Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish (Trend)**: Palm Oil [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton, Red Dates, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: In a situation where fundamental factors are weak and Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support, it is advisable to view it as a large - range market. After the hype of events cools down, the price has recently dropped slightly. With the support of Sino - US trade tariffs, it is mainly recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to position and risk control when chasing long positions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a reduction in the new - year yield of Canadian rapeseed. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with the improvement of Sino - Australian trade, have cooled down the market hype. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips and be cautious when chasing long positions [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply problem before the new cotton is listed. The fast de - stocking speed and the lack of import quotas provide support for the bottom. The downstream will enter the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market, and orders have started to improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and previous low - position long positions can consider phased profit - taking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is initially estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 50 - 580,000 tons, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the market hype period around the opening price is relatively long, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated recently. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the previous pressure of second - fattening slaughter and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot end. The "weak reality, strong expectation" situation is still obvious. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and attention can be paid to establishing long positions in the far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3096.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 701,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 549,700 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,100 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: The continuous rise in US soybean prices has led to a decline in the Brazilian soybean premium. The procurement of imported soybeans in September in China has been fully completed, and more than half of the procurement for October has also been completed. The downstream feed enterprises are mainly cautious and wait - and - see [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.21% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,800 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons [5]. - **Analysis**: From August to October, the import of rapeseed is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% Canadian rapeseed meal import tariff and other factors support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts pressure on the price [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the previous day; the national average price was 9418 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 599,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,600 tons [8]. - **Analysis**: The export data in the first 15 days of this month is good, which boosts the market to reach a new high. The trend is still mainly to go long on dips [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 0.25% to 14,120 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.01% to 15,222 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The excellent and good rate of US cotton decreased by 2% to 53% week - on - week, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area has recovered to 82%. The newly sown cotton area in India is 3.13 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has mostly entered the boll - opening stage, and the output is expected to increase to over 7.4 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has decreased by 150,600 tons to 1.8561 million tons [11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 increased by 0.74% to 11,545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. It is estimated that the new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years [14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98 tons [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.18% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply Situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [17]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the consumption off - season, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - For silicon manganese, the fundamentals are becoming looser, but short - term demand resilience remains due to a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory shows a downward trend but remains at a high level. With the market sentiment cooling but still lingering, short - selling or waiting and seeing is advisable, with the main contract reference range at [5954, 6274] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the fundamentals are also becoming looser. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but is still high, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended, with the main contract reference range at [5754, 6112] [52][53] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply - The national silicon manganese production has been rising for thirteen consecutive weeks. As of August 15, the total national production was 207,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,235 tons, and the operating rate was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. Northern production areas have stable operations, while southern areas like Guangxi and Guizhou have minor restarts, and Yunnan's operating rate has reached 88.21% [4][12] Demand - As of August 15, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the weekly output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 million tons. The 8 - month silicon manganese tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from July, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, a 1,500 - ton increase from July [4][17][20] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 74,797, a decrease of 1,248 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 382,200 tons, with a slower decline rate [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports were relatively stable this week. The shipment volume continued to decline, while the arrival and port clearance volumes increased significantly compared to the previous period. Coke's sixth price increase has been implemented, but the chemical coke price in the production area has not followed up this week. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,853 and 6,430 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 53 and - 530 yuan/ton respectively [4][26] Silicon Iron Supply - As of August 15, the weekly production of silicon iron was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons, and the operating rate was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had relatively stable operations, and Shaanxi had a minor restart [52][59] Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons. In August, a new round of demand was being released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The 8 - month silicon iron tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous month. The domestic magnesium market was stable and slightly stronger this week [52][63][65] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 108,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from last Friday [52] Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently, and the semi - coke price in some areas has increased slightly. The electricity price in Gansu has dropped to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and in Qinghai, it has increased to 0.375 yuan/kWh. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 49 and 148 yuan/ton respectively [52][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic sentiment is warming, market risk appetite is rising, and there is potential for macro - micro resonance. Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards with a higher center of gravity. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, copper is bullish due to its status as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, tight copper concentrate supply, and the booming green copper demand. The focus range for SHFE copper is [78,000, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,650, 9,950] US dollars/ton [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that with warming macro sentiment and rising market risk appetite, there may be macro - micro resonance, and copper prices will rise with a higher center of gravity. It is advisable to try long positions on dips. The strategy outlook is that although US PPI exceeds expectations and weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. The short - term A - share slow - bull market and commodity anti - involution restlessness in China have increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine disruptions coexist with high domestic refined copper production, and the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is fermenting, with tight domestic social inventories supporting copper prices. In the long - term, copper is promising. The operation strategy is to try long positions on dips [6]. 2. Macroeconomic - **Policy Boosting Consumption**: Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities' Loans". The central bank and other four departments explained these two interest - subsidy policies, which will form a "combination punch" with other policies. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [8]. - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: The Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks issued a joint statement, suspending 24% tariffs for another 90 days. However, the US Congress passed the "2025 Sanctions Against Russia Act", and there are concerns about Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **US Economic Data**: US July PPI data exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity in September. There are differences within the Fed on the rate - cut rhythm. The US dollar index rebounded, and commodities were slightly pressured [10][12]. - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: From January to July, China's industrial added value, manufacturing investment, and social consumption showed different trends. In July, social financing performed well, but credit performance was average [15]. - **US Copper Industry Dilemma**: The US has a high dependence on copper imports. Trump plans to reduce the import dependence from 45% to 30% by 2035. The short - term impact of US copper tariff policies on China's copper product exports is limited [19]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price Performance**: SHFE copper is stronger than overseas copper. The COMEX - LME copper price spread has returned to the normal historical range. LME copper has a negative basis, and domestic electrolytic copper spot has a positive basis [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: There have been disruptions in copper concentrate supply overseas, but the domestic supply situation has improved marginally. The copper concentrate TC has increased [40]. - **Crude Copper and Scrap Copper Market**: The supply of crude copper and scrap copper is tight, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has converged, with a weak scrap copper substitution effect [45]. - **Refined Copper Supply and Demand**: The supply of smelters has high elasticity, and the refined copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year. The production of electrolytic copper may decline in the future due to increased smelter maintenance [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises' operation rate is weak. However, terminal power and new - energy vehicle demand show resilience [55][60]. - **Inventory Situation**: Overseas copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic copper social inventory is tight, at a historically low level [70]. - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative net long positions have declined, and the net capital of SHFE copper positions has flowed out [79]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks and US CPI data initially boosted market confidence, but the US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity and pressuring copper prices. China's July social financing was good, but credit was average. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [81]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: Copper concentrate supply has improved marginally, but refined copper production may decline in the future. Currently in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed, and domestic inventory is tight, with power and automotive demand performing well, and the annual copper supply - demand in a tight balance [81]. - **Overall Strategy**: Although the US PPI weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and enterprises should wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is bullish [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract maintains high - level operation under the expectation of supply contraction, and is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were 50 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 111 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with last month. There are consumption subsidies and loan interest subsidies. In the US, the CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the US - Russia leaders will meet to discuss the cease - fire in Ukraine [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate output decreased slightly week - on - week but remained above 20,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of contract - processing enterprises increased, new production lines continued to ramp up, and recycling enterprises had production plans [3] Demand Side - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 262,000 units, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million units, a 28% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicle manufacturers was 229,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month decrease, with a penetration rate of 56.8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.862 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [3] Cost and Profit - This week, the ore prices increased week - on - week. The African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [4] Total Inventory - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with upstream smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, down 1,306 tons [4] Market Review - As of August 15, LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 13% from last week. The spot battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,000 yuan/ton, up 17% from last week, with the basis discount widening. The main - contract position was 400,000. The main contract fluctuated greatly this week, supported by supply - tight expectations [7] Production of Related Products - Lithium carbonate production on August 15 was 20,093 tons, down 265 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 46.97%, down 0.34% [9] - Lithium hydroxide production on August 15 was 4,710 tons, down 395 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 32.42%, down 2.72% [11] - Lithium iron phosphate production on August 15 was 70,257 tons, up 573 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 61.92%, up 0.62% [14] Inventory of Related Products - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate industry inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with warehouse - receipt inventory at 23,485 tons, up 4,656 tons [32] - As of August 15, the total lithium iron phosphate industry inventory was 43,765 tons, up 1,500 tons from last week [35] Cost - end - As of August 15, the African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [47] Profit of Related Products - As of August 15, the lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [49] - As of August 15, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 66,160 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan, and the industry profit was 3,635 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [51] - As of August 15, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,986 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan, with a loss of 907 yuan/ton, a reduction of 86 yuan from last week [53]

Report Title - The weekly report on steel products of Zhonghui Futures: The "anti - involution" has cooled down, and focus on the industrial logic in the medium term [1] Report Date - August 15, 2025 [2] 1. Market Overview Market Performance - This week, the black - related products first rose and then fell. Coking coal quickly declined after reaching the previous high, driving the black - related sector down. The exchange set trading limits for the coking coal 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fees, clearly aiming to cool down the market [3] Steel Supply and Demand Supply - Steel mills still have good profits and high production enthusiasm. The hot metal output continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. However, there may be production restrictions due to the military parade later. Tangshan's independent rolling mills may stop production due to environmental protection starting from August 20, and blast furnaces may also face production restrictions. There is an expectation of output contraction in the later period [3] Demand - The off - season characteristics on the demand side are obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased further compared with the previous week, with a relatively large decline in the demand for construction steel [3] Inventory - The overall inventory increased, especially the inventory of construction steel [3] 2. Strategy Suggestion - From the recent official statements and regulatory measures, there is a trend to cool down the raw material price increase in the "anti - involution" atmosphere. The current focus in the black - related sector is on coking coal. Its supply - demand contradiction is not as intense as its price performance. Coking coal production is slowly recovering, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is increasing, with marginal improvement on the supply side. The hot metal output on the demand side is relatively stable. After steel mills and coking enterprises replenished their inventories earlier, their recent procurement pace has slowed down, and the coking coal inventory in mines has changed from decreasing to increasing. The driving force for price increase in the later period may weaken. In the short term, the military parade production - restriction policy may still cause disturbances and support the price to maintain range - bound operation. However, after September, the "anti - involution" and macro logic may cool down, and there is a risk of correction after the market switches to the industrial logic [3] 3. Steel Monthly Data (July 31, 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 7080 | - 1.4 | 50583 | - 1.3 | | Crude Steel | 7966 | - 4 | 59447 | - 3.1 | | Steel Products | 12295 | 6.4 | 86047 | 5.1 | | Steel Imports | 45 | - 18.3 | 348 | - 15.7 | | Steel Exports | 984 | 10.9 | 6798 | 11.4 | [5] 4. Five - major Steel Products Weekly Data (August 15, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (10,000 tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (10,000 tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 220.45 | - 0.73 | - 4% | 189.94 | - 20.85 | - 5% | 587.19 | 30.51 | - 14.97% | | Wire Rod | 82.87 | 0.71 | - 9% | 77 | - 1.05 | - 9% | 113.77 | 5.93 | - 22% | | Hot - rolled Coil | 315.59 | 0.7 | 0% | 314.75 | 8.54 | 1% | 357.47 | 0.84 | - 21% | | Cold - rolled Coil | 86.19 | 0.14 | 1.37% | 84.34 | - 2 | 1.64% | 172.66 | 1.85 | - 7.45% | | Medium and Thick Plate | 166.53 | 1.6 | 2.41% | 165.05 | 0.64 | 3.29% | 184.88 | 1.48 | - 18.53% | | Total | 871.63 | 2.42 | - 1.49% | 831 | - 15 | - 1.2% | 1416 | 40.61 | - 16.71% | [6] 5. Steel Production Steel Production Profit (August 14, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace (Change) | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity (Change) | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity (Change) | Hot - rolled Coil - Blast Furnace (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 219 (-40) | 15 (-1) | - 106 (-1) | 262 (-11) | | North China | 177 (-33) | 51 (7) | - 63 (7) | 200 (-13) | | Central China | 175 (0) | 43 (-21) | - 87 (-20) | 235 (-10) | [21] 6. Steel Demand Real Estate High - frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 4%. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 8.4% [28] Cement and Concrete Demand - The cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28%. - The concrete delivery volume is relatively balanced, with an absolute level comparable to that of the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14% [31] Steel Exports - The current export volume is still at a high level. The domestic - foreign price difference of hot - rolled coils has rebounded recently [37] 7. Steel Inventory and Price Spread Rebar - The rebar basis has remained stable. The basis for the 10 - contract is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the basis for the 01 - contract is at a neutral level. - The rebar monthly spread has continued to weaken this week, and the back structure has continued to develop. There were rumors in the market this week that there will be 400,000 tons of rebar warehouse receipts later. Although the final delivery volume is unlikely to be that large, a large number of warehouse receipts will continuously suppress the 10 - contract [51][60] Hot - rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil basis has remained stable this week. - The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened slightly recently, with little change [54][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese [1] - **Short-term Bullish Participation**: Iron Ore [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: High iron - water production due to good profits, weak demand, supply - side contraction expectations from un - implemented parade - related production restrictions, and raw material disturbances lead to expected mid - term range fluctuations [1][4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production and apparent consumption decline, inventory slightly increases, export profit drops, and production restrictions during the parade support the market [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories, and restocking by steel mills make the ore price firm [1][8]. - **Coke**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction from parade - related production restrictions, mid - term strength supported by news, but short - term possible correction due to high position and trading restrictions [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment may be affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Silicomanganese**: No prominent supply - demand contradiction, increased enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the alloy price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Weaker fundamentals, increased factory inventory, and high delivery inventory. The price may face correction pressure in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Market Characteristics**: Obvious off - season features, range fluctuations [3]. - **Rebar**: High - level iron - water production, weak demand, mid - term range fluctuations, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Stable fundamentals, reduced export profit, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show different degrees of decline, and there are corresponding changes in basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' restocking makes the ore price firm [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories [1][8]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of iron ore decline, and there are changes in spreads, basis, and other indicators [6]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction, relatively balanced supply - demand, and stable production and inventory [1][11]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices have mixed changes, and there are corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices remain stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators [13]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: No fundamental drivers, follow market sentiment [16]. - **Silicomanganese**: Improved enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Increased factory inventory, high delivery inventory, short - term correction pressure, and medium - term price under pressure [1][18]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are relatively stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other data [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives short - term investment outlooks for individual commodities: - **Short - term bullish**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Cotton, red dates, live pigs [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In a large - range market due to the intersection of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. After the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report, the final US soybean production and ending stocks decreased month - on - month. However, considering the price of Argentine soybean meal and the limited reduction in US soybean production, be cautious when chasing long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supported by factors such as the expected decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. But the high inventory and policy implementation may affect the market sentiment [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for market consumption expectations. Although there was profit - taking recently, the overall trend is still bullish on dips [1]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is on the market. The rapid de - stocking and the lack of import quotas support the price. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the demand is expected to improve, but the remaining upside space may be limited [1]. - **Red Dates**: There is still a large divergence in the market regarding the reduction in production. The expected total production of Xinjiang southern grey dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons. The short - term speculation around the purchase price before November is beneficial for the bullish trend [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the far - month contracts. The situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" is obvious, and it is recommended to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1]. Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3118.29 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of some contracts increased [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 893.8 million tons, up 70.10 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.56 million tons, up 8.38% week - on - week; the bean粕 inventory was 100.35 million tons, down 3.66% week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 2686 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2663.16 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, up 2.28 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons week - on - week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 9368 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; the national average price was 9408 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. The import cost decreased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, up 3.02% week - on - week and 1.12% year - on - year [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices of some contracts increased slightly, while the ICE cotton main contract decreased. The domestic spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton condition weakened slightly, while India's sowing area increased. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to increase, and the commercial inventory decreased, providing support for the price. The downstream demand is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.74% to 11460 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions remained stable [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased 1.52% to 13900 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the planned August出栏 volume increased, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the price. The current demand is in the off - season [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the US PPI exceeding expectations has dampened interest - rate cut expectations, causing short - term declines in precious metals and base metals. However, in the long run, factors such as global monetary policy easing, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand dynamics support the upward trend of some metals. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, while zinc is expected to decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][3]. - For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, although there are some short - term negative factors, long - term fundamentals still support a bullish view. For lithium carbonate, short - term factors such as fundamentals, funds, and sentiment support its rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Inflation exceeding expectations again dampened interest - rate cut expectations, and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, gold and silver prices declined [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US July PPI was far above expectations, with the year - on - year increase in July rising from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest since February. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range for silver is 9150 - 9400, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper prices declined under pressure, breaking through the 79,000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. Currently in the consumption off - season, demand will gradually pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the copper market is in a tight balance throughout the year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening interest - rate cut expectations. With overseas inventory accumulation in the off - season and relatively tight domestic social inventories, copper prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions at high prices. In the long term, copper prices are expected to rise [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc prices were in a narrow - range consolidation, with long and short forces in a stalemate [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is increasing. In the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. Domestic inventories are increasing, while overseas LME zinc inventories are decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, short - selling opportunities can be considered when prices are high [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in rebounding, and alumina prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, inventories are rising, and the downstream industry is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with a loose supply - demand situation in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices declined under pressure, and stainless steel prices were also under pressure [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing slightly. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure may reappear [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, and finally closed slightly higher [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, inventory has only increased slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. Supply - side rumors of production halts may lead to a short - term supply - demand mismatch [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the continued speculation of supply - side production halts, long positions can be held in the range of 84,000 - 86,500 [22].