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中辉农产品观点-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:58
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定,美豆种植开启,进度远高于去年及五年均值,且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作,按照 CPC 月度展望来看,6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面,国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库,随着开机率上升,豆粕供应将逐步缓解,逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低,存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上,供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | 豆粕 | | 空豆粕,但由于 23%的关税依然存在,美豆暂无性价比,对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟,减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪,但实际减产预计有限。受阿根廷暴雨及美政府对欧盟贸易风波影响,豆粕近日 | | | | 反弹,但美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库,整体基本面偏空,看多暂以技术性反弹 | | | | 对待,也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3030 元附近及以上继续追多需注意仓位及风 ...
中辉期货:原油
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to be volatile. OPEC+ has determined the 2027 production benchmark, and the market is waiting for the results of the meeting of 8 member countries on Saturday. The summer consumption peak is approaching, providing support for near - term prices, but the long - term supply increase may put pressure on prices. SC is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel [1][4][5]. - **LPG**: Expected to be volatile. The pressure from warehouse receipts has been released, and the downstream start - up is expected to pick up, providing support for prices. However, the cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [1][7][8]. - **L**: Expected to be weak. The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. Short - term downstream replenishment is only periodic. It is recommended to hold short positions. L is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][10]. - **PP**: Expected to be weak. The commercial inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, but the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year. A new production peak is coming from May to July, and the export is weak due to rising freight. It is recommended to hold short positions. PP is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [1][13]. - **PVC**: Expected to be weak. The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. It is recommended to hold short positions. V is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1][16]. - **PX**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [1][18]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. PTA inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. TA is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [1][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall. EG is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [1][22][23]. - **Glass**: Expected to be volatile. The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. FG is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [2][26]. - **Soda Ash**: Expected to be weak. The new production capacity is put into operation, the supply is abundant, the demand support is weak, and the cost center is moving down. The price is expected to continue to decline. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to be weakly stable. The supply is increasing overall with regional differences, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The spot price is slowly rising. SA is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [2][31]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to go long with a light position at low levels. The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, but the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Asphalt**: Expected to be volatile. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI rising 1.56%, Brent rising 1.18%, and SC falling 0.83%. The supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ continues its production - increase plan, and the demand growth rate is expected to be stable. The inventory data shows an increase in strategic and commercial crude oil reserves in the US [3][4]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s expansion cycle, the oil price is expected to trade in the range of 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel for SC [5]. LPG - **Market Situation**: On May 28, the PG main contract closed at 4090 yuan/ton, up 0.27% month - on - month. The warehouse receipt pressure has been released, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to increase. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly [6][7]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG valuation is high, so the long - term trend is expected to be weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and sell put options. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [8]. L - **Market Situation**: The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [10]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][11]. PP - **Market Situation**: The macro - policy sentiment has weakened, and the demand is weak. Although the inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and a new production peak is coming from May to July. The export is weak due to rising freight [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [14]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. The basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipts have increased [16]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. PX - **Market Situation**: PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread is high, and it is currently fluctuating with the cost [17][18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [18]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee has recovered [19][20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [20]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Situation**: The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall [21][22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [23]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high, especially in the upstream and mid - stream. The downstream mainly purchases on a just - in - time basis [25][26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [26]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The new production capacity is put into operation, and although the supply has decreased due to enterprise maintenance, it is still in a state of oversupply. The terminal demand support is weak, and the inventory is at a high level [27][28]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: The supply is increasing overall with regional differences. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The profit of some chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong has declined [30][31]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be weakly stable, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [31]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, and the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation [2]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly [2]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price [2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2].
中辉期货:螺纹钢早报-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:42
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量环比虽有下降,但绝对水平仍然偏高。卷板等钢材需求绝对水平 | | | | 虽然不错,但建筑钢材马上进入淡季,在钢厂利润持续较好背景下,后期 | | 螺纹钢 | 低位震荡 | 供需面临转向宽松的格局。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力,成本存在持 | | | | 续下降的可能。短期在 3000 附近或存在一定支撑,但中期延续偏弱趋势。 | | | | 【2930,2970】 | | | 低位震荡 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡,库存去化良好。出口仍在高位,暂时未受到明显 | | | | 影响。但黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现,随着铁水产量见顶, | | 热卷 | | 成本端面临进一步的宽松压力。短期下行后或进入震荡整理,但中期趋势 | | | | 仍然偏弱。【3060,3100】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发货降到货增,港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性,山东 | | | | 粗钢调控政策传言再起,短期盘面 ...
中辉有色观点-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:42
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落,影响黄金的短期节奏,但是关税问题远没有解决,俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变, | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码,尚在秩序重塑途中,战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面,全球经济需求较去年或有下降,供给量变化不大,尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响,但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大,黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随,价格没有摆脱此前区间,操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近,市场避险情绪回升,铜承压回落,关注下方整数关口支撑,空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000,78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退,随着端午长假临近,市场避险情绪回升,建议暂 | | | | 时观望,长期看,锌供增需弱,把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...
中辉农产品观点-20250528
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:12
豆粕:美贸易关税风波利多市场情绪 延续反弹 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2966 | 2950 | 16 | 0. 54% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3005. 14 | 3008 | -2.86 | -0. 10% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2940 | 2880 | 60 | 2. 08% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3287.5 | -50 | -1.52% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2197.5 | 2206. 25 | -8. 75 | -0. 40% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3875 | 3875 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1383. 3 ...
中辉有色观点-20250528
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:03
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美欧关税豁免延期,黄金调整,但是关税问题远没有解决,俄乌战火激烈,中 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变,长期看 黄金是未来秩序筹码,尚在秩序重塑途中,战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | | | 逻辑不变,全球经济需求较 2024 年或有下降,尽管各国财政关税对冲关税带来 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 的负面影响,但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大,黄金波动刺激跟随,价格没有 | | | | 摆脱此前区间,操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 短期铜关注上方 7 万 9 关口压力位,多单谨慎持有。随着端午三天假期临近,市场 避险情绪回升,警惕铜再次高位回落,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000, | | | | 79500】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退,随着端午长假临近,市场避险情绪回升,建议暂 时观望,长期看,锌供增需弱,把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【222 ...
中辉期货日刊-20250528
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:03
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 旺季预期 VS OPEC+增产,油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产,原油远月压力较大,夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来,近月下方存支撑,关注 OPEC+本周三以及周六会议内容。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 仓单压力释放,下游开工预计回升,液化气企稳。成本端油价震荡偏弱;仓单出现回落, | | | | 近期仓单连续上涨压力下降;丙烷进口成本下降,PDH 开工率有上升预期。PG【4080-4120】 | | L | 偏弱 | 基差走强,近期停车比例增加,供给压力阶段性缓解;但农膜需求淡季,出口影响不大, | | | | 社库窄幅增加,反弹偏空。L【6950-7050】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季,基差走弱,5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期,基本面供需格局偏弱,向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位,反弹偏空。PP【6800-6930】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 电石继续降价,仓单由增转降。成本坍塌+装置投产预期+出口尚存不确定性,基本面预 | | | | 期 ...
中辉能化观点-20250527
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:18
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 旺季预期 VS OPEC+增产,油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产,原油远月压力较大,夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来,近月下方存支撑,关注 OPEC+本周三以及周六会议内容。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | | 仓单压制盘面,液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升,盘面受到压制;上游原油 | | | 偏弱 | 低位盘整;下游利润不佳,但对美关税下降后,进口成本下降,开工率有上升预期。PG | | | | 【4055-4095】 | | L | 偏弱 | 近期停车比例增加,供给压力阶段性缓解;但农膜需求淡季,抢出口可持续性不强,社 | | | | 库窄幅增加,基差走弱,反弹偏空。L【7000-7100】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季,基差走弱,5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期,基本面供需格局偏弱,向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位,反弹偏空。PP【6800-6920】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 电石降价,6 月台塑报价上调 20 美元/吨。成本坍塌+装置投产预期+出 ...
中辉期货农产品观点-20250527
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:15
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定,美豆种植开启,进度远高于去年及五年均值,且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作,按照 CPC 月度展望来看,6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面,国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库,随着开机率上升,豆粕供应将逐步缓解,逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低,存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上,供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕,但由于 23%的关税依然存在,美豆暂无性价比,对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟,减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪,但实际减产预计有限。受阿根廷暴雨及美政府对欧盟贸易风波影响,豆粕近日 | | | | 反弹,但美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库,整体基本面偏空,看多暂以技术性反弹 | | | | 对待,也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。主力【2920,2970】 | | 菜粕 | ...
中辉有色观点-20250527
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and rise. The main drivers for the long - term bull market are the change in international order and the strategic allocation value is high. The price range is [766 - 787] [1]. - Silver is likely to have range - bound oscillations. The global economic demand may decline in 2025, and it is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8200 - 8390] [1]. - Copper is predicted to rebound. In the short - term, it should pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. In the long - term, it remains optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500] [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short - term, the rebound space may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it has an oversupply situation. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000] [1]. - Lead is under pressure. The supply is expected to tighten slightly, but the downstream procurement is cautious, so the price rebound is under pressure. The price range is [16300 - 17000] [1]. - Tin is predicted to rebound. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The price range is [263000 - 269000] [1]. - Aluminum is facing pressure in its rebound. The alumina price is falling, and the downstream demand is differentiating. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weakening. The price range is [120000 - 125000] [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook. The supply and demand surplus concern remains. The price range is [7500 - 7780] [1]. - Lithium carbonate is bearish. The supply surplus situation has not been reversed. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - The progress of the US - EU negotiation is repeated, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue, providing support for gold [2]. Basic Logic - The US extended the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9, boosting market confidence. Japan's inflation has rebounded, and the UK's retail sales have increased significantly. The cease - fire in the Middle East is uncertain. The long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies will support gold [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and control the position for long - term investment. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the short - term [8200, 8390] [4]. Copper Market Review - Overnight, copper opened lower and then rose, with an oscillatory recovery [6]. Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is - 44.25 dollars/ton. The uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy is reducing copper inventories outside the US. The demand for green copper in power, automotive, and home appliance sectors is strong, offsetting the weak demand in traditional sectors [6]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, copper is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. Long positions should be held cautiously. In the long - term, it is optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc Market Review - Zinc rose by more than 2% overnight [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose. Recently, the unexpected extended maintenance of a smelter in South China and the maintenance of a mine in the Southwest have worried the market about supply disruptions. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc rebounds due to mine and smelter maintenance, but the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, short positions can be taken on rebounds. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and the alumina price is falling [10]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand is differentiating. The supply of bauxite is high, and the alumina supply surplus situation continues [11]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The price range for the main contract is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is operating in a low - level range [11]. Nickel Market Review - The nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [12]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - environment has eased. The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the price cut in Indonesia have weakened the cost support. The domestic refined nickel production is increasing, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still exists [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The price range for the main nickel contract is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2507 opened lower and fell, breaking through the 60,000 mark [14]. Industrial Logic - The supply surplus situation continues. The upstream smelter has high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [15]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold short positions. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [15].