1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to be in a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. Sino - US trade tariffs are the key cost support for bean meal. In the face of weak fundamentals and cost support, it should be treated as a large - range market. Attention should be paid to the results of this week's Sino - US trade negotiations [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to be in a large - range oscillation. Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is dry. In the domestic market, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories in oil mills are decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and low imports support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market is not conducive to consumption. Attention should be paid to the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations and Sino - Australian progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Caution should be exercised when chasing long positions. The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% in June, which is positive for the market. Indonesia's plan to achieve the B40 target and conduct B50 research is also positive. However, after a series of positive factors, the market may return to the July fundamentals, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks, and opportunities to go long after price stabilization can be considered [1][7]. - **Cotton**: A cautious bearish view is taken. In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly affected the soil moisture, but the overall cotton situation is still good. In the domestic market, the sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, but there may be potential weather disturbances in August. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment power of downstream products has slowed down. The demand from textile enterprises is at a five - year low, and attention should be paid to high - selling opportunities and the 11 - 1 reverse spread [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: A cautious bearish view is also taken. The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected significant yield reduction due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon has not occurred. High inventory persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. The implementation of the floor - purchase orders by some enterprises is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling at high prices [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: A cautious bullish view is held. In the short term, the slowdown of the live - pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment of the breeding end support the price bottom. However, there is still a back - end supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the long - and medium - term over - capacity situation remains. For the 09 contract, beware of further callback risks; for the 01 contract and far - month contracts, consider going long at low prices or adopting the cross - year reverse spread [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main bean - meal futures contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,943.43 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The national average soybean - pressing profit was - 173.9096 yuan/ton, down 21.27 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.979 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 252,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons; the bean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main rapeseed - meal futures contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,641.58 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The national average rapeseed spot - pressing profit was - 620.811 yuan/ton, down 23.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed - meal inventory was 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main palm - oil futures contract was 8,946 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,993 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The weekly commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of those bullish on palm oil increased from 53% to 76% week - on - week, the proportion of those neutral decreased from 29% to 24%, and the proportion of those bearish decreased from 18% to 0 [6]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract CF2509 was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton. The spinning profit of textile enterprises was - 1,496.70 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the international market, the non - drought rate of US cotton areas decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In India, the sown cotton area increased by 7% year - on - year. In Brazil, the new - cotton harvest progress reached 16.7%. In the domestic market, the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main red - date futures contract CJ2601 was 10,695 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons [12]. - **Production Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than normal (less than 10% reduction), lower than the previous expectation [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main live - pig futures contract Lh2509 was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,810 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live - pig存栏量 increased by 11,520 to 3.71993 million, and the出栏量 increased by 167,700 to 1.12559 million [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the average weight of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the price is supported by the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half - year出栏量. In the long term, the policy - driven elimination of backward production capacity has limited coverage, and the industry has not yet entered the stage of full - scale loss and capacity elimination [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress; some chemical products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, and policies, showing different trends of rise and fall [1][2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress [1]. - **Basic logic**: The oil market is currently in a situation of weak expectations and strong reality, with certain support below. However, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day; the EU introduced a new round of sanctions against Russia, reducing the upper limit of Russian crude oil sanctions to about $50 per barrel. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% from the previous month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February; China's crude oil imports in June were 49.888 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.8 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve SPR decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, due to the impact of new energy and the expansion cycle of OPEC+, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short term, the daily line rebounds, but the upside pressure is strong. The strategy is to lightly lay out short positions and buy call options to protect the positions. SC focuses on the range of [510 - 525] [5]. LPG - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG are okay, leading to a rebound in LPG [1]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is that the cost-side oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG improve marginally. Currently, the downstream chemical demand is rising, and the basis is at a high level, so the short-term upward momentum of LPG increases. As of July 28, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous period. In terms of cost and profit, as of July 28, the profit of PDH devices remained unchanged from the previous period, while the profit of alkylation devices decreased by 12.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. On the supply side, as of the week of July 25, the total LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.04 million tons compared with the previous week, and the civil LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.18 million tons. On the demand side, as of the week of July 25, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased by 1.35pct, 1.38pct, and 1.99pct respectively compared with the previous period. On the inventory side, as of the week of July 25, the refinery inventory increased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, and the port inventory decreased by 16.59 million tons [6][7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, after the geopolitical risks are released, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. Technically and in the short term, the daily line stabilizes and rebounds. It is recommended to sell put options. PG focuses on the range of [3950 - 4050] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure [1]. - **Basic logic**: The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The coal-based proportion of plastics is 20%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 14%. Most of the production capacity has been shut down for a long time or replaced. Attention should be paid to policy changes. The marginal improvement of agricultural film operations should be noted, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of raw material replenishment. The restart of devices increases, and the output is expected to increase this week. In the medium and long term, high production limits the rebound space [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. L focuses on the range of [7300 - 7450] [10][11]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The number of warehouse receipts increases, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases. The coal-based proportion of PP is 19%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 8%. Most of them have been shut down for a long time or replaced. The demand fails to keep up, and the supply is under continuous pressure. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative exports increased by 21% year-on-year, and the export profit margin is relatively high in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future. In the medium and long term, the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [13][14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. PP focuses on the range of [7050 - 7250] [14][15]. PVC - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously. The proportion of old PVC production capacity is 11%. Attention should be paid to the policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks. The 900,000 - ton devices of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development have started trial - runs one after another. The weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of warehouse receipt registration [18][19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. V focuses on the range of [5100 - 5300] [19][20]. PX - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity". Attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [1]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, there are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. Some domestic devices are under maintenance or have reduced loads, while others have increased loads. In August, some devices are planned to increase loads or restart. Overseas device operating rates are temporarily stable. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is positive. The gasoline cracking spread and the comparison between aromatics reforming and oil blending show that the cost of aromatics reforming is more cost - effective. The weekly output of PX has decreased slightly, and the international PX device operating rate has declined. The import volume in June is at a relatively low level in the past five years. On the demand side, there are some changes in PTA device maintenance and new device production. The PTA spot and futures processing fees have increased. The weekly operating rate and output of PTA remain stable and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. In general, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, the PX inventory is decreasing but still at a high level, the PXN is not low, the basis is strong, and there are still positive factors under the policy [21][22]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. PX focuses on the range of [6910 - 7030] [22][23]. PTA/PR - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. Recently, there are relatively few changes in device operations. Later, new PTA devices will be put into production, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. The demand side is seasonally weak. Stimulated by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The tight - balance expectation of TA fundamentals is loosening. In the short term, affected by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, there are positive opportunities on the supply side, but the TA processing fee is neutral. Be cautious about going long at low levels [1]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side device changes are relatively small recently, but new PTA devices will be put into production later, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand side is seasonally weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The PTA fundamentals are expected to change from a tight balance to a looser situation. In the short term, there are positive factors on the supply side due to the policy, but the TA processing fee is neutral [24][25]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on dips. TA focuses on the range of [4800 - 4880] [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still lower than the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders continue to decline. In July, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the low inventory also supports the futures price. Recently, there is still positive sentiment under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", and the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still at a low level compared with the same period. Some domestic devices have restarted, while others are under maintenance or have reduced loads. Overseas, some devices have restarted, and some have maintenance plans. The weekly maintenance loss of MEG is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the weekly operating rate has increased, and the weekly output has increased slightly. The demand side is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The polyester product inventory has decreased, but the terminal weaving is still weak. The social and port inventories of MEG are at a low level compared with the same period [26][27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG focuses on the range of [4420 - 4580] [27][28]. Glass - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The policy expectation cools down, and the futures price fluctuates greatly [2]. - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, the market has been fermenting around the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, which has reignited market sentiment, and related varieties have continued to be strong, and the price of glass has risen significantly. At the same time, the strength of coal - related varieties has led to the expectation of cost increase. The fundamentals of glass have improved, the corporate profitability has improved, the output has increased slightly, especially the corporate inventory has continued to decline to a five - month low, and the comprehensive demand for glass in the off - season has remained resilient, significantly boosting market confidence. In the short term, the futures price is boosted by the macro - policy, and the continuous inventory reduction enhances market confidence. As long as the policy expectation logic is not falsified, the price center will continue to move up. In general, the futures price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate and production capacity sectors, the futures price may continue to rise. If the demand remains weak, supply contraction is needed to have a strong upward space. In late July, it is a period of intensive macro - policies, the macro - sentiment repair is difficult to be falsified, but the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price fluctuates widely [30][31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1170 - 1230] [31]. Soda Ash - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The exchange has issued a risk warning, and the price fluctuates widely [2]. - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the trading atmosphere in the glass and coal markets has become stronger, which has boosted the industrial sentiment and driven up the futures price of soda ash. The inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high, but the market reaction has been calm, and the domestic spot market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. Recently, in the soda ash market, some devices are under maintenance while others are restarting. The overall supply has slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the soda ash output has increased. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to accumulate, reaching a new historical high, and the market supply surplus pressure is heavy. The downstream support is general, with only terminal rigid - demand consumption. The short - term demand in the glass market is mediocre, some production lines in the photovoltaic glass industry have been cold - repaired, and the demand in the light - soda industry remains at a low level, maintaining a just - in - time procurement model, which has little impact on boosting the demand for soda ash. Recently, the soda ash futures price has been mainly affected by commodity sentiment fluctuations, and the fundamentals are difficult to provide sufficient driving force. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and technical operations [33][34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased month - on - month. Follow the sentiment of the coal and glass futures markets. The exchange has issued a risk warning, the price fluctuates greatly, and the price falls back under the pressure of the annual line. There is a short - term callback risk. SA focuses on the range of [1280 - 1350] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The upstream and downstream are linked, and the price corrects from a high level [2]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, the current average capacity utilization rate is 84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. Some previously reduced - production or shut - down devices in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China have gradually increased their loads, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to varying degrees. In Central China, the low price of liquid chlorine has led to losses for alkali plants, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Overall, the operation is at a high level, and with the expected commissioning of new production capacity, the supply tends to be saturated. In terms of demand, the production of the main downstream product, alumina, has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in Zhejiang has been continuously low, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for rigid demand. In May, the export scale shrank, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. In terms of cost and profit, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the subsidy for liquid chlorine has decreased, and the overall profit of the chlor - alkali industry has shown an upward trend. Currently, the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. In general, the weekly supply - demand fundamentals have weakened, the device maintenance has returned, the macro - policy expectation has cooled down, the alumina futures price has corrected, the subsidy for liquid

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, asphalt, and propylene are all rated as "cautiously bearish", except for soda ash which is rated as "wide - range oscillation" and glass, caustic soda which are rated as "short - term correction" [1][2] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Entering the second half of the peak season, the pressure to increase production rises, and oil prices weaken [1][3] - LPG: Dragged by the cost side, with fair fundamentals, it follows the decline of oil prices [1][6] - L: Market sentiment cools down, with short - term supply pressure increasing and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [1][9] - PP: Market sentiment cools down, with demand lagging and supply under pressure in the short term, and high production pressure in the third quarter restricting the upside [1][12] - PVC: Market sentiment cools down, with weak spot price follow - up, inventory accumulation, and a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [1][15] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with macro - policy positives still remaining, and opportunities to buy on dips are worth attention [1][19] - PTA/PR: Recent device changes are relatively small, with expected increased supply pressure in the future and seasonal weakness in demand. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [1][22] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1][24] - Glass: Policy expectations cool down, and after a sharp rise, the volatility increases. There is a risk of correction [2][27] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment is boosted, but there is a large inventory de - stocking pressure, with wide - range oscillations and a short - term correction risk [2][30] - Caustic soda: Supply returns, inventory accumulates, and there is a high - level correction pressure due to the cooling of market sentiment and the narrowing of liquid chlorine subsidies [2][33] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, demand is relatively good, and the market sentiment has declined. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][36] - Urea: The device operating load remains high, demand is weak domestically but good in exports. There is bottom support from coal prices, and attention should be paid to opportunities to short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The spot market is weak, and attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On July 25, WTI decreased by 1.32%, Brent decreased by 1.02%, and SC increased by 0.85% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. OPEC's production increase pressure is gradually released, and the key variable on the supply side is the change in US production. In terms of supply, there are new sanctions on Russia, and Norway's oil production has decreased. In terms of demand, China's imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory has decreased [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, the oil price is weak. It is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 510] [5] LPG - **Market conditions**: On July 25, the PG main contract closed at 4037 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [6] - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is the main drag, while the fundamental situation has marginally improved. Downstream chemical demand has rebounded, the basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. In terms of supply, the commodity volume has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil have increased. In terms of inventory, refinery inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [7] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. In the short - term, it is weak, and previous long positions should pay attention to risks. Pay attention to the range of PG [3900 - 4000] [8] L - **Market conditions**: The prices of L contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [10] - **Basic logic**: The exchange has restricted positions, and the short - term market sentiment has cooled down. The coal - based proportion is 20%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 14%. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and the restart of devices is expected to increase production this week. High production in the long - term restricts the rebound space [11] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [11] PP - **Market conditions**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The coal - based proportion is 19%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 8%. Demand lags, supply is under pressure, and the warehouse receipt is at a high level in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. In the third quarter, high production pressure restricts the upside [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [7050 - 7250] [14] PVC - **Market conditions**: The prices of PVC contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [16] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 11%, the spot price follows up weakly, the basis weakens, and there is short - term policy support at the bottom. Inventory has accumulated for 5 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned, with a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [5200 - 5450] [17] PX - **Market conditions**: The prices of PX contracts have increased, and the spot price has decreased [19] - **Basic logic**: There are few changes in domestic and foreign devices. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread has increased. The international device operating rate has declined, and imports are at a low level in the past five years. Demand changes are small, and inventory is still high. There are still positives under the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy, and attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PX [6850 - 7120] [21] PTA - **Market conditions**: The PTA spot price and contract price have increased [22] - **Basic logic**: There are few device changes recently. There are planned device overhauls and new device commissions in the future. Demand is seasonally weak, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving start - up rates are slightly differentiated. TA social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of TA [4780 - 4960] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: The ethylene glycol spot price and contract price have increased [24] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. There is still positive sentiment from the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of EG [4400 - 4550] [26] Glass - **Market conditions**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has risen sharply, and the basis has weakened [28] - **Basic logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, and the cost is expected to rise. The glass fundamentals have improved, with inventory reaching a five - month low. The short - term price center moves up, and it depends on whether there are substantial policies on real estate and capacity in the long - term [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1230 - 1360] [29] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The heavy - soda ash spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, the basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipt has increased [31] - **Basic logic**: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment of glass and coal is strong, boosting the soda ash futures price. However, the alkali plant inventory has reached a record high, and the supply has slightly increased. The downstream support is general, and the market is mainly affected by commodity sentiment [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1310 - 1430] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The flake caustic soda spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened [34] - **Basic logic**: The supply is approaching saturation, with an increase in the average capacity utilization rate and expected new capacity commissioning. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk, and the inventory has increased. There is a pressure for the futures price to correct from a high level [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SH [2510 - 2630] [35] Methanol - **Market conditions**: The methanol spot price and futures price have increased [36] - **Basic logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with the resumption of domestic overhauled devices and high overseas operating loads. The August arrivals are expected to be high. Demand is relatively good, but there is a risk of negative feedback from high prices. The social inventory has decreased but is still low, and the market sentiment has declined [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of MA [2400 - 2520] Urea - **Basic logic**: The urea device operating load remains high, domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. There is bottom support from coal prices. The short - term domestic fundamentals are still loose, and the market sentiment has declined [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to opportunities to go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of UR [1750 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulation. The cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3540 - 3640] [2] Propylene - **Basic logic**: The coal - based proportion is 20%, the spot market is weak, and the market sentiment has cooled down. Attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PL [6500 - 6700] [2]

【产业库存】本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱，环比下降304.3万重箱或4.69%，同比减少7.74%，连 降5周创今年2月份以来新低，折库存天数26.6天，较上期下降1.3天，尤其库存前期累积明显的华中地区，降幅最为 明显，进一步提振市场情绪。 【成本利润】成本方面，石油焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为1052、1008、1438元/吨，环比变化分别为-1 、+4、-4元/吨；生产利润分别为53.4、128.9、-168.4元/吨，环比变化分别为+58.18、+7.4、+10.54元/吨。 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 纯碱：交易所发布风险函，警惕价格回调 分析师：何慧 咨询账号：Z0011420 中辉期货研究院 2025.07.25 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 F03104066 李 倩 F03134406 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 【供应端】本周浮法玻璃行业开工率为75%，周环比下降0.34个百分点；产能利用率为79.48%，周环比增加0.57%， 日产量为15.9万吨，周环比小幅增加0.73%；周产量110.81万 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Individual metal品种ratings are as follows: gold - high - level adjustment; silver - high - level adjustment; copper - rebound under pressure; zinc - rebound under pressure; lead - under pressure; tin - under pressure; aluminum - under pressure; nickel - weak; industrial silicon - correction; polysilicon - correction; lithium carbonate - cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping. Silver follows gold and basic metals in adjustment, with long - term upward trend intact. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to various factors such as inventory changes and supply - demand imbalances. Nickel price is weak, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in correction. Lithium carbonate has a cautiously bullish outlook with potential for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Metal (Gold and Silver) Gold - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Short - term tariff risks are reduced, but long - term factors like weak dollar trend, loose monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases support long - term strategic allocation [1] - **Price range**: [765 - 784] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on support around 765, long - term trend remains unchanged [3] Silver - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Follows gold and basic metals in adjustment. Economic demand supports, and long - term upward trend is intact due to fiscal stimulus for industrial demand [1] - **Price range**: [9050 - 9350] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on 9050 support, treat as short - term adjustment [3] Group 4: Summary by Metal (Copper) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Overseas inventory accumulation, potential US copper import tariff, and high electrolytic copper production drag down prices. However, long - term supply shortage and strategic importance support long - term bullish view [1][5] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper [78000, 79500], London copper [9700, 9850] dollars/ton [1][6] - **Strategy**: Wait for price to stabilize and then look for buying opportunities at low prices [6] Group 5: Summary by Metal (Zinc) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Abundant supply in 2025, increased domestic smelting capacity, and weak demand during off - season lead to price pressure [1][8] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc [22500, 23000], London zinc [2700, 2900] dollars/ton [1][9] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [9] Group 6: Summary by Metal (Aluminum) - **Core view**: Under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Domestic consumption is weak, with inventory accumulation and declining downstream processing industry's operating rate. Alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][10][11] - **Price range**: Shanghai aluminum [20000 - 20800] [11] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes [11] Group 7: Summary by Metal (Nickel) - **Core view**: Weak [1] - **Logic**: Uncertain overseas environment, potential high tariffs on Russian nickel, and weak domestic supply - demand situation with inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1][12][13] - **Price range**: [120000 - 123000] [13] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, pay attention to inventory changes [13] Group 8: Summary by Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Logic**: Supply disruptions exist, and the expected annual surplus is reduced. However, beware of price fluctuations due to market sentiment [1][14][15] - **Price range**: [77000 - 80000] [15] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see [15]

20250726棉系周报： 宏观转暖不敌供需弱预期 仍需警惕回调风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年7月26日 周度综述：摘要 2 7月USDA供需平衡表总览——中美产量调增超消费，全球期末库存调增 | 棉花供需平衡表(7月) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024/25 | 项目名称 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | | 2025/26 (6月) | 2025/26 (7月) | 环比变化 | 同比变化 1) | | 中国 | | 581.3 | 669.5 | 595.5 | 696.6 | 653.1 | 674.9 | 21.8 | -21.8 | | 印度 | | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 511.6 | 0.0 | -10.9 | | 巴西 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。周五国内豆粕价格收 | | | | 跌，市场静待中美贸易谈判新进展。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双 | | | | 重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。关注本周中美贸易谈判结果。主力【2970，3040】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: With the decline of coking coal, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the rebar price has followed suit. In terms of supply and demand, both the output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. After a short - term correction, the market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase [1][4]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions. The market is trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The decline of coking coal has driven the steel price down, and it may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and there will be further shipment increments. The port inventory has increased. On the market, after the position - limit of coking coal, the price has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned cautious. The short - term market may decline [1][6]. - **Coke**: After the rapid rise of coking coal, the increase of coke has lagged behind. Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable. With the rapid decline of coking coal, coke has followed the correction [1][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has tightened the position - opening limit for coking coal, and the market sentiment has calmed down, with the market price dropping rapidly. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection on over - production on output may be limited. After the market's correction, it may enter a calm period, and the market may decline periodically due to little change in fundamentals [1][14]. - **Silicomanganese**: The fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by short - term sentiment, the price may still have room to rise [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Last week, both supply and demand increased. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is obvious. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may still be under pressure [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: The latest prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3399 with a rise of 46, and the latest price of hot - rolled coil 01 is 3518 with a rise of 46 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Rebar output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased; hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After a short - term correction, the rebar market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase, and attention should be paid to whether the important meeting at the end of the month will reiterate the anti - involution policy. The hot - rolled coil market may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The price range is [760, 810] [1]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [7]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coke 1 - month contract is 1811.0 with a rise of 25.5 [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1 - month contract is 1318.5 with a rise of 54.0 [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [15]. Iron Alloys - **Price Information**: The latest prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of silicomanganese 01 is 6478 with a rise of 458 [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: For silicomanganese, the output and operating rate have continued to rise, with more restarts in southern regions. For ferrosilicon, the output and operating rate have also continued to rise, with both maintenance and restarts in major production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For silicomanganese, pay attention to the trends of leading varieties such as coking coal; for ferrosilicon, the price may still be under pressure in the medium term [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

1. Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: PVC Weekly Report: Monitor Policy Changes and Reduce Long Positions [1] - Investment Rating: Not explicitly provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PVC market was policy - driven and trended strongly with fluctuations. The V2509 contract fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is deteriorating marginally, but the market is still dominated by policy expectations. Although there are factors restricting the upward movement of the market, such as the release of new production capacity and the emergence of risk - free arbitrage space, given that the policy expectations cannot be falsified, attention should be paid to policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, the PVC futures price fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 4956 and a closing price of 5373. Driven by stable - growth policies and various market news, the price reached a weekly high of 5391 yuan/ton on Friday [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC main contract was 5373 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 436), and the open interest was 860,000 lots (weekly decrease of 124,000), with the de - stocking speed of open interest significantly accelerating [12] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 213 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 116), and the number of warehouse receipts was 54,412 lots (weekly increase of 1771). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [14] - **Calendar Spread**: As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 113 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 6) [17] - **Regional and Variety Spreads**: This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was significantly driven by coal, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed [20] 3.2 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Macro Events**: The market was affected by policies such as stable - growth policies, rumors of coal mine production rectification, and the release of the draft amendment to the Price Law. The overall weekly increase was PVC > energy and chemicals > polyolefins > commodities [21] - **Next Week's Focus**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes [21] 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Production**: In the first quarter, 500,000 tons of new production capacity from Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and a 300,000 - ton ethylene - based device from Shaanxi Jintai was launched at the beginning of June. In July, a total of 900,000 tons of production capacity from Wanhua Fujian and Bohua Development was gradually released [22][23] - **Supply and Demand Data**: The production, import, export, and apparent consumption of PVC from January to December 2025 are presented in the table, with the production showing a cumulative year - on - year increase, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in apparent consumption gradually narrowing [22] 3.4 Supply - This week, the PVC output was 450,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 30, the cumulative year - on - year output increased by 3.9%. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China is expected to reach 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [26] 3.5 Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 42%. The operating rates of profiles and films improved significantly, while the operating rate of pipes declined for three consecutive weeks [28] 3.6 Exports - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC was 1.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%. In May, the domestic PVC export volume was 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21% [31] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor was 2.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. In June, the export volume of PVC floor was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [36] 3.7 Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the large - sample social inventory of PVC was 680,000 tons (weekly increase of 26,000), with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks, totaling 114,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 360,000 tons (weekly decrease of 10,000), with continuous inventory reduction for five weeks, mainly due to the increase in upstream pre - sales volume [39] 3.8 Profit - The profit of PVC has been significantly repaired. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 181 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 57.6%, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 89 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 14.9% [9] 3.9 Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Hold long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Focus on the range of [5100, 5450] for V2509 [5] - **Hedging Strategy**: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market at high prices for hedging [5]