Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on short positions [1] - L: Continue short positions [1] - PP: Continue short positions [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullbacks [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Slowdown in upward trend [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebounds [2] - Urea: Short - term rebound in a bear market [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price is weak. The supply - demand pattern of most chemical products is weak, with cost support weakening and inventory accumulation in some cases. Some products are affected by policy expectations and new capacity releases [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 0.28%, and SC dropped 0.45% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. Although it is in the consumption peak season, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons. China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% from January to June. The EIA data shows that as of the week of July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC +'s expansion cycle, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, it is recommended to lightly short and buy call options for protection. Focus on SC [505 - 525] [5] LPG - **Market situation**: On July 16, the PG main contract closed at 4108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [7] - **Basic logic**: With the production increase of OPEC +, the supply pressure of LPG is increasing. Two PDH plants are planned to restart at the end of the month, providing some support. As of July 11, the LPG commodity volume decreased, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed. Refinery and port inventories increased [8] - **Strategy recommendation**: After the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is high, so it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions. Focus on PG [4000 - 4100] [9] L - **Market situation**: Both futures and spot prices declined. The North China basis was - 64 (down 23 compared to the previous period) [11] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, the 9 - 1 spread has turned negative, and the basis is at a low level. Although recent device maintenance has alleviated supply pressure marginally, 2.05 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production from July to August, with a weak medium - to - long - term outlook. The agricultural film operating rate has increased month - on - month [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on L [7150 - 7300] [12] PP - **Market situation**: The East China basis was 80 (down 14 compared to the previous period). The market is expected to continue to be weak [15] - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, and recent warehouse receipts have been increasing. Enterprises and traders' inventories have decreased this week, but there are more device restart plans in the future. 2 million tons of new capacity are planned to be added in the third quarter, with long - term supply pressure. From January to May, exports increased by 22% year - on - year, and export profits are positive [16] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on PP [6950 - 7100] [16] PVC - **Market situation**: The Changzhou basis was - 94 (up 31 compared to the previous period). The spot price is expected to be weakly sideways [19] - **Basic logic**: Short - term policy expectations have weakened, and trading has returned to the weak fundamental situation. Social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and new capacity is being released. Both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. In July, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the stabilization of coal prices, there is support at the bottom [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. Focus on V [4900 - 5100] [20] PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous period), and the PX09 contract closed at 6694 (- 88) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, while overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventories are still relatively high. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+ 5.3) US dollars/ton [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on PX [6650 - 6750] [23] PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (- 20) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 (- 42) yuan/ton [24] - **Basic logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. Downstream polyester production cuts are ongoing, and the terminal weaving operating rate is declining. Inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weakening [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on TA [4650 - 4710] [26] MEG - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4305 (- 20) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken, and the polyester operating rate is declining. The social inventory has stopped falling, and the port inventory is low [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on EG [4300 - 4360] [29] Glass - **Market situation**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price corrected, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32] - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, policies on backward capacity exit and coal - fired production line technological transformation are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. In the short term, due to high - temperature conditions, the market is restricted. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, production has increased slightly, and inventories have continued to decline [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on FG [1060 - 1090] [32] Soda ash - **Market situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price closed down, the main - contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged [34] - **Basic logic**: Although the high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, the impact of policy speculation has weakened, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventories again. The supply is at a high level, and inventory removal is difficult. Downstream support is okay, but terminal consumption is weak [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking. Focus on SA [1200 - 1230] [2] Caustic soda - **Market situation**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially lowered, the futures price dropped from a high level, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [37] - **Basic logic**: The supply side has a summer maintenance season inventory - removal expectation, and the new capacity is expected to be put into production. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The downstream alumina operating rate has increased, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory has decreased [38] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously. Focus on SH [2460 - 2510] [38] Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2370 (- 28) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls are ongoing, but the comprehensive operating load remains relatively high. Overseas devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, and the coastal MTO external - procurement device load has continued to decline. Social inventories are accumulating [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on MA [2345 - 2375] [2] Urea - **Market situation**: The supply is under pressure, with a daily output of nearly 200,000 tons. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has weakened month - on - month, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - **Basic logic**: The cost support still exists, and the basis is strong. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is short - term speculation on urea exports [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly go long. Focus on UR [1725 - 1755] [2] Asphalt - **Market situation**: The cost - side oil price has declined, and the raw material supply is sufficient. The supply has decreased slightly, and inventories are accumulating [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with high valuation [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus on BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market situation**: The cost - side prices of crude oil and propane have continued to fall, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, some PP devices are shut down for maintenance, and new capacity in East China and Shandong is about to be put into production, putting pressure on the supply [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on propylene in the range of [6200 - 6350] [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and its price may face pressure [7]. - The market sentiment for coke has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The sentiment for coking coal has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The supply - demand contradiction in ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to operate within a range [18]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The Urban Work Conference did not release stimulus signals, indicating the end of the real - estate incremental era, which was more bearish than expected. In terms of supply and demand, both production and apparent demand of rebar decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory slightly declined, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons, the absolute level remained high. Currently, trading has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it is expected to operate within the range of [3100, 3140] in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both the production and apparent demand of hot - rolled coil slightly decreased month - on - month, and the inventory changed little. The overall supply - demand was relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the Urban Work Conference, the market sentiment declined, but later meetings such as the Politburo meeting may still provide stimulus. It is expected to operate within the range of [3260, 3300] in the short term [1][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, on the demand side, the molten iron output is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, both arrivals and shipments have increased, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are reducing inventory, and steel mills are restocking for rigid demand. The overall supply - demand structure is moderately weak. As the Urban Conference did not meet expectations, attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level. In the short term, the futures market may return to fundamental trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and lay out short positions in the medium term, with the price range of [770, 795] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increases has occurred, and the coking profit has slightly improved. The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel - mill coking enterprises remains high. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. The market sentiment has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The domestic coking coal production has recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of the same period last year. Since July, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply is expected to increase later. The upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot trading has improved. The overall market sentiment has improved. The short - term macro - expectation has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferrous Alloys (including manganese silicon and silicon iron) - **Manganese silicon**: Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The manganese ore on the cost side temporarily supports the price. However, recently, the electricity - cost in many production areas has decreased, and the long - term quotes of some mines have slightly dropped, so there is still an expectation of cost - side loosening. Although the molten iron output is currently at a high level, the actual demand may be pressured to decline due to the off - season. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. In the medium term, the price may be pressured to operate. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark, with the price range of [5655, 5845] [1][20][21]. - **Silicon iron**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand are decreasing. After the electricity price in production areas was lowered, the cost line has further moved down. The current factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories still have plans to resume production. As the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, it is more difficult for factories to reduce inventory. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. It is expected that the market will operate within the range of [5315, 5500] [1][20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, strategic allocation [1] - Silver: High - level oscillation, maintain a long - position mindset [1][3] - Copper: Oscillation, long - term bullish, short - term pay attention to the risk of pullback [1][6] - Zinc: Under pressure, seize short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][11] - Nickel: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][13] - Industrial silicon: High - level operation [1] - Polysilicon: High - level operation, take appropriate profit - taking for long positions [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global order is being reshaped, with fiscal and monetary double - easing trends remaining unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. However, short - term adjustments may occur, and the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend [3]. - For copper, although there is a risk of short - term pullback due to inventory and demand factors, the long - term outlook is positive as copper is an important strategic resource and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to alleviate [6]. - Zinc is facing short - term pressure due to factors such as the repair of processing fees, anti - dumping of overseas steel, and tariff uncertainties. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens [9]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, inventory accumulates, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to factors such as tariff disturbances, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are at high levels, but there are also factors restricting their upward movement, such as high inventory for industrial silicon and high prices and margin increases for polysilicon [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with the market affected by rumors and inventory contradictions, and the fundamentals have marginally improved but the inventory accumulation trend remains [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver maintained high - level oscillation due to low US inflation, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the possible dismissal of Powell [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US inflation was lower than expected in June; Trump considered dismissing Powell, threatening the independence of the Fed; there are geopolitical issues regarding the Iran nuclear problem; and there are still many tariff variables, with the global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing trends unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position mindset should be adopted [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased due to new smelter projects. The inventory of LME copper increased by over 10,000 tons, and there are concerns about the return of excess copper inventory from the US to the Asian market. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the demand from the power and automotive sectors has offset the weak demand from the real estate construction sector [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the pullback pressure caused by the verification of demand, but expect the deep decline of copper prices to be limited. Consider buying on dips after pullbacks. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000 - 79,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9600 - 9800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose in 2025, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates have continued to rebound. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 7.7% overnight. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure to decline. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens. Seize short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21,800 - 22,200] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2680 - 2780] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite remains high, and some domestic enterprises have carried out maintenance and production suspension, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas environment is uncertain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The domestic supply - demand situation has improved limitedly, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and closed higher, with shrinking trading volume [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand have both increased, but the total inventory has reached a new high and has been accumulating for 6 consecutive weeks. The supply has increased significantly, and the terminal demand has both positive and negative factors. The main contract is difficult to decline deeply but is also restricted by high inventory [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will operate at a high level in the short term, with the range of [65,500 - 67,500] yuan/ton [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the price may face pressure [7]. - The coke market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The coking coal sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The ferroalloy supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is expected to operate within a range [18]. Group 3: Summaries by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The urban work conference was bearish as it didn't release stimulus signals and confirmed the end of the real - estate incremental era. Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, with total inventory slightly down, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The transaction logic has shifted from industrial to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it will operate within the range of [3090, 3130] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the urban work conference, market sentiment declined, but later political bureau meetings may provide stimulus. It will operate within the range of [3230, 3270] [1][5]. Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot - metal production, which is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply side has an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments to come. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral - weak. The urban meeting was below expectations, and the short - term market may return to fundamental trading. Short - term observation is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the medium term. The price range is [750, 780] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increase occurred, and coking profit slightly improved. The fundamentals changed little. Independent coking enterprise production declined recently, but steel - mill coking production remained high. High hot - metal production guaranteed raw - material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of last year. Some shut - down mines will resume production in July, increasing supply later. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and spot trading improved. Market sentiment improved overall. Short - term macro - expectations cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but electricity costs in many production areas have decreased, and some mines' far - month quotes have slightly dropped, so there is an expectation of cost loosening. Although hot - metal production is at a high level, actual demand may decline in the off - season. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. The price range is [5690, 5880] [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand. After the reduction of power prices in production areas, the cost line has further decreased. Factory inventory is relatively high, and some factories plan to resume production, while the downstream off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to operate within the range of [5400, 5590] [1][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebound [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Uptrend slowing [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebound [2] - Urea: Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ expansion [1][3][5] - LPG: Cost - end drag from falling oil prices leads to weakness [7][9] - L: Cost support weakens, and it shows a weak sideways trend [11][12] - PP: Cost support fades, with a weak sideways trend due to factors like new capacity [15][17] - PVC: Market sentiment weakens, with a short - term long and long - term short strategy [19][21] - PX: Tight supply - demand balance vs. falling oil prices, with a bearish sideways trend [23][24] - PTA/PR: Supply - demand expected to be loose, with attention on shorting opportunities on rallies [25][26] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory vs. loose supply - demand expectations, focus on shorting opportunities [28][29] - Glass: Inventory continues to decline, supported by moving averages [32][33] - Soda ash: Difficult inventory reduction, weak rebound in the futures market [34][36] - Caustic soda: Liquid chlorine subsidy narrows, and the uptrend slows [37][39] - Methanol: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, bearish on rebound [40] - Urea: Supply pressure is large, with a bearish outlook [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end oil price decline and sufficient raw materials lead to a bearish outlook [2] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, and supply is under pressure [2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market situation**: International oil prices fell overnight. WTI dropped 2.40%, Brent 0.72%, and SC 0.51% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In supply, Russian exports decreased, and US rig count dropped. In demand, China's imports increased, and IEA adjusted demand growth forecasts. In inventory, US commercial crude inventory rose [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, light - position shorting with call option protection. Long - term, the price range is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [6]. LPG - **Market situation**: On July 15, PG main contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. PDH device profit decreased, and inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 4050 - 4150 yuan/ton [10]. L - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices both declined. North China basis was - 71 (compared to - 33 previously) [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure increases, and demand is in the off - season. New device production is expected in July - August [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton [14]. PP - **Market situation**: East China basis was 42 (compared to - 7 previously). The market is expected to be weak [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support fades, new capacity is planned in the third quarter, and exports are expected to maintain high growth [17]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [17]. PVC - **Market situation**: Changzhou basis was - 125 (compared to + 35 previously). The market is expected to be weak [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Upward drive is insufficient, inventory is rising, and exports are weakening. New devices are starting up [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [21]. PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton, and PX09 closed at 6694 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, inventory is high, and it follows cost fluctuations [24]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 6660 - 6760 yuan/ton [24]. PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China was 4715 yuan/ton, and TA09 closed at 4700 yuan/ton [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing [26]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 4670 - 4730 yuan/ton [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 4383 yuan/ton, and EG09 closed at 4305 yuan/ton [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weakening, and low inventory provides some support [29]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities, with a focus on the range of 4270 - 4340 yuan/ton [30]. Glass - **Market situation**: Spot prices increased, and the futures market pulled back. Basis widened [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Macro - policy expectations, inventory decreased, and cost increased. Spot prices were raised [33]. - **Strategy**: Buy on pullback, with a focus on the range of 1050 - 1080 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: Heavy - alkali spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined. Basis widened [35]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, inventory reduction is difficult, and policy speculation has weakened [36]. - **Strategy**: Narrow - range sideways, with a focus on the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market situation**: Spot prices were stable, the futures market was flat, basis strengthened, and warehouse receipts decreased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure may ease, demand from alumina is recovering, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously, with a focus on the range of 2480 - 2530 yuan/ton [39]. Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 2381 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2370 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, and inventory may start to accumulate [40]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - **Market situation**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak. Exports are growing [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and cost provides some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 1735 - 1765 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply decreased slightly, and inventory increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is affected by weather [2]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [2]. Propylene - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is under pressure [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, new capacity is about to be put into production [2]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton [2].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。7 月美农报告调增新年 | | | | 度美豆期末库存，偏利空。美豆下跌。昨日美豆种植报告显示种植情况环比改善。 | | | | 昨日豆粕小幅收跌。在缺乏基本面利多驱动下，价格出现整理。短期走势，在基本 | | | | 面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主力【2965， | | | | 3015】 | | | 短线反弹 | 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，部分地区土壤墒情偏干。新季全球菜籽产量有所恢 | | | | 复，但加籽种植面积同比下降，同比增幅受限，关注后续天气及单产情况。国内市 | | | | 场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 全球多国正通过双边谈判、WTO 申诉、反制清单 及技术管制 应对美国 8 月 1 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 日关税生效压力，同时俄乌冲突衍生贸易威胁加剧不确定性。中长期，多国政 | | | | 策宽松，多国央行继续购买黄金，未来不确定性仍然较多，战略配置。【765-795】 | | | | 白银供给有缺口，经济需求有支撑，各国宽财政刺激工业需求，多头积极，白 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 银盘面强势，长期看受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，短期关注前 9000 支 撑的有效性做好仓位控制。【9000-9375】 | | | | 美铜进口关税冲击影响边际消退，需求淡季叠加非美铜库存紧张预期减弱，或推动 | | 铜 | 震荡 | 短期隐形库存显性化，警惕需求证伪带来回调压力，但是预计铜深跌幅度有限，以 回调后逢低试多为主，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77000，79000】 | | | | 锌精矿加工费持续修复，海外钢铁反倾销影响镀锌钢材需求，特朗普关税不确 | | 锌 | 承压 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to factors such as high US tariffs, potential Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks [1]. - Silver is likely to have a strong - level range. Trump's tariff on Mexico impacts silver mine costs, and fiscal stimulus boosts industrial demand [1][3]. - Copper is expected to fluctuate. Although there may be short - term inventory and demand issues, long - term prospects are positive due to global copper shortages [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are uncertainties in global economy and demand [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure because of increased supply and insufficient downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the slow复产 of mines and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure due to high production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - Nickel is in a weak position. Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - Industrial silicon may rebound, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to trade in a high - level range, with policy expectations and price feedback loops driving the market [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level range. Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price, but inventory build - up remains a concern [1][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: High US tariffs, possible Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Future uncertainties are high, suitable for strategic allocation [1]. - **Price Range**: [765 - 795] [1] Silver - **Core View**: Strong - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Trump's 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods from August 1st affects Mexican silver mines. Silver's industrial use in solar panels also provides support [1][3]. - **Price Range**: [9000 - 9375] [1] Copper - **Core View**: Fluctuate [1] - **Main Logic**: The impact of US copper import tariffs is fading. There are short - term inventory and demand issues, but long - term supply shortages are expected due to global copper mine tensions [1][6]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai copper [77500, 79500]; London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. There are uncertainties in global economy and demand, and LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [1][9]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400]; London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9] Lead - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Increased supply of primary and recycled lead in July, insufficient downstream consumption, and inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [16700 - 17300] [1] Tin - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Slow复产 of mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [260000 - 269000] [1] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: High production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - **Price Range**: [20000 - 20600] [1] Nickel - **Core View**: Weak [1] - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - **Price Range**: [118000 - 121000] [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core View**: Rebound [1] - **Main Logic**: Rumors of canceled electricity subsidies and复产 cancellation are positive, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - **Price Range**: [8530 - 8800] [1] Polysilicon - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Policy expectations and price feedback loops drive the market, but high prices and margin hikes on the exchange increase volatility [1]. - **Price Range**: [40900 - 42500] [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price. Although the fundamentals are improving marginally, inventory build - up continues [1][14]. - **Price Range**: [65300 - 67000] [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/PR, Ethylene glycol, Asphalt, Propylene [1][2][3] - **Bullish Rebound**: Glass, Caustic soda, Urea [2] - **Narrow - range Increase**: Soda ash [2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Continued Rebound**: PVC [1] - **Weak Oscillation**: Propylene [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, leading to a decline in oil prices. LPG is weak due to the falling oil prices at the cost - end and sufficient propane supply. L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with cost support weakening and supply - side pressures. PVC has a short - term long and long - term short trend driven by policy expectations. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance but is affected by falling oil prices, presenting a bearish oscillation. PTA and ethylene glycol have an expectedly loose supply - demand situation and are recommended to short at high prices. Glass is expected to rise due to inventory reduction and policy support. Soda ash has a narrow - range increase under high - supply and high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda continues to rebound with supply pressure easing and demand from alumina. Methanol is bearish on rebounds due to device maintenance and MTO demand negative feedback. Urea is short - term strong due to international price increases and export speculation. Asphalt is bearish as the cost - end oil prices fall and supply is sufficient. Propylene is in a weak oscillation with cost support weakening [1][2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 3.86%, Brent down 1.63%, and SC up 1.55% [4][5]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. During the consumption peak season, there is some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released, pressuring the oil prices above. In terms of supply, Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons, and the number of active US oil rigs decreased to 424. In terms of demand, China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, and the IEA expects a global oil demand growth of 720,000 barrels per day in 2026. In terms of inventory, the US crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion cycle, the crude oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [505 - 525] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,182 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,590 (+0), 4,496 (+0), and 4,640 (+20) yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. With OPEC+'s production increase, the supply - side pressure of LPG is rising, and the demand is weak. As of July 11, the PDH device profit was - 384 yuan/ton, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of upstream crude oil is expected to move down, and LPG is over - valued. It is recommended to short with a light position. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4100 - 4200] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market returns to fundamentals. Although the oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply changes little. The cost support weakens, the device maintenance increases, and the supply pressure eases marginally. There are new device production plans in July - August, with a long - term weak expectation. The agricultural film start - up rate increases month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term oscillation, try to go long on dips. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract price and related indicators show certain changes, such as the main contract closing price, position, and inventory [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The cost support weakens as the centers of propylene and crude oil move down. The number of Jineng Chemical's warehouse receipts continues to increase, suppressing the rebound space. The device restart plans increase, and there are new production capacity plans in the third quarter, putting pressure on the long - term supply [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, and take the opportunity to conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract price and related indicators change, with the main contract closing price rising and the warehouse receipts increasing [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The scale of domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance is expected to narrow, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the upstream cost is expected to be stable next week. The market continues to trade "anti - involution", with insufficient upward driving force in fundamentals, increasing warehouse receipts, and rising social inventory. Some devices are under maintenance or starting up, and it is in the off - season of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the change of anti - dumping tax policies [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PX spot price in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,694 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices reduce their loads, and overseas devices operate at a high load. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+5.3) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 99.7 (-4.0) dollars/ton. The gasoline cracking spread weakens. The PX weekly output is 69.7 (-1.1) million tons, and the international PX start - up rate is 73.8% (+0.6pct). The import volume in May was 77.3 million tons. The demand is relatively sufficient, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6710 - 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,715 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,700 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is sufficient. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. The PTA spot processing fee is 125.9 (-4.9) yuan/ton, the disk processing fee is 315.4 (+15.6) yuan/ton, the weekly device maintenance capacity loss is 35.2 (-2.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 80.4% (+1.2pct), and the weekly output is 143.7 (+2.1) million tons. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing but overall neutral [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4700 - 4770] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,383 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,305 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device maintenance is less than that of restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing, with a loose supply expectation. The MEG weekly maintenance loss is 24.1 (-0.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 60.4% (+0.6pct), and the weekly output is 36.7 (+0.2) million tons. The arrival volume and import volume are low, but the expected arrival volume increases. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is stable, with the port inventory being low [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4310 - 4370] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price in the central China market increases, the futures price rises, the basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged [27][29]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro - level, the policy emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity and the technological improvement of coal - fired production lines, which is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The in - production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the weekly output increases slightly, the enterprise inventory decreases, and the production profit varies. The fuel price rises, and the spot price increases [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on going long based on the 5 - day moving average. FG is recommended to focus on the range of [1080 - 1110] [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price rises, the main basis narrows, the warehouse receipts decrease, and the forecast remains unchanged [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side capacity - reduction policy boosts the industry, but the market sentiment is slightly negative as the policy speculation weakens and the inventory accumulates. The supply is at a high level with a slight decrease due to device maintenance. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32%, the inventory increases, and the downstream support is okay but the terminal consumption is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider shorting on rebounds. SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1220 - 1250] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price generally increases, the futures price center moves up, the basis strengthens, and the warehouse receipts decrease [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate is 80.4%, with a decline of 0.1% month - on - month, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply pressure may ease in the short - term. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry increases, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the liquid - caustic inventory decreases [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to continue to rebound. SH is recommended to focus on the range of [2500 - 2550] [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,381 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,370 yuan/ton. The basis and month - spread change, and the trans - shipment profit increases [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up load, while the overseas device load recovers. The supply pressure is still large. The methanol weighted profit is 102.1 (-1.2) yuan/ton, the weekly device loss is 34.36 (+7.71) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 84.75% (-3.42pct), and the weekly output is 190.99 (-7.71) million tons. The MTO demand has a negative feedback, the traditional downstream start - up rate is high, the social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is recommended to focus on the range of [2375 - 2415] [38]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The daily urea output is nearly 200,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, the industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand decreases month - on - month. The cost support exists, the basis is strong, the domestic fundamentals are loose, the international price rises, and there is speculation about urea exports [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long with a light position when the market opens low, and also pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. UR is recommended to focus on the range of [1755 - 1785] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price falls, the raw material supply is sufficient, the supply decreases slightly, the inventory accumulates, the fundamentals are neutral, and the demand is affected by the weather, with the previous "north - strong and south - weak" pattern reversed [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. BU is recommended to focus on the range of [3620 - 3680] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end propane price continues to fall, the cost support weakens, the device restart plans increase, the output is expected to increase, and the downstream and traders replenish stocks at low prices [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term decline space is limited, and short on rebounds. Propylene is recommended to focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term rebound, with no fundamental bullish drivers, and the market is expected to move in a range. The main contract range is [2965, 3015] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with high tariffs and low imports providing support. The short - term market is treated as a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous highs. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. Although there is an inventory build - up cycle, multiple bullish factors are at play. However, caution is needed when going long due to the supply season. The main contract range is [8600, 8800] [1]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. The market is affected by a combination of bullish and bearish factors, and the cotton price is expected to face pressure at the 14,000 level. The main contract range is [13750, 13950] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies. The new - season production shows no obvious signs of reduction, and the inventory is high while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to sell on rallies after the second - crop flower setting in the middle and late period. The main contract range is [10200, 10650] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak and volatile. The short - term market is affected by the slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry. The upside space for pig prices is limited, and there is a risk of a callback in the 09 contract. The main contract range is [14150, 14450] [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, and South America has a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory build - up stage for soybeans and soybean meal. Feed enterprises' inventory is higher than last year, and the enthusiasm for further replenishment is expected to slow down [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.09 million tons, or 3.31% [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2908.86 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: From July to September, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 14.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.05 million tons [8]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2659 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2632.11 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The inventory build - up cycle in Southeast Asia has started, but there are multiple bullish factors such as low - price procurement demand from China and India, US biodiesel policies, and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy. The US's potential 32% tariff on Indonesia will benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory of palm oil was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons, or 5.21% [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8748 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, the cotton planting area has decreased year - on - year, but the excellent - good rate is high, and the weekly export has increased significantly. In China, the new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The import of cotton has decreased, and the inventory of domestic cotton is decreasing [1]. - **Data**: In 2025, the US cotton planting area was 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The national cotton actual sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [13][14]. - **Price**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13875 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.20% to 15313 yuan/ton [12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of yield reduction. The inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is in the off - season [1]. - **Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10430 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4630 tons [17]. - **Price**: The main contract, CJ2601, closed at 10390 yuan/ton, down 2.03% from the previous day [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in July has decreased compared to June, and scale farms are holding back on sales. In the medium and long term, the number of newborn piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half slaughter volume [1]. - **Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the monthly pig slaughter volume was 11.2559 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.51% [18]. - **Price**: The main contract, Lh2509, closed at 14285 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.07% to 14920 yuan/ton [18].