Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term and has high strategic allocation value in the long - term due to international order changes [1]. - Silver will have a range - bound oscillation, with its price influenced by gold and basic metals [1]. - Copper will have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, and long - term prospects are positive [1]. - Zinc is expected to decline, with supply increasing and demand weakening in the long run [1]. - Lead price will face pressure due to inventory accumulation in the off - season [1]. - Tin price will rebound and then fall as overseas supply recovers and domestic inventory accumulates [1]. - Aluminum price will face pressure in its rebound due to disturbances in the overseas bauxite end and weak downstream demand [1]. - Nickel price will face pressure as the supply of nickel ore increases and downstream inventory pressure remains [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to oversupply concerns [1]. - Lithium carbonate should be sold on rebounds as supply remains sufficient and demand is expected to be weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold rose as Trump's tax - cut bill faced obstacles and concerns about the US deficit increased [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The US tax - cut bill faced opposition, China's central bank bought a large amount of gold, and the long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and loose fiscal and monetary policies supported gold. Silver is sensitive to financial and commodity attributes and is affected by gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, go long on the gold market and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will continue to have a range - bound oscillation in the range of [8130, 8350] [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper rebounded under pressure and oscillated within a range [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight, smelting maintenance increased, and the uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy was draining copper inventories outside the US. High copper prices inhibited demand, but green copper demand in power, automotive, and home appliances offset the weakness in traditional copper demand [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, the balance of power between bulls and bears is stalemate, and copper will oscillate narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold long - term positions cautiously. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77000, 78500], and for London copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure in the short - term and oscillated weakly [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc ore will be loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot production increased in April and is expected to remain high in May. Downstream demand weakened, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season for consumption begins, zinc's upside is limited. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600], and for London zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounded slightly, and alumina showed a rebound trend [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eased, inventory increased slightly, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply was high, domestic enterprises had maintenance and production cuts, and the supply surplus continued [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate stably [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel also faced pressure [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eased. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increased, and the cost support weakened. Domestic refined nickel production increased, and inventory remained high. The inventory pressure of stainless steel decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still existed [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 opened high and moved high, with a reduction in positions and a rebound [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. The price of raw materials continues to fall, supply remains sufficient, demand is about to enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the range of [60800 - 62500] [15].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3085 | 2 | 热卷01 | 3223 | 8 | | 螺纹05 | 3101 | 6 | 热卷05 | 3237 | 12 | | 螺纹10 | 3061 | 3 | 热卷10 | 3211 | d | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2930 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2130 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3180 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3200 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3280 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3200 | 0 | 热卷:杭州 | 3280 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3360 | 0 | 热卷： 广州 | 3350 | 0 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3290 | -10 | 热卷:成都 | 3460 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 螺纹01:上海 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 地缘消息扰动，油价反弹，但供给过剩，反弹空间有限。消息称以色列准备袭击伊朗核 | | | | 设施；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产，油价上方空 | | | | 间有限。SC【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油反弹，但供需基本面偏空，下游利润不佳， | | | | PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库，仓单量不断上升。PG【4220-4250】 | | L | 4 偏弱 | 月进口量同环比均超 10%，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；4 月制品端出口受关税负反 | | | | 馈影响显著，短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑，内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 5 偏弱 | 月下旬装置计划检修偏少叠加月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基本面供 | | | | 需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 4 偏弱 | 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，现货成交 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌谈判再次失败，国内央行大举进口黄金，黄金价格短期快速走高。本轮大 | | | 震荡冲高 | 牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变，长期看，黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑 | | | | 途中，战略配置价值高。【755-780】 | | 白银 | 区间调整 | 逻辑不变，国内弱现实，各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，品种特性上， 白银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金大涨刺 | | | | 激白银重心上移，不过操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8130-8350】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 海外地缘风险激增，美元指数回落，COMEX 铜持续抽干全球铜库存，短期铜震荡 回升，警惕高铜价对需求抑制作用逐渐显现，建议多单逐渐高位止盈，中长期依旧 | | | | 看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 宏观和板块积极带动锌止跌反弹，但消费淡季开启，锌上方空间有限，建议前 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 期空单继续持有，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕前日探低回升，但短期空头格局依然占据主导， | | | | 基本面偏空，看多仅以技术性反弹对待。主力【2860，2925】 | | 菜粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调减，5 月至 7 月菜籽进口同 | | | | 比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 | | | | 望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着 | | | | 开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在 | | | | 补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上， | | | | 供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆 | | | | 暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕近日窄幅 | | | | 整理，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，市场在等待新指引。主力【2865，2930】 | | | 短期偏空震荡 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调减，5 月至 7 月菜籽进口同 | | | | 比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供应展望压力减轻。 | | 菜粕 | | 近日菜粕小幅反弹，但短期空头 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡偏弱 | 目前高炉螺纹利润较热卷更好，而且钢厂整体利润水平较高，生产积极性 | | | | 较强，铁水产量持续高位运行。而需求后期将进入季节性淡季，供需趋于 | | | | 宽松，供需矛盾存在激化风险。当前库存去化速度尚佳，短期或呈震荡格 | | | | 局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。【3020，3080】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅下降，需求有所回升，库存继续去化，绝对水 | | | | 平并不高。出口仍在高位，暂时并未受到明显影响。供需层面相对平衡， | | | | 但黑色产业链整体氛围偏弱，短期或呈震荡走势。【3170，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发货增到货降，近端铁矿供需结构中性略偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | | | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边逢 | | | | 高布空，跨期正套持有【710,740】 | | 焦炭 | 偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - LPG: Oscillating [1] - L: Oscillating [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with views ranging from bullish, bearish, to oscillating, based on various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost - profit situations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.27%, Brent up 0.20%, and SC up 0.07% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors and macro - economic factors are in a tug - of - war. Supply is affected by Russian export policies and global supply forecasts, while demand has stable growth. Inventory data shows changes in US commercial and strategic reserves [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to factors like trade wars and OPEC+ expansion. Short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, oscillating. SC to focus on [455 - 475] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 19, the PG main contract closed at 4264 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices rebounded, but LPG fundamentals are bearish. Import costs decreased, downstream PDH开工率 declined, and port inventories increased. As of May 19, the number of warehouse receipts increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, it is bearish as it is linked to upstream crude oil. Technically, pay attention to the strong support at 4200, and it will oscillate weakly. Hold short positions. PG to focus on [4240 - 4275] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the cost support from crude oil may weaken. Supply pressure remains due to high social inventories despite upcoming device maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, but export orders may improve. In May, device maintenance and short - term export replenishment will lead to oscillating prices, while the high - production cycle will limit upward space in the medium term [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Policy support exists, but the market is constrained by supply - demand imbalance. In May, there are fewer device maintenance plans and new device launches, and demand is in the off - season. The market will be weakly sorted [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Supply is expected to remain high, demand is in the off - season, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade policies. Warehouse receipts increased, real - estate data is weak, and device restarts may increase production. The market will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Be aware of macro - systemic risks [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton (-18) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance plans have reduced supply pressure. However, PTA device maintenance has weakened demand. Although inventory is high, the fundamentals improved in May, and it will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX to focus on [6660, 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton (-24) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance has reduced supply pressure. Downstream polyester has high operating loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has room to increase. It will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy mentioned other than the price range [21]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton (-3), and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton (-1) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, reducing supply pressure. The expected arrival volume is low. Downstream polyester has high loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased slightly. It will oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG to focus on [4410, 4500] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price decreased, the decline of the futures price slowed, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: After the central bank's "double - cut" and the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, the real - estate fundamentals weakened in April. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply contraction and demand decline. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is weak. In the short term, it will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and in the medium term, weak fundamentals will limit upward space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG to focus on [1000, 1040] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged, the futures price oscillated weakly, the main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but new capacity expectations will lead to an oversupply situation. Demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. Although some enterprises' export orders increased, the high - inventory and low - demand situation will continue to suppress the market [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA to focus on [1260, 1290] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton (-50), and the main contract 09 closed at 2284 yuan/ton (-36). The basis in East China and ports changed [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as device maintenance is ending and import expectations are being fulfilled. Demand has improved as MTO device开工率 has stopped falling. Social inventory has decreased, but cost support from coal is weak. Overall, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is bearish on rebounds [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA to focus on [2250, 2300] [34]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as maintenance devices are restarting. It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, but industrial demand is neutral, and export growth is fast. Cost fluctuates slightly, and there is bottom support. The export policy is bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to the export quota policy and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle. UR to focus on [1830 - 1880] [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and both supply and demand increased. Bullish factors include rising oil prices, falling social inventory, and increasing开工率 of modified and building asphalt. Bearish factors are high cracking spreads and increasing supply. It will oscillate strongly [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: BU to focus on [3520 - 3565] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Long - term strategic allocation value is high due to international order changes. Silver will have range adjustments. Copper: long - term optimism remains, but short - term recommends taking profits on long positions. Zinc: suggests holding short positions as supply increases and demand weakens. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices are under pressure. Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish [1]. - Gold prices may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. After the adjustment, there is a long - term upward trend. Silver may continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. - Copper rebounds in the short term, and long - term prospects are positive. Zinc is in a bearish situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure. Nickel and stainless steel are recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Lithium carbonate's fundamentals are bearish [7][10][14][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillations [1]. - **Main Logic**: Tariff negotiation setbacks, US bank downgrades, and progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations. The long - term driver is international order change. Attention should be paid to the support around 740 - 750. The price range is [744 - 767] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE gold is at 755.86 (up 0.54% from the previous value and down 2.13% week - on - week), COMEX gold is at 3231 (up 0.80% from the previous value and down 0.34% week - on - week). Gold ETFs are at 921.03 tons (down 21.09 tons week - on - week), and gold COMEX net long positions are at 161209 (down 1288 from the previous value and down 2109 week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long - term entry [3]. Silver - **Core View**: Range adjustments [1]. - **Main Logic**: Doubts about PV demand in April data in China and the impact of national fiscal tariffs. It is sensitive to financial and commodity attributes and is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8000 - 8200] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE silver is at 8133 (up 0.40% from the previous value and down 1.20% week - on - week), COMEX silver is at 33 (up 0.25% from the previous value and down 0.87% week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: May continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] in the short term [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Take profits on long positions in the short term, long - term optimism [1]. - **Main Logic**: US economic data shows resilience, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation declines, and the strong dollar suppresses copper prices. High copper prices inhibit demand. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories. Long - term, global copper mines are in short supply. The SHFE copper price range is [77800, 78800] [1][7]. - **Market Data**: SHFE copper closes at 78160 (up 0.54% from the previous day), LME copper is at 9516 (up 0.73% from the previous day). Social inventory is 13.92 million tons [6]. - **Strategy**: Take partial profits on long positions at high levels in the short term. Long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend. SHFE copper focuses on the range [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Main Logic**: The zinc ore supply is loosening in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot production is high, and downstream demand is weak. The SHFE zinc price range is [22000, 22600] [1][9]. - **Market Data**: SHFE zinc closes at 22405 (down 0.27% from the previous day), LME zinc is at 2672.5 (down 0.50% from the previous day). SMM seven - region social inventory is 8.38 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions. Long - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. SHFE zinc focuses on [22000, 22600], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Price rebounds are under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply in Guinea is disrupted, alumina prices rise, and downstream aluminum processing enterprise operations decline. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME aluminum closes at 2473 (down 0.46% from the previous value), SHFE aluminum closes at 20110 (down 0.10% from the previous value). SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 58.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Price is under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: News of a mining ban in the Philippines and an increase in nickel ore royalties in Indonesia support the cost. However, domestic refined nickel production increases, and stainless - steel inventory pressure remains. The price range is [121000 - 126000] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME nickel closes at 15605 (down 1.27% from the previous value), SHFE nickel closes at 123850 (down 0.17% from the previous value). SMM pure nickel social inventory is 44151 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range is [120000 - 129000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish [1]. - **Main Logic**: Supply remains sufficient as there is no large - scale production cut. Demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is lowering demand expectations. The price range is [60000 - 62500] [1][16]. - **Market Data**: The main contract LC2507 is at 61180 (down 1.00% from the previous value). Weekly production is 15843 tons (down 1.28% from the previous week), and weekly inventory is 131920 tons (up 0.27% from the previous week) [15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [16].