音烙橡胶呈报 81+ 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/05 P 不 As 占 段 F POY 1 石脑油日 PX CFR PTA内盘现 仓单+有 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 50D/4 聚酯毛利 TA基美 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 台湾 न्ह 解价差 K 荷 负荷 8F Hill 2026/0 5245 7030 103558 0.30 70.7 596 921 77.70 325.0 374 113 77.1 76.6 -78 1/29 2026/0 914 70.7 597 5280 7120 78.34 317.0 443 171 75.4 76.6 103558 -78 0.30 1/30 图H 2026/0 7120 5095 367 75.4 -76 0.25 66.3 581 892 95.40 311.0 382 76.6 103558 2/02 2026/0 67.3 584 897 5080 90.22 313.0 103568 7095 345 372 75.4 76.6 -68 0.15 2/03 2026/0 l RiH 7020 69.5 598 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for metals such as lead, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and tin on February 5, 2026, including prices, price differences, equilibrium price ratios, and profits [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Lead**: On February 5, 2026, the domestic spot price was 16,400, the LME spot price was 1,915, and the spot price ratio was 8.58. The domestic three - month price was 16,670, the LME three - month price was 1,966, and the price ratio was 12.69. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.55, and the profit was 63.60 [2] - **Copper**: The domestic spot price was 104,190, the LME spot price was 13,374, and the spot price ratio was 7.77. The domestic three - month price was 105,450, the LME three - month price was 13,456, and the price ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 7.88, with a profit of - 1050.86, and the profit for spot export was - 390.83 [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24,910, the LME spot price was 3,328, and the spot price ratio was 7.48. The domestic three - month price was 24,925, the LME three - month price was 3,351, and the price ratio was 4.96. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.28, with a profit of - 2647.04 [7] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23,750, the LME spot price was 3,088, and the spot price ratio was 7.69. The domestic three - month price was 24,040, the LME three - month price was 3,116, and the price ratio was 7.72. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a profit of - 2025.22 [7] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 136,200, the LME spot price was 17,383, and the spot price ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1126.11 [7] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The price differences between the next month and the spot month, three - month and the spot month, four - month and the spot month, and five - month and the spot month were 1,020, 1,310, 1,470, and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical price differences were 623, 1,143, 1,673, and 2,203 respectively [3] - **Zinc**: The price differences were - 30, 10, 65, and 70 respectively, and the theoretical price differences were 228, 361, 495, and 628 respectively [3] - **Aluminum**: The price differences were 230, 315, 375, and 425 respectively, and the theoretical price differences were 230, 360, 491, and 622 respectively [3] - **Lead**: The price differences were 30, 110, 175, and 240 respectively, and the theoretical price differences were 208, 312, 415, and 519 respectively [3] - **Nickel**: The price differences were 3,560, 3,840, 4,150, and 4,150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The price difference between the 5 - month and 1 - month was - 3,520, and the theoretical price difference was 8,108 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The price differences between the current - month contract and the spot, and the next - month contract and the spot were - 245 and 775 respectively, while the theoretical price differences were 276 and 999 respectively [3] - **Zinc**: The price differences were 5 and - 25 respectively, and the theoretical price differences were 115 and 259 respectively [3] - **Lead**: The price differences were 160 and 190 respectively, and the theoretical price differences were 136 and 246 respectively [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On February 5, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.23, 4.39, 6.33, 0.96, 1.44, and 0.67 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.94, 4.25, 6.63, 0.93, 1.56, and 0.59 respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -4 on 1/6 to -31 on 2/4, with a daily change of -12 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 6 on 1/6 to -11 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -14 on 1/6 to -61 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread changed from 10 on 1/6 to 2 on 2/4, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 8 on 2/4, with no daily change [3] - The 06 - 09 spread changed from 15 on 1/6 to 23 on 2/4, with a daily change of 4 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3361 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 52 [3] - The trading volume was 282,920 on 2/4, a decrease of 20,689 (-33%) compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest was 387,150 on 2/4, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous day [3] - The combined volume was 13,580 on 2/4, with no change [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price was 67.0 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 0.8 [3] - Jingbo's asphalt price was 3260 on 2/4, with no change [3] - The non-Jingbo Shandong asphalt price was 3250 on 2/4, an increase of 40 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price was 3350 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3300 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 405 on 2/4, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day [3]

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 1.03% | 54.3 | 612 | | 1883 | -456 | | | EC2604 | | 1237.9 | 4.50% | 554.2 | 29296 | | 34229 | 423 | | | EC2606 | | 1533.7 | 1.36% | 258.4 | 3147 | | 13458 | 860 | | | EC2608 | | 1597.9 | -0.62% | 194.2 | 353 | | 1479 | 29 | | | EC2610 | | 1128.6 | -0.12% | 663.5 | 1355 | | 7677 | -207 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | 周环比 | ...

点评: 当前地缘犹动较高。近月来看，马士基2月报价企稳、3月抢运预期、4月淡季预期、以及长办价格压制下，共同推动04合约在1100-1250点区间 震荡。建议04保持谨慎做空，关注盘面是否出现显著溢价（向上空间更多取决于资金行为，尤其是当前基差300点，需谨防多头资金拉涨），后 续重点关注PA联盟报价情况和地缘形势。 远月来看，建议仍以逢高空10为主，主要基于淡季与退院利空逻辑。06和08估值难锚定，合理范围内宽幅震荡，地缘犹动下建议谨慎操作。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合約 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 1.03% | 54.3 | 612 | | 1883 | -456 | | | EC2604 | | 1237.9 | 4.50% | 554.2 | 29296 | | 34229 | 423 | | | EC ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/28 | 63.21 | 68.40 | 61.88 | 1.57 | 1.03 | -5.19 | 2.68 | 189.23 | 11.08 | 266.61 | 43.58 | | 2026/01/29 | 65.42 | 70.71 | 62.01 | 1.35 | 1.12 | -5.29 | 2.80 | 192.00 | 9.93 | 258.54 | 37.88 | | 2026/01/3 ...

研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 269 322 8 -55 - 2026/01/2 9 801 2300 2290 2375 - 2275 2385 271 322 -4 -55 - 2026/01/3 0 801 2275 2280 2378 - 2275 2385 268 323 -4 -55 - 2026/02/0 2 801 2237 2228 2385 - 2275 2385 268 323 -39 -37 - 2026/02/0 3 801 2225 2238 2385 - 2330 2385 - - - -45 - 日度变化 0 -12 10 0 - 55 0 - - - -8 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MT ...

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 SP主力合约收盘价： 5276.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/03 | 2026/02/02 | 2026/01/30 | 2026/01/29 | 2026/01/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5276.00 | 5266.00 | 5300.00 | 5388.00 | 5374.00 | | 折美元价 | 664.21 | 661.49 | 666.08 | 677.54 | 675.82 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.18990% | -0.64151% | -1.63326% | 0.26051% | 0.59903% | | 山东银星基差 | 99 | 109 | 75 | 12 | 26 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 114 | 124 | 90 | 12 | 26 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/04 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/28 | 3160 | 3230 | 3310 | 3240 | 3410 | 3320 | | 2026/01/29 | 3160 | 3280 | 3340 | 3240 | 3410 | 3350 | | 2026/01/30 | 3160 | 3240 | 3340 | 3240 | 3450 | 3310 | | 2026/02/02 | 3120 | 3210 | 3340 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/03 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/2/4 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1485.59 | 0.00 | 54.61 | 54.61 | -4.56% 高炉开工率 | 85.47 | | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.98% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | 14.90% 铁水日均产量 | 227.98 | | -0.12 | 0.55 | #N/A | | 山东准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | -3.17% 盘面05 | 1721 | 3.00 | 51.50 | 54.00 | -1.85% ...