| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，钢材整体库存偏高，铁 水高企下矛盾有上升风险，偏弱运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 整体需求仍然偏弱，库存水平偏高，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，短期区间偏弱运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面中性偏强。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观 | | ★ | | 避险情绪降温，盘面震荡偏强运行。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 焦炭现货第二轮提涨延迟，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产 量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间偏弱运行。 | | ★ | | | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 煤矿整体产量有回升预期，进口预计维持高位，供应边际将继续改善。铁水产量绝对水 平较高， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/10/10 截至 9 月 30 日，硅锰连续合约收盘价 5628 元/吨，硅铁连续合约收盘价 5310 元/吨，对应历史分位值分别为 9.6%、13.7%，当前价格较上半年低点的下 行空间有限，十月份仍需关注煤炭价格变动以及宏观情绪变化。操作上建议短 期空仓观望为主，中期关注商品季节性下跌后逢低做多的机会。价格方面，硅 锰主力合约价格参考区间 5400-7000 元/吨，硅铁主力合约价格参考区间 5100- 6600 元/吨。 风险与关注：反内卷、会议窗口期、美联储降息、粗钢压减政策、澳矿 发运、南非限制出口、煤矿复产、电力改革等。 K 2025 年黑色商品四季度策略报告 铁合金 四季度价格或前低后高，关注合金低估值区间 黑色研究团队 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 从国内铁合金基本面来看，目前硅锰日均产量约为 3 万吨，硅铁日均产量 约为 1.65 万吨，均处于同期高位。表内库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110. Be cautious about the price decline caused by steel mills' production cuts due to negative feedback from the bottom - up stage, which may occur from late October to early November. After mid - November, prices may be relatively strong as steel enterprises start winter storage [3][55]. - The global iron ore supply is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, while the demand is expected to decrease by about 8.62 million tons [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Insufficient Domestic Demand and Limited External Demand 1.1 Domestic Demand: Weak Steel Demand and Decrease in Hot Metal Production in the Fourth Quarter - Downstream demand shows that building material demand is at a low level, plate demand is at a high level in the same period and remains resilient, and non - five major steel products perform moderately. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year steel demand decreased slightly by 1.29%, and the growth rates of the three major investments continued to decline in August. In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in domestic steel demand [11]. - In the third quarter, the long - process profit was acceptable, and steel enterprises' production enthusiasm was high. The addition of scrap steel increased, and the output of five major steel products increased year - on - year. As raw material prices strengthened, the cost - effectiveness of hot metal compared with scrap steel decreased. According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated daily average hot metal output in the third quarter was 2.4005 million tons, with a quarterly total of 221 million tons. The estimated hot metal output in the fourth quarter is 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 7.02 million tons in iron ore demand. The decline in hot metal production depends more on steel enterprises' profit adjustment, and production cuts may occur after November [19][20]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Operating at a Low Level in the Range with a Decrease Quarter - on - Quarter - With the slowdown of inflation in major overseas economies and the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, the economic vitality of major economies has been somewhat boosted. However, the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, and the increase in overseas steel demand is limited [21]. - The steel production of countries outside China is generally stable. Japan and South Korea are gradually reducing their steel production capacity to deal with domestic over - capacity, and their pig iron production remains at a low level. European iron ore demand is generally weak. India's steel production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and pig iron production in Southeast Asia is also growing at a high rate. The total pig iron production outside China is expected to be 104 million tons in the fourth quarter, a decrease of about 1 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 1.6 million tons in iron ore demand [29][33]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 7.02 million tons in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 1.6 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [34][35]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - No Increment Seen 2.1 Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil: Restocking Drives Shipping Volume to Surge in the Second Half - In Australia, the total iron ore shipping volume of the three major mines in the third quarter was 202 million tons, and it is expected to be about 204 million tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2 million tons compared with the previous quarter. In Brazil, Vale's shipping volume in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the increase in the fourth quarter is limited, with a total shipping volume of 75 million tons, a decrease of 3.15 million tons compared with the previous quarter. Overall, the total iron ore shipping volume of the four major mines in the fourth quarter will decrease by about 1.05 million tons compared with the previous quarter, but the shipping volume will increase in December due to winter storage restocking by domestic steel mills [38]. 2.2 Non - Mainstream Overseas Mines and Domestic Mines: Constrained by Costs and Generally Stable - In the third quarter, the iron ore price strengthened, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines was strong. In the fourth quarter, if domestic steel mills maintain the current production rhythm, the downward pressure on the ore price is relatively small, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines can still remain at a high level. If domestic steel enterprises cut production due to losses or policy requirements, the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines may decrease slightly. It is estimated that the shipping volume will be 134 million tons, a decrease of about 5 million tons compared with the previous quarter. - For domestic mines, the production of iron ore concentrate decreased slightly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. Due to the same cost constraints as non - mainstream mines, the production is proportional to the price. It is estimated that the production of iron ore concentrate in the fourth quarter will be about 61.35 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous quarter [43]. 2.3 Supply Side Summary - The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [3][46]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Double Increase in Inventory May Boost Ore Price - In terms of ports, the inventory of 45 ports at the end of the third quarter was 140 million tons, showing a slight inventory build - up in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is statically neutral to slightly loose, and the inventory may show an overall build - up. - For steel mills, especially in the second half of the fourth quarter, they will gradually enter the stage of restocking imported ore, which will continuously support the ore price [51]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary - Supply: The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Demand: The global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Inventory: Port inventory may show an overall build - up, while steel mills' restocking of imported ore in the second half of the fourth quarter will support the ore price. Overall, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore in the fourth quarter is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110 [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].

中辉期货研究所 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 作者：张清 投资咨询： Z0019679 2025 年 10 月 10 日 中辉期货研究 2025 商品四季度报告 年 碳酸锂 锂价中枢上移，关注供应端变数 需求端：全球新能源汽车增长稳定，国内受 26 年购置税减免退坡的预期 影响以及新车型的发布，四季度车企或将加速排产，比亚迪、特斯拉等头部 企业产能利用率超 90%。美国市场景气度较差，欧洲市场电动化趋势仍在， 混动和插混同比增速较快，纯电转型仍需技术突破和基建完善。储能需求迎 来爆发式增长，中欧美以及中东等新兴市场加速能源转型，各国政府都提供 了相关政策的支持。国内新增备案项目 392GWh 中 80%需在四季度完成电池交 付，同时海外订单饱满，储能对碳酸锂需求的占比有望持续提升。 综合来看，2025 年碳酸锂供应过剩幅度在 18.8 万吨，四季度或将维持 供需双增的局面。供应端新产能投放基本符合预期，锂资源供应依旧充分， 尤其是国内产量的释放速度较快。终端需求方面，国内新能源汽车在政策的 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国领导人在社交媒体称将在不久后与中方会面，大豆会是主要议题，这点燃了美 | | | | 国大豆农民对出口销售的期待。国内方面，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 22.38 万吨，较 | | 豆粕 | | 前一交易日增 18.57 万吨，开机方面，今日全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 44.47%， | | ★ | 短线震荡 | 较前一日下降 10.71%。隔夜豆粕盘中冲高回落。美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存， | | | | 以及巴西大豆种植天气干旱，多空因素交织下，有震荡整理要求，在中美谈判开启 | | | | 前，豆粕调整空间有限。关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 印尼政府考虑设定汽油中的生物乙醇的强制含量标准为 10%，试图扩大使用由棕榈 | | | | 油和甘蔗制 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | PING | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 111 1997 I | 1 | | 1 1 3 7 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | G2 关系意外遇冷，日本局势混乱，中东停火或有阻碍。短期避险情绪再次回升。黄 | | 黄金 | 买入持有 | 金短线长线可继续买入。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央 | | ★★ | | 行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 地缘或引发需求预期危机，但是伦敦白银逼空风险积聚，短期白银波动较大。逻辑 | | 白银 | 回调做多 | 上全球政策刺激，白银需求坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等 | | ★★ | | 品种波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等企稳做多，长线长期持有 | | | | 特朗普关税威胁升级，中美关系紧张，短期铜多头踩踏出逃，铜价高位回撤，阶段 | | 铜 | 高位回撤 | 回调压力较大，短期关注 8 万关口支撑，如果跌破可能进一步测试 60 日均线支撑， | | ★ | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish MTO [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The supply of most energy and chemical products is expected to be in a relatively loose state, and under the influence of macro - factors such as US tariff policies and the supply - demand relationship, most product prices are under downward pressure. Some products may have short - term rebounds or limited decline space due to factors such as low valuations and seasonal demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On October 10, international oil prices fell significantly. WTI dropped 4.24%, Brent dropped 3.82%, and SC dropped 0.53% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Trump's action released macro - risks, and the oil price rebounded after a decline. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price is likely to be suppressed below $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November. US oil rigs decreased, and Russian exports from the Baltic Sea accounted for 41% of its seaborne exports. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventories increased, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is gradually surplus, and pay attention to the shale oil break - even point around $60. In the short - term, the trend is still weak. Hold short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the range of [435 - 455] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price center moved down, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price, putting pressure on the upper side of LPG [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and LPG mainly follows the oil price. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4000 - 4100] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7037 yuan/ton (- 40) [18] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates weakly following the cost. The supply is in a loose pattern, and although the absolute price is undervalued, the upward driving force is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [6850 - 7050] [19] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 6722 yuan/ton (- 23) [23] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it runs weakly following the cost. After the holiday, the inventory accumulated, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with high destocking pressure [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the support level below, with the range of [6600 - 6800] [24] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4735 yuan/ton (- 34) [27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, and after the holiday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulated. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline space of the spot is limited due to high pre - sales [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PX spot was 6618 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6504 (- 82) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing the load, and the demand - side PTA start - up is slightly rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Affected by the US tariff policy, the overnight crude oil dropped significantly [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, sell call options, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for PX511 is [6380 - 6510] [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PTA in East China was 4485 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4534 (- 50) yuan/ton [35] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up load increases, and the demand - side has the expectation of the "Silver October" consumption season. The supply - demand in September is in a tight balance and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, it follows the cost fluctuation [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for TA01 is [4450 - 4535] [37] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4190 (- 24) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4185 (- 50) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are increasing the load, overseas devices change little. The terminal demand is slightly improved, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. Affected by the US tariff policy, the international crude oil price dropped [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline and reach the bottom at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for EG01 is [4050 - 4135] [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2245 (+ 20) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2307 (+ 17) yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the supply pressure is large, the demand is slightly improved, the social inventory accumulates again, and the cost support stabilizes [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Gradually close short positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices. The range for MA01 is [2260 - 2340] [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1540 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1597 (- 12) yuan/ton [49] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, the inventory accumulates, and the cost has some support [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea price fluctuates weakly. Hold short positions, but pay attention to the opportunity of lightly going long at low prices in the long - term. The range for UR601 is [1550 - 1590] [52] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The macro - risk rises, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price drops, but the demand for winter gas storage provides some support [6] Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish. The cost - end oil price weakens, the supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [6] Glass - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. Some production lines are ignited, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment in the peak season needs attention [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close the short position of the alkali - glass spread, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. After the holiday, the inventory in the factory increases, the supply is expected to be loose, and the industry hedges at high prices [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry hedges at high prices, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6]