Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel and Iron Products**: Cautiously bearish on rebar and hot-rolled coil; short-term participation for iron ore [1] - **Coking Products**: Cautiously bullish on coke and coking coal [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish on ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: Production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, inventory decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level, and the fundamental balance is weak. Short-term range-bound fluctuations are expected [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Apparent demand and production increased month-on-month, inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in recent years. Short-term range fluctuations are likely [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand weakened month-on-month, but high hot metal production provides continuous support. Short-term participation is recommended [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved significantly, and the market expectation of price cuts increased. Short-term market sentiment has been released, and the market may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [1][10][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month, and the number of shut-down mines in the main production areas increased. The short-term supply is expected to remain low. The market decline sentiment has been released, and the price is approaching the lower limit of the range. Short positions should stop losses and exit, and new positions should wait and see [1][13][14][15] - **Ferromanganese**: The price of port ore is relatively firm, the supply in the production area continues to decline, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains at the highest level in the same period. Downstream steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][17][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The industry is mostly in a loss state but has not yet started large-scale production cuts. Demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on-demand procurement, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. After the release of phased replenishment demand, the difficulty of inventory reduction increases. Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][17][18][19] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Production and Demand**: Production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, and inventory decreased month-on-month, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - **Market Situation**: Fundamental balance is weak, and short-term range-bound fluctuations are expected [1][5] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., rebar 01 at 3106 with a rise of 17), spot prices (e.g., rebar in Shanghai at 3250 with a rise of 10), and relevant basis and spreads are provided [2] Hot-rolled Coil - **Production and Demand**: Apparent demand and production increased month-on-month, and inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in recent years [1][4] - **Market Situation**: Short-term range fluctuations are likely [1][5] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., hot-rolled coil 01 at 3309 with a rise of 14), spot prices (e.g., hot-rolled coil in Shanghai at 3300 with a rise of 10), and relevant basis and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand weakened month-on-month, with increased overseas ore shipments and reduced arrivals. However, high hot metal production provides continuous support [1][6][7] - **Market Situation**: Short-term participation is recommended [1][8] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., iron ore 01 at 794), spot prices (e.g., Yangdi powder at 708), and relevant spreads, basis, and freight rates are provided [6] Coke - **Supply and Demand**: After four rounds of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved significantly, and the market expectation of price cuts increased. Iron ore production decreased slightly month-on-month but remains at a high level in the same period, and steel mills' replenishment enthusiasm decreased [1][10][11] - **Market Situation**: Short-term market sentiment has been released, and the market may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., coke 01 at 1619.0 with a fall of -24.0), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang quasi-first-class metallurgical coke at 1430), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [10] Coking Coal - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month, and the number of shut-down mines in the main production areas increased. Imported Mongolian coal transactions were light, and the online auction failure rate increased significantly. After the release of short-term phased demand, the replenishment willingness decreased, and the mine inventory increased month-on-month [1][13][14] - **Market Situation**: The market decline sentiment has been released, and the price is approaching the lower limit of the range. Short positions should stop losses and exit, and new positions should wait and see [1][14][15] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., coking coal 01 at 1084.5 with a fall of -1.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang main coking coal at 1530), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [13] Ferromanganese - **Supply and Demand**: The price of port ore is relatively firm, the supply in the production area continues to decline, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains at the highest level in the same period. Downstream steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong [1][17][18] - **Market Situation**: Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][18][19] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., ferromanganese 01 at 2630 with a fall of -6), spot prices (e.g., ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia at 5500 with a fall of -20), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [17] Ferrosilicon - **Supply and Demand**: The industry is mostly in a loss state but has not yet started large-scale production cuts. Demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on-demand procurement, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. After the release of phased replenishment demand, the difficulty of inventory reduction increases [1][17][18] - **Market Situation**: Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][18][19] - **Price Information**: Futures prices (e.g., ferrosilicon 01 at 5392 with a fall of -32), spot prices (e.g., ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia at 5200 with a fall of -30), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton (cautious bullish), Bean oil (short - term bullish), Rapeseed oil (short - term bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: Red dates (rebound under pressure), Live pigs (be wary of short - term rebound) [1] - **Neutral or Consolidating**: Soybean meal (short - term bullish consolidation), Rapeseed meal (short - term consolidation), Palm oil (weak consolidation), Soybean oil (short - term oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: South American planting progress is lower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. However, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate bullishly, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Coastal oil mills have zero inventory, zero crushing, and low imports of rapeseed, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. The spot market is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant expected change in the fundamentals. It showed a short - term consolidation trend [1]. - **Palm oil**: It is in a state of weak supply - demand in the short - term. November export data in Malaysia is weak, but the decline has slightly recovered. With the expected festival stocking demand in China and India in December and later, the price rebounded slightly after falling to a certain low. Considering the expected inventory build - up in Malaysia in November, the short - term rebound is temporary [1]. - **Soybean oil**: Domestic inventory has decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The issue of US soybean import costs due to tariffs remains unresolved. With the optimistic sentiment in US biodiesel and the slightly dry planting weather in Brazil during the consumption peak season, the adjustment space is limited, and opportunities to go long after adjustments can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. Port inventories have continued to decline month - on - month, with strong fundamentals. A bullish approach is recommended, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, weakening the supply - side narrative. The market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the cash flow of downstream textile enterprises has improved, and the firm yarn prices have driven a slight rebound in cotton prices. However, the upward movement is restricted by high inventories and hedging pressure. In the short - term, it may test the 13700 - 13800 level, and a light - position long - entry can be considered [1]. - **Red dates**: As new products are gradually launched and the consumption season arrives, the supply - demand will be strong in both aspects. In a loose pattern, a bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation on a large reduction in new - season red date production has been squeezed out, and the downward trend in the futures market has slowed down. Excessive short - selling is not recommended when the spot price decline is limited [1]. - **Live pigs**: In the short - term, the supply remains loose, and demand is gradually increasing. The futures price of near - month contracts has reached a new low and is close to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises. With high positions, excessive short - selling is not advisable. The reduction of the breeding sows in October may accelerate the supply adjustment, and short - term rebound risks should be vigilant [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 942.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 714.99 million tons, a 4.38% decrease from last week, and a 39.91% increase year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 115.15 million tons, a 15.97% increase from last week and a 49.47% increase year - on - year. The physical inventory of feed enterprises was 7.98 days, a 0.25 - day decrease from the previous period and the same as last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal spot prices were basically stable, and the market trading sentiment was relatively active in the past two weeks. Some feed enterprises were considering purchasing basis contracts for the first quarter of next year. Oil mill crushing volume remained high, and the inventory reduction was slow. The short - term supply was loose, and the spot basis was under pressure [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Market**: As of November 21, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the same as last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a 0.19 - million - ton decrease from last week; unexecuted contracts were 0.01 million tons, a 0.19 - million - ton decrease from last week. The global rapeseed production has recovered this year, and Canadian rapeseed harvesting is basically completed. The domestic spot market faces slow trading and strong inventory reduction pressure. Port inventory pressure is high year - on - year, and the substitution demand for rapeseed meal is difficult to be driven by the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference. The fundamentals are weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term [6]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 66.71 million tons, a 2.13% increase from last week and a 31.34% increase year - on - year. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and the output increased by 10.32% month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased by 18.84% (ITS data) or 16.43% (Amspec data) compared with the same period last month [9]. - **Market Trend**: The export data in November was weak, but the decline has slightly recovered compared with the first 20 days. With the expected festival stocking demand in China and India in December and later, the price rebounded slightly after falling to a certain low. In the context of the expected inventory build - up in November, the short - term rebound is temporary [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested (79% progress), and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected (40.2% progress). In late November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas increased, which was unfavorable for harvesting. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is between 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the MSP. In late November, rainfall in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main - producing areas have started sowing new cotton for 2026. It is expected that there will be heavy rainfall in the main - producing areas by the end of November [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 3.7 million tons, and the delivery is nearing completion. The new - cotton sales progress is growing rapidly, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost the same as the previous month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period last year. National commercial inventory increased to 328.24 million tons, higher than the same period last year. Xinjiang's commercial inventory increased to 231.15 million tons, and the inventory in inland provinces increased to 20.72 million tons. The finished - product inventory reduction is still differentiated. The demand in the downstream market has changed little, and the spring - summer orders for cotton cloth have slightly increased. The opening rates of spinning mills and cloth mills are basically the same as last month, and the export of textile and clothing in October was under pressure [12]. Red Dates - **Supply and Price**: Currently in the critical period of the new - old production season transition, the new - jujube harvest time is slightly earlier than the same period. The new - season red date output is expected to be between 500,000 - 600,000 tons, maintaining an oversupply pattern. The purchase prices in various regions have been stable recently [15]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 490 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4,415 tons. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and merchants are more interested in purchasing old jujubes with high cost - performance [15]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the overall slaughter progress of the group is about 65.67%, and there is still some pressure on the social side to hold back the slaughter. The price difference between standard and fat pigs has widened recently. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets in October increased by 105,300 to 5.7813 million. In the long - term, the number of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million in October. On the demand side, the downstream slaughter volume has increased, and cold - storage inventory is passively increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail catering consumption has slightly improved [17]. - **Market Trend**: The near - month futures price has reached a new low and is close to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises. With high positions, excessive short - selling is not advisable. The reduction of breeding sows may accelerate the supply adjustment, and short - term rebound risks should be vigilant [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, sell on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Silver has potential for growth with policy - driven demand. Copper is expected to see a rising price center. Zinc has short - term support but a bearish medium - long - term outlook. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum face challenges in price rebounds. Nickel shows a low - level rebound. Industrial silicon is range - bound. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market situation**: US economic data is volatile, consumption is weak, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is in deadlock, but gold has long - term support from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Strategies**: Long - term value - based positions should be held, with short - term attention on the support levels of 920 for domestic gold and 12000 for silver [3] Copper - **Market situation**: The price of copper shows an upward trend. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The market has high expectations for policy stimulus [5][6][7] - **Strategies**: Buy on dips. Short - term, focus on the range of 86500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11000 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market situation**: Domestic zinc enters the off - season, with exports increasing and inventory decreasing slightly. The supply and demand are weak in the short term, and there is a risk of supply increase and demand decrease in the long term [9] - **Strategies**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, waiting for more macro - guidance. Sell on rallies in the medium - long term. Focus on the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3000 - 3100 dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices face pressure in rebounding. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decrease, and domestic demand shows a structural differentiation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [11][13] - **Strategies**: Short - term short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. Focus on the range of 21000 - 21600 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebound. Indonesia plans to cut production, but global refined nickel inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel demand is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [15][17] - **Strategies**: Take profit on dips and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. Focus on the range of 116000 - 119000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 14 weeks, but the rate of decrease has slowed down. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt factories has increased, and terminal demand remains strong [19][21] - **Strategies**: Buy on dips, with the range of 94000 - 97500 yuan/ton [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比均上升，库存环比下降，杭州地区库存环比亦小幅下降，绝对水平 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 仍然较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比略降，钢厂主动减限产意愿较低。短期维持 区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量环比回升，库存小幅下降，仍为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢厂 | | ★ | | 减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅转降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有减量预期，关注其落地 | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 情况。钢厂、港口去库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱，但高铁水支 | | | | 撑下，矿价仍然坚挺。 | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润明显改善，市场提降预期增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比微 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 降但整体维持同期高位，钢厂补库积极性下降，短期焦企出货情况尚可，多数维持正常 | | ★★ | | 生产。市场情绪转弱，行情延续偏弱运行，观望为主。 | | | | 国内煤矿产量缓慢回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **MEG (Ethylene Glycol)**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Sideways at the bottom, consider long positions on dips for 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [5] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish consolidation [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a weakening oil price. Supply exceeds demand in the off - season, and there is pressure on the upside. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8] - **LPG**: The decline in the cost - end oil price weakens the LPG trend. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. Consider light - position short - selling [1] - **L**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PP**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Inventory is high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PVC**: The basis strengthens, and the price is in a bearish consolidation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline. Industries can hedge at high prices [1] - **PX/PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. Consider long positions on dips [3] - **MEG**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Methanol**: The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions and long positions on dips for the 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [5] - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, and the supply - demand balance is loose. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [5] - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions in the short term and going short on rebounds in the long term [5] - **Soda Ash**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Consider short positions on rebounds and short the 01 alkali - glass spread [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.51%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC up 0.40% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but supply exceeds demand, and inventory is accumulating. Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a price drop [8] - **Fundamentals**: In December, Iraq's exports will decline by 12%. OPEC forecasts demand growth in 2025 and 2026. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may suppress prices. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 25, the PG main contract closed at 4231 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is trending downward. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. The basis is high, and the price is over - estimated [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and there is room for price compression. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Market Review**: The L01 main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton, down 0.5% [16] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds, but supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient in the medium term [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6850] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 main contract closed at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [20] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamental situation is weak due to the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory is high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 main contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [23] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is repaired, and the short - term market returns to a weak fundamental situation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [25] PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long positions on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4675] [28] MEG - **Market Review**: The EG01 contract closed at 3901 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3810 - 3885] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract's position decreased slightly to 131.3 million lots, still at a high level in the past five years [34] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price stabilizes, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions at low valuations. Consider long positions on dips for the 05 contract [34] Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 24, the NG main contract closed at 4.672 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.50% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.344 - 4.603]. The demand side has support, but the supply side is sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 25, the BU main contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. There is room for price compression [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [3000 - 3100] [48] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG01 main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [50] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and go short on rebounds in the long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [52] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA01 main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [54] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Inventory is high [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebounds to go short in the long term and short the 01 alkali - glass spread. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [56]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美种种进度低于去年同期，且本周及未来十五天降雨展望低于正常水平。利多盘 | | 豆粕 | | 面。但国内目前大豆及豆粕库存供应偏高，好在现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | ★ | 短线偏多震荡 | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | | | 西种植升水，短线暂震荡偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气后续进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，现货降价去库。 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日冲高回落，短线整理行情。关注豆粕端带动以及 | | | | 中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日继续收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level range - bound [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level range - bound [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various metals including precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals. It assesses their market conditions based on macro - economic data, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market condition**: US data and Fed officials' statements support rate cuts, and the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is agreed upon, providing long - term support for gold. Silver has high elasticity and is favored by liquidity in 2025, with a significant increase of over 70% [1][2][3] - **Logic**: US economic data such as core PPI and retail sales support rate cuts; Fed officials advocate rate cuts; the Russia - Ukraine negotiation makes progress; in the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Strategy**: Long - term value allocation positions can be held, short - term trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 920 and silver at around 11500 [3] Copper - **Market condition**: The game between long and short is intense, with copper showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Overnight, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell [4][5] - **Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the TC of copper concentrates has declined. In October, China's imported copper concentrates increased year - on - year, but the production of electrolytic copper decreased. The global visible copper inventory is at a high level, with strong demand in the power and automotive sectors and weak demand in real estate and infrastructure [5] - **Strategy**: Do not chase high prices. Buy on dips during corrections. In the medium and long term, be bullish on copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [85500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market condition**: Zinc is under pressure and weak due to weak demand in the off - season [7] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has declined, and the profit of refined zinc enterprises is in deficit. In October, the production of refined zinc increased but was lower than expected. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [8] - **Strategy**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and weak. In the medium and long term, supply increases while demand decreases. Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market condition**: Aluminum prices face pressure during rebounds, and alumina shows a weak trend at a low level [10][11] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production and are expected to continue to cut production next March. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots is stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The demand shows a structural differentiation. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to increase, and the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [12] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term. Pay attention to the change direction of the social inventory of aluminum ingots, with the main operating range at [21000 - 21600] [13] Nickel - **Market condition**: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel shows a slight rebound [14][15] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and some smelters may cut production. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [16] - **Strategy**: Take profit on dips for nickel and stainless steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory changes of downstream stainless steel, with the main operating range of nickel at [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market condition**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and went high, with reduced positions and an increase of over 4% [18][19] - **Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, with upstream inventory further reduced and downstream inventory actively reduced to a reasonable range, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the terminal demand remains strong. However, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down [20] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the gap, and take profit on long positions in a timely manner within the range of [92800 - 97000] [21]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美降雨低于正常水平对种植存在干扰。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价心 | | 豆粕 | | 理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴西 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作。短线偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高。11 月 22 日新 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 沙港将有一船澳籽到港。实质影响有限。基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日跟随豆 | | ★ | | 粕收涨，逢低短多对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | 棕榈油 | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日回落收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | 短期震荡 | 问题，美生柴乐观情绪升温，叠加巴西 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | | | - | | P | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美联储降息概率上升至 80%，俄乌问题再生变数，美国日本推出财政大刺激，黄金 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 有支撑。建议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金、及其他有色品种波动，特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准。长期来看白银基 | | | 长线持有 | 本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关 | | ★ | 注 | 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储鸽派官员密集发声，12 月降息概率走高，特朗普启动创世纪计划提振 AI，市 | | 铜 ★ | 长线持有 | 场情绪好转。消费淡季供需双弱，海外铜库存增加压制铜上方空间，短期铜高位整 | | | | 理，背靠 8 万 5 关口 ...