Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish [3] - Iron Ore: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [9] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking Coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Bullish [18] Core Views - The steel market is driven by factors such as government policies on capacity reduction and raw material price increases, and is expected to continue its strong performance. The iron ore market has seen an increase in iron - making water production and supply, but due to rapid price increases, short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. The coke market has a rising expectation of price hikes and a warm market atmosphere. The coking coal market has improved supply and demand conditions and positive market sentiment. The ferroalloy market is mainly driven by market sentiment, with medium - term supply expected to return to a loose state [4][8][12][16][20]. Summary by Variety Steel 1. Rebar - **View**: Driven by government capacity - reduction policies and raw material price increases, although it is in the off - season with declining production and demand and rising inventory, it is expected to run strongly due to increased iron - making water production and positive market sentiment. Price range: [3200, 3250] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3277, 3293, and 3224 respectively, with increases of 86, 86, and 77. Spot prices in different regions range from 3060 to 3450, with price increases of 30 - 80 [2] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as macro - policies and raw material price increases. Price range: [3370, 3420] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3410, 3413, and 3394 respectively, with increases of 90, 86, and 84. Spot prices in different regions range from 3340 to 3520, with price increases of 70 - 90 [2] Iron Ore - **View**: The production of iron - making water has increased significantly, and supply has also increased. The market has strengthened due to strong steel - mill profits, but rapid price increases have compressed profit margins, so short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. Price range: [790, 830] [1][8][9] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 777, 755, and 809 respectively, with increases of 24. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 675 to 815, with price increases of 5 - 25 [6] Coke - **View**: After the first round of spot price hikes, there is an expectation of further hikes. Market sentiment is positive due to factors such as production - restriction news and steel - mill restocking, and it is expected to run strongly. Price range: [1600, 1640] [1][12][13] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1654, 1699, and 1603 respectively, with increases of 85 - 101. Spot prices in different regions range from 1030 to 1340, with some prices remaining unchanged and some increasing by 70 [11] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic production has recovered, supply is expected to increase, upstream inventory has decreased, and market sentiment has improved. Driven by downstream restocking, it is expected to run strongly in the short term. Price range: [1000, 1040] [1][16][17] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1056, 1074.5, and 1006 respectively, with increases of 80 - 83.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 1008 to 1390, with price increases of 50 - 58 [15] Ferroalloys 1. Manganese Silicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. In the short term, it is mainly driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. Price range: [5820, 6010] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5964, 5988, and 5914 respectively, with increases of 110 - 138. Spot prices in different regions range from 5650 to 5700, with price increases of 30 - 50 [19] 2. Ferrosilicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. There is pressure from delivery inventory. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage. Price range: [5570, 5770] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5746, 5792, and 5668 respectively, with increases of 160 - 180. Spot prices in different regions range from 5330 to 5400, with price increases of 50 [19]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格延 | | | | 续收涨行情。短线反弹对待,前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。 | | | | 短期走势，在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间 | | | | 行情对待。主力【3040，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季行情进入下半程，油价震荡偏弱。欧盟推出新一轮对俄罗斯制裁措施， 对俄原油制裁上限降至 50 美元/桶左右；油价进入下半程，随着 OPEC+ | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供 | | | | 给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。 | | | | SC【505-520】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | 空单止盈 | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，绝对价格低估值支撑。基本面格局偏弱，华北标品现货价 格持续下跌，社会库存连续 3 周累库，近期装置重启增加，预计本周产 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 | CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格跟 | | | | 随大幅上涨。短线反弹对待,前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。 | | | | 短期走势，在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间 | | | | 行情对待。主力【3020，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | 7 | 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [3][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [8][9] - Coke: Bullish [10][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [14][17] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Sideways [18][21] Core Views of the Report - Multiple factors drive steel prices to continue rising, with rebar showing off-season characteristics and hot-rolled coil having a relatively stable fundamentals [4] - Iron ore prices are strong due to increased iron production, but rapid price increases compress profit margins, so chasing the rise is not advisable [8] - After the first round of coke price increases, there are expectations for further increases, and the market sentiment is positive [12] - Coking coal production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving, with downstream restocking boosting the market [16] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, and prices may face pressure in the medium term [20][21] Summary by Variety Steel - **Rebar** - **View**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced capacity reduction in the steel industry, and the sharp rise in raw materials drives up steel prices. Rebar production and apparent demand continue to decline month-on-month, and total inventory rises slightly, showing off-season characteristics [4] - **Operation**: Iron production increases significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials. The market sentiment is strong, and it may continue to run strongly, with a price range of [3170, 3220] [1] - **Hot-rolled coil** - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, and the fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions [4] - **Operation**: The market trades around factors such as macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw materials also promotes the strong performance of steel, and it may maintain a strong operation in the short term, with a price range of [3350, 3400] [1] Iron Ore - **View**: Iron production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both increase, and inventories at ports and steel mills accumulate. Steel mills have good profits and strong production enthusiasm, driving up the price of iron ore. However, the rapid price increase compresses the profit margin on the futures market [8] - **Operation**: Short-term observation is recommended, and medium-term short positions can be considered, with a price range of [780, 820] [1][9] Coke - **View**: After the first round of price increases, there are expectations for further increases. Market rumors of production restrictions affect sentiment, and steel mill restocking makes the market more positive [12] - **Operation**: It may maintain a strong operation, with a price range of [1520, 1570] [1][13] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching the level of the same period last year. Some coal mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot transactions have improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking boosts the market [16] - **Operation**: It may continue to run strongly in the short term, with a price range of [930, 970] [1][17] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Silicomanganese** - **View**: The fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Although iron production is high, the significant month-on-month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for silicomanganese. The slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost [20] - **Operation**: In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the increase is relatively limited compared to other black commodities. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton, with a price range of [5710, 5900] [1][21] - **Ferrosilicon** - **View**: The fundamentals also show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and there is obvious near-term warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter-month reverse arbitrage [20] - **Operation**: In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still face pressure, with a price range of [5410, 5605] [1][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to dovish remarks from Fed officials, threats to the Fed's independence, a medium - term weakening trend of the US dollar, loose policies in many countries, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Silver is likely to have a strong - level range as there is a supply gap, economic demand is supported, and it is affected by the prices of base metals and gold. Copper is expected to oscillate, with a short - term rebound and long - term optimism. Zinc will have a short - term rebound and long - term supply - demand imbalance. Lead is under pressure due to increased supply and insufficient consumption. Tin's short - term rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and seasonal consumption decline. Aluminum's rebound is under pressure with high production capacity and weak terminal demand. Nickel may have a short - term rebound but faces long - term challenges. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in high - level ranges. Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Despite positive US data, gold and silver maintained a high - level range due to dovish Fed statements and ongoing tariff negotiations [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The risk of a US economic recession has decreased, with better - than - expected initial jobless claims and retail sales data. There are potential changes in the Fed's leadership, and geopolitical issues such as the Iran - nuclear deal remain uncertain. The long - term bullish trend for gold is supported by tariff uncertainties, global order reshaping, and loose fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is advisable [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists, and electrolytic copper production has increased significantly. There are concerns about copper inventory flowing back to the Asian market, but downstream开工 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors is resilient [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, copper has rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips. In the long term, due to the tight global copper ore supply, a bullish view on copper is maintained. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,800, 79,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,600, 9,800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc continued to rebound and traded in a range [7]. - **Industry Logic**: The zinc ore supply is expected to be abundant in 2025, and smelters are actively resuming production. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the galvanizing enterprise开工 rate is lower than usual due to weak steel demand [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc will continue to rebound due to improved macro and sector sentiment. In the long term, given the supply - demand imbalance, it is advisable to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,680, 2,780] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [9]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro uncertainties remain. Production capacity is high, inventory has increased, and downstream开工 has declined. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and there are short - term supply shortages due to some enterprise maintenance. The supply - demand structure is expected to be loose in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties remain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved slightly, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, the production cut has weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared during the off - season [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000, 122,000] yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and price, then pulled back [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply - side disruptions such as mine closures have led to a strong rally in the main contract, pricing in improved supply - demand conditions. However, total inventory has reached a new high. Although import pressure has eased, domestic production remains high. Terminal demand in the new - energy vehicle market has slowed, but the energy - storage market has some growth [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, with a trading range of [66,500, 67,500] yuan/ton [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][10][12][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Range-bound [1][18][20][21] Core Views of the Report - The steel market continues to be driven by production cut news and significant increases in raw material prices, with rebar showing seasonal weakness in production and demand but still expected to run strongly due to increased hot metal production and positive market sentiment; hot-rolled coil has relatively stable fundamentals and may maintain a strong trend in the short term due to macro policies and raw material price increases [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has seen a significant increase in hot metal production, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins, so it is not advisable to chase the rise, and short-term observation is recommended while considering short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - The coke market has seen the first round of spot price increases implemented, with expectations of further increases. Market sentiment is affected by production cut news, and steel mill restocking has made the market more positive, so it may maintain a strong trend [1][12][13] - The coking coal market has seen a recent increase in domestic production, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased, spot trading has improved, and downstream restocking has boosted the market, so it may continue to run strongly in the short term [1][16][17] - The ferroalloy market has limited supply-demand contradictions. The ferromanganese market has increasing supply and decreasing demand, with cost support from manganese ore but potential cost weakening. The ferrosilicon market has both supply and demand decreasing, with lower production area electricity prices and high factory inventories, so it is expected to trade within a range [1][20][21] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market situation**: There are still occasional production cut news, and significant increases in raw material prices drive the steel price up. Production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, total inventory has increased slightly, showing obvious seasonal weakness. Hot metal production has increased significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3150, 3190] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions. The market is trading around macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production cut policies, and raw material price increases have also pushed up the steel price [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3320, 3360] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend in the short term [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. Ports and steel mills have both seen inventory accumulation. Steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and locking in profits on the futures market has driven up the iron ore price. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins [1][8] - **Price range**: [785, 815] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term observation, consider short positions in the medium term [1][9] Coke - **Market situation**: The first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations of further increases. There is a lot of production cut news in the market, which affects market sentiment. Steel mill restocking after the rapid price increase has made the market more positive [1][12] - **Price range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend [1][13] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production has recently increased, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking has boosted the market [1][16] - **Price range**: [920, 950] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly in the short term [1][17] Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost weakening due to lower electricity costs in multiple production areas and slightly lower long-term quotes from some mines. Hot metal production is at a high level, providing rigid support for ferromanganese demand [1][20] - **Price range**: [5700, 5890] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark [1][21] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Production area electricity prices have decreased, further lowering the cost line. Factory inventories are still relatively high, some factories plan to resume production, and the downstream consumption off-season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de-stocking [1][20] - **Price range**: [5390, 5575] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and the market is expected to trade within a range [1][21]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大区间震荡 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。7 月美农报告调增新年 | | 豆粕 | | 度美豆期末库存，偏利空。美豆下跌。昨日美豆种植报告显示种植情况环比改善。 | | | | 昨日豆粕小幅收跌。在缺乏基本面利多驱动下，价格出现整理。短期走势，在基本 | | | | 面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主力【2970， | | | | 3040】 | | | 大区间震荡 | 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，部分地区土壤墒情偏干。新季全球菜籽产量有所恢 | | | | 复，但加籽种植面积同比下降，同比增幅受限，关注后续天气及单产情况。国内市 | | | | 场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...