Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].

原油月报 ——宏观情绪缓和 静待OPEC+会议 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-04-30 04 后市研判 行情PA回RT顾01 宏观叠加基本面利空 原油价格大幅下跌 4月份原油价格在宏观层面叠加基本面利空的影响下，跌破前期低点并创2021年8月以来新低， 此后在宏观压力边际转弱及OPEC+扩大补偿减产规模的利好支撑下，原油价格企稳反弹，但是宏观 层面的利空并未实质消除，特朗普政策的关税政策对全球经济的冲击逐渐显现，全球主要经济体经 济数据环比走弱，同时，OPEC+产量政策转向及内部分歧的影响下，原油中长期供应宽松的格局难 以逆转，原油价格再次承压，存在二次探底的风险。 宏观PA分RT析02 关税压力缓和 不确定依旧存在 Ø 开启关税战。2025年4月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税"， 并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 Ø 暂缓对等关税执行。北京时间4月10日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在其Truth Social社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停征收"对等关税"，在90 天内对多数国家关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic asphalt market shows marginal improvements in supply and demand, but fundamental pressures remain. The supply continues to increase, with a 4% month - on - month increase in April production. The demand shows initial signs of recovery, with a 15.5% month - on - month increase in April asphalt shipments. The macro situation has short - term marginal improvements, but long - term uncertainties persist. The cost of asphalt is supported by the short - term crude oil market. Overall, the asphalt price is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to focus on the BU2506 contract in the range of 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton and choose to short on rebounds [71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In April, asphalt prices first declined and then rebounded, showing a significant overall decline. Affected by macro negatives and OPEC+ unexpected production increases during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the outer - market crude oil prices dropped sharply, causing asphalt to open at the daily limit down on the first trading day after the holiday and reach a new low for the year. In the middle and late April, as the macro - pessimistic sentiment eased and OPEC+ expanded compensatory production cuts, oil prices were supported, and asphalt prices rebounded and fluctuated widely [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Divergence in Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is likely to continue to pause interest - rate cuts due to high economic uncertainties and inflation risks. After the release of the March CPI data, traders increased bets on a 100 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed by the end of the year. However, Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech reduced market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June and cut rates 3 - 4 times by the end of 2025, with a cumulative cut of 75 - 100 basis points. The difference in expectations between the market and the Fed may lead to increased volatility in risk assets [9][10]. 3.2.2 Tariff Pressures - In April, the Trump administration's tariff policies led to macro negatives and increased global economic uncertainties. The suspension of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 10 eased the pessimistic sentiment to some extent, but the uncertainty of tariff policies still impacts the market and investor confidence [11]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Actions - In April, eight OPEC+ members announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in May. At the same time, an updated compensatory production - cut plan was announced, with an increase of 369,000 barrels per day in the cumulative production - cut scale. However, due to Kazakhstan's production policies and potential issues with production - cut implementation efficiency, the actual effect of the compensatory production cuts remains to be seen [15]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - As of April 25, the cumulative asphalt production in April was 1.752 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. The refinery operating rate has rebounded, and the supply is under pressure. As of April 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, up 2 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in Shandong, Central, and North China regions [16][24]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of April 25, the asphalt shipments in April were 1.371 million tons, a 15.5% month - on - month increase. The demand is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is lower than the supply growth rate. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative investment in domestic transportation fixed assets increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity has rebounded, which is expected to support asphalt demand [25][32][33]. 3.3.3 Import and Export - In March, domestic asphalt imports were 264,000 tons, a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease. The average import price decreased. Exports were 62,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the average export price also decreased [42][45]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of April 25, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises decreased by 15,000 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increased by 28,000 tons week - on - week to 4.211 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.01% [55][62]. 3.3.5 Price Spread - As of April 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 619.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 157.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio rebounded to 55.76 as of April 28. There is a risk of further decline in processing dilution profit [69].

汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-04-25 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 焦煤焦炭周度报告 | 报告摘要 | PART 01 1. | 美方高级官员透露，特朗普政府正考虑多种方案。第一种方案，对中国商品征收的关税税率可能降至大约50%-65%。第 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 二种方案则被称为"分级方案"，美方将把进口自中国的商品分为所谓"对美国国家安全不构成威胁"和所谓"对美国 | | | | 国家利益具有战略意义"的商品。 | | | 2. | 国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的4月《世界经济展望报告》显著调降全球经济增速，并警告贸易紧张局势的迅速升级和 | | | | 极高的政策不确定性预计将对全球经济活动产生重大影响。IMF基于截至4月4日公布的关税措施的参考预测，全球经济 | | 市场焦点 | | 增长率将在2025年降至2.8%，在2026年降至3%，显著低于今年1月预测的两年均为3.3%。 | | | 3. | 中共中央政治局会议：用好更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，适时降 ...

锡周报报告 多空焦点 PART 02 | 利 多 因 素 | 利 空 因 素 | | --- | --- | | 一 国 内 消 费 有 定 韧 性 | 锡 矿 供 应 有 回 升 预 期 | | 美 元 指 数 处 于 低 位 | 国 内 库 存 处 于 高 位 | | 市 场 情 绪 有 所 好 转 | | | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

沥青周度报告 中航期货 2025-04-25 05 后市研判 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表了演讲，其"鹰派"讲话降低市场降息预期。 （2）沥青自身基本驱动较弱，社会库存持续累库，需求有待进一步改善。 （3）欧佩克收到八个国家更新后的补偿性减产计划，日均减产石油30.5万桶/日直至2026年6月。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）截止4月23日，国内沥青样本企业开工率30.7%，较上一统计周期上涨2个百分点。 （2）截止4月25日，国内沥青周度产量52.5万吨，环比上周增加3.3万吨，增幅6.2%。 （3）截止4月25日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存90.2万吨，当周环比减少1.5万吨。 （4）截止4月25日，国内沥青社会库存421.1万吨，当周环比增加2.8万吨，增幅2.01%。 主要观点 本周国内沥青市场呈现供需边际改善特征，但基本面压力尚未根本缓解。供应端维持增量态势，周度产量环比增 加6.2%，需求端初现回暖迹象，周度出货量环比增长20.4%，其中贸易商在价格洼地效应下补库积极性提升，推动厂 库库存环比下 ...

铅锌产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-4-25 | 目 | 录 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 0 1 1 | 报 报 | 告 告 | 摘 摘 | 要 要 | | 0 0 2 2 | 多 多 | 空 空 | 焦 焦 | 点 点 | | 0 0 3 3 | 数 数 | 据 据 | 分 分 | 析 析 | | 4 4 0 0 | 后 后 | 市 市 | 研 研 | 判 判 | | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

橡胶周度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-04-25 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 主要观点 自4月2日特朗普宣布对等关税将于4月9日实施以及当时中方的"强硬对等反制"使得市场的恐慌情绪升至高位，市场遭受 恐慌式抛售后，随着美对其余国家实施"90天"缓冲期，关税力度再度扩大的可能性不大，橡胶盘面开启了为期3周的横 盘震荡整理。目前虽中美存关税缓和预期，但未有实质性进展，不确定性仍存。经济组织下调经济增长预期，宏观面仍旧 偏弱。周五中央政治局会议未出现超预期的政策指引，资金表现谨慎，冲高后回落。橡胶原料端与需求端均表现偏弱，微 观弱势易放大宏观压力。临近五一长假，市场不确定增加，增量资金驱动较为谨慎，节前预计震荡为主。 基本面概况 市场焦点 数据分析 PART 03 青岛地区橡胶小幅去库 ➢ 据钢联数据统计，截至4月18日当周，青岛保税区的现货库存为80588吨，去库997吨；一般贸易现货库存为531895吨， 去库5700吨。临近五一，下游存部分备货需求，带动青岛地区小幅去库。 1. 国 ...

螺矿产业链周度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-04-25 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 | 市场焦点 | （1）美国总统特朗普当地时间周二（4月22日）在公开场合发表了讲话，他承认美国目前对自中国进口商品的关税过高，预计税 | | --- | --- | | | 率将大幅降低。白宫称中美贸易协议谈判取得进展，外交部回应：如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应当停止威胁讹诈， | | | 在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方进行对话。 | | | （2）美国总统特朗普称美联储应该降低利率，且他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。此外，特朗普还表示，希望美联储主席鲍威尔 | | | 在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动。 | | | （3）1.3万亿超长期特别国债今年首期即将发行。根据财政部最新安排，2025年超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债将 | | | 于4月24日同日开启发行。 | | | （1）IMF基于截至4月4日公布的关税措施的参考预测，全球经济增长率将在2025年降至2.8%，在202 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-4-25 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...