Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, caustic soda, methanol, propylene [1][2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Soda ash, urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. Pay attention to the key support level of $60 [1]. - **LPG**: Cost drag vs. high basis, with the downside support for liquefied gas strengthening [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, and a cautious bearish stance is recommended [14]. - **PP**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still pressure to destock [24]. - **PVC**: Cost support improves, but the fundamentals are weak, and a rebound is expected to be followed by a bearish trend [30]. - **PX**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish view is held [33]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro - sentiment has subsided, and a cautious bearish view is taken [41]. - **Glass**: Spot quotes are lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [45]. - **Soda ash**: Inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the 10 - day moving average [50]. - **Caustic soda**: The subsidy for liquid chlorine has narrowed, and the futures price center has moved down [54]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and crude oil is oscillating weakly, so a cautious bearish view is recommended [59]. - **Urea**: The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum [2]. - **Asphalt**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply is sufficient, so a bearish view is taken [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 1.11%, and SC down 0.96% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually being released, and the oil price center still has room to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, due to the substitution of new energy and OPEC's expansion of production, supply is gradually becoming excessive. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. In the short - term, the trend is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support below is gradually rising. Consider taking profits on short positions and then waiting and watching. SC should be monitored in the range of [490 - 505] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 6, the PG main contract closed at 3,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has declined, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The cost is the main drag on liquefied gas, while the basis is at a high level [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of liquefied gas to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. In the short - term, the RSI data is in the oversold range, and the downside support is strengthening, so there may be a short - term rebound. Consider taking profits on short positions and then lightly opening long positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [3750 - 3850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 121 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, spot prices have continuously declined, the basis has weakened, and social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, most plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure, and downstream restocking demand during the off - season is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, domestic demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season, and downstream restocking demand is insufficient. Although there are many short - term upstream maintenance activities, the production capacity release pressure in the third quarter is high [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long strategy [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,042 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,773 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide has continuously increased, and coking coal has returned to a bullish trend, improving cost support. However, there are few maintenance plans in August, new production capacity is being released, and it is the off - season for both domestic and international demand, with weakened export support. Social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand pattern in August is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In August, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. Wait for the rebound and then take a bearish position [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: There are few changes in domestic and overseas plants. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but PX inventory is still relatively high. PXN is not low, and the basis has weakened. There is no macro - bullish news recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market has declined [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. PX should be monitored in the range of [6700 - 6830] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, and the start - up rate has declined. The demand side is generally weak, and the start - up rates of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weakening. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation for PTA in August has eased, and there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors recently [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4740] [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas ethylene glycol plants have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly weakening, and terminal demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand is in a tight balance from July to August, and the inventory is generally low [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously and sell call options. EG should be monitored in the range of [4390 - 4450] [44]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes have been lowered, the futures price is showing differentiation, the Hubei basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [47]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, there is no unexpected incremental policy for real estate in the Politburo meeting, and the official manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month and is below the boom - bust line. The market risk appetite has declined, and the sentiment in the commodity market has been dampened. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus has shifted from expectations to fundamentals [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG2509 should be monitored in the range of [1050, 1100] [49]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of heavy soda ash are showing differentiation, the futures price is rising and falling unevenly, the basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged, and the number of valid forecasts has increased [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype about macro - policies has cooled down. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been undergoing maintenance and restarts, resulting in a slight reduction in overall production. The weekly supply of soda ash has decreased, and the demand side mostly continues to take delivery based on rigid demand. The inventory of soda ash plants has ended three weeks of destocking and is still at a historically high level [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be patient and wait for the correction to end. Temporarily wait and watch or take a cautious bearish stance [52]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of liquid caustic soda are stable, the futures price has declined, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [56]. - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, summer plant maintenance has led to a decline in industry start - up. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and the production of alumina has gradually increased. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda has slightly decreased, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the production profit has increased. The supply and demand of caustic soda are balanced, and the inventory is high compared to the same period [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy is recommended in the text [58]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol plants under maintenance have resumed production, and the start - up load of overseas methanol plants remains high, increasing the expected supply pressure. The expected demand has weakened, and the social inventory is accumulating, but it is still relatively low overall. The basis and the 9 - 1 spread have weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options. Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Hold the MA9 - 1 reverse spread. MA should be monitored in the range of [2365 - 2410] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is generally weak. However, there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum. The valuation of urea is not high, and coal prices are capped and supported under the background of the "export quota system" and "peak - summer power consumption" [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for UR601. At the same time, sell put options. UR should be monitored in the range of [1750 - 1790] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply for asphalt is sufficient. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly open short positions. BU should be monitored in the range of [3500 - 3600] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the cost support for PDH has weakened, the upstream start - up rate has marginally weakened, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for 4 consecutive weeks and is at a high level compared to the same period [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or hold the 1 - 2 calendar spread reverse strategy. PL should be monitored in the range of [6350 - 6550] [2].

| 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升， | | --- | --- | --- | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 基本面体现淡季特征。市场情绪有所降温，后期行情或切换产业逻辑，但后期仍可能出 | | | | 现减产限产等政策提振市场预期，短期或有反弹。【3200，3260】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷出口利润回落 | | | 谨慎看多 | 明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场情绪总体降温，中期价格中枢或有下移，但短期在 | | ★ | | 限产等消息支撑下或有反弹。【3430，3480】 | | 铁矿石 | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端发货明显减量，到货恢复性增加。港口去库，钢厂库 | | ★ | 短多参与 | 存增加。基本面中性偏强，反内卷交易告一段落，基本面主导下，矿价坚挺。【770,810】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | ★★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs (Cautious bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal (Large - range oscillation); Palm oil (Short - term consolidation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: In a large - range oscillation due to the intertwined influence of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. This week's inventory reduction and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish factors, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week, making the market cautious about going long [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: In a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed production is recovering year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. - **Palm oil**: Short - term consolidation. The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions and look for opportunities to go long after price stabilization [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The moisture conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas continue to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. In China, the increase in the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton boosts the guaranteed output. The rapid commercial de - stocking and the slowdown in downstream finished - product restocking provide short - term support. The downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the decline space before the new cotton is listed is expected to be limited [1]. - **Red dates**: Cautiously bullish. There are still significant differences in the market regarding the extent of the production reduction, and there is still a risk of over - hyped production reduction. It is advisable to be cautious about going long this week and pay attention to the previous high pressure level [1]. - **Live pigs**: Cautiously bullish. The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs, but the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still promotes some second - fattening speculation. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains high, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It presents a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 3026 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3006.29 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Market situation**: The de - stocking this week and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract was 2745 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2753.16 yuan/ton, a 1.75% increase from the previous day [5]. - **Market situation**: The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract was 8970 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the previous day; the national average price was 9040 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the previous day [8]. - **Market situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 was 13690 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease; the domestic spot price increased by 0.06% to 15196 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market situation**: The US cotton good - quality rate is stable and higher than the same period, but the non - drought rate in the US cotton area is decreasing. In China, the new cotton production is expected to increase, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is gradually improving [12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 51 tons, higher than the same period [16]. - **Price**: The main red date contract CJ2601 increased by 1.71% to 10980 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market situation**: There are differences in the market regarding the production reduction amplitude, and the high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and出栏**: The national sample enterprise live pig inventory in June was 3763.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%; the出栏 volume was 1091.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18]. - **Price**: The main live pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.68% to 14010 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Market situation**: The short - term出栏 increase and the second - fattening speculation co - exist. The medium - and long - term production capacity is high, and leading enterprises are gradually reducing production capacity [19][20].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储表态鸽派，关税谈判接近尾声，短期盘面调整。中长期来看，多国货币政策 | | | 回调做多 | 宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | ★★ | | 【770-794】 | | 白银 | | 美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，白银基本面变化不大， | | | 反弹做多 | 工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银长期向上趋势不变。不过短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | 较大，短期试多长期做多。【9000-9300】 | | | | 海内外宏观政策进入窗口期，铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但是需求淡 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 季叠加海内外库存累库限制铜反弹空间，短期建议等待铜充分回调后再试多，中长 | | ★★ | | 期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | 锌 | 海外 | LME 锌库存连续去化超预期，国内需求疲软继续累库。锌外强内弱，沪锌跟随 | | | 反弹沽空 | 伦锌止跌反弹，建议锌前期空单止盈兑现后 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most varieties are rated as 'Cautiously Bearish', some as 'Bearish' [1][2] Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and macro - policy impacts lead to downward price pressure [1][2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Partially take profit on short positions due to supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks [1][3] - **Key Points**: OPEC's planned September production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, combined with the mid - to - late peak season, causes downward pressure on oil prices. The key support level is around $60 per barrel [5][7] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions [1][8] - **Key Points**: Cost - end oil price decline and Saudi's CP contract price reduction drag down LPG. Although the fundamentals are okay, there is short - term downward pressure [10][11] L (PE) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions [1][13] - **Key Points**: Spot prices fall, inventory accumulates, and supply pressure increases. New capacity is expected to be put into production in August [16] PP - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 9 - 1 calendar spreads [1][19] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is weak, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream. Third - quarter production capacity pressure is high [23] PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1][26] - **Key Points**: Rising raw material costs, postponed maintenance, and new capacity release lead to inventory accumulation in August [29] PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions and sell put options [1][32] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with high inventory. PXN is not low, and there is a lack of macro - level positive factors [34] PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and sell put options [1][36] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure may increase with new device production, while demand is weak. The processing fee is low [38] MEG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions, sell put options, and look for low - buying opportunities [1][40] - **Key Points**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with low inventory. Market sentiment has cooled [42] Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][44] - **Key Points**: Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption leads to inventory reduction [47] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][49] - **Key Points**: Macro - policy hype has cooled, supply has decreased slightly, but inventory remains high, and the supply - demand surplus persists [52] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bearish, the price range has declined [2][54] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is balanced, inventory is high year - on - year, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. The downstream alumina market has corrected [57] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on 09 short positions, sell call options, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2][59] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure increases with the resumption of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is accumulating [60] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [2] - **Key Points**: Production capacity is expected to increase, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, but exports are relatively good [2] Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 1 - 2 calendar spreads [2] - **Key Points**: Spot prices are weak, cost support is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉，维持原关税率，并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 气候中心中性预期，且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，预计将 持续至 9 月底，8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 支撑预期下，豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下，本周豆粕去库，在无新指引下，暂维持偏多反弹走势，但波幅 | | | | 较往日会大有收敛，向上空间有限。关注下周 USDA 月度供需报告。主力【2990， | | | | 3050】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持，但不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Fed may cut interest rates more than twice with a magnitude greater than 50bp, and the probability of stagflation in the US is increasing. Short - term, the market rebounds, and long - term, strategic allocation of gold is recommended [1]. - For silver, the future US interest rate cut expectations and treasury bond issuance support commodities. Its fundamentals change little, with strong industrial demand and limited supply increase, so it has a long - term upward trend [1]. - For copper, due to weak US economic data and increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a large increase in LME copper inventory, short - term, wait for a full correction to try long, and long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1]. - For zinc, with loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, and over - expected zinc ingot production in July, along with a demand off - season, short - term, hold previous short positions and take partial profits, and long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices [1]. - For lead, with new production capacity coming online, enterprises resuming production, and relatively high social inventory, the lead price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For tin, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and inventory accumulation during the consumption off - season, the tin price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For aluminum, with high - level overseas imported bauxite, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream processing industry, the aluminum price continues to be under pressure [1]. - For nickel, with weak overseas nickel ore prices, slow - down of stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation, the nickel price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply is increasing, demand is stable overall, and it is short - term strengthened by sentiment [1]. - For polysilicon, the "sales price not lower than cost" supports the market, but the expected resumption of production in August may increase the surplus, facing pressure near the previous high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, total inventory has decreased after 8 weeks of accumulation, and there is an upward driving force for the price under the expectation of inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review US data is weak, interest rate cut expectations rise, trade wars are repeated, and the Fed's objectivity is questioned, leading to a rise in the gold price [2]. Basic Logic Trump criticizes Powell for late interest rate cuts, there are uncertainties in the EU - US trade agreement, US data is below expectations, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is high, with a possible 50 - basis - point cut if data worsens. Short - term tariff risks subside, but long - term, the debt issuance process accelerates, central banks buy gold, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remains unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains [3]. Strategy Recommendation The gold price rebounds, with clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver fluctuates and rebounds in the short - term, with a trading range of 9000 - 9300. Both fundamental logic and market trends support long - term long positions [4]. Copper Market Review The Shanghai copper price tests the 78,000 - yuan mark again [7]. Industry Logic Recently, there have been continuous disturbances in copper concentrate supply, and the processing fee TC is - 42.5 dollars/ton. There is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In July, the domestic copper smelting start - up rate was 88.19%, and the electrolytic copper output increased significantly. Short - term, domestic spot circulation is tight, but consumption is in the off - season and downstream demand is weak. After the US copper product tariff is implemented, domestic copper export demand will be under pressure, and the back - flow of COMEX copper inventory to LME's US warehouses has led to a large increase in LME copper inventory [7]. Strategy Recommendation Due to weak US economic data, increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a 14,000 - ton increase in LME copper inventory, the London copper price weakens and drives the Shanghai copper price down. Short - term, wait for copper to fully correct and try long near 77,500. Long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and copper is a strategic resource, so it is long - term bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [77,000, 79,000], and the London copper price in the range of [9550, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates at a low level [10]. Industry Logic In 2025, zinc ore supply is loose. In July, the domestic refined zinc output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to continue to increase in August. Zinc ore processing fees are rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is high. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, floods, and the traditional consumption off - season, enterprise start - up rates are weak [10]. Strategy Recommendation With loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, over - expected refined zinc production in July, and a demand off - season, hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [21,800, 22,600], and the London zinc price in the range of [2650, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review The aluminum price is under pressure, and the alumina price rebounds and then falls [13]. Industry Logic For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment eases. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate decreased, and the demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, the import volume is high, the port inventory increases, the domestic production capacity is approaching 9000 tons, and the supply - demand is in a loose pattern. The electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory accumulates again [14]. Strategy Recommendation Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of [20,000 - 20,700] [15]. Nickel Market Review The nickel price has weak rebounds, and the stainless steel price faces pressure when rebounding [17]. Industry Logic Overseas, the macro - environment eases. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines continues to decline, NPI smelters face cost inversion and losses, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation improves limitedly, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production cut intensity weakens, and inventory pressure reappears in the off - season. Although the overall inventory has decreased, the terminal consumption is in the off - season, and there is still a supply - demand surplus [18]. Strategy Recommendation Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream inventory changes, and the main nickel contract is expected to operate in the range of [118,000 - 121,000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review The main contract LC2511 increases in position and decreases in price, completing the contract change, with a decline of more than 2% [21]. Industry Logic The fundamentals improve marginally. The total inventory stops accumulating after 8 weeks, and the inventory starts to transfer from upstream to intermediate links due to the resonance rise of futures and spot prices. Domestic production decreases after 9 weeks of increase. In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles declines year - on - year, and only the energy - storage market has some growth. The compliance risk of lithium mine mining licenses in Jiangxi becomes the focus of the lithium carbonate game, and the renewal of leading enterprises' mining licenses will have a great impact on the market. In August, the production plan of cathode material factories increases, and the supply - demand situation may improve [22]. Strategy Recommendation There is still speculation about supply, so try long on dips in the range of [66,500 - 70,500] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。基本面体现淡季特征，市场情绪逐渐降温，后 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 期行情或切换产业逻辑，中期或有回调，短期在原料限产等消息支撑下或 | | | | 有反弹。【3190，3250】 | | | | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场情绪总体降温，中期价 | | | | 格中枢或下移，短期在原料限产等消息支撑下或有反弹。【3420，3470】 | | | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端发货明显减量，到货恢复性增加。港口 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 去库，钢厂库存增加。基本面中性偏强，反内卷交易告一段落，基本面主 | | | | 导下，矿价坚挺。【770,810】 | | | | 市场整体情绪有所降温，但焦煤限产等消息仍然会对盘面形成阶段性影响。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", while some are rated as "Bearish" [1][2] Core Views - The supply surplus pressure of crude oil is rising, and the oil price is falling [1][3] - LPG follows the decline of oil price [1][9] - For L, the number of restarted devices is increasing, and it is cautiously bearish [1][15] - PP has weak supply and demand, and short positions should be held [1][22] - PVC's trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is cautiously bearish [1][29] - PX has a tight supply - demand balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad, and it is cautiously bearish [1][35] - PTA has a tight supply - demand balance expected to be loose, and it is cautiously bearish [1][39] - MEG has a tight supply - demand balance, but the macro - sentiment has faded, and it is cautiously bearish [1][43] - The spot price of glass is lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [1][47] - The inventory of soda ash turns from decreasing to increasing, and the futures price center falls [1][52] - The registered warehouse receipts of caustic soda increase, and the futures price center moves down [1][57] - Methanol's supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, and there is no unexpected news, and it is cautiously bearish [1][62] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.31%, and SC down 2.14% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half. The oil price center still has room to decline, and the key support level is around $60 [6] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. US crude oil production increased in May. Demand in Shandong independent refineries decreased. US commercial crude oil and strategic reserve increased, while gasoline inventory decreased and distillate inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [500 - 515] [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 4, the PG main contract closed at 3,921 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. The supply increased slightly, and the demand from downstream industries was mixed. The inventory situation was complex [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3800 - 3900] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,279 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 89 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Most devices have restarted, and the supply pressure has increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the restocking power is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,074 yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 6 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. The inventory of polyolefin petrochemicals of two major companies has risen, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The production capacity will be released in the third quarter [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,981 yuan/ton, and the Changzhou basis was - 121 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, but the supply will increase in August due to less maintenance and new capacity release. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [32] PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [36] - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing but still high. There is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities during callbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6810] [38] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [40] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase due to new device production. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand balance in August is expected to be loose [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4730] [42] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrival and import volumes are still low. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4420] [46] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price was lowered, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no unexpected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is structurally differentiated, and the inventory has decreased mainly due to transfer [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was lowered, and the futures price was differentiated [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and short - selling funds have increased. Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory has started to increase again [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the price to correct [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The flake caustic soda spot price was raised, and the futures price was differentiated [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and some downstream alumina plants resumed production. Inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the macro - policy expectation has cooled down [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided [61] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are restarting or increasing loads, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell call options under low - volatility conditions, and conduct a MA9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2365 - 2395] [64]