1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Market Outlook**: Different futures varieties have diverse short - term trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to be range - bound, rapeseed meal may decline in the short - term, palm oil will be in a short - term consolidation phase, soybean oil will experience short - term adjustments, rapeseed oil will be weak in the short - term, cotton will have a short - term correction, red dates may have a short - term rebound, and live pigs may also have a short - term rebound [1]. - **Key Influencing Factors**: Multiple factors affect the market, including import and export data, production and inventory changes, international policies, seasonal factors, and trade relations [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3,207.71 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [1][2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the previous week; 125 oil mills had a soybean inventory of 710.25 million tons, an increase of 55.81 million tons from the previous week, and a soybean meal inventory of 117.02 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Before the release of the January USDA report, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The report may lower US soybean export data, leading to an expected increase in ending stocks, which could put downward pressure on US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2,583.16 yuan/ton, up 1.87% [1][4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 2, the coastal area's main oil mills had a rapeseed inventory of 0 million tons, a rapeseed meal inventory of 0 million tons, and an unexecuted contract of 0 million tons, all remaining unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Rapeseed meal showed some resistance to decline compared to soybean meal, but the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister dampened market sentiment, causing a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the January USDA report, Australian seed crushing and import policies, and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade. If the China - Canada negotiations fail, there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day; the national average price was 8,648 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [1][7]. - **Inventory and Production**: As of January 2, 2026, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons from the previous week. In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased, and in January 2026, the production decreased significantly, while the export volume increased [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the negative factors in the soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets, palm oil rose and then fell. It is expected to consolidate in the next two days. Due to the arrival of the production - reduction season and the inventory - building demand for India's Ramadan Festival, there may be opportunities to go long when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Performance**: The main contract CF2605 closed at 14,740 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from the previous day; the spot price CCIndex (3218B) was 15,992 yuan/ton, up 1.32% [1][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's MSP acquisition is accelerating, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 31.2%. Domestically, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is still resilient, but spinning mill profits are deteriorating, and external supply inflows may suppress the market [10][11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The ICE market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. In the short - term, there is a need for adjustment in the domestic market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and opportunities to go long on dips [1][12]. Red Dates - **Price Performance**: The main contract CJ2605 closed at 9,075 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day; the spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [1][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production areas is over, market supply has increased, and it is the winter consumption season. However, high inventory is still a major pressure on price increases [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price's tail - end rally has ended. The market may be volatile. In general, a bearish attitude is recommended, but short - term rebound opportunities should be noted [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Price Performance**: The main contract LH2603 closed at 11,720 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,540 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [1][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the January slaughter plan of sample enterprises has decreased, but the supply pressure will still be high at the end of January and in February. The demand has decreased due to the end of the stock - building season, and the next demand peak will be before the Spring Festival [16][17]. - **Market Outlook**: In mid - to early January, the market is expected to be weak in both supply and demand. The spot price may rebound due to second - fattening, but the overall outlook for the post - festival period is not optimistic. For different contracts, different strategies are recommended, such as focusing on the LH2603 contract's spot performance, being bearish on the LH2605 contract, and remaining on the sidelines for the LH2609 and LH2611 contracts [1][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PTA, methanol [29][35] - **Bearish with Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, LNG, asphalt, glass [1][13][18][44][48][53] - **Bearish with Consolidation**: PVC, soda ash [26][57] - **Oscillating**: Urea [40] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol [32] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price rebounds due to Middle East geopolitical disturbances, but medium - to long - term prices are pressured by supply surplus [1][10] - **LPG**: The price rebounds due to cost - side support, but in the long run, it is pressured by the oversupply of upstream crude oil [13][17] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound, but there is still pressure to destock [18][21] - **PP**: The high - level maintenance in the short term eases the supply pressure, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22][25] - **PVC**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulates rapidly, and there is a risk of short - term correction [26][28] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [29][31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to short on rebounds [32][34] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the rebound height may be limited [35][37] - **Urea**: It oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the changes in port collection and exports [40][41] - **LNG**: The supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure [44][47] - **Asphalt**: Attention should be paid to the import situation of raw materials, and the price still has room to compress [48][52] - **Glass**: The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [53][56] - **Soda Ash**: The demand weakens, and the rebound is difficult to be sustainable [57][60] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 3.16%, Brent up 3.39%, and SC down 1.60% [9] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term price is affected by geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the inventory is accelerating to accumulate [10] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, and Indian fuel consumption has reached a record high. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [415 - 435] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 8, the PG main contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [15] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, which supported the gas price in the short term. The medium - to long - term price is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has resilience [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long run, the price has room to compress. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [17] 3.3 L - **Futures and Spot Market**: The L05 basis is - 108 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is - 37 yuan/ton [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased. The upstream and mid - stream have started to accumulate inventory. The parking ratio has risen to 13%, and the weighted gross profit has been compressed [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [21] 3.4 PP - **Futures and Spot Market**: The PP05 basis is - 145 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is - 52 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory has accumulated, and the high - level maintenance will be maintained in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio has risen to 22% [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [25] 3.5 PVC - **Futures and Spot Market**: The V05 basis is - 255 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is - 137 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has accumulated rapidly. The domestic start - up has increased to 80%, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support has strengthened [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4900] [28] 3.6 PTA - **Futures and Spot Market**: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 13 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation has improved, and the processing fee and profit have increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy TA05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5030 - 5110] [31] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Futures and Spot Market**: The EG05 basis is - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread is - 93 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract closing price is at a low valuation. The domestic start - up load has increased, and the overseas device maintenance has increased. The downstream demand is good but expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [34] 3.8 Methanol - **Futures and Spot Market**: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, and the East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread have strengthened [37] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up loads have increased. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand has weakened slightly [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy methanol 05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2210 - 2250] [39] 3.9 Urea - **Futures and Spot Market**: The urea main contract closed at 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis is - 39 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January, and the demand has weakened recently. The social inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [43] 3.10 LNG - **Market Review**: On January 7, the NG main contract closed at 3.525 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 5.22% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term rebound is due to an accident in a US energy company. The supply is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.263 - 3.695] [47] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 8, the BU main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [49] - **Basic Logic**: The South American geopolitics has affected the raw material supply. The production has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The inventory has increased [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] 3.12 Glass - **Futures and Spot Market**: The FG05 basis is - 143 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread is - 86 yuan/ton [55] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline. The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [56] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Futures and Spot Market**: The SA05 basis is - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread is - 66 yuan/ton [59] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened. The restart of the device has increased, and the long - term supply is loose [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1180 - 1230] [60]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅回升，需求回落较明显，库存出现增加，进入累库阶段。目前炼钢利润尚 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 可，铁水产量环比上升。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，国内政策驱动不强，总体维持区间运 行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 | | ★ | | 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再增。钢厂按需补库。外矿发货冲量结束后明显缩量，冬储补库叠 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 加高炉复产，矿价坚挺。 | | | | 焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场对第五轮提降存分歧。多轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态， | | 焦炭 ★★ | 看空 | 但亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量 环比增加，但下游补库积极性一般，按需采购为主。短期市场情绪回落，预计维持震荡 | | | | 偏弱运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 假期过后，前期停产煤矿开始陆续复产，供应量环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding. ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Nickel: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment. ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals: Long - term and short - term factors are intertwined. The long - term logic for gold and silver is to go long, but short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as index rebalancing, margin hikes, and resource scarcity [1][2][4]. - Copper: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. In the long term, it is optimistic due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][6][7]. - Zinc: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises are advised to arrange short - hedging [1][9][10]. - Aluminum: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory [1][13][14]. - Nickel: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate: It is in a high - level adjustment. Long - positions can take profits gradually on rallies [1][20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market performance**: Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels. SHFE gold decreased by 0.10% to 997.94, COMEX gold increased by 0.47% to 4488. SHFE silver decreased by 4.35% to 18450, COMEX silver decreased by 1.65% to 77 [2]. - **Influencing factors**: China's central bank continues to purchase gold. US employment data is mixed, and the service industry PMI is rising. The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may cause selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short - term support for silver is at 18000, and for gold is at 990. In 2026, the support for precious metals remains strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market performance**: Copper is oscillating at high levels. The closing price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 1.61% to 100230 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industry logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight. The production of some mines is affected. The domestic electrolytic copper output in December is high, but it is expected to decline in January. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [98500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market performance**: Zinc is falling back in oscillation. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 1.02% to 23800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined. The production of refined zinc in December decreased. The demand in some traditional fields is weak, but new - energy demand is growing [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises should arrange short - hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [23500, 24000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3100, 3200] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum prices are falling back under pressure. The closing price of LME aluminum decreased by 0.41% to 3071 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 2.61% to 23725 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry logic**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [23000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - **Market performance**: Nickel prices are falling back. The closing price of LME nickel decreased by 2.69% to 17180 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 7.64% to 136440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry logic**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, hitting a new high during the session, and the gains narrowed at the end [19]. - **Industry logic**: The weekly output has increased slightly. The downstream demand provides support, but the production of some downstream factories is decreasing [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is operating at a high level in the range of [135000 - 150000] [21].

| 品种 | | | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹供需总体体现季节性淡季特征，库存继续正常去化，已处于较低水平。目前供需层 | | 螺纹钢 | | | | 谨慎看多 | | ★ | | 面矛盾有限，国内政策驱动不强，但股市、商品整体情绪较强，为黑色带来阶段性提振。 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 | | | | | | 热卷 | | | 谨慎看多 | 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，短期市场情绪偏暖带来提振。 | | ★ | | | | | | 铁矿石 | | | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再增。钢厂按需补库。外矿发货冲量结束后明显缩量，冬储补库叠 | | ★ | | | | 加高炉复产，矿价坚挺。 | | 焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场预计开启第五轮提降。多轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态， | | | | | | 焦炭 | 但亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比基本持平。从需求来看，铁水 | | | | | 偏强运行。 | | | | | | 假期过后，前期停 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating bullish [1] - **PX/PTA**: Bullish [2] - **MEG (Ethylene Glycol)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [4] - **Natural Gas**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Asphalt**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [7] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus dominates, geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but long - term pressure exists due to off - season supply surplus and OPEC+ expansion [1][8][10] - **LPG**: Follows the decline in oil price, with supply and demand showing some resilience [1][13] - **L**: Short - term market sentiment drives, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [1][18] - **PP**: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [1][21] - **PVC**: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][29] - **MEG**: Expectations are weak, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2][32] - **Methanol**: Supply - demand expectations improve, focus on port de - stocking speed [3][35] - **Urea**: Cost support and export window not closed, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [4][40] - **Natural Gas**: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [7][45] - **Asphalt**: Pay attention to raw material imports, price has compression space but with increasing support [7][48] - **Glass**: Cold repair expectations support, low - level rebound [7][53] - **Soda Ash**: Demand weakens, returns to weakness [7][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.59% [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cannot change the supply surplus situation. Core driver is off - season supply surplus, and inventory is accumulating [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, buy call options for risk control. Focus on SC in the range of [410 - 420] [12] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 7, the PG main contract closed at 4229 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [15] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, short - term boost, long - term follows oil price. Supply and demand show some resilience [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on PG in the range of [4150 - 4250] [17] L - **Market Review**: L05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [18] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term expectations drive the market, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [6500 - 6750] [20] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [22] - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6550] [24] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [26] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 contract price and related data changes [29] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is inventory accumulation expectation in January [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on TA05 in the range of [5050 - 5185] [31] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 contract price and related data changes [32] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device load increases, demand is good but expectations are weak, port inventory rises, and it lacks upward drivers [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, focus on EG05 in the range of [3820 - 3910] [34] Methanol - **Market Review**: Main contract price and related data changes [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but the downside is limited. Pay attention to port de - stocking speed [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on MA05 in the range of [2220 - 2290] [39] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea main contract price and related data changes [43] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the export window is not closed [42][43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on UR05 in the range of [1780 - 1810] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: NG main contract price and related data changes [45][46] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on NG in the range of [3.409 - 3.695] [47] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU main contract price and related data changes [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause raw material shortage expectations, supply is decreasing, demand has a small increase, and inventory is rising [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should prevent risks, focus on BU in the range of [3100 - 3200] [52] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 contract price and related data changes [54][55] - **Basic Logic**: Cold repair expectations support, supply - demand is weak, and focus on supply reduction [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on FG in the range of [1100 - 1150] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 contract price and related data changes [58][59] - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, supply is loose in the long - term, and cold repair expectations of float glass increase [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on SA in the range of [1200 - 1250] [60]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹供需总体体现季节性淡季特征，库存继续正常去化，已处于较低水平。目前供需层 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 面矛盾有限，国内政策驱动不强，但股市、商品整体情绪较强，为黑色带来阶段性提振。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，短期市场情绪偏暖带来提振。 | | ★ | | | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再增。钢厂按需补库。外矿发货冲量结束后明显缩量，冬储补库叠 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 加高炉复产，矿价坚挺。 | | | | 焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场预计开启第五轮提降。多轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态， | | 焦炭 | 看多 | 但亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比基本持平。从需求来看，铁水 | | ★★ | | 产量环比转增，但下游补库积极性一般，按需采购为主。短期市场情绪向好，跟随焦煤 | | | | 偏强运行。 | | | | 假期过后，前期 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 月美农报告公布临 | | 豆粕 | | 近，市场预计单产会有下调，昨日最新美豆周度出口数据同比继续下降，但下降幅 | | | 短线整理 | | | ★ | | 度有很大缓解，难以对美豆构成进一步利空打压。1 月报告公布前，叠加南美天气 | | | | 仍有波动，美豆止跌整理反弹走势。昨日豆粕跟随外盘收涨。关注美豆出口数据、 | | | | 1 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。但加拿大总理中旬面临 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 访华，削弱市场看多情绪。菜粕以跟随豆粕为主。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和 | | | | 进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油 12 月库存预计仍会累库，叠加本月前 5 日出口数据不佳，棕榈油短线预 | | ★ | 短线震荡整理 | 计承压暂维持震荡。但由于减产季来临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, natural gas, glass, soda ash [1][3][6] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea [3] - **Bearish Rebound**: LPG, L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [1][6] - **Oscillating Bullish**: PVC, glass [1][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price movements in the energy and chemical industries. For example, supply surplus leads to downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical events in South America cause short - term price rebounds [1][9]. - Cost factors play a significant role. For instance, the increase in Saudi CP contract prices boosts LPG prices in the short - term, and the weakening of oil prices affects the cost of asphalt [1][15]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations also impact prices. Seasonal off - peak demand and inventory changes influence the market, and market expectations affect trading strategies [1][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.04%, Brent down 1.72%, and SC up 0.12% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical events in South America and the Middle East do not change the supply surplus situation. In the core driving factor, supply surplus during the off - peak season and increasing global crude oil inventories lead to downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [420 - 430] [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the PG main contract closed at 4195 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's increase in the latest CP contract price boosts gas prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and faces upward pressure. Supply increases with rising refinery starts, and downstream chemical demand provides some support [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6579 yuan/ton, up 2.0% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term expectations dominate the market. The shutdown ratio rises, and the weighted gross profit of LL is compressed. However, the supply is still sufficient. The demand for shed films weakens, and there is pressure to reduce inventory [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6423 yuan/ton, up 1.5% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The intensification of maintenance reduces short - term supply pressure. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The commercial total inventory is decreasing at a high level, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4919 yuan/ton, up 3.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The market trades on the Shaanxi differential electricity price notice, and calcium carbide is expected to strengthen. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support strengthens, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to inventory changes. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 5000] [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, and processing fees and profits have increased. The supply side has some device restarts, and the demand side is currently good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5120 - 5250] [30]. 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3609 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load has increased, and the demand is good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3830 - 3920] [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has some changes in domestic and overseas device starts, and the demand side is slightly weak. The cost support is weakly stable, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2250 - 2349] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract closing price was 1749 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stabilized. The supply side is expected to face increasing pressure as some maintenance devices resume production. The demand side is weak in the short - term, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [41][42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1800] [43]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.523 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.63% [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side enters the consumption peak season, but the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant, putting pressure on prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [46]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the BU main contract closed at 3144 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical events in South America lead to short - term supply disruptions of asphalt raw materials. The cost - profit situation improves, and the supply side has a decrease in production volume. The demand side is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is rising [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be cautious due to supply uncertainties. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [51]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.0% [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold - repair expectations support the market. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak supply and demand, with declining daily melting volume and negative profits for all three processes. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1190 yuan/ton, up 1.1% [57]. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment improves, but the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the continuous decline in the daily melting volume of float glass. The long - term supply is abundant, and the demand support is insufficient [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [59].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，部分国家局势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战 | | ★★ | | 略配置价值不变。 | | | | COMEX 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、资源紧张预期等因素影响白银大涨，长期降息 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易也是 | | ★★ | | 2026 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，宏 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 观情绪叠加海外铜矿扰动，铜短期强势运行，但也要警惕情绪消退后铜高位回落风 | | ★ | | 险，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪积极叠加供应预期收缩，支撑锌价走高。短期宏观情绪占据主导， | | | 反弹 | 需警惕宏观情绪消退后，锌高位回落风险。建议多单及时 ...