Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the return of near - end TA maintenance and the increase in start - up, polyester load slightly rising, inventory remaining stable, basis being weak, and spot processing fees at a low level. As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits. In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Catalog PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 2, PTA inner - market spot increased by 10, POY 150D/48F decreased by 5. Naphtha cracking spread remained unchanged, PX processing spread decreased by 2, PTA processing spread remained unchanged, polyester gross profit remained unchanged, PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts decreased by 7889. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-77) [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end TA maintenance returns, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory remains stable, basis is weak, and spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up increases, overseas devices restart, PXN remains month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remain, isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains stable [2]. - **Outlook**: As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 12, MEG East China price decreased by 12, MEG far - month price decreased by 5, MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and MEG port inventory remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot transaction was around 01(+82) [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks [2]. - **Outlook**: EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. remained mostly unchanged. The profit of staple fiber and pure - polyester yarn remained unchanged, the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 5, and the difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6470, and the market basis was around 10 - 40 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits [2]. - **Outlook**: In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of various rubber products changed. For example, the daily change of US - dollar Thai standard spot was - 10, the daily change of RMB mixed rubber was - 150, etc. The weekly change of some products also showed certain fluctuations. The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping [2]. - **Strategy**: The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (East China) was - 15, the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) was - 15. The Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha remained unchanged on the day of September 17, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 15, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 15 [5].

钢厂废钢库存 � 2022 � 2023 � 2024 � 2025 043 700 据显圆形 ● 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 90 600 据曾原H 80 500 70 60 400 50 300 40 200 30 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 品质H 华东螺废价差 江苏电炉螺纹利润 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 300 1,600 1,600 200 1,400 100 1,200 0 -100 1,000 -200 800 -300 600 -400 -500 400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 RBH UU SOURCE POINT UUU SOURCE POINT UU SOURCE POINT ( ) 据吕良州 照顾H 000 COO 張点資訊 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on September 18, 2025, presenting relevant price, ratio, spread, and theoretical spread data [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 80,600, March price is 80,550, LME March price is 10,065, and the ratio is 8.00 [1]. - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22,170, March price is 22,310, LME March price is 2,989, and the ratio is 5.70 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20,890, March price is 20,930, LME March price is 2,707, and the ratio is 7.73 [1]. - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 120,700, and the spot import profit is - 1,549.65 [1]. - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16,925, March price is 17,115, LME March price is 2,005, and the ratio is 11.08 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 320, - 330, - 330, - 310, while the theoretical spreads are 506, 911, 1324, 1738 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 30, 55, 85, 120, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 35, - 45, - 55, - 65, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 333, 450, 567 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 55, 60, 80, 70, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 529 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are - 620, - 430, - 240, 60 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 40, and the theoretical spread is 5,648 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 310 and - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 524 and 924 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 85 and 115, and the theoretical spreads are 203 and 332 (also mentioned as 200 and 320) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 185, and the theoretical spreads are 197 and 310 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.61, 3.85, 4.71, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 respectively [5].

农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/18 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/11 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 | 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025/09/12 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 63 | 40 | 321 | 2800 | 2850 | 231 | -27 | | 2025/09/15 | 2230 | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 93 | 30 | 270 | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -27 | | 2025/09/16 | - | 2260 ...

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1220左右，送到沙河1230左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存较大幅度下行，交割库大幅累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1143 1144 1143 1060 1104 1107 1234 1342 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/17） 昨日(9/16） 一周前(9/10） 一月前(8/18） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价 ...

金十数据9月17日讯，16日，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，过去一天，俄军多个集团军继续在苏梅、哈尔科夫、顿涅茨 克、扎波罗热等方向打击乌军。俄军摧毁了乌军燃料库、西方供乌武器装备后勤配送中心和远程无人机储存和发射点。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部同一天称，16日凌晨乌克兰特种作战部队与国防军其他单位协同作战，再次对俄罗斯萨拉托夫 州炼油厂实施精确打击。目标区域发生爆炸及火灾，具体情况仍在核实中。乌军称这一炼油厂为俄军作战供应石油产 品。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/17 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/10 | 63.67 | 6 ...

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/10 | 3160 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3300 | 3260 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 10 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [3]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral, and the overseas markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is oscillating, and powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda export is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 1 to September 6, 2025, the daily change of动力煤期货 is 0, the江苏现货 decreased by 3, the华南现货 decreased by 2, the鲁南折盘面 remained unchanged, the西南折盘面 increased by 35, the河北折盘面 increased by 5, the西北折盘面 increased by 22, the CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 remained unchanged, the进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 decreased by 5, and the盘面MTO利润 increased by 67 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From September 1 to September 6, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged, the华北LL remained unchanged, the华东LL increased by 50, the华东LD increased by 25, the华东HD remained unchanged, the LL美金 and LL美湾 remained unchanged, the进口利润 increased by 2, the主力期货 decreased by 10, the基差 remained unchanged, the两油库存 remained unchanged, and the仓单 remained unchanged [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From September 10 to September 16, 2025, the山东丙烯 decreased by 50, the东北亚丙烯 remained unchanged, the华东PP increased by 25, the华北PP increased by 5, the山东粉料 remained unchanged, the华东共聚 remained unchanged, the PP美金 and PP美湾 remained unchanged, the出口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 increased by 4, the基差 decreased by 20, the两油库存 remained unchanged, and the仓单 remained unchanged [3]. PVC - Price Data: From September 10 to September 16, 2025, the西北电石 increased by 50, the山东烧碱 decreased by 20, the电石法 - 华东 increased by 50, the乙烯法 - 华东 remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华南 remained unchanged, the电石法 - 西北 remained unchanged, the进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained unchanged, the出口利润 remained unchanged, the西北综合利润 remained unchanged, the华北综合利润 remained unchanged, and the基差 (高端交割品) remained unchanged [3].