Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level range - bound [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level range - bound [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various metals including precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals. It assesses their market conditions based on macro - economic data, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market condition**: US data and Fed officials' statements support rate cuts, and the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is agreed upon, providing long - term support for gold. Silver has high elasticity and is favored by liquidity in 2025, with a significant increase of over 70% [1][2][3] - **Logic**: US economic data such as core PPI and retail sales support rate cuts; Fed officials advocate rate cuts; the Russia - Ukraine negotiation makes progress; in the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Strategy**: Long - term value allocation positions can be held, short - term trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 920 and silver at around 11500 [3] Copper - **Market condition**: The game between long and short is intense, with copper showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Overnight, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell [4][5] - **Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the TC of copper concentrates has declined. In October, China's imported copper concentrates increased year - on - year, but the production of electrolytic copper decreased. The global visible copper inventory is at a high level, with strong demand in the power and automotive sectors and weak demand in real estate and infrastructure [5] - **Strategy**: Do not chase high prices. Buy on dips during corrections. In the medium and long term, be bullish on copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [85500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market condition**: Zinc is under pressure and weak due to weak demand in the off - season [7] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has declined, and the profit of refined zinc enterprises is in deficit. In October, the production of refined zinc increased but was lower than expected. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [8] - **Strategy**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and weak. In the medium and long term, supply increases while demand decreases. Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market condition**: Aluminum prices face pressure during rebounds, and alumina shows a weak trend at a low level [10][11] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production and are expected to continue to cut production next March. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots is stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The demand shows a structural differentiation. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to increase, and the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [12] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term. Pay attention to the change direction of the social inventory of aluminum ingots, with the main operating range at [21000 - 21600] [13] Nickel - **Market condition**: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel shows a slight rebound [14][15] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and some smelters may cut production. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [16] - **Strategy**: Take profit on dips for nickel and stainless steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory changes of downstream stainless steel, with the main operating range of nickel at [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market condition**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and went high, with reduced positions and an increase of over 4% [18][19] - **Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, with upstream inventory further reduced and downstream inventory actively reduced to a reasonable range, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the terminal demand remains strong. However, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down [20] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the gap, and take profit on long positions in a timely manner within the range of [92800 - 97000] [21]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美降雨低于正常水平对种植存在干扰。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价心 | | 豆粕 | | 理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴西 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作。短线偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高。11 月 22 日新 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 沙港将有一船澳籽到港。实质影响有限。基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日跟随豆 | | ★ | | 粕收涨，逢低短多对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | 棕榈油 | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日回落收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | 短期震荡 | 问题，美生柴乐观情绪升温，叠加巴西 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | | | - | | P | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美联储降息概率上升至 80%，俄乌问题再生变数，美国日本推出财政大刺激，黄金 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 有支撑。建议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金、及其他有色品种波动，特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准。长期来看白银基 | | | 长线持有 | 本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关 | | ★ | 注 | 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储鸽派官员密集发声，12 月降息概率走高，特朗普启动创世纪计划提振 AI，市 | | 铜 ★ | 长线持有 | 场情绪好转。消费淡季供需双弱，海外铜库存增加压制铜上方空间，短期铜高位整 | | | | 理，背靠 8 万 5 关口 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3089 | 32 | 热卷01 | 3295 | 25 | | 螺纹05 | 3118 | 20 | 热卷05 | 3292 | 18 | | 螺纹10 | 3167 | 25 | 热卷10 | 3300 | 22 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2980 | 30 | 张家港废钢 | 2100 | -30 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3130 | 10 | 热卷:天津 | 3220 | 20 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3240 | 20 | 热卷:上海 | 3290 | 20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3280 | 30 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3330 | 10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3450 | 50 | 热卷:广州 | 3310 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3220 | 20 | 热卷:成都 | 3330 | O | | 基差 | 最新 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Tin: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level correction [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged due to repeated internal Fed discussions on interest rate cuts and new geopolitical variables. Silver follows gold and other non - ferrous metals, with greater elasticity. Copper has long - term upward potential despite high inventories. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long run. Aluminum is under pressure at high levels due to the off - season effect. Nickel's supply - demand surplus persists, and its price remains weak. Lithium carbonate has short - term correction space [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold is at 926.94, down 0.91% from the previous value and 0.27% week - on - week; COMEX gold is at 4063, down 0.34% from the previous value and 0.11% week - on - week. SHFE silver is at 11680, down 3.07% from the previous value and 2.12% week - on - week; COMEX silver is at 49.66, down 0.01 from the previous value and 1.74% week - on - week. The dollar index is at 100.15, down 0.07% from the previous value and up 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are many data and event fluctuations, and there is support below for gold and silver. The long - term support for gold comes from Fed interest rate policy uncertainty, Japanese economic stimulus, and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight closing price of SHFE copper rose. The latest price of SHFE copper is 86180 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; LME copper is at 10778 dollars/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the latest TC at - 41.72 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 dollars/ton. In October, China imported 245.1 million tons of copper concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The downstream actively purchased at low prices after the copper price decline, and the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.07%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Backed by the 85,000 yuan mark, try to go long on dips. In the medium - to - long term, be bullish on copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [85,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc was under pressure and fluctuated narrowly. The latest price of SHFE zinc is 22350 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2992 dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has continued to decline. In October, the output of refined zinc increased by 1.71 million tons month - on - month to 61.72 million tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and the LME zinc inventory has increased to 47325 tons, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. The range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2950, 3050] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price was under pressure at high levels, and alumina showed a weak trend at low levels. The latest price of LME aluminum is 2790.5 dollars/ton, down 0.57% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 21340 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous value [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production by 21 million tons and are expected to cut production further in March next year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in November is 62.1 million tons, flat compared to last week. For alumina, the bauxite shipment in Guinea is expected to increase, and the domestic alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for SHFE aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The operating range for the main contract is [21,000 - 21,600] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price continued to be weak, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined. The latest price of LME nickel is 14405 dollars/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 114050 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and closed at the daily limit down [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the operating rate still has room to rise. Terminal demand remains strong, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November has slowed down [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the range of [89,500 - 93,000] yuan/ton [22]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比均上升，库存环比下降，杭州地区库存环比亦小幅下降，绝对水平 | | | 谨慎看空 | 仍然较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比略降，钢厂主动减限产意愿较低。短期维持 | | ★ | | 区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量环比回升，库存小幅下降，仍为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢厂 | | ★ | | 减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅转降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有减量预期，关注其落地 | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 情况。钢厂、港口去库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱，但高铁水支 | | | | 撑下，矿价仍然坚挺。 | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润小幅改善，市场对于后续提降存在分歧。从需求来看，铁水产 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 量环比微降但整体维持高位运行，钢厂按需补库下，短期焦企出货情况尚可，多数维持 | | ★ | | 正常生产。前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，观望为主。 | | | ...

碳酸锂周报： 去库幅度不及预期，碳酸锂高位回落 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.11.21 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国11月一年期与五年期LPR维持不变，连续6个月保持不变。美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期5.1万的 两倍多，与此同时8月份新增就业人数从增长2.2万人下修2.6万，至减少0.4万人，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。失 业率上升至4.4%，创四年来最高记录。受大规模经济刺激计划预期影响，日本国债收益率持续攀升，引发外资抛售潮。市场担忧 日本财政健康状况恶化，刺激政策可能推高债务风险。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量继续增加，周度产量维持在2.4万以上并创下年内新高，行业平均开工率回升至52%以上仍有上行空间。 2025年10月中国碳酸锂进口数量为2.38万吨，环比增加21.9%，同比增加3.0%。锂辉石进口数量为65.17万吨，环比减少8.3%。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来 累计零售1070.3万辆，同比增长21%；全国乘用车厂商新 ...

沪铜周报 宏观压制叠加淡季累库，铜承压回落 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-11-21 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 观点摘要 【观点总结】 整体而言，宏观情绪转冷，市场提前计价美联储12月不降息，美元走强压制铜价， 叠加海内外库存累库，铜短期承压偏弱运行，测试下方8万5重要心理关口支撑。短期建议等待止 跌企稳，右侧逢低布局，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张 和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧长期看好。 【策略展望】 策略：新入场投机等待止跌企稳，右侧布局，可背靠84500-85000逢低试多，止损83000 前期的中长期战略多单可买入铜看跌期权对冲持仓风险 产业卖出套保根据现货库存，反弹布局卖出套保，倒金字塔建仓，对冲库存跌价风险 产业买入套保可等待时机，现货适量刚需采购，中长期等待价格回调逢低建仓，锁定原材 料成本 短期沪铜关注区间【84000，88000】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【10400，11000】美元/吨 风险关注：中美关系，铜矿干扰，需求不足 2 海外宏观 美国11月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数22万人， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].