| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。受阿根廷暴雨及美政府对欧盟贸易风波影响，豆粕近日 | | | | 反弹，但美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空，看多暂以技术性反弹 | | | | 对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。主力【2920，2970】 | | 菜粕 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and rise. The main drivers for the long - term bull market are the change in international order and the strategic allocation value is high. The price range is [766 - 787] [1]. - Silver is likely to have range - bound oscillations. The global economic demand may decline in 2025, and it is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8200 - 8390] [1]. - Copper is predicted to rebound. In the short - term, it should pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. In the long - term, it remains optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500] [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short - term, the rebound space may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it has an oversupply situation. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000] [1]. - Lead is under pressure. The supply is expected to tighten slightly, but the downstream procurement is cautious, so the price rebound is under pressure. The price range is [16300 - 17000] [1]. - Tin is predicted to rebound. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The price range is [263000 - 269000] [1]. - Aluminum is facing pressure in its rebound. The alumina price is falling, and the downstream demand is differentiating. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weakening. The price range is [120000 - 125000] [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook. The supply and demand surplus concern remains. The price range is [7500 - 7780] [1]. - Lithium carbonate is bearish. The supply surplus situation has not been reversed. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - The progress of the US - EU negotiation is repeated, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue, providing support for gold [2]. Basic Logic - The US extended the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9, boosting market confidence. Japan's inflation has rebounded, and the UK's retail sales have increased significantly. The cease - fire in the Middle East is uncertain. The long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies will support gold [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and control the position for long - term investment. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the short - term [8200, 8390] [4]. Copper Market Review - Overnight, copper opened lower and then rose, with an oscillatory recovery [6]. Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is - 44.25 dollars/ton. The uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy is reducing copper inventories outside the US. The demand for green copper in power, automotive, and home appliance sectors is strong, offsetting the weak demand in traditional sectors [6]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, copper is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. Long positions should be held cautiously. In the long - term, it is optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc Market Review - Zinc rose by more than 2% overnight [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose. Recently, the unexpected extended maintenance of a smelter in South China and the maintenance of a mine in the Southwest have worried the market about supply disruptions. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc rebounds due to mine and smelter maintenance, but the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, short positions can be taken on rebounds. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and the alumina price is falling [10]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand is differentiating. The supply of bauxite is high, and the alumina supply surplus situation continues [11]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The price range for the main contract is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is operating in a low - level range [11]. Nickel Market Review - The nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [12]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - environment has eased. The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the price cut in Indonesia have weakened the cost support. The domestic refined nickel production is increasing, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still exists [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The price range for the main nickel contract is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2507 opened lower and fell, breaking through the 60,000 mark [14]. Industrial Logic - The supply surplus situation continues. The upstream smelter has high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [15]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold short positions. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [15].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位震荡 | 铁水产量环比虽有下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高。卷板等钢材需求绝对水平 | | | | 虽然不错，但建筑钢材马上进入淡季，在钢厂利润持续较好背景下，后期 | | | | 供需面临转向宽松的格局。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力，成本存在持 | | | | 续下降的可能。短期在 3000 附近或存在一定支撑，但中期延续偏弱趋势。 | | | | 【2980，3120】 | | 热卷 | 低位震荡 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡，库存去化良好。出口仍在高位，暂时未受到明显 | | | | 影响。但黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现，随着铁水产量见顶， | | | | 成本端面临进一步的宽松压力。短期下行后或进入震荡整理，但中期趋势 | | | | 仍然偏弱。【3110，3150】 | | | 空单持有 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发货降到货增，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性，山东 粗钢调控政策传言再起，短期盘面承压。后期来看，终端需求边际转弱， | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。豆粕隔夜窄幅整理，短期空头格局依然占据主导，整体 | | | | 基本面偏空，看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。主力【2920， | | | | 2970】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大；夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制，油价偏弱； | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，本周装置计划重启增多，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强，农膜季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，期现齐跌，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌，开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产，出口尚存不确定性，基本 | | | | 面预期 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 特朗普威胁再度加征关税，地缘俄乌谈判失败，中东战火复杂。中国购金激增， 黄金价格短期延续走高。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变，长期看黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【766-797】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感， 受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金大涨刺激白银重心继续上移，价格没有摆脱 | | | | 此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | | 上方 | 特朗普关税冲击再起，美铜受进口关税增加担忧拉涨，带动沪铜反弹，短期铜关注 7 万 9 关口压力位，多单谨慎持有。随着端午三天假期临近，警惕市场恐慌情 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 绪下，风险资产泥沙俱下，铜再次高位回落，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77500，79500】 | | 锌 | 偏空 | 隔夜锌小幅反弹后承压回落，需求淡季建议前期空单继续持有，长期看，锌供 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢产量环比小幅上升，而表观需求进入季节性回落阶段。虽然目前库 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡偏弱 存去化速度尚佳，由于高炉螺纹利润较好，钢厂生产积极性较高，后期螺 | | | 纹钢供需或向宽松方向发展。短期或呈偏弱震荡格局。【3015，3060】 | | | 热卷产量及表需均出现环比回落，而需求降幅更大，库存继续去化，绝对 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 水平并不高。出口仍在高位，暂时并未受到明显影响。供需层面相对平衡， | | | 但黑色产业链整体氛围偏弱，短期或偏弱震荡。【3150，3195】 | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 供给端发货增到货降，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构略偏强。后 逢高布空 | | | 期来看，终端需求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面 恐承压。【690,730】 | | | 本周铁水产量继续小幅下降，铁水见顶迹象比较明显。钢厂焦炭采购较为 | | 焦炭 | 震荡偏弱 谨慎，现货仍有继续提降的预期。焦化利润尚可，无减产动力 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。豆粕前日延续反弹，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，整 | | | | 体基本面偏空，看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。主力 | | | | 【2890，2960】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 截止本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

螺纹钢：螺纹钢产量环比小幅上升，而表观需求进入季节性回落阶段。虽然目前库存去化速 度尚佳，由于高炉螺纹利润较好，钢厂生产积极性较高，后期螺纹钢供需或向宽松方向发展； 热卷产量及表需均出现环比回落，而需求降幅更大，库存继续去化，绝对水平并不高。出口 仍在高位，暂时并未受到明显影响。 【盘面操作建议】 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡偏弱 | 螺纹钢产量环比小幅上升，而表观需求进入季节性回落阶段。虽然目前库 | | | | 存去化速度尚佳，由于高炉螺纹利润较好，钢厂生产积极性较高，后期螺 | | | | 纹钢供需或向宽松方向发展。短期或呈偏弱震荡格局。【3030，3080】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 热卷产量及表需均出现环比回落，而需求降幅更大，库存继续去化，绝对 | | | | 水平并不高。出口仍在高位，暂时并未受到明显影响。供需层面相对平衡， | | | | 但黑色产业链整体氛围偏弱，短期或偏弱震荡。【3180，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 ...