1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports may lead to short - term adjustment risks for copper prices, and the US copper inventory may increase while non - US regions gradually become more relaxed. The end of the US restocking process is expected, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [10]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year because the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite [12]. - The tight supply at the mine end continues. The processing fees for copper concentrates remain at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. Although the production of refined copper has increased slightly, demand is still weak, and inventory has accumulated [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1. The initial jobless claims in the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, but the continuing claims are still at the highest level since the end of 2021 [5]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year, as the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite. The non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [5]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. The estimated output of electrolytic copper has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Some dovish Fed officials have spoken out, boosting market risk appetite. The domestic social copper inventory accumulation is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low level [8]. Bearish Factors - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports will be implemented on August 1. The short - term copper price has adjustment risks, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [9][10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a 17.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.61% year - on - year increase. The supplies from Chile and Peru have both declined, and the supply tension is difficult to ease [13]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices [17]. - In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a 2.93% month - on - month increase and a 16.33% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the output in the second quarter will reach 3.3913 million tons, a 16.13% increase from the second quarter of 2024 [19]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.53% year - on - year decrease. The supplies from Thailand, Japan, and the US have all declined [22]. - **Demand - side Data** - As of July 10, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1015 yuan per ton, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [26]. - In June, the domestic refined copper rod output was 811,300 tons, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 7.47% year - on - year increase. The output of recycled copper rods was 215,500 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase [30]. - In June, the domestic copper plate and strip output was 202,800 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month decrease, lower than the same period last year [34]. - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a 7.4% month - on - month increase and a 22.2% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Inventory and Price Difference Data** - LME copper inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk of a short squeeze has decreased. The copper inventory in SHFE and COMEX has increased, and the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has also increased [42]. - On July 4, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper turned into a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot also changed from a large premium to a discount [46]. 3.4后市研判 - With the upcoming implementation of tariffs, the short - term adjustment risk continues. Attention should be paid to the support at the 77,000 integer level [49].

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-7-11 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary Market Focus - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. - Russia stated its willingness to support further production increases. - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. [7] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, for the week ending June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels, compared to a decrease of 995,000 barrels in the previous week. - US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 797,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 11.473 million barrels. - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending June 20 were 237,000 barrels, compared to 230,000 barrels in the previous week. [7] Main View - This week, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, causing the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil to decline rapidly. The conflict did not cause substantial losses to the crude oil supply, and oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, as geopolitical tensions ease, the market focus shifts to the fundamentals of crude oil. There is an expectation of increased supply, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. The impact of further production increase on oil prices may be weaker than previous rounds. - On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in crude oil consumption. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of geopolitics, short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations. - Overall, after the decline of the geopolitical risk premium, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver. It is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [8] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on the range of $62 - $67 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices. [9] Multi - Empty Focus Multi - Party Factors - Expectation of demand improvement - Uncertainty of geopolitics [12] Empty - Party Factors - Expectation of OPEC+ production increase - Uncertainty of tariff policies [12] Macro Analysis Ceasefire Agreement and US - Iran Talks - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement on June 24. - Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week and may sign an agreement, also hinting at possible relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil. - At the beginning of the conflict, concerns about supply disruptions pushed up oil prices, but the actual impact on supply was limited. The current ceasefire agreement is fragile, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran talks. [13] Tariff Policy Uncertainty - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. - The prospects of Japan - US tariff negotiations are unclear. - With the "tariff deadline" on July 9 approaching, tariff policies still have great uncertainty. [16] Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut in July. - There are significant differences within the Fed on how to balance inflation and economic growth. - Powell said that tariffs will affect the economy, and the market's expectation of a rate cut has increased. The probability of a July rate cut has risen to 40%, and the expected total rate - cut amplitude for the remaining four meetings this year has increased from 45 basis points to 60 basis points. [19] OPEC and IEA Reports - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 and economic growth forecasts. - IEA expected sufficient oil supply in 2025, lowered demand growth expectations, and raised supply growth expectations. Overall, there is an expectation of oil supply surplus. [20] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 66,000 barrels per day in April 2025 compared to the previous month. Production declines were mainly from Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela. With the implementation of the production increase plan, OPEC production is expected to gradually recover. [21] - US domestic crude oil production increased slightly by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day in the week ending June 20. However, due to the decline in oil prices and profit pressure, the increase in shale oil production may be limited. [23] - The total number of US oil rigs was 438 in the week ending June 20, a decrease of 1 from the previous period. The decline rate has slowed down, and it is expected to stabilize with the recovery of oil prices. [25] Demand - US crude oil production - derived demand decreased by 361,000 barrels per day in the week ending June 20, while gasoline demand increased by 350,000 barrels per day. - The US refinery utilization rate increased to 94.7% in the week ending June 20, and it is expected to remain stable. - The refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries increased to 80.32% in May, and it is expected to continue to rise steadily. - As of June 26, the operating rate of domestic main refineries in China increased to 80.74%, and that of local independent refineries was 57.24%. Main refineries are expected to continue to increase their operating rates, while local refineries may reduce their operating rates due to profit considerations. - As of June 27, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic main refineries was 1,344.45 yuan per ton, and that of local independent refineries was 376.96 yuan per ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of main refineries. [31][32][34][40][45] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased. It is expected that inventories will continue to decline. - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 464,000 barrels in the week ending June 20, and gasoline inventories decreased by 2.07 million barrels as of June 6. [49][53] Crack Spread - As of June 25, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.04 per barrel, showing a slight decline but ending the previous downward trend, indicating an improvement in gasoline consumption. [54] 后市研判 - This week, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil declined rapidly. Oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the market focus shifts to fundamentals. Supply is expected to increase, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. Demand is expected to improve marginally with the arrival of the peak season. - Short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations, and short - term oil prices may have two - way fluctuations in a single day. Overall, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver, and it is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures broke through the previous oscillation range and drove the entire black - series to run strongly. The external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and the central bank and other six departments issued policies to boost the stock market. The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July, improving the domestic macro - sentiment. There is an expected game around the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - In the spot market, the trading sentiment recovered this week. Under the pattern of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and inventory reduction of coking coal, the price got a short - term rebound drive. However, due to the expected accumulation of steel inventory, the demand for furnace materials is affected, and there is pressure on the upside of the rebound. The pressure around 860 should be noted. After the fourth round of price cut of coke was implemented, and the coking coal price was supported at a low level, the average loss per ton of coke for coking enterprises increased. As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies, with the expectation of further price cuts postponed [6]. - The coking coal supply is shrinking, and the overall inventory has decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Coking enterprises replenished raw materials, and coke inventory continued to decline. Steel mills replenished coking coal and reduced coke inventory. The overall coke production remained stable, and the molten iron production changed little, supporting the coke demand. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - As of June 24, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The non - housing project capital availability rate was 61.02%, up 0.05 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project capital availability rate was 49.59%, up 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5]. - On the 26th, safety inspections in the Guxian area of Linfen became stricter. There were no new coal mine shutdowns except for 2 mines that had shut down due to belt replacement. Affected by safety inspections, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The effective operating coal mines in Guxian had a total capacity of 690 million tons, with a daily raw coal output of only 13,700 tons [7]. - Recently, the purchasing sentiment in the Luliang coking coal market has improved, and the prices of some coking coal types have increased. The new orders of some coal mines in Lishi were about 100,000 tons, and there was a phenomenon of vehicles waiting for coal. Except for lean coal, the offline prices of high - sulfur main coking coal also increased, and the auction success rate improved [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Coking coal supply has shrunk, downstream has replenished inventory in the short term, and domestic policies encourage consumption [10]. - Bearish factors: Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply contraction**: The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 82.48%, a decrease of 2.01% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 738,200 tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from last week. The opening rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week, and the daily output was 501,450 tons, a decrease of 840,000 tons from last week. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and both imports and domestic production declined significantly [12]. - **Significant weekly reduction of coking coal inventory**: As of the week of June 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.6309 billion tons, a reduction of 360,600 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3187 billion tons, a reduction of 55,200 tons from last week; the port inventory was 2.8559 billion tons, a reduction of 177,200 tons from last week [14]. - **Coking enterprises replenish raw materials and coke inventory continues to decline**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.0898 billion tons, an increase of 131,900 tons. The available days of inventory were 9.43 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.1303 billion tons, a reduction of 25,500 tons [17]. - **Steel mills replenish coking coal and reduce coke inventory**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8121 billion tons, an increase of 65,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.39 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2775 billion tons, a reduction of 64,500 tons from the previous period, and the available days were 11.22 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [21]. - **Stable overall coke production**: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 645,100 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.46%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 474,300 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [25]. - **Little change in molten iron production, supporting coke demand**: As of the week of June 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0903 billion tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4229 billion tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The blast furnace opening rate was 83.82%, the same as last week [26]. - **The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed**: As of the week of June 27, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week. With the coking coal price running strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The futures market has stabilized and rebounded first, and the spot trading has been active and stabilized [30]. 3.4后市研判 - Recently, the external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and domestic policies improved the macro - sentiment. The spot market trading sentiment recovered this week. Coking coal has a short - term rebound drive, but there is pressure on the upside due to the expected steel inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 860 [32]. - As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies. The expectation of further price cuts is postponed. In the short term, the coke futures will fluctuate with the cost - side coking coal [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Report Summary - The rubber market rebounded this week due to improved macro - sentiment, but the rebound was limited by fundamental pressures. The raw material cost support weakened, and the downstream tire demand was expected to be weak. The price was supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement, and future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.802 million, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.329 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.797 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The auto consumption index in May 2025 was 81.6, slightly higher than the previous month, and the market in June was expected to be basically flat or slightly increase compared with May [7]. - The weekly rainfall in the world's main natural rubber producing areas decreased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas in the next two weeks would also decrease, reducing the impact on rubber tapping [7]. - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [7][10]. - The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.5%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 0.8% [7]. Negative Factors - The price of natural rubber raw materials weakened [7]. - The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly [7]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, was weakly stable [7]. - Butadiene rubber traders reduced their inventory slightly, while factories showed a trend of inventory accumulation [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of tires declined [7]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weak [10]. - The expectation of rubber tapping recovery weakened the support of natural rubber raw materials [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of June 5, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - lump price was 44.7 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price in Yunnan, China was 12,700 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials at home and abroad decreased compared with the previous week, and the cost support of rubber weakened [12]. Qingdao Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 86,887 tons, a decrease of 3,607 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 522,778 tons, a decrease of 1,312 tons. The downstream restocked before the Dragon Boat Festival, driving a slight reduction in inventory [13]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly and then stabilized. The demand side dragged down the market, but some device overhauls and limited imports supported the market. As of June 5, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank price in the main ports of East China was about 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 934.2857 yuan/ton, and the price decline increased the loss of production enterprises [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of June 6, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5,800 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from the previous week. The downstream restocking enthusiasm was not high [17]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival, the capacity utilization rate decreased. The replacement demand for all - steel tires may increase with rising temperatures, but the space was limited due to low freight prices. The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved compared with last year, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult [19]. Contract Spread - As of June 5, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract showed a convergence trend, and the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract fluctuated within a range [21]. Market Outlook - The future tire demand is expected to be weak, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is difficult to reach the high level of the same period last year. The cost support of raw materials has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has been improved by the call between Chinese and US leaders. Overall, the downstream demand is weaker than last year, limiting the upside of prices. The raw material support has weakened in the short term, but the prices are supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement. Future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough, while the lead price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be focused on the price trend of waste batteries [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Abstract - The US ADP employment increase in a certain month was 1.37 million, lower than the expected 1.5 million and the previous value of 2.625 million, reaching the lowest level in years. The market focused on this data [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI in a certain month was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. It was the first time to fall below the critical point in a certain period [4]. - The European Central Bank mentioned continued small - scale interest rate cuts, and countries would increase investment in national defense and infrastructure, providing support on a broader macro - level [4]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group announced the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. - The supply of zinc raw materials remained loose, and the zinc ingot output might have a large - scale increase. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the low inventory supported the zinc price [4]. - The supply of recycled lead was unstable, and the inventory of lead ingots in the national market increased. The consumption of waste batteries was weak, and the lead price was expected to remain volatile [4]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Zinc) - Bullish factors: The output of domestic and foreign zinc mines may accelerate in June, and the zinc ingot output ratio may have a large - scale increase, and the social inventory has decreased [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumption end is weak [7]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Lead) - Bullish factors: The supply of recycled lead is still unstable [10]. - Bearish factors: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises is high, the price of waste batteries is running weakly, and the off - season consumption has not improved significantly [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc - Related Data - In April, China's zinc ore concentrate imports were 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The supply from major countries increased, and Australia became the top supplier [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton. The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees [15]. - The price of zinc concentrate slightly increased. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. - In April, China's refined zinc output was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from March, with a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.333 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9%. Due to the increase in zinc ore processing fees, the smelter's production profit was repaired [23]. - In April, refined zinc imports were 28,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. From January to April, the cumulative imports were 129,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.44% [26]. - Policies such as the new energy vehicle countryside campaign and urban renewal were introduced, which may have an impact on the consumption of zinc in related industries [30]. - As of June 5, the LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, down 1.44% from the previous week. The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4% to 42,310 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the zinc ingot inventory in the national main markets was 58,300 tons, down 900 tons from June 3 [33]. 3.3.2 Lead - Related Data - This week, the lead futures and spot prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the premium range narrowed. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming decreased by 257 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it decreased by 251 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the lead concentrate processing fees in different regions changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [42]. - In April 2025, the lead concentrate imports were 111,046 physical tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. As of 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate imports were about 448,700 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 41%. In April, the refined lead imports were 4,734 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65% [46]. - In April 2025, China's lead output was 664,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Both primary lead and recycled lead production decreased in April, but some enterprises resumed production in May [48]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased by 5.98 percentage points to 66.26%. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 10.94 percentage points to 62.91%, and the operating rate of lead batteries increased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.34% [51][53][57]. - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased after a large - scale increase, and the SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3.98% to 46,500 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 50,800 tons, up 3,900 tons from June 3 [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough; the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of waste batteries [64].