1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on dips [1] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1] - **PVC**: Short - term bullish [1] - **PX**: Bullish [1] - **PTA**: Bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Glass**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - end oil price stabilizes and rebounds, with valuation repaired. Long positions should be taken profit due to potential cost - end weakness [1][13] - **L**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced. Consider going long on dips [1][17] - **PP**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains. Consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1][22] - **PVC**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices. Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment [1][27] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized. Short - term bullish [1][31] - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery. Consider going long on dips [2][35] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Bullish due to low inventory and cost support [2][39] - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [2][42] - **Urea**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good. 01 long positions can be held, and call options can be sold [2][46] - **Asphalt**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases. Consider shorting with a light position [3] - **Glass**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient. Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid. Short - term bullish [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 22, WTI rose 0.22%, Brent fell 0.66%, and SC rose 0.88% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost short - term prices, but long - term supply surplus pressure increases. Focus on the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PG main contract closed at 4392 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [11] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Follow the oil price trend [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions due to potential cost - end weakness, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips, and focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on short - term pullbacks, and focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices, but supply and inventory pressure exist [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, and focus on the range of [5000 - 5100] for V [27] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6940 - 7050] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and consider buying TA on dips. Focus on the range of [4850 - 4930] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Low inventory and cost support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips and the 9 - 1 calendar spread. Focus on the range of [4470 - 4550] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [45] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1730 - 1760] for UR01 [47] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [3] Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Report's Core View - The steel market has been declining but may rebound in the short term due to factors like policy disturbances and Fed's loose signals. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term because of the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Coke and coking coal may see short - term rebounds due to safety inspection expectations after the Fujian coal mine accident. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon may also have short - term rebounds influenced by macro - sentiment but should be sold at high prices in the medium term [1][3][7][11][15][19] 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **View**: Currently, blast furnace profits are good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high pig iron production. However, demand is weak, and construction steel sales are at a low level. The limit on blast furnaces in Tangshan during the military parade was lower than expected, and supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and the market has declined. But there may be policy disturbances later, and it may rebound in the short term after the Fed's loose signals [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of blast furnace limits in Tangshan during the military parade is limited, and supply - demand has a loose trend [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The futures are weak, but after continuous declines, the short - term downside space may be limited, and there may be a short - term rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - **View**: Pig iron production has increased again. Environmental protection limits are less than expected, steel mills have finished restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments have both increased, with neutral fundamentals. The increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September is bullish for commodity prices in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][8] Coke - **View**: Coke spot has started the seventh round of price hikes but may face game - playing with steel mills later. Coke enterprises' profits have improved and turned positive. Supply - demand is relatively balanced, and production and inventory are stable. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, but the Fujian coal mine accident brings safety inspection expectations, supporting coking coal and leading to a short - term rebound [1][11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][12] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month and lower than last year. Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly recently. Mine inventories have stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed. Pig iron production is still high, and raw material demand is stable. The market sentiment has faded, and futures have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, with downward repair space in the medium term. However, it may rebound in the short term due to safety inspection expectations [1][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][16] Ferromanganese - **View**: The fundamentals are becoming looser, but there is still short - term demand resilience under a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory in the statement continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The combined shipments of the three major countries of manganese ore this period are 104.5 tons, a significant increase from the previous period, mainly from South Africa and Australia. Arrivals decreased slightly month - on - month, and port inventory is 446.6 tons, basically the same as last week [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Manganese ore prices have not significantly declined, and the cost side has some support. It may rebound in the short term affected by macro - sentiment, but the medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20] Ferrosilicon - **View**: This week, production continued to increase while demand declined, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. Enterprise inventories continue to decline month - on - month but are still at a high absolute level, and the overall supply pressure remains [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. The medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans Meal**: With neutral climate expectations and smooth US soybean planting weather, China's soybean and beans meal are in the inventory accumulation stage. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report adjusted the final soybean production and ending stocks downward. Beans meal is under pressure for adjustment, and short - long opportunities after adjustment can be considered in the next one to two weeks [1][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of reduced yield in Canada. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation. After adjustment, short - long opportunities after stabilization can be considered, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are favorable for palm oil consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is negative for the market, but the international cotton price valuation is low. Zheng cotton's short - term focus is on supply before new cotton listing. Buying on dips can be considered [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a certain reduction. Before November, the market speculation around the opening price is long, and short - long opportunities can be considered [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The current supply pressure is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. Long - position opportunities for far - month contracts can be considered, and short - selling on a short - term basis is not recommended blindly [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Beans Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of beans meal (main contract daily closing) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 3097.14 yuan/ton, down 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons from last week; the beans meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment in the next one to two weeks, paying attention to the final US soybean area and yield data [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 2627.89 yuan/ton, down 47.37 yuan or 1.77% [6]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment and stabilization, but be cautious when chasing long positions [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [8]. - **Export Information**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, are 869,780 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last month [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a buying - on - dips strategy, paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil this month [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract of Zheng cotton, CF2509, increases by 0.11% to 14030 yuan/ton; the domestic spot price drops by 0.19% to 15211 yuan/ton; the main contract of ICE cotton drops by 0.19% to 67.47 cents/pound [11]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: In the US, the drought area in the cotton - growing region expands, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton increases by 2% to 55%. In China, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to exceed 740 million tons, and the import volume in July is 5 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreases by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [11][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider，buying on dips due to the low international cotton price valuation and the supply - tight situation before new cotton listing [13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increases by 0.39% to 11470 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production and Inventory Information**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreases by 167 tons to 9519 tons [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities as the market speculation around the opening price is long before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreases by 0.18% to 13765 yuan/ton; the domestic live pig spot price drops by 0.07% to 13820 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: The planned August slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increases by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increases, but the increment of breeding sows slows down. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [16][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not blindly short - sell on a short - term basis. Consider establishing long positions for far - month contracts on dips [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - **Manganese silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - **Iron ore**: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - **Coking coal**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - **Price data**: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - **Fundamentals**: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - **Fundamentals**: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese silicon**: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish for mid-term, short-term rebound possible [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high pig iron production. However, the demand side remains weak, and construction steel trading volume is hovering at a low level. The blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan during the military parade were lower than expected, and supply and demand are expected to become looser. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of hot-rolled coils have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan during the military parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand have a loosening trend. The "anti-involution" atmosphere has subsided, and the market has continued to decline. However, there may still be policy disturbances later, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, pig iron production has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both increased, and the inventories at ports and steel mills have increased simultaneously. The restocking of steel mills has driven the price to be firm in stages. The economic data in July was weak, and the finished product segment continued the off-season characteristics. The valuation of finished products is relatively low, which forms short-term price support, and the ore price rebounds with the steel price [1][8]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has started the seventh round of price increases, but it may face game - playing from steel mills later. The profits of coke enterprises have improved, and the overall profit has turned positive. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally relatively balanced, and the production and inventory are relatively stable with little change. The "anti-involution" atmosphere in the current market has subsided, and coking coal has been downward - adjusted, but there may be a short - term rebound after a rapid decline [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month, and the absolute level is lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month - on - month, and the transfer speed to the downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of pig iron production is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, the market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has a premium compared with the warehouse receipt cost. There is room for downward adjustment in the medium term, but there may be a short - term rebound after a rapid decline [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals tend to be loose. Under the new round of concentrated demand release, the short - term demand resilience still exists. The total inventory level in the statement continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The total shipment volume of the three major countries in this period is 1.045 million tons, a significant increase compared with the previous period, with the increase mainly coming from South Africa and Australia. The arrivals have decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory is 4.466 million tons, basically the same as last week. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals tend to be loose, the enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but the absolute level is still high, and the warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared with last week, with obvious overall supply pressure [1][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar futures prices: 01 contract at 3207 (down 1), 05 contract at 3245 (down 14), 10 contract at 3132 (up 6); hot - rolled coil futures prices: 01 contract at 3385 (down 18), 05 contract at 3382 (down 21), 10 contract at 3402 (down 14). Spot prices of rebar in different regions have different changes, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions have generally decreased by 20 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: There may be a short - term rebound due to possible policy disturbances for rebar; for hot - rolled coil, after continuous decline, the short - term downside space may be limited, and there may be a short - term rebound [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices: 01 contract at 769 (down 2), 05 contract at 747 (down 3), 09 contract at 786 (down 3). The prices of different iron ore powders in the spot market have also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term participation [9]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: Coke futures prices: 1 - month contract at 1678.0 (down 30.5), 5 - month contract at 1767.5 (down 34.5), 9 - month contract at 1633.0 (down 2.0). The production and inventory data of coke show relatively stable trends, and the profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: Coking coal futures prices: 1 - month contract at 1162.5 (down 32.0), 5 - month contract at 1201.0 (down 29.0), 9 - month contract at 1044.5 (down 7.0). The production and inventory data of coking coal reflect certain trends, and the port coking coal inventory has decreased [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [17]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Data Information**: Ferromanganese futures prices: 01 contract at 283 (down 78), 05 contract at (down 70), 09 contract at 5756 (down 86); ferrosilicon futures prices: 01 contract at 5600 (down 52), 05 contract at 5728 (down 52), 09 contract at 5446 (down 54). The production and inventory data of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises have different changes [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term and maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term; for ferrosilicon, short - selling participation in the short - term after a short - term rebound due to over - decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to geopolitical easing and increasing supply - side pressure, but may rebound in the short - term due to unexpected inventory drops [1][5]. - LPG prices have rebounded in the short - term due to cost stabilization and valuation repair, but investors should take profit on long positions due to potential cost weakening [1]. - L prices may improve due to expected production cuts in South Korea and approaching peak demand season, and investors can consider buying on dips [1]. - PP prices face limited rebound space due to weak industry expectations and high warehouse receipts, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - PVC prices are under pressure due to increasing warehouse receipts, inventory accumulation, and policy - affected exports, and short positions should be held [1]. - PX prices are expected to rise as the domestic chemical industry's "anti - involution" may start, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [1]. - PTA prices may increase with the approaching consumption peak season and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices may rise due to low inventory and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [2]. - Methanol prices may increase as negative factors are expected to subside, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract [2]. - Urea prices may be supported by potential fertilizer exports to India, and long positions in the 01 contract can be held [2]. - Asphalt prices are under pressure due to sufficient raw material supply and increasing supply - demand imbalance, and short positions can be lightly established [2]. - Glass prices are expected to decline due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and increasing inventory, and short positions should be held [2]. - Soda ash prices are likely to fall due to high supply, inventory accumulation, and industrial hedging pressure, and short positions should be held [2]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.52%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC down 0.64% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: US crude inventory unexpectedly decreased, but in the long - term, the support from the peak season is weakening, and OPEC+ production increase will put pressure on prices. Supply from Azerbaijan decreased, and India's imports hit a low. US commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories changed [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 20, the PG main contract closed at 4315 yuan/ton, up 0.02% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the valuation was repaired. Supply decreased, and demand from PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil showed different trends. Inventory decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: Be vigilant about the weakening of cost - end oil prices and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 27 day - on - day. Spot prices also declined, and warehouse receipts increased [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Plastic accounts for 54% of ethylene demand, and South Korea's production cut expectation supports the market. Current supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to pick up [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [17][18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [21][22]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry expectations are weak, and high warehouse receipts suppress the rebound. Supply is affected by high - level maintenance, and demand starts slowly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7150] for PP [24][25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, exports in July exceeded expectations, but new capacity will be released in August, and exports may slow down. Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 weeks [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [31][32]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side slightly increased production. Demand is weak but expected to improve. PX inventory is still high, but the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations may support prices [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, look for low - buying opportunities, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6810 - 6900] for PX511 [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA processing fees are low, and supply pressure may increase in the future. Demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. TA inventory is still high [41]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, buy put options, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4810] for TA01 [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, but demand is expected to improve with the peak season. Inventory is low, and "anti - involution" policies and macro - expectations may support prices [45]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, do not chase the market, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4440 - 4490] for EG01 [46]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton [48]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost is supported by coal [49]. - **Strategy**: Continue to look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract and sell put options on the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [50]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as the operating rate is expected to rise. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Inventory is high [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract and sell put options. Focus on the range of [1780 - 1810] for UR01 [55]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 20, the main contract closed at 3454 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [56][57]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Inventory decreased slightly [58]. - **Strategy**: Lightly establish short positions. Focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [59]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 day - on - day. The market price in Hubei remained flat [61][62]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, downstream orders are low, and inventory is increasing [63]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 day - on - day. The market price in Shahe remained flat [66][67]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remains high, inventory is accumulating again, and industrial hedging pressure exists [68][69]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1290 - 1350] for SA [69].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the varieties (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs) are rated as "short-term bullish" [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short-term bullish, but chasing long positions requires caution. The final area and yield data are awaited for new guidance [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month should be monitored [1][7] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips due to the low valuation of international cotton prices. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish. The market is recommended to buy on dips for now, with the strategy expected to be strong first and then weak [1][14] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The planting weather of US soybeans is generally smooth. China is in the inventory accumulation stage for soybeans and soybean meal, with the inventory accumulation rate expected to slow down in August. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The national average spot price was 3101.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. As of August 15, the national port soybean inventory was 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 680.4 million tons, a decrease of 30.16 million tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons from last week [2][3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a bullish and volatile view, but be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the final area and yield data [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. China's oil mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are decreasing month-on-month, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level year-on-year. The 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the anti-dumping deposit on rapeseed provide strong support for the rapeseed meal price [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2627 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88%. The national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.40%. As of August 15, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Pay attention to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The export data in the first 20 days of August are good [1] - **Inventory and Export**: As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 20 was 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][7] Cotton - **Market Situation**: The short-term soil moisture of US cotton continues to improve, which is negative for the market. The demand side still faces a shortage. However, the international cotton price is at a relatively low valuation level. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 0.50% to 14055 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.03% to 15239 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract decreased by 0.04% to 67.53 cents/pound. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips. Pay attention to the potential hurricane threat to US cotton in the future and the "Golden September and Silver October" market performance of the downstream [1][11] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: It is initially estimated that the total expected production of the Xinjiang southern Xinjiang red date market in the 2025/26 season is in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons, with a confirmed production reduction, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than that in the 2023/24 season. In the short term, the market speculation period around the purchase price before November is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is beneficial to the bullish trend [1][14] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, decreased by 0.77% to 11530 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, but still higher than the same period [12][13] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The strategy is expected to be strong first and then weak. Currently, the market is recommended to buy on dips [1][14] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased by 5.26% month-on-month, and there is still supply pressure. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets from January to July continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second half of the year will still have room for growth. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 40.43 million, and there will still be relatively high supply pressure until May 2026. However, the incremental capacity of large-scale breeding enterprises is basically zero, and the inventory of small and medium-sized farmers has even decreased slightly [1][16][17] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreased by 0.72% to 13775 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig inventory was 37.6332 million, an increase of 1.17% from last month; the slaughter volume was 10.9168 million, a decrease of 3.01% from last month [15][16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].