Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic market rises and then fluctuates. The 02 basis is 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 spread is 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 spread is -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts is 6218 lots (-180). The price of civil gas increases, with Shandong at 4400 (+40), East China at 4467 (+70), and South China at 4840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods rises. The FEI and CP spreads decline slightly, and the MB spread rises slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuates. Both domestic and foreign markets strengthen, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China, is 79 (+13). The AFB recovers to some extent but is still poor. The port storage capacity ratio is 0.14 pct due to limited arrivals; refineries have a small destocking of -0.47%, and external sales increase by 1.07777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data and trends in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed. There are changes in production, inventory, and export data of major countries, which will have an impact on the market supply and demand situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual US Soybean Information - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 is 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [1]. - The estimated planted area is 81.2 million acres, and the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, both slightly increased compared to December [1]. - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, the same as in December [1]. - The estimated production is 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion bushels in December [1]. - The estimated export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, down from 1.635 billion bushels in December [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production in 2025/26 is 178 million tons, up from 175 million tons in December, and the estimated export volume is 114 million tons, up from 112.5 million tons in December [1]. - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from December [1]. - China's estimated soybean import volume is 112 million tons, unchanged from December [1]. - The global estimated soybean production is 425.68 million tons, up from 422.54 million tons in December, and the estimated ending inventory is 124.41 million tons, up from 122.37 million tons in December [1]. 3.3 US Soybean Inventory on December 1, 2025 - The total soybean inventory in the US on December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 3.1 billion bushels on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The on - farm inventory was 1.576 billion bushels, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the off - farm inventory was 1.714 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the previous year [1]. - The apparent consumption of soybeans from September to November 2025 was 1.3 billion bushels, a 20% decrease from the previous year [1]. 3.4 US Soybean Export Inspection Volume - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1,275,000 tons [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.91% of the total [1]. - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 17,934,546 tons, compared with 31,324,934 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. 3.5 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.6%, better than 0.3% in the same period of the previous year [1]. - Brazil exported 645,737.53 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 107,622.92 tons, a 121% increase from the average daily export volume in January of the previous year [1]. 3.6 Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous month, while the production decreased by 20.49% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December 2025 soared to a nearly seven - year high, reaching 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month [1]. - The palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, but it was still the highest output in December in eight years [1]. - The palm oil export in December increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons, reversing the decline of the previous month [1]. 3.7 Global Rapeseed Situation - The estimated global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 95.172 million tons, an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 12.184 million tons, an increase of 2.384 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed oil production is 35.65 million tons, an increase of 1.482 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 3.299 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed meal production is 50.912 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 1.561 million tons, an increase of 0.125 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume in 2025/26 is 7.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.131 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.035 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed meal export volume is 5.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.199 million tons year - on - year [1]. 3.8 Spot Prices - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2][3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report presents cross - market, inter - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 13, 2026, to assist investors in identifying potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3] Group 3: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 103225, LME 13257, ratio 7.61; March price: domestic 103980, LME 13193, ratio 7.84; equilibrium ratio for spot import 7.92, profit -1040.64, profit for spot export 977.85 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 24140, LME 3141, ratio 7.69; March price: domestic 24175, LME 3182, ratio 5.48; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.34, profit -2042.72 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 24340, LME 3181, ratio 7.65; March price: domestic 24650, LME 3171, ratio 7.74; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.32, profit -2133.30 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 141050, LME 17930, ratio 7.87; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.00, profit 1072.78 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 17300, LME 2016, ratio 8.56; March price: domestic 17475, LME 2060, ratio 11.68; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.53, profit 58.78 [3] Group 4: Inter - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2590, 2770, 2750, 2890 respectively; theoretical spreads are 608, 1114, 1629, 2144 respectively [3] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 205, 255, 285, 305 respectively; theoretical spreads are 223, 351, 480, 608 respectively [3] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 120, 195, 215, 265 respectively; theoretical spreads are 233, 368, 502, 636 respectively [3] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 100, 135, 165, 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 535 respectively [3] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 6200, 6390, 6680, 6830 respectively Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 5130, theoretical spread is 7640 [3] Group 5: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are -1965 and 625 respectively; theoretical spreads are -164 and 782 respectively [3] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are -220 and -15 respectively; theoretical spreads are 77 and 217 (or 102 and 264) respectively [3] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 40 and 140 respectively; theoretical spreads are 90 and 205 respectively [3] Group 6: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.30, 4.22, 5.95, 1.02, 1.41, 0.72 respectively; London (three - continuous) are 4.11, 4.15, 6.43, 0.99, 1.55, 0.64 respectively [3]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 700.0 3.0 12.0 -70.0 -70.0 25省终端可用天数 20.8 0.4 0.9 -0.1 3.2 秦皇岛5000 611.0 4.0 20.0 -58.0 -64.0 25省终端供煤 564.0 -0.2 -44.6 -76.1 -58.9 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -40.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2629.0 28.0 92.0 -135.0 297.7 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 5.0 -25.0 -70.0 北方锚地船舶 118.0 2.0 45.0 53.0 36.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 5.0 -25.0 -85.0 北方港调入量 146.9 13.8 21.7 -10.2 7.1 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -22.0 -72.0 北方港吞吐量 89.8 -44.4 -58.3 -50.0 -54.2 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 610.6 1.5 -25.2 -32. ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/13 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 2161 | 2255 | 2036 | 2231 | 2213 | 2093 | | 2026/01/07 | 2163 | 2254 | 2036 | 2233 | 2213 | 2096 | | 2026/01/08 | 2170 | 2260 | 2041 | 2242 | 2214 | 2098 | | 2026/01/09 | 2170 | 2259 | 2043 | 2241 | 2214 | 2102 | | 2026/01/12 | 2171 | 2260 | 2043 | 2243 | 2214 | 2105 | | 环比 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 13, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price in Changchun remained at 2160, while in Jinzhou it increased by 20 to 2280. The prices in Weifang and Shekou remained stable at 2230 and 2430 respectively. Corn's basis decreased by 7 to -10, trade profit decreased by 20 to 0, and import profit increased to 292. For starch, the basis decreased by 31 to 89, and processing profit remained at -71 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to farmers' price - holding, limited supply increase, low inventory, and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, depending on pre - festival downstream stocking enthusiasm [3] - Medium - to long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory reduction [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning were stable at 5390, while Nanning increased by 10 to 5360. The price in Kunming remained at 5230. The basis increased by 3 to 105, Thai import profit increased by 18 to 201, Brazilian import profit increased by 18 to 378, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 11568 [6] Market Analysis - International: In the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production. Pay attention to the actual realization of the production increase [6] - Domestic: Short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Medium - to long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will move towards the out - of - quota import cost [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 145 to 15365. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 275 to 9962. The price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.56, the import price decreased by 5 to 21600, the import profit increased by 19 to 1072, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 147 to -533 [19] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable tariff policies after the China - US meeting in Busan, cotton demand is expected to improve this year, suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.11, 0.11, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.02 respectively. The basis decreased by 12 to 320. The prices of white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs remained stable at 3.80, 3.65, and decreased by 0.14 to 17.83 respectively [14] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to future inventory decline lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens before Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [15] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, and Shaanxi 70 general apples remained at 4. The national inventory increased by 21 to 673.37 (as of January 8), Shandong inventory increased by 59 to 257.98 (as of January 8), and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 9. The 1 - month basis increased by 22 to -1078, the 5 - month basis increased by 59 to -730, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 10 to 419 [17][18] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple market is still light. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have declined. The inventory removal rate has slightly increased, but it is still lower than the same period last year. The short - term futures market may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, depending on inventory removal [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.05 to 12.88, 13.35, and 13.50 respectively, while the prices in Hubei Xiangyang and Shandong Linyi increased by 0.05 to 12.95 and 13.12 respectively. The basis decreased by 15 to 1145 [18] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near term. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is a daily report on volatility data, including the calculation methods of implied volatility indices and the meaning of the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Implied Volatility Index, Historical Volatility and Their Spread Chart - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the implied volatility index of commodity options is weighted by the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates that a larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the implied volatility is relatively lower [3]. Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the implied volatility is low [5]. - The volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5].

Economic Overview - The US unemployment rate has decreased to 4.4%, while non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, indicating a cautious hiring environment [9][12] - Consumer confidence in the US has risen to a four-month high, with the Michigan University consumer sentiment index at 54, up from 52.9 in December [12][16] - In Iran, widespread protests challenge the theocratic regime, marking the most severe test since the 1979 Islamic Revolution [9][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4120.43 points, marking a continuous upward trend with 16 consecutive days of gains [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.32% to 26231.79 points, with significant gains in the gold and internet healthcare sectors [1][6] - Major US indices also saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.48% to 49504.07 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.65% to 6966.28 points [1][6] Industry Insights - China's top antitrust authority has initiated an investigation into the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform industry, citing concerns over subsidy-driven price wars that are squeezing the real economy [9][12] - Major platforms like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com have committed to cooperating with the investigation [12] - The investigation aims to promote lawful and fair competition within the market, addressing the issue of "involution" in the industry [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Contents SP Main Contract Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 9, 2026, was 5550.00 [4] - The price fluctuations from January 5 - 9, 2026, showed changes in closing prices, converted US - dollar prices, daily price changes, and basis differences in different regions [4] Import Pulp Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for different pulp brands from various origins, details of port US - dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and import profits were provided. For example, Canadian Golden Lion had a CFR port US - dollar price of 780 and an import profit of 77.83 [5] National and Regional Pulp Average Prices - From January 5 - 9, 2026, the national and Shandong regional average prices of different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, and chemimechanical) remained unchanged [5] Paper Index and Profit Margin - From January 6 - 9, 2026, the cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper indexes showed little change, except for a 2 - point increase in the living paper index [5] - The profit margin estimates of different papers also had some changes. For example, the living paper profit margin increased by 0.8126 from January 6 - 9, 2026 [5] Pulp Price Spreads - From January 5 - 9, 2026, the price spreads between different types of pulp, such as coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural color, coniferous - chemimechanical, and coniferous - waste paper, showed certain fluctuations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on January 12, 2026, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5320, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 50; the latest price of the main contract was 5632, with a daily change of -36 and a weekly change of 8 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on the same day, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy at the production area ex - factory price was 5700, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 50; the latest price of the main contract was 5904, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 30 [2]. Supply - The production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly) is presented from 2022 - 2026, with the data ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 [5]. - The production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2022 - 2026 is shown, with the data ranging from 5500 to 9000 [7]. Demand - The estimated and revised production volume of crude steel in China (monthly, in 10,000 tons) from 2022 - 2026 is provided, with the data ranging from 6500 to 10000 [5]. - The demand for silicon manganese in China (in 10,000 tons, according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2022 - 2026 is presented, with the data ranging from 12 to 26 [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly) from 2022 - 2026 is shown, with the data ranging from 30,000 to 110,000 [6]. - The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2022 - 2026 is presented, with the data ranging from 6500 to 9500 [8]. Cost - Profit - The electricity price for ferroalloys in different regions (daily) from 2022 - 2026 is provided, such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [6]. - The production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2022 - 2026 are presented [6]. - The profit of silicon manganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region) from 2022 - 2026 is shown [8].