1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term supply is expected to be loose, increasing the risk of high - level pressure on tin prices [4] - In February 2026, the Shanghai tin market is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. High inventory is a potential risk, and any falsification of demand expectations or alleviation of supply concerns may trigger a rapid correction [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of Shanghai tin started low and went high. It started from 326,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, accelerated after the landslide in the Congo - Kinshasa mining area on January 13th, reached a record high of 469,800 yuan/ton on the night session of January 29th, and ended the month oscillating around 432,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of over 35%. LME tin also reached a new high of $59,000/ton on January 29th [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The Shanghai tin market in February is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The sharp price increase is driven by the resonance of capital sentiment, industrial theme narratives, and macro - liquidity expectations. High inventory is a risk factor [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish in the short term. The supply resumption rhythm is advancing, and the long - term demand as a "computing power metal" provides support. Be vigilant against rapid corrections caused by changes in the macro - environment. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, tin prices have shown a rapid upward trend with a maximum amplitude of 68.7%. The price increase in 2025 was mainly due to supply - side speculations in Myanmar, Congo (Kinshasa), and Indonesia. In January 2026, the tin market had a pattern of "partial supply release, weak demand recovery, and seasonal inventory accumulation". Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, and overall consumption showed weak recovery [11] 3.2.2 Tight Supply at the Mine End - After the significant increase in tin ore imports from Myanmar in November, there are two interpretations of the increment. The second possibility (mine restoration and resumption) is more likely according to December data. In 2025, the cumulative imported tin ore metal from Myanmar decreased by 37.79% year - on - year, accounting for 18.62% of the total imports. In January, the import volume is expected to remain stable. Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining intensified supply concerns, but the sharp decline in exports in October was due to temporary license issues, which have been resolved. Indonesia is expected to increase its tin mining production quota by 13.2% in 2026. Congo (Kinshasa) has geopolitical risks [16][18] 3.2.3 Slight Decline in December Output, and Stable but Lacking Upward Momentum in January - In December 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.06% month - on - month, with an annual output of 178,700 tons, a 2.81% year - on - year decrease. In December, tin imports increased by 29.54% month - on - month but decreased by 48.24% year - on - year. Exports increased by 41.84% month - on - month and 32.58% year - on - year [23] 3.2.4 Terminal Consumption - Overall, tin consumption is at the bottom - building stage with weak consumption. - **Consumer Electronics**: Semiconductor sales showed a good growth trend. In 2025, the global semiconductor sales from January to November increased by 22.07% year - on - year. The global smartphone shipments increased by 1.75% in 2025, and China's mobile phone shipments from January to November increased by 1.30%. China's integrated circuit output increased by 9.73% in 2025 [30][33] - **Photovoltaic**: After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, orders declined rapidly. In 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 14.22% year - on - year, but the single - month installed capacity in December decreased by 40.54% year - on - year. The cumulative output of photovoltaic modules from January to December decreased by 1.21% year - on - year [39][41] - **Tin Chemicals**: Tin chemicals mainly refer to PVC stabilizers, whose demand is closely related to real estate completion. In 2025, the real estate completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, and the long - term consumption of tin chemicals may be affected [43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In February, tin prices are expected to continue the high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The price may be affected by factors such as the follow - up impact of the Congo - Kinshasa landslide, long - term demand in emerging fields, high inventory pressure, and supply resumption. The core operating range may be between 400,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include Myanmar's resumption progress, domestic smelter operations, electronic orders, emerging consumption, and inventory de - stocking speed [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the demand for industrial silicon will decline significantly, with a possible 50% production cut by large Xinjiang silicone manufacturers, and a reduction of about 15,000 tons in polysilicon production compared to January. The supply mainly depends on the production cut plans of leading large manufacturers. If they cut production as planned, the monthly output of industrial silicon will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons to 300,000 tons compared to January. [6] - If large manufacturers cut production of industrial silicon and silicone as planned, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in February will be balanced or there will be a slight inventory reduction. In the context of a bull market in the commodity market, industrial silicon, as a "low - valuation" variety, may experience an upward trend under the logic of "fundamental improvement". However, in the medium term, without changes in the cost side and supply - side policies, a price above 9,500 yuan/ton can stimulate an increase in supply. In the second quarter, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to be weak. Overall, the price of industrial silicon in February may first strengthen and then weaken, with a reference range of (8,500, 9,500). [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Supply - Demand Outlook - In February, large Xinjiang silicone manufacturers may cut production by half. The polysilicon operating rate remains unchanged, but Tongwei stopped production at the end of January, resulting in a reduction of about 15,000 tons in polysilicon production in February compared to January. The demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy and exports remains stable for the time being, but the overall demand for industrial silicon in February will decline significantly. In terms of supply, the operating rates in Southwest China, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia will not change much in February, and the focus is on the production cut plans of leading large manufacturers. If they cut production as planned, the monthly output of industrial silicon will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons to 300,000 tons compared to January. [6] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - If large manufacturers cut production of industrial silicon and silicone as planned, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in February will be balanced or there will be a slight inventory reduction. In the context of a bull market in the commodity market, industrial silicon, as a "low - valuation" variety, may experience an upward trend under the logic of "fundamental improvement". However, in the medium term, without changes in the cost side and supply - side policies, a price above 9,500 yuan/ton can stimulate an increase in supply. In March, some polysilicon enterprises will resume production, but in the case of weak terminal demand, some enterprises may further cut production. Therefore, the demand for industrial silicon in the second quarter will be weak. Overall, the price of industrial silicon in February may first strengthen and then weaken, with a reference range of (8,500, 9,500). [7] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Conduct range operations with a price reference of (8,500, 9,500). - Arbitrage: None for the time being. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with a price range of (8,400, 9,100). In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were both weak. The production cuts of silicone and polysilicon dragged down the demand, and the production cut of industrial silicon by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and the maintenance of some industrial silicon enterprises in the northwest reduced the supply of industrial silicon. In terms of cost, the material prices of industrial silicon were generally stable in January, and the fluctuations of coking coal futures were not significant. The impact of cost - side disturbances on the market was limited. In January, the commodity market had a strong bullish atmosphere, but the fundamentals of industrial silicon were poor, the valuation was moderately low, and the market enthusiasm was average, resulting in a narrow - range price fluctuation. [12] 3.2.2 Demand: The demand for industrial silicon in February will decline month - on - month - **DMC production**: The DMC production in February will decrease month - on - month. [21] - **Polysilicon production**: The polysilicon production in February will decrease. The total domestic polysilicon production in February is expected to be 81,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons compared to January. [24] - **Aluminum alloy and exports**: The demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy and exports is resilient. [27] 3.2.3 Supply: The production of industrial silicon in February mainly depends on the production cut plans of leading large manufacturers - The operating rates in Southwest China, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia will not change much in February. The focus is on the production cut plans of leading large manufacturers. If they cut production as planned, the monthly output of industrial silicon will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons to 300,000 tons compared to January. [6][32] 3.2.4 Cost and Inventory: The cost is temporarily stable, and the inventory is high but not significantly bearish - The cost of industrial silicon is mainly affected by the prices of raw materials such as coking coal and silica. Currently, the prices of these raw materials are relatively stable, so the cost of industrial silicon is temporarily stable. The inventory of industrial silicon is high, but considering the possible production cuts of large manufacturers and the potential improvement in demand, the high inventory does not significantly suppress the price. [45] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The demand for industrial silicon in February will decline, and the supply mainly depends on the production cut plans of large manufacturers. If they cut production as planned, the supply and demand will be balanced or there will be a slight inventory reduction. [6] - **Trading Logic**: In February, industrial silicon may experience an upward trend under the logic of "fundamental improvement", but in the medium term, the price above 9,500 yuan/ton can stimulate an increase in supply. The demand in the second quarter is expected to be weak. The price in February may first strengthen and then weaken, with a reference range of (8,500, 9,500). [7] - **Operation Strategy**: Unilateral operations should be conducted within the range of (8,500, 9,500), and out - of - the - money call options can be sold on rallies. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market due to profit - taking near the holiday. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [3][5][68] - The Malaysian palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. The combined inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not very loose. [4][14][68] - There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, such as following the rise of palm oil and the positive outlook for US biodiesel, but there is no prominent core contradiction. The supply pressure may be postponed. [4][40][68] - Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short - term. The price has support below and is still affected by policy disturbances. [4][43][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the oil and fat market rebounded after reaching the bottom and fluctuated upward overall. Palm oil rose by about 7.8%, soybean oil by about 5.7%, and rapeseed oil by about 2.8% due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. The OI - Y 05 and OI - P 05 spreads continued to narrow. [3][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil may cut production and reduce inventory in January, but the inventory may remain high. There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider shorting lightly at high levels or waiting for a correction to go long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels. - Options: Stay on the sidelines. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in January, the oil and fat market fluctuated upward. Palm oil was pushed up by factors such as the market's view that the negative news was exhausted and Indonesia's plan to raise the Levy tax in March. The expectation of US biodiesel also boosted the market. Rapeseed oil was affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations. [10] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil in January May Cut Production and Reduce Inventory, and Indonesia Seizes Illegal Plantations - In December, Malaysian palm oil inventory unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons. In January, production is expected to decrease to about 1.57 million tons, and inventory may reduce to around 2.85 million tons but remain at a relatively high historical level. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly. Indonesia has seized illegal plantations, which may affect production in the short - term. The price of Indonesian palm oil is rising, and the export tax will be increased in March. [13][14][21] 3.2.3 India Has Soybean Oil Wash - Sales, and Palm Oil Imports May Increase - In December, India's edible oil imports decreased compared with the same period last year. The inventory of palm oil in ports decreased slightly, while that of soybean oil and sunflower oil increased. Currently, there is no import profit for the three major edible oils in India. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is rising, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging. It is expected that India will import about 680,000 tons of palm oil in January. [29][30] 3.2.4 Sino - Canadian Rapeseed Trade Disturbances Still Exist, and Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory Continues to Decline - Palm oil inventory is slightly decreasing, and the import profit is negative. It is expected to continue to decline slightly. Soybean oil inventory is also decreasing slightly, and there are potential positive factors. Rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and it is affected by policy. [39][40][43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Palm oil may need a correction and maintains a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and Y35 reverse arbitrage can be considered at high levels. Rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space and is affected by policy. [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the international market, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a historically high level. Although the increase in Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations, its output is still at a high level in the same period over the years. In the Northern Hemisphere, India's sugar production is currently at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase in this season's sugar production is likely to be higher than the previous market expectations. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than that of last year, and the final increase in sugar production may also fall short of expectations. The Chinese market is still in an increasing - production cycle. Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is still in the process of realizing the expected increase in production. For the 2026/27 season, the world sugar production will still be at a high level, but there are differences in the market regarding the increase or decrease compared with this season. In the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to mainly focus on the realization of the expected increase in production. Considering that the international sugar price is already low, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited, and it will probably fluctuate in the bottom range [4][12][88]. - In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term domestic sugar supply is large. The market demand before the Spring Festival is acceptable, but it is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. Therefore, there is no short - term upward driving force for white sugar. However, considering that the current sugar price is at a relatively low level over the years and lower than the production cost in most areas of Guangxi, and there is also strong support near the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar, the sugar price in February is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation, and the oscillation range is likely to be similar to that in January [4][88]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the international sugar price showed a fluctuating trend, with the fluctuation range around 14.5 - 15 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also fluctuated, with the range between 5100 - 5300 yuan per ton. Recently, Brazil's sugar - crushing is coming to an end, its sugar export volume is decreasing, and its influence on the global sugar price is weakening. The market has begun to focus on the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Currently, the increase in India's sugar production may be higher than expected, while the increase in Thailand's sugar production may be lower than expected. Although the sugar price is at a low level, there is still resistance to the upside, so the international sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing, with sufficient white - sugar supply and great market sales pressure. There is strong resistance to the upside of the white - sugar price, but the space is relatively limited due to the support from the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar [3][8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International market: The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a high level. The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1630000 tons in the 2025/26 season, with an expected year - on - year increase of 3.15% in sugar production to 181.77 million tons and only a 0.6% increase in consumption to 180.14 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, there are differences in the market's expectations for the increase or decrease in global production. The Green Pool expects that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, but the surplus will decrease to 156000 tons [4][12][13]. - Domestic market: It is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term sugar supply is large, and the demand is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. The sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February, with a range similar to that in January [4][88]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface, in January, the international and domestic sugar prices fluctuated, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere's production [3][8]. 3.2.2 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The global sugar production in the 25/26 season is increasing and at a high level. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1630000 tons. Brazil's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, but the increase may fall short of expectations. India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase may be higher than expected. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than last year, and the increase may fall short of expectations. China's sugar production in Guangxi may increase, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the 2026/27 season's global sugar production [12][13]. 3.2.3 Brazil: Sugar Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations, and Export Volume Decreases Seasonally - Due to the increasing enthusiasm of Brazilian sugar mills to produce ethanol in the later stage of the crushing season, the increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season may fall short of expectations. As of the second half of December, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 341000 tons. The whole - Brazil sugar production in this season is expected to increase by only about 500000 tons year - on - year, lower than the previous market expectation of 1000000 tons. The ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio is decreasing seasonally. In December, Brazil's sugar export volume decreased. The sugar inventory is also decreasing seasonally, and the influence of Brazilian sugar on the market is weakening [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 India: New Season's Production Increase May Exceed Expectations; Thailand: Sugar Production Decreases Slightly Year - on - Year - India: The ISMA expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting the amount for ethanol production). The demand is expected to be about 28.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400000 tons. As of January 15, the cumulative sugar production in India has reached 15.885 million tons, 8.8% higher than the average of the past five years. The number of operating sugar mills has increased. The 2 - month sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50000 tons compared with January. In October, the net export volume of Indian sugar was 186200 tons. In the 26/27 season, the probability of the El Nino climate forming in summer increases, which may affect India's sugar production [40][41][43]. - Thailand: The market expects Thailand's sugar production to reach 11 million tons in the 25/26 season, and the export volume is expected to increase by about 1 million tons. However, as of January 15, the cumulative sugar production was 2.5835 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. The cumulative sugar - production rate is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Although the sugar production is likely to increase this season, the increase will be lower than expected. As of November 2025, the cumulative sugar export volume was 5.385 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%, but still at a relatively low level compared with previous years [44]. 3.2.5 Guangxi: Centralized Crushing Time Is Slightly Postponed; Yunnan: High Sugar Production - In this sugar - making season, Guangxi's crushing progress is behind, so both sugar production and inventory are low. Yunnan's crushing progress is slightly ahead, and there is a large amount of foreign - sourced sugarcane entering the market, so the sugar production and inventory are high. In January, the crushing progress in both regions is expected to accelerate, and the production and sales data are expected to be optimistic. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 809500 tons. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar production was 392300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65400 tons. The third - party inventory in Guangxi in January was about 745200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 667400 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 224200 tons [56][58][59]. 3.2.6 December: High Import Volume; January: Expected Import Volume Decrease - In December 2025, China imported 580000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562200 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 1.7635 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 301700 tons. The sugar - import volume in January is expected to decrease seasonally [75]. 3.2.7 December: Decrease in Imported Syrup and Premixed Powder - In December 2025, China imported a total of 69700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120800 tons. In 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons. As of the end of December in the 25/26 season, the total import volume was 299600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 339500 tons. The decrease is mainly due to the expansion of the scope and number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder are suspended by the customs [84][85]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the content in the preface, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February [4][88]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6].

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 2 月月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 市场预期反复，矿价高位承压 第一部分 前言概要 黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 2 月月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 银河期货 第 1 页 共 18 页 第二部分 铁矿石市场数据回顾 图 1：普氏铁矿价格 图 2：PB 粉价格 70 100 130 160 190 220 250 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 图 3：卡粉-PB 粉价差 图 4：PB 粉-超特粉价差 第 2 页 共 18 页 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the bond market sentiment recovered, but there were still negative factors. The monthly macro - data announced in January was mixed. External demand drove strong resilience in the production end, but the improvement of domestic demand was limited. The "re - inflation" progress was confirmed, but price structure differentiation remained obvious. The corporate sector's financing demand continued to rise, while the household sector continued the "de - leveraging" trend. The central bank maintained its care for inter - bank market liquidity and indicated that there was still room for overall easing this year, but the probability of short - term overall easing was low. The risks of the short - and medium - term bond market were controllable, but the odds of going long in the short - term were limited. The stage of the smoothest decline in ultra - long - term yields had passed. In February, there might be seasonal fluctuations in the capital market, and market sentiment might turn cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached after the Spring Festival [2][3][76] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In January, the bond futures market first declined and then rose, and the bond market sentiment improved since the middle of the month. As of January 30, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL changed by - 0.05%, + 0.15%, + 0.45%, and + 0.48% respectively. The valuation of bond futures was mostly at a relatively low - to - neutral level. As of January 29, the IRRs of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were 1.3258%, 1.4564%, 1.3652%, and 2.4065% respectively [2] 3.2 Market Logic 3.2.1 Economic Data: Mixed and Differentiated - In Q4 2025, GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations, and the annual economic growth target of 5% was achieved. In December, supported by external demand, industrial production was resilient, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q4 also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 74.9%. However, the domestic demand recovery was weak. In December, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, with single - month year - on - year growth at - 15.1%. Real estate development investment decreased by 35.8% year - on - year. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month [7][16] 3.2.2 "Re - inflation" Progress with Structural Differentiation - The domestic "re - inflation" progress was confirmed, with the Q4 GDP deflator at - 0.65%, up 0.44 percentage points from Q3. In December, CPI was in line with expectations, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth of + 0.8% and + 0.2% respectively. The core CPI was + 1.2% year - on - year, flat with the previous month. PPI slightly exceeded market expectations, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth of - 1.9% and + 0.2% respectively. The price structure was still differentiated, and the upstream raw material prices might squeeze the downstream manufacturing profits. It is expected that domestic PPI may turn positive in Q2 [22][26][34] 3.2.3 Corporate Financing Demand Rising, Household Sector "De - leveraging" - In December, new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The household sector continued to "de - leverage", with loans decreasing by 91.6 billion yuan. The corporate sector's new loans were 1.07 trillion yuan, 580 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, 646.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The main reason was the significant decrease in government bond financing. M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points, while M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [40][44] 3.2.4 Balanced Capital Market, Central Bank Confirming Easing Space - In January, the capital market was balanced, and the disturbances from factors such as tax payments, government bond issuance, and end - of - month seasonality were controllable. Short - term capital prices gradually returned to the policy interest rate center. The central bank continued to care for market liquidity, with a net injection of 1 trillion yuan in medium - and long - term liquidity through repurchase and MLF operations. The central bank maintained a loose monetary policy, indicating that there was still room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year. However, the implementation of structural "broad credit" in January reduced the probability of short - term overall easing [49][60][62] 3.2.5 High - spirited Risk Asset Market, Attention to Regulatory Changes - Since the beginning of the year, the sentiment in the equity and some commodity markets has been high, but regulatory attitudes have changed. In the commodity market, anti - monopoly news in the photovoltaic industry emerged. In the equity market, the minimum margin ratio for margin trading was increased. The regulatory measures to cool down the risk asset market were favorable for the bond market, but the current risk asset market was still hot, and the marginal changes in liquidity might affect the short - end of the bond market [66][67] 3.3 Outlook and Investment Strategy - The macro - data in January was mixed, not clearly negative for the bond market. The central bank maintained its care for liquidity and there was room for overall easing, but the short - term probability of overall easing was low. The risks of the short - and medium - term bond market were controllable, but the odds of going long in the short - term were limited. The stage of the smoothest decline in ultra - long - term yields had passed. In February, there might be seasonal fluctuations in the capital market, and market sentiment might turn cautious. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, but consider going long on the TF contract if the short - and medium - term adjusts significantly. In terms of arbitrage, pay attention to narrowing the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds and potential inter - delivery arbitrage opportunities during the contract roll - over period [76][77]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 7 | | | 四、库存与估值 | 9 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 "天气与地缘"双双驱动油价上行 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，国际原油期货上演了"天气与地缘"双驱动的震荡上行行 情。受到地缘政治紧张及欧美寒潮天气影响，油价逆势走强，整体呈现偏强震 荡格局。截至 1 月下旬，两大基准油价较 2025 年末显著上涨 10 美元/桶。 其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 1 月 29 日收于 65.51 美元/桶，当月累计上 涨约 14.1%；英国布伦特原油期货收于 69.71 美元/桶，涨幅更是达到 14.5%。 地缘政治风险是本月核心支撑，市场对主要产油 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 5 - month apple futures contract has a strong fundamental situation, and its price center is expected to continue to rise. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices. The 10 - month contract is for the new fruit season, with an expected increase in production, so it is recommended to build short positions at high prices after it rises following the 5 - month contract. Also, it is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [5][6][34] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Preface Summary - **Market Review**: In January, the main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated slightly stronger, and the price center shifted from the previous range of 8,900 - 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,400 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The reasons were low apple storage volume this season, poor quality of cold - stored apples, and high cost of making apple warehouse receipts [4][9] - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the cold - storage apple inventory is low and of poor quality, being at the second - lowest level in recent years, with supply slightly tight. On the demand side, the Spring Festival is late this year, and the pre - festival stocking market has started, with current demand being acceptable. On the cost side, the cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, around 9,700 - 10,000 yuan/ton currently, and the cost of the 5 - month contract is likely to be higher [5][34] Part 2: Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: In January, due to the late Spring Festival, the large - scale apple sales started late. In the first few weeks, the apple sales volume was lower year - on - year, and the spot price weakened slightly. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commodity was around 4.2 yuan/jin, 0.6 yuan/jin higher than last year. In Shandong, the trading price of Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods dropped slightly by 0.1 yuan/jin to around 4 yuan/jin, 0.25 yuan/jin higher than last year. The main - continuous price of apple futures in January fluctuated slightly stronger, and the price center shifted up [9] - **Accelerated Cold - Storage De - stocking**: The cold - storage inventory this year is at the second - lowest level in recent years. Due to slow sales in the early stage, the inventory reduction rate was slow, but recently, with pre - Spring Festival stocking, the sales volume increased, and the inventory reduction rate widened again. As of January 29, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from the previous week and 336,500 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.9%. Different regions had different inventory changes. It is expected that the cold - storage inventory will continue to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival and slow down after the Spring Festival, but the de - stocking rate will not be too low in March and April [10][13] - **Pre - Spring Festival Stocking and Acceptable Apple Demand**: In January, apple sales were average in the first two weeks and improved in the last two weeks with the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. The weekly sales volumes in the first four weeks were 126,600 tons, 162,500 tons, 218,800 tons, and 287,300 tons respectively. The sales volume is expected to remain high in the first two weeks of February and decline after the Spring Festival. The arrival volume at the three major wholesale markets in Guangzhou increased in the last two weeks of January, and it is expected to remain high before the Spring Festival and decline significantly after the Spring Festival [19] - **Import and Export Situation**: In December 2025, the domestic apple export volume increased significantly, with 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. The annual cumulative export volume in 2025 was about 962,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.94%. The export volume in January is expected to remain at a seasonal high but may decrease compared with December. In December 2025, the domestic apple import volume was at a seasonal low, with 31,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%. The import volume in January is expected to remain low [26] - **Substitute Situation**: In January, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits fluctuated slightly upward, starting at 7.92 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and reaching 7.96 yuan/kg currently, at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected to remain high before and after the Spring Festival, which will support the apple price. The average wholesale price of Ya pears decreased slightly in January, from 6.71 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 6.52 yuan/kg currently, at a slightly lower - than - medium level, and its supporting effect on apples is relatively limited. Overall, the impact of substitutes on apples is relatively limited [30] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: The 5 - month contract has a strong fundamental situation, and its price center is expected to continue to rise. If the apple demand remains strong in the next two months, the price center of the 5 - month contract will likely continue to rise; if the demand weakens, the market may be weak first and then rise after de - stocking. The 10 - month contract is for the new fruit season, with an expected increase in production [5][34] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For the 5 - month contract, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices; for the 10 - month contract, it is recommended to build short positions at high prices. It is also recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [6]

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International LNG: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [6][53]. - US HH: Short - term price surges are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are closely related to temperature. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness [6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded sharply in January. TTF rose nearly 35% from $9.7 per MMBTU to over $13 per MMBTU, driven by cold weather and geopolitical tensions [5]. - US HH: Prices had a roller - coaster ride. In early January, they dropped to around $3 per MMBTU due to warm weather and high production. Then, they soared to $7.46 per MMBTU on January 19th due to cold snap expectations [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International LNG: Short - term supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is restricted. Long - term supply growth and reduced demand after winter will lead to price declines [6]. - US HH: Cold snaps cause short - term price spikes. After the cold snap, supply and demand will improve. Prices are temperature - dependent, and in February, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short HH second - quarter contracts; short TTF or JKM third - quarter contracts. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded in January due to cold expectations, low inventory, and geopolitical concerns. The first - line price rose from about $9.3 per MMBTU to a maximum of $15 per MMBTU [11]. - US HH: Prices had a V - shaped reversal in January. They fell in the first half due to mild weather and high production, then soared in the last two weeks due to cold snap expectations and a short - squeeze [11]. 3.2.2 US Market Fundamentals - Supply: As of January 28th, the average daily dry - gas production in January was about 110.6 billion cubic feet, down 2.6% from the previous month but up 6.6% year - on - year. After the cold snap on January's end, supply dropped to about 96 billion cubic feet per day, a nearly 16% decline from the monthly high [15][17]. - Demand: As of January 28th, the average daily domestic consumption in January was about 109.3 billion cubic feet, down 5.2% year - on - year. After the cold snap, daily demand reached about 140 billion cubic feet [15]. - Inventory: As of January 23rd, the total natural - gas inventory was 2823 billion cubic feet, up 9.8% year - on - year and 5.3% higher than the five - year average [16]. 3.2.3 International LNG Market Fundamentals - Europe: As of January 26th, the inventory level was 513.6 TWh, down 20.3% year - on - year, only 44.9%. The inventory consumption was faster in January. Local production decreased slightly, while imports reached a record high. Industrial demand did not recover, and gas - power demand growth was not obvious. The 2 - month cold expectation is strong, and there is no obvious expectation of wind - power expansion [25][27]. - China: In 2025, production increased 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased 2.9%. In December, production and imports increased year - on - year. As of January 23rd, LNG receiving - station and storage - reservoir inventory levels were higher than last year [31]. - Japan and South Korea: Japan's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 204,300 tons, up 2.3% month - on - month but down 4.7% year - on - year. As of January 23rd, the utility LNG inventory was 2.26 million tons. South Korea's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 142,100 tons, down 5.6% month - on - month and flat year - on - year. As of December, the LNG inventory was about 3.3 million tons, close to last year's level [32]. 3.2.4 Weather Forecast - China: North China will warm up slightly and then cool down, with overall temperatures lower than average in the next month. East China will be warm in early February and slightly cooler than normal in late February. South China's temperatures will be slightly higher than average in February [41]. - Japan and South Korea: They will warm up in early February and then cool down again, with overall temperatures slightly colder than average in the next month [41]. - US: It will remain cold in early February, and temperatures will be significantly lower than average after the cold snap. The cold expectation is strong in February [41]. - Europe: Northwest Europe will be slightly colder than average in the next two weeks and extremely cold in mid - February. Central Europe will cool down sharply in early February, warm up briefly but still be colder than normal. Italy's wind power will be strong in the short - term, and Germany's will be weak in February [41]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook - International LNG Market: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [53]. - US Market: Short - term price spikes are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are temperature - dependent. In the second quarter, the market situation depends on post - winter inventory levels [54].