1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish and Volatile**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton [1][10][13] - **Short - term Volatile**: Rapeseed meal [1] - **Potential to Stop Falling in the Short - term**: Palm oil [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Rebound with Pressure**: Red dates [1] - **Short - term Rebound**: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish and volatile. Brazilian planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. However, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the Sino - US soybean purchase agreement limits the upside space of far - month contracts [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term volatile. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. Far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal weather premium [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Potentially stop falling in the short - term. Although the supply - demand is weak in the short - term, the expectation of the减产 season and the postponement of the EU Zero - Deforestation Act implementation may lead to a price rebound. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish and volatile. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and the optimistic sentiment of US biodiesel and the dry planting weather in Brazil support the price [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import in November, with a strong fundamental situation [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The US cotton harvest is near the end, and the market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the cash flow of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still pressure from high inventory and hedging [1]. - **Red Dates**: Rebound with pressure. The new season's supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is in a loose pattern. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude in general [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the Q4 price is expected to fluctuate around the industry's average cash - flow cost. Short - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on for near - month contracts, and low - buying opportunities for far - month contracts after the pressure is released [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.1 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.97 million tons; and soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.17 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3123.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan or 0.51% [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is in a loose pattern in the short - term, and the spot basis is under pressure. The one - time price may follow the market [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan or 1.18% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2519.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.9 yuan or 1.48% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory was 66.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 million tons [8]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8652 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price was 8703 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan or 0.32% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price may stop falling. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Supply**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87% [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream cotton spot trading has little change, and the spring - summer orders of cotton cloth have increased slightly. The export of textile and clothing in October was under pressure, but it is expected to improve slightly in the last two months of Q4 [12]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14936 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.27% [10]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Supply**: The new season's output is expected to be 50 - 60 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm for new - season raw materials has decreased [14]. - **Price**: The purchase prices in different regions are relatively stable, such as 5.3 - 6.3 yuan/kg in Aksu [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Supply**: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress was 65.67%. The supply pressure will be gradually released after December. The number of newborn piglets in October increased, and the number of breeding sows decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream slaughter volume increased, and the cold - storage inventory was passively increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail catering consumption improved slightly [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2601 closed at 11495 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.09% [16].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 | | 原油 | | 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 沙特上调 CP 合同价，盘面有所计价，短期回调压力上升。成本端原油受 | | | | 俄乌地缘扰动，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价， | | LPG ★ | 谨慎看空 | 但盘面已计价；供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：上行动力 | | | | 不足，买入看跌期权。 | | | | 现货涨价，盘面转为升水结构，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term trading strategies**: For soymeal, short - term trading is expected to be bullish with limited upside for the main contract; rapeseed meal will be in short - term oscillation; palm oil may stop falling in stages; soybean oil will experience short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil is short - term bullish; cotton is cautiously bullish; jujube will face pressure in rebound; and live pigs will have a short - term rebound [1]. - **Long - term trends**: For rapeseed meal, the long - term supply - demand situation is strong; for jujube, a bearish attitude is recommended in the long - run under the loose supply - demand pattern; for live pigs, Q4 will likely see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [1][14][16]. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Market conditions**: The Brazilian planting progress is behind last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic soymeal and soybean inventories are high, but the sales pressure on oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved [1]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3105.43 yuan/ton, up 8.57 yuan (0.28%) [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 942.5 million tons, a decrease of 50.10 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714.99 million tons, a decrease of 32.72 million tons (4.38%) from last week. The soymeal inventory was 115.15 million tons, an increase of 15.86 million tons (15.97%) from last week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market conditions**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero crushing. The short - term supply is driven by the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the near - term port inventory is high [1][6]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2452 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2557.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan (-0.37%) [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons from last week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market conditions**: The supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The EU's delay in implementing the deforestation - free law and floods in Southeast Asia have raised expectations of a production - reduction season. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November [7][8]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons (2.13%) from last week [7]. - **Export data**: From November 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased compared to the same period in October [7]. Cotton - **Market conditions**: US cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and the supply - side story is weakening. The market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. In China, the cash - flow of downstream spinning enterprises has improved, and the cotton price has rebounded slightly, but it faces high - inventory and hedging pressure [9][12]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13725 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (0.62%) from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14896 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.03%) [9]. - **Inventory data**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased to 417.94 million tons, higher than the same period [9]. Jujube - **Market conditions**: The new jujube production is clear, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. The premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been mostly squeezed out [14]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9025 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-1.37%) from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common jujube was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged [13]. - **Inventory data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week [14]. Live Pigs - **Market conditions**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. The near - month contracts are affected by position - limit approaching, and the short - term spot - futures prices have diverged. The Q4 will see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [16]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) closed at 11465 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-1.04%) from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.09%) [15]. - **Inventory and sales data**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased significantly. The number of fertile sows decreased [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - **Nickel**: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - **Lithium carbonate**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - **Basic Logic**: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3110 | 17 | 热卷01 | 3302 | d | | 螺纹05 | 3117 | 12 | 热卷05 | 3288 | 7 | | 螺纹10 | 3154 | 10 | 热卷10 | 3290 | 8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2980 | 10 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3150 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3220 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3250 | 1 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3290 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3290 | 20 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3320 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3490 | 20 | 热卷： 广州 | 3320 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3230 | 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3310 | -20 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term outlook**: - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish and volatile, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term consolidation, with long - term supply - demand fundamentals being strong, and there are opportunities to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Weak consolidation in the short term, and the recent rise is considered a rebound, with the option to gradually take profits [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with opportunities to go long after adjustment and stabilization [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term prices expected to test the 13700 - 13800 level and long - term opportunities for a gentle rebound after supply pressure eases [1]. - **Red Dates**: Rebound under pressure, with a generally bearish attitude in the long run, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound, with opportunities to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and long on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 942500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50100 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32720 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 115150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15860 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: South American planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic supply is abundant, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved, and short - term prices are bullish and volatile [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 10 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 10 tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. The domestic spot market has slow - moving sales and high inventory pressure. The short - term trend is consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 667100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13900 tons. The export data from November 1 - 25 was weak, but the decline was slightly reduced compared to the first 20 days [7][8]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the recent rise is a rebound. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November, and it is advisable to consider taking profits [1][8]. Cotton - **Market data**: In the international market, the US new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 1237000 tons have been inspected; India's new cotton daily listing volume is 16000 - 20000 tons; Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%. In the domestic market, the new cotton picking is almost completed, with a public inspection volume of over 3.7 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side narrative space is narrowing, and the market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestic downstream cash flow has improved, but high inventory and hedging pressure limit the upward space [1][12]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The current inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [13]. - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation. The short - term trend is a rebound under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress is 65.67%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844620, and the slaughter volume is 11965300 [15][16]. - **Analysis**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. Near - month contracts have short - term rebound opportunities, and attention should be paid to short - selling on rebounds and long - buying on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1][16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据仍支持降息，俄乌问题再次生变，日元反复不确定较多，黄金有支撑。建 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持 | | ★ | | 续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 高弹性白银 2025 年大涨幅度超 70%，短期特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准，均对白银有 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 利。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币 | | ★ | | | | | | 投放提供流动性。12000 附近支撑较强。长线多单持有 | | 铜 | | 宏观暖风频吹，美联储 12 月降息概率升至 85%，国内 12 月初政治局会议临近，市 | | | 长线持有 | 场对政策刺激预期走高，国内淡季去库，铜价格中枢稳步上移，建议回调逢低试多， | | ★ | | 中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌宽 | | 锌 | 承压 | 幅震荡，受 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比小幅下降，变化不大；库存环比下降，杭州地区库存绝对水平仍然 | | ★ | 区间运行 | 较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比再降，与去年同期相近，钢厂主动减限产意愿较 | | | | 低。短期维持缺少强驱动，或区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表需略降，库存变化不大，为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢 | | ★ | | 厂减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其 | | 铁矿石 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 落地情况。钢厂去库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦煤价格持续走弱，提涨落地后焦企利润明显改善，多数维持正常生产，市场提降预期 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 进一步增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，但整体维持一定韧性，部分钢厂短期存 | | | | 在检修计划。价格下行至前期低点，短期或有反复，谨慎操作。 | | | | 国内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, leading to a weakening of oil prices. The supply of crude oil is in surplus during the off - season, and the pressure on oil prices is increasing. For various energy - related products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [1][9]. - For different chemical products, their market conditions vary. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost fluctuations and macro - policies [1][23]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. Brent rose 0.53%, and SC rose 0.52%. As of November 26, the US crude oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 [7][8]. - **Basic logic**: In the off - season, crude oil supply is in surplus, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation has also put downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [445 - 455] [11]. LPG - **Market performance**: On November 27, the PG main contract closed at 4269 yuan/ton, up 0.23% month - on - month. The downstream chemical demand has certain resilience, and the inventory has improved [12][13]. - **Basic logic**: The price trend is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and the oil price trend is downward. The downstream chemical demand has support, but the recent high basis indicates over - valuation of the futures price [14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Do not chase the rise. Go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [17][18]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic production has seasonally recovered, and the supply is still sufficient. The downstream start - up rate has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, and the demand support is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium - term, and the cost support is weak [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of L [6650 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [21][22]. - **Basic logic**: The cost - end is weak, and the upper - middle - stream inventory is at a high level. The internal and external demand support is insufficient, and there is a high pressure on inventory reduction in the future. The oil price may continue to decline in the medium - term [23]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis was repaired, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from a high level [24][25]. - **Basic logic**: In the short - term, the trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the social inventory remains high. However, the low valuation provides support, and the decline space of the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position transfer [26]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [26]. PTA - **Market performance**: The processing fee is generally low, and the supply - side pressure has been alleviated. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the cost - end PX may follow the decline of crude oil [27][28]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease due to low processing fees and high - intensity device maintenance. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4680] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The domestic start - up load has continued to decline, and the overseas device load has slightly increased. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [29][30]. - **Basic logic**: The domestic start - up load is decreasing, and new device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the weaving orders are slightly weakening [30]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3820 - 3880] [31]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The Taicang spot price has stabilized, and the port basis has slightly strengthened. The inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the past five years [34]. - **Basic logic**: The domestic and overseas device loads have increased, and the supply pressure is large. The demand has improved month - on - month, and the cost - end has weak support. The fundamentals remain weak [34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market performance**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stopped falling, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is cold domestically and hot overseas [37][38]. - **Basic logic**: The supply pressure is still high before the gas - head enterprises' maintenance in December. The domestic agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is relatively good. The inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level [38][39]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1635 - 1675] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On November 26, the NG main contract closed at 4.558 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.72% month - on - month [42][43]. - **Basic logic**: The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has put downward pressure on gas prices, but the demand has entered the consumption peak season, providing certain support [44]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market performance**: On November 27, the BU main contract closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month. The profit has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [47][48]. - **Basic logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - end crude oil. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand has increased slightly this week [49]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. Glass - **Market performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the demand is weak [52][53]. - **Basic logic**: The daily melting volume has decreased and remains at 15.82 tons. The demand support is insufficient due to the weak real - estate market [54]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is in a consolidation state [55]. - **Basic logic**: Some devices have been overhauled or reduced production, and the demand has decreased. The supply will remain in a loose pattern in the long - term [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term [6].