly [4] Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading is heating up again. In the short - term, it follows a strong trend, but high - supply pressure persists, so the target should not be set too high - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [8] Important Information - On the 16th, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump Mn46% quoted at 42 (up 0.5), traded around 41.5; Australian lump Mn42% quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded around 40; South African lump quoted at 34.5, traded at 34 - 34.5; Gabon lump quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded at 39.5 - 40 (up 0.2) (unit: yuan/ton degree) - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state and had in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues [9] Related Attachments Cost and Profit - Silicon ferroalloy: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5550, 5603, 5615, 5568, and 5618 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 150, 203, 235, 288, and 318 yuan/ton - Manganese silicon: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5807, 5918, 6381, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 127, 318, 701, and 470 yuan/ton [17][22]