1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market this month was dominated by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiation and the judicial discussion on reciprocal tariffs. After the ebb of risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of "high - opening, low - closing, and then oscillating". The global economy faces downward pressure, with complex tariff prospects and obvious policy divergence between Europe and the US [2]. - In April, China's economic data was quite divided. Consumption and industrial data were acceptable, but investment growth slowed down. The real estate market did not stop declining, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The new export orders dropped sharply to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of US tariffs. Credit demand was insufficient, and the M1 year - on - year growth was only 1.5%. Although the policy side increased stimulus, the real estate sales and land market remained sluggish, and there was still much room for China's economic recovery [2]. - In the short term, gold was impacted by the ebb of risk - aversion, with a decrease in the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX and a reduction in ETF funds. However, the long - term supporting factors remain unchanged: central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still constitute strategic allocation value. For silver, the supply - demand tight balance continues, but in the short term, its industrial and financial attributes have not yet resonated. The resilience of industrial demand supports the price, and it continues to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Asset Price Deduction of the US Reciprocal Tariff Logic - The capital market was affected by factors such as the repeated tariff negotiations, global capital disturbances, and China's unexpected loose policies. Interest rates declined, the US dollar fluctuated, and the RMB appreciated. The China - US interest rate spread oscillated this month. A - shares soared and then oscillated, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared and then declined [8][9]. - The probability of recession in US data decreased, and US Treasury yields increased. Different countries' bond yields were affected by various factors such as debt expansion, inflation, and policy uncertainty. The core logic is that countries are generally affected by debt expansion and policy uncertainty, but the driving factors are different [11][13]. - Affected by factors such as over - supply and the China - US trade war, China's domestic commodity market generally declined this week, especially the black - chain commodities. Precious metals bottomed out and oscillated, and the short - term trading of non - ferrous metals was weak, but they were generally supported [17]. 3.2 US Inflation Stabilizes, and Central Banks of Many Countries Continue to Cut Interest Rates - In April 2025, the US CPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, slightly lower than market expectations. The PPI year - on - year increase was 2.4%, the slowest in three consecutive months, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.5%, the largest monthly decline in five years [21][24]. - The US employment market showed a mild slowdown but still had resilience. In April, non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. However, consumer confidence was at a low level, and the retail sales growth in April was weak [27][31]. - Inflation rates in different countries showed different trends. For example, France's inflation rate was stable at 0.8% in April, the lowest since 2021; the UK's CPI year - on - year increase slowed down to 2.6% [35]. - The manufacturing and service industries in the US, Europe, and Japan showed different trends. The manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone showed a differentiated trend, and the service industry PMI in the US and the eurozone declined, indicating a weakening of the economic recovery momentum [41][44]. - The balance sheets of the central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe showed a differentiated trend. The Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet was passively reduced, and the European Central Bank maintained a high - level balance sheet [49]. - Central banks of different countries had different interest - rate policies. The US Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in May, while the eurozone, the UK, Canada, etc. cut interest rates, and Brazil raised interest rates [50]. 3.3 China's Data Raises Many Concerns, Focus on Policy Effects - In April, China's industrial added - value growth rate remained high, with equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing as the core driving forces. However, there were obvious regional and industrial differences, and some traditional industries had weak growth [54]. - In April, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate declined slightly, with a slight decline in general infrastructure investment and a decrease in manufacturing investment. Real estate investment continued to decline, with a significant decrease in new construction and completion areas, and a slight narrowing of the decline in sales area [58][61]. - In April, China's consumer market continued a mild recovery trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year - on - year. However, the demand for durable consumer goods was significantly differentiated [63]. - In April, China's credit data was at a low level in recent years. New RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and corporate and household loans were weak. However, government special bonds supported the increase in social financing scale [66][75]. - In April, China's export data showed resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 9.3% in exports (in RMB). The "rush for re - export" effect was an important factor supporting the export performance. Import data showed a complex feature of "quantity - price differentiation" [86][92]. - In April, China's PMI declined. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, and large, medium, and small - sized enterprises were all in the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index also declined slightly [95]. - In May 2025, China's monetary policy was unexpected. The central bank announced 3 major categories and 10 policies, including providing medium - and long - term liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts, lowering policy interest rates, and improving existing and creating new re - loan tools [99]. 3.4 The Impact of Tariff Negotiations and Prospects, Gold Price Bottoms out and Oscillates - Due to the uncertainty of the prospects of reciprocal tariffs, the gold price fluctuated significantly this month. The non - commercial long - position ratio of COMEX gold decreased, and the ETF fund holdings decreased. The US dollar depreciated, and the decline in the US dollar index weakened the suppression of the gold price [112][115][123]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global physical gold ETF had a net inflow of 226 tons, and the total holdings increased to 3,445 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves for 6 months [124][125]. - In 2025, the silver market continued to be in a "tight balance". The supply - demand gap was expected to narrow by 21% compared with 2024. Industrial demand remained resilient, but consumer demand declined [126]. - In the short term, the shock of gold was mainly due to the demand for risk - aversion, and silver was driven by gold but was limited by the lack of resonance between its industrial and financial attributes. In the long term, central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still supported the gold price [128][129].

工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜月报 超级宏观月来临，铜震荡蓄势 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-05-30 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 观点摘要 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 盘面情况 供应和需求 总结和展望 【核心观点】5月铜横盘整理，多空交织，铜或需回调蓄力来帮助市场重拾流动性，建议6月 守正出奇，区间操作，中长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 国际贸易法院裁定：关税非法（5月28日） 裁决核心： IEEPA 未授权总统征收全球性关税，国会授予总统"不受限制的关税权力"违宪；撤销相关行政令，永久禁止执 行，10天内生效。影响范围：叫停"对等关税"及2月对中、墨、加的附加关税，但保留232条款关税。市场反 应：全球股市大涨（纳指期货+1.4%，日经指数+1%）；避险资产暴跌（黄金跌至3245美元/盎司）。 2. 白宫紧急上诉（5月29日） 联邦巡回上诉法院：批准特朗普政府请求，暂缓执行国际贸易法院裁决，恢复关税征收。 白宫立场：发言人库什·德赛称裁决是"司法政变"，强调"非民选法官无权决定国家紧急状态应对"；威胁"动用 ...

聚烯烃月报： 关注新产能投放节奏，反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/5/30 | PE：供需偏弱，反弹偏空 【本月回顾】 本月回顾：本月L2509波动区间为【6936-7357】，盘面先跌后涨，重心下移。5月12日，中美互降 关税10%，市场交易终端制品抢出口预期，5月15日盘面创月内高点7357。随着乐观情绪消退，塑料 制品内需为主，抢出口影响不大且不具备可持续性。基本面看，5月装置检修旺季，PE日均产量为 8.8万吨，月环比-3.5%。1-22周PE、LL、HD、LD产量累计同比分别为+18%、28%、7%、20%。标品供 应压力较高。 【下月展望】 供需偏弱，反弹偏空。供给端，6-7月埃克森、山东新时代等合计205万吨新装置存投产计划。6月 PE装置检修与重启计划分别为234、185万吨，检修力度略大于重启计划，存量装置影响不大。目前 LL进口毛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the steel market fluctuated little in the first half - month and declined continuously in the second half, breaking the previous low. Macroeconomic policies have limited impact on the black - series commodities, and the overall demand intensity is lower than expected. Although steel mills' profits are in a good state, the balance of steel supply and demand is fragile. There is a possibility of a seasonal decline in demand, and the raw material cost may decrease. The downward trend of the steel industry has not ended, but if there are corresponding production - limiting measures for coking coal, it may help form a phased bottom. Also, the steel basis is likely to weaken in June, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of construction at construction sites was slow, steel exports faced tariff barriers, and the decline of coking coal drove down the price of steel. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the trade war, the overall commodity market declined significantly. Currently, the steel market shows characteristics of low - level range fluctuations [8]. 3.2 Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed a rising trend, and the M1 - M2 gap slightly narrowed in April. In April, RMB loans decreased significantly to less than 10 billion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 declined [11]. 3.3 Price Index - In April, CPI was - 0.1 with a flat month - on - month change, and PPI was - 2.7, a further decline of 0.2 compared to March. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the boom - bust line [14]. 3.4 Steel Production - In April, the crude steel output was 86.01 million tons, similar to the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative output was 345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The pig iron output was 289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.81 million tons, and the cumulative output since this year decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative pig iron output increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and although the current pig iron output has declined compared to the previous period, it is still at an absolute high level [17]. 3.5 Blast Furnace Production No specific content provided. 3.6 Building Material Production - The production of rebar has been stable recently, maintaining at around 2.3 million tons. The cumulative rebar output decreased by 5% year - on - year, and the decline has gradually narrowed [22]. 3.7 Rebar Production Profit - The long - process rebar profit in East and Central China is around 160 yuan/ton, and in North China it is around 200 yuan/ton. The long - process spot immediate profit has been good this year, ensuring the production enthusiasm of steel mills [25]. 3.8 Short - Process Production - The short - process production is generally low. Currently, the profit during off - peak electricity hours is basically at the break - even point, and there are overall losses during peak electricity hours [28]. 3.9 Electric Furnace Profit No specific content provided. 3.10 Coil Production - The hot - rolled coil output declined after April and is still lower than the same period last year. The output of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils is the highest in the same period. The cumulative output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly year - on - year, while the output of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates increased slightly [33]. 3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China is around 200 yuan/ton, in North China it is around 100 yuan/ton, and in Central China it is around the break - even point. The overall profit of coils is slightly lower than that of rebar [36]. 3.12 Steel Demand - With the decline in price and the arrival of the off - season, the trading volume of construction steel has further decreased to around 100,000 tons, and the spot sentiment has continued to decline [39]. 3.13 Building Material Consumption - In May, the consumption of building materials generally declined, lower than the same period last year. The cumulative apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5% year - on - year, and that of wire rods decreased by 10% year - on - year. As the demand enters the off - season, attention should be paid to the decline rate [42]. 3.14 Real Estate Data - In April, the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 22% compared to March, and the decline deepened. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 24.1%. From January to April, the land purchase cost decreased by 5.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.7%, both showing a continuous weakening trend. In the future, it is difficult for the real estate construction demand to improve significantly [44]. 3.15 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.9% [47]. 3.16 Cement and Concrete - In May, the outbound shipment volume of cement and concrete was relatively balanced but lower than the same period last year [50]. 3.17 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to April, fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to the period from January to March. Infrastructure investment increased by 10.85%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.65%. Manufacturing investment showed a slight weakening trend [53]. 3.18 Local Government Bonds - From January to April, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 1.49 trillion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1.19 trillion yuan of special bonds. The issuance speed decreased in April. More than 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan refinancing special bond resources have been implemented this year, and the peak issuance period has passed. Subsequently, the issuance of local government bonds will mainly be new bonds [56]. 3.19 Coil Consumption - The demand for coils remains strong, at a relatively high level in the same period. The cumulative apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 1% year - on - year, that of cold - rolled coils increased by 0.9%, and that of medium - thick plates increased by 2.7% [58]. 3.20 Automobiles and Home Appliances - From January to April, automobile sales were 10.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%, including 2.16 million exports, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January to April, the output of air conditioners increased by 7.2% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 0.7%, and washing machines increased by 10.9%. Home appliance exports still maintained positive growth [62]. 3.21 Steel Exports - Steel exports remained at a high level. From January to April, the export volume was 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. There was a certain "rush - to - export" factor in the early stage, and the export volume may decline later. Since this year, the export of steel billets has increased significantly, with a cumulative export of 3.34 million tons from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons [65]. 3.22 Steel Inventory - Currently, steel inventory is still in the destocking stage, and the destocking is usually basically completed by the end of June [67]. 3.23 Rebar Inventory - Rebar inventory is seasonally destocking. Although the absolute level is low, the inventory - to - consumption ratio is basically normal. According to simple seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline [70]. 3.24 Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively fast, and it has now dropped to a low level in the same period. According to seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline, but due to the possible weakening of exports, the demand may face a more - than - seasonal decline [73]. 3.25 Inventory of Other Varieties - The inventory of wire rods is similar to that of rebar, with a relatively low absolute level. The destocking of medium - thick plate inventory is going smoothly, while the cold - rolled coil inventory shows counter - seasonal accumulation [78]. 3.26 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained high in May with little change. Futures prices fell faster, while spot prices were somewhat resistant due to low inventory. According to past rules, it is highly likely that the basis will decline after June. Currently, the basis is at a relatively high level in the same period, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of basis weakening caused by demand decline [82]. 3.27 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The hot - rolled coil basis strengthened in May. The good destocking of spot inventory, strong domestic demand, and high export volume supported the relatively strong operation of the spot market. Later, attention should be paid to the possible decline in exports, which may put downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil basis [86]. 3.28 Rebar Monthly Spread - The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar was low and fluctuated little [91]. 3.29 Hot - Rolled Coil Monthly Spread - The hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened in May. After approaching the flat - water level, there was a lack of further upward momentum [95]. 3.30 Coil - Rebar Spread No specific content provided. 3.31 Spot Regional Spread No specific content provided. 3.32 Spot Variety Spread No specific content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the main factors influencing the crude oil market are OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global crude oil demand. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and with the global energy transition, there is a growing supply surplus, leading to limited upward momentum for oil prices and potential for a lower price center. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Iran nuclear talks, and US policies towards Venezuela increase price volatility but do not change the overall supply surplus situation. In June - July, which is the consumption peak season, oil prices may find some support and are expected to trade in a range with a gradually declining center. Recommended strategies include shorting on rallies, selling call options, or using bull spread options. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [6][108]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the crude oil market is mainly affected by OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global demand. OPEC+ is expanding production, and combined with the global energy transition, there is a supply surplus. Geopolitical factors increase price volatility but do not change the supply - surplus trend. In June - July, oil prices may be supported by peak - season consumption and are expected to trade in a range with a declining center [6][108]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: On May 7, the People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion in long - term liquidity. As of May, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. By July, the probability of unchanged rates is 76.6%, with a 22.9% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut and a 0.5% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the expected growth rate for 2026 is 3% [6][27]. - **Supply and Demand, and Inventory**: - **Supply**: OPEC+ did not adjust production policies at the Wednesday meeting but proposed a mechanism for setting 2027 production benchmarks. There is a possibility of accelerated production increases in July. In April 2025, OPEC's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day. The US crude oil production remained stable at 13.4 million barrels per day as of the week ending May 23 [7][43][47]. - **Demand**: The IEA's May report maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 740,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. In May 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA predicted global crude oil demand at 10.371 million, 10.5 million, and 10.39 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 970,000, 130,000, and 740,000 barrels per day [7][52]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending May 23, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels to 440.36 million barrels, strategic reserves increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.31 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 223.08 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories decreased by 720,000 barrels to 103.41 million barrels. Chinese port inventories increased by 319,000 tons to 28.216 million tons, and Shandong refinery inventories increased by 23,000 tons to 2.499 million tons [7][71][75]. 2. Core Drivers - **OPEC+ Production Policies since 2017**: In 2017, OPEC+ implemented production cuts. Since October 2022, there have been multiple rounds of production cuts and extensions, with actual production decreasing by about 3 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait. The overall production cut implementation rate is 51.02% [10][12][14]. - **2025 OPEC+ Production Increase Path**: In 2025, OPEC+ has a production increase plan through quota increases and compensatory production cuts. It is expected that by the end of the year, the net increase in OPEC+ production will be about 1 million barrels per day [15][16][21]. 3. Price Spreads and Positions - **Cross - market Spreads**: The WTI monthly spread increased slightly. As of May 29, the M1 - M2 spread was $0.74 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $2.21 per barrel. The US refined product crack spreads declined, while the domestic refined product crack spreads rebounded [90][94][95]. - **Fund Positions**: No specific information on changes in WTI and Brent fund positions was provided. The SC warehouse receipt volume is low, and the total SC positions increased [102][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the cost support is expected to weaken, and the industrial fundamentals have improved, but due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series, the market bearish sentiment remains. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The main contract reference range is [5250, 5800] [3]. - For silicon iron, under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak. The main contract reference range is [5150, 5500] [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly, with factories in both northern and southern regions undergoing maintenance. Some factories have resumed production slightly after maintenance. The daily output in Inner Mongolia is 13,400 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. Yunnan factories also have plans to resume production in June. The estimated total national silicon manganese production in May is about 740,000 tons [3]. - Demand: In May, hot metal production declined month - on - month and may have peaked, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period, providing short - term rigid support for silicon manganese demand. In terms of steel procurement, the mainstream steel mills' procurement price of silicon manganese alloy in May was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to April. Most steel mills' tender prices decreased, with strong price - pressing sentiment. Recent news of crude steel production restrictions has disturbed the market [3]. Manganese Ore Overview - The news of South Africa's export restrictions briefly disturbed the market, but its impact has gradually dissipated. The manganese ore market remains weak, with low trading volume, and factories mainly replenish stocks on demand. In May, shipping and arrival volumes increased significantly, while the port clearance volume declined from a high level. South32 has resumed shipping, but the overall shipping volume is low. It is expected that port inventories will slowly recover at a low level [3]. Cost and Profit - The entire industry's loss has intensified, and the expectation of production cuts remains. However, the room for further production cuts in the southern region is limited, and attention should be paid to the operating conditions in low - cost regions. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Electricity prices in both northern and southern regions have decreased to varying degrees, and there is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia in June [3]. Market Outlook - Overall, the cost support for silicon manganese is expected to weaken. Although the industrial fundamentals have improved, the market bearish sentiment remains due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The upward drive depends on "deep production cuts" in the industry or external environmental disturbances [3]. Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly. Since mid - April, more factories in production areas have undergone maintenance, and the operating rates in multiple production areas have dropped to the lowest level in the same period. The estimated total national production in May is 410,000 - 420,000 tons [44]. - Demand: In the short term, steel mills' profits still support the high - level hot metal production, and the demand for silicon iron remains resilient. The progress of steel procurement in May was slow, with most steel mills' tender prices decreasing to varying degrees, and strong price - pressing sentiment. A leading steel mill's procurement price of silicon iron alloy in May was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 2,130 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to April. Non - steel demand: The downstream magnesium metal market remains weak, with low trading volume, and cannot strongly support silicon iron. In terms of exports, the export volume of silicon iron increased month - on - month in April, but the cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian orders, the export volume in May is expected to increase slightly month - on - month but still be lower than the level of the same period last year [44]. Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market remains weakly stable. The price of lump coal at the raw material end continues to be weak, and cannot strongly support the semi - coke price. The maintenance season in May is coming to an end, and factories may gradually resume production. The price of small materials in Shaanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton this month. There is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia, and attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in each production area [44]. Market Outlook - Under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak [45].

PVC月报： 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/5/30 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底 【下月展望】 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底。虽然近期社库去化速度尚可，基本面边际改善，绝对价格低估值，继续下探空间 有限。但在高开工弱内需的背景下，基本面依旧压力重重：1、青岛海湾、嘉化能源、万华福建合计90万吨新 装置计划在上半年投产。从检修计划看，6月仅万华、齐鲁等合计241万装置存检修计划，检修力度不足，供给 端依旧面临存量与增量的双重压力。2、内需地产价格尚未止跌，商品房高频成交数据同比低位，且雨季终端 施工不利，管材、型材需求偏弱。6月24日BIS认证临近，根据前两轮经验，认证到期当月出口偏承压。3、电 力是氯碱企业最大成本，由于煤炭端持续下跌，叠加联产产品烧碱价格整体坚挺，企业动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Price**: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - **Sow Spot Price**: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - **Piglet Spot Price**: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - **Short - term Supply**: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - **Medium - term Supply**: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - **Long - term Supply**: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - **Demand**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - **Profit**: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it presents a "neutral" view on the cotton market, considering various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [3]. 2. Core View The fundamental pattern of the cotton market has limited improvement. The cotton price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the near term. The market is influenced by factors like tariff policies, supply and demand changes, and macro - economic trends. The US cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents due to a loose supply pattern, while the domestic cotton price may move in tandem with the external market. The actual increase in trade demand may be limited despite some warming expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro & Industry - The profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises in April increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. However, the cumulative profit of the textile and clothing industry in April decreased by 15.4% year - on - year [3]. - The US federal court's ruling on the Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and the repeated changes in tariff measures make the industry cautious [3]. 3.2 Supply - **International**: As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, the budding rate was 3%. The soil moisture in the US improved, which is negative for US cotton. The estimated cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well. The planting area in southern Xinjiang may increase, and the new - season output is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The cost of planting is expected to remain stable or decline slightly. The imported cotton resources have decreased for four consecutive times [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic**: The industrial and commercial inventory in China is in the seasonal de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down recently. The replenishment progress of cotton yarn, grey cloth, and blended products has also slowed down [3]. - **International**: In March 2025, the inventory of US wholesalers' clothing and fabrics reached the lowest level in 37 months, and the retailers' inventory has declined. There was no obvious replenishment in Q1, and the latest data will show the US replenishment intention after the tariff war [3]. 3.4 Demand - **Domestic**: The domestic textile industry is in the off - season. The number of orders from spinning mills rebounded limitedly and then declined again. The profit of spinning mills remains at around - 1000 yuan, and the industry's profit in April continued to decline [3]. - **International**: The demand for US cotton has not significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. The "rush - to - export" effect may not be further amplified [3]. 3.5 Cotton Supply - Related - **Inventory Changes**: The total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China decreased by 162,900 tons to 4.3275 million tons this week. The port inventory decreased by 4700 tons to 485,600 tons. The cotton import in April was about 168,662 tons, reaching a near - historical low [13]. - **Product Inventory**: The inventory days of pure cotton yarn, terminal grey cloth, and factory - made polyester - cotton yarn increased this week. The inventory of textile mills' grey cloth decreased in April. The inventory of the clothing and textile industry of Chinese industrial enterprises in March increased by 2 billion yuan to 180.94 billion yuan [17]. 3.6 Cotton Market Performance - **Cotton Futures and Spot**: The cotton price is in a weak - running state with insufficient positive drivers. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price mostly fluctuates within a range [5][7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot**: The cotton yarn price was weak this week, showing slightly better resistance than cotton [8]. 3.7 Market Indicators - **US Cotton Planting**: As of May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, and the budding rate was 3% [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 29, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou were 11,157, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 11,537, equivalent to 461,480 tons of cotton [19]. - **Operating Rate**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly to 74.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate remained stable at 42.3%. The upward momentum of the operating rate slowed down [21]. - **Profit and Orders**: The immediate profit of spinning mills remained at around - 1000 yuan/ton. The order days of textile enterprises decreased to 11.38 days [23]. 3.8 Market Demand - Side - **Domestic Sales**: In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 108.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, the total export of textiles and clothing in China was 24.1863 billion US dollars. Textile exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year in the first four months, while clothing exports decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in the first four months [29]. 3.9 Industry Overview - The cotton - spinning industry has higher volatility, with lower order peaks and higher inventory production links. The demand - side weakness and supply - side surplus have not been fully alleviated [31]. 3.10 Competitor Situation - The cotton - polyester and cotton - viscose price differences have reached near - four - year lows, and the pressure on cotton consumption has weakened temporarily. However, due to factors such as new capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry, the pressure on cotton from competitors is expected to remain strong [34]. 3.11 CFTC Position Data The non - commercial positions and the net short positions of funds have made a small correction, but the report does not provide detailed data [35]. 3.12 Macroeconomic Impact The profit differentiation of domestic enterprises continues to intensify, and the consumer confidence indices in Europe and the US have declined, which affects the cotton market [37].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税暂停令发出仅 20 个小时即被搁置。特朗普对等关税被裁定越权，让事情变 | | | 震荡冲高 | 得更加复杂不确定，目前关税和地缘不确定性仍然较多。央行或继续购金。长 | | | | 期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 逻辑不变，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 轻仓过节 | 特朗普关税法案暂停令搁置，国内政策窗口期，端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升， 铜承压回落，建议轻仓或者空仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000， | | | 78500】 | | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，短期锌波动放缓，建议暂时观望，长 | | | | 期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机 ...