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s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指示 | 11/7 | 12/3 | 12/5 | 12/8 | 12/9 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 12 | 78 | 42 | 51 | -2863 | -2914 | - | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 142 | 88 | 92 | 81 | -2943 | -3024 | 1. | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 182 | 18 | -18 | ﮯ | -2943 | -2944 | - | | | 12-01 | 4 | -25 | -26 | -22 | -21 | | | | | 12-03 | -38 | -52 | -51 | -62 | -56 | 6 | | | | 01-02 | -16 | -9 | -11 | -18 | -15 | 3 | | | 4:11:1 | BU主力合约(01) | 3048 | 2952 | 2948 | 2959 | 2943 | -16 | | | ...

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 10, 2025 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 92,220, LME price is not given, and the three - month price in China is 91,170 with an LME price of 11,470 and a ratio of 8.00. Spot import and export profit data are not provided [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 23,190, LME price is 3,264 with a ratio of 7.10. Three - month price in China is 23,080, LME price is 3,102 with a ratio of 5.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.43, and the profit is - 4,325.31 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21,880, LME price is 2,826 with a ratio of 7.75. Three - month price in China is 21,825, LME price is 2,858 with a ratio of 7.64. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31, and the profit is - 1,606.98 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 120,300, LME price is 14,620 with a ratio of 8.23. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.12, and the profit is - 942.40 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 17,150, LME price is 1,942 with a ratio of 8.80. Three - month price in China is 17,165, LME price is 1,992 with a ratio of 11.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67, and the profit is 251.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 1,860, - 1,780, - 1,750, and - 1,850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 567, 1,032, 1,505, and 1,979 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 200, - 190, - 175, and - 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 219, 345, 470, and 595 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 475, - 425, - 380, and - 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 346, 469, and 592 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 115, - 120, - 120, and - 135 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 380, - 110, 20, and 260 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 890, and the theoretical spread is 6,436 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Shanghai)**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.95, 4.18, 5.31, 0.95, 1.27, and 0.74 respectively [5] - **LME**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.72, 4.02, 5.81, 0.92, 1.44, and 0.64 respectively [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 785 and - 1,075 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 278 and 516 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 80 and - 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 75 and 210 (also 150 and 212 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 135 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 115 and 229 [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder price is 780 with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -14; PB powder price is 783, daily change 0, weekly change -14; Mac powder price is 773, daily change 0, weekly change -13; Jinbuba powder price is 736, daily change 0, weekly change -14; Mixed powder price is 721, daily change -6, weekly change -15; Super special powder price is 668, daily change 0, weekly change -22; Roy Hill powder price is 770, daily change 0, weekly change -14 [1] - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Bahun price is 814, daily change 0, weekly change -14; Bacu IOC6 price is 753, daily change 0, weekly change -21; Bacu SSFG price is 758, daily change 0, weekly change -21 [1] - **Other ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 863, daily change -2, weekly change -25; 61% Indian powder price is 725, daily change 0, weekly change -14; Karara concentrate price is 865, daily change 0, weekly change -23; KUMBA powder price is 842, daily change 0, weekly change -14; 57% Indian powder price is 603, daily change 0, weekly change -22; Atlas powder price is 716, daily change -6, weekly change -15; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 983, daily change -13, weekly change -30 [1] b. Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 price is 780.0, daily change 1.5, weekly change -20.5; i2605 price is 757.5, daily change -3.0, weekly change -18.0; i2609 price is 733.5, daily change -3.5, weekly change -18.0 [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 price is 102.06, daily change -1.33, weekly change -1.51; FE05 price is 99.58, daily change -1.15, weekly change -1.48; FE09 price is 97.40, daily change -1.10, weekly change -1.48 [1]

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 2025/12/8 2025/12/9 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 | 2025/12/8 | | 2025/12/9 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 | 1061.0 | 1044.0 | 1044.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1145.0 | 1112.0 | 1076.0 | -69.0 | -36.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1044.0 | 1019.0 | 1010.0 | -34.0 | -9.0 | FG01合约 | 1034.0 | 1002.0 | 984.0 | -50.0 | -18.0 | | 5mm大板 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load rises slightly, inventory remains stable, and basis is stable. In the future, the terminal weakening accelerates, polyester load may reach a turning point, TA inventory may gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term pay attention to buying on dips due to good PX pattern [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - exist, overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates. After the EG price drops again, coal - based losses intensify, and the supply reduction has not reversed the inventory accumulation trend. Short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term device runs stably, inventory decreases. Demand from the polyester yarn end remains stable, and short - fiber exports maintain high growth. Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long run as downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Category PTA - **Price and Margin Data**: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, crude oil price decreased from 62.7 to 61.9, PTA internal - market spot price remained at 4650, PTA processing margin increased from 143 to 162 and then decreased back to 125, and polyester gross margin increased from 30 to 50. The basis was - 35 at the beginning and - 28 at the end, and the sales - to - production ratio increased from 0.40 to 0.60 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term TA device runs stably with the same start - up rate, polyester load rises slightly, inventory remains stable, basis is stable, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic start - up rate is stable, overseas devices are stable, PXN strengthens, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improve, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Data**: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 745, MEG internal - market price decreased from 3840 to 3699, and MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 531 to - 592. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 775 to - 987 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - exist, start - up rate decreases slightly, overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, the basis weakens, and coal - based benefits weaken again [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Data**: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6425 to 6355, and the short - fiber profit increased from 102 to 148 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - term device runs stably with a start - up rate of 97.5%, sales - to - production ratio is basically stable, and inventory decreases. The polyester yarn end start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished - product inventory accumulates, and the benefits remain [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price decreased from 1805 to 1800, the Shanghai whole - latex price decreased from 14510 to 14390, and the RU main contract price decreased from 15210 to 14985 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Data**: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained at 745, pure benzene (CFR China) price increased from 672 to 686, and styrene (CFR China) price decreased from 838 to 828. Styrene domestic profit decreased from - 27 to - 1411 [2][5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 10, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12): Price on 12/9 was 10,450, down 65 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week [4] - 持仓量: On 12/9, it was 76,409, up 48,955 from the previous day and 37,423 from the previous week [4] - 成交量: In Germany, on 12/9, it was 111,045, up 48,226 from the previous day and down 11,618 from the previous week [4] - 仓単数量: On 12/9, it was 17,320, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,870 from the previous week [4] - 虚实比: On 12/9, it was 22.06, up 14 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] Basis and Spread - 顺丁基差: On 12/9, it was 50, with a daily change not provided and up 125 from the previous week [4] - 丁本县差: On 12/9, it was 520, up 115 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01: On 12/9, it was 20, up 10 from the previous day and 85 from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02: On 12/9, it was -20, down 5 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR: On 12/9, it was 4,535, down 15 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR: On 12/9, it was 1,630, up 80 from the previous day and 120 from the previous week [4] Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,500, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 传化市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: On 12/9, it was 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东北亚: On 12/9, it was 1,325, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东南亚: On 12/9, it was 1,600, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - 现货加工利润: On 12/9, it was 702, down 51 from the previous day and 179 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was -579, down 190 from the previous day and 199 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was 1,522, up 167 from the previous day and 176 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,250, down 50 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week [4] - 江苏市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4] - 扬子出厂价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4] - CFR中国: On 12/9, it was 860, unchanged from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week [4] Profit - 乙烯裂解利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 碳四抽提利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: On 12/9, it was -1,614, down 50 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was 186, down 44 from the previous day and 369 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was -975, up 39 from the previous day and 396 from the previous week [4] Production Profit - 丁苯生产利润: On 12/9, it was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 88 from the previous week [4] - ABS生产利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - SBS生产利润: On 12/9, it was -420, unchanged from the previous day and down 85 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources include Mysteel and Wind [8]

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 780.0 -9.0 -32.0 -43.0 -35.0 25省终端可用天数 23.5 -0.5 3.5 2.6 5.9 秦皇岛5000 679.0 -10.0 -33.0 -52.0 -41.0 25省终端供煤 551.5 2.0 -57.1 -88.6 -71.4 广州港5500 850.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2757.0 22.0 141.0 503.0 169.2 鄂尔多斯5500 525.0 -10.0 -40.0 -50.0 -85.0 北方锚地船舶 76.0 3.0 8.0 -36.0 38.0 大同5500 580.0 -10.0 -35.0 -45.0 -90.0 北方港调入量 161.0 -2.8 -19.3 6.9 -6.1 榆林6000 732.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 -80.0 北方港吞吐量 134.9 -26.6 -25.6 -25.1 -40.9 ...

棉花棉纱 棉花 棉纱 日期 3128 进口M级美棉 CotlookA(F E) 进口利润 仓单+预报 越南纱 现货 越南纱进口利 润 32S纺纱利润 2025/12/03 14570 73.8 74.8 1542 4889 2.53 21000 472 -298 2025/12/04 14585 73.8 74.7 1569 5385 2.53 21020 487 -294 2025/12/05 14580 73.5 74.2 1647 5490 2.53 21020 488 -289 2025/12/08 14580 - - - 5757 2.53 21020 491 -289 2025/12/09 14570 - - - 6070 - 21020 - -278 变化 -10 - - - 313 - 0 - 11 【行情分析】： 棉花：新棉收购基本完成，总产量预估较此前有所下调。中美釜山会谈结果较好，再次互相降低关税，利好我国纺服出口，整体外部氛围较4月 有好转，因此估值方面也难回到4月低点，适合长期做多。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/10 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | ...