Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish rebound [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bullish with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainties in South America and the Middle East have increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices. However, the overall situation of crude oil supply surplus remains unchanged, and prices are under long - term pressure. Other energy - related products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, showing different trends [1][9]. - For chemical products, the supply - demand relationship, cost support, and device operation status are the main factors affecting their prices. Some products are expected to have short - term rebounds, while others are in a weak or bearish trend [1][2]. Summaries According to Different Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI dropped 0.22%, Brent fell 0.26%, and SC rose 0.69%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC are $57.95/barrel, $61.33/barrel, and 438.6 yuan/barrel respectively [7][8]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have led to a short - term rise in oil prices, but the core issue of supply surplus in the off - season remains. Global crude oil inventories are increasing, and US crude oil and refined product inventories are also accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [425 - 435] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4159 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [14]. - Fundamental Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which short - term boosted the gas price. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and is under pressure. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract price decreased slightly. The L05 basis was - 69 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the cost, but weak expectations limit the rebound height. Supply is sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20]. - Attention Range: L [6450 - 6600] [20] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract price decreased slightly. The PP05 basis was - 77 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the oil price. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [24]. - Attention Range: PP [6300 - 6450] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract price decreased slightly. The V05 basis was - 284 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 131 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 108477 [26][27]. - Fundamental Logic: Strong expectations dominate the short - term trend. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support has strengthened, increasing the expectation of future device maintenance. Pay attention to inventory changes [28]. - Attention Range: V [4800 - 4950] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract price decreased. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively tight in the short - term. Some devices have been restored, but the overall maintenance intensity is high. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. Pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the 05 contract. TA05 [5070 - 5150] [31] MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 contract price decreased. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [32]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is low, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The domestic device load has increased, demand is expected to weaken, and port inventories are rising. It will fluctuate following the cost in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. EG05 [3720 - 3800] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [37]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low. Supply pressure still exists, and demand has weakened slightly. The supply - demand relationship is slightly loose, but the downside space is limited [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the methanol 05 contract. MA05 [2220 - 2280] [39] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract price was 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton [43]. - Fundamental Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. Demand has weakened recently, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. However, there is an arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets and the expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the callback for the 05 contract. UR05 [1730 - 1760] [44] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 5th, the NG main contract closed at $3.618/MMBtu, a decrease of 1.84% [46]. - Fundamental Logic: The demand side is in the consumption peak season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the demand support for gas prices. The supply side is relatively abundant, and gas prices are under pressure [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 31st, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed [50]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America have led to an expected shortage of raw materials. Supply has decreased in January 2026, and demand has increased slightly. Inventory has increased [51]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious about risks. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract price decreased slightly. The FG05 basis was - 81 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1676 [54][55]. - Fundamental Logic: Factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. Short - term cold - repair expectations support the price, but long - term weak demand limits the rebound height [56]. - Attention Range: FG [1070 - 1120] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract price decreased. The SA05 basis was - 37 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4776 [58][59]. - Fundamental Logic: The continuous decline of float glass daily melting has led to insufficient demand support for heavy soda ash. Supply is expected to be loose in the long - term [60]. - Attention Range: SA [1150 - 1200] [60]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹供需总体体现季节性淡季特征，库存继续正常去化，已处于较低水平。目前供需层 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 面矛盾有限，国内宏观政策驱动不强，海外存在短期扰动，中期维持区间运行的状态。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，或继续维持区间运行。 | | ★ | | | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再增。钢厂按需补库。外矿发货冲量结束后明显缩量，冬储补库叠 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 加高炉复产，矿价坚挺。 | | | | 焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场预计开启第五轮提降。多轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态， | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 但亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产 | | ★★ | | 量环比转增，但下游补库积极性一般，按需采购为主。短期原料煤价格持续下跌，行情 | | | | 或跟随焦煤弱势运行。 | | | | 假期过后，前期停产煤 ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。巴西 | | 豆粕 | | 及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 月美农报告公布临近，市场预计单产 | | | 短线整理 | 会有下调，报告前受出口数据影响预计美豆偏弱震荡。综合南美天气及报告在即， | | ★ | | 国内豆粕追空看空需谨慎。关注美豆出口数据、1 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。加拿大总理中旬面临访 | | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 华，削弱市场看多情绪。菜粕以跟随豆粕为主。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进 | | ★ | | | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | 马棕榈油 | 12 月出口数据表现不佳，但产量进入减产，12 月库存预计仍会累库，棕 | | | 短线偏弱整理 | 榈油短线预计承压偏弱震荡。但由于减产季来临，以及印度斋月节备货需求，阶段 | | ★ | | 操作上仍可关注低位企稳看多机会。 | | | | 国内豆油库存环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish in the short - term [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical events in Venezuela have far - reaching impacts, and the geopolitical premium trading continues. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. Copper is favored in the medium - and long - term due to supply issues and strategic value. Zinc is supported by positive market sentiment and supply contraction expectations but faces risks of a high - level decline. Other metals have their own supply - demand and market - related characteristics affecting their price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver prices have increased. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio and COMEX gold - silver ratio have decreased. The dollar index has slightly declined, and the gold and silver ETFs and net long positions have changed [2]. - **Reasons**: The US economic data is weak, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. There are statements from US officials about the interest rate outlook. There is large - scale physical delivery in the COMEX silver contract, and geopolitical events are escalating [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain the view of an upward trend in the short - and long - term. The short - term support for silver is at 17700, and for gold is at 980. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but beware of the risk of the Bloomberg Commodity Index reducing the silver weight [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has reached a new historical high, and London copper has risen by more than 5% and broken through the 13,000 - dollar mark. Copper prices, trading volumes, and inventories have all changed [5]. - **Reasons**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight. Labor strikes and project delays have exacerbated the supply shortage. The supply growth rate of refined copper in China may slow down. Although the domestic copper inventory has increased, the market can accept the seasonal inventory accumulation. The high copper price has an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand in new energy and other fields is expected to be good [6]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - and long - term, copper is still favored. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [99,500, 105,000] yuan/ton, and London copper in the range of [12,800, 13,500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc has fluctuated strongly and returned to the 24,000 - yuan mark. Zinc prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [8]. - **Reasons**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The production of some domestic and foreign mines is affected, and the zinc smelting plant's operation is weak. The demand in the north is weak, but the new - energy field's demand can make up for part of the gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the zinc price is supported by positive sentiment and supply contraction, but there is a risk of a high - level decline. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in January. It is recommended to take profit in time for long positions and for enterprises to actively carry out selling hedging. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [23,800, 24,200] yuan/ton, and London zinc in the range of [3,150, 3,250] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price has continued to rise, and alumina has stabilized at a low level. Aluminum - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [11]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia has been put into production, and the inventory has increased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the aluminum ingot inventory. The main operation range of aluminum is [22,500 - 24,500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have rebounded and then declined. Nickel - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [15]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and some mines are suspected of illegal occupation of forest land. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has declined [17]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory. The main operation range of nickel is [125,000 - 139,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 has opened high and gone high, rising by more than 7%. Lithium - carbonate - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [19]. - **Reasons**: The weekly production has increased slightly, the total inventory has decreased slightly, but the production of downstream positive electrode factories has declined. The short - term news is positive, and the supply may not increase as expected [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to operate at a high level in the range of [125,000 - 135,000] yuan/ton [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹供需总体体现季节性淡季特征，库存继续正常去化，已处于较低水平。目前供需层 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 面矛盾有限，国内宏观政策驱动不强，海外存在短期扰动，中期维持区间运行的状态。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，或继续维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量，基本面偏弱， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 但供给端事件扰动下，交易情绪仍偏强。 | | | | 焦炭开启第四轮提降，预计 1 月 1 日起执行。三轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态，但 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | ★ | | 环比基本持平，钢厂维持小幅补库。盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，谨慎看多对待。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增多，矿山产量 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 | 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 | 月美农报告公布临 | | | | | | 豆粕 | 短线整理 | 近，报告前预计仍有震荡，豆粕追空看空需谨慎。关注美豆出口数据能否改善、1 | ★ | | | | | 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | | | | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。中加关系改善前，可关 | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 注逢低适量短多机会。关注 | 1 | 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进 | | | ★ | 展。 | | | | | | | 马棕榈油 | 12 | 月出口数据表现不佳，但产量进入减产，12 | 月库存预计仍会累库，但 | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 考虑委内瑞拉事件对原油价格的提振，预计今日棕榈油下跌有限。阶段操作上关注 | | ★ | 低位企稳看多机会。 | | | | | | | 国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure and decline [1] - Tin: Under pressure and decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and copper. The capture of the Venezuelan president has injected geopolitical risk premiums into the gold market and may distort the global copper supply [1][2][6] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different metals vary, affecting their price trends. For example, zinc is facing supply increase and demand decrease in the medium - long term, while aluminum and nickel are showing short - term rebound trends [1][8][12] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term attention to the trading of the safe - haven properties of gold and silver after the opening [1][3] - **Main logic**: The capture of the Venezuelan president has a far - reaching impact, enhancing the safe - haven demand for gold. The European economic data is weak, and the overall support for precious metals in 2026 is strong [2][3] - **Market data**: SHFE gold price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX gold price increased by 0.23%. SHFE silver price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX silver price increased by 1.81% [2] Copper - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term market volatility may increase, copper is likely to rise and difficult to fall [1][6] - **Main logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the geopolitical situation may further distort the supply. High copper prices suppress demand [5][6] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 0.84%, and the social inventory increased by 2.41 million tons [4] Zinc - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - **Main logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, supply slightly recovers, and the price center may gradually decline in January [8] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.06%, and the SMM seven - place social inventory decreased by 0.58 million tons [7] Aluminum - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][13] - **Main logic**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increases, the demand enters the off - season, and the alumina market is in excess [12] - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.80%, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.5 million tons [10] Nickel - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][17] - **Main logic**: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore quota, and the inventory is at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season [16] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract increased by 0.35%, and the SMM nickel ore port inventory decreased by 480,000 wet tons [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1][21] - **Main logic**: The production in January decreases, the supply has room to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20] - **Market data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.83%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons [18]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘生变，油价短线反弹，中长期依旧承压。地缘：南美地缘生变， 委内出现权力真空，短期原油出口受阻，中长期有提升预期；核心驱动： | | 原油 | | 淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | | | 升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | ★ | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 节后两油石化库存显著累库。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解 ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 从业资格证号：F0232181 投资咨询证号：Z000183 时间：2025.12.26 农产品团队： 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 NFR 2026 商品年度报告 双粕 主产国博弈年 双粕行情不确定性增强 展望 2026年，我们认为—— 在全球气候基本稳定以及全球大豆供应形势初步预期尚可的情况下，2026 年国内豆粕预计更多呈现阶段性行情机会，行情表现也会较2025年将更加复杂 多变。全球大豆供应状态有望在美国和巴西间形成博弈，博弈中国际大豆及国 内豆粕价格不确定性增强。但如果按照11月中国对美豆采购协议以及13%的关税， 国内豆粕2025年会面临成本抬升。关注2026年美豆种植面积以及中美采购协议 的稳定性。关注阶段性和成本下的逢低看多机会。 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业 务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 菜粕市场 受贸易政策影响，菜粕呈现内紧外松，内强外弱的表现。国际市场方面， 2025/26年度全球菜籽产量恢复性增加，利空国际菜系价格。强弱多重因素影响 下，202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the core logic of the Zhengzhou cotton market will revolve around the adjustment of Xinjiang's direct subsidy policy and the marginal repair of demand, and the market is expected to show characteristics of "strengthened bottom support and an upward shift in the range - bound oscillation" [4]. - The global cotton supply is unlikely to increase significantly, and the slow reduction of the previously excessive inventory will gradually push the global supply - demand pattern from a loose to a tight balance [115]. - The improvement in demand is more likely to be "gradual" rather than a rapid rebound. The domestic textile industry has resilience, and overseas restocking demand has the potential to be released [116]. - Throughout 2026, the cotton price will be under pressure in the short - term at the beginning of the year, and the price center may gradually rise after the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, if the tight - balance pattern of supply and demand is consolidated, the cotton price is expected to further repair its valuation [117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Market Review - In the Zhengzhou cotton market in 2025, the cotton price showed a step - by - step downward trend in the first half of the year, with fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, trade frictions, and supply - demand relationships. In the second half of the year, it was affected by factors such as the expectation of supply shortage and the release of downstream demand, showing a volatile upward trend [11]. - In the US cotton market in 2025, due to factors such as the high inventory of old crops in major producing areas, the repeated Sino - US tariff policies, and the lack of Chinese buying, the price remained in a low - level oscillation range of 60 - 70 cents per pound in the first half of the year, and the oscillation center dropped to 65 cents per pound in the second half of the year [12]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview - According to the December USDA report, the marginal adjustment of the global cotton market is relatively small, with a neutral - bearish impact on the global market. The global cotton output is slightly reduced, consumption is slightly decreased, trade volume is slightly adjusted downward, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are slightly increased [13][14][16]. 3.2.2 US Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, the US cotton production is slightly reduced. Although the planting area decreased due to the low cotton - grain price ratio, the favorable weather during the planting season led to a smaller - than - expected decline in the harvested area and an increase in yield per unit, offsetting some of the early - stage production reduction expectations [23]. - The US cotton export contract performance is poor, but there is a chance of recovery in 2026. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the increase in global textile demand will provide opportunities for the recovery of US cotton exports [30]. - The US cotton valuation is at a low level, and the relatively high inventory - to - consumption ratio restricts the upward space of the price. In the short - to - medium - term, the US cotton price may still face upward pressure [34]. 3.2.3 Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, the Brazilian cotton output increased, and the export scale in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach a new high. However, due to the low "grain - cotton price ratio" and the expected deterioration of weather conditions, the cotton production in 2026 is expected to decline [39][40]. 3.2.4 Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, the Indian cotton market showed the characteristics of "decreased production and increased imports", and the supply pattern was dominated by import supplementation. In the 2025/2026 season, the production is slightly reduced, and the ending inventory pressure is relatively large [44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation 3.3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Under the USDA's caliber, the estimated cotton output in the 2025/2026 season is 729.3 million tons, the consumption is 838.16 million tons, and the import is 117.56 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a relatively neutral level in the past three years [46]. - Under the BCO's caliber, the estimated output in the 2025/2026 season is 768 million tons, the consumption is 858 million tons, and the import is 120 million tons. The short - to - medium - term inventory pressure may be higher than that in the 2024/2025 season, but it is still relatively loose [46]. 3.3.2 Cost - The cost of lint cotton in the new year is stable, and the processing and sales of new cotton are relatively fast. The cost of lint cotton is roughly locked in the range of 14,374 - 15,246 yuan per ton, and the hedging pressure on the futures market has been greatly relieved [53]. 3.3.3 Output - The cotton output in the 2025/2026 season reaches a peak in the past ten years, but there are still narrow fluctuations. The output in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 7% - 10% year - on - year. The new direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang may lead to a reduction in production, and the weather conditions during the planting period in 2026 are expected to be worse than those in the 2024 - 2025 period [56][59]. 3.3.4 Import - In the 2024/2025 season, China's cotton imports are at a low level. In the 2025/2026 season, the expected upper limit of imports is limited, with an estimated import volume of about 110 - 120 million tons. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to US cotton exports to China, but the short - to - medium - term import pressure of US cotton may increase [65][66]. 3.3.5 Inventory - Affected by the high - yield in the 2025/2026 season, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a high level in recent years. However, due to the strong downstream consumption resilience, the inventory reduction is better than expected. The inventory of some sample enterprises' pure - cotton yarn is relatively high, while the overall inventory level of textile enterprises in the grey fabric and yarn links is relatively low [74][79]. 3.3.6 Demand - **Load and Profit**: In 2025, the overall starting rate of spinning mills is at a relatively low level, but the resilience after the "Golden September and Silver October" is better than expected. The immediate profit of textile enterprises shows a trend of "decline - repair - re - pressure". The continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton - spinning capacity is expected to support the cotton demand in the 2025/2026 season to remain flat or increase slightly [83][85][86]. - **Retail and Consumption**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative monthly retail sales of clothing by Chinese enterprises above the designated size increased moderately year - on - year. In the long - term, due to factors such as population structure changes, domestic terminal cotton - related consumption is still mainly based on rigid demand [90][94]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the decline in textile and clothing exports narrowed, and textile exports resumed growth. The export showed a pattern of "trading volume with price", and the export price of cotton yarn and clothing is at a low level in recent years. The optimization of Sino - US trade relations and the low inventory in the US market provide opportunities for the release of overseas restocking demand [102][106][114]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to strengthen its bottom support and gradually rise in the range - bound oscillation. The supply side will gradually shift from a loose to a tight balance, and the demand side will gradually recover. The cotton price will be under pressure in the short - term at the beginning of the year and may rise gradually after the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, if the tight - balance pattern of supply and demand is consolidated, the cotton price is expected to further repair its valuation [115][116][117].