| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国领导人在社交媒体称将在不久后与中方会面，大豆会是主要议题，这点燃了美 | | | | 国大豆农民对出口销售的期待。国内方面，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 22.38 万吨，较 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 前一交易日增 18.57 万吨，开机方面，今日全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 44.47%， | | ★ | | 较前一日下降 10.71%。美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，巴西降雨略有改善，缺 | | | | 乏利多驱动，豆粕偏弱整理行情，但中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑，短线 | | | | 波动有限。关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Short - term watch, long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish, short - term short positions and gradually take profits, long - term short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term safe - haven demand for gold has declined but still exists. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, with the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver has high short - term volatility due to potential US taxation and low London inventory. Long - term, global policy will stimulate demand and there will be a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is in high - level consolidation in the short term, with supply expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. In the long term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand [1]. - Zinc is under pressure and fluctuating weakly in the short term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the long term [1]. - Lead prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term due to planned restarts of recycling plants and uncertain downstream consumption [1]. - Tin prices are under short - term pressure due to reduced overseas disturbances and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term, with insufficient cost support from alumina but some support from terminal consumption [1]. - Nickel prices are weak, with sufficient domestic supply and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is cautiously bearish due to increased industry开工率 and potential negative impacts on demand [1]. - Polysilicon is bullish as there are expectations of production capacity regulation and potential production cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, with supply - demand balance in the short term, continuous inventory reduction, and strong terminal demand [1] 3. Summaries by Catalog Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: G2 tension eases, gold and silver prices adjust. Gold prices are strong due to US government shutdown, ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, and repeated Middle - East problems [2]. - **基本逻辑**: Sino - US relations ease; Ray Dalio emphasizes a bullish stance on gold; the Middle - East issue is repeated. Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **策略推荐**: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Domestic gold has strong support at 950. Silver has high speculative sentiment, with short - term adjustments. Short - term investors should watch, while long - term investors can hold [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range [6]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. High copper prices suppress demand, and domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [6]. - **策略推荐**: Copper is in high - level consolidation, but the long - term trend is unchanged. Hold previous long positions with trailing stops, and new long positions should enter on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [83000, 88000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [10000, 11000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating weakly [10]. - **产业逻辑**: The global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the "Silver October" peak season is lackluster [10]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term short positions can gradually take profits. Wait for rebounds to re - enter short positions. In the long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Shanghai zinc focuses on [21600, 22000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2900, 3000] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina prices are stabilizing at a low level [13]. - **产业逻辑**: There are still expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high operating capacity, and inventory is decreasing. The alumina market is in surplus in the short term [14]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term, buy Shanghai aluminum on dips. Pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] [15]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebound and then decline, and stainless steel prices rebound slightly [17]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas disturbances in nickel ore supply are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain [18]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily watch nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and goes high, but the gains narrow at the end [21]. - **产业逻辑**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Demand is strong, and supply has accident rumors. Terminal demand is strong, supporting prices [22]. - **策略推荐**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range [75300 - 77800] [23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For silicon manganese, the supply is at a high level in the short - term, and it will gradually enter the supply off - season in mid - to - late October. After the new round of restocking demand from downstream steel procurement is released, it is more difficult to reduce the inventory in production areas. The cost side provides some support, but the upward driving force is limited. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract is [5680, 5800] [4][5]. - For silicon iron, both supply and demand are weakening, the inventory continues to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts maintains a downward trend. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silicon iron and short on manganese silicon. The reference range for the main contract is [5300, 5600] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: As of October 17, the national silicon manganese production was 20.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 million tons; the operating rate was 43.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. The operating rate in Yunnan continued to decline to 81.79%, while the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [4][10]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the rebar production continued to decline. The steel procurement price - pressing sentiment remained strong. The first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill was lower than market expectations. HeSteel's first - round inquiry price for silicon manganese in October was 5750 yuan/ton, and the latest inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous round; the procurement quantity was 16,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous round but an increase of 4500 tons compared with the same period last year [4][16]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. As of September 18, the total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 47,900, a decrease of 6100 from last Friday; the total valid forecasts were 3300, an increase of 3300 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was about 256,000 tons, maintaining a downward trend [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The port manganese ore prices were weak this week, with small declines in both high - and low - grade prices. The total shipment volume of the three major countries was 439,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 337,600 tons; the arrival volume was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons. After the holiday, the port clearance volume increased rapidly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5818 yuan/ton and 6431 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 138 yuan/ton and - 781 yuan/ton respectively [4][23]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: As of October 17, the weekly silicon iron production was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 tons; the operating rate was 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. Although the national production and operating rate decreased, there were still individual factory restarts in Ningxia, and the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [46][51]. - **Demand**: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products was 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 182 tons. The steel procurement process in October accelerated, and the market price - pressing sentiment was still strong. HeSteel's final bid price for silicon iron in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from September; the procurement quantity was 2956 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from September but an increase of 920 tons compared with the same period last year. In September, the magnesium ingot production was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3300 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 0.38%. From January to August, the cumulative silicon iron export volume was 2.71 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 6.5% [46][57][60]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 69,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3100 tons. As of October 17, the total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 12,200, a decrease of 2800 from last Friday; the total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from last Friday [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the semi - coke market was stable. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5625 yuan/ton and 5522 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 445 yuan/ton and - 392 yuan/ton respectively [47][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid Sino-US tariff disruptions, copper prices are undergoing a high-level adjustment. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the Sino-US game and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand [6][7][84] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that Sino-US tariff disruptions lead to a high-level adjustment of copper prices. It is advised to set trailing stops for long positions, and copper is still promising in the long run. The operation strategy is to hold long positions cautiously, avoid blind chasing, and set trailing stops. New long positions should wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback. Production enterprises can consider selling hedges at high prices (around 86,000 - 87,000), while processing enterprises should wait for price pullbacks to buy hedges [6][7][84] Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino-US Trade Tensions**: Trump's tariff threats show a "TACO" pattern. China has implemented countermeasures such as rare earth export controls, special port fees on US-related ships, anti-monopoly investigations, and adding some US enterprises to the unreliable entity list. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly, and the market should be wary of further market fluctuations caused by Trump's inconsistent stance. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that if China stops strict rare earth export controls, the US may extend the three-month exemption period for additional tariffs on China [12][15][84] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, hinting at an early end to balance sheet reduction, which strengthened market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October. However, there are differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [18] - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, CPI decline narrowed, PPI decline also narrowed, and export data exceeded expectations. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year [21] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Disruptions in major copper mines such as Indonesia's Grasbreg, Congo's Kamoa-Kakula, and Chile's El Teniente have tightened global copper supply. In 2025, the output of global mainstream copper mining enterprises is expected to be revised down to 1.22 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.18%. The import of copper concentrate increased in August, and the port inventory increased slightly. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [47] - **Scrap Copper**: Supply is tight due to restrictions on European high-quality scrap copper exports, Sino-US tariff frictions, and domestic policy adjustments. The refined-scrap copper price spread has narrowed [52] - **Refined Copper**: In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased significantly. In October, due to smelter maintenance, production is expected to continue to decline. Overseas, smelters are facing a survival crisis due to low TC/RCs. The import of refined copper showed mixed trends [57] - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Enterprises**: High copper prices have suppressed demand, and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and making purchases only for essential needs. However, the operating rates of some downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in September [63] - **End-User Industries**: Power and new energy vehicle sectors show strong demand. In the first eight months, power grid investment increased, and new photovoltaic installations were prominent. In September, automobile production and sales reached record highs. The home appliance industry is expected to have a front-loaded strong performance followed by a weaker second half, and the real estate market is still at the bottom [69] Summary and Outlook - In the short term, due to Sino-US tariff disruptions and profit-taking by long positions, copper prices have adjusted at a high level. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions and wait for price pullbacks to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 80,000 - 82,000. Unless Sino-US relations deteriorate rapidly, the probability of a deep adjustment in copper prices is low. In the long term, copper is favored as a strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand. The price range for Shanghai copper is expected to be between 80,000 and 88,000, and for LME copper, between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton [7][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, with total inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks, strong demand, and increasing production. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate upward, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3%. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3] - Sino - US trade disputes resurfaced, global market risk appetite declined, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is almost certain [3] 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production was 22,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 326 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%. Domestic smelting capacity expansion led to a significant increase in production [8] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production was 5,943 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 39.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%. Production release was limited [10] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production was 78,164 tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 68.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%. New capacity was under ramping up [13] 3.3 Demand Side - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000 units, a 1% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.236 million units, a 23% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 328,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase and an 11% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.775 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase [3] 3.4 Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the African SC 5% lithium ore was priced at $590/ton, unchanged from last week; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF price was $835/ton, a $10/ton increase from last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [4][47] - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production cost was 67,893 yuan/ton, a 140 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 5,887 yuan/ton, a 530 - yuan increase [4][49] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 68,541 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 77 - yuan increase [52] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,177 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the industry loss was 1,008 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan/ton decrease [54] 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,144 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 30,686 tons, a 11,983 - ton decrease from last week [32] - As of October 17, the total lithium iron phosphate inventory was 43,978 tons, a 6,200 - ton decrease from last week [35] 3.6 Market Price - As of October 17, the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price was 74,500 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase from last week; the LC2511 contract closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, a 4% increase from last week [5][6] - Various lithium - related products showed different price changes, with some rising and some falling [5] 3.7 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain in a tight balance, with strong terminal demand, which strongly supports the price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate upward [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black - sector was differentiated. Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore declined, while coking coal and coke rose. The demand for rebar recovered after the National Day but was lower than last year. Due to lower production, inventory is expected to be normally depleted. Hot - rolled coil has high production, stable demand, and the highest inventory level in the same period. If the current state continues, inventory pressure will increase. Overall, there is pressure on supply - demand due to high pig iron production. Although many steel mills issued price - support announcements, prices will be under pressure in the medium term if production is not effectively controlled. The "anti - involution" drive has cooled, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee may provide short - term support [2]. - The supply - demand situation is still weak. Steel inventory is high, and the supply - demand contradiction of coils may further intensify. Macro - drivers may provide short - term support but with limited amplitude. The supply - demand of raw materials is relatively stable. In general, there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but the height is limited, and it will maintain a weak operation in the medium term. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may further shrink [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In August 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 69790,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; the cumulative output was 579,070,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The monthly output of crude steel was 77,370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; the cumulative output was 671,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The monthly output of steel was 122,770,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; the cumulative output was 982,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the cumulative imports were 4,530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. Steel exports were 10,470,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the cumulative exports were 87,960,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [4]. Five - major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of October 17, 2025, the weekly production of rebar was 2,011,600 tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%; consumption was 2,197,500 tons, an increase of 665,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%; inventory was 6,410,500 tons, a decrease of 185,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. For wire rod, production was 846,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7%; consumption was 840,000 tons, an increase of 149,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%; inventory was 1,432,400 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 32%. For hot - rolled coil, production was 3,218,400 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; consumption was 3,155,500 tons, an increase of 205,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; inventory was 4,191,900 tons, an increase of 62,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 13%. For cold - rolled coil, production was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.8%; consumption was 902,600 tons, an increase of 101,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.21%; inventory was 1,834,500 tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.24%. For medium - thick plate, production was 1,618,700 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.69%; consumption was 1,654,300 tons, an increase of 117,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.76%; inventory was 1,953,300 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.89%. The total production of the five - major steel products was 8,569,500 tons, a decrease of 63,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.1%; total consumption was 8,750,000 tons, an increase of 1,240,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.34%; total inventory was 15,820,000 tons, a decrease of 184,600 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 24.34% [5]. Steel Production Profit - On October 16, 2025, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 84, with a change of 8; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 88, with a change of - 9; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 209, with a change of - 9; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 118, with a change of 8. In North China, rebar - blast furnace was 19, with a change of - 2; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 70, with a change of 18; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 154, with a change of 18; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 7, with a change of - 2. In Central China, rebar - blast furnace was 175, with a change of 0; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 88, with a change of 5; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 219, with a change of 4; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 95, with a change of - 10 [20]. Steel Demand - **Real Estate High - frequency Data**: The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.7% [27]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement delivery volume has improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level comparable to last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11% [30]. - **Steel Exports**: In September, the export volume increased month - on - month, was slightly higher than last year, and was at a high level in the same period [36]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the 01 contract is at a relatively low level in recent years. After the delivery of the 10 - contract, the delivered goods may have a certain impact on the spot, but the overall impact is expected to be limited. Rebar production is lower than last year, and inventory is expected to be normally depleted, so the basis is expected to run stably [50]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Basis**: The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract runs stably. This week, hot - rolled coil inventory continued to rise and is at the highest level in the same period. Cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate inventories are also high. Against the background of high pig iron and hot - rolled coil production, inventory pressure may drive the basis to run weakly [54]. - **Rebar Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of rebar ran at a low level this week with limited fluctuations [60]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, and the spread may further move towards a reverse - arbitrage pattern [64]. - **Spread between Hot - rolled Coil and Rebar**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may further shrink [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and Hold [2] - Silver: Long - term Hold [2] - Copper: Long - term Hold [2] - Zinc: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Tin: Under Pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound [2] - Nickel: Rebound [2] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously Bullish [2] Core Views - The overall investment opportunities and risks in the non - ferrous metals and new energy metals sectors are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, gold has strong short - and long - term investment value due to risk - aversion sentiment and long - term support factors; while zinc is expected to have limited upside potential in the short - term and is a bearish configuration in the medium - to - long - term due to supply increase and demand decrease [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: G2 relations stagnated, the US government remained shut down, and the Russia - Ukraine issue showed a negative turn, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Although investors worry about gold being overbought and potential rebounds in interest rates and the dollar, the overall gold holdings are still at a low level. Long - term factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring support the long - term bullish trend of gold. For silver, there is a risk of short - squeeze in the short - term due to low inventory, and long - term demand is driven by global policies [4][2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long terms. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidated in a short - term high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Freeport - McMoRan plans to change the copper concentrate pricing benchmark, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to a wait - and - see attitude among downstream buyers. However, the demand for green copper in industries such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles remains strong [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper with trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc stopped falling and rebounded slightly [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts an increase in the global refined zinc supply surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase in October. Weak real estate and infrastructure have dragged down galvanized zinc demand. Overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft - squeeze risk, and domestic social inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, although zinc has rebounded due to improved macro and sector sentiment and inventory reduction, the upside space is limited. Consider selling hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is a bearish configuration in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for LME zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, while alumina continued to be weak [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was high, and inventory increased during the holiday. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate increased slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect arrivals, and the market is in an oversupply situation [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, consider buying Shanghai aluminum on dips, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized slightly, and stainless steel rebounded slightly [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the supply disruption of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain, with increased inventory and production [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a gain of over 2% throughout the day [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: In September, the shipment of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased. In October, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, with domestic supply and production increasing. Overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production increased in October, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in contract 2601 within the range of 74,300 - 76,000 yuan/ton [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry in the report is "Cautiously Bearish" [1][2][3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver for most commodities is supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Crude oil is affected by supply over - capacity and inventory changes; other products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, etc., are also influenced by factors such as cost, supply, and demand dynamics [1][2][5] 3. Summary According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply over - capacity is the core driver. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventory has risen, but the absolute inventory level is not high, providing some support at the bottom. OPEC+ plans to continue expanding production in November, increasing the pressure of supply over - capacity and downward pressure on oil prices. Key focus is on the marginal change in crude oil production [1] - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC between [430 - 450] [1][10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The cost side is weak as the oil price supply is in surplus and Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price. The LPG valuation has been repaired, and the basis of the main contract has returned to normal. The supply side is relatively sufficient, and the factory inventory has increased. The downstream chemical demand has recovered, showing strong demand resilience [1] - **Strategy**: Follow the oil price trend. Hold short positions. Consider selling put options. Pay attention to the range of PG between [4100 - 4200] [1][14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices have fallen together, the basis has weakened, and the futures price has reached a new low for the year. New LD and other devices are put into production, and the supply pattern remains loose in the fourth - quarter seasonal upturn. Although the demand peak season has arrived, the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price center has moved down, and the cost support is insufficient [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of L between [6800 - 7000] [1][19] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices continue to seek the bottom, and the futures price has returned to a premium structure. After the holiday, the commercial inventory has increased, slightly exceeding the seasonal characteristics, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. With the end of the "Silver October" and the seasonal increase in upstream production in the fourth quarter, there is high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. PDH profit has been significantly repaired. Pay attention to whether the cost support of propane can strengthen [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of PP between [6500 - 6700] [1][24] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: The Formosa Plastics' quotation in November has been lowered, and the main contract has broken through the support level and reached a new low for the year. After the holiday, the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has increased more than expected, and the fundamental situation remains loose. Industrial hedging has put pressure on the price, and there is still an expectation of further inventory accumulation in the future. However, the absolute price is undervalued, and the room for further decline in the spot price is limited under high pre - sales [1] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price will continue to explore the bottom weakly. Be cautious about short - selling due to the low - valued absolute price [1][28] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The supply side has slightly increased the load of domestic and overseas devices, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in PTA start - up. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Since this year, PXN has been at a relatively high level, and PX - MX has been on the high side. Macroscopically, crude oil is under pressure, and naphtha is weakening [1] - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Close short positions at low prices and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX601 between [6260 - 6370] [1][32][33] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The supply - side start - up load has increased. There is an expectation of a "Silver October" consumption peak season on the demand side, and the terminal orders have slightly improved. The supply - demand was in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short term, PTA follows the cost fluctuations. However, the processing fee is not high, and the valuation is low [2] - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fee are not high. Close short positions at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the term C structure. Pay attention to the range of TA01 between [4380 - 4460] [2][36][37] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices have increased their load, and overseas devices have changed little. Terminal consumption has improved in the short term but is expected to be under pressure. After the holiday, the supply is expected to increase due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices. MEG inventory has slightly increased. Recently, it follows the cost fluctuations and is oscillating weakly [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG01 between [4010 - 4070] [2][40][41] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract [2] - **Main Logic**: Due to Sino - US trade frictions, the US tariff policy is short - term negative. The start - up load of domestic and overseas methanol devices has rebounded, and the number of device maintenance has increased recently. The import profit has slightly improved, and the expected arrival volume in October is about 1.7 million tons, so the overall supply pressure remains high. The demand side has improved, but the traditional downstream profit is relatively low, and the comprehensive weighted start - up load is weak. The social inventory has increased again. The cost support is stable [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA01 between [2265 - 2305] [2][45][47] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long term [2] - **Main Logic**: The urea supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to remain around 200,000 tons in the first half of October. The demand side is still cold domestically and hot overseas. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is generally weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. The inventory has continued to accumulate and is still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support [2] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals remain weak, but the urea valuation is not high. Consider light - position long - term long - position opportunities at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR601 between [1590 - 1620] [2][50][52] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply is sufficient, leading to a decline in gas prices. On October 10th, the US launched a new tariff war, increasing macro - risks, and trade policies are negative for energy prices. EIA data shows that as of the week ending October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118. The cooling temperature increases combustion demand and gas storage for winter, providing some support for gas prices [5] Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: The cost side, crude oil, has weakened, the demand side has decreased due to weather disturbances, and the supply - side pressure has increased, putting pressure on asphalt prices. The overall supply - demand of asphalt is loose, with the production growth rate significantly higher than the demand growth rate. The demand in the north has decreased significantly due to rain. The current cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, indicating over - valuation [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. There is no short - term macro - policy drive in China, and the building materials sector has declined together. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased, and deep - processing orders remain at a low level compared to the same period. Pay attention to the downstream restocking strength during the peak season. The daily melting volume is 161,300 tons, and both coal - fired and petroleum - coke processes are profitable, so it is unlikely that enterprises will unexpectedly shut down for cold repair, resulting in supply pressure [5] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: The number of warehouse receipt forecasts has increased, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pattern remains loose. Most of the demand side continues with just - in - time purchases. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 250,000 tons. Some devices such as Zhongyuan Chemical and Tianjin Alkali Plant are under maintenance, and the production is expected to decline slightly [5] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Hold long positions in the spread between soda ash and glass [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - **Silicomanganese**: Weak rebound, cautious about shorting [1][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][17] 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream demand for construction steel is still weak, and real estate and infrastructure continue to drag, with limited supply-demand driving forces, high overall steel inventory, and rising risks of contradictions under high hot metal production, so it will run weakly [1][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased, generally in line with seasonal performance. The overall steel demand is still weak, with high inventory levels and a lack of continuous upward drivers on the supply-demand side, so it will run weakly in the short-term range [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are neutral to strong. After the holiday, the inventory of downstream finished products increased instead of decreasing, increasing concerns about industrial negative feedback. Steel mills' profits are significantly compressed, production enthusiasm is gradually declining, and ore prices will run weakly following steel prices [1][6] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increase was delayed, with obvious game between coke and steel enterprises. Coke enterprises' profits are average, and spot production is relatively stable. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will run weakly in the range following coking coal [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of an increase in overall coal mine production, and imports are expected to remain high, so the supply margin will continue to improve. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand tightness has improved, but there may still be disturbances on the supply side later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][13] - **Silicomanganese**: The supply in the production area decreased slightly but the absolute value is still high, and the inventory continued to increase this period. The inquiry price for the silicon manganese tender of a landmark steel mill in October was 5,750 yuan/ton, lower than market expectations. In the short term, the cost side still supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited, so be cautious about shorting [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area is relatively stable, inventory has increased significantly, the steel tender progress in October is slow, and the market is mostly waiting and seeing. There is no short-term upward driving force, so wait and see [1][16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3,034 with a decline of 27; Rebar 05 is at 3,090 with a decline of 24; Rebar 10 is at 2,950 with a decline of 20. Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3,212 with a decline of 29; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is at 3,223 with a decline of 25; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is at 3,610 with an increase of 168 [2] - **Spot Price**: Tangshan billet is at 2,920 with a decline of 10; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3,080 with an increase of 10; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3,190 with a decline of 20; etc. Hot-rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3,200 with a decline of 20; Hot-rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3,280 with a decline of 10; etc [2] - **Basis and Spread**: For example, the basis of Rebar 01 in Shanghai is 156 with an increase of 7; the spread of RB 10 - 01 is -84 with an increase of 7; the spread of hot-rolled coil - rebar in Shanghai is 90 with an increase of 10 [2] Iron Ore - **View**: The fundamentals are neutral to strong, but due to the increase in downstream finished product inventory after the holiday and the compression of steel mills' profits, the ore price will run weakly following the steel price [6] Coke - **Price and Data**: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1,642.0 with a decline of 12.5; the 01 basis is -115 with an increase of 23.3. The full - sample independent coke enterprise capacity utilization rate is 96, the 247 - steel mill average daily hot metal production is 241.5 with a decline of 0.3, etc [9] - **View**: The second - round price increase was delayed, with stable production and relatively balanced supply and demand, running weakly following coking coal [10] Coking Coal - **Price and Data**: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1,151.0 with a decline of 2.5; the 01 basis is 228 with an increase of 2.5. The sample coal washing plant's starting rate is 61.5 with a decline of 0.8, etc [12] - **View**: There is an expectation of supply improvement, but there may be later disturbances, running in a range [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5,746 with an increase of 8; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5,352 with an increase of 30. The spot price of silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 with an increase of 30; the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia is 5,280 with an increase of 30 [15] - **Data**: The silicon manganese enterprise starting rate is 70 with a decline of 0.99; the 187 - silicon manganese enterprise output is 204,225 tons with a decline of 2,205 tons; the 60 - ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,030 with an increase of 3,800 [15] - **View**: Manganese silicon has limited upward driving force but cost support; Ferrosilicon has no short - term upward driving force and the market is waiting and seeing [16][17]