20250430中辉期货生猪月报： 增产周期尚未触底 警惕前期增重释放风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z0000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025.04.30 生猪观点摘要 一、现货表现 1、本周，全国生猪均价环比下降0.02元/公斤至14.95元/公斤。其中，河南市场环比下降0.12元/公斤至14.83元/公斤; 云南市场持平于15元/公斤;山西市场环比下降0.16元/公斤至14.65元/公斤;重庆市场环比下降0.25元至14.6元/公斤;四 川市场环比提升0.1于14.7元/公斤。 2、本周，样本养殖企业淘汰母猪现货均价环比上行0.31元至10.91元/kg。样本企业50kg二元母猪现货均价持平于 1641.43元/头。当前补栏热度不高，规模养殖场多自留，成交积极性偏低，成交数量有限，价格波动不大，市场平稳。 3、目前仔猪价格已然高位， 成交表现一般，补栏积极性下降，7kg仔猪出栏均价环比下降0.95至523.81元/头，15kg 仔猪出栏均价环比下降108.69元/头至550元/头。 二、供给端表现 短期来看，4月养殖场出栏进度偏慢，供应节奏放缓，体重延续小幅度增长。由 ...

钢材月报： 短期矛盾不大 中期仍将下行 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货研究院 2025/4/30 观点摘要 【供需概况】：4月份行情的主要驱动首先是特朗普的关税战，从目前情况看，对国内影响相对有限，近期特 朗普的表态也有缓和，后期若美国国内情况继续恶化，中美关税问题有出现转机的可能，未来不排除关税问题 的向上修复行情。后期另一变量是粗钢压产政策。从相关信息看，1-2个月内或难落地。而即使落地，对本已 宽松的原料端会形成更大压力，对钢材无法形成趋势性反转的驱动。从供需角度看，目前虽然从现实看五大材 并无明显矛盾，但高位运行的铁水产量给了市场供应充足的预期，而需求端面临5月中旬之后的国内需求走弱 ，以及部分国家反倾销政策、国内禁止"买单出口"压力之下出口回落的可能，整体供需存在一定宽松预期。 行情回顾 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 • 春节之后，工地复工进度偏慢，钢材出口遭遇关税壁垒，同时原料端双焦持续下行，带动钢材走弱。清明假期期 间，特朗普发起贸易战，中美互加145%关税，商品整体大幅回落，螺纹钢主力在悲观情绪下打出3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of the China - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started. In China, soybean inventories at ports and oil mills have been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, and the supply of soybean meal is temporarily tight before and after the May Day holiday. The monthly import volume from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. The price of soybean meal continued to fall yesterday, and the downward space is limited before the holiday [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal at oil mills have decreased. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. The decline in soybean meal prices has led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. With the approaching of the new rapeseed listing in China, there is short - term supply pressure [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased. The improvement in marginal supply and the expectation of continuous improvement may cause the price center of international palm oil to gradually decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure for the time being [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Decline and adjustment. US cotton sowing is ongoing, and the improvement of soil moisture is negative for the market. The tariff war has entered a phased buffer, and the demand is expected to recover. However, the overall market recession expectation has not been significantly reversed. In China, the new cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is entering the seasonal off - season [1][11][12]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. Currently, there are limited disturbances in the planting end. The supply in the downstream market is relatively sufficient, and the market is in the traditional consumption off - season. The arrival of seasonal fresh fruits has squeezed the market, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Low - level oscillation. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the release of large - weight pigs may further suppress prices. The consumer end lacks continuous growth momentum, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed [1][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The impact of the China - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started. The initial planting progress and weather outlook are relatively smooth [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From April to June, the monthly import volume is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, soybean inventories at ports and oil mills have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, while soybean meal inventories are still decreasing. The spot supply of soybean meal is tight, driving the recent soybean meal market [3]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 2964 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3602.29 yuan/ton, down 2.35% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 25, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 25.5 tons, down 6.5 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.97 tons, down 0.02 tons; the unexecuted contract was 7.72 tons, down 0.7 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than that of the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested and listed in May. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 900 yuan/ton, reducing the substitution of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal has driven the rise of rapeseed meal prices [7]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2588 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2624.21 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 18, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 38.44 tons, up 3.58% from the previous week and down 22.62% year - on - year [9]. - **Market Situation**: In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased. The production growth rate is greater than the export growth rate, and there is a risk of weakening. The near - month contract may have strong price support due to the high basis and limited imports [1][9]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The national average price was 8865 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has improved the soil moisture. In Brazil, the cumulative rainfall in Mato Grosso has decreased, and the soil moisture in the cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The sowing of Xinjiang cotton is mostly completed, and the high - yield expectation remains. The spring peak season is ending, and the orders and operating rates of textile enterprises are falling [12]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of cotton (CF2509) closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14261 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10][11]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10505 tons, a decrease of 16 tons from the previous week. The market trading atmosphere is light, and prices are stable [16]. - **Market Situation**: As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits gradually weakens, and the future demand is expected to decline. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [16]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of red dates (CJ2509) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [14][16]. Live Pigs - **Supply Situation**: Due to the slight decline in the number of piglets born at the end of 2024, the supply pressure from April to June will have limited increase. In the third quarter, the supply pressure will remain relatively high. The long - term supply pressure in the second half of 2025 is expected to deepen [18]. - **Demand Situation**: After the festival, the demand has increased slightly, but the relative level is still low. The support of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the improvement of seasonal demand needs attention [18]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13930 yuan/ton, down 1.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14940 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PTR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production expansion, and cost fluctuations, with most varieties showing weak or bearish trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Condition**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down 2.63%, Brent down 2.33%, and domestic SC down 1.23% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production expansion lead to weak oil prices, but the approaching trading season strengthens short - term support. Supply and demand factors and inventory changes also affect the market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, and the price fluctuates between $55 - 65. In the short - term, the price is below the 5 - day moving average, and it's recommended to hold light positions or buy options to hedge risks during the May Day holiday. SC focuses on [470 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Condition**: On April 29, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by tariff policies, the import cost of propane rises, but the continuous decline in oil prices drags down the cost, resulting in a weak trend. There are changes in factors such as warehouse receipts, cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the cost support is weak, and the trend mainly follows oil prices. Technically, it's below the 5 - day moving average. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. PG focuses on [4350 - 4420] [9]. L - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has new production capacity, and some import windows are open or about to open. The demand side is at the end of the seasonal peak for agricultural films. The cost of crude oil falls, and the fundamentals are weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies. L focuses on [7030 - 7200] [12]. PP - **Market Condition**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, the warehouse receipts decline, and the supply - demand is weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - term. PP focuses on [7030 - 7150] [15]. PVC - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - **Basic Logic**: As the delivery month approaches, the main contract shifts positions, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side has seasonal changes. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks. V focuses on [4880 - 5020] [18]. PX - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64) [19]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side maintenance is high. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production expansion, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory lead to a weakening trend [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6150 - 6250] [20]. PTA - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the PTA price in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The high volume of PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory decreases, and the cost support is limited. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4360 - 4460] [24]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, the arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is high. The cost support is weak, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4160 - 4220] [27]. Glass - **Market Condition**: The spot market price was stable, the futures was weakly volatile, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is cautious due to the trade war and lack of incremental policies. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand has seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period. The upstream inventory accumulates again, and the short - term rebound is suppressed [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1080 - 1120] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Condition**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was raised, the futures was slightly bullish, the basis narrowed, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The planned maintenance of soda ash enterprises in May may reduce supply, but the over - capacity remains. The downstream demand changes little, and the inventory is still high. The market sentiment warms up, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the medium - term upward drive is lacking [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1335 - 1380] [32]. Methanol - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1) [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the device maintenance reduces the load, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the arrival expectation is likely to be fulfilled. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory decreases slightly, and the cost support is weak. It's recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2255 - 2285] [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold has long - term strategic allocation value and is in high - level adjustment. Silver is in wide - range adjustment. Copper is recommended to be held in a light or empty position during the holiday and is bullish in the long - term. Zinc is recommended to be held in an empty position during the holiday and shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under pressure. Tin shows a trend of rising and then falling. Aluminum is in a rebound trend. Nickel shows a trend of rebounding and then falling. Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish [1]. - For gold and silver, there are many uncertainties, and protection measures should be taken. Short - term gold sentiment is slack, and one can participate after it stops falling and stabilizes. Silver should be treated with a shock - trading mindset [2][3]. - For copper, due to the upcoming release of important macro - data and Trump's tough tariff stance, it is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday, but it is bullish in the long - term [4][5]. - For zinc, due to the approaching holiday and rising risk - aversion sentiment, it is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday and short on rallies in the long - term [7][8]. - For aluminum, with inventory digestion, the price has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [10][11]. - For nickel and stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on inventory changes [12][13]. - For lithium carbonate, the price continues to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Data**: SHFE gold price is 785.14, up 0.65% from the previous value; COMEX gold price is 3328, down 0.81%. SHFE silver price is 8215, up 0.58%; COMEX silver price is 33, down 0.54%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio is 95.57, up 0.08% [2]. - **Logic**: The US commodity trade deficit in March increased by 9.6% to 162 billion US dollars. The 90 - day trade negotiation involves multiple countries, and the US recession trend will be exacerbated by tariffs. Gold's short - term adjustment is affected by factors such as the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, but the bull - market logic remains unchanged [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term gold can be participated in after it stops falling and stabilizes. Silver should be treated with a shock - trading mindset in the range of [8100, 8400], and buy options can be used for protection during the holiday [3]. Copper - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 77630 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.22%. The total social inventory is 155,100 tons, a decrease of 26,600 tons [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is constantly disrupted, and the processing fee of copper concentrates hits a new low. Demand shows resilience, but is affected by copper price fluctuations and US tariff policies. As the peak season ends, inventory digestion may slow down [5]. - **Strategy**: During the May Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and hold a light or empty position. In the long - term, copper is bullish. The short - term range of Shanghai copper is [76500, 78500] yuan/ton, and that of London copper is [9200, 9600] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc is 22530 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The total inventory of zinc exchanges is 51,378 tons, a decrease of 7207 tons [7]. - **Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose. The import of zinc concentrates in March decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the start - up rate of enterprises is falling [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold an empty position during the May Day holiday. In the long - term, short on rallies. The range of Shanghai zinc is [22000, 23000] yuan/ton, and that of London zinc is [2600, 2700] US dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 19930 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The LME aluminum inventory is 417,575 tons, down 0.48% [10]. - **Logic**: The impact of overseas tariff policies weakens. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory decreases, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises increases. The supply and demand pattern of alumina is temporarily relieved [11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, focusing on the performance of the peak season. The main operating range is [19600, 20300] yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 124180 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The SMM pure nickel social inventory is 44,661 tons, up 1.59% [12]. - **Logic**: The impact of the overseas macro - environment weakens. The increase in the nickel ore royalty in Indonesia supports the price, but domestic inventory is at a high level. The inventory digestion of stainless steel encounters resistance, and the supply - demand surplus continues [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000, 129000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of the main contract LC2507 is 66,260 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The total inventory is 131,864 tons, up 0.20% [14]. - **Logic**: The fundamental situation has not improved significantly, with 11 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. Downstream pre - holiday restocking willingness is low, and demand has no seasonal increase. Although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of negative feedback [15]. - **Strategy**: The price is in a weak trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the range of [65000, 69000] [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in high - level adjustment with long - term strategic allocation value due to unsolved contradictions, uncertain tariff negotiations, and the trend of de - dollarization [1][2] - Silver is in wide - range adjustment. Short - term tariff negotiations improve sentiment, but mid - term uncertainty is high [1] - Copper is expected to fall in the short - term due to approaching holidays and rising risk - aversion. However, it is still favored in the long - term [1][5] - Zinc is expected to fall in the short - term because of policy expectation disappointment and holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak [1][8] - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to their respective supply - demand situations [1] - Aluminum prices continue to rebound as overseas environment eases, supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing [1][11] - Nickel prices rebound and then fall because of the contradiction at the Indonesian nickel mine end and slow stainless - steel de - stocking [1][13] - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish due to supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Conditions - SHFE gold is at 780.04, down 0.91% from the previous value and 6.18% from last week; COMEX gold is at 3361, up 0.92% from the previous value and down 0.91% from last week. SHFE silver is at 8168, down 1.35% from the previous value and 0.07% from last week; COMEX silver is at 34, up 0.89% from the previous value and 4.22% from last week [2] 3.1.2 Basic Logic - Tariff negotiations are in a deadlock. The US plans to negotiate with 18 trade partners in a fixed mode. If no agreement is reached, equal tariffs will be implemented [2] - A large amount of investment funds has withdrawn from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, with an outflow of $1.27 billion, the largest since 2011 [2] - The short - term adjustment of gold is affected by the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the alleviation of concerns about the Fed's independence, and trading congestion. But the bull - market logic remains unchanged [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For short - term, when the short - term sentiment relaxes and the price stops falling and stabilizes, continue to participate. For silver, use a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8400] [3] 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE copper is 77630, down 0.22% from the previous day; LME copper is at 9428, up 0.38% from the previous day; COMEX copper is at 490, down 0.01% from the previous day [4] 3.2.2 Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is constantly disturbed, and copper concentrate processing fees continue to hit new lows. Demand shows resilience, but enterprises' order expectations are cautious due to price fluctuations and US tariff policies [5] 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, as the May Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to gradually take profits on long copper positions, and hold light positions or be empty - handed during the holiday. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [76000, 78000], and LME copper focuses on [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [5] 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE zinc is 22530, up 0.07% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2639, down 0.28% from the previous day [7] 3.3.2 Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose. The import of zinc concentrate in March decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Refining zinc smelter profits are positive, and downstream demand is entering the off - season [7] 3.3.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc prices will fall again due to holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak. Look for opportunities to short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2680] dollars/ton [8][9] 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME aluminum is 2431, down 0.27% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 19935, down 0.47% from the previous value [10] 3.4.2 Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy disturbances weaken, inventory decreases, and downstream demand is in the peak season. For alumina, the supply and demand surplus situation is temporarily alleviated [11] 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to lightly go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices, paying attention to the performance of the peak season. The main operating range is [19500 - 20300]. Alumina is expected to run relatively weakly [11] 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME nickel is 15590, up 0.65% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 124690, down 0.88% from the previous value [12] 3.5.2 Industrial Logic - The Indonesian nickel mine policy increases costs, providing some support for nickel prices. Domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a relatively high level. Stainless - steel inventory de - stocking faces resistance, and the industry is in a state of oversupply [13] 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 129000] [13] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Conditions - The price of the main contract LC2507 is 66,960, down 1.79% from the previous value [14] 3.6.2 Industrial Logic - The fundamental situation has not improved significantly, with 11 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation indicating a supply - demand imbalance. Downstream pre - holiday replenishment willingness is low, and demand has no seasonal increase. Although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of negative feedback [15] 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - The price is expected to run weakly. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with the range [65000, 69000] [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase lead to a weak oil price, while the upcoming trade peak season strengthens the short - term downside support [2]. - LPG follows the oil price for consolidation, with short - term cost support but weak strength [7]. - For L, the high - operation of devices, abundant supply, and weakening demand result in a bearish outlook [10]. - PP shows a short - term support due to high parking ratio and weak supply - demand, but a bearish long - term outlook [13]. - PVC has a cost - supported low - level sideways movement, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [16]. - PX has an improved April fundamental and is currently fluctuating with cost, showing a bullish sideways trend [18]. - PTA has reduced supply pressure, but the downstream polyester is expected to weaken, with a short - term bullish trend and opportunities to short at high levels [22]. - Ethylene glycol has a high arrival volume and expected weakening demand, with limited cost support and a bearish short - term adjustment [24]. - Glass has a stable low - level supply, seasonal demand improvement, but high inventory restricts the short - term rebound [27]. - Soda ash has a short - term warm sideways movement due to reduced supply, but a bearish mid - term outlook due to new capacity [1]. - Methanol has a large supply pressure, weakening demand, and weak cost support, with a bearish short - term outlook [29]. - Urea has a large supply pressure and weak demand, but fast - growing fertilizer exports, with a bearish outlook and opportunities to go long on pullbacks [33]. - Asphalt has a high crack spread and a bearish rebound, with a weak and sideways cost - end oil price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined (WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.53%), while domestic SC rose 0.06% [2]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 483. Kazakhstan's March oil production decreased by about 3% to 62.7 barrels per day [2]. - **Demand**: In April, Russia's supply of ESPO blended oil to Indian ports increased to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5 million barrels to 397.5 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65, short - term is weak, and SC focuses on [480 - 500] [3]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 28, the main PG contract closed at 4,395 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [5][6]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the total LPG commodity volume was 515,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [7]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased by 3.09pct, 2.18pct, and 0.51pct respectively [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, refinery inventory was 163,200 tons, down 1,000 tons, and port inventory was 2.8402 million tons, up 175,700 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Long - term cost support is weak, follow the oil price for consolidation, and conduct PG05 - 06 positive spread operation and sell call options. PG focuses on [4350 - 4450] [7]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L09 (main contract) closed at 7,164 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Supply**: New production capacity of 2.08 million tons has been put into operation this year, and the LLDPE, LDPE film, and HDPE film import windows are closed [10]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film season is ending, and demand is gradually weakening [10]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.9% to 530,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Go short at high levels, and L focuses on [7080 - 7200] [10]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7,112 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [12]. - **Supply**: Baofeng's 1 million tons/year PP device was successfully put into operation in the first quarter, and attention is paid to the commissioning progress of Zhongjing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year PDH device [13]. - **Demand**: Product exports are under pressure due to tariff disturbances [13]. - **Inventory**: PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.4% to 600,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, mid - term short at high levels, and PP focuses on [7050 - 7150] [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V09 (main contract) closed at 4,989 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [15]. - **Supply**: Xinpu Chemical's 500,000 - ton device was put into operation in January, and the capacity utilization rate is 79% [16]. - **Demand**: The decline in real - estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally [16]. - **Inventory**: PVC仓单 decreased by 0.3% to 29,653 [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and V focuses on [4920 - 5060] [16]. 3.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,600 yuan/ton (flat), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,230 yuan/ton (+64) [17]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with the weekly output of 647,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [18]. - **Demand**: PTA device maintenance is high, and the demand is expected to weaken [18]. - **Inventory**: In March, PX inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1,064, lower than the same period [18]. - **Strategy**: PX focuses on [6220 - 6320] [19]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,400 yuan/ton (+30) [20][21]. - **Supply**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, with a weekly output of 1.393 million tons, up 55,000 tons [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [22]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory decreased to 4.804 million tons in March, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: TA focuses on [4420 - 4520], and pay attention to shorting at high levels [22]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,160 yuan/ton (-19) [23]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, with a high expected arrival volume of 248,000 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: EG focuses on [4150 - 4220] [25]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement, the main contract basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [27]. - **Supply**: The glass supply remains stable at a low level, and the cold - repair plan of manufacturers slows down after the cost decreases [27]. - **Demand**: The demand shows a seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the real - estate industry has not stabilized [27]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory increased by 395,000 heavy boxes to 65.473 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [27]. - **Strategy**: FG focuses on [1100 - 1140] [27]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement [1]. - **Supply**: There are many maintenance plans, and the supply is expected to decrease [1]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: The alkali plant inventory decreases slightly [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content other than the price range in the provided documents. 3.11 Methanol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,288 yuan/ton (-1) [29]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol devices are under maintenance, but the supply pressure is still large, and the import is expected to increase in May [29]. - **Demand**: The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [29]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of methanol decreases slightly to 773,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: MA focuses on [2260 - 2310], and go short on rebounds [29][30]. 3.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/ton (flat), and the main contract closed at 1,757 yuan/ton (-1) [32]. - **Supply**: The maintenance devices are gradually restarted, with a high daily output, and the supply pressure is large [33]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, and the industrial demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are growing fast [33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulates, with the factory inventory at 1.065 million tons and the port inventory at 117,000 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The price range of UR is [1760 - 1790], and pay attention to going long on pullbacks [33]. 3.13 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific recent market performance content mentioned other than the price range in the provided documents. - **Supply**: No specific supply - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: Both social and factory inventories are increasing [1]. - **Strategy**: The price range of BU is [3400 - 3500], and go short on rebounds [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. Considering the pre - holiday capital risk aversion, the continuous downward space is limited, and it will mainly show a weak consolidation before the holiday [1]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to decline in the short - term. After the holiday, attention can be paid to whether it can build a second bottom - hunting and stabilizing opportunity above 2570 yuan [1]. - Palm oil will experience a short - term oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to Malaysian data and the risk of weakening, and also to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1]. - Cotton is expected to return to a weak rhythm in the short - term. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of subsequent tariff policies [1]. - The jujube market is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1]. - The pig market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The impact of the Sino - US trade tariff increase event on the upside is limited. South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started. The current planting progress and weather outlook are relatively smooth [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the soybean meal inventory is still in a state of destocking, and the spot supply of soybean meal is tight. As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 29.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 84.69%. The near - month contract remains strong, but the main contract is expected to run bearishly in the short - term. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long [1][2][3]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2985 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3688 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 9700 tons, both showing a decrease compared to the previous week. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than that of the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested and listed in May [7]. - **Price Influence Factors**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently expanded to over 900 yuan/ton, reducing the substitutability of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal due to short - term supply shortages has driven up the price of rapeseed meal. In addition, the continuous rise of Canadian rapeseed in the past two days and strong export demand have supported the domestic rapeseed meal price. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long due to the approaching new - season rapeseed harvest [7]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2641 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2657.37 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of April 18, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 384,400 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.62%. From April 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. From April 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products increased to varying degrees [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of palm oil is expected to decline in the short - term. The near - month contract may be strongly supported due to the high basis and limited current imports. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1][8][9]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 8174 yuan/ton, down 2.41% from the previous day. The national average price was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [8]. Cotton - **International**: As of the week of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The US main cotton - producing areas are expected to receive rainfall this weekend to improve soil moisture. In Brazil, the cumulative rainfall in Mato Grosso has decreased recently, and the soil moisture in the cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton sowing in Xinjiang is gradually coming to an end, and the overall climate is favorable for growth. The demand is entering the seasonal off - season, and textile enterprises are replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis. In March 2025, the domestic retail of clothing and textiles was still resilient, and the foreign trade export data improved. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound [12][13]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 12950 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The domestic spot average price was 14261 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10][11]. Jujube - **Production Area**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,505 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits will weaken [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the jujube market has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently [15]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of jujube, CJ2509, closed at 9070 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [14][15]. Pig - **Supply**: The high - level decline in the number of piglets born at the end of 2024 means that the supply pressure from April to June will have limited growth. After the holiday, there is still a certain amount of second - fattening waiting to enter the market. The increase in the number of piglets from January to February 2025 indicates that the supply pressure in the third quarter will remain relatively high. In the long term, the increase in the number of breeding sows in February deepens the expectation of overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025. The inventory is continuously increasing slightly, and the average slaughter weight and frozen - product storage rate are continuously rising [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has increased slightly after the holiday, but the relative level is still low. The support from second - fattening has slowed down, but the improvement in seasonal demand still needs attention [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [18]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14960 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the global soybean market, the US soybean planting progress is 8%, higher than 7% last year, and the future 15 - day rainfall outlook is favorable. South American soybean production is basically a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, although the supply of soybeans is increasing, the current inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be tight around the Labor Day and will gradually ease after the holiday. With a positive outlook for feed consumption, soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term [4][5][6]. - Regarding rapeseed, although China's rapeseed imports decreased in March, the demand for Canadian rapeseed is strong, and the price has risen. The new rapeseed production in the EU is expected to be stable. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure of rapeseed meal is large, but the consumption of rapeseed meal is expected to increase due to the start of aquaculture. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in rapeseed meal [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Market - **Soybean**: The US soybean planting rate as of April 20 is 8%, higher than market expectations. The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending April 17 was 55.09 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate as of April 19 is 92.5%. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated at 49 million tons [27][30]. - **Rapeseed**: China's rapeseed imports in March decreased, but Canadian rapeseed demand and exports are strong. The EU's rapeseed import data increased year - on - year. The new rapeseed production in the EU is expected to be stable, and Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase slightly [8]. Domestic Market - **Supply and Inventory** - **Soybean**: As of April 18, the national port soybean inventory is 4.705 million tons, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory is 4.2591 million tons. The soybean meal inventory is 125,500 tons, a significant decrease from last week [32][40]. - **Rapeseed**: As of April 18, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 320,000 tons. The national main - area rapeseed meal inventory is 623,500 tons, an increase from last week [47][51]. - **Consumption** - **Soybean Meal**: The downstream livestock and poultry inventories are in good condition, and the feed consumption is expected to be optimistic. The first - quarter pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The start of aquaculture is beneficial for rapeseed meal consumption, but the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased due to price changes [9]. - **Price and Spread** - **Soybean Meal**: As of April 25, the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts in Jiangsu is 762 yuan/ton and 669 yuan/ton respectively, and the 9 - 5 spread is 93 yuan/ton [42]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of April 25, the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts in Nantong is 30 yuan/ton and - 84 yuan/ton respectively, and the 9 - 5 spread is 114 yuan/ton. The futures 09 - contract and spot spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are 347 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [53][56]. Trade Situation - The US - China trade situation has been tense, with multiple rounds of tariff increases. The US has imposed high - level tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has also taken corresponding counter - measures, including increasing tariffs on US imports, listing US entities on the export - control list, and filing lawsuits at the WTO [17][19][23].