1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着 | | | | 开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在 | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上， | | | | 供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆 | | | | 暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕近日窄幅 | | | | 整理，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，市场在等待新指引。主力【2865，2930】 | | | | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽库存环比调减，菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月 | | | | 至 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 应展望压力减轻。近日菜粕小幅反弹，但短期空头格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Neutral [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Neutral [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is in a consolidation phase due to the balance between geopolitical easing and macro - economic improvement, with OPEC+ expansion capping the upside [1][2][3]. - LPG is in an oscillatory adjustment due to the rebound in crude oil cost and weak downstream demand [1][7]. - L is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with the high - production cycle suppressing the rebound space in the medium - term [1][11]. - PP has a weak supply - demand pattern in the fundamentals, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][14]. - PVC is in a low - level oscillation, with high -开工 and weak domestic demand limiting the rebound height [1][17]. - PX is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the fundamentals continue to improve in May [1][19]. - PTA is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved, high downstream polyester load, and inventory reduction [1][22]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved and demand relatively strong [1][25]. - Glass is oscillating around macro - economic sentiment, with a weak spot market suppressing the rebound space [1][29]. - Soda ash is in a low - level oscillation, facing high inventory and low demand, but with some support from supply reduction [1][32]. - Methanol has a relatively loose supply - demand situation and weak cost support, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][34]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with limited upside potential due to export policies and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle [1]. - Asphalt is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with the rebound in oil price and increased demand, but with high valuation and sufficient supply [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: On Friday, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded, with WTI rising 1.34%, Brent rising 1.41%, and SC falling 2.25% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent oil price trend is mainly affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Geopolitical factors are bearish, while macro - economic factors are bullish. Supply may slow down due to the current price drop, and demand growth is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and strategic reserves, and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, with a focus on the range of [455 - 475] for SC [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,280 yuan/ton, down 0.49% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **基本逻辑**: The upstream oil price rebounded in the short - term, but the LPG's own fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost decreased, the downstream PDH device operating rate declined, and the port inventory continued to rise [7]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is mainly anchored to the upstream crude oil, with a bearish outlook. Technically, pay attention to the strong support level of 4,200, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and weak. Short positions can be held. Focus on the range of [4,240 - 4,285] for PG [8]. L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **基本逻辑**: In the short - term, the maintenance loss in May reached a three - year high, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved. However, it is in the traditional demand off - season, and the replenishment intensity is expected to slow down after the phased replenishment. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle suppresses the rebound space [11]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and focus on the range of [7,200 - 7,350] for L [11]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **基本逻辑**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. With the weakening of the short - term positive impact of tariff policies, the market sentiment is still bearish, especially with the arrival of the traditional plastic off - season. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term [14]. - **策略推荐**: The outlook on rebounds is bearish. Focus on the range of [7,080 - 7,155] for PP [14]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: Next week, domestic maintenance will continue, and supply will increase slightly. Domestic demand is stable, but foreign trade orders and demand atmosphere are expected to weaken, and the inventory reduction speed will slow down. The price is expected to be stable, and the policy expectation may weaken [17]. - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of [4,950 - 5,050] for V [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,625 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract oscillated to close at 6,744 (- 18) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 (+ 18) yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply pressure is relieved. The processing difference has improved, but it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand side is weak due to the large number of PTA device maintenance. The inventory is high compared to the same period of last year but is at a high level in the past five years [19]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [6,750 - 6,880] for PX [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA price in East China was 4,995 (- 35) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,774 (- 24) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 (- 11) yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: The PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory has decreased, and the processing fee is neutral with room for improvement [22]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,770 - 4,860] for TA [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,568 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,460 (- 1) yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 (- 2) yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent device maintenance and load reduction have increased, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. The arrival volume is low compared to the same period. The demand side is relatively good, with high downstream polyester load and the terminal weaving operating rate stopping falling and rebounding. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is in a downward trend [25]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,460 - 4,560] for EG [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation decreased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: At the macro level, the macro - economic pressure has eased, and the market risk preference and commodity sentiment have recovered. However, the main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. The downstream demand is insufficient, and the inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream. With the arrival of the rainy season off - season, the spot market is weak [29]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [1,000 - 1,040] for FG [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [31]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply of soda ash has decreased, which provides some support for the futures price. However, the new capacity release expectation is strong, and the demand is still weak. The current inventory level is still at an absolute high, and the cost center has moved down, which suppresses the futures price [32]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to whether there are new drivers after the futures market fully prices in the supply decline. If there is a short - term rebound, it will provide a better opportunity for short - selling. Focus on the range of [1,280 - 1,310] for SA [32]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,375 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,284 (- 36) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 (+ 17) yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 (- 14) yuan/ton [33]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply pressure of methanol is large, with high device operating rates and expected increases in imports. The demand has improved, with the MTO device operating rate stopping falling. The social inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [34]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [2,260 - 2,310] for MA [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: Demand is unlikely to improve, with short - term weak and volatile trends. For rebar, the mid - term outlook is weak; for hot - rolled coils, the short - term trend is volatile [3][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the ore price will face pressure in the later stage. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads [7][8][9]. - **Coke**: There is still an expectation of price cuts, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [10][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply pressure persists, and the weak trend continues [13][14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, pay attention to the start - up in low - cost areas, with wide - range volatility expected; for ferrosilicon, the price is expected to move within a narrow range [16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The profit of blast - furnace rebar is better than that of hot - rolled coils, and the overall profit of steel mills is high, with high - level hot - metal production. Demand will enter the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify. The short - term trend is volatile, and the mid - term outlook is weak. The price range is [3050, 3110] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: rebar 01 is 3107 (-43), rebar 05 is 3126 (+51), rebar 10 is 3082 (-36); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has recovered, inventory continues to decline, and exports are still high. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, but the overall atmosphere in the black industry chain is weak, with a short - term volatile trend. The price range is [3190, 3250] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: hot - rolled coil 01 is 3238 (-34), hot - rolled coil 05 is 3255 (-10), hot - rolled coil 10 is 3226 (-34); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: Short at high prices. The demand for iron ore will remain high supported by steel - enterprise profits, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the contradiction between high hot - metal production and weak terminal demand is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads. The price range is [710, 740] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: iron ore 01 is 692 (-7), iron ore 05 is 794 (-8), iron ore 09 is 728 (-9); spot prices of different iron ore powders have declined [6]. Coke - **Core View**: Weak. Hot - metal production is at a high level but may peak. Steel mills are cautious in coke procurement, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply is loose, and it will maintain a weak operation. The price range is [1415, 1455] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have declined [10]. Coking Coal - **Core View**: Weak. Domestic mine production is normal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The supply pressure persists, and the supply - demand is loosely balanced, with a downward trend. The price range is [835, 865] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have declined; spot prices in different regions have different changes [13]. Ferromanganese - **Core View**: Wide - range volatility. The production reduction range in production areas is expanding, but the reduction in low - cost areas is limited. Pay attention to the start - up in Inner Mongolia. The actual demand may be under pressure, the cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses is not significantly relieved. The price range is [5750, 6000] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have different changes [16]. Ferrosilicon - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a low level, but the inventory is relatively high. The short - term market has a small rebound but lacks upward momentum, with a narrow - range operation. The price range is [5570, 5750] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have increased; spot prices in different regions are stable [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Although sentiment has been boosted, supply and demand remain loose. For rebar, the market may return to fundamental trading, with demand entering the seasonal off - season after this week and supply potentially remaining high due to profit - driven high hot metal production. For hot - rolled coils, supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen, with export at risk of decline [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the iron ore price will face pressure later. Terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the contradiction with high hot metal production is accumulating [7][8]. - **Coke**: Macro - level support is limited, and supply and demand remain weak. Even with high hot - metal production, coking coal and coke are still weak, and they will face greater pressure if hot - metal production peaks [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Although the Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the market may show a short - term shock. The supply is relatively loose, and demand may peak, so it may enter a bottom - consolidation phase after continuous decline [13][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the port inventory of manganese ore is rising, and the start - up situation in low - cost areas needs attention. For ferrosilicon, cost support is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed [16][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Short - term shock, medium - term weakening. Price range: [3080, 3130]. The latest prices of rebar01, rebar05, and rebar10 are 3150, 3075, and 3118 respectively, with changes of - 5, 15, and - 9 [1][2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Short - term shock, medium - term weakening. Price range: [3220, 3270]. The latest prices of hot - rolled01, hot - rolled05, and hot - rolled10 are 3272, 3265, and 3260 respectively, with changes of - 11, 0, and - 7 [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices unilaterally and hold calendar spreads. Price range: [710, 745]. The latest prices of iron ore01, iron ore05, and iron ore09 are 698, 802, and 737 respectively, with changes of - 2, 6, and - 1 [1][6][9]. Coke - **Operation Suggestion**: Shock. Price range: [1430, 1580]. The latest prices of coke1 - month, coke5 - month, and coke9 - month contracts are 1498.5, 1520, and 1472 respectively, with changes of - 9.5, - 67.5, and - 10 [1][10][12]. Coking Coal - **Operation Suggestion**: Shock. Price range: [850, 885]. The latest prices of coking coal1 - month, coking coal5 - month, and coking coal9 - month contracts are 899, 850, and 883 respectively, with changes of - 12, - 0.5, and - 11.5 [1][13][15]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Price range: [5750, 6000]. The latest prices of ferromanganese01, ferromanganese05, and ferromanganese09 are 5926, 5806, and 5876 respectively, with changes of 8, 16, and 12 [1][16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is expected to move within a range. Price range: [5570, 5750]. The latest prices of ferrosilicon01, ferrosilicon05, and ferrosilicon09 are 2630, 5550, and 5580 respectively, with changes of - 22, - 20, and - 22 [1][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety such as weak for crude oil and LPG, oscillating for L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash,回调 for PX, PTA, and asphalt, bullish for ethylene glycol, bearish for methanol, and cautiously bullish for urea [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events (e.g., Iran - US negotiations), supply - demand dynamics, and cost - related factors. Each variety has its own unique fundamentals and price trends [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 3.17%, Brent down 2.36%, and SC down 1.38%. The market is worried about increased Iranian crude supply, causing prices to weaken [2][4] - **Basic Logic**: The Iran - US nuclear negotiations made progress, and geopolitical tensions eased, putting pressure on oil prices. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, and demand growth remains relatively stable. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65. In the short - term, although prices are weak, there is support below. It is recommended to hold bull - spread options. SC should be monitored in the range of [455 - 465] [3] LPG - **Market Situation**: Both futures and spot prices of LPG declined. The main contract PG2506 closed at 4301 yuan/ton, down 1.53% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price weakened due to the Iran - US negotiation news. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost of propane decreased. The downstream PDH device's operating rate declined, and port inventories continued to accumulate [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, its trend is mainly tied to upstream crude oil, which is bearish. Technically, the daily line shows a weak trend. It is recommended to hold short positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4290] [8] L - **Market Situation**: The futures prices of different contracts showed some fluctuations, and the market is trading based on the expectation of export rush [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: It is expected that the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries will increase by 0.30% next week. Some export enterprises' orders have improved. With more planned maintenance of devices in late May and short - term export replenishment support, the market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle restricts the rebound space [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. L should be monitored in the range of [7230 - 7350] [11] PP - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated, and the market is also trading based on the expectation of export rush [12][13] - **Basic Logic**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. As the short - term positive impact of tariff policies weakens, the market sentiment is bearish. The terminal products have an expectation of export rush, but the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take short positions on rebounds. PP should be monitored in the range of [7100 - 7200] [14] PVC - **Market Situation**: The futures price showed a reduction in positions and a rebound, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the commodity atmosphere has improved. Although new production capacity will be put into operation in the second quarter, the short - term price is firm. The operating rate is slightly declining at a high level, the upper - middle stream inventory is decreasing, and the floor export expectation is improving [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in short - term trading. V should be monitored in the range of [4950 - 5050] [17] PX - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China remained flat at 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [18] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. However, the demand side is weak as PTA device maintenance is high. The inventory is still high although it has decreased. The fundamentals will continue to improve in May - June, but it is currently following cost fluctuations and experiencing a short - term correction [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [6710 - 6850] [20] PTA - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, relieving the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate remains high, and the terminal weaving operating rate is rising from a low level. The inventory is decreasing, and the cost side has some support from the recent rebound in international oil prices [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [25][26] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has relieved the supply - side pressure. The arrival volume is low, but imports exceeded expectations in March. The demand side is good as the downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving is improving. The inventory has slightly decreased [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4460 - 4550] [28] Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market报价 was lowered, and the futures price was weakly oscillating with an enlarged basis and reduced warehouse receipts [29][30] - **Basic Logic**: The main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. Although the industry capacity is being cleared, the demand is shrinking faster. The price is close to the coal - based cost line, and further decline is limited, but the recovery depends on policy demand transmission and supply - side cold - repair [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1015 - 1045]. It is advisable to exit short positions and wait and see [31] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The heavy - alkali spot报价 was raised, and the futures price was weakly oscillating with an enlarged basis, reduced warehouse receipts, and unchanged forecasts [33] - **Basic Logic**: Although some devices are under maintenance, the operating rate remains high, and the supply is still in excess. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level, putting pressure on the market [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1310 - 1340]. Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [34] Methanol - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is increasing as previous maintenance devices resume production and overseas imports are expected. The demand side is weak, with MTO device operating rates at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2290 - 2340]. Continue to hold short positions [36] Urea - **Market Situation**: The report does not provide specific market situation data for urea [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is still large as maintenance devices resume production. The agricultural demand is in a gap period, and the industrial demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are growing fast this year. The cost is fluctuating slightly, and there is some bottom - support [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The overall fundamentals are still loose. Although the export policy is favorable in the short - term, the upward space is limited. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1880 - 1920] [1] Asphalt - **Market Situation**: The report does not provide specific market situation data for asphalt [1] - **Basic Logic**: The decline in oil prices has increased the downward pressure on asphalt. There are positive factors such as the decline of social inventory and the increase of the operating rate of road - modified and building asphalt, but negative factors include the decline of oil prices and the high crack spread [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price range for asphalt is [3450 - 3480] [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 | | | | 望来看，5 月美国五大湖地区存在降雨不足的问题，但 6 月展望顺利。国内方面， | | | | 国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入 | | | | 累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。 | | | | 5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕， | | | | 但由于 10%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限，利 | | | | 空远月豆粕价格。美豆种植进入天气炒作阶段，市场做空谨慎，关注后续降雨情况。 | | | | 5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕昨日小幅收涨，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，关注反 | | | | 弹后逢高做空机会。主力【2860，2930】 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and it is recommended to continue the previous interval trading idea [1]. - For copper, it is suggested to take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term, and there is still optimism in the medium - and long - term [1][6]. - Zinc's rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to try short positions lightly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [1][8]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin's price rebound is under pressure as supply and demand situation is not favorable [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure. Short - term long positions at low prices can be considered for Shanghai Aluminum [1][10]. - Nickel's price rebounds and then falls. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel [1][12]. - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation and is in the bottom - building stage in the medium - and long - term [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine negotiations is unclear. Gold prices are in adjustment [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US retail growth slows down, PPI drops significantly, and geopolitical issues persist. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term bull market remains [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may fluctuate after adjustment in the short term, and long - term investors should wait for stability. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8000, 8250] [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai Copper rebounds after being under pressure [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is unstable, and inventory situation is complex. There is a risk of price decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term. Be cautious about high - level decline risk. Long - term outlook is positive. Shanghai Copper focuses on the range of [77500, 79500], and London Copper focuses on [9400, 9800] USD/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc is in a volatile adjustment under upper pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc supply increases while demand weakens as the consumption off - season begins [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly at high levels in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term. Shanghai Zinc focuses on [22300, 22900], and London Zinc focuses on [2680, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure, and alumina rebounds from a low level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, but demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in excess [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices for Shanghai Aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to be stable [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel's price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases, but domestic nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory removal pressure is large [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream consumption. Nickel's main contract operates in the range of [120000, 129000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 rises and then falls, testing the support of the 5 - day moving average [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: Demand is hard to exceed expectations, and lithium price is testing cost support. Supply has no significant reduction, and inventory pressure remains [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation in the range of [63750, 65102] [14].

1. Overall Investment Ratings for Different Varieties - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Rebound [1] - PP: Rebound [1] - PVC: Rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Pullback [1] 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions ease due to progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices. Supply and demand factors, along with inventory changes, also influence the market. Long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, while short - term, holding bullish spread options is recommended [1][4][5]. LPG - Oil price pullbacks and reduced downstream开工率 result in a weak and sideways trend for LPG. The long - term trend is mainly influenced by upstream crude oil, and short - term, holding short positions is advised [1][7][8]. L - There is an expectation of rush exports for terminal plastic products. The market rebounds within a range, but the fundamental pattern is weak, with ample supply limiting the upside [1][11]. PP - Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated. With tariff easing and oil price declines, PDH开工率 is expected to rise. However, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the basis weakens, so the rebound is bearish [1][14]. PVC - The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products. Low valuations support a short - term rebound, but high开工率 and weak domestic demand limit the upside [1][17]. PX - Planned plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Although demand - side plant maintenance is high and inventory is still relatively high, the fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][19]. PTA/PR - High levels of plant maintenance relieve supply - side pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][22]. Ethylene Glycol - Supply recovers, and imports exceed expectations despite low arrival volumes. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][26]. Glass - The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [1][29]. Soda Ash - Although there is some improvement in market sentiment, the fundamentals are weak, with high开工率, ample supply, and high inventory levels. The market is in a sideways pattern [1][31]. Methanol - Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The market remains in a loose state, and the rebound is bearish [1][32]. Urea - Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The short - term trend is bullish, but short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. Asphalt - Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 1.55%, Brent down 0.81%, and SC up 1.04% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease as Iran is willing to destroy weapons - grade uranium in exchange for US sanctions relief. Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June, and CPC exports in May are lower than in April. Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7%. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65 due to factors such as trade wars and new energy impacts. In the short - term, hold bullish spread options, and focus on the range of SC [475 - 490] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,368 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price upside weakens, and LPG fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, import costs decrease. Downstream PDH开工率 drops, and port inventory rises [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil and is bearish. Technically, the upward momentum is insufficient, and short positions should be held. Focus on the range of PG [4290 - 4350] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term sales drive inventory reduction, but high pre - sale costs for traders and resistance from end - users to high - priced raw materials limit price increases. Terminal plastic products have an expectation of rush exports, and the market rebounds, but supply is ample [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of L [7300 - 7400] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 53 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: With the easing of tariff policies, the supply of polypropylene will be re - evaluated. The supply - demand contradiction will not be effectively resolved, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated, but the basis weakens [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of PP [7100 - 7230] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: In January, a new 500,000 - ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and the utilization rate of production capacity is 79%. The decline in real estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally. PVC exports from January to March 2025 increased by 56% year - on - year. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products, and low valuations support a short - term rebound [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of V [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,472 yuan/ton (+68) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX plants are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. There are also changes in supply and demand, inventory, and processing spreads. The fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PX [6820 - 7020] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On May 9, the PTA price in East China was 4,720 yuan/ton (+110), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,582 yuan/ton (+36). The TA9 - 1 spread was 72 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+74) [20][21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA plants are under high - level maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of TA [4820 - 4950] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,300 yuan/ton (+20), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,218 yuan/ton (-4). The EG6 - 9 spread was 35 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis in East China was 82 yuan/ton (+24) [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: Recent plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Arrival volumes are low, but imports exceed expectations. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of EG [4450 - 4600] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, and warehouse receipts increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Although some plants are under maintenance in May, the开工率 remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1320 - 1350] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton (+20), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton (+11). The basis in East China was 170 yuan/ton (-4), and the port basis was 173 yuan/ton (+9) [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The cost support is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of MA [2310 - 2380] [33]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The cost fluctuates slightly, and the short - term trend is bullish [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience short - term fluctuations and adjustments, but the space for significant further adjustment is limited in the long run, and it has high strategic allocation value [1]. - The silver price will likely have wide - range adjustments, and the trading should follow the previous range - bound approach [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions at high levels, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc may rebound in the short term, but there are opportunities to go short in the long term due to increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - The lead price will have a short - term rebound [1]. - The tin price will face pressure during the rebound [1]. - The aluminum price will be relatively strong in the short term [1]. - The nickel price may rebound and then fall, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The industrial silicon price will rebound from a low level, with little change in the fundamentals [1]. - The lithium carbonate price will rebound from a low level in the short term and is still in the bottom - building stage in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold was at 761.72, down 0.78% from the previous level and 3.67% from last week; COMEX gold was at 3185, down 2.14% and 4.33% respectively. The spot prices also declined [2]. - **Core Logic**: With the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks and reduced impact of tariff negotiations, the short - term upward momentum is weakened. In the long run, global asset allocation rebalancing and fiscal - monetary dual - easing trends will support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term gold market may continue to adjust, and long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering. Pay attention to the performance around 740 [4]. Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver was at 8195, down 0.61% from the previous level and 0.69% from last week; COMEX silver was at 32, down 2.07% and 0.61% respectively [2]. - **Core Logic**: The financial and commodity attributes of silver interact, and it is affected by gold and base metals [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may continue to fluctuate within the range of [8020, 8250] in the short term [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% daily. The LME copper and COMEX copper prices had different changes, and the inventory also showed various trends [5]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is troubled, and the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low. There are risks of a high - level decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on previous long positions at high levels, beware of high - level decline risks. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend. The short - term Shanghai copper range is [78000, 79500], and the LME copper range is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22800 yuan/ton, up 1.24% daily. The inventory decreased, and the spot price increased [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply will be looser. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short at high levels near the upper integer - level resistance in the short term. In the long term, take opportunities to go short when the price rises. The Shanghai zinc range is [22500, 23000], and the LME zinc range is [2750, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The LME aluminum closed at 2522.5 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20240 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The inventory decreased [10]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment has eased, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has increased, but the terminal off - season is approaching [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - term long opportunities for Shanghai aluminum at low levels, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. The alumina price will stabilize at a low level [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The LME nickel closed at 15800 dollars/ton, up 0.35%; the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 125230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The stainless - steel price also increased [12]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas environment is favorable for downstream demand. The Philippine's potential mining ban and Indonesia's royalty increase support the nickel price. The domestic inventory is relatively high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The nickel main contract operating range is [121000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 was at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13%. The trading volume decreased [14]. - **Core Logic**: With weak demand, lithium prices are testing cost support. Supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the second - quarter demand is average. Short - term rebound is due to improved market risk preference [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will rebound from a low level, with a range of [64500 - 66700] [15].