| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 螺纹需求增加明显，已接近去年同期。产量小幅回落，库存去化较好，供 | | | | 需层面有所改善。但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体供需或存在趋于宽 | | | | 松的压力。市场对政策仍有期待，短期市场低位震荡运行。【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷供需均小幅增加，数据上看暂时无明显矛盾。但贸易摩擦升级以及越 | | | | 南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于宽松的 | | | | 倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，等待驱动指引。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 发到货双增，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改善， | | | | 关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保障。焦炭周产量持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increases is limited, South American soybean production is set, US soybean planting is about to start, domestic soybean stocks are accumulating, and with sufficient rainfall for US soybeans in the next 15 days, there is a lack of fundamental bullish support [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, new - season rapeseeds will be harvested in May, the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased, and it is under pressure to fall due to inventory and supply [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. International palm oil supply and demand both increased in April, with marginal supply improvement. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports. The short - term rebound is due to good export data from Malaysia, but long - term trends need to consider US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil exports [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Pressured and volatile. US macro data slightly benefits the commodity market, some countries show a tendency to purchase under tariff pressure, domestic cotton inventory is high and being reduced, new cotton is being sown, and the downstream demand is cautious, with the price expected to remain weak after a rebound [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The market is in the traditional off - season, fresh fruits are on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not improved significantly, with prices expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Rebound under pressure. The impact of the trade war has faded, the market cost - driven sentiment has slowed, supply is excessive, the consumption end lacks growth momentum, and there is a risk of a callback after the pre - holiday stocking market contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3396.57 yuan/ton, up 45.71 yuan or 1.36% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 400.82 million tons, up 100.07 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 362.24 million tons, up 71.81 million tons week - on - week, and bean粕 inventory was 29.05 million tons, down 28.86 million tons week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2597 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.37% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 34.8 million tons, up 5.5 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 2.07 million tons, down 1.06 million tons week - on - week [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8132 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day. The national average price was 9080 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan or 1.44% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of a certain period, the weekly commercial inventory was 37.11 million tons, down 0.23 million tons from the previous period [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14203 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [10]. - **Planting and Inventory Data**: As of April 13, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 5%. In China, the Xinjiang cotton sowing progress reached 62.3%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 million tons, down 11 million tons from the previous period [11][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous period [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14465 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.13% [16]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly live pig inventory was 3689.1 million tons, up 13.17 million tons month - on - month; the monthly live pig出栏量 was 1087.03 million tons, up 156.55 million tons month - on - month [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 行至阻力位，油价震荡调整。美国公布新一批制裁名单，涉及一家国内地炼企业；近期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 美国豁免中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税战争缓和；OPEC+部分成员国补偿性减产。 | | | | SC【490-510】 | | LPG | | 现货下降，基差仍处高位，液化气盘整。现货企稳，基差下降，但仍处高位；厂内和港 | | | 震荡 | 口库存均下降；下游 PDH 开工下降，烷基化、MTBE 开工上升。PG【4350-4450】 | | L | 震荡 | 装置维持高开工，供给充沛，关注后续进口变动。中长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油 | | | | 下行，反弹偏空。L【7150-7240】 | | PP | 震荡 | 供需双弱，反制裁加剧 PDH 供给收缩预期，短期供给依旧充沛。中长期，装置投产压力 | | | | 偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7080-7180】 | | PVC | 3 震荡 | 月出口维持高增速，电石继续跌价，盘面升水结构，仓单持续注册。关注春检力度及宏 | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期黄金强势逻辑继续。G2 大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下台， | | 黄金 | 强势 | 流动性宽松或成主流。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持续，各经济体购 | | | | 金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【760-800】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，尽管中国和欧洲刺激预期 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 较大，但是关税谈判以及短期需警惕流动性危机。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本 | | | | 金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普称 1 个月内将和中国就关税达成协议，下周国内 LPR 降息预期回升，市场 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 情绪回暖，短期铜背靠下方均线，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关 | | | | 注区间【74500，77500】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌震荡偏弱，空单可部分逢低止盈兑现，中 | | | | 长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | | 转弱，昨日豆粕延续小幅收跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面，由于短期国内边际供应 | | | | 预计逐步增加，且国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨充沛，在缺乏基本面利多支持下， | | | | 豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行为主。主力【3045，2980】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上，受短期库存及供应压力影响，菜粕短期承压下跌，偏空对待。主力 | | | | 【2530,2630】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反弹整理 | 4 月国际棕 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong [1] - Silver: Wide - range adjustment [1] - Copper: Rebound [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Lithium carbonate: Weak [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term adjustments do not change the strong logic of gold, and it has long - term strategic allocation value; silver is in a wide - range adjustment and should be treated with an interval trading approach; copper is in a rebound, and the long - term outlook is optimistic; zinc rebounds under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weak in the long - term; lead rebounds slightly; tin rises and then falls; aluminum rebounds slightly; nickel continues to rebound; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are in a weak state [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold rose 0.97% to 789.22, COMEX gold fell 0.49% to 3341; SHFE silver fell 0.87% to 8161, COMEX silver rose 0.29% to 33. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio rose 1.87% to 96.71, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.78% to 101.70 [2] - **Basic Logic**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points; US economic data declined, such as a 11.4% drop in new housing starts in March and a - 26.4 reading in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April. Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut. Conflicts in tariff games are the main trend, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. Short - term liquidity shocks persist, and long - term international conflicts support the gold price [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, short - term trading is active, and the long - term logic remains unchanged. Control positions when chasing short - term long positions and maintain a long - term long - allocation mindset. For silver, it is in an oscillating range of [8000, 8500], so use an oscillating trading approach [4] Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper fell 0.49% to 9158 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.3% to 76070 yuan/ton. Copper inventories decreased, and the spot price increased slightly [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, but it has not yet affected the electrolytic copper end. In March, domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade disputes, terminal consumption was suppressed, but downstream enterprises actively bought on dips, leading to a decrease in domestic inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. It is recommended to go long on copper with a light position near the lower moving average and set a stop - loss. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and the outlook for copper is still positive. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [75000, 77000], and LME copper focuses on [8800, 9500] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Information**: LME zinc fell 0.04% to 2581 US dollars/ton, and SHFE zinc rose 0.23% to 22015 yuan/ton. Zinc inventories decreased, and the spot price decreased slightly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates are positive. Many zinc smelters increased production in April - May. After the zinc price dropped, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory on dips, but the export demand is expected to weaken due to anti - dumping tariffs from Brazil and Vietnam [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Zinc has rebounded from an oversold condition, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, supply exceeds demand, so look for opportunities to go short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [21500, 22500], and LME zinc focuses on [2550, 2750] US dollars/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, while alumina was under pressure. The LME aluminum price fell 0.15% to 2385 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum price rose 0.51% to 19645 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, US tariffs have affected the market, but domestic inventories have decreased, and the downstream processing industry's overall operating rate has increased. For alumina, some plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventories have risen [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum in the short - term, focusing on the depletion of aluminum ingots. The main operating range is [19200 - 20200]. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [10] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then fell. The LME nickel price rose 0.96% to 15745 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE nickel price rose 1.65% to 126190 yuan/ton. Nickel inventories increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased [11] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas tariff policies have affected the market. In the nickel industry, there are policy disputes in Indonesia, and the production and release of nickel ore are under - expected. Some smelters' raw material inventories are low, and domestic refined nickel inventories have decreased slightly. In the stainless steel industry, inventory depletion has encountered resistance, and exports are blocked, with an oversupply situation persisting [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, focusing on downstream consumption in the peak season. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 129000] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2505 opened slightly lower and was weak throughout the day. The prices of lithium - related products were mostly stable, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract has accelerated its decline. During the peak season, the total lithium carbonate inventory has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, indicating that supply growth exceeds demand growth. Sino - US trade frictions and market recession expectations may drag down overseas demand. The ore price still has room to fall, and it is difficult for the lithium carbonate price to get support in the short - term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The price range is [68000, 72000] [14]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 螺纹需求增加明显，已接近去年同期。产量小幅回落，库存去化较好，供 | | | | 需层面有所改善。但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体供需或存在趋于宽 | | | | 松的压力。市场对政策仍有期待，短期市场低位震荡运行。【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷供需均小幅增加，数据上看暂时无明显矛盾。但贸易摩擦升级以及越 | | | | 南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于宽松的 | | | | 倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，等待驱动指引。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 发到货双增，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改善， | | | | 关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保障。焦炭周产量持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound due to new sanctions on Iran, compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members, and easing of the tariff war [1][2][3] - LPG is expected to rebound as the cost side provides support and the basis is at a high level [1][5][7] - L is expected to be weak as the device maintains high operation, upstream inventory accumulates, and there is pressure from new device production [1][9][11] - PP is expected to be weak with short - term abundant supply and long - term pressure from device production and falling crude oil prices [1][12][14] - PVC is expected to be weak as the falling cost of calcium carbide outweighs the decline in social inventory [1][15][17] - PX is expected to be weak as the improvement in supply - demand is limited and inventory is high [1][18][19] - PTA is expected to be weak with supply pressure relieved by planned maintenance but weakening downstream demand and high inventory [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term shock adjustment as supply is reduced by planned maintenance and import decline, while demand may weaken [1][24] - Bottle chips are expected to be weak with increased supply, seasonal weak demand but good export prospects and rising inventory [1][25][26] - Glass is expected to be weak as it enters the delivery game period with increased delivery capacity and limited terminal demand improvement [1][27][28] - Soda ash is expected to be weak with increasing supply, stable demand, and accumulating inventory [1][29][30] - Asphalt is expected to rebound as the crack spread is high and the cost side (crude oil) rebounds [1] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 3.53%, Brent up 1.86%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members drive short - term price rebound, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars due to the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion. In the short - term, sell bull spread options, and focus on the range of 490 - 510 yuan for SC [4] LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 17, the PG main contract closed at 4480 yuan/ton, up 1.24% [6] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has converged but remains high, and the overall valuation is low. After the oil price rebounds, there is upward momentum [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long, or buy call options or sell put options, and focus on the range of 4450 - 4550 yuan [8] L - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import situation varies. The agricultural film season is ending, resulting in weak short - term performance and long - term bearishness [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7100 - 7200 yuan [11] PP - **Market Performance**: The L - PP05 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread decreased by 38 yuan/ton [13] - **Basic Logic**: New PP devices have been put into operation, and there is pressure on product exports. Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term prospects are bearish [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan [14] PVC - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: New devices were put into operation in January. Although demand has a seasonal recovery, the falling cost of calcium carbide leads to short - term weakness [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and focus on the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan [17] PX - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 6865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6054 yuan/ton (- 50) [18] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 6000 - 6120 yuan [20] PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4310 yuan/ton (+ 80), and the TA05 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton (+ 8) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Planned maintenance eases supply pressure, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4250 - 4330 yuan [23] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4315 yuan/ton (- 15), and the EG05 contract closed at 4279 yuan/ton (+ 8) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low, but downstream demand may weaken. Cost support is limited [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4080 - 4130 yuan [24] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade PET bottle chips in East China was 5600 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the PR main contract closed at 5596 yuan/ton (+ 248) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Device operation increases supply. Although it is the off - season for soft drinks, export is good, and inventory has increased [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 5520 - 5600 yuan [26] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price in North China increased, the futures price was weak, the main basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27] - **Basic Logic**: The real - estate downturn still affects demand. Supply is low, demand has a seasonal recovery, and inventory has decreased. The delivery game suppresses the near - month contract [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 1130 - 1170 yuan [28] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was partially reduced, the futures price was weakly volatile, the basis fluctuated slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30] - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment. Supply increases due to device operation and new capacity, demand is stable, and inventory accumulates [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average [30] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not detailed in the content - **Basic Logic**: The crack spread is high, the cost side (crude oil) rebounds but lacks upward momentum, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 反弹 | 美国新增一轮对伊朗制裁，油价反弹。近期美国豁免中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税 | | | | 战争缓和；EIA、OPEC、IEA 最新月报均下调 25 年原油需求增速。SC【465-480】 | | LPG | 反弹 | 油价反弹，基差处于高位，液化气反弹。现货企稳，基差下降，但仍处高位，估值偏低； | | | | 供需面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4450-4550】 | | L | 偏弱 | 上游继续累库，期现齐跌，基差走强，进口存缩量预期，停车比例偏低，震荡偏弱。中 | | | | 长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。L【7100-7200】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 油煤利润修复，反制裁加剧 PDH 供给收缩预期，油制开工积极性提高，商业总库存去化。 | | | | 中长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7050-7200】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 电石跌价，动态成本下移，春检陆续启动，盘面升水结构，仓单持续注册，低位震荡。 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | 短线下跌 | 转弱，昨日豆粕期价下跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面，由于短期边际供应增加，美 | | | | 豆近期种植天气展望尚可，在缺乏基本面利多支持下，豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行握住。 | | | | 主力【3070，2930】 | | | | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差回归后，菜粕替代优势再度显现。盘面上，菜粕 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 高位震荡趋弱，警惕中美贸易加征关税事件影响降温下，逐步回归基本面的偏弱运 | | | | 行。主力【2540,2660】 | | | 4 | 月国际棕榈油供需双增，价格波动缺乏明显趋向，但边际供应的改善以及持 ...