1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautious Sell**: Crude oil, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, Methanol [1][2] - **Cautious Buy**: LPG, Urea [1][2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP, Propylene [1][2] - **Sell**: Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][4]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions provide support. Consider lightly buying [1][10]. - **L**: The agricultural film peak season is approaching. Consider buying on dips [1][15]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the peak - season restocking rhythm. Consider buying on dips [1][21]. - **PVC**: The fundamental situation is weak. Wait for a rebound to go short [1][28]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. Gradually close short positions and buy put options [1][33]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Gradually close short positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][37]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is expected to weaken. Look for short - selling opportunities and sell call options [2][41]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventories are accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, and look for long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][44]. - **Urea**: The cost side provides some support. Close short positions on the 09 contract and look for long opportunities on the 01 contract [2][48]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Lightly short the contract [2][53]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure may ease marginally. Consider buying on dips [2][59]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened. WTI dropped 1.96%, Brent dropped 0.74%, and SC dropped 0.49% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, while the pressure from OPEC+ production increase is rising. The oil price still has room to compress [4]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: IEA predicts an increase in global supply in 2025 - 2026 and a growth in demand. US commercial crude inventories increased in the week ending August 8 [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the price range of SC [475 - 495] [1][6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 13, the PG main contract closed at 3822 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price on the cost side is weak, but the basis is high, positions are rising, and the support below is increasing [9]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and port inventories rose. PDH and other downstream operating rates showed mixed trends [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy. Focus on the price range of PG [3750 - 3850] [1][10]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13][14]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price on the cost side is falling, but the spot is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The agricultural film peak season is approaching [15]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Most devices have restarted, and the import profit of LL has increased. The operating rate of agricultural film has been rising for 3 weeks [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of L [7200 - 7400] [1][15]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [19][20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, but the downside risk is limited, and the technical side has support at the bottom [21]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Upstream maintenance is high, and downstream operating rates have been rising for 2 weeks [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of PP [7050 - 7200] [1][21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5016 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamental situation is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly. The industry is expected to accumulate inventories [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Upstream operating rates have increased, and new production capacity will be released in August. Domestic and foreign demand is in the off - season [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the price range of V [4900 - 5150] [1][28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [31][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has little change, while the demand side is weakening due to PTA device maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [33]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Domestic devices have little change, overseas devices have slightly reduced loads, and PTA device maintenance has increased [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions and buy put options. Focus on the price range of PX [6630 - 6740] [1][34]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [35][36]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase after new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices. The demand side is weak [37]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: PTA device maintenance has increased, downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weak, and inventories are high [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on dips. Focus on the price range of TA [4650 - 4710] [1][38]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of MEG in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [39][40]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. The demand side is weak [41]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The operating rate of MEG devices has increased slightly, but arrivals are low. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the off - season [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the price range of EG [4360 - 4410] [2][42]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing as maintenance devices resume production, while demand is weakening, and port inventories are accumulating [44]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas device loads are rising, imports are expected to be high in August, and MTO and traditional downstream operating rates are falling [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for long opportunities for the 01 contract. Gradually close the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Focus on the price range of MA [2360 - 2390] [2][45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [46][47]. - **Basic Logic**: The operating rate is expected to rise, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good, and the cost side provides support [48]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Urea production is expected to increase, domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and exports are increasing [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions on the 09 contract and look for long opportunities on the 01 contract. Focus on the price range of UR [1710 - 1740] [2][49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 13, the BU main contract closed at 3534 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [51][52]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of crude oil is weak due to OPEC+ production increase, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing [53]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The comprehensive profit of asphalt has increased, production has increased, and inventories have decreased [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short the contract. Focus on the price range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2][54]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 contract closed at 6507 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the PP processing fee weakened [56][57]. - **Basic Logic**: The PDH cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure may ease. The downstream is entering the peak season [59]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The price of Shandong propylene has decreased, and multiple PDH devices are planned to be maintained [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of PL [6400 - 6600] [2][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish with a long - term strategic allocation recommendation, suggested to buy on dips [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds, both short - term trial and long - term investment are advised [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium - to - long - term, waiting for opportunities to short on rallies [1] - Lead: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to take long positions after corrections [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long run, showing a long - term bullish trend. The short - term price may be supported around 770, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver also has an upward trend, with a trading range of 9150 - 9400 in the short - term, and long - term investment is recommended [1][3][4] - Copper is in a high - level consolidation phase. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation overseas and it is the consumption off - season, the domestic social inventory is relatively tight. Long - term demand is expected to pick up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits [1][7][8] - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited [1][10][11] - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure due to insufficient terminal orders. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress [1][14][15] - Nickel price rebounds and then falls. With the slowdown of downstream production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate demand is about to enter the peak season. With supply - side speculation, there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch, and long positions should be held [1][22][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the impact of tariffs fades and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and impending US interest rate cuts, gold prices consolidate after a decline, and silver rebounds after stopping the decline [2] Basic Logic - Japan may raise interest rates in October. The US is likely to cut interest rates in September. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - Gold may be supported around 770 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range of silver is 9150 - 9400, and short - term trial orders can be made, while long - term investment is supported by fundamentals and the market trend [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper prices fall under pressure and test the support at 79,000 [7] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight. Although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas copper inventories accumulate slightly, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the supply - demand balance is tight throughout the year [7] Strategy Recommendation - After the macro - positive factors are realized, copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish, with the Shanghai copper price focusing on the range of [78000, 80000] and the LME copper price on [9650, 9950] dollars per ton [8] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc prices fall under pressure and show a weak and volatile trend [10] Industry Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is ample, and refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventories accumulate, while overseas LME zinc warrants are in short supply, with a risk of a soft squeeze [10] Strategy Recommendation - With tight LME zinc warrants, zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited. The Shanghai zinc price focuses on the range of [22200, 22800], and the LME zinc price on [2700, 2900] dollars per ton [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina prices first rebound and then fall [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment is positive, but downstream demand is weak, and inventories are rising. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with supply - demand remaining loose in the short - term [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel prices are under pressure [17] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and although short - term inventories decline, there is still long - term pressure [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens lower, strongly rallies, and then falls in the afternoon following market sentiment [21] Industry Logic - Although domestic weekly production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about production stoppages on the supply side, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [22] Strategy Recommendation - With the expectation of supply - side speculation still existing, long positions should be held in the range of [84200 - 88000] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | | 较 7 | 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日凌晨美农公 | | 豆粕 | 布 8 短线偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量 | | ★★ | | 及期末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，叠加中国发布对加籽反倾销调查初 | | | | 步政策，菜粕封停。豆粕价格昨日大幅上涨。但考虑阿根廷豆粕价格以及美豆产量 | | | | 环比调减幅度有限。豆粕追多操作需注意仓位管理和风控，警惕菜粕滞涨后的调整 | | | | 风险。主力【3120，3280】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term long participation [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows obvious off-season characteristics and is expected to fluctuate within a range. For rebar, the profit of blast furnaces is still good, and the profit of electric furnaces has improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, and hot metal production is at a high level. However, the demand side is still weak, and the trading volume of construction steel is hovering at a low level. The incomplete implementation of production restriction policies during the military parade supports the expectation of supply contraction, and raw material prices also bring disturbances. For hot-rolled coil, the production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, inventory has slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit has significantly declined, which may affect future exports [1][3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals show a decline in hot metal production. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The restocking of steel mills with low inventories has led to a firming of prices in the short term. Under the influence of fundamentals, iron ore prices are strong [1][7][8]. - **Coke**: Coke prices have had six rounds of increases, and the profit of coke enterprises has continued to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, which may lead to a certain contraction in supply. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. In the medium term, raw material prices may still be supported by production restriction and reduction news and maintain a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction [1][10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestically, coking coal production has remained flat month-on-month, and the absolute level is lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal production is still high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Recent news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may lead to a certain decline in market sentiment. There is a risk of short-term market fluctuations [1][13][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released, and the inquiry price for ferromanganese tender by a representative steel mill in August is 6,000 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals have weakened, factory inventories have continued to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level compared to the same period. The tender price of a representative steel mill for ferrosilicon in August is 6,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton compared to the previous round [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions are prone to fluctuations. The expected price range is [3,190, 3,250] [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions may fluctuate. The expected price range is [3,410, 3,470] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be strong, and short-term long participation is recommended. The expected price range is [780, 815] [1][7][8]. Coke - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see due to potential price corrections. The expected price range is [1,710, 1,760] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and wait and see. The expected price range is [1,200, 1,260] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cautiously bullish. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. The expected price range is [5,954, 6,194] [1][16][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish. In the short term, the price is supported by market sentiment, but in the medium term, the price may be under pressure. The expected price range is [5,675, 5,965] [1][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon, the general sentiment is cautiously bullish, with iron ore recommended for short-term long positions [1]. Core Views - **Rebar**: Supply-side policies continue to disrupt the market, and it may strengthen in the short term due to production cuts during the military parade by Tangshan independent rolling enterprises. The current market still shows off-season characteristics [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but export profits have declined significantly. Macro expectations provide support, and production restrictions during the military parade in Tangshan may stimulate short-term strength [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Driven by steel mills' restocking, the price is oscillating strongly. The fundamentals dominate, and the price is bullish [1][7][8]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and recent coal production restriction news has boosted market sentiment, leading to short-term high-level fluctuations [1][10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has also declined. Although iron water production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations, resulting in short-term high-level fluctuations [1][13][14]. - **Ferromanganese**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some regions. The tender inquiry price of a landmark steel mill in August has increased, and port ore prices are firm, providing short-term support for alloy prices [1][16][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals are weakening, with a significant increase in factory inventory and high delivery inventory. New steel tenders have started, and most mills' tender volume and price have increased. In the short term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but in the medium term, it may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis, spreads, and other indicators also show corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar shows off-season characteristics, with iron water production slightly decreasing, and production and apparent demand increasing. Hot-rolled coil production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with export profits declining [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed. Spot prices and indexes have also adjusted [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Iron water production has decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased. Steel mills' restocking has led to a firm price in the short term [8]. Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices have risen, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are relatively stable, and production and inventory data show small changes [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and production restriction news has boosted market sentiment [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are stable, and production and inventory data have changed slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has declined. Iron water production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations [14]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. Spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply-demand contradiction of ferromanganese is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased. The tender price of a landmark steel mill has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are weakening, with increased inventory and new steel tenders starting [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, Urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - **Bearish**: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - **L**: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - **PVC**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - **Urea**: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - **Asphalt**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry News**: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industry News**: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - **Industry News**: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★ [1] - Aluminum: ★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, presenting a long - term bullish trend. Short - term gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [1][3][4]. - Copper is expected to strengthen due to lower - than - expected US inflation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term bullish outlook. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [1][8]. - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with the center of gravity rising as Shanghai zinc follows the external market. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [1][15]. - Nickel prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range is [121000 - 123500] [1][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a price range of [81000 - 86000] [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the delay of Sino - US tariffs by 90 days and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and US data supporting significant interest rate cuts, gold and silver prices declined and then consolidated [2]. Basic Logic - US tariff revenue reached a new high, but the government budget deficit still expanded. Inflation data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the September interest rate cut expectation rising to 95% and the annual interest rate cut expectation rising to 2.48 times. The US government pressured for interest rate cuts. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold may find support around 770 in the short - term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's trading range is 9100 - 9300, and long positions can be entered after the price stops falling. Long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper gapped down overnight and faced resistance during the rebound [7]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally, the current refined copper production is at a high level. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. LME copper inventory build - up has slowed, and domestic social copper inventory is tight [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, it is recommended to hold long positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review - London zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and Shanghai zinc followed the upward trend [10]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. The demand side is affected by factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic off - season, leading to a decline in the expected start - up rate of galvanized enterprises. Domestic zinc inventory is building up, while overseas London zinc warehouse receipts are being depleted, posing a risk of a soft squeeze [10]. Strategy Recommendation - With the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, Shanghai zinc will follow the external market in the short - term, with the center of gravity rising. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices had a short - term rebound, and alumina had a rebound and then a decline [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment is positive. The cost has decreased, inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is stable, but there are some disturbances in domestic bauxite. Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to remain loose [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the short - term rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices had a short - term rebound, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production has increased. Stainless steel production cuts have led to some inventory reduction, but overall, there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [121000 - 123500] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, dropping more than 6000 points from the high [21]. Industrial Logic - Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, the total inventory has only increased by less than 700 tons, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about supply disruptions, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. From a capital perspective, the 09 contract has a high open interest but a low warehouse receipt volume [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the continued speculation about supply disruptions, it is recommended to hold long positions in the range of [81000 - 86000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | 豆粕 | 警惕数据调整 | 较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日受中国公布 | | ★ | 风险 | 对加籽反倾销调查结果提振，跟随菜粕价格上涨。关注本周三凌晨 8 月 USDA 报告 | | | | 美豆单产情况，市场预计环比趋向调增风险，追多谨慎对待。主力【3030，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅偏低，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较 | | ★★ | 短线偏多 | 强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大。昨日中国发布对加籽反倾销调 | | | | 查结果，叠加报告公 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量环比微降，绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量及表观需求环比上升，库存有 | | | 谨慎看多 | 所增加。建筑钢材成交低位运行，整体仍体现淡季特征。唐山独立轧钢企业阅兵期间停 | | ★ | | 产，供应端政策继续扰动市场，短期或有走强。【3220，3280】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，唐山阅兵期间限产消息或刺激短期有 | | ★ | | 所走强。【3430，3490】 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【780,815】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再 ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][34][38][42] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, propylene [1][14][21][28][56] - **Bearish**: Methanol, asphalt [3][46][52] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center continues to move down. Although the decline space is narrowing, there is still a downward pressure on oil prices. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [1][5]. - **LPG**: With the cost side stabilizing and the high basis, the rebound momentum is increasing. The downstream chemical demand is fair, but the supply and inventory are neutral to bearish [1][11]. - **L**: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally. The supply pressure has increased marginally, but the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline [1][18]. - **PP**: The cost support has improved, but the downstream trading is weak. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. Pay attention to the peak - season restocking rhythm [1][25]. - **PVC**: It rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1][32]. - **PX**: The supply side has little change, while the demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices. The expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening, and the inventory is still relatively high. Be cautiously bearish [1][36]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of devices has increased recently, and the future supply pressure is expected to rise. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is weakening. Be cautiously bearish [1][40]. - **MEG**: The domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken. Be cautiously bearish [1][44]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing as the domestic maintenance devices resume production and overseas devices increase their loads. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Be bearish [3][46]. - **Urea**: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, but the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and the export is relatively good. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [3][50]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation. The valuation is high, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [3][54]. - **Propylene**: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and the downstream demand is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, and it is advisable to try to go long on dips [3][59]. 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated in a range. WTI rose 0.13%, Brent rose 0.06%, and SC fell 0.79% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually weakening, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase is rising. The oil price still has room to compress, but the downward support is strengthening. The medium - long - term price may reach around $60. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from January to July increased by 38% year - on - year. Azerbaijan's September BTC crude oil exports were lower than August. Shandong independent refinery's oil arrivals decreased by 8.18% week - on - week. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - long - term trend, due to new energy substitution and OPEC expansion, supply is gradually in surplus. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells at around $60. Technically, it is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support is rising. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PG main contract closed at 3,803 yuan/ton, down 0.89% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,500 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,403 (-3) yuan/ton, and 4,380 (0) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of oil is weak, but the self - fundamentals are fair, with a high basis. The recent increase in positions has strengthened the downward support. The supply has increased slightly, while the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have shown different trends. The refinery inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, after the geopolitical risks are released, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the LPG - to - crude oil ratio is similar to the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. Technically, the RSI is in the oversold range, and positions have reached a high level, indicating a possible short - term rebound. The strategy is to try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3,750 - 3,850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,314 yuan/ton. The North China main basis was - 64 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 400 [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally, with continuous increases in spot prices. Most devices have restarted recently, increasing the supply pressure. However, the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the operating rate has been rising for three consecutive weeks. The absolute price has a low valuation, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline. The strategy is to try to go long on dips as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of L [7,200 - 7,400] [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 closed at 7,095 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 yuan/ton and a PP9 - 1 spread of - 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of propylene has increased, improving the cost support, but the downstream trading is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly. The upstream maintains a high level of maintenance, and the export profit has turned negative. The domestic demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season, and the downstream operating rate has been rising for two consecutive weeks. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. The strategy is to try to go long on pull - backs as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of PP [7,000 - 7,150] [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pull - backs [26]. PVC - **Market Review**: The main contract V2509 closed at 5,010 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,745, mainly distributed in Hangzhou Wanfeng Warehouse, Benniu Warehouse, and Zhejiang Guomao Warehouse. The V2601 contract increased its positions by 70,000 lots, closing at 5,158 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of thermal coal has been rising continuously, and PVC rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase. However, the fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in warehouse receipts. The upstream operating rate has increased to 79%, and the social inventory has been accumulating for seven consecutive weeks. New production capacity will be gradually released in August, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The strategy is to rebound in the short - term following the cost range and wait to go short after the rebound. Pay attention to the range of V [4,900 - 5,100] [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [33]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 (-30) yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 50 (+4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 149 (-2.4) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic PX devices have little change, while overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads. The PXN spread is at a high level this year. The demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices due to low processing fees, and the expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening. The inventory is still relatively high. Recently, there is no macro - level positive news at home and abroad, and the oil price is fluctuating weakly. Be cautiously bearish [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of PX [6,700 - 6,795] [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA price in East China was 4,670 (-15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,684 (-4) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+18) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 14 (-11) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fees are generally low, and the supply - side devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand side, including downstream polyester and terminal weaving, is weak. The TA inventory is high, and the cost support is weakening. The expected tight balance of supply and demand in August is loosening. Be cautiously bearish, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long at the bottom due to low processing fees [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of TA [4,660 - 4,730] [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,456 (-19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,384 (-12) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 38 (-4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 72 (-7) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic MEG devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the off - season, and the terminal orders are generally low. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in August, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions and look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of EG [4,380 - 4,430] [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,393 (-3) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,383 (-5) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 10 (+2) yuan/ton, the port basis was - 3 (+3) yuan/ton, and the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 (+17) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is increasing, and the 8 - month arrivals are expected to be high. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is stabilizing. The market is expected to be bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Gradually take profit on the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2,365 - 2,395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,760 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,728 (-9) yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was - 23 (-3) yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 32 (-11) yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions of the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR [1,710 - 1,740] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 11, the BU main contract closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,680 (-80) yuan/ton, 3,730 (-50) yuan/ton, and 3,580 (0) yuan/ton respectively [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The current asphalt profit is fair, but the cracking spread is at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation, and the price is under pressure in the medium - long term [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, and the valuation is high. As OPEC gradually expands production, the raw material supply is relatively sufficient. It is advisable to lay out short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3,450 - 3,550] [55]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 contract closed at 6,491 yuan/ton [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply, and the futures price became at a discount to the Shandong spot price. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and although the operating rates of PDH and MTO have marginally increased, the downstream demand is insufficient. The PP powder operating rate is at a low level in the same period, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, remaining at a high level in the same period. The fundamentals are still in an over - supply structure. However, the absolute price is low [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of PL [6,400 - 6,600] [59].