让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：陈为昌 黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/12/26 2026 年年度策略报告 钢材 产业格局面临重塑，周期底部等待新生 2025 年钢材弱需求贯穿始终，对行情形成了持续压制。阶段性的上行驱 动来自控产政策预期以及焦煤供给端减量提振。全年振幅 500 元/吨左右，波 动性下降，运行中枢进一步下移。 2026 年"反内卷"将进入落地执行阶段，但在钢铁行业稳增长方案以及 焦煤进口定调增长的背景下，或难出现 2025 年 6-7 月份的拉涨行情。宏观政 策大概率维持防风险，促企稳的思路，但仍有阶段性提振。 房地产新开工面积仍存在回落空间，2026 年仍将处于寻底状态；基建投 资增速难有明显改观。"十五五"规划或推动一批重大基建项目落地，或能 为市场提供短期交易机会。制造业冷热不均，但相对 2025 年边际或有一定收 缩可能。叠加钢材及钢坯出口的减量预期，2026 年需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market in 2026 is expected to be under overall pressure, showing a pattern of "wide - range fluctuations and a gradual decline in the center of gravity". The core logic lies in the continuous game between the definite contraction of demand and the structural support of supply [3]. - The probability of a trend - based unilateral market for double - coking in 2026 is low. It is recommended to adopt an interval - fluctuation approach in operation, focusing on the actual demand of downstream finished products, changes in high - quality coal inventories, and the strength of support near the cost line, while also seizing the annual trading rhythm according to seasonal patterns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 1.1 Market行情回顾 - In 2025, the coking coal market showed a typical "bottom - finding - rebound - peak - decline" cycle. From the "924" market in 2024, coking coal futures started a downward trend, with the monthly line closing down for eight consecutive months, a cumulative decline of over 55%. The weighted index hit the annual low at the end of May, a new low since 2017. From June to July, driven by market expectations of "anti - involution and capacity reduction", the market rebounded strongly, and coking coal futures led the black - series and bulk commodities, with a cumulative increase of over 80%, significantly higher than the performance of rebar, iron ore, and coke during the same period. After about three months of high - level fluctuations, the market peaked at the end of October and then entered a downward - fluctuation channel until the end of the year [8]. - The spot and futures markets moved in the same direction but with significant price separation. The main inflection points were dominated by fundamentals, and the continuous high - basis structure highlighted the deep game between the cost support in the spot market and the bearish expectations of weakening future demand in the futures market [8]. 1.2 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Analysis 1.2.1 Supply Overview: Controllable Total Quantity, Limited Increment, and Diminishing Fluctuations - From January to November in 2025, the cumulative domestic raw coal production was 44.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In November, the raw coal production was 4.3 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the annual raw coal production will exceed 48.0 billion tons, and the raw coal supply is relatively stable. From January to October, the total supply of coking coal (including imports) was 4.91 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. Since July 2025, due to "anti - involution" and coal - mine over - production inspections, the domestic supply has tightened, and the operating rates of mines and coal - washing plants have remained at a low level compared to the same period [11]. - In 2026, coal production is expected to continue the production inertia since the second half of 2025, with a possible slight decline compared to 2025. The total supply is expected to be "controllable in total quantity, limited in increment, and with diminishing fluctuations". The supply - side price driver will shift from "quantitative change" to relying more on "structural disturbances" and demand - side changes [11]. 1.2.2 Coking Coal Imports: The Long - Term Agreement Price of Mongolian Coal Has Become an Important "Price Anchor" in the Market - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 104.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In November, the import volume was 10.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Mongolia and Russia were the main sources of support. Mongolia's cumulative imports were 53.36 million tons (accounting for 50.9% of the total), with a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and Russia's also increased by 4.6%. The import reduction mainly came from US coal [20]. - Although the total imports of Mongolian coal have increased, the proportion of high - quality prime coking coal available for futures delivery has been continuously low. The current long - term agreement price of Mongolian coal has become an important "price anchor" in the market. It is expected that the long - term agreement price will increase by $8 - 10 per ton in the first quarter, corresponding to a cost of about 800 yuan per ton and a converted warehouse - receipt cost of about 950 yuan per ton on the futures market. The adjustment window and amplitude of the long - term agreement price will be core factors affecting the subsequent price range. The cross - border railway planned to open in 2027 may have an impact on the market in 2026, and there is a risk that it may lead to a reduction in the actual deliverable resources in the Chinese market [21][23]. 1.2.3 Overview of Thermal Coal: Policy Sets the Tone, and Price Ratio Finds the Anchor - In 2025, the price trend of thermal coal was similar to that of coking coal, showing a V - shaped "bottom - finding - rebound" pattern. The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal (coking - to - thermal ratio) has been continuously declining. Since the second quarter of 2025, the coking coal price has deviated significantly from the normal level, and the coking - to - thermal ratio reached a minimum of around 1.16 [29]. - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative thermal coal imports were 312.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. It is expected that the annual imports will be about 345 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. The import reduction mainly came from Indonesia and Australia. On the demand side, from January to November, the cumulative total social power generation was 8,856.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, while the thermal power generation was 5,712.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The proportion of thermal power in the total power generation has been declining since February 2025, reaching 64.50% in November, the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [30]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the signing and performance supervision of medium - and long - term contracts for thermal coal supply in 2026, which refines the price mechanism, clearly differentiates between production areas and ports, and introduces a more specific "benchmark price + fluctuation" mechanism and reasonable regional price ranges. Stricter performance requirements are set. The stable price of thermal coal may have a synergistic effect on the coking coal market, promoting the coking coal price to stabilize in a reasonable range [31]. 1.3 Coking Coal Inventory and Profit 1.3.1 Coking Coal Inventory: Not Low in Total Quantity but Differentiated in Structure, with Enhanced Overall Elasticity - In 2025, the coking coal inventory showed a clear transfer from "mines and ports to downstream". The port inventory was at an absolute high at the beginning of the year but then continuously decreased, while the inventories of downstream steel mills and coking plants significantly rebounded from a low level since the end of the second quarter [40]. - In 2026, although the total import target of Mongolian coal is expected to increase, the proportion of high - quality prime coking coal available for delivery is insufficient. The total inventory may remain at a medium - to - high level, but the high - quality coal that meets the delivery standards may be structurally tight. The port inventory will play a more critical regulatory role, and its fluctuations will more sensitively reflect the game of multiple factors such as "Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, auctions, long - term agreement arrivals, and potential resource diversion to overseas markets". The downstream is likely to maintain low inventories and purchase on demand, and it is difficult for steel mills and coking plants to accumulate large - scale inventories [40]. 1.3.2 Coal Profits: The Industry Is Deeply in Historic Huge Losses, and a Survival Game Is Being Played Below the Cost Line - Since the high - profit cycle in 2021, the coal industry has entered a downward channel, and the total profit has turned significantly negative year - on - year since 2023, indicating a systematic weakening of the industry's profitability. The proportion of loss - making enterprises has continued to rise, and since the first half of 2025, the proportion of loss - making coal enterprises has soared, reaching a historical high of 55.58% in June [50]. - Against the background of widespread industry losses, the cost - support effect will be significantly enhanced. The long - term agreement cost of Mongolian coal has become an important "price anchor" in the market, and the survival pressure on high - cost mines will increase, which may accelerate the industry reshuffle. In 2026 and the future, the coking coal industry will play a game around "structural supply contradictions" and "industry - wide cost lines" under the framework of "shrinking total demand" [52]. Chapter 2: Coke Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Market行情回顾 - The coke futures price was highly correlated with that of coking coal. Since June 2025, with the strong rebound of coking coal futures, the cumulative increase of coke futures was more than 40%. The spot prices at ports and production areas increased by about 30% and 35% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the market turned into wide - range fluctuations, with the weighted index running in the range of 1,500 - 1,850 yuan per ton, in line with the trend of coking coal futures [55]. 2.2 Coke Supply - Demand Analysis 2.2.1 Coke Supply: The Industry Is Still in an Excess - Capacity State, with Parallel Capacity Optimization and Output Adjustment - From January to November 2025, the cumulative domestic coke production was 460.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In November, the coke production was 41.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. It is expected that the annual coke production will be about 500 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.8%, and the industry supply is still in a loose state [59]. - Currently, there are about 500 coking enterprises in China, with a total production capacity of about 630 million tons. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and other provinces. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the coking industry basically completed the elimination of backward production capacity of 4.3 - meter coke ovens. In 2026, the total coke production capacity may remain stable or slightly increase, but the capacity structure will continue to be optimized. The coke output is expected to decline slightly following the demand, and the industry will generally operate with low profits [59][60]. 2.2.2 Coke Demand: Diminishing Drivers, Structural Optimization - In 2025, the weekly average of molten iron production was 2.37 million tons, significantly higher than that of 2024 (2.297 million tons) and second only to 2023 (2.389 million tons). The profitability rate of steel enterprises improved significantly in 2025, mainly due to the alleviation of cost - side pressure from raw materials (especially coking coal) and the good performance on the demand side (especially the export side) of steel products [64]. - For the coke demand outlook in 2026, in the optimistic scenario, if macro - policy stimulus is effective, traditional demand in real estate and infrastructure stabilizes, and the steel - using demand in the manufacturing industry remains resilient, and the "price - for - volume" model of steel exports is sustainable, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills may remain in the current high - level range, and coke demand may see a moderate increase. In the conservative scenario, considering the clear orientation of "quantity reduction and stock optimization" in the steel industry during the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the long - term adjustment pressure in the real estate market, the total steel demand is likely to continue to decline slightly, and coke consumption is expected to decline in tandem with molten iron production, with the annual demand showing a pattern of "high at the beginning and low at the end, and overall contraction". Currently, the probability of the conservative scenario is relatively higher, and the demand side is difficult to provide strong upward drivers [65][67]. 2.3 Coke Inventory and Profit 2.3.1 Coke Inventory: Higher Than the Same Period, with the Overall Pattern Continuing and Local Fluctuations Amplified - Similar to the coking coal inventory in 2025, the coke inventory showed the characteristics of "higher than the same period, with the overall pattern continuing and local fluctuations amplified". The annual fluctuation trends of total inventory, port inventory, steel - mill inventory, and independent coking - enterprise inventory were similar to previous years, still following the basic rhythm of seasonal inventory replenishment and reduction, indicating the stability of the internal logic of industrial operation. The main difference was that the fluctuation range of inventory at each link was more intense than in previous years, reflecting faster changes in market sentiment and supply - demand expectations [71]. - In 2026, the inventory trend is expected to continue the seasonal fluctuation pattern. If the terminal demand and industry policies are relatively stable, the inventory will be adjusted around the previous - year central level. However, if there are significant changes in demand expectations or supply policies, the inventory may experience wide - range fluctuations similar to those in 2025. Special attention should be paid to the leading indication of inventory changes in ports and independent coking enterprises on market sentiment [72]. 2.3.2 Coking Profits: Low at the Beginning and High at the End, Under Overall Pressure - In 2025, the coking profit rate fluctuated around ±5%, showing the characteristics of "low at the beginning and high at the end, under overall pressure". At the beginning of the year, the profit per ton of coke and the profit rate were at the lowest levels compared to the same period in the past five years and fluctuated around the break - even point for a long time. The profit improved only in the second half of the year. Compared with previous years, the profit curve in 2025 was somewhat similar to that from 2023 - 2024 in terms of fluctuation pattern but differed in the rhythm and elasticity of profit repair, and the overall profit space was still narrow [78]. - In 2026, in the context of the difficult - to - change profit - distribution pattern in the industrial chain, coking profits are expected to continue to fluctuate in a low - level range and are unlikely to return to the high - profit era. The specific trend will mainly depend on the strength of steel demand, the cost support of coking coal, and the influence of environmental - protection and other policies, and the possibility of a significant expansion of profits in the short term is low [79]. 2.3.3 Coking Industry Business Strategy - Inventory and profit are core indicators for judging the fundamentals of commodities and future market conditions, and they interact with each other. A nine - grid analysis framework is constructed to assist production enterprises in making production decisions in different scenarios. As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton, and the inventory was at the second - highest level in the past five years, corresponding to the "high - inventory - break - even" combination. It is recommended that enterprises control the coking coal procurement rhythm, give priority to consuming existing raw - material inventories, and sell an appropriate proportion of futures contracts to lock in existing profits. This strategy is based on the overall industry level, and enterprises can adjust it according to their own situations [81][83]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Double - Coking Market in 2026 - From the perspective of the domestic double - coking fundamentals in 2026, the market will present a game pattern between "definite contraction on the demand side" and "structural support on the supply side". The demand side is the core constraint. The steel industry is expected to see a slight decline in crude steel and molten iron production during the "15th Five - Year Plan", which means that the total demand for coke and upstream coking coal will have no growth momentum. The supply side shows differentiation. For coking coal, domestic production will be "controllable in total quantity and limited in increment", and the core variable lies in the import structure. For coke, the industry is still in an excess - capacity state, and the output will be flexibly adjusted according to demand and profit, with overall loose supply. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation of coking coal is slightly stronger than that of coke [86][87]. - In terms of valuation and the strength relationship among black commodities, double - coking, especially coking coal, is at a low - valuation level, but the upward driving force is restricted by the redistribution of industrial - chain profits. The coking coal/iron - ore price ratio is a key indicator for measuring the profit distribution of the industrial chain. In 2026, in the context of weakening steel demand, the overall profit of the black industrial chain is difficult to expand, and the internal profit game will be the norm. The weak position of double - coking relative to iron ore is difficult to fundamentally reverse, but its absolute price has limited downward space due to low valuation and cost support, and the trend will be mainly resistance - based decline or interval fluctuations [88]. -

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周国内最新大豆库存环比大幅下降，但豆粕库存环比增加，且同比偏高。但一季 | | | | 度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。加上阿根 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 廷降雨再度低于正常水平，存在升水支持。但美豆周度出口数据持续恶化，美豆暂 | | ★ | | 难言企稳，因此豆粕看多逢低适量短多为宜，元旦假期做好仓位控制。关注美豆出 | | | | 口数据能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，库存压力缓解， | | ★ | | 比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 25 日出口数据环比增加，产量环比继续调减，12 月存在去库预期， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 昨日棕榈油收涨，关注月底最终数据。看多逢低参与，元旦假期做好仓位管理。 | | ★ | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 | | | | 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 | | | | 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量，基本面偏弱， | | ★ | | 但供给端事件扰动下，交易情绪仍偏强。 | | | | 焦炭开启第四轮提降，预计 1 月 1 日起执行。三轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态，但 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | ★ | | 环比基本持平，钢厂维持小幅补库。盘面快速 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | BEAT A ST 10 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | 10.65 1994 - 1 | 20 3 | 金银：会议纪要带来降息预期走高，反弹 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 盘面表现：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及交割月大逼仓致使资金涌入 共同催生了本轮的银铂钯"疯涨"行情。过热之后盘面尚在调整阶段。 ①美联储议息会议纪要公布。今日凌晨，美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月 会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在本次会议 下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。纪要同时显示，如果通胀 如预期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，准备金余额已 经下降到充足的水平，委员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应 。他们还同意取消对常备回购操作的总额限制。市场认为2026年或降息60个基点。 ②俄乌变数较多。据报道，当泽连斯基提议将15年期限延长至少一倍时，特朗普回应称"会 考虑一下"。泽连斯基表示，他认为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, as the beginning of China's 15th Five - Year Plan, with the global monetary easing expectation, the new Fed chairman taking office, and Trump's mid - term election approaching, the macro - environment is generally positive. The shortage of copper concentrates at the mine end, the anti - involution of the smelting industry, and the continuous siphoning of global copper inventories by the US at the spot end provide strong support for copper prices. The competition in the fourth industrial revolution between China and the US has brought a huge power gap, and the demand for green copper in photovoltaic and new energy vehicles is on the rise, leading to an expanding global refined copper supply - demand gap. The strategic value and price center of copper are steadily rising. It is recommended to hold copper long positions, use trailing stop - loss protection, be cautious about chasing high prices, and mainly try to go long on dips. Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level correction due to insufficient demand after the fading of macro - sentiment [2]. - In mid - 2026, when Powell steps down, the short - term macro - positive factors will be realized and the traditional off - season will begin, so copper may face high - level adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, strictly manage positions, and control risks. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, considering the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the copper market rebounded from the bottom at the beginning of the year due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the pre - heating of the Two Sessions in China. In February, the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the increasing overseas mine disturbances pushed copper prices up. In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper, the widening price difference between COMEX and LME, and the rumor of domestic smelter production cuts led to a sharp rise in copper prices, with hot money pouring into the market [5]. - In April, after the implementation of the copper tariff exemption, there was a rush to exit among long - position holders, and copper prices plunged. Subsequently, as Sino - US relations eased and the global economic recession concern weakened, copper prices oscillated and recovered. In June, due to the resurgence of the war in the Middle East and the continuous decline of LME copper inventories, copper prices rose against the seasonal trend [6]. - In July, Trump's new tariff threat caused copper prices to oscillate and fall back. In August, after the exemption of refined copper from the 50% tariff, COMEX copper prices plummeted, and the price difference between COMEX and LME narrowed sharply. In September, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut led to a rise in copper prices, but then they pulled back. In late September, the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg and the increasing expectation of a shortage of copper concentrates, along with other macro and micro factors, drove copper prices to a high after the National Day. From November to December, the overall macro - sentiment was positive, and copper prices continued to rise, reaching new highs at the end of the year [7][8]. Chapter 2: Macro Analysis 2.1 Global Economic Moderate Recovery and Asia - Pacific Geopolitical Conflict Risks - From 2025 to 2026, the global economy shows a trend of "overall slowdown in growth, differentiation among major economies, and moderate recovery in trade". The global economic growth rate is expected to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. Major economies such as the US, China, the Eurozone, and India have different economic growth trends and inflation situations. Central banks around the world have shifted their monetary policies from tightening to easing [11][12]. - The global situation is turbulent, and geopolitical risks are increasing. The military use of copper may increase due to the global arms race. In 2025, the geopolitical risk in the Asia - Pacific region has increased significantly. If the Taiwan Strait risk breaks out in 2026, copper prices may rise further due to supply security concerns and the explosion of military copper demand [13][14][18]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff TACO Review: Will Copper Tariffs Make a Comeback in 2026? - In 2025, Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource" and proposed a series of copper tariff policies, which had a significant impact on the global copper market. The implementation or non - implementation of these policies led to large fluctuations in copper prices and the price difference between COMEX and LME. Trump's tariff policies have reshaped the global copper trade flow, accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain, and increased the uncertainty of the market. In 2026 - 2027, the US may impose selective tariffs on refined copper imports from some countries [19][20][30]. 2.3 AI Bubble Concerns and the "Iron Chain of Ships" of US Tech Giants - In 2025, the growth of US copper consumption is mainly driven by grid transformation, the explosion of data centers, and the return of manufacturing industries. Data centers have become an important and rapidly growing area for copper consumption. However, there are concerns about the AI bubble, and the investment in AI in the US may face challenges such as unclear commercialization and over - dependence on a single company. In 2026, China is expected to start the era of AI application, which will strengthen the long - term demand for copper [32][34][38]. 2.3 The Fed's Powell's Final Act: Weaker Dollar, Stronger Copper Prices - In December 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The decision - making process showed internal differences, and the future policy path will depend on economic data. Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the possible candidates for the new Fed chairman have different stances on inflation, interest rates, and independence. The US economy shows signs of a slowdown in employment and a decline in inflation, and the dollar index is in a downward trend. There is a negative correlation between the dollar and copper prices, but attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level adjustment of copper prices in mid - 2026 [39][40][45]. 2.4 Global Macroeconomic Cycles and the 15th Five - Year Plan - Currently, the global economy is at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle since China's reform and opening - up. The theme of this Juglar cycle is the Sino - US chip war. The importance of copper as a key raw material in the fields of green energy transformation and AI competition is increasing. The start of the restocking cycle in China and the US will support the demand for copper. The 15th Five - Year Plan will promote China's economic transformation and upgrading, and copper's strategic value will continue to rise [50][51][53]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Intensified Global Competition for Copper Mine Resources and Chinese Copper Enterprises' Overseas Expansion - Due to geopolitical risks, resource protectionism, and other factors, the long - term capital expenditure in the global copper mining industry is insufficient, and the new supply is limited. Global copper mine reserves are mainly concentrated in countries such as Chile, Australia, and Peru. China's domestic copper reserves are relatively small, but Chinese enterprises have actively expanded overseas. In 2025, many global copper mines were affected by accidents, strikes, and other factors, resulting in a downward revision of production forecasts. In 2026, the global mainstream copper mine supply is expected to increase theoretically, but the overall supply situation remains tight [54][58][60]. 3.2 Deeply Inverted Smelter Processing Fees and the Industry's Call for Anti - Involution - In 2025, the global copper smelting capacity utilization rate remained high, but the copper concentrate processing fees continued to decline, reaching a new low. The smelting industry is facing "involution - style" competition. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association has called for measures to control capacity and resist unfair pricing. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [64][65][66]. 3.3 Smelters to Cut Capacity in 2026, Slowing the Growth of Refined Copper Supply - In 2025, the global refined copper production reached a record high. It is expected that there will be a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in the global refined copper market in 2026. In November 2025, China's copper smelting operation rate increased, and the refined copper production increased month - on - month. However, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased significantly. Affected by the reduction of smelter capacity and the decline in imports, the growth rate of refined copper supply in 2026 will slow down [70][71][75]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory, Tight Non - US Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, but the inventory in non - US regions was relatively tight. The US is expected to continue to siphon global copper inventories, and there are concerns that the US copper tariff may return. The non - US copper market may face a squeeze - out risk [76]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Power Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including AI and the development of the power industry, has led to a sharp increase in power demand, which in turn drives the demand for copper. The power industry is the most important area for copper consumption, accounting for about 45% of the total. China's new infrastructure construction and the development of renewable energy will greatly boost copper demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in the domestic power industry will increase by 6.78% year - on - year to 7.88 million tons in 2026, accounting for 47% of the total copper consumption [81][84][88]. 4.2 The Real Estate Market is at the Bottom, Urgently Needing to Stabilize - The real estate market is currently in a downturn, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area. The real estate stimulus policies have had limited effects, and the industry has dragged down the overall demand for copper. It is predicted that the copper consumption in the construction industry will decline by 11.59% year - on - year to 2.9 million tons in 2026, accounting for 17% of the total copper consumption [95][96]. 4.3 Stimulating Consumption and the Recovery of Exports: Household Appliance Consumption Maintains Resilience - The government has introduced policies to support the replacement of household appliances. The copper consumption in the household appliance industry is expected to maintain a certain growth rate, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 5.1% from 2021 to 2025. It is expected that the copper consumption in the household appliance industry will reach 2.32 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 6.42%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption [98][100]. 4.4 The New Energy Vehicle Industry is Booming, and Green Copper Demand is on the Rise - New energy vehicles have a much higher copper consumption per vehicle than traditional fuel vehicles. In 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in China continued to grow, and the penetration rate increased. In 2026, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be reformed, and the industry is expected to maintain high - speed development. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the transportation industry will reach 2.3 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 4.07%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption [101][102]. 4.5 The Industrial Machinery and Electronics Sectors Show Considerable Growth, and the Robot Industry Shines - The robot industry has developed rapidly in 2025, and copper is an essential key material for robots. Although the current copper consumption in the robot industry is relatively small, it has great growth potential. It is expected that the copper consumption in the machinery and electronics industry will reach 1.4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, accounting for 8% of the total copper consumption [105][106][107]. 4.6 The Return of Speculative Forces: The Bull Market of Copper is Irresistible - With the overseas copper supply disturbances and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the speculative enthusiasm in the copper market has rebounded. As of December 12, 2025, the net long positions of speculative funds in LME copper decreased slightly, while those in COMEX copper increased significantly. As of December 26, the trading volume and price of Shanghai copper both increased [108]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2026 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It is predicted that the global copper concentrate production in 2026 will be 23.38 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.65%. The global refined copper production will be 28.75 million tons, with the growth rate slowing down to 0.88%. The global refined copper demand will be 29.25 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.09%. The global refined copper supply - demand gap will expand to 500,000 tons. The domestic refined copper supply will be 16.55 million tons, and the demand will be 16.8 million tons, with the domestic supply - demand gap expanding to 250,000 tons [115]. Chapter 5: 2026 Annual Outlook - In 2026, the copper price operation logic has changed from "China - demand - led" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control". The global copper concentrate supply will remain tight, and the smelting industry will continue to resist involution, with an expected 10% capacity reduction. The US will continue to siphon global copper inventories, and the green copper demand will support the demand side [117][118]. - Although the long - term trend of copper is upward, the short - term volatility may increase. It is recommended to use trailing stop - loss for long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices. In mid - 2026, copper may face high - level adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Industrial customers should adjust their hedging strategies according to market conditions. The recommended price range for Shanghai copper in 2026 is 85,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 10,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [118][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, lithium carbonate will shift from oversupply to a tight - balance pattern. The significant decline in the industry's inventory coverage days will push up the price center. In the long - term, the peak of the current cycle's production cycle has passed, and the support for energy storage from countries around the world strengthens optimistic expectations, leading to strong speculative demand in the market. However, due to the high supply elasticity, the price increase will be tortuous. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 90,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [2][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. As of December 25, LC2605 closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, a 59% increase from the beginning of the year. The quotes of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were 115,000 yuan/ton and 113,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 52% and 55% from the beginning of the year [6]. - In the first quarter, pre - Spring Festival restocking by downstream and the advancement of demand due to tariff implementation led to a tight spot market. After the Spring Festival, the early resumption of work by leading manufacturers and slow downstream resumption put pressure on the market. In the second quarter, the price dropped rapidly due to the off - season of terminal demand and cost collapse. In the third quarter, the price fluctuated sharply. In the fourth quarter, the price trended upwards due to supply growth being slower than demand growth and the continuous destocking of total inventory [6][7]. 3.2 Demand Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In 2025, from January to October, global new energy vehicle sales reached 17.78 million, a 28.1% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 22.7%. The Chinese market maintained growth, with a penetration rate of 46.7%. The European market showed an increasing penetration rate, while the North American market was affected by subsidy withdrawal, with a slowdown in growth [11]. - In 2026, the European new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain high growth, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 30%. The US market will experience a painful period of policy withdrawal and demand adjustment, with an expected sales decline of 10% - 20% and a penetration rate within 10%. The Chinese market is expected to slow down in growth but optimize in structure, with the penetration rate expected to exceed 60% [15][20][29]. 3.2.2 Energy Storage Market - In 2025, the global energy storage market experienced explosive growth, with an expected annual installed capacity demand of 329GWh, an 87% year - on - year increase. The expected compound growth rate from 2025 - 2027 is 86% [30]. - In 2026, the domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 300GWh. The US and European markets also have strong growth potential, and emerging markets such as the Middle East are also growing rapidly [35][38][39]. 3.2.3 Battery Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the global lithium - battery shipments exceeded 1.2TWh, a 60% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the shipments in 2025 will exceed 1.7TWh [43]. - In 2026, the total demand for global power and energy - storage batteries is expected to reach 2600 - 2700GWh, a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The demand for energy - storage batteries will grow faster than that of power batteries [46]. 3.2.4 Cathode Materials - In the first three quarters of 2025, the shipments of Chinese cathode materials were expected to be 3.5 million tons, a 53% year - on - year increase. Lithium iron phosphate led the growth, with shipments of 2.575 million tons, a 60.8% year - on - year increase. Ternary materials also increased by 20% [52]. - In 2026, lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue high - growth, with an expected output of 5.8 million tons, a 50% increase from 2025. The demand for high - nickel ternary materials and precursors will also increase [53][60]. 3.3 Supply Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Lithium Ore Supply - In 2026, Australian mines are expected to have a 15% year - on - year output increase to 503,000 tons LCE. African mines will benefit from the recovery of lithium prices, and South American salt lakes also have certain production increases. Domestic lithium ore supply is expected to be about 100,000 tons LCE, and the output of domestic salt - lake lithium extraction is expected to be about 228,000 tons LCE [76][78][79]. 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Supply - In 2026, new lithium carbonate production capacity will be significantly slowed down, with only 45,000 tons of new capacity to be put into production, mainly in the second half of the year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative domestic lithium carbonate output reached 871,200 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase [81][82]. 3.3.3 Cost and Profit - As of December 19, the average production cost of lithium carbonate was 84,551 yuan/ton. The industry profit was 15,830 yuan/ton. The cost mainly comes from raw material procurement, accounting for over 85% of the production cost [85]. 3.4 Import, Export, and Inventory 3.4.1 Import and Export - In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was about 22,055 tons, a 8% month - on - month decrease and a 15% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 219,000 tons, a 5.8% year - on - year increase [92]. 3.4.2 Inventory - As of December 24, the sample inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,773 tons. The inventory structure has improved, with upstream inventory gradually transferred to downstream and intermediate links. In 2026, attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking [96].